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RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please.

 
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RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/5/2010 10:40:38 AM   
janh

 

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Joined: 6/12/2007
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FatR, that assessment is on the mark.  His CV planes are still poor, and it is barely mid-1942, so training of them ain't at it's best yet either.  It is the time for a CV clash now, and even if you loose (not too badly) and think 6 months "repair-time" ahead, you could still come back in proper shape with KB before USN would achieve superior ratios.

The deep-raid might serve the purpose well, but be careful not to stumble into a trap.  Yubari surely has picket ships and subs everywhere.  I wonder whether you could port-strike his fleets in the worst possible moment (how to pass that up, though -- basically when he comes back to refuel and replenish air sorties), assuming you'd know where he bases his CVs and could rush in undetected?

Else, again it is only mid-1942, and Japanese offensive power isn't exhausted yet.  Yubari cannot be strong everywhere, and even the Adamans can be reconquered if starved properly after a sea battle.  If he keeps and builts them up for a couple of more months, though, it may be different.  Yes, you were right that you could simple bind a lot of his Indian and British LCU there without wasting your's, but once he starts getting long-range figthers and 4E bombers in numbers...  he might close Sumatra, parts of Java and Singapore before end of 43.
Also the "recon" advantage he now has with these airfields so far ahead of his MBL and close to your flank is highly valuable. He can always "control" what you move and base around Sumatra, Burma, Java, and beyond Singapore, which could enable him to easily plan amphib operations against the first, and organize resupply convoys without risk of being caught by surprise. Rather the other way around.

< Message edited by janh -- 11/5/2010 10:45:21 AM >

(in reply to FatR)
Post #: 271
RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/5/2010 5:49:05 PM   
FatR

 

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Joined: 10/23/2009
From: St.Petersburg, Russia
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June 8: Naval Battle of Car Nicobar And Other Developments

Long Lances! The report probably will speak louder than words:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Car Nicobar at 45,62, Range 6,000 Yards
Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
BB Haruna
CA Takao, Shell hits 3
CA Suzuya, Shell hits 6, on fire
DD Hayashio, Shell hits 1
DD Hatsushima
DD Hatsuyuki, Shell hits 1
DD Yayoi, Shell hits 3, on fire
DD Matsukaze, Shell hits 1

Allied Ships
CA Salt Lake City, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
CA Vincennes, Shell hits 2, on fire
CL Leander, Shell hits 8
CL Achilles, Shell hits 2, on fire
CLAA Atlanta
CL Raleigh
CL Trenton, Shell hits 2, heavy fires
DD Conyngham
DD Preston
DD Porter
DD Nestor, Shell hits 1

Reduced sighting due to 28% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Overcast Conditions and 28% moonlight: 8,000 yards
Range closes to 16,000 yards...
Range closes to 10,000 yards...
Range closes to 6,000 yards...
CONTACT: Japanese lookouts spot Allied task force at 6,000 yards
Japanese open fire on surprised Allied ships at 6,000 yards
BB Haruna fires at CL Leander at 6,000 yards
CA Salt Lake City sunk by CA Takao at 6,000 yards

Judging by sinking sounds and 4 Seagulls listed as destroyed on ground, Trenton also went under. Takao did 90% of serious damage, including the opening Long Lance salvo and penetrating hits on Trenton, while Haruna mostly hanged in the back and scored only non-penetrating hits with secondary armament. Otherwise the battle developed almost perfectly, with the inital surprise salvos at short range and breakaway to distances where most of the Allied guns were unable to score penetrating hits later during following gunnery rounds.

The Japanese TF retreated in timely manner. Damage to the ships:



Planning Overwhelming! I also decided to launch a deliberate attack at Lahaina in hopes of messing up the defenders before the new landing. And looks like I won't need a new landing, after all:

Ground combat at Lahaina (182,108)
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 67649 troops, 713 guns, 288 vehicles, Assault Value = 2529
Defending force 26296 troops, 541 guns, 984 vehicles, Assault Value = 616
Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 4
Japanese adjusted assault: 3403
Allied adjusted defense: 1567
Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 4)
Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 4

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
5823 casualties reported
Squads: 63 destroyed, 410 disabled
Non Combat: 29 destroyed, 323 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 66 disabled
Guns lost 18 (1 destroyed, 17 disabled)
Vehicles lost 32 (6 destroyed, 26 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1253 casualties reported
Squads: 40 destroyed, 28 disabled
Non Combat: 15 destroyed, 135 disabled
Engineers: 12 destroyed, 25 disabled
Vehicles lost 64 (8 destroyed, 56 disabled)
Units destroyed 2

Assaulting units:
40th Brigade
17th Infantry Regiment
38th Division
18th Division
77th Infantry Regiment
48th Division
24th Infantry Regiment
5th Ind. Engineer Regiment
4th Division
20th Engineer Regiment
27th Electric Engineer Regiment
16th Infantry Regiment
5th Division
65th Naval Guard Unit
23rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
2nd Marine Regiment
2nd Marine Raider Battalion
276th Coastal Artillery Battalion
54th Coastal Artillery Regiment
Americal Infantry Division
2nd USMC Engineer Regiment
298th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
2nd USMC Tank Battalion
102nd USN Base Force
118th USAAF Base Force
208th Coast AA Regiment
197th Coast AA Regiment
2nd USMC Field Artillery Battalion
46th Construction Regiment
111th USN Base Force
811th Engineer Aviation Battalion
43rd Construction Regiment
223rd Field Artillery Battalion

Loss ratio still sucks, but with such adjusted AV we will be able to just barrel through the defences, ignoring losses, and force a swift capitulation. What could have made such a massive difference with the siege of Hilo, you might ask? Most likely 25th Army HQ and Southern Army HQ both sitting on Hawaii, fully prepared for Lahaina.

