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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/11/2011 1:34:13 AM

Canoerebel

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1/27/42

Luzon: The Japanese try an improvident shock attack at Clark Field; improvident because (1) they didn't regularly bomb the base to prevent forts from going all the way to four, and (2) they didn't try a deliberate attack first to gauge the level of opposition. Here's what happened:

Ground combat at Clark Field (79,76)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 64544 troops, 675 guns, 391 vehicles, Assault Value = 2252

Defending force 47568 troops, 667 guns, 643 vehicles, Assault Value = 1668

Japanese adjusted assault: 1400

Allied adjusted defense: 3637

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 4)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
8763 casualties reported
Squads: 209 destroyed, 139 disabled
Non Combat: 255 destroyed, 520 disabled
Engineers: 31 destroyed, 113 disabled
Guns lost 14 (5 destroyed, 9 disabled)
Vehicles lost 165 (28 destroyed, 137 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Allied ground losses:
2056 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 135 disabled
Non Combat: 7 destroyed, 116 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 11 disabled

Impact: The Allies are beginning to run low on supply, but the IJA divisions were treated pretty harshly. Steve will have to rest his troops for quite some time, intensify his air campaign, and he may consider bringing in reinforcements. Four IJA divisions (the fourth was at Singapore on 1/10) have now taken a beating. I don't think Steve would want't to go for an auto victory knockout punch in Oz or India without most of his divisiions available, so this leads me to believe that no massive operation will be underway in the near future. Thus, the Allies will continue efforts to feed troops in eastern Sumatra.

Western DEI: Tonight is a critical as three transports TFs are due to arrive at Oosthaven, carrying two UK brigades and an Indian brigade. All three of them are prepped for Palembang. If I get them ashore, Palembang's AV will go to something near 1200. With good forts and supplies, and with units now reaching 60 prep, the Japanese might need seven to nine divisions to deal with this fortress by the time they move on it, at least if they want it within a reasonable time. The Singers garrison has reached 904 AV (3.71 forts). Holding this is a big safety valve because it prevents Japan from sidestepping Sumatra to move on a nearly defenseless India. I don't think major IJA reinforcements have arrived since the botched shock assault on the 10th, so this turned out to be a major road block.

Eastern DEI: Much more IJ activity from Kendari and Ambon. I'm keeping fingers crossed that Steve is focusing on Timor or NW Oz.

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Post #: 391

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/11/2011 2:01:44 PM

Canoerebel

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1/28/42

Western DEI: Most of the two UK brigades are ashore at Oosthaven. They will move to Palembang over the next few days. 100th Indian Brigade didn't begin unloading, but should by tomorrow. It too will move on to Palembang. The next waves of transports (carrying two Oz brigades to Oosthaven and an Indian brigade to Padang) are south of Sabang now, so just five or six days away from port. The Allies have lifted most of the portable troops from Java, Borneo, and the islands to the east over to Sumatra. I'm switching some of the patrol squadrons back to search missions, now, hoping to get warning before the next IJN raids (or invasion).

Burma: A large IJA stack is nearing Moulmein. The Allies continue their methodical steps to pull back ahead of the enemy. If I had more political points, I'd fight at Rangoon, but everything I have has gone to Sumatra. A newly arrived Aussie brigade is destined for Port Blair once I have some xAPs at Aden and assuming Port Blair is still open at the time. Without them, Port Blair will have an AV of about 80. With them, the AV would climb to about 200, which would require some major work by Japan, rather than a quick strike.

India: This theater seems vacant as the Allies have pulled out so much to send to Sumatra. Karachi has 300 AV, Bombay a bit more than 200, and Calcutta about 200. The American reinforcments will begin arriving at Capetown in about a month.

China: Japan seems to have pulled back from the Nanyang front (east of Sian). I suspect the Japanese may concentrate for a stab at Changsha or Hengyang.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 392

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/11/2011 5:14:24 PM

Prydwen

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I've been a lurker off and on for years. I've always liked your AAR's. I've spent the past couple days getting caught up and I'll be following this one at least until I deploy again. I may even try my hand at a game sooner or later.

