RE: Das darf nicht var sein!

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/25/2011 5:29:47 PM

ny59giants

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AA Ranges

Allied:
90mm M1A1 AA........33,800
3in M1918 AA........29,800
80mm AA.............28,000
75mm AA.............28,000 (another model goes only to 20K)
3.7" Mk II AA.......24,000
40mm Bofor AA.......9,800
40mm M1 Bofor.......9,800
37mm M1 Colt AA.....8,600
2 pdr AA............8,000
20mm Mk 4 Oerlikon..6,200
0.5in M51 Quad AAMG.4,200
0.5in M2HB AAMG.....3,600
12.7mm AAMG.........3,600
Lewis AAMG..........2,100
Bren AAMG...........2,100
Vickers AAMG........2,100

Japan:
10.0cm T14 AA.......31,000
75mm T88 AA.........25,000
40mm T91 AA.........8,000
25mm T96 AA.........7,000
20mm T98 AA.........6,200
13.2mm T93 AAMG.....3,200
7.7mm T99 AAMG......2,100

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 541

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/25/2011 5:33:41 PM

JohnDillworth

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quote:

18th Division: Parked at Palembang (except the Recce unit, which is at Benkolen but prepping for Palembang).

Not saying your wrong, but I am sure you are now in the love with the idea of Fortress Palembang and are convinced it will never fall.

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Post #: 542

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/25/2011 5:37:31 PM

Canoerebel

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Actually, I'm not certain of much right now. Here's what I know:

1) Fortress Palembang will hold a long time.
2) Once it falls, the Allies will lose a ton of points for units.

By no means do I think it can't be conquered. In fact, at this point it certainly can be if the enemy brings enough soon enough. But there's still some question as to what the enemy will do. If the enemy tarries long enough, the Allies may be able to do a few things that could help Palembang's prospects. A decisive carrier strike vs. capital ships or enemy carriers will help (because it will further slow Steve down). A big invasion of Malaya/Burma would also help, but that's at least two months away, maybe more.

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Post #: 543

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/25/2011 7:07:22 PM

Nemo121

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Interesting explanation. It certainly explains the focus on Port Blair.

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Post #: 544

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/25/2011 7:20:15 PM

paullus99

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Actually, you should only have to hold long enough to develop a "critical mass" somewhere else to divert his attention. Of course, we can't know at this point where his true strategic focus lies (his "hail mary" play), but if you can raise enough hell on the western side of the map, it'll put a big wrench in any of his works on the eastern side.

Keep him dancing to your tune & it'll pay huge dividends.

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Post #: 545

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/25/2011 8:46:34 PM

Canoerebel

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2/24/42

Eastern DEI: A combat TF including two IJN BBs sighted at Salajar Island; Mini-KB sighted at Kendari; Japan has been reconning Dem Passar (east of Java) for a week or longer. All this paints a picture of possible IJN activity in this region soon - and this is exactly where I'd like to see a major IJN force (but not the KB!). Allied carriers are 15 hexes south of Tjilitjap and will move five hexes north tonight, awaiting developments and a chance to pounce.

Western DEI: An Allied CL/DD force is leaving Oosthaven tonight to take a stab at IJ shipping at Mersing. I don't see evidence that the enemy ships are protected, but they could be. Nevertheless, it's worth a shot. Big enemy air raid on Singapore dashed my hopes of rapid fort building.

China: I'm still waiting to see whether the IJN stack late at Changsha moves north to Chengte or the Sian front or, alternatively, circles around to strike Kweilin. As soon as the stack is another hex further away from Changsha, I'm going on the offensive in that area. Changsha has 5,000 AV. Japan has just 850 AV in the hex (13th Div. plus two mixed brigades). There are other weak IJ concentrations in the two hexes to the south.

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Post #: 546

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/25/2011 9:12:10 PM

paullus99

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How's your supply situation in Singapore? Any chance of a supply run or air supply?

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Post #: 547

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/26/2011 2:14:18 AM

Canoerebel

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I forgot to mention that Japan attacked again at Clark Field, once again at 1:2 odds. This time the Japanese suffered disproportionately heavy casualties. Steve is so anxious to take Luzon that he's skewering himself. If he'd let his troops rest for five to seven days and shock attack, he'd have it. But he's trying to get it immediately and it's not working for him. I bet he's chewing nails.

Right now, Singers has about 29k supply. I will begin air transfer pretty soon, I think. By the way, Japan has about 2,600 AV present. The Allies have 1,000 AV behind three forts. Prep for my guys should be very high; I don't know about his guys.