Other News: Chinese seem to be moving from the north to deblocade Sian. They are welcome to try, I think.

Yubari also tried guilttripping me for my evil and unhistorical skipbombing ways. With all due respect, no. NabB=fail, unless the plane in question is a naval torpedo bomber, or you can drop 8-10 bombs per plane. In RL early-war Betty crews were able to hit moving warships with level bombing attacks, in AE this possibility seems to be practically nonexistent, and combined with greater vulnerability of Japanese bombers this leaves me with little choice. While I feel I owe him somewhat for my unsportsmanlike behavior during the crisis point of Hawaii campaign, when the Allied surprise daylight raid and night bombing attacks destroyed over 130 Zeros on ground; sticking to the ineffective historical ways even though they were not stipulated by initial houserules and are not an engine deficiency exploit, like sending torpedo-carrying Betties to approach at their top altitude, which some Allied carrier fighters, most notably F4F-4, cannot reach, is too big of a favor. Also, I don't believe that having Japanese aviation with enough bite to make Allies a bit more reluctant to operate near major Japanese bases has a potential to warp the game ahistorically (like unlimited stratbombing early in the game, which I offered to forbid after the start in large part because it had a potential to turn China into cakewalk), but rather the opposite. So, if Yubari intends to avoid skipbombing until 1943, as ahistorical, even if I don't, that's very chivalrous, but I will stick to my plans.


Attachment (1)

< Message edited by FatR -- 11/6/2010 12:27:22 AM >

(in reply to janh)
Post #: 272
RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/8/2010 2:44:46 PM   
FatR

 

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From: St.Petersburg, Russia
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June 9-10, 1942

Not a lot of serious action. Although we're likely to see a huge battle in China, as the Chinese forces attempt to deblocade Sian, soon enough.

Andamans: IJN intelligence cannot decide if CL Trenton is sunk or not. She was spotted on 9th, but appeared on the sunk list again the next day. Allied aviation had withdrawn once again.

Eastern DEI: Port Hedland was taken against no real resistance, thuse establishing my tripwire against serious attempts to assault DEI through Australia.

Aleutians: The invasion force approaches Adak, which seems to be garrizoned lightly enough (2 units) to attempt a landing there, with my prepared regiment. CVE Unyo with undertrained and non-resizeable 2nd Ku aboard covers my surface units - hopefully, this will serve to mislead Yubari about deployment of my carrier force.

Hawaii: I don't need more troops at Lahaina, but I might need more supply. Planes do not deliver enough, and the barge TF was still decimated by CD fire. Don't know what purpose this type of TFs even serves. A landing craft TF can at least deliver some meanigful load in one go.

< Message edited by FatR -- 11/10/2010 1:59:38 PM >

(in reply to FatR)
Post #: 273
RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/10/2010 4:14:56 PM   
FatR

 

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Joined: 10/23/2009
From: St.Petersburg, Russia
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June 11-12: Knife's Edge

KB: Has sailed. KB-1 and KB-2 joined forces south of Soerabaja, escaping any contacts with subs so far. Now they will sweep into Indian Ocean.

The force consists of:

Leading SCTF: CA Mogami, DDx1
KB-1: CV Kaga, CV Shokaku, CV Zuikaku, CV Soryu, CV Hiryu, CVL Ryujo, CS Chiyoda, BB Kongo, BB Hiei, CA Tone, CA Haguro, DDx9, 432 carrier aircraft.
KB-2: CV Hiyo, CVL Shoho, CVL Zuiho, CVL Nisshin, CVL Hosho, CVL Taiyo, BB Yamato, CA Myoko, CA Nachi, CA Ashigara, DDx9, 209 carrier aircraft. Probably I should shift Ryujo here, to improve plane coordination.

I'm using Myokos to run with carriers because due to a recently found scenario bug they won't have any belt armor until their upgrade in November of 1942. Yamato is with KB-2 because Kongos are useful for fast raider and bombardment TFs, and because yet another recently-found problem (hard cap on the weight of ammo that can be reloaded in one turn) prevents her from reloading her front battery at the moment. At least this, I think, can be fixed on the fly.


Aleutians: Landing on Adak goes without meaningful resistance (only a EAB unit and an artillery regiment are found there), and the island will fall tomorrow. My SCTF failed to intercept ships running away from the harbor, though. There was a reported encounter... and then nothing.

Whether Aleuitians will also remain only a foreground for the real defense, or whether I'll advance to Umnak and Dutch Harbor and turn them into a solid part of my perimeter will really depend on events on the other fronts.


Hawaii: Japanese attacked again at Lahaina. Men losses were brutal, squad losses not really. Even with the supply shortage my troops easily achieved 2:1 and forts were reduced to 3. Lahaina is obviously toast and I'm on the edge about whether I should try landing more supply from real xAKs, losing more ships in the process. Flying boats and even level bombers successfully drop some supplies at the moment, and I can send more by barges. Of course, barges die alot in the process (it is ridiculous how subs always manage to shoot some up on the surface, despite the hex being chocked with Japanese surface combatants and ASW), but it is not like they are good for anything else.