Best of luck! Back to lurking! :P

~ItsAMadHouse

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Post #: 393

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/11/2011 6:13:11 PM

paullus99

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Wow - that attack at Clark was a major boondoggle. He may be forced to bring in an extra division just to try to keep up the momentum (or at least avoid a repeat performance). He still doesn't appear to be serious about Singapore (reinforcing Port Blair is a good idea - just in case).

Beyond troops, what does your air power look like? If you can serious contest the skies over Palembang as well, you're going to really put the monkey in his wench....

How do things look in the east / southeast areas of the map? Any reinforcing actions on Fiji or the Line Islands?

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Post #: 394

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/11/2011 6:20:19 PM

Canoerebel

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1) Air power is a problem I'm working on. I have lots of Dutch squadrons plus two elements of the AVG, and I have American squadrons on the way, but I only have a few airfields and limited base forces. I need engineers at Palembang and Oosthaven (and elsewhere, but that's not going to happen short term) to help build forts and fields. They're on the way. But if the enemy attacks in a major way withiin the next month to six weeks, I think he'll achieve air superiority.

2) All units in India are moving forward to Sumatra. The vaccuum is being filled by all unrestricted American units that arrive as reinforcements. That means I have nothing going to the Pacific. I would if I could, but I don't have any extra political points, so I've chosen my course. So far, the enemy hasn't taken advantage of my weakenesses there, but I'd be content if he concentrated there rather than Sumatra. The game could be won or lost in the DEI, but not in SoPac or CenPac.

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Post #: 395

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/11/2011 7:34:09 PM

JohnDillworth

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quote:

Wow - that attack at Clark was a major boondoggle. He may be forced to bring in an extra division just to try to keep up the momentum (or at least avoid a repeat performance).

I think this was lack of prep. at least one of those divisions was prepped for another location. I guess he didn't want to break the prep and brought in troops with zero prep for the target they were attacking. This boy is digging quite a hole for himself.

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Post #: 396

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/11/2011 7:38:30 PM

JohnDillworth

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quote:

All units in India are moving forward to Sumatra. The vaccuum is being filled by all unrestricted American units that arrive as reinforcements. That means I have nothing going to the Pacific. I would if I could, but I don't have any extra political points, so I've chosen my course. So far, the enemy hasn't taken advantage of my weakenesses there, but I'd be content if he concentrated there rather than Sumatra. The game could be won or lost in the DEI, but not in SoPac or CenPac.

I believe you have seen divisions prepping for New Zealand. This might indicate that a major thrust is being planned for the SW Pacific If your opponent ever gets his S%&t together with his opening conquests you might be caught short. I know you get some significant reinforcements if he attacks New Zealand, but it will take a while before they are in place.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/11/2011 7:44:58 PM

Canoerebel

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John, you have a good memory. IJA 4th Division, currently at Clark Field, was recently reported prepping for Auckland.

I have no way to defend New Zealand against a major attack, and no way to change that in the next six months. I don't want to lose NZ, but I have positions to defend that carry a higher value and priority. NZ is kind of an "appendix" for Japan. Devote alot of effort and time there and Japan is likely to suffer an acute bout of appendicitis.

If the Allies somehow still hold eastern Sumatra by early autumn 1942, Japan has committed seppuku.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/11/2011 9:01:55 PM

JohnDillworth

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I believe your strategy of defending New Zealand in Sumatra will be most successful. Looking at the board, I can't see any likely turn of events that would turn this game in your opponents favor. If you were playing the Japanese now what would you do? Unless he were to go all out in India I don't see anything

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/11/2011 9:03:03 PM

Canoerebel

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1/29/42

Western DEI: The Indian brigade is ashore and nearly all the transports carrying the three units (the other two being UK brigades that unloaded a few days ago) are on the way back to India. Another wave of reinforcements are about four days out. I'll try a fighter ambush at Singapore tomorrow - 89 fighters including about 40 of the AVG; the rest a mishmash of Buffales and P-40s. I've also ordered the B-17s to hit the airfield at Mersing.

NoPac: IJ transports are heading in to Amchitka. I don't have anythying with which to counter, and it's possible that IJN carriers are lurking nearby.

