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RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg

 
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RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/21/2011 11:33:29 PM   
Klydon


Posts: 2251
Joined: 11/28/2010
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Apollo11

Hi all,

"Senno", Oleg posted in his AAR that you plan to resign?!?!


IMHO that would not be good idea - the process of learning is the process of making mistakes and trying to fix them by continuing to play!

Thus I strongly encourage you to continue (even though you think you might be in big trouble in blizzard and suffer greatly) because this is the best way you learn new things!!!


Leo "Apollo11"


+1

Even if you plan on playing the Russians in the future (based on a post you made some time back about thinking you may be better suited for the Russians), it is important to learn and get a feel for what your opponent can and can't do and first hand experience is big.

I think a lot of us are surprised you are thinking of resigning.

(in reply to Apollo11)
Post #: 241
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/22/2011 2:12:45 AM   
Pipewrench


Posts: 453
Joined: 1/5/2010
Status: offline 		feel no shame if you have to hit the reset button, but if I could peek your interest would you be open to calling a cease-fire during the blizzard with oleg to get an idea on attrition losses with your final dispositions and also see if you can launch a couple of offensives in 42?

if it is a waste of time in your opinion , I digress.



(in reply to Klydon)
Post #: 242
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/22/2011 4:40:52 AM   
jomni


Posts: 2827
Joined: 11/19/2007
Status: offline 		What?  You're resigning!  This is the only AAR that I follow intently just because you're the underdog that fights back!

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(in reply to Pipewrench)
Post #: 243
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/22/2011 11:41:47 AM   
british exil


Posts: 1686
Joined: 5/4/2006
From: Lower Saxony Germany
Status: offline 		OKH does not accept your resignation. The Führer will not be pleased, as well as your helpful Generals and those who remained silent and enjoyed your AAR.

Please rethink your resignation.

Mat

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(in reply to jomni)
Post #: 244
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/25/2011 3:50:53 PM   
Oleg Mastruko


Posts: 4921
Joined: 10/21/2000
Status: offline 		Nice AAR and lots of good discussion topics being raised! I am reading it for the first time now.... I think it's fair for me to read it now as there's been a week since Senno's surrender/resignation letter, and he's not replying to any of the arm twisting to continue the game, which is a pity.

In fact, in his last e-mail he said: "You can have the last word in the AAR's, if you desire."

Like others, I think he made interesting comeback after a sub-optimal start and, if nothing, it was a great learning AAR with lots of good questions being asked and answered, probably one of the better threads for starting German players to read. Pity he didn't continue.

Anyhow, I am starting a new game in place of this (I have "mental slots" for 3-4 games, no more than that). Senno, if you're reading this, and happen to reconsider and continue the game after all, or let someone take over, let me know. It will then be somewhat of a mental overkill (fifth game), but I'll do my best.

The game started in place of this could be interesting - Big Anorak the beta tester is Axis, I am Soviet, we are playing something new - 43 GC, random weather etc.

(in reply to british exil)
Post #: 245
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/25/2011 3:58:53 PM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 7336
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline 		I would have at least continued until Leningrad fell, for practice and satisfaction. He was across the Neva (I think you made a mistake there Oleg with your lack of heavy forts), which meant Ostinovets, and by extension Leningrad, was doomed. No matter what happens elsewhere, taking Leningrad ensures at least an OK Summer campaign, though it's not at all a fatal blow for the Reds. Far from it actually.

He was bogged-down in the south big-time, can't tell but probably because he failed to bag much of Southwest Front on Turn 1-2.

But other than the Ukraine, he was doing at least OK.

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(in reply to Oleg Mastruko)
Post #: 246
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 3/29/2011 2:27:59 PM   
Apollo11


Posts: 24082
Joined: 6/7/2001
From: Zagreb, Croatia
Status: offline 		Hi all,

Shame that this one died...


Leo "Apollo11"

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(in reply to Q-Ball)
Post #: 247
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 4/16/2011 4:37:19 PM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Hmm, not quite flat-lined, it seems.

