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Question for those who have reached late in the war in ... - 11/25/2010 12:15:23 AM   
Andrew Brown


Posts: 5007
Joined: 9/5/2000
From: Hex 82,170
Status: offline 		Hi all,

I have seen a number of threads discussing Japanese aircraft production in AE and how it can be "optimised". I would be interested to see production figures from actual games, to see how they really do compare against the real world stats.

This is for the Japanese, as the Allied production rates are fixed.

For comparison, the TOTAL aircraft production rates for the Japanese are usually quoted as: 
Year      Total
1942      8,861
1943     16,693
1944     28,180
1945      8,263

Note that these are total values, not necessarily the number that made it into service with "on map" air units.

So, how do the figures from AE compare to the real world values?

Any figures from games in progress would be most welcome. This is for my own interest in developing scenario mods for AE.

Thanks,
Andrew
Post #: 1
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/25/2010 4:21:35 PM   
pompack


Posts: 2582
Joined: 2/8/2004
From: University Park, Texas
Status: offline 		Andrew, this is quite interesting

I am at 1mar44 in a PBEM game with what seems to be "typical" losses. Without actually going in and counting, I would have guessed that the Japanese production would be slightly in excess of reality. HOWEVER, I just went in and counted. Now I cannot tell how much was produced at any given time, but I can look at the "total used" and the "pool" values to see what I have done since inception. Now ignoring dec41 and initial pools, this count indicates that I have "used" 15,483 a/c with 3840 in "pools" for a rough estimate of total production at 19,323.

Looking at your numbers, the cum total productgion through dec43 should be 25,554 with roughly 2300 producted in jan and feb44 for an approximate total of 30,100 a/c.

So instead of producing slightly more than real life, I seem to be producing at about 2/3 real life. Very interesting. Since I could have produced more, this indicates that my game has been less bloody than real life.

(in reply to Andrew Brown)
Post #: 2
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/25/2010 4:35:13 PM   
erstad

 

Posts: 1944
Joined: 8/3/2004
From: Midwest USA
Status: offline 		I also find it interesting. In my PBEM as Japan, I'm in May 44, and a quick total suggests I have the capability of building about 2400 planes/month. Given that some of the factories are off I am probably on a pace to produce slightly under the historical 44 number. Of course, the mix is different.

Is there an easy way to total to-date production, or do I have to go airframe by airframe and add them up?

(in reply to pompack)
Post #: 3
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/25/2010 9:31:52 PM   
rader


Posts: 1238
Joined: 9/13/2004
Status: offline 		I am also underproducing compared to these historical numbers somewhat, and I suspect most JFBs are, especially in 1944. However, I'm not sure this is a great comparison -- I'm guessing those numbers include trainers and some other a/c not represented in the game.

(in reply to erstad)
Post #: 4
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/25/2010 9:56:31 PM   
Shark7


Posts: 7937
Joined: 7/24/2007
From: The Big Nowhere
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: pompack

Andrew, this is quite interesting

I am at 1mar44 in a PBEM game with what seems to be "typical" losses. Without actually going in and counting, I would have guessed that the Japanese production would be slightly in excess of reality. HOWEVER, I just went in and counted. Now I cannot tell how much was produced at any given time, but I can look at the "total used" and the "pool" values to see what I have done since inception. Now ignoring dec41 and initial pools, this count indicates that I have "used" 15,483 a/c with 3840 in "pools" for a rough estimate of total production at 19,323.

Looking at your numbers, the cum total productgion through dec43 should be 25,554 with roughly 2300 producted in jan and feb44 for an approximate total of 30,100 a/c.

So instead of producing slightly more than real life, I seem to be producing at about 2/3 real life. Very interesting. Since I could have produced more, this indicates that my game has been less bloody than real life.


If what you are experiencing is typical, then that suggests that the AFBs are not facing something as bad as historical as far as total frames produced suggests. Granted, frames produced and frames to reach combat are two different things...also many of the historical frames would have been used for attrition replacements, not placed into new units.

The next question is to evaluate how many planes the allies can produce versus historical production numbers...despite the fact that they can not adjust their production rates, they should at least get the correct number of planes produced by the end of the war...