Elsewhere: The apparent quiet prevails as the Allies continue efforts to reinforce Sumatra and to get troops from America to India.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/11/2011 9:20:14 PM

Canoerebel

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John, if I were an omnipotent IJ player in this game, I'd have to go all out vs. India or Oz. Anything else is not as important as a permanent or nearly permanent Allied lodgement in eastern Sumatra; not only because it affects long-term supply, but because failing to take it would give the Allies a big foothold in Japan's heartland in late 1942 - the Allies wouldn't have to claw tooth and nail to get started on the offensives in '43 or '44, they'd already be there.

If Steve doesn't get organized to push for India or Oz in a huge way, he's going to move about in disjointed ways, picking off some places that please him but that don't mean a whole lot in the overall scheme of things. He'll eventually get around to Sumatra, take some lumps there, but probably take it by late spring or summer. Then, he'll go over on the defensive where I think he'll be a tough opponent.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/11/2011 10:39:59 PM

crsutton

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Never mind..... I wish I could just delete a post....

< Message edited by crsutton -- 4/11/2011 10:40:20 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/11/2011 10:57:53 PM

jeffk3510

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That attack on Clark was naaasty.. Why did he do a shock attack FIRST after not bombing?

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/11/2011 11:06:07 PM

crsutton

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John, if I were an omnipotent IJ player in this game, I'd have to go all out vs. India or Oz. Anything else is not as important as a permanent or nearly permanent Allied lodgement in eastern Sumatra; not only because it affects long-term supply, but because failing to take it would give the Allies a big foothold in Japan's heartland in late 1942 - the Allies wouldn't have to claw tooth and nail to get started on the offensives in '43 or '44, they'd already be there.

If Steve doesn't get organized to push for India or Oz in a huge way, he's going to move about in disjointed ways, picking off some places that please him but that don't mean a whole lot in the overall scheme of things. He'll eventually get around to Sumatra, take some lumps there, but probably take it by late spring or summer. Then, he'll go over on the defensive where I think he'll be a tough opponent.

Well, my experience in my campaign gives me a different view. Given the resources in this scenario, I no longer think that any Allied player can prevent the loss of China. So taking out China would be my primary objective as a Japanese player. The ramifications of freeing up millions of troops for service elsewhere are big. And a major attack in China does not require the fleet or the majority of your airforce so you are free to expand elsewhere with little or no risk..

Then taking North OZ is a must and easy to do it you do not tarry. However, once you take Northern OZ out to Port Headland then you only need about four or five divisions (with plenty of mobile troops) to hold it for a very long time. Allied supply will not flow overland past Tennant Creek. You have to retake Northern OZ by sea and as the Allied player there are just too many other needs.

So the question is what else to do. I think the Japanese player can go for India and have a good shot at autovictory. If not then I would only take Celyon to kill off troops and hold until I have to evac it later in the year. Once again with a strong Japanese garrison in North Burma any Allied overland attack just runs short of supply and to mount serious seaborn invasions out of India (I just did!) pulls resources from the Pacific that are sorely needed there.

I think that if KB remains intact I would not take New Zealand but rather take Suva, Noumea and Pago Pago and then work to delay the Allied counter attack. Except for advancing far enough out of the Solomons this is what Viperpol has done in our game and it seems to be working well enough for him

. The most amazing thing to me is that we are rounding out 1943 and I am nowhere near air superiorty. It is just amazing how many planes can be produced by the Japanese player. It is the possible loss of China and this massive airforce that makes the road back to Manila look very tough.

The real issue is autovictory. I hate the concept so much that it colors my stragetic thinking. As the Japanese player, I would be looking to build my perimeter as best I could to hold off the counter attack. I would never shoot for autovictory as I just don't like it.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/11/2011 11:15:19 PM

GreyJoy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John, if I were an omnipotent IJ player in this game, I'd have to go all out vs. India or Oz. Anything else is not as important as a permanent or nearly permanent Allied lodgement in eastern Sumatra; not only because it affects long-term supply, but because failing to take it would give the Allies a big foothold in Japan's heartland in late 1942 - the Allies wouldn't have to claw tooth and nail to get started on the offensives in '43 or '44, they'd already be there.

If Steve doesn't get organized to push for India or Oz in a huge way, he's going to move about in disjointed ways, picking off some places that please him but that don't mean a whole lot in the overall scheme of things. He'll eventually get around to Sumatra, take some lumps there, but probably take it by late spring or summer. Then, he'll go over on the defensive where I think he'll be a tough opponent.