China: The main event was the Chinese breakthrough from Sian. Yubari probably will regret not sending the entire garrizon out:

Ground combat at 83,40
Allied Shock attack
Attacking force 178258 troops, 1076 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 8944
Defending force 19648 troops, 104 guns, 572 vehicles, Assault Value = 888
Allied adjusted assault: 777
Japanese adjusted defense: 515
Allied assault odds: 1 to 1
Combat modifiers
Defender: experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-), supply(-)

Japanese ground losses:
4696 casualties reported
Squads: 16 destroyed, 407 disabled
Non Combat: 38 destroyed, 419 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 17 disabled
Vehicles lost 217 (41 destroyed, 176 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
11917 casualties reported
Squads: 36 destroyed, 1120 disabled
Non Combat: 44 destroyed, 509 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 25 disabled

Assaulting units:
1st Chinese Corps
42nd Chinese Corps
93rd Chinese Corps
57th Chinese Corps
17th Chinese Corps
4th Chinese Cavalry Corps
81st Chinese Corps
16th Chinese Corps
19th Chinese Corps
36th Chinese Corps
59th Chinese Corps
41st Chinese Corps
11th Chinese Corps
34th Chinese Corps
76th Chinese Corps
95th Chinese Corps
8th Route Army
39th Chinese Corps
3rd Prov Chinese Corps
38th Chinese Corps
66th Chinese Corps
17th Group Army
Red Chinese Army
2nd War Area
1st War Area
1st Artillery Regiment
3rd Heavy Mortar Regiment
56th AT Gun Regiment

Defending units:
9th Ind.Mixed Brigade
15th Tank Regiment
15th Ind.Mixed Brigade
12th Tank Regiment
3rd Tank Regiment
8th Recon Regiment
9th Tank Regiment
5th Tank Regiment
11th Indpt Infantry Regiment

I got some good air raids in during this turn, disrupting the enemy, but my supplies somehow failed to reach the front in time - by comparison, at the moment all the units around are in the white. I don't know how the Chinese managed to get an edge in experience during the odds calculation. None of my units had less than 55. Over 3000 Japanese AV are about to cross into the hex. If this will not trigger a river crossing shock attack, Chinese are practically screwed, but if it will, the battle might yet turn against me. I hope that the massive airstrikes can decide the outcome of this, but with weather in China being bad (as usual), the game might decide to shaft me here.

(in reply to FatR)
Post #: 274
RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/12/2010 11:22:28 AM   
FatR

 

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Joined: 10/23/2009
From: St.Petersburg, Russia
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June 13, 1942: Chinese Rivers Run Red

The dreaded river crossing shock attack north of Sian happened after all, and while the combat results were not that bad according to the report (beneficial to the Japanese in the long term, in fact, assuming my army is not routed), my combined AV dropped to slightly below 3k, more than the report indicates. Or maybe that's an adjustment due to temporary lack of supply after the battle.

Ground combat at 83,40
Japanese Shock attack
Attacking force 99574 troops, 848 guns, 202 vehicles, Assault Value = 3765
Defending force 243098 troops, 1466 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 8027
Japanese adjusted assault: 1583
Allied adjusted defense: 1170
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1
Combat modifiers
Defender: disruption(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
12357 casualties reported
Squads: 51 destroyed, 452 disabled
Non Combat: 20 destroyed, 962 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 112 disabled
Vehicles lost 57 (2 destroyed, 55 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
12892 casualties reported
Squads: 59 destroyed, 472 disabled
Non Combat: 43 destroyed, 935 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 15 disabled
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Assaulting units:
3rd Tank Regiment
8th Recon Regiment
37th Division
9th Tank Regiment
9th Ind.Mixed Brigade
36th Division
3rd Division
15th Tank Regiment
12th Tank Regiment
110th Division
5th Tank Regiment
35th Division
41st Division
6th Division
15th Ind.Mixed Brigade
11th Indpt Infantry Regiment
China Expeditionary Army
12th Army
North China Area Army
Mongol Garrison Army
NCPC Army

Defending units:
38th Chinese Corps
39th Chinese Corps
93rd Chinese Corps
36th Chinese Corps
8th Route Army
59th Chinese Corps
4th Chinese Cavalry Corps
17th Chinese Corps
19th Chinese Corps
76th Chinese Corps
1st Chinese Corps
81st Chinese Corps
95th Chinese Corps
11th Chinese Corps
3rd Prov Chinese Corps
16th Chinese Corps
34th Chinese Corps
42nd Chinese Corps
57th Chinese Corps
41st Chinese Corps
66th Chinese Corps
Red Chinese Army
1st Artillery Regiment
17th Group Army
1st War Area
3rd Heavy Mortar Regiment
2nd War Area
56th AT Gun Regiment

Weather actually decided to be nice, for a change. So Japanese aviation danced on the enemy's heads. This is the biggest raid of the day:

Morning Air attack on 38th Chinese Corps, at 83,40
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid spotted at 40 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-Ic Sally x 21
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 13
Ki-30 Ann x 50
Ki-32 Mary x 23
Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 8
Ki-48-Ib Lily x 6
Ki-49-Ia Helen x 48

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-49-Ia Helen: 1 damaged

Allied ground losses:
585 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 49 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 44 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Guns lost 11 (1 destroyed, 10 disabled)

At this rate, unless Yubari manages to pushes my army out right the next turn, even the Yellow Horde will be swiftly reduced to uselessness by such attacks. While Japanese don't have really good ground-pounder bombers, like Wellingtons, at least they can compensate this by sheer numbers at the moment.


