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Who Won the Actual War? - 11/30/2010 5:54:17 PM   
brian800000

 

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The consensus seems to be that the winner of AE should be considered who did better than history, which I think opens up the question as to which side performed better--in game terms--in real life.

My assessment of the major errors by each side from Dec. 8 forward:

Japan
1. The Battle of Midway
2. Pressing too hard post midway, making a bad situation worse.
3. Pilot Training
4. Trying to turtle in the Home Islands at the end of the war (possibly not a mistake, they didn't know atomic weapons were coming, but with hindsight it wasn't smart)
5. Ineffective Japanese submarine doctrine

Allies
(I generally think their biggest mistakes occured on and prior to Dec. 7, which are outside of the timeframe of this game)
1. Defective torpedos.

[allied submarine warfare vs. japanese ASW possibly was flawed on both sides, but I think these cancel each other]

My assessment is that the Japanese player can easily correct these errors, but the allied player has few errors to correct, and it can't correct the torpedo issue anyway. In that sense, the Japanese player should have an easier time outperforming history, as in game terms the should be considered the winner.
Post #: 1
RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 11/30/2010 6:22:27 PM   
Canoerebel


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Interesting question, but I'm afraid the premise is flawed. Japan has two major advantages inherent in the game: (1) the developers intentionally gave Japan advantages not present in real life to make the game more balanced [that is not a knock on the game; it's just the cards we've been dealt] and (2) both sides begin the game with a massive amount of foreknowledge, but Japan begins the game with the initiative and so can put that foreknowledge to work easier.

Thus, in a game between players of equal experience, Japan will always do better than in real life at least well into 1943. Hence conquests of Port Moresby and Lunga are givens, and almost as likely are Japanese conquests of Midway, Luganville, Darwin, and other advance posts.

Sometimes, through good play or pure luck, the Aliled player will be able to reverse things in 1944 or early 1945, but not always.

So the real war is not a valid yardstick for WitP:AE.

(in reply to brian800000)
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RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 11/30/2010 7:09:34 PM   
DeriKuk


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Uh-oh.

I still have to take back Suva, not to mention all the other places.

Darwin is safe.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 11/30/2010 7:44:24 PM   
Nemo121


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Two points:

1. I'm not at all certain that the game is as biased towards Japan as people make out. I think that, often, people make this sort of statement to excuse their inability to halt Japan in '42. After all if you can't do the impossible then that's fine. If you can't do the possible then maybe your play is at fault.... And most people dislike thinking they might play sub-optimally.


2. 1944 or 45? Why wait that long. The Allied goal should be to destroy Japan's strategic position through 1942. In the beginning of 1942 that may necessitate defensive actions designed to frustrate Japan but there's no reason at all you can't mount one or two strategic offensives by the middle of 1942 if you play appropriately.


In reality the Allied goal should be to complete the game as a competitive match by the beginning of 1943 and give the Japanese player the option of surrendering or playing to the inevitable conclusion on January 1st 1943.



As to experience....
Back when the British were fighting against the French in CONUSA ( somewhere in Canada if memory serves me right ) a British general was asked why he didn't put a specific senior officer in command of an independent command as this officer had 20 campaigns under his belt. The British general replied that no matter how many campaigns a donkey had been on it didn't make it a strategist. Experience only matters IF you learn from what has happened to you and your forces. Very few players here ( although there are some honourable exceptions in AARs etc ) actually analyse their play and learn from their mistakes as well as their victories. Far too many notch up another campaign but don't really progress their understanding beyond what it was at the beginning of the campaign.

_____________________________

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RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 11/30/2010 7:50:50 PM   
Canoerebel


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I don't think many people believe they play optimally. I know that I don't. But after a heckuva lot of play in many mathces, I do think that most players have come to believe that in even matches Japan will expand further than it did historically. I can't imagine a game between evenly matched opponenets in which the Allies essentially bring the contest to an end by the beginning of 1943.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 11/30/2010 7:51:39 PM >

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RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 11/30/2010 7:52:10 PM   
Nemo121


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As to the OP....

Brian, I think you are confining yourself unnecessarily by considering only historical errors made by Japan. Yes the Japanese player can correct the Japanese errors which were, historically, made. In fact a Japanese player who doesn't is probably a very poor player as many people on the forums have even written "how to" guides on how to correct these errors - guides which go into detail as to which ships to convert, where, when etc.