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Post #: 548

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/26/2011 6:17:57 AM

bradfordkay

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

princep, Steve hasn't voiced any concerns since very early in the game when a couple of unusual Allied strategies caught his eye (sending Luzon ships east towards Midway and a combat ship raid against his shipping at Babeldoab).� I believe he's a fan/student�of the actual war and tends to enjoy a game that is a decent reflection of�what happened in the Pacific.��I think he's just putting things together about Sumatra.� If he is indeed a traditionalist, he's not going to like the total non-traditional nature the game is taking.� That's my assessment, anyhow, and I could be wrong.� He may turn out to love the challenge, but I'm guessing he will be�chagrined and enter into a period of re-evalutation to determine if this is the kind of game he enjoys.� But he's also a reliable player with a stellar record who will want to see things through unless some mutual agreement is reach at some point.�

I think that you will see no complaints about a major stand at Palembang, because it is what could have been done with the UK 18th Division (probably should have been done) rather than send them to Singapore. Steve's approach (as is mine) is not that the game should follow the course of the war, but that the units should be used in a historically plausible manner. That's all.

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fair winds,
Brad

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Post #: 549

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/26/2011 1:59:21 PM

Canoerebel

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Here's a screen shot showing a developing situation in the DEI - the opportunity to pounce that the Allies have been hoping for may come true. It's not guaranteed - perhaps the enemy ships pull back; perhaps this is part of an ambush involving the KB; perhaps weather or luck intervene....but this is what the Allies were hoping to encounter when the decision was made to move the American carriers to the DEI.

Attachment (1)

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Post #: 550

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/26/2011 2:21:14 PM

JohnDillworth

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quote:

because it is what could have been done with the UK 18th Division (probably should have been done) rather than send them to Singapore

Keep in mind there was a lot of racial stereotyping going on (Japanese pilots have bad eyesight or can't see at night). I'm sure the British high command thought the 18th division was just insurance, there was no way these near-sighted ants were going to overrun Singapore. I haven't read the definitive history but I don't the the British contemplated, even for a second, that Singapore could ever possibly fall and maybe troops should not be wasted on a lost cause. The Allies were stunned at the abilities of the Empire and her men, planes and ships and it took the better part of a year to figure out what they were up against. Once they reconciled that they knew they were in for a real fight. I belive there once once an expression "Golden Gate in 48".

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Post #: 551

RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/26/2011 2:27:45 PM

Canoerebel

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Note that the correct heading of that IJ carrier TF is southwest, not west. The force could be raiding towards southwest Oz, could be leading an invasion force, or could indeed be heading into the waters south of Java. My carriers will take a ESE course and hope for a clash whether the enemy moves west or southwest.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/26/2011 3:35:26 PM

Canoerebel

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2/25/42

Eastern DEI: The orders have been issued. The Allied carriers will seek battle, hoping that this is not a clever ambush. I've set CAP to 50%, reaction to zero, home port Tjilitjap. I've loaded up the airfields in eastern Java with patrol aircraft and Dutch bombers set to naval search. I don't know where the enemy force is heading - my best guess is a patrol south of Java or covering an invasion of one of the island off eastern Java. If either of those is correct, a battle should take place. If the IJN force retires or moves on a more southerly course, probably no go. I have roughly 350 carrier aircraft; I count roughly 100 for the enemy (though that could be wildly inaccurate). I have my carriers in four TFs. A number of other TFs (combat, ASW) are also present.

Western DEI: A Dutch CL/DD force will visit Mersing tonight, hoping to tangle with under-protected merchant shipping, but Japanese combat ships could be present. As noted previously, I have a heck of alot of transports making their final runs in to Benkolen and Oosthaven, so the next five or six days will be busy.

India: A Marine raider battalion on transports should reached map's edge from Capetown and will arrive at Bombay in less than a week. The first of many American infantry units destined for India.

China: The IJA stack late at Changsha is still a hex to the north, suggesting that it's taking the slower yellow road to the east rather than the quick "good road" to the north. This, in turn, makes me wonder if the force won't circle back to strike at Kweilin or some other base in southern China.

NoPac: Quiet here, though the IJ airfield at Amchitka went to level one about a week ago. I have a BB-flagged TF in the Bering Sea waiting for a chance to hit an IJ supply convoy heading to Amchitka, but no targets thus far.

SoPac: Japanese planes frequently sighted over Suva. I know part or all of the KB has been in this area in recent weeks, though no fresh sightings (I'd rather them be here than joining in the fray in the DEI). I think Steve will be moving this way at some point, unless he scrubs the plans due to the developing maelstrom around Java and Sumatra.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/26/2011 3:52:15 PM

paullus99

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The next couple of turns should be very interesting - very impressed with your moves here, could certainly pay dividends

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/26/2011 8:20:55 PM

Cribtop

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I think this is a good move with well calculated risks likely to result in a devastating blow to the IJN. Remember - if he is about to invade eastern Java, you may be able to pursue and hammer the invasion fleet and covering forces after dispatching the CVLs. Good luck, but I doubt you'll need it as the conditions are favorable (favourable for the British ships).