Adak Island: Captured. Japanese troops found only vehicles and guns there, all of the American men were evacuated by Catalinas. Zeros from Unyo intercepted a few of these, but failed to shoot down any.

(in reply to FatR)
Post #: 275
RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/14/2010 4:29:38 PM   
FatR

 

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Joined: 10/23/2009
From: St.Petersburg, Russia
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I'm short on time due to starting a new PBEM and being busy at work, so here's only main news for the last few days.

- Catalinas spotted Mini-KB about 12 hexes south from Cocos Island. F#$%. There goes any hope for surprise. So, I must resort to just counter-counter-invading Trinkat with a large amphibious force and seeing if anyone shows up to contest. I've started preparing for retaking Port Blair.

- The battle north of Sian ended in disaster with a failed shock attack. I even fear a possibility of a rout, which will put the entire Chinese front on the brink. The best part of my bomber force refused to fly for three or four days in a row, and this no doubt contributed to the result.

- Allies are going for Horn Island (again?). I have 3-4 more days to prepare a response, but now Yubari has a fighter airfield in range...

- My subs are only good as (increasingly suicide) recons. My ASW is worthless.

(in reply to FatR)
Post #: 276
RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/15/2010 4:56:50 AM   
bigred


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FatR, why are you researching 24 Emily -L trans?

(in reply to FatR)
Post #: 277
RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/15/2010 10:21:34 AM   
FatR

 

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Joined: 10/23/2009
From: St.Petersburg, Russia
Status: offline
Researching them probably was a mistake, this will hardly accelerate the plane. But I want a powerful airlift capability late in the game. Already my transports play a significant role with possible strategic impact, resupplying troops at Lahaina, and - while it is not as noticeable - helping with emergency troop movements and outlying garrizons' resupply elsewhere.

Late in the game, when Allied aviation will become dominant, air transport will play the key role in reinforcing, supplying and evacuating forward garrizons (barges carry very small amount of supplies.

< Message edited by FatR -- 11/15/2010 10:23:49 AM >

(in reply to bigred)
Post #: 278
RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/15/2010 2:44:29 PM   
FatR

 

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From: St.Petersburg, Russia
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And on the last turn (June 17th) I somehow pressed "Ground Attack" instead of "Sweep" for my Oscars at Victoria Point while in hurry to make the turn. 59 planes and 46 pilots were lost, because for whatever reason the fighters also decided to strafe instead of bombing from 15k. I need to avoid letting frustration and fixation on the events that seem the most important get into my head. This might not have happened, had I worried less about the Sian front. And also I need a brief timeout at least until the new PBEM starts rolling.

Well, in positive news, Yubari refused to counterattack my forces. In fact, most of his army marched north. I wonder what was the reason of this movement. Terrain does not allow to outflank and cut off my troops from there. So, looking at things positively, at least there is no strategic-scale disaster in China. Two divisions and an independent brigade got nearly their entire infantry component disabled, but they will recover.

< Message edited by FatR -- 11/15/2010 3:03:52 PM >

(in reply to FatR)
Post #: 279
RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/18/2010 1:39:42 AM   
FatR

 

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Joined: 10/23/2009
From: St.Petersburg, Russia
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I'm still majorly busy, so still only a briefest update

On June 18th a whole lot of Allied ships materialized as a scattered gaggle around Andamans, mostly Trinkat. If KB moved properly, I would have been jumping with joy. Unfortunately, the bright idea of making carriers following a SCTF to prevent reaction resulted in them falling like 15 hexes behind the point where they should have been and remaining within range of Cocos Island, from which Yubari apparently flies Catalinas (although yet unspotted). This is horrible, but I should have directed every TF by hand once I spotted problems with following for the first time several turns ago. I didn't and Yubari likely will enjoy his rewards. Or hopefully lose many of his ships to LBA unless he brings carriers to provide cover again.

On the same day Allied TFs moving towards Horn Island mostly fell off Nav Search radar. Either I got unlucky, or that was a feint, or Yubari decided to back off after seeing that I still have Betties around.

< Message edited by FatR -- 11/18/2010 1:40:56 AM >

(in reply to FatR)
Post #: 280
RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/18/2010 4:53:36 PM   
FatR

 

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From: St.Petersburg, Russia
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June 19th, 1942

1. Allied carrier fleet appeared in full force at Andamans. A ton of my planes got shot down. More got destroyed on ground, when Allies naval-bombarded Victoria Point. I got hits on 3-5 transports, including probably fatal ones on 2-3, but not nearly enough to compensate loss of over 120 planes in a turn for about 30 Allied ones. Our air loss gap is almost 700 planes by now.

One lesson to be learned though, is that level bombers better should attack from 1k than 100 feet. At 100 feet they often strafe, instead of dropping bombs.

2. Worse still, the night torpedo attack squadron sent from Victoria Point to intercept the Allied fleet somehow missed the bombardment TF, carriers that were within range, and so on. It probably did not enter their exact hexes and did not react to Allied fleets around. Even though they sometimes do. Moreover, it failed to return to Victoria Point, despite nominally having both fuel and movement hexes to do so. CLs Kitakami and Oi ran out of fuel even though they should have had enough. And both were sunk by Allied carrier planes.

3. KBs are undetected. That's good. They didn't make as much progress as they should again, for some reason. That's bad. Maybe cruise speed instead of mission speed was responsible. They will take 4 days to get into intercept position, assuming no further slowdown. That's very bad. Allies are unlikely to linger long enough.