Let's take the P-40 Warhawk for example...in total some 13,738 frames of all variants were built. How many P-40s of all variants will be produced in game?

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Post #: 5
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/25/2010 9:58:43 PM   
Bradley7735


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Joined: 7/12/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: erstad

Is there an easy way to total to-date production, or do I have to go airframe by airframe and add them up?



If you open the industry screen, there's a summary that totals all the industry types. There's a total for undamaged and damaged, so it's a one number look at total plane production.

I don't know if there's a way to tell how many airframes have been made since the start of the war, just the summary number of per month, current production.

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Post #: 6
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/25/2010 10:26:12 PM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		I am at the end of 1943, Dec. 24, 1943 to be exact.

According to Tracker, I have used (i.e. drawn from the pool and placed on the map) 7816 planes since the start of the war, and have 6679 planes in the pool. 14,495 planes in total.

ADDED: also according to tracker I am building 1229 airframes a month while a further 446 airframe factories are sitting idle, giving the potential for total production of 1675 airframes a month.


< Message edited by cap_and_gown -- 11/25/2010 10:30:10 PM >

(in reply to Bradley7735)
Post #: 7
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/26/2010 2:35:24 AM   
Andrew Brown


Posts: 5007
Joined: 9/5/2000
From: Hex 82,170
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: rader

I am also underproducing compared to these historical numbers somewhat, and I suspect most JFBs are, especially in 1944. However, I'm not sure this is a great comparison -- I'm guessing those numbers include trainers and some other a/c not represented in the game.


Indeed. Assuming that the production totals I quoted are correct, there must be a portion of them that were diverted to things not also performed by aircraft in the game, such as basic trainers, spares and so on. For the Allies at least, these "non game" uses can add up to quite a large percentage of the airframes built, at least in the very limited amount of research I have done (mainly while checking Allied carrier aircraft production rates), and have to be taken into account for any comparison.

Andrew


(in reply to rader)
Post #: 8
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/26/2010 2:38:12 AM   
Andrew Brown


Posts: 5007
Joined: 9/5/2000
From: Hex 82,170
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: cap_and_gown

I am at the end of 1943, Dec. 24, 1943 to be exact.

According to Tracker, I have used (i.e. drawn from the pool and placed on the map) 7816 planes since the start of the war, and have 6679 planes in the pool. 14,495 planes in total.

ADDED: also according to tracker I am building 1229 airframes a month while a further 446 airframe factories are sitting idle, giving the potential for total production of 1675 airframes a month.



Thanks. Very useful and interesting information posted in this thread.

From the limited information I have seen so far, the aircraft numbers being produced by the Japanese in game do not look excessive compared to Real Life figures, but that does depend on how many aircraft reached front line units in actuality (which I do not know).

Andrew

(in reply to CapAndGown)
Post #: 9
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/26/2010 4:16:33 AM   
erstad

 

Posts: 1944
Joined: 8/3/2004
From: Midwest USA
Status: offline 		OK, now that I've found the "total" line on Tracker's air production screen

Japan at 5/21/44: about 26K planes in "pool" plus "used"
Allied at 6/4/44: About 31K planes in "pool" plus "used"
Allied (non-soviet) at 6/4/44: About 27.5K planes in "pool" plus "used"

(in reply to Andrew Brown)
Post #: 10
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/26/2010 7:17:54 AM   
castor troy


Posts: 14330
Joined: 8/23/2004
From: Austria
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: pompack

Andrew, this is quite interesting

I am at 1mar44 in a PBEM game with what seems to be "typical" losses. Without actually going in and counting, I would have guessed that the Japanese production would be slightly in excess of reality. HOWEVER, I just went in and counted. Now I cannot tell how much was produced at any given time, but I can look at the "total used" and the "pool" values to see what I have done since inception. Now ignoring dec41 and initial pools, this count indicates that I have "used" 15,483 a/c with 3840 in "pools" for a rough estimate of total production at 19,323.

Looking at your numbers, the cum total productgion through dec43 should be 25,554 with roughly 2300 producted in jan and feb44 for an approximate total of 30,100 a/c.