But that still gives the Allied player the option of strategic manipulation to create a whole new set of problems unique to the current matchup which the Japanese player must solve in the here and now without help from forumites. At that point the Japanese player is thrown back on his own abilities and is likely to miscalculate etc.


Basically if we looked at it via the OODA loop the Observation, Orientation and Decisions for the historical errors are all already done by the forumites and so all the player has to do is enAct the advice given on the forums. That's easy. When you create new strategic problems for the Japanese player then they are thrown back onto their own devices and THEN you get to play all sorts of games with their Observation and Orientation and lead them into ever more dyssynchronised loops with a net, ever-increasing effect on the Decisions they make and Actions they take.

So, take it as a given that the Japanese player can fix the historical errors but take it as your role to create new opportunities for error which they can then be led into. That's what I do in my play and it works reasonably well.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to Nemo121)
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RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 11/30/2010 8:02:17 PM   
Nemo121


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Canoerebel,
I generally agree with you ( and I wasn't referring to your play or anything in my post, I was making a general post --- as to most people not thinking they play optimally. I agree but there's a difference between not thinking you play optimally and being open to rigorous self-analysis. I think people may have an awareness they could do better but I also think they tell themselves "comfort myths" to explain away poor play as "inevitable" given the game etc etc and so preclude thorough, rigorous self-analysis.) but that merely opens up the question of why on earth anyone would settle for being "as skillful" as their opponent?

Why not aim at playing so skillfully that you slaughter them at every turn and run rampant with inferior forces? I think too many people just automatically go, "Well my opponent and I are pretty similar in skill so he's going to take more than Japan historically did." By thinking that way you ( in a manner akin to the hermeneutics discussion on self-limitation of thought processes through limiting language and concepts which occurred in my AAR ) limit the possibilities you are willing to consider.

I don't go into a game thinking, "I'm way better than my opponent" but I do go in thinking that it is entirely possible for me to play better than him and stop him dead by mid-42 as the Allies or to take so much by the end of 43 that my strategic position is, essentially, unassailable. Sometime I'll be wrong and an opponent will wipe the floor with me but, at least, by thinking that way I am open to the possibilities of spoiling attacks and genuine offensives which would be closed off if my starting point was that he was going to expand more than was historically the case.

I know this is a bit of a philosophical point but by expecting a thing or allowing the expectation of a thing you are very far along the way to actually creating it ---- that's the conventionally accepted version... What isn't as often said is that by expecting a thing you often are closed to the possibility of counters which would prevent its appearance. That, to me, is the real problem... The closing of the mind to possibilities due to the expectation of some things and the imagined impossibility of others tends to make things develop as one expected. People then say, "Well, that was inevitable." when actually it wasn't at all inevitable. It just was inevitable when the possible counters to its occurrence were actively and passively ignored and unconsidered.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to Nemo121)
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RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 11/30/2010 8:17:33 PM   
LoBaron


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quote:

ORIGINAL: brian800000

The consensus seems to be that the winner of AE should be considered who did better than history, which I think opens up the question as to which side performed better--in game terms--in real life.

My assessment of the major errors by each side from Dec. 8 forward:

Japan
1. The Battle of Midway
2. Pressing too hard post midway, making a bad situation worse.
3. Pilot Training
4. Trying to turtle in the Home Islands at the end of the war (possibly not a mistake, they didn't know atomic weapons were coming, but with hindsight it wasn't smart)
5. Ineffective Japanese submarine doctrine

Allies
(I generally think their biggest mistakes occured on and prior to Dec. 7, which are outside of the timeframe of this game)
1. Defective torpedos.

[allied submarine warfare vs. japanese ASW possibly was flawed on both sides, but I think these cancel each other]

My assessment is that the Japanese player can easily correct these errors, but the allied player has few errors to correct, and it can't correct the torpedo issue anyway. In that sense, the Japanese player should have an easier time outperforming history, as in game terms the should be considered the winner.



I agree with you with one exception:
The Allies have huge potential of learning from mistakes made in the real war. They are just not as shiny and explosive as Midway. Both sides benefit immensely from 20/20 hindsight.

That does not make an early Allied victory more easy by a large margin but it makes victory on the whole nearly inevitable. Playing with that knowledge for example that you will start
to gain the technological edge in many aspects after the first year is history, makes a real difference to WWII. That evens things out by quite a bit. Felt desperation can block a few braincells.
Or different governements for that matter...


So in my opinion its exactly that: the shorter the war, the better for the Allies, the longer the war the better for the Japanese player. And somewhere in the middle is Hiroshima.