To be honest, I'm really disheartened by things falling apart for reasons I can't even identify. This, plus rotten luck I generally had in this game, plus newly-revealed bugs of the scenario, in addition to the old bugs, that really stretch my forces, are more demoralizing than the situation warrants (the situation is bad, as Allies are likely to be very entrenched in Andamans by the moment I can muster a counterattack against anything save Trinkat, and even Trinkat, for which I prepared to load as soon as KB makes its move, no longer will be an easy target, and attrition rate is way unfarorable for me, but their entire strategy hinges on continuing and unopposed commitment of their carrier fleet, so a turnaround is quite possible).


< Message edited by FatR -- 11/18/2010 4:56:08 PM >

(in reply to FatR)
Post #: 281
RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/18/2010 7:13:08 PM   
FatR

 

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Joined: 10/23/2009
From: St.Petersburg, Russia
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But enough self-pity. In truth, while dice don't seem to like me, most of my problems stem from lack of experience with the defensive phase of the game (AI sort of failed to get me there before I got bored every time). The rest are from flaws in my strategy, which I'll list here some time later, preferably after Itdepends won't be able to read my strategy in my new PBEM against him from them. Yubari's feint at Solomons (although AVD McFarland for some reason failed to fall back and was sunk by my light squadron today) hardly contributed anything, as airfields around the region were overstacked already.

What I need to do to fix the sutuation (the list is not full):

1)Completely remove IJNAF from the theater, aside from maybe some Zeros and leave everything to IJAAF. The reason for this is, IJAAF has pilots up the wazoo, and IJNAF is struggling to fill the units already. Most of the Betty force will be stationed on Hawaii and take counterinvasion duties from the shadow of KB. Where most of them will engage in retraining. The rest will be placed in Solomons. The times for non-massed use of Betties are clearly in the past. In fact, I'm unimpressed with their performance against any sort of resistance anyway. Every success against enemy shipping I had at Andamans was due to skipbombing attacks (with much inferior crews, I might add), all torpedoes went astray.

2)In fact, operations at Hawaii will enter the semi-final stage within a week, when Lahaina inevitably falls. After this, my infantry units will enter a three-month period of preparing for Pearl. I expect dire losses there, but I think I can afford the shipping expenditure. Sallies will bomb Pearl all the time. Most of my surface assets will withdraw for a time. So will a part of transport fleet, carrying some construction and support units to Solomons, Eastern DEI area and even the Indian front on the way.

3)Unless I decisively lose the carrier battle in the Indian ocean (in which case Japan is very much boned, and the only hope is temporarily containing Allies), counterinvasions will be on the table. Yubari invested all-out in Andamans, other regions are temporarily safe. Yet still, his forces will be spread between four or five islands. He cannot be strong everywhere. Assuming the sea superiority is reestablished, I can bring three divisions to the table, without leaving Burma unprotected. Unfortunately, I lack assault shipping at the moment. In 20 days DEI will be swimming in AKs and AK-ts, but right now I can manage only a limited counterinvasion.

Port Blair and Little Andaman are probably well-fortified already, but souther islands should be suppressed by aviation whenever I can, to prevent them from being fortified. The main Allied airfields in the theatre are quite far from them at the moment, so this should be possible for a brief period of time before the counterattack.

Also, I'll need to take Cocos at some time.


< Message edited by FatR -- 11/19/2010 3:04:55 AM >

(in reply to FatR)
Post #: 282
RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/18/2010 8:57:28 PM   
FatR

 

Posts: 2522
Joined: 10/23/2009
From: St.Petersburg, Russia
Status: offline
Flak Issues

Just because I finally have some free time: either American land AAA (or, maybe, land-based AAA as a whole) might be borked under the current patch. Or the rest of the Allied AAA might be unintentionally overpowered. After the previous turn, we did some tests with low-flying fighters at Hawaii, and although they did not attack at 100 feet, instead opting for 2-6k, losses were quite slim, 2-3 Zeros out of over 60 attacking planes. Just no comparison with massacre caused by British batteries. My own flak units in Hawaii, despite being the best equipped Japanese units out there, performed miserably as well, and, AFAIK, failed to shoot down anything but recon planes.


Great AK Conversion Season

As I mentioned above, right now I'm short on assault shipping. That's because I took some losses at Hawaii, and many of my best transports are still there after the Lahaina landing. I'm currently converting the great majority of Yusen and Kyushu xAKs to AKs. This will very significantly improve my amphibious capabilities. In return, Lima-class xAKs, which are now useless for amphibious operations, are returned to full cargo capacity.


Subwars

My subs are now pretty useless for anything, except sometimes spotting the enemy taskforces. Over last two weeks I has about a dozen contacts, almost always with escorts, but also a good shot at a CA, with zero hits. In return, another RO-boat got sunk by a passing convoy. I'm pondering complete shutdown of regular anti-convoy operations, given rarity of intercepts and my subs' utter inability to get past escorts, and concentrating all subs on protecting Andamans.

By comparison, Allied subs can operate in shallow water, covered by experienced (60+ ASW and LowN) air ASW and hunter-killer TFs almost with impunity. Only about 20% of contacts even there result in more than a single near miss.

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RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/19/2010 10:55:54 AM   
Itdepends

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: FatR
The rest are from flaws in my strategy, which I'll list here some time later, preferably after Itdepends won't be able to read my strategy in my new PBEM against him from them.