So instead of producing slightly more than real life, I seem to be producing at about 2/3 real life. Very interesting. Since I could have produced more, this indicates that my game has been less bloody than real life.



it also indicates that you didn´t produce any trainers or all the obsolete aircraft types.

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Post #: 11
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/26/2010 7:23:51 AM   
castor troy


Posts: 14330
Joined: 8/23/2004
From: Austria
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Andrew Brown


quote:

ORIGINAL: cap_and_gown

I am at the end of 1943, Dec. 24, 1943 to be exact.

According to Tracker, I have used (i.e. drawn from the pool and placed on the map) 7816 planes since the start of the war, and have 6679 planes in the pool. 14,495 planes in total.

ADDED: also according to tracker I am building 1229 airframes a month while a further 446 airframe factories are sitting idle, giving the potential for total production of 1675 airframes a month.



Thanks. Very useful and interesting information posted in this thread.

From the limited information I have seen so far, the aircraft numbers being produced by the Japanese in game do not look excessive compared to Real Life figures, but that does depend on how many aircraft reached front line units in actuality (which I do not know).

Andrew



total numbers of aircraft production usually hasn´t reached real life output in WITP so it probably neither reach it in AE. As you´ve said, there are aircraft in the total real life numbers you don´t produce in AE. The main "problem" (if you want to call it a problem) is not the total number of aircraft but the total numbers of a certain TYPE of aircraft. If the Japanese pumps out 50000 Nates in 45 noone would really care, if there are 1000 Franks coming out of the factory each month it probably would look different. But looking at each type of aircraft would make it even more difficult to compare to real life. Well, not really difficult, but lots of work. You can´t blame a Japanese player to produce a Frank instead of a Nate, it´s costing the same after all and one is a fighter, the other one is just a target.

< Message edited by castor troy -- 11/26/2010 7:28:33 AM >

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Post #: 12
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/26/2010 1:05:42 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		Interesting thread. Thanks for the question, Andrew. I also find the trajectory of RL interesting here too just in terms of numbers.

1943 was about twice the production of 1942. 1944 was almost double the production of 1943. In 1945, the quantity dropped back to 1942 levels again.

I would venture that most IJ players increase their production levels faster than RL, but keep them there throughout the course of the game versus doubling and then doubling again in 1943/1944 respectively.

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Post #: 13
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/26/2010 1:20:53 PM   
gajdacs zsolt

 

Posts: 113
Joined: 9/16/2009
Status: offline 		Total losses as of 43/10/25 (scenario 2): 12893
Total number of planes in pool: 5683

Current production figures according to Tracker (the game say max production is 1790, 240 disabled):




Attachment (1)

(in reply to castor troy)
Post #: 14
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/26/2010 3:00:58 PM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Interesting thread. Thanks for the question, Andrew. I also find the trajectory of RL interesting here too just in terms of numbers.

1943 was about twice the production of 1942. 1944 was almost double the production of 1943. In 1945, the quantity dropped back to 1942 levels again.

I would venture that most IJ players increase their production levels faster than RL, but keep them there throughout the course of the game versus doubling and then doubling again in 1943/1944 respectively.


And I would venture you are wrong, if only because it takes time and supplies to build up like that, both for HI factories, engine factories, and plane factories. In addition, JFBs have a big temptation to hold off ramping up production on older, less capable models and waiting until better models come along. Finally, there is simply a hard ceiling on how many AC can be on the map based on the number and size of the various squadrons. It would make little sense to produce 6 or 7 times that amount if casualties do not justify it.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 15
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/26/2010 3:19:57 PM   
Sredni

 

Posts: 705
Joined: 9/30/2004
From: Canada
Status: offline 		The japanese AI I'm playing has produced 17000 planes total thus far in 44. Nowhere near the numbers listed in the OP. I held onto part of the DEI though so I think I may have crippled the AI's supply situation.

I was going to figure out allied totals as well, but there's like a 1000 different types of planes in my pools so I kinda lost interest in adding them up heh. It would be interesting to see how the allied amounts compare to the japanese production in regards to historical amounts.