_____________________________


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RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 11/30/2010 8:26:44 PM   
fcharton

 

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Re : learning from one's mistakes...

More than "not learning from one's mistake", I think what often happens is that you don't learn the right lesson, at the right level. This game share a common trait with those boardgames wargamers call "monsters": it gives you a lot of switches to play with, and buttons to turn, and provides a very detailed account of everything. In other words, the system lures you into micromanagement, and some "overall control" wet dream, and you end up fighting the system, instead of fighting the enemy.

Of course, mastering the system is a good thing, but I think you can play very well without understanding, or using well, all the mechanisms the rules offer, if you fight on sound principles, and follow a plan (any plan, but one... I'll attack everywhere I can is not a plan). The reverse is not true, in my opinion.

Getting defeated and blaming the die, enemy skill, or bad understanding of the rules, is learning the wrong lesson. Trying to solve it by micromanaging even more (upping the fighters a few 1000ft, or getting into detailed tactics) is learning at the wrong level. This learning is not useless in itself, but it can't compensate for a lack of plan.

And this does mirror history to some extent... In many wars, victory goes to the general with a vision and a plan, rather than the one who has learned the (wrong) lessons from the previous war.

Francois

(in reply to Nemo121)
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RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 11/30/2010 8:33:24 PM   
Nemo121


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fcharton,

VERY good point... If I may digress into Soviet doctrine for a moment.... The Soviets were absolutely fanatical about the fact that tactical issues MUST be subordinated to Operational priorities which must be subordinated to Strategic priorities ( and so on up the chain ). The game lures people into worrying about pilot x or y in squadron z where the real level at which you can probably get most improvement for a given amount of time spent thinking is the strategic level.


The Soviets were often chastised for the small unit lack of reactivity etc but that lack of reactivity was the price they were willing to pay in order to make it easier for them to get large numbers of conscripts moving in the same direction at the same time in a co-ordinated way at the operational and strategic levels. As such they accepted a diminution in tactical skill in order to better achieve their operational and strategic goals. At the tactical and operational levels the Germans often beat them but from mid-43 onward the Soviets achieved every strategic goal they set themselves - sometimes at higher cost than they would have liked but the Ostfront was like that.


Good post fcharton.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to fcharton)
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RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 11/30/2010 8:52:08 PM   
LoBaron


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Agree with Nemo. Really good point.

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RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 11/30/2010 9:24:04 PM   
fcharton

 

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Thanks, guys...

Hi Nemo,

I'm not that familiar with soviet doctrine, but I would suspect this is typical of large armies of conscripts, in conflicts fought over long periods of time. The most intelligent tactical maneuver is doomed if lower echelon commanders cannot implement it, and a good general needs to adapt the complexity of his plan to the ability of his officers. There are many such cases in the Napoleonic wars, when the same armies could have battalions which had impressive fighting experience, and total greenhorns, and where several defeats resulted from giving the right orders to the wrong general.

I think Soviet doctrine partly resulted from the realisation that there were big lacks in the officer corps (due to the conscript nature of the army, and the effect of the purges and later campaigns against educated youths, which provide the officers in conscription armies). Basically, they needed a doctrine which could survive "botched execution".

This not said to criticize, of course. Lots of great innovations, like the massed columns of the (french) revolutionary wars and frontline rotation in WWI, resulted from the same adaptation of doctrine to the realities of command.

Francois

(edited for grammar...)

< Message edited by fcharton -- 11/30/2010 9:27:59 PM >

(in reply to LoBaron)
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RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 11/30/2010 10:18:00 PM   
mike scholl 1

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: brian800000
My assessment is that the Japanese player can easily correct these errors, but the allied player has few errors to correct, and it can't correct the torpedo issue anyway. In that sense, the Japanese player should have an easier time outperforming history, as in game terms the should be considered the winner.


I agree that the Japanese, by beginning with the initiative, can push the envelope of history. But hindsight will allow the Allied Player some options as well. He can't defend everything..., but he can use his foreknowledge of the most likely Japanese objectives to prepare some "iron nuts" for his opponent to break his teeth on.