Curses! Foiled again

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RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/19/2010 12:43:03 PM   
FatR

 

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Although I can name two mistakes not immediately relevant to the early game:

- While I realized that Hawaii aren't likely to be vigorously defended in the middle of April (in-game time), I did not analyze with sufficient honesty what that meant. As a result, the exact option chosen by Yubari was the one I overlooked as the least dangerous, discounting long-term implications. As a result, my esteemed opponent strategically outmaneuvered me and kept doing so for a time, applying his whole strength against my weaker forces. I managed to exact some toll, but my losses are heavier in both comparative and absoluite terms.

- I was too slow to react and did not adapt to the situation fast enough. This led to a series of tactical defeats that by the current moment escalated into strategic damage comparable, in some areas, to that of the Solomons campaign. In particular, half of my naval bomber aviation is demolished.

< Message edited by FatR -- 11/19/2010 12:46:39 PM >

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RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/19/2010 8:00:26 PM   
FatR

 

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June 20th, 1942

Lost two more DDs (Natshushio and Murakumo) from the ill-fated Victoria Point torpedo squadron this turn. One was damaged the day before, and I forgot to withdraw the one that was detached to guard her.

Also, attempts to continue sweeping Trinkat, in hopes of attriting Allied carrier planes ended in one combat lost badly. My fighter aviation needs to regroup and replenish its numbers now.

Allies naval bombarded Victoria Point again, and Tavoy as well (clearly reloading ammo somewhere in Andamans). DP guns in Special Base Forces are utterly ineffective at preventing that. Both bases are totalled.

KBs advanced nicely and will be out of probable detection range from Cocos by the next day. If Allies linger just for one more day, I might try a full speed run into an intercept position. If they linger for two, getting at least some convoys is a near-certainty.


Behind the Lines

That's where main events happened, though. Checking all rear areas allowed me to find 3 AF units, one base force and a couple of engineer companies to be sent towards the Andamans front. This will leave Eastern DEI rather bare, but I believe that the threat there should be minimal at the moment. Allies seem to be wholly committed to Andamans

Also, following the same logic, nearly all major infantry units on theatre, except for 65th Brigade, which still needs R&R, will be devoted to either a counterattack or defense in the Andaman theatre. 12th Division, which soon will be freed from Manchukuo, will supplement them.

In addition, I've started moving some contruction units out of Hawaii and flew one off Zero kokutais out of there. I believe I can keep about two IJNAF fighter units - crewed witn new, armored A6M3b, and flying mostly defensive missions - staffed with pilots for a continous struggle.

Subs from all across the Pacific are being moved to Singapore en masse. Some of the surface assets will leave Hawaii soon enough as well.

I pondered expanding Oscar production for a long time, and decided not to. My pilot reserve is sizeable but not endless, and having too many fighters will make me less disciplined about expending it, while I need to be more careful.


About the Clock...

I must commend Yubari for the bravery of his early-game attack. We'll see how this turn out in the end yet, but ultimately, mid-1942 assault, if you can see a weak point in Japanese defences, that allows you to entrench, is a strong strategy. While it is true, that the clock is ticking for Japanese, it is also ticking for the Allies. The longer they wait, the stronger resistance they will meet, and the Japanese perimeter is at its most vulnerable when the Empire still devotes its forces to offensive operations. Later in the game, when all regions are bristling with airbases and forts, Allied players who ceded the initiative for too long seem have hard time pushing through even with all of their power.

< Message edited by FatR -- 11/19/2010 8:08:17 PM >

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RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/19/2010 10:04:46 PM   
FatR

 

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June 21, 1942

Allies are falling back from Andamans, so a successful intercept by KB seems unlikely. However, I-154 partially redeemed my previous bad luck by torpedoing Enterprise. Only one hit (why it is always one hit whenever something valuable is in the crosshairs?), but a fuel storage explosion caused "fires" in the report. The intercept is still not very possible (see the map below, KBs are at the very bottom), as Mini-KB has reduced full speed, but I'll try. Also, Yubari should start feeling shipyard problems by now. Colombo is the only yard in the whole Indian Ocean that can repair CVs at all (I'm meanwhile expanding repair shipyards at Singapore and Soerabaja 10-20k of supplies is seriously no big cost for ability to repair everything straight at the theatre).

The whole operation illustrates the importance of attention to details. Had I paid more attention to whether my TFs move as intended or not, this would have been a dire situation for Allies indeed.

Also, I wonder what the heck Allied ships are doing at Trinkat. Recon shows troops disappearing from the island, instead of landing there.

Meanwhile, 4Es sprang to action over New Guinea, causing heavy damage to Port Moresby and busting 4 Rufes on ground.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by FatR -- 11/19/2010 10:09:33 PM >

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RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/20/2010 3:27:18 PM   
janh

 

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If you think the report true, and it likely that Enterprise will first head for Colombo, could you sneak your two CV TFs up there for an ambush?  Risky, so far from your bases and close to his, but maybe you can catch Yubari at the wrong moment when he is about to send them into port?

How bad have the recent air battles for the Adamans has been?  Yubari truly has turned these islands into his new "Hawaii chain" now, and probably is shifting troops around or withdrawing the assault divisions.  He really played that one very skilled -- used the occasion due to your forces being bound in Hawaii, and moved with a strongly focused effort, without any distractions but with all forces he could muster. 

If you can keep KB undetected and create an ambush that would disable his CV fleet (for 3-6 months?)  then you might get a chance to slowly retake the Adamans.  But this must also be a very focused, determined effort.  But you surely need to scrape together 3-6 divisions to assault these islands, and you might be facing heavy air battles.  Alternatively, you could start to fortify anything that Yubari might attack next from his new jump-point, most likely northern or central Sumatra.


