JWE
Posts: 6580
Joined: 7/19/2005 Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: FatR 1)Japanese ASW. Holy ****. You can't believe it until you see it. The best result I noticed was kaibokan No.205 sinking one sub and near-sinking (damage into 80s) another in one phase. In the deep water She ran out of DCs for the main array too, otherwise it would have been two clear sinkings in one phase. And that with crew EXP less than 50. While American boats are quite accurate with their attacks, they don't seem to have much of advantage in avoiding detection, compared to early war. And if you get spotted by one of these E-class monsters, you are toast. Now, I'm all for giving JFBs the ability to conduct an effective ASW campaign, if they invest appropriate effort and approach the whole thing meticulously. But "Just send your E-class ships to sea!" strikes me as an unsatisfyingly simplistic solution. What can we do about it? We don't know how chances for detecting a sub are determined, so I propose reducing the accuracy of Type 2 DCs to 8 overall (other ships that carry them aren't as lethal as kaibokans, but still can sink subs even in deep water more often that I like) and introducing a subset of Type 2 DCs specifically for E-class escorts, that has accuracy further reduced to 7, to reflect that simple increase in the number of devices does not give an arithmetic increase in effectiveness. I mean, air combat suffers from this problem too, for certain planes, but at least there the problem doesn't break the whole equation. There's a three part answer to this. Unfortunately, all the parts have to play together, so it's not simple, but it is doable with some thought. It's a combination of a math thing and an engine/data interaction thing. 1) math thing - yes, lots of launchers show a power law result in the chance to hit. The more launchers, the more times the hit routine is called, so the waaaay better chance that one of them will get a hit. In DaBabes, we reduced the # of launchers from 12 to 6 for the late war C and D 'E'-types. Indeed, they had 12 launchers historically, and they were pretty bad juju, but as far as we can determine, they popped those off in salvos of 6 (right half, or left half, or front half-both sides, or back half-both sides). So we cut the launchers in half, but doubled the ammo. So they get exactly what they had in terms of total DCs, but the sequential hit probability is now based on a smaller number - makes it better, lots better, but still doesn't quite get to the brass ring. 2) engine/data interaction thing - you may have noticed the 'messages' that say 'so-and-so sub dives deep and escapes'. Ok, cool; it happened. But there is an interaction between the "depth" of a DC (the DC Range parameter) and the "depth" a sub can go (10x its Durability parameter). Now, in stock, later war Japanese DCs (like the Type-2) have "Depths" of 475', while the best US subs can only dive deep to 300'. In DaBabes, the later war US subs can dive deep to 410', while the Type-2 DC bottoms out at 357'. That doesn't mean those subs are immune, it just means that if they can avoid the first stonk, they have a better chance of avoiding the rest. They are still vulnerable to the first stonk, which is why we decreased the launcher numbers to compensate. 3) accuracy thing - the simplest, but also the hardest to dink with. Accuracy is a small number, so when you roll dice against it the values converge rather quickly. When you divide by 2 and take an integer, there's not much difference between 2 and 5; and 1 (Exp)4 is still 1. Probably best to leave accuracy alone, in this case. Now, I understand that what I'm saying is a bit vague, and does not answer the question specifically. I'm skating on some thin ice about not revealing algorithms here, but the hints are a synopsis of what a good math person could eventually figure out, so why not provide a short cut. Hope these comments are helpful. Ciao.
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