(in reply to brian800000)
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RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 11/30/2010 10:18:26 PM   
Nemo121


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Well, fcharton, with Soviet doctrine a lot depends on the time you are talking about. Western conventional wisdom explains Soviet doctrine as the practice of hurling thousands of men with 1 gun per 5 men and 5 rounds per man at a line of machineguns. This is not really true. It'd be the same as looking at the Chinese operations in Korea in the early 50s and thinking that the human wave assaults were the acme of their military insight. Strategically the Chinese achieved their goals in that war to at least as great an extent as the Allied/UN nations did.


For the Soviets in the 30s and 40s you have two great dividers really.
1. Post-Tukhachevsky and
2. Post-purge


Tukhachevsky ( and Frunze and various other members of the new wave of mobile armoured tactics during the early 30s ) were writing about the creation of a mass, mobile army capable of sophisticated strategic and operational manoeuvres supported by well-trained junior officers capable of battlefield innovation and utilising the initiative.

After the purges ( when Tukhachevsky et al got 9mm solutions to their innovations ) the Soviet Army realised that it simply didn't have the talent remaining to rely on junior officers to do the right thing. Hell, it even realised that it didn't have sufficient staff officers to create staffs for the various Armies and Fronts ( I'll come back to this ). So, the Soviets promoted up the guys who remained - often promoting them 1 or more levels above that at which they were actually competent - and then told created a system in which any initiative by junior level officers was suppressed as they felt the junior level officers had insufficient training to be able to use their initiative appropriately.

They reasoned that if the divisional and regimental officer could rely on "automatons" at the Bn, company and platoon levels to enact their plans properly then, providing those plans were properly planned and reconned then they would succeed. In effect they pushed the "determinant of success" up from platoon, company and Bn-level decision-makers using their initiative in an unpredictable way to the regimental and divisional leaders.

What was required for success to be achieved by a regimental and divisional plan? ( and don't forget that the Soviets viewed divisions as the SMALLEST operational level unit ) What was required was good recon. If you look at a Soviet organisation from the time of the second world war you'll find dedicated recon assets only really began appearing at the regimental and divisional level. Why was that? Well, you needed recon to create plans and Bn and lower level leaders could make do with extempore recon assets ( usually the 3rd sub-unit in each triangular formation ).

With enough good recon the higher level leaders could minimise surprises and their plan could achieve success in spite of a lack of adaptability at lower levels. After all, why would your company commanders need to adapt to changes in the situation caused by the committment of the enemy's mobile reserve IF your divisional recon has spotted that mobile reserve and committed airstrikes, artillery and a Bn-sized pinning attack to pin it in place?

When the US Army OPFOR guys used Soviet tactics and achieved 90%+ identification of BLUFOR positions then they found that Soviet regimental attacks generally did succeed. Why? Simple, there's a clear correlation between IDing enemy positions and reducing the degree of surprises the enemy can pull - thus minimising the impact of your own lower-level inability to react to those surprises.

So, that's a very simple, basic primer on the hows and whys of Soviet doctrine from 1938 to 1942.


From 1943 onward the Soviets managed to implement two significant changes to the above:
1. Frequently this is ommitted but it was hugely important.... The Soviets managed to gather enough staff-trained officers to create a STAVKA level reserve of trained staff officers who were attached to Fronts and Armies which were expected to take part in significant offensive and defensive actions. E.g. At the time of Kursk STAVKA committed its staff reserve to the Armies and Fronts fighting at Kursk and that helped improve their operational performance and logistics hugely. Also at the time of Bagration one of the benefits of the phasing of offensives was that it allowed the Soviets to maximise the impact of their small number of trained staff officers by shuttling them from one offensive Front to another just in time to boost that Front's effectiveness in the offensives.


2. Darwinian selection had created enough Bn and company commanders who were capable that some key formations WERE able to be given more leeway in lower level decision-making. They never had enough but some units were noticeably more "agile" than others.


At the end of WW2 the Soviets had the choice of going back the Tukhachevsky route ( all the pluses of the current Soviet system PLUS lower-echelon adaptability ) or sticking with the current system ( no lower echelon adaptability ) and chose the latter. This was at least in part due to a "good enough is good enough" view but also due to the fact that for the troika system of government in the Soviet Union to remain the Party, KGB/NKVD/State Internal Security Apparatus and the Army had to remain in a state of balance where no single leg of the stool ( Party, Army, Security )was stronger than the other two. Giving the militarily strongest leg of the stool low-level initiative meant making officers think for themselves before they reached a rank sufficiently high that they had more to lose than to gain by revolting. Politically that wasn't a smart thing to do. One could argue that this made the army too weak to destroy the west. This is true. On the other hand it never made the Army so weak that the Soviet Union was invaded. So, it kept the army strong enough that it could achieve its primary goal - the survival of the State - whilst keeping it weak enough that it never became a threat to the survival of the State.

