MengJiao
Posts: 232
Joined: 12/18/2010 Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: MechFO quote:
ORIGINAL: kirkgregerson MechFO, thanks for being one of the first to do some analysis. The issue here where did the sov rifle div gain some advantage over the attack 11th Panzer div in order to cause more loses to it? So lets do a simple list... people can fill in what I missed In German favor (attacker) - *exp (off the charts) - *moral - unit strength and unit formation type - terrain: mobile units love to fight in the open - defender not entrenched - *leadership In Sov favor - defending: some intrinsic game mod? (don't think always is the case in real ware fare) What did I miss? * indicates probably a large advantage quote:
ORIGINAL: JAMiAM I think what this battle represents is the Soviet air units catching the advancing columns off-guard, disrupting them with some good attack runs, while at the same time, the Rifle division's FOs called in some pre-targeted artillery barrages from the Gds Howitzer Rgt, which further delayed, disrupted, or broke off the attack of the Panzer division, giving the Rifle Division time to retreat in good order. Then, the commander of the Panzer Division (the player, in this case) lost his nerve and called off any further attacks and did not actively pursue the fleeing Russians. Rather simple, explainable, and realistic, during the course of a war with thousands of engagements - almost none of which ever went according to plan. Regardless of force matchup, a range of results should be always be possible, just not necessarily probable. After all, history is filled with examples of, on paper, underdogs winning a fight, it just doesn't happen very often. But what's not clear here is what actually happened in the first place, so there is no way to quantify what a reasonable distribution of results would look like. F.e. the factors you list influence the probability of events (below) 1, 2 and 3, but we can only infer which event took place from the casualty figures, and due to everything getting mashed up, there's a lot of fudge in them as well. Taking it apart, a Hasty Attack means: only a portion of the division (probably only the lead elements, say about a Regimental KG)try to pierce part of a defensive line, make the defenders positions untenable and force it to retreat. Reasonable (IMO) outcomes in the above scenario: 1) forced Retreat with exploitation: the lead KG is successful in dislocating the defences, follow on forces exploit the breach and overrun the Rear areas Expected results: fairly light German losses, medium Russian infantry losses, high gun losses, fairly heavy disruption of retreating units. 2) forced Retreat with no exploitation: the lead KG is successful in dislocating the defences, but proper exploitation is not possible due to the time needed to clear the break in area of resistance Expected results: fairly light German losses, medium Russian infantry losses, low gun losses, fairly heavy disruption of retreating units. 3) successful defence: the lead KG is stopped cold by the defenders, everybody stays where they are Expected results: fairly heavy German losses, light to medium Russian losses What bugs me is that the losses on both sides indicate 3) happened (very heavy German losses considering the forces actually involved) while the "Retreat" message IMO indicates that 1) or 2) happened. IMO 3) "could" happen now and then, if not very often, but casualty figures don't add up either way. couldn't the defending division have conducted a delaying action? so its a planned withdrawal after contact. The Attackers are forced to deploy something, they get shelled, they hit some withdrawing troops, their artillery isn't heavily engaged and losses are about equal. The attackers may never have been quite sure of the size or location of most of the defending forces.
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