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/26/2011 11:34:51 PM

Canoerebel

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2/26/42

This was as good a day as I've ever experienced early in the war. Everything came together. It was marvelous....

Western DEI: The day got off to a great start when a Dutch CL/DD force tangled with two juicy IJ transport TFs at Mersing. By my count, the Japanese suffered heavy damage or sinking to 5 SC, 2 PB, 21 xAK, 5 xAKL, 1 AK, and 4 xAP. It was a brutal whipping. My estimate is that at least ten of these ships went under including xAK Brisbane Maru and AK Kaga Maru. The Japanese ships, though at the front lines, were unescorted.

Eastern DEI: It turns out that the Japanese force sighted southeast of Java yesterday was an invasion bound for Dem Pasar. There was a Mini KB to the north, a combat TF at Dem Pasar, and the previously sighted Mini KB to the south. The latter included BBs Fuso and Ise and CVLs Zuiho and Ryujo. The Allied carrier fleet ended up seven hexes to the southwest and got off large strikes in both the morning and evening phases. Both CVLs suffered "massive fuel explosions" with both showing "heavy fires, heavy damage." Ryujo wasn't listed in some of the PM strikes, so she might have gone under immediately. Since the Japanese carriers didn't launch any strikes, and since the aircraft loss table for the day showed 51 Kates destroyed on the ground, I have high hopes that both went under. Also damaged were both BBs (each took many 1,000 lb. bombs and were on fire, with Fuso reported heavy fires, though my guess would be light/moderate damage), CA Myoko (reporting "heavy fires/heavy damage" and surely crippled), CL Nagara (on fire after taking a 1k bomb), and DD Oyashio (took a 1k bomb and sank immediately).

Immediate Impact: This Mini KB is crippled and will limp away. I am assuming the enemy will recall all his forces - including the invasion transports and other Mini KB, though there is a chance he will stay and try to fight, hoping that his LBA might get in some licks. An Allied combat TF flagged by CAs Indianapolis and Canberra (and including the intrepid Boise) will raid Dempasar. The Allied carriers will move north to a point four hexes south of Soerabaja, where I've tried to arrange some supplementary land-based CAP. I'd like to strike at anything that remains in the area and then vacate the premises (though some combat ships are likely to pay a visit to Soerabaja to refuel).

Long-Range Impact: Thus far, this is a stunning victory for the Allies. Throughout the DEI, a strong blow has been delivered, some of which will have an impact throughout the war. If Zuiho, Ryujo, and Myoko go under, Japan will suffer for the rest of the war. Japan will have to reevaluate any offensive plans in the region until it will be able to negate the threat of the Allied carriers. In the short term, I think the Allies need to strike while Japan is reeling - primarily by using surface combat assets to hit any exposed shipping. The Allies may also increase use of bombardment TFs and bombing raids. Japan will probably have to counter by calling in the KB.

KB: Currently, two IJ TFs reported south of Fiji with another to the west. No carriers reported, but they have to be there. No way Steve would send big assets into Indian country unprotected. Steve may elect to continue with whatever invasion he's undertaking (probably Fiji), so the Battle of Dempasar may have been just a little late to save Fiji, but I bet the KB is called to the DEI immediately thereafter.

China: The IJA stack late of Changsha is marching across a forested hexside to reach the hexes to the south of Changsha. This is an inefficient maneuver, as it would have been much easier to leave them at Changsha, move a unit already to the south into Changsha to open the hexside, and then easily march south. But...okay...they went the long and hard way. He's going to position this stack to attack Henyang or Siangtan, but I can shift troops around to meet that threat. I have about 8,800 AV present in the three hexes now; I think the enemy has perhaps 7,000 AV. Henyang and Changsha have five forts; Siangtan has three but will increase quicily to four once I increase it's garrison (which is currently 1600 AV).

Luzon: The enemy shock attacks at Clark Field, achieving 1:2 odds but inflicting greater casualties on the Allies. Japan is getting close, but I don't think they'll take the hex if Steve tries another attack in two days. I think the next attack will come off at no better than 1:1 odds since his troops were pretty badly disrupted. He needs to wait until early March, but he's acting desperate.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/26/2011 11:47:46 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/26/2011 11:50:46 PM

Canoerebel

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Giving this further thought, I'm definately going to try to use bombardment TFs. One of my first targets will be the Japanese army at Singapore....

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/27/2011 12:02:02 AM

SqzMyLemon

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Nice victory Canoerebel. I had been following Chez's AAR exclusively, but awhile ago I decided I was probably missing out on too many game improving discussions/strategies here so I'm back to following both. I've learned personally that using Mini-KB to spearhead DEI invasions without first attaining good airbases for an LBA umbrella and ascertaining the location of Allied CV's is high on the folly list. It wasn't wise to be dangling the Japanese CVL's like that and kudos for recognizing the chance for a decisive strike. I can't help but think with your Palembang defence and this recent bludgeoning that the fat lady might just be called upon to start warming up. A lot of game left, but these early Allied counterblows are laying the seeds for a future Japanese nightmare.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/27/2011 12:39:35 AM

JohnDillworth

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Hmmm, things look they might be coming to a close here. Time to find another AAR or 2. Any suggestions folks?