People often forget that under Soviet doctrine this constituted a National Policy Objective ( survival of the state ) and thus was, obviously, more important than more tactical, operational and strategic effectiveness. So, it was the obvious choice to make - --- although maybe not to Western eyes.


There were quite a few more interplays obviously but that's the basic viewpoint.... Your summary though, fcharton, of needing a doctrine which could survive botched execution is a pretty good point summary too though.


_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to fcharton)
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RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 11/30/2010 10:25:35 PM   
DeriKuk


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As for "sub-optimal" play: Some of us play with house-rule handicaps; e.g. as the Allies I am not allowed to place any of my 4E groups on Naval Attack. Oooops! Suddenly the Allied reach is so short that stopping the Japanese advance becomes a real challenge. Yes, you can risk your few carriers in closing with any invasion TFs, but a smart Japanese opponent will soon be using those as bait to draw the Allied carriers towards KB; and in 1942 the Japanese carriers and planes still have a decided edge.

Remember: The historical Midway battle was pretty much a "miracle" delivered through code-breaking, and even then it was closer than the result would let on. No half-smart Japanese player will risk so much for so little potential gain. KB's main strategic significance is its existence and threat. The same goes for the Allied carriers, to a lesser extent. Only from the middle of 1943 onward can the Allied player realistically expect parity.

(in reply to fcharton)
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RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 11/30/2010 10:47:30 PM   
PresterJohn001


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121



The Soviets were often chastised for the small unit lack of reactivity etc but that lack of reactivity was the price they were willing to pay in order to make it easier for them to get large numbers of conscripts moving in the same direction at the same time in a co-ordinated way at the operational and strategic levels. As such they accepted a diminution in tactical skill in order to better achieve their operational and strategic goals. At the tactical and operational levels the Germans often beat them but from mid-43 onward the Soviets achieved every strategic goal they set themselves - sometimes at higher cost than they would have liked but the Ostfront was like that.



I don't think the soviets had much choice in the matter, they didn't have the small unit tactical nouse and experience, but they had a lot of human beings. They simply played to their strength, which was their only choice and Stalin knew that and ruthlessely pursued it. The quantity has a quality of its own strategy evidentially worked but it was the only (viable) strategy the soviets had.

(in reply to Nemo121)
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RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 11/30/2010 10:51:09 PM   
PresterJohn001


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quote:

ORIGINAL: brian800000

The consensus seems to be that the winner of AE should be considered who did better than history, which I think opens up the question as to which side performed better--in game terms--in real life.

My assessment of the major errors by each side from Dec. 8 forward:

Japan
1. The Battle of Midway
2. Pressing too hard post midway, making a bad situation worse.
3. Pilot Training
4. Trying to turtle in the Home Islands at the end of the war (possibly not a mistake, they didn't know atomic weapons were coming, but with hindsight it wasn't smart)
5. Ineffective Japanese submarine doctrine

Allies
(I generally think their biggest mistakes occured on and prior to Dec. 7, which are outside of the timeframe of this game)
1. Defective torpedos.

[allied submarine warfare vs. japanese ASW possibly was flawed on both sides, but I think these cancel each other]

My assessment is that the Japanese player can easily correct these errors, but the allied player has few errors to correct, and it can't correct the torpedo issue anyway. In that sense, the Japanese player should have an easier time outperforming history, as in game terms the should be considered the winner.



The allies, because you don't get foresight or a rerun or savegame in real life.

As for the game foreknowledge is the most powerful weapon and its equally available to both sides. The allies have more stuff to use it with, the Japanese the early initiative. Makes for a great balance really (as a game).

(in reply to brian800000)
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RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 11/30/2010 11:06:04 PM   
brian800000

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't think many people believe they play optimally. I know that I don't. But after a heckuva lot of play in many mathces, I do think that most players have come to believe that in even matches Japan will expand further than it did historically. I can't imagine a game between evenly matched opponenets in which the Allies essentially bring the contest to an end by the beginning of 1943.