If japanese opponents are consistently producing significantly lower amounts of airframes compared to historical then there's obviously problems with the game. The numbers in the OP might not be entirely accurate to the airframes that saw actual combat though. I know the debates I've seen about various allied airframes in regards to what you get compared to historical production always seem to bring up various things that saw the produced airframes considerably reduced in number by the time they reached actual front line units. (training groups not modeled, all those pilots in the pools needed to learn on something. planes lost to accidents before reaching combat. planes of experimental and other noncombat roles. planes not modeled. ect ect)

(in reply to CapAndGown)
Post #: 16
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/26/2010 3:34:30 PM   
oldman45


Posts: 2320
Joined: 5/1/2005
From: Jacksonville Fl
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Sredni


If japanese opponents are consistently producing significantly lower amounts of airframes compared to historical then there's obviously problems with the game. The numbers in the OP might not be entirely accurate to the airframes that saw actual combat though. I know the debates I've seen about various allied airframes in regards to what you get compared to historical production always seem to bring up various things that saw the produced airframes considerably reduced in number by the time they reached actual front line units. (training groups not modeled, all those pilots in the pools needed to learn on something. planes lost to accidents before reaching combat. planes of experimental and other noncombat roles. planes not modeled. ect ect)


I am not sure that is an accurate statement. The numbers shown by Andrew could reflect planes that our players don't use. As you pointed out, not all production reaches front line units. I don't think this reflects a problem with the game. Instead you have players tinkering with their production and this is going to skew the numbers.

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Post #: 17
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/26/2010 4:09:15 PM   
Puhis


Posts: 1737
Joined: 11/30/2008
From: Finland
Status: offline 		Once I summed up real war japanese airplane production, and I got about 42000 planes that are in this game. But I did exclude all early models (A6M2, Ki-43 Ic etc.), because production of those started before the war.

So I think instead of total airplane production of 62000, about 45 000 planes might be better figure to compare game production.

(in reply to oldman45)
Post #: 18
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/26/2010 6:10:36 PM   
Rainer79

 

Posts: 603
Joined: 10/31/2008
From: Austria
Status: offline 		Here are my numbers according to tracker. Game date is Dec. '43.

Pool: 6141
Used: 11691
I am currently making 944 planes / month (plus quite a number of plants sitting idle).

(in reply to Puhis)
Post #: 19
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/26/2010 6:58:54 PM   
timtom


Posts: 2358
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From: Aarhus, Denmark
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Andrew Brown

For comparison, the TOTAL aircraft production rates for the Japanese are usually quoted as: 

Year      Total
1942      8,861
1943     16,693
1944     28,180
1945      8,263




This figure includes 11189 trainers.

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Post #: 20
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/26/2010 6:59:29 PM   
vaned74

 

Posts: 389
Joined: 11/17/2008
Status: offline 		Let's keep in mind that for Japan - each pilot carries a cost of 60 heavy industry points and 12 oil (I think). It's something like 5 hi and 1 oil/fuel per month while in the pilot replacement automatic training system. I always assumed the 5 hi/month represented things like trainers?

Note a single engine front line combat fighter runs 36 heavy industry points.

(in reply to Andrew Brown)
Post #: 21
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/26/2010 8:08:09 PM   
Sun Tempest

 

Posts: 45
Joined: 9/14/2010
Status: offline 		Rather than comparing the overall production of planes, maybe it would be better to compare the in-game production of note-worthy planes with the RL production of the same planes.


For example, the production run of Ki-44 Tojo&variants amounts to 1157 planes, while the production of Ki-43 Oscar&variants amounts to 5868, of which 716 pre- and early war Ki-43 I a,b,c. The production of the highly important Ki-84&variants reached 3382 units, and the production of Ki-61 I Tony amounted to 2654 units.
In regards to IJN fighters, J2M -560 units, N1K-J - aprox. 1425 units, while the production A6M3&variants/A6M5/6&variants amounted to a staggering 8136 units.

Most of these numbers doesn't include the prototypes and per-production planes, with the source for these data being the website http://lemairesoft.sytes.net:1945/weben/avion/stats/11054.html#18155


(in reply to vaned74)
Post #: 22
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/27/2010 10:16:03 AM   
Andrew Brown


Posts: 5007
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From: Hex 82,170
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Puhis

Once I summed up real war japanese airplane production, and I got about 42000 planes that are in this game. But I did exclude all early models (A6M2, Ki-43 Ic etc.), because production of those started before the war.