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RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/20/2010 3:41:14 PM   
FatR

 

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I have never seen FOW completely misreporting combat encounters, except as a bug. Number of hits, maybe, but in this case it can only go up. Of course I'll try catching his fleet in the sea. Assuming I can catch his fleet before it reaches Colombo, this is my best time for an early carrier battle.

As about infantry, I can use these units in my counterattack:

-21st Division (Singapore), 90% combat-ready, high experience
-56th Division (Sabang), 90% combat-ready, medium-high experience
-12th Division (will move from Korea), medium experience, but very good TOE
-Imperial Guards Brigade (Oosthaven, will move out by ship soon), 85% combat-ready, high experience
-4th Brigade (will move from Hong Kong), high experience
-2 intact regiment-sized units, most of the Southern Army's artillery, a bunch of tank regiments.

-33rd Division, Imperial Guards and elements of 55th are in Burma. I don't want to commit them needlessly, but if Yubari will remain passive on ground, I can use 33rd in the assault.

< Message edited by FatR -- 11/20/2010 3:55:06 PM >

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Post #: 289
RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/21/2010 12:04:35 PM   
FatR

 

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June 22, 1942

Allied fleets are falling back, without further loss, despite the attempts of my subs to harry them. Chances for intercept seem slim, particularly as some Allied subs got spotted by Jakes today far away from mainland, so Yubari should know I'm coming.

Enterprise is certainly damaged, judging by Yubari's email and appearing on the sunk ships' list during this turn, which means that her float damage worsened.

< Message edited by FatR -- 11/21/2010 12:05:27 PM >

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Post #: 290
RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/23/2010 5:32:30 PM   
FatR

 

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Late evening of June 23th: The Big Question

The screenshot below pretty much says it all. Enterprise must be damaged badly indeed, with speed of no more than 1-2 hexes for Allied carriers to get only that far.

And the question is: should I pursue the battle today? There is practically no chance to engage totally outside of the threat zone of Allied LBA, but I might try to position KBs outside of fighter cover range - with a full speed run - and hope, from speed demonstrated by Allied TFs, that they will be too far from Trincomalee for serious LRCAP. A lot of Allied fighter aviation still is on Andamans, so they are likely will be higly fatigued after the flight back to Ceilon as well.

I'm uncertain about seeking battle in this situation, because moving to my intercept hex of choice, marked on the map by circle, will require moving at full speed. Computer screwed me over in such situations way too often, and if KBs drift apart, this migh produce a huge defeat.

EDIT: If Allies are moving to Trincomalee it is theoretically possible to launch a strike from the farthest extent of normal speed movement, marked on the map by square. The fat red line shows the distance for a normal airstrike, the thin red line - for an airstrike with Vals at extended range (not desirable).

EDIT2: For comparison, I added to the map the position of Allied carriers after the attack on Enterprise. Yup, either two-hex speed or a trap. The destination is almost certainly Trincomalee.

It is also possible, that Yubari is baiting me, pretending, that the Big E is wounded more seriously than she is.






Attachment (1)

< Message edited by FatR -- 11/23/2010 5:56:28 PM >

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RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/23/2010 8:32:55 PM   
janh

 

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Tough call, indeed somewhat risky -- but just as anything that can give a big reward, it doesn't come cheap.  My decision would likely be only based on what other enemy CV do you suspect in that force, and whether your have sufficient backup in terms of BB and CA following?   There might be quite a few RN and USN BB's around.

The catch even with a successful encounter might be that you will perhaps only sink a few CV/CVL, whereas any cripples you might produce have a good chance to make it into nearby Trincomalee -- the retreat path is quite short in contrast to yours.   So in case of a strike, one should be serious enough about it and be ready to follow any cripples into LBA range, and even port-strike Ceylon's major ports.  Those are quite some risks/drawbacks, but then again it is June 42, and this is one of the rare occasions where you might "design" the battle conditions in your favor.  Plus, there is no nasty Hellcats and and tons of CVL/CVE in the arithmetic yet, so maybe the risk that is outweighed many times by the potential gains?  Clearly if you'd win that clear-cut, you would likely regain the control over the Adamans AO, and would win the time necessary to isolate, starve and retake those islands.  Besides delaying any further allied amphib operations.  I am biased towards attempting it...


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RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/23/2010 8:46:14 PM   
FatR

 

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I expect 5 USN CVs (all except Wasp, which shouldn't have had enough time to arrive at the theater) and 2 RN CVs to be present. Americans still fly Devastators - unless Yubari predicts my move (and KBs are unspotted at the moment), I might try to play on their short range.

As about surface assets, I have strong escorts, but not much beyond that. The closest large force, a DD flotilla, is at Sabang.

I think that even a draw at this point will seal the Andamans campaign in my favor. Any additional damaged Allied carriers must be sent off-map to avoid repair at Colombo taking forever.

However, if Yubari expects me coming, he might just sacrifice some surface assets to soak raids and maybe even intercept KBs. This can be more dangerous than any possible LBA support. That's one reason why I'm hesitant.

< Message edited by FatR -- 11/23/2010 8:51:51 PM >

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RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/23/2010 8:52:17 PM   
vaned74

 

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Hmm. This is a tough call - as an all the time japanese player I would say though that there is no time like the present to for an engagement. Even if you net one confirmed sink of an Allied carrier and you take some damage, it is probably worth it.

Some questions:
1) can you full speed sprint your subs up ahead of the Big E?