But the majority of games don't have the Japanese losing 4 carriers in a Midway style battle--instead they focus those carriers on expanding territory. Had the Japanese done that in reality, they would have almost certainly done better as well.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 11/30/2010 11:08:50 PM   
fcharton

 

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Hi Hjalmar

quote:

ORIGINAL: hjalmar99
Remember: The historical Midway battle was pretty much a "miracle" delivered through code-breaking, and even then it was closer than the result would let on. No half-smart Japanese player will risk so much for so little potential gain. KB's main strategic significance is its existence and threat. The same goes for the Allied carriers, to a lesser extent. Only from the middle of 1943 onward can the Allied player realistically expect parity.


That's another big difference between the real thing and our gaming experience. Even in double blind games, or with computer-assisted fog of war, I believe we have a much clearer view of enemy intentions and positions, than real life generals had, most of the time. It is only a game, so panic is less present, we are alone, whereas they were staffs (and sometimes numbers bring confusion), and we have a numbre of certitudes (like KB must be low on sorties, and can only refill here and there) which were but wild guesses at the time.

This deeper FOW certainly allowed for more possibilities to surprise the enemy, which would warrant bold moves like Midway (from a Japanese point of view), which would look very risky in a game.

On the other hand, code breaking achieved much stronger local results than the ones we get in the game. A bit as if, at some point, you could inspect any enemy stack, without him knowing. This made Midway possible on the US side, but probably also explain a number of impressive advances in other theaters (North Africa, and parts of France 1940 being cases in point)

I believe that "confusion factor", which meant staff generals could sometimes be totally wrong over enemy intentions, or where things could go wrong in very unexpected ways, is one of the things games cannot really model well (or if they did, might spoil the actual game fun).

Francois

(in reply to DeriKuk)
Post #: 19
RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 11/30/2010 11:29:03 PM   
Nemo121


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PresterJohn,

Well, they didn't have the tactical nous in 1941-43 because at the start of the war their competent low-level COs had all been shot or promoted up to replace the medium and higher level COs who had been shot. But that doesn't mean they couldn't have had it. Absent the purges I think the Soviet Army in 1941 would have fought the war quite differently. Of course, as we say in Ireland, If my auntie had balls she'd be my uncle... Point being we can prognosticate endlessly but it doesn't change what was. I do accept that kernel at the heart of your point.

The paragraph you quote though was more dealing with post-war Soviet choices than the 1941 to 43 period. During that period they didn't have much of a choice. After 1945 though they did have a choice and they chose to prioritise the higher echelons and keep the army weak enough to safeguard the state.

< Message edited by Nemo121 -- 11/30/2010 11:31:32 PM >


_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to fcharton)
Post #: 20
RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 12/1/2010 12:04:15 AM   
Feltan


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quote:

ORIGINAL: brian800000

The consensus seems to be that the winner of AE should be considered who did better than history, which I think opens up the question as to which side performed better--in game terms--in real life.

My assessment of the major errors by each side from Dec. 8 forward:

Japan
1. The Battle of Midway
2. Pressing too hard post midway, making a bad situation worse.
3. Pilot Training
4. Trying to turtle in the Home Islands at the end of the war (possibly not a mistake, they didn't know atomic weapons were coming, but with hindsight it wasn't smart)
5. Ineffective Japanese submarine doctrine

Allies
(I generally think their biggest mistakes occured on and prior to Dec. 7, which are outside of the timeframe of this game)
1. Defective torpedos.

[allied submarine warfare vs. japanese ASW possibly was flawed on both sides, but I think these cancel each other]

My assessment is that the Japanese player can easily correct these errors, but the allied player has few errors to correct, and it can't correct the torpedo issue anyway. In that sense, the Japanese player should have an easier time outperforming history, as in game terms the should be considered the winner.


I would add one huge item on the Allied side. The U.S. (and hence the Allies) had a split command in the Pacific; the Army's Southwest Pacific command run by MacArthur, and Nimitz running the Pacific Command. In the game, the Allied player doesn't have to deal with the politics of a split command, and hence is not required to divert resources to one or the other to placate egos.

The ability to correct this problem, by itself, gives the Allies a decisive advantage -- namely, unity of command. That alone should shorten the war by several months!

Regards,
Feltan

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Post #: 21
RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 12/1/2010 12:27:15 AM   
DivePac88


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Feltan

I would add one huge item on the Allied side. The U.S. (and hence the Allies) had a split command in the Pacific; the Army's Southwest Pacific command run by MacArthur, and Nimitz running the Pacific Command. In the game, the Allied player doesn't have to deal with the politics of a split command, and hence is not required to divert resources to one or the other to placate egos.