Well, my experience in my campaign gives me a different view. Given the resources in this scenario, I no longer think that any Allied player can prevent the loss of China. So taking out China would be my primary objective as a Japanese player. The ramifications of freeing up millions of troops for service elsewhere are big. And a major attack in China does not require the fleet or the majority of your airforce so you are free to expand elsewhere with little or no risk..

Then taking North OZ is a must and easy to do it you do not tarry. However, once you take Northern OZ out to Port Headland then you only need about four or five divisions (with plenty of mobile troops) to hold it for a very long time. Allied supply will not flow overland past Tennant Creek. You have to retake Northern OZ by sea and as the Allied player there are just too many other needs.

So the question is what else to do. I think the Japanese player can go for India and have a good shot at autovictory. If not then I would only take Celyon to kill off troops and hold until I have to evac it later in the year. Once again with a strong Japanese garrison in North Burma any Allied overland attack just runs short of supply and to mount serious seaborn invasions out of India (I just did!) pulls resources from the Pacific that are sorely needed there.

I think that if KB remains intact I would not take New Zealand but rather take Suva, Noumea and Pago Pago and then work to delay the Allied counter attack. Except for advancing far enough out of the Solomons this is what Viperpol has done in our game and it seems to be working well enough for him . The most amazing thing to me is that we are rounding out 1943 and I am nowhere near air superiorty. It is just amazing how many planes can be produced by the Japanese player. It is the possible loss of China and this massive airforce that makes the road back to Manila look very tough.

The real issue is autovictory. I hate the concept so much that it colors my stragetic thinking. As the Japanese player, I would be looking to build my perimeter as best I could to hold off the counter attack. I would never shoot for autovictory as I just don't like it.

In my game against Rader i'm ready to lose the whole China theatre by Feb 42...and i fully agree with you. There's no way an allied player (even if more exp than me) could seriously hold China if an exp jap player really commits in scen 2.
And with China strongly in Japs' hands...well...imagine how much arty, tanks, and air assets you can devote to the pacific, India or Oz...

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/11/2011 11:38:46 PM

Canoerebel

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I have a decent record in China, though I haven't had an opponent go all out as GreyJoy is experiencing at the moment. I'm keeping tabs on China and my current assessment is that Steve is concentrating for an attack in the Changsha/Hengyang vector. The problem for him is that I successfully pulled my armies back and have them on good terrain. My guys are actively building forts. He might bludgeon me, but it's going to take him a long, long time and cost him dearly. If he goes all out in China, he'll never finish off Sumatra before then end of '42, and then he's in trouble. I think I'd tradeChina for eastern Sumatra, though I'd rather not lose China.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/11/2011 11:39:12 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/12/2011 3:03:25 PM

Canoerebel

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1/30/42

The long quiet continues, though no doubt Japan is up to something somewhere. My best guesses are Timor or Luganville at the moment, either of which would suit me.

Western DEI: All transports that brought reinforcements have departed. AV at Oosthaven is 737; Palembang has 887. I'm shuffling some units around at the moment, so that Pal will soon increase to about 1200 while Oost drops to about 400. The next wave of reinforcements (Aussie brigades for each of Oost and Pal) plus an Indian brigade for Padang are making their final approaches, due to arrive in four days or less. Following them, some base forces and engineers units are east of Ceylon and should arrive in a week to nine days. The Allied fighter ambush at Singapore was relatively uneventful. Japan lost perhaps eight aircraft, the Allies two.

What will Japan Do? I think Steve will detect the big build up on Sumatra and react violently (as opposed to bypassing the island and striking deeper). I should add that I'm planning for the unexpected, though. If my first hunch is right, it will take Brad quite some time to assemble the troops needed to vanquish the Allies. I'd expect him to land at Oosthaven, which by then should have 500 AV and two CD units. Palembang will have at least 1300 AV, perhaps as much as 1500. I have Indian brigades at Benkolen and Padang, mainly to guard against paratroop assaults.