2) if you don't sink the enterprise before she makes port, then you can assume almost certainly it is getting back into the fight; Allied damage control is very good.

3) where are the other US and Brit CVs? Are they in the same hex as Enterprise providing cover?

4) Is it possible the other Allied CVs would take up position south, south west of Enterprise TF? This would be the logical 'cover' position I would take. If so, one could claim a small tactical victory by pursuing Enterprise and sinking her from a position to her south east - this puts you in range of the Andamans but, how much/how effective are fatigued fighter units with Allied LBA going to be against your fleet with good CAP. I believe Allied LBA bombers, lacking torpedos, are not so good against naval ships - just as Japanese Nells & Betties are really only very effective with torpedo arms. Allied torpedo planes at this stage in the war are few and short legged.

Just some thoughts. Happy Hunting!

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RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/23/2010 8:57:26 PM   
FatR

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: vaned74

Some questions:
1) can you full speed sprint your subs up ahead of the Big E?

Yes, some of them.

quote:

ORIGINAL: vaned74
3) where are the other US and Brit CVs? Are they in the same hex as Enterprise providing cover?

Yes. I see three carrier TFs. A ton of Dauntlesses flew ASW this turn, sinking one of RO-boats (over the last two turns, they took shots at two cruisers and missed entirely both times). This also gives me a bit of incentive to attack - each DB that hunts subs is a DB that is not available for airtrikes against my ships.

quote:

ORIGINAL: vaned74
4) Is it possible the other Allied CVs would take up position south, south west of Enterprise TF?

If Yubari expects the attack this exact turn.

quote:

ORIGINAL: vaned74
This would be the logical 'cover' position I would take. If so, one could claim a small tactical victory by pursuing Enterprise and sinking her from a position to her south east - this puts you in range of the Andamans but, how much/how effective are fatigued fighter units with Allied LBA going to be against your fleet with good CAP.

Not enough fuel for maneuvers like this.


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RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/23/2010 9:37:23 PM   
crsutton


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Allied carrier forces will never be any weaker than they are now. They just get stronger as time passes. Even trading carriers at this point in the game work to Japan's advantage.

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Post #: 296
RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/23/2010 10:05:48 PM   
pat.casey

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Allied carrier forces will never be any weaker than they are now. They just get stronger as time passes. Even trading carriers at this point in the game work to Japan's advantage.


I'm not sure a flat out trade helps japan in this circumstance.

If the allies have 6 carriers and japan has 10 right now, that's a 6:10 ratio.

Assume the allies build 10 more next year and japan builds 2.

With a trade:
Start 6:10
Do trade: 0:4
After Build: 10:6 -> allies are in good shape

W/o a trade:
Start 6:10
After Build: 16:12/8:6 -> japan is in relatively better shape

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RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/23/2010 10:16:47 PM   
FatR

 

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I'm getting 9 CVs in 1943. Shokaku-kais of this mod and Unryus. Besides, it's better to deal with renewed Allied advance in a year, than to deal with it right now.

What also worries me, though, is that Allied carrier fleet will be in 5 hexes of Trincomalee before the attack. Far from ideal for LRCAP, but at least some planes will be able to cover them.

Still, I'll probably try intercept. Hopefully, Yubari will not expect it this close to Ceilon and won't withdraw his aviation from Andamans to fly cover.

< Message edited by FatR -- 11/23/2010 10:18:48 PM >

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RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/23/2010 11:00:55 PM   
FatR

 

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After considerable deliberations, I decided to use mission speed and to launch from the position marked by square on the map above. There is 50/50 chance, assuming no prediction of my position and change in orders on Yubari's part, that the enemy carriers will be within 7 hexes, thus weakening the divebomber part of the strike. However, if they will at this distance, a considerable number of Allied planes, including all British fighters and F4F-3As won't be able to reach my carriers at all. Whether Allies will be within 6 or 7 hexes, USN TB squadrons won't be able to participate in a counterattack. If Yubari keeps the range of all of his planes low, to ensure a coordinated attack, I might even avoid the counterstrike altogether. I believe, this massive reduction in risk to my flattops is worth the possibility of a weaker strike.

Of course, carriers can react and whatever, and ruin all my plans. I do hope, though, that they won't react when the enemy is already is range.

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RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari... - 11/23/2010 11:19:55 PM   
beppi

 

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I would opt for a full strike at full speed.

1.) you cant LRCAP ships if they are not in range. So if he is now not in range he cant get into range until next turn resolution.
He could set his Fighters to LRCAP on random but i do not think that will help.

2.) It is 1942 and there is not much land based to retaliate that can hurt you. Only thing that can hurt are the Swordfish squads. It has Range of 6. All the medium and heavy bombers he might have are quite worthless. Even if they might score a lucky hit it wont doom you.

3.) If moving with max speed -> just check that now units will refuel during the movement and that no unit gets lost (lack of speed). In addition set retirement not allowed and react to 0. With this settings it should be no problem to do a speed run.

4.) You need to strike with torps. Everything else will just not sink the carriers.

5.) Even if you heavy cripple some units right now. Place your subs west of Ceylon the next turns, move to refill and replace KB and come back and sink everything left in the port. I do not know what units he shifted to India but i wont expect 300 fighters somewhere. And Hurricanes just suck against high experienced Japanese units.

6.) He has a cripple, you not. As Japanese you should always try to sink him. And in 1943 there comes the hellcat, the Corsair, better torps and better TBs/DBs for the Allied fleet.

Go for it :)

< Message edited by beppi -- 11/23/2010 11:22:57 PM >

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