The ability to correct this problem, by itself, gives the Allies a decisive advantage -- namely, unity of command. That alone should shorten the war by several months!

Regards,
Feltan


But I think the same could be said for the Japanese side. The Japanese also had a split command structure between their respective Army and Naval General Staff commands. The Army General staff where more concerned with their operational stalemate in China, and a possible upcoming war with a weaken USSR. While the Naval General Staff and the Combined Fleet Command's gaze was firmly fixed in the Pacific and Southern Resource areas.

That both these command Structures were loathe to share resources with each other is well known. So that the unified command structure in AE favors the Allied player just as much as it does the Japanese one.


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When you see the Southern Cross, For the first time
You understand now, Why you came this way

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Post #: 22
RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 12/1/2010 1:26:55 AM   
brian800000

 

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I guess a point worth considering is that we consider that the Japanese position was hopeless, and therefore judge success by gaining territory and dragging out defeat. But the Japanese actually wanted to win, and in that sense forcing the US carriers into battles may not have been a bad strategy. Decisively winning carrier battle after carrier battle was their only shot to win the war.

It is like going into a casino with $40 in the hopes of becoming a billionaire in games of chance. It is effectively predetermined that you are going to lose you $40. But if you really want to do it, putting the $40 on your favorite number in roulette and letting it ride is probably the best strategy--5 very luckly spins in a row and you would be a billionaire! But if you put that strategy in place, you probably will be broke in a matter of minutes, while you could drag things out with the quarter slots.

(in reply to DivePac88)
Post #: 23
RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 12/1/2010 3:23:30 AM   
Big B

 

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That's easy - The Allies On All Scores... CV battles, Surface Actions, Air War, Land Conquest....on the Missouri in Tokyo Bay 1945 that wasn't even remotely a question asked.

Now who won the peace? 60 years on - that is another question...isn't it?

(in reply to brian800000)
Post #: 24
RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 12/1/2010 4:57:15 AM   
Klahn

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: brian800000

I guess a point worth considering is that we consider that the Japanese position was hopeless, and therefore judge success by gaining territory and dragging out defeat. But the Japanese actually wanted to win, and in that sense forcing the US carriers into battles may not have been a bad strategy. Decisively winning carrier battle after carrier battle was their only shot to win the war.

It is like going into a casino with $40 in the hopes of becoming a billionaire in games of chance. It is effectively predetermined that you are going to lose you $40. But if you really want to do it, putting the $40 on your favorite number in roulette and letting it ride is probably the best strategy--5 very luckly spins in a row and you would be a billionaire! But if you put that strategy in place, you probably will be broke in a matter of minutes, while you could drag things out with the quarter slots.


I think it was a sound strategy. Remember that the Japanese didn't have any illusions that they could force the US to surrender. They knew quite well that they had no hope of winning an extended war. Their goal was to put the US in a position where the US had to choose between rebuilding naval power in the Pacific theater vs. going toe-to-toe with Hitler. The battle of Midway wasn't the real turning point for Japan in my analysis. The Eastern Front in Europe was. Once it became clear that the Soviets weren't going to collapse, the Allies were no longer on the hook for a single-front war with Germany. This meant that the US could spend resources in the Pacific that would have otherwise been needed in Europe.

The US buildup for Europe still took priority and was quite impressive. But it must be remembered that the US/Canada/UK and other western Allies were only facing 1/4 of the German military. The Soviets were tying up the other 3/4 and pretty much all of the forces the other Axis powers as well. If the Germans could have concentrated all of that power in the Western Front, the US and it's Allies in the Pacific could very well have been cornered into negotiating a settlement with Japan.

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RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 12/1/2010 10:46:22 AM   
Sheytan


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Excellent summary. I agree.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Interesting question, but I'm afraid the premise is flawed. Japan has two major advantages inherent in the game: (1) the developers intentionally gave Japan advantages not present in real life to make the game more balanced [that is not a knock on the game; it's just the cards we've been dealt] and (2) both sides begin the game with a massive amount of foreknowledge, but Japan begins the game with the initiative and so can put that foreknowledge to work easier.

Thus, in a game between players of equal experience, Japan will always do better than in real life at least well into 1943. Hence conquests of Port Moresby and Lunga are givens, and almost as likely are Japanese conquests of Midway, Luganville, Darwin, and other advance posts.

Sometimes, through good play or pure luck, the Aliled player will be able to reverse things in 1944 or early 1945, but not always.

So the real war is not a valid yardstick for WitP:AE.