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/27/2011 12:44:06 AM

paullus99

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Congratulations - you're careful planning certainly made this possible. Time to maximize your window of opportunity here.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/27/2011 1:07:26 AM

JohnDillworth

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Well, if you are going to be following up anyway might as well chase whats left here all the way home. Got to be some ships full of troops nearby too. How about a thunder run around Java with a refuel and rearm at Soerabaja? You should run into some transports and you should be able to hold off the Netties.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/27/2011 1:32:35 AM

Nemo121

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Yes, good play.

Radi with DD TFs ( no CLs from now on ) --- he'll flood the area with Netties and DDs are better at dodging torps.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/27/2011 3:35:37 AM

Cribtop

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Banzai!

Err, I mean, Hooray!

Seriously, Dan. Well done. Good anticipation, planning and execution. A smashing blow to Chez' player morale and a decisive victory in material terms. Those are good CVLs he will never replace.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/27/2011 4:58:45 AM

crsutton

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It looks to me as if he is really stuck in an old historical mode of play style, and I think his adherence to this is crippling him. In AE you have to throw it all out the window and play to counter your opponent's style of play. I think most agree that splitting KB in a situation such as this (not knowing where the Allied carriers are) and vs an opponent who obviously does not split his carriers is suicidal. It as if he want to play in a historical style and is trying to "wish" you into accommodating him. This is AE and I think most will agree, you don't split your carriers. If kept together KB rules until mid 1943.

I don't mean to belittle your opponent, but this is like watching the Polish cavalry charge German tanks. Again and again.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/27/2011 7:38:40 AM

SqzMyLemon

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quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

In AE you have to throw it all out the window and play to counter your opponent's style of play.

I think this nails it. I certainly am in no position to criticize anybody's play, but the failure to recognize Canoerebel is playing much more aggressive this time around has been fatal. The constant failure to protect his forces adequately and adapt in light of this is what is so disconcerting. I've learned that AE is like poker, you are simply dealt the cards, it's up to you how you play them and more importantly how to read the other players.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/27/2011 10:24:24 AM

paullus99

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Splitting the KB (as your opponent has done on a few occasions now) may be historical, but it is also suicidal. The Japanese didn't start losing carriers in the war until they starting dividing their attention - trying to accomplish goals without concentrating their forces. In AE, any decent allied player knows that single or even small groups of allied carriers are just meat when confronted by the KB - so it behooves them to keep them concentrated & look for opportunities to nibble around the edges.

Here, Canoerebel was given ample opportunities to concentrate & get his carriers (all of them) into an area that his opponent was blatantly leaving vulnerable (showing the Mini-KB here while exposing the KB in far-off locations). There are some real opportunities to inflict a lot of shipping losses - and given the attention still being paid to both Singapore & Clark (which I assume are the targets of most of his LBA right now), Japanese airpower in the DEI has got to be seriously weakened.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/27/2011 10:36:50 AM

obvert

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Well done. The prediction, planning, and resulting execution here were amazing to witness. This slows things further, and Sumatra will just keep getting stronger as he readjusts forces.

Now that the mini-KB is basically done, have you considered landing your CV groups on Sumatra and Java, sticking the carriers in Capetown, and waiting as Sumatra grows and Burma is about to begin?

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/27/2011 11:00:06 AM

ny59giants

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Great job Dan!!!

My question for Chez is about his placement of his AIR HQs. Why wasn't there one placed at Makassar and Koepang to seal off the western SRA?? Two Air HQs leave Takao within the first few days of war to head for the eastern DEI to cover advancements with Nell/Betty. Bettys almost sunk CA Houston at Koepang as I was getting too far forward with my SC TF.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/27/2011 1:30:45 PM

JohnDillworth

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Dan,
How do your air groups look? Take many losses? At this point in the war your replacement rate is dreary to say the least. The Dautlesses are damn near irreplaceable. Did the TBD's do anything? anything at all? How about the Brits?

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 4/27/2011 1:41:40 PM

paullus99

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Sounds like he was out of range for the torpedo squadrons (not necessarily a bad thing, given their relative fragility) - but it would have been nice to get some torps into those BBs - though by the sounds of it, they could be out of action & in the yards for quite a while. This puts a serious dent in his surface forces in the DEI, so taking advantage of that fact is just going to continue to pay dividends.

This is also going to make for a very interesting near-term situation at Singapore - and definitely puts him well behind schedule for any moves against Sumatra as well.

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