So I think instead of total airplane production of 62000, about 45 000 planes might be better figure to compare game production.



That matches my view pretty well (and as TimTom mentions there were about 11000 trainers).

Andrew

(in reply to Puhis)
Post #: 23
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/27/2010 10:19:30 AM   
Andrew Brown


Posts: 5007
Joined: 9/5/2000
From: Hex 82,170
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Sun Tempest

Rather than comparing the overall production of planes, maybe it would be better to compare the in-game production of note-worthy planes with the RL production of the same planes.


Yes, a valid point. That touches on another (related) subject - how easy it is to switch production between different aircraft. In this thread I was mainly looking at total production figures versus Real Life figures.

Another factor which affects which aircraft a player will build is hindsight, of course, but hindsight is hard to avoid in historical games like AE.

Andrew

(in reply to Sun Tempest)
Post #: 24
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/27/2010 11:43:57 AM   
timtom


Posts: 2358
Joined: 1/29/2003
From: Aarhus, Denmark
Status: offline 		Strictly speaking a comparison should be by weight.

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Post #: 25
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/27/2010 3:25:02 PM   
pompack


Posts: 2582
Joined: 2/8/2004
From: University Park, Texas
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: timtom

Strictly speaking a comparison should be by weight.



Ah, the ghost of PriceH!

And yes it really did work to estimate costs by weight, to the astonishment of all the Electronic types and the smug satisfaction of the Aero types.

(in reply to timtom)
Post #: 26
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/30/2010 11:13:07 PM   
TheElf


Posts: 3870
Joined: 5/14/2003
From: Pax River, MD
Status: offline 		Wait! This cannot be! You mean to tell me the long and dearly held position that JFBs can OVER produce Japanese planes to the realm of lunacy isn't so?

Scholl will be devastated...No one tell him...

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Post #: 27
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/30/2010 11:26:57 PM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
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From: Virginia, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: TheElf

Wait! This cannot be! You mean to tell me the long and dearly held position that JFBs can OVER produce Japanese planes to the realm of lunacy isn't so?

Scholl will be devastated...No one tell him...


My lips are sealed.

(in reply to TheElf)
Post #: 28
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 11/30/2010 11:31:04 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
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Status: offline 		Don't worry The Elf, the forum has a long history of not letting facts get in the way of a good ( or bad ) rant.

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Well, that's that settled then.

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Post #: 29
RE: Question for those who have reached late in the war... - 12/1/2010 12:04:19 AM   
vonTirpitz


Posts: 511
Joined: 3/1/2005
From: Wilmington, NC
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: cap_and_gown

And I would venture you are wrong, if only because it takes time and supplies to build up like that, both for HI factories, engine factories, and plane factories. In addition, JFBs have a big temptation to hold off ramping up production on older, less capable models and waiting until better models come along. Finally, there is simply a hard ceiling on how many AC can be on the map based on the number and size of the various squadrons. It would make little sense to produce 6 or 7 times that amountif casualties do not justify it.


This seems to be a good summary of my planning strategy.

quote:

Yes, a valid point. That touches on another (related) subject - how easy it is to switch production between different aircraft. In this thread I was mainly looking at total production figures versus Real Life figures.

Another factor which affects which aircraft a player will build is hindsight, of course, but hindsight is hard to avoid in historical games like AE.

Andrew


Since JFB players pretty much expect to try and drag the war into 1945-46 much planning likely goes into stockpiling and producing to accomplish this. Historical production of airframes was driven by lessons just learned and more immediate needs as well as (many times poor) guesswork about future needs.


quote:

ORIGINAL: TheElf

Wait! This cannot be! You mean to tell me the long and dearly held position that JFBs can OVER produce Japanese planes to the realm of lunacy isn't so?

Scholl will be devastated...No one tell him...


I think that some will make the case that JFBs can OVER produce manpower or whatnot. They just can't do anything useful with the excess.

BTW. This thread remotely ties in with my query in the Air OOB thread about the Hickory. Albeit, it's a very minor detail concerning a nondescript airframe but I am truly curious about the production dates and models.

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Post #: 30
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