Long Term Allied Plans: The American carriers are on the way to theater, though they may be three weeks away (all four left Tahiti for Adelaide within the past three days). CVL Hermes and CV Victorious are currently on station west of Cacos Island. My hope is that I can spring an ambush either on a Mini KB force or an invasion force bound for Sumatra. A successful major strike would really affect Steve's morale, causing him to regroup and delay further. American units are on the way to Capetown from USA (the first two of many just arrived - two AA units). If they aren't needed to defend India, then the Allies would consider reinforcing Sumatra or possible an offensive operation in Burma or Malaya. But that's quite some time from now. The only other offensive operation I'm considering is an invasion of Amchitka Island. I have lots of restricted troops prepping, but it would take some kind of oddity to have the political points needed to buy them.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/12/2011 7:08:39 PM

Canoerebel

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1/31/42

Borneo: It's the end of January and the Allies still hold every base on island of Borneo. Yes, I know the fuel situation in Scenario Two makes the DEI less important to Japan....but, still...you'd think Japan would have acquired a few of these easy bases along the way. The failure to take Singkawang, Kuching, Banjermasin, or Balikpan has permitted Allied shipping to move relatively freely through the Java Sea and into and out of the key ports of Soerabaja, Batavia, and Oosthaven.

Western DEI: Troops have finished shuffling about. Current deployment has Oosthaven with 462 AV (2.61 forts); Palembang with 1179 (3.23 forts) and Singers with 917 (3.72 forts). The Japanese have reinforced the army at Singers, but only with additional regiments, not any whole divisions. The Japanese have about 2300 AV on site now. I'd love to reinforce the port a bit to try to make Japan's dalliance even more costly to its progress. I might devote part of the Indian brigades at Benkolen and (soon-to-arrive) at Padang to such an effort. I only need about 50 AV at each of those bases to ward off paratroop assaults. I think I could spare 50 to 100 AV to beef up Singers, which has a good supply situation (42k). The next wave of reinforcements is getting pretty close.

Eastern DEI: No moves by Japan yet, but I'm expecting something soon.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/12/2011 11:09:38 PM

Canoerebel

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2/1/42

Eastern DEI: Massive IJ naval presence at Kendari, including many combat ships and light/escort carriers. Given Kendari's location, likely targets of such a force would be Java or northwestern Oz. Timor is a possibility, though he doesn't need forces this large. SW Oz is also a possibility, though Steve hasn't yet shown a propensity for taking major risks.

Western DEI: Quiet except for sizeable enemy bombing raid against Singapore, where the Allied AV is up to 925. An Indian brigade will land at Padang, Sumatra, tonight and tomorrow. Two Aussie regiments are no more than three days out of Oosthaven (AV 465). I've moved a few units out of Palembang to cover the two bases to either side. They can return quickly, and the total AV available at Pal right now is 1181.

Burma: The enemy took a vacant Moulmein - just regiments present (no divisions) totaling about 425 AV.

China: Quiet as the enemy reshuffles his units. I think he's concentrating for a huge push vs. Changsha or Hengyang. That's just a hunch based primarily on the fact that his large army formerly around Nanyang withdrew to the south and east.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/13/2011 3:01:46 PM

Canoerebel

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2/2/42

Some popping all over the map.

Coral Sea: The KB stumbles across a picket xAKL in the northern Coral Sea (SE of Rossell Island). Before it gets sunk by enemy strike aircraft later in the day, the brave little ship reports the presence of Shukaku, Zuikaku, Hiryu, CA Aoba, and BB Kirishima. Interesting that the first two carriers have moved this far after recent work in the Aleutians. Given the position and SE course of this force, I'm guessing it's either raiders or an amphibious group bound for Luganville or New Caledonia. I'm moving vulnerable shipping out of the way. I would like it very much if Japan was focusing alot of effort over coming weeks and months in SoPac (and this dovetails with SigInt reports that 4th Div., currently at Clark Field, is prepping for Auckland).

Eastern DEI: The massive IJ naval presence at Kendari remains in place. I'm expecting a move any time. I'd prefer the move be vs. Oz or Timor rather than Java.