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Post #: 26
RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 12/1/2010 12:12:47 PM   
FatR

 

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The most basic list of Allied mistakes in the war:

1)Total lack of understanding of the enemy's real capabilities. Directly caused Force Z destruction and was a major factor at mismanagement of Malaya and Luzon campaigns. Not an issue for an AE player, obviously
2)Said mismanagement of Malaya and Luzon campaigns. Yes, the latter too. Not only American-Philippino forces bottled themselves up at Bataan, allowing Japanese to free the best part of their initial force for the conquest of DEI, they, as far as I know, failed to retreat there in proper order (evacuating all supplies they can and so on).
Mostly not an issue for an AE player, although (generally unsuccessful) attemps of forward defense at Luzon happen surprisingly often.
3)Halfhearted defense of DEI, that yet resulted in sacrifice of some valuable ships. Happens to AE players too, though.
4)Using USN carrier force for missions of no real importance until Coral Sea (which resulted in a draw, at best, instead of decisive Allied victory, directly because some carriers were away on Doolittle's raid). Generally does not happen in the game.
5)Commitment to various targets that already lost all strategic importance during the Allied offensives of 1943-44. Includes the entire axis of advance through New Guinea, possibly after the neutralization of Truk, and certainly after Marianas. As far as I can see, Allied players are more likely to commit the opposite mistake and to fixate on a single point of attack.
6)Attacking Philippines instead of Formosa, due to political machinations. Actually in AE Philippines are likely to be an easier target, and with practically the same value.

And about Japanese mistakes you listed... they did not really had a choice whether to turtle in Home Islands or not. There was no set of decisions that could have improved pilot training situation more than marginally. It was likely possible to mitigate the results of attrition a bit better and for a bit longer, but in the end, that was just a plain lose-lose situation. Japanese submarine doctrine was plenty effective until they got outpaced in technological race. If you refer to ASW doctrine, yes, it evolved far too slowly, compared to what they needed (not that Allied sub warfare started to make serious impact before Japan's position was hopeless anyway, but it enabled significantly faster collapse of defenses later in the war). In the game, ASW warfare (for both sides) is easier for both sides as an inevitable result of a simplified logistics model, though.


(in reply to brian800000)
Post #: 27
RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 12/1/2010 12:35:37 PM   
FatR

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
I don't think many people believe they play optimally. I know that I don't. But after a heckuva lot of play in many mathces, I do think that most players have come to believe that in even matches Japan will expand further than it did historically. I can't imagine a game between evenly matched opponenets in which the Allies essentially bring the contest to an end by the beginning of 1943.

Cuttlefish's defeat by Q-Ball and a couple of AARs where Allies managed to inflict a decisive defeat on KB before the early expansion phase was over.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 28
RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 12/1/2010 2:07:17 PM   
Canoerebel


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Yeah, I followed the game between Cuttlefish and Q-Ball. That game turned in late 1942 when Q-Ball attained complete strategic surprise in the DEI, then won a decisive carrier battle. Even then, Japan would have held out into 1944 (or possibly even later), but the game lost it's charm for the players once Japan was reduced to nothing more than defending without a navy.

Nemo's game (Salutations and Solicitations) also comes to mind - the one in which he's giving Japan fits in the DEI and vicinity in 1942.

The general consensus (with noteable and sometimes vociferous disagreement) seems to be that Japan will expand further than it did in the real war due to foreknowledge about Allied and Japanese capabilities and force dispositions, and the fact that Japan holds the initiative early in the game. For instance, a capable Japanese player will almost always take Port Moresby, Lunga, and Darwin by February 1942.

Japan getting clobbered early seems to be the exception to the rule. In most games, Japan will do better earlier - and should. (Here Nemo might chime in to say that's not optimal thinking etc., but I think it's accurate).

(in reply to FatR)
Post #: 29
RE: Who Won the Actual War? - 12/1/2010 2:47:40 PM   
FatR

 

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Nemo's game doesn't pass the criteria of rough parity in skills, to be honest. His opponent misused Japanese strategic assets even without Nemo's help (first of all, if he sent KB against Singapore at the beginning of the game, he should have used that to land at Singkawang, Palembang and, maybe, Mersing as well, within the first week of the war) and made some bizarre oversights, such as not torching Chinese light industry in rear areas within the first month or two, even though, IIRC, strategic bombing in China was not forbidden.

< Message edited by FatR -- 12/1/2010 2:52:26 PM >

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