After reading about the collapse of BA's and Oleg's game, I decided to contact Oleg to see if he wanted to resurrect this game. He has agreed, so we will continue playing.

Had I read the PM from BA, I would have consented for him to take over the game.

Oleg has said that he's out of town on business for the next 4 days or so, so I don't know when I will get a turn back.

I'm not sure if I have proven German supermen with my own play.

But Oleg will have the chance to prove his Soviets are supermen now, at least. So the Superman in this is Oleg....

I only read the last page of his AAR, and don't know his dispositions. I think he read my AAR, but most of my dispositions are obvious, anyway. I have less than a Corps of Panzers that might still be hidden. I've rotated to keep them partially hidden, and to have a reaction force available should he decide to counter-attack.

It's to close to mud now, so everything will be committed. I believe I am close to hooking up with the Finns, Northern Leningrad will be taken next turn. I will have the Finns in place for blizzard defense in the north...

AGC = Going for Moscow, 2nd Panzer had one Corps do a build-up, but he's put masses in my way, I'm going to see how close I can get before mud, then decide if I want a pre-blizzard offensive in the Moscow area. Should I do as Hitler did and commit to a full offensive, or retreat back out and redistribute for winter?

I'm building forts around Leningrad, but he might get a roll for a Finnish surrender. got to re-read the rules on that, as well. I've got to be really careful with how I defend in AGN, for sure...

AGS = screwed. I'm just going to set up for winter defense now. Can't really dislodge him in the limited time available. I think he's going to head for Odessa, and try to get a Romanian surrender.

I have some defenses build along the upper Dnepr, but need to get some built in AGS.

Assuming I have an army left after his winter offensive, '42 will probably start with an assault on Moscow, with AGS second priority. AGN will be last priority going forward.

< Message edited by Senno -- 4/16/2011 9:08:57 PM >

(in reply to Apollo11)
Post #: 248
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 4/16/2011 4:39:15 PM   
PeeDeeAitch


Posts: 1276
Joined: 1/1/2007
From: Laramie, Wyoming
Status: offline 		Hey great to see you back.

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(in reply to Senno)
Post #: 249
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 4/16/2011 4:45:12 PM   
TulliusDetritus


Posts: 5521
Joined: 4/1/2004
From: The Zone™
Status: offline 		Welcome back, Senno. Good hunt!

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a nu cheeki breeki iv damke

(in reply to PeeDeeAitch)
Post #: 250
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 4/16/2011 4:50:50 PM   
Oleg Mastruko


Posts: 4921
Joined: 10/21/2000
Status: offline 		Games with Oleg never die, they just hibernate

With this short visit, I leave the thread to continue in my non-presence

(in reply to TulliusDetritus)
Post #: 251
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 4/16/2011 4:54:38 PM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

Welcome back, Senno. Good hunt!



quote:

ORIGINAL: PeeDeeAitch

Hey great to see you back.



Thanks.

I fear Oleg's upcoming winter offensive. But he should get the chance to smack my army around...

Not that I'm going to sit still and let him do it. I'm envisioning a fighting withdrawal along all fronts. He's going to have to spend some mp's to catch up to me. Not many, I'm just going to play defense like he has done.

(in reply to TulliusDetritus)
Post #: 252
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 4/16/2011 5:00:18 PM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Turn 16:

AGN:

Osinovets siezed. Elements of Fourth Panzer close in on the Finns east of Lake Ladoga.

The Corps borrowed from Second Army will reposition south of Lake Ilmen next turn.

Some defenses are laid down in Leningrad vicinity.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Senno -- 4/16/2011 6:01:42 PM >

(in reply to Senno)
Post #: 253
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 4/16/2011 5:01:55 PM   
TulliusDetritus


Posts: 5521
Joined: 4/1/2004
From: The Zone™
Status: offline 		Will he be using Big Anorak's blizzard rule? If the answer is "no" you might try to convince him

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a nu cheeki breeki iv damke

(in reply to Senno)
Post #: 254
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 4/16/2011 5:31:22 PM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

Will he be using Big Anorak's blizzard rule? If the answer is "no" you might try to convince him


Nah. He gets the chance to prove his "Soviet supermen" theory.