Western DEI: 99th Indian Brigade is mostly ashore at Padang. Two Oz brigades should begin unloading at Oosthaven tomorrow or the following day. A UK brigade, RN base force, and Bombay engineers are on transports just four or five days away. A Brit recce unit and Madras engineers are on transports south of Sabang, so they too are getting close. This is probably the end of the major forces I'll have time to commit to Sumatra unless Steve really delays. If he doesn't apply pressure on Sumatra or India, or if he heads towards Oz or SoPac in a major way, the Allies might have time to bolster the garrisons or make a move on Malaya.

China: The Japanaese are definately concentrating for a move on the Changsha/Hengyang front. I have interior lines and can get around 3500 AV at Changsha with an equal amount at Kweilin. I can shift troops around easier than Japan can, so I'm confident, but not assured, of being able to handle things.

Philippines: The Allies advanced out of central Mindanao and reclaimed Cagayan, nearly destroying an IJ naval guard in the process. I like this, because it serves as another reminder to Steve that the Allies will sting when given a chance. Also received an important piece of SigInt pertaining to Clark Field (see below).

SoPac: Japanese invade and take Nauru Island.

American Carriers: beginning to close on southern NZ from the east, I'll keep them moving well to the south. They are bound for Adelaide to refuel, then into the Indian Ocean in hopes of getting a chance to ambush the Mini KB.

SigInt: The bloody repulse of three IJA divisions at Clark Field led to a report that a fourth (53rd) is on a maru bound for Iba. This is big news - it further reduces the possibility that Japan has committed a massive army to some major operation that could threaten my strategic well being. It also shows that Steve is scrambling to address the situation on Luzon. In other words, Japan isn't a well-oiled machine; it's sputtering around leaking time, resources, and momentum.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/13/2011 3:47:51 PM

John 3rd

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NUTS! Just don't understand this opponent and his 'vision.' Palembang WILL be a disaster for Japan. Why not make the moves needed to take the most important locations to keep the economy running?!

I've limited myself to just your AAR Dan because I might really get into trouble on his. Figured it is safer to read just yours and have only your perspective.

Your opening moves must truly have thrown him off and I don't think he has ever recovered. In many ways you have the initiative. When your US CVs reach their destination, I'd use them to crush the Japanese upcoming thrust into NW Australia. My .02...

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/13/2011 4:04:32 PM

Cribtop

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I have to concur. Dan, has he even reconned anything in Sumatra yet? I guess the only base he has in range is Johore Baru.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/13/2011 7:17:45 PM

Bullwinkle58

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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

NUTS! Just don't understand this opponent and his 'vision.' Palembang WILL be a disaster for Japan. Why not make the moves needed to take the most important locations to keep the economy running?!

I've limited myself to just your AAR Dan because I might really get into trouble on his. Figured it is safer to read just yours and have only your perspective.

Your opening moves must truly have thrown him off and I don't think he has ever recovered. In many ways you have the initiative. When your US CVs reach their destination, I'd use them to crush the Japanese upcoming thrust into NW Australia. My .02...

I AM reading both sides, so just . . .

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/13/2011 7:38:56 PM

John 3rd

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I've always tried to stay away from both sides of an AAR because I know the dangers of my own big mouth! I followed Dan's last game on both sides and it was difficult. "Control, Control, you MUST learn Control" as good ole Master Yoda might say...

< Message edited by John 3rd -- 4/13/2011 7:39:43 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/13/2011 8:02:49 PM

Canoerebel

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2/3/42

Thanks, gents, for the comments. As to John's question, Steve has been reconning Palembang for about a week now. He must know there are a bunch of units there. What he makes of that I don't know. Also, John, there is some pretty persuasive thinking out there that in Scenario Two the DEI's resources aren't vital at all to Japan for a long, long time. I think this has been analyzed/discussed at length by players including Nemo, Alfred, and crustton. If that's true - and I find their arguments persuasive - then Japan can perhaps shift objectives, but of course its a given that whatever Japan ends up focusing on should be at least as valuable to it as the DEI would be, or else why do it? It's also incumbent on Japan not to delay so long that the Allies end up keeping a major foothold in the DEI into late '42. Why give the Allies a forward base from which it is much easier to employ LBA to make advances into the heartland? Whether Steve is risking that at this point, I don't know, but I"m trying to increase the odds in my favor.

Coral Sea: KB moves closer to Luganville, where Japan lands what seems to be a small force, probably by fast transport.

Eastern DEI: Movement by enemy torpedo boats and a stout combat TF including CAs Kumano and Suzuya sink a handful of xAKL near Balikpan and a few Dutch PT boats. No movement of transports from or past Kendari, yet. This is something I'm expecting soon.

Western DEI: The two Aussie brigades unloaded at Oosthaven (one will move on to Palembang). BB Royal Sovereign just arrived in theater. Once Japan manages to take Luzon, which should be awhile, Steve will have four divisions with which to play. At this point, my suspicion is that it won't be until then that he moves on Palembang. My goal is to create the strongest possible base garrisons there in the meantime, and to have carriers and combat ships in theater in case an opportunity arises to strike.

China: SigInt reports 3rd Div. prepping for Changsha, which corroborates the hunch I mentioned yesterday. I started moving some units from Sian back towards Kienko/Chungking, where they will serve as a reserve force in the event of an enemy breakthrough. But I am very cautiously optimistic that I have enough troops to protect the MLR from Changsha to Hengyang to Kweilin.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/13/2011 8:52:44 PM

witpqs

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CR,

I made no attempt to commit the time frames cited in the analysis to memory, but even in Scenario 1 the DEI is not vital for a long, long time. The whole point of Treespider's mod and the mod work of others (see the modding sub-forum) is to 1) better represent the stresses on the economies and 2) on the merchant fleets. In Treespider's mod this hits both sides, with Allied supply being reduced most especially in the early going (and ramping up gradually), reduced carrying capacity of merchant ships (both sides), and with some greater fuel & resource carrying requirements for Japan. Work is still underway by several people looking at this.

The point is, most likely he can do what he wants to and go for Palembang, et al later if he so chooses.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/13/2011 8:55:40 PM

John 3rd

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I had no real idea that Scen Two was that far off the beaten track. OK. I'll throw out my earlier thoughts.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/13/2011 9:01:52 PM

Canoerebel

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That's the analysis I've been tailoring my play to, witpqs. But I think Fortress Palembang is important for at least three reasons:

1) It represents a better place to defend than either Soerabaja or Batavia due to terrain and supply, so you might as well (given time) transfer the Java/DEI troops to Palembang.

2) There is a risk Japan could bypass Sumatra and head right for a weakened India. That's a real risk the Aliled player has to consider and try to address. But if Japan doesn't do that, and instead follows a more traditional coure of action, Fortress Palembang should really slow them down and damage their units. It's a good way for the Aliled player to exact a toll.

3) If Japan really messes up and doesn't attend to a Fortress Palembang in a timely manner, the Allies could start their "phase" of the game with an advanced, powerful platform with multiple interlocking bases and airfields supported by a supply-generating base. I would give my right arm to be able to kick off the Allied offensive-phase of the game from such an advanced position. I'd gladly sacrifice less vital places (New Zealand, Line Islands, etc.) if it gave me that advantage.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/13/2011 9:02:28 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/13/2011 9:31:50 PM

Bullwinkle58

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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

CR,

I made no attempt to commit the time frames cited in the analysis to memory, but even in Scenario 1 the DEI is not vital for a long, long time.

However, a lot of that analysis mixes in other assumptions about NOT ignoring Borneo. I don't have the numbers handy either, but with no Borneo, no northern Sumatra, no Soerbaja, and no P-bang the fuel issues get testy sooner than later. My recollection was the anlayzers never thought a Japanese player wouldn't pick up Borneo, which should be available for a song. At least eastern Borneo, Force Z notwithstanding on the western side as in this game.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/13/2011 10:15:29 PM

witpqs

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

CR,

I made no attempt to commit the time frames cited in the analysis to memory, but even in Scenario 1 the DEI is not vital for a long, long time.

However, a lot of that analysis mixes in other assumptions about NOT ignoring Borneo. I don't have the numbers handy either, but with no Borneo, no northern Sumatra, no Soerbaja, and no P-bang the fuel issues get testy sooner than later. My recollection was the anlayzers never thought a Japanese player wouldn't pick up Borneo, which should be available for a song. At least eastern Borneo, Force Z notwithstanding on the western side as in this game.

True, but those places only mitigate the time involved. Even ignoring them the time frame is way longer than I had assumed.

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