Gonna have a mobile defense though. He's gonna have to catch up to me every turn, some units may have enough for a deliberate attack, but not most units, for sure. That should limit how many successful attacks he has per turn.

I also need to try to limit how many hex-sides he can attack from...

< Message edited by Senno -- 4/16/2011 5:34:07 PM >

(in reply to TulliusDetritus)
Post #: 255
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 4/16/2011 6:11:09 PM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Turn 16:

AGN:

South of Lake Ilmen, Second Army has moved to contact, converting hexes to our control. This provides a bit more buffer for us during the Soviets offensive.

He will probably be able to conduct a general offensive along the entire front. I expect Leningrad to be the main goal in AGN, but he might be hoping to force a Finnish surrender by capturing Vyborg, Narva and Pskov. Reading how many guns he lined up onto BA in their '43 campaign is intimidating, lol. Not really sure how many he can put together for an offensive at this point of the game. It's gonna hurt, though. I know that for sure.







Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Senno -- 4/16/2011 6:23:31 PM >

(in reply to Senno)
Post #: 256
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 4/16/2011 7:17:02 PM   
TulliusDetritus


Posts: 5521
Joined: 4/1/2004
From: The Zone™
Status: offline 		Senno, I don't think forcing the Finns to surrender is a realistic goal, so you should be safe. I mean, I can't see how he would take Vyborg during the blizzard.

Oh, a favour please: could you toggle the controlled hexes on? We could easily see what's going on: thin corridors, salients, etc.

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a nu cheeki breeki iv damke

(in reply to Senno)
Post #: 257
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 4/16/2011 7:33:40 PM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

Senno, I don't think forcing the Finns to surrender is a realistic goal, so you should be safe. I mean, I can't see how he would take Vyborg during the blizzard.

Oh, a favour please: could you toggle the controlled hexes on? We could easily see what's going on: thin corridors, salients, etc.


I hope he can't take Vyborg.

Oops knew I forgot the toggle, sorry. Will remember it in future.

< Message edited by Senno -- 4/17/2011 12:00:36 AM >

(in reply to TulliusDetritus)
Post #: 258
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 4/16/2011 7:40:35 PM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Turn 16:

AGC:

Third Panzer and elements of Fourth Panzer tighen up the Mezha River Pocket. Not a ton of units in there, but it's decent compared to the pockets I've been able to form. Reducing it will also take some pressure off the rail line that's closing in on Vzyama now.

This screenie was taken before all movement was completed.

Moscow seems a bridge too far at this point. I'm really behind on getting a defense set up....








Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Senno -- 4/16/2011 7:44:37 PM >

(in reply to Senno)
Post #: 259
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 4/16/2011 7:54:55 PM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Turn 16:

AGC:

Elements of Second and Third Panzer for a smaller pocket south-east of Rzhev. We have cut the distance to Moscow in half again, but am running out of time before the mud hits. The Panzers remain in good to excellent shape, so a winter offensive is possible, before the blizzard hits...

Elements of 9th Army have also moved into position south-east of Rzhev to hold the supply lines open.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Senno -- 4/16/2011 7:57:09 PM >

(in reply to Senno)
Post #: 260
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 4/16/2011 8:03:06 PM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Turn 16:

AGC:

Southwest of Moscow elements of Second Panzer start to threaten Moscow, while starting to form a small secondary pocket.




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Senno)
Post #: 261
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 4/16/2011 8:23:11 PM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Turn 16:

AGC:

Fourth Army launches local attacks. And the little pocket that existed southwest of Vyazma has been closed down.

He's committed the airborne units into the line, which is a good thing from my point of view. His manpower must be getting low at this point, I hope. I'm also attacking his cavalry units and armored, as he's put them into the line for the defense of Moscow. I'm attacking the mobile units I see, hopeing that the intensity of his winter attacks are reduced from "annihilating" to "overwhelming", haha.

I hope to have an army of 2 million left come spring, basically..... Have 3.475 million now.





Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Senno -- 4/16/2011 8:51:45 PM >

(in reply to Senno)
Post #: 262
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 4/16/2011 8:26:09 PM   
Encircled


Posts: 2024
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline 		Welcome back Senno

What you need is that Bicycle Recon Battalion

It can win the war on its own

_____________________________


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Post #: 263
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 4/16/2011 8:32:37 PM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

Welcome back Senno

What you need is that Bicycle Recon Battalion

It can win the war on its own


Thanks.

LoL.


(in reply to Encircled)
Post #: 264
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 4/16/2011 8:35:55 PM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Turn 16

Pripyet Pocket:

The Prip pocket is finally reducted completely. The last 2 units lasted from turn 8 or so until now, both falling to hasty attacks. I'm not sure how many I trapped in there, lol, about 20 or so I suppose. Oleg never attacked with his surrounded units, but they've been a thorn in my side until now...

The preparations I've made along the Dnepr are now pictured. Given BA's prior calculations, I hope to not have to fall back behind this line.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Senno -- 4/16/2011 8:38:18 PM >

(in reply to Senno)
Post #: 265
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 4/16/2011 9:00:31 PM   
squatter

 

Posts: 1033
Joined: 6/24/2006
Status: offline 		I'm sure you've thought of all of this anyway, but in my experience, giving him three clear hexes per turn of blizzard to advance into will take the sting off the worst of it (after December, blizzard effects ease off a little). I dug a prepared line around 12 hexes behind the initial front line to fall back to where possible. Get some divs broke down to regiments to help your Fort units doing that asap. Three hexes means his deliberate attacks are almost impossible. You'll have the patch before blizzard though, so shouldnt be as painful.

Good terrain helps, obviously. Remember rivers freeze and are useless for defence in blizzard. That means the south is the hardest to defend. You can afford to let him make large salients in swathes of the mid/mid south map so you dont have to try and build a full fort line - that's impossible anyway. Come the spring, you'll appreciate having salients to attack anyways.

Keep hitting him with cheap deliberate attacks all the way through the snow, if not one or two limited pocket offensives. Dont get caught with units the wrong side of a un-reduced pocket on the first turn of blizzard.

Re: the Finns - they are become your best troops alongside your mountain units in blizzard. There's no way on earth he'll take Leningrad, or anything else in their sector. You can go over to the offensive with the Finns if he leaves anything north of their line, believe me. Push towards whatever that city is called in their zone through the snow and blizzard. Anything he throws at the Finns is a blessing as they're not being used elsewhere. Highly recommend two rows of forts in the crucial areas - I suspect the join between the Finns and AGN will be one - he might try at least to separate the Finns from the rest of your army that way.

Regarding the fortified zones you're building - be sure to disband each of them just before he comes into contact with them too. Finally, urban hexes and towns with population 2 or above become gold dust for sheltering from blizzard attrition. Obviously try and keep your best units in them, and/or rotate battered units to these hexes behind the lines.

Looking at your dniepre line, the hexes on HIS side of the river are actually better to defend in many cases, where they are woods or swamp, as the river itself will freeze and not offer any protection.

< Message edited by squatter -- 4/16/2011 9:01:58 PM >

(in reply to Senno)
Post #: 266
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 4/16/2011 9:03:42 PM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Turn 16:

AGS:

Sixth Army conducted some local attacks and began forming winter defenses.

First Panzer continues rolling down the Dnepr on the way to Dneprovstock.

AGS has been the last priority during '41 and it really shows. Still bogged down, basically. If I survive the winter, that priority will change in '42.

Just 1 turn left until mud, and then Oleg's "supermen" take the field....






Attachment (1)

(in reply to Senno)
Post #: 267
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 4/16/2011 9:25:11 PM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline 		Turn 16:

AGS:

I've got to keep some pressure on down in AGS so Oleg doesn't strip even more reserves and put them on the Moscow approaches. So, First Panzer and Seventeenth Army combine to break through and head south towards Apostolovo. Depending on how he reacts, next turn I may wheel west and head towards Nikolaev. Most likely he will glom onto the exposed motorized division and retreat east by south east off the lower Bug.

It certainly feels like to little, to late down in AGS, but I've got to keep trying until winter...

The Romanians conducted a number of local attacks and the Romanian armored exploited a small opening, but lack the MP's to do much at all.

My turn 1 failure to pocket anything continues to hurt down here in AGS...




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Senno -- 4/16/2011 9:27:23 PM >

(in reply to Senno)
Post #: 268
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 4/16/2011 10:26:19 PM   
Apollo11


Posts: 24082
Joined: 6/7/2001
From: Zagreb, Croatia
Status: offline 		Hi all,

quote:

ORIGINAL: Senno

Hmm, not quite flat-lined, it seems.

After reading about the collapse of BA's and Oleg's game, I decided to contact Oleg to see if he wanted to resurrect this game. He has agreed, so we will continue playing.


Good to see you back - we all need more data from players and more good AARs!


Leo "Apollo11"

_____________________________



Prior Preparation & Planning Prevents Pathetically Poor Performance!

A & B: WitW, WitE, WbtS, GGWaW, GGWaW2-AWD, HttR, CotA, BftB, CF
P: UV, WitP, WitP-AE

(in reply to Senno)
Post #: 269
RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reas... - 4/16/2011 11:49:22 PM   
Senno

 

Posts: 489
Joined: 12/27/2010
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: squatter

I'm sure you've thought of all of this anyway, but in my experience, giving him three clear hexes per turn of blizzard to advance into will take the sting off the worst of it (after December, blizzard effects ease off a little). I dug a prepared line around 12 hexes behind the initial front line to fall back to where possible. Get some divs broke down to regiments to help your Fort units doing that asap. Three hexes means his deliberate attacks are almost impossible. You'll have the patch before blizzard though, so shouldnt be as painful.

Good terrain helps, obviously. Remember rivers freeze and are useless for defence in blizzard. That means the south is the hardest to defend. You can afford to let him make large salients in swathes of the mid/mid south map so you dont have to try and build a full fort line - that's impossible anyway. Come the spring, you'll appreciate having salients to attack anyways.

Keep hitting him with cheap deliberate attacks all the way through the snow, if not one or two limited pocket offensives. Dont get caught with units the wrong side of a un-reduced pocket on the first turn of blizzard.

Re: the Finns - they are become your best troops alongside your mountain units in blizzard. There's no way on earth he'll take Leningrad, or anything else in their sector. You can go over to the offensive with the Finns if he leaves anything north of their line, believe me. Push towards whatever that city is called in their zone through the snow and blizzard. Anything he throws at the Finns is a blessing as they're not being used elsewhere. Highly recommend two rows of forts in the crucial areas - I suspect the join between the Finns and AGN will be one - he might try at least to separate the Finns from the rest of your army that way.

Regarding the fortified zones you're building - be sure to disband each of them just before he comes into contact with them too. Finally, urban hexes and towns with population 2 or above become gold dust for sheltering from blizzard attrition. Obviously try and keep your best units in them, and/or rotate battered units to these hexes behind the lines.

Looking at your dniepre line, the hexes on HIS side of the river are actually better to defend in many cases, where they are woods or swamp, as the river itself will freeze and not offer any protection.


Thanks for the advice, Squatter.

Reading about how Oleg lined up 7200 guns against BA is intimidating. At this point, I'm not sure if ignoring the terrain, and just having my lines be as straight as possible might be the the way to go. Giving Oleg even more hexsides to attack from in deliberate attacks is a scary thought.

The mobile defense seems a bit gamey also, but if I just sit there, he's gonna crush me along the whole line, for certain.

I will disband the forts as he gets close, thanks for reminding me of that.

The Panzers will be out of the line in population centers on reserve status.

The turn is back with Oleg now, he might not get it back til Wednesday. Giving me a large amount of time to worry about the upcoming mud and blizzard, haha....

Next turn starts the full switchover to defense for me I think. I'm very late with it anyway, been trying to grab Leningrad and Moscow. I'm just going to leave Moscow for '42, if I have an army left.


(in reply to squatter)
Post #: 270
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