RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza)

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RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/4/2011 4:04:44 AM

76mm

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One other thing I forgot to mention; in Turn 47, the clear turn, about 90% of my moves were interdicted, very annoying. At least the losses from interdiction have come WAY down, so that's good. I really want to crank up interdiction attacks on his forces. Does anyone have any tips, because they don't seem to be happening. For instance, with interdiction, since it is behind the lines, will any air unit attack any moving German unit in range, or how do the air armies decide what will attack what?

In Turn 48, mud turn, no interdiction.

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RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/4/2011 3:46:19 PM

76mm

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I just received Turn 49 (clear), wanted to post a few pre-turn screenies.

First, here is the area around Kharkov:

Several interesting things to note:
1) It looks like he only tried to widen his breach, not deepen it. In any event, any turn without a disaster is a good turn, so this is a good turn!
2) He seems to have tried a little push near Sumy, but it looks pretty half-hearted. I will have to look at the battle reports to see what was going on.
3) Look, look, interdiction attacks! Quite a few of them actually, this is exactly what I wanted. Granted, my planes got slaughtered in this attacks--often 3-4 German fighters would oppose up to thirty of my planes and shoot down several without loss, but hopefully they'll get better. I am going to boost the "interdiction escort" value from 50% to 100% for better protection.
4) Partisans seem fixed, a fair number of airdrops and rail demos.

In general, I am fairly satisfied with this turn at the beginning. I will post again at the end of this turn, as there is more organizational stuff that I want to do.

Also, here is the current status in the Crimea, he is gradually taking it:

< Message edited by 76mm -- 5/4/2011 3:47:44 PM >

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Post #: 122

RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/5/2011 5:27:26 AM

76mm

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OK, Turn 49 (clear) is over, a couple of mud turns coming up. I've been looking as his dipositions, doing lots of recon to try to figure out where he plans to focus his attack.

Looks like he is starving the North of resources, here is his line near Novgorod:

This is not the blizzard or a mud turn, so those 1-2 CV units are hurting.

Here is around Smolensk; his troops here are in decent shape, plus he has some troops behind the lines:

While I can't rule out an attack here, it would run right into my strongest defenses, around Moscow, so I could hopefully deal with that.

Here is the Kharkov area after my moves. You'll see that I pulled many units out of their fortified positions west of Belgorod, because of the threat of encirclement. Avoiding losing troops in encirclements is one of my priorities for 1942--I lost far too many like this in 1941, and now the flow of new units is down to a trickle, so I cannot afford to lose the 50 unit pockets this season. Note that I have had the Volkhov Front empty and in reserve until now, but this turn I gave it the 1st, 2nd, and 4th Shock Armies to create a "Shock Front". I put Zhukov in command of the Front and began moving the armies toward his Kharkov thrust:

I am hoping that in 1942 he is going to have to put most of his eggs in one basket, and I need the most powerful force I can get to counter it. Hence the Shock Front.

With the good weather, I could get another panzer count (panzer/motorized units):
Kursk: 4/2
Kharkov: 5/7
Dnepro: 1/2 (plus several stacked units I cannot ID)
Crimea: 2/1
So a total of 12 panzer divisions and 12 moto units have been ID'd, with the bulk of them near Kharkov. There seem to be several panzer divisions missing still, despite extensive recon.

Also, despite the panzer count, given their mobility I have come to realize that the real indicator for his intention is the strength of the infantry divisions in an area. This is for three reasons: 1) the panzer divisions can be moved over half the map in a single turn; 2) he needs the inf units to chew through the fortified carpet; and 3) he needs to prioritize inf units in his key sectors to get TOE up to 100%.

< Message edited by 76mm -- 5/5/2011 5:38:24 AM >

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Post #: 123

RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/6/2011 5:02:50 AM

76mm

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Turn 50 (mud) is over. I guess I haven't shown you all the "big picture" in a long time, if ever, here is the front as we head into the 1942 campaign:

Here is Crimea; as mentioned, I'm hoping to hold Kerch and Sevastopol, but we'll see...he's got an awful lot of units down here:

I spent a lot of time in the commanders' report this turn, just messing around. I actually hardly ever open it, but should probably do so more often. For instance, I was interested to see that I have many air groups with morale in the mid-nineties, who would have thought? For ground forces, the best was in the mid-seventies, and most of the top ten units were partisan units (along with Stavka and that Elite RRCB I mentioned earlier). Still a grand total of 1 Guards division...

I also spent a lot of time swapping out air units, moving out beat up units to the reserve and replacing them with fresh units. My recon units in particular are badly shot up, and I don't have enough replacements. Not a good situation heading into the campaign season!

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Post #: 124

RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/6/2011 6:21:28 AM

76mm

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Forgot to mention that I created my first two tank corps last turn (yeaaa!) in the Shock Front. I'm sure that they'll be able to go head to head with the panzers in no time at all!

Last turn I combined a few brigades into rifle divisions, but can't go crazy with this yet, I need the brigades for now, to dig if nothing else. I will be creating as many rifle corps as possible in the Shock Front over the next few turns.

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Post #: 125

RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/6/2011 11:51:26 AM

76mm

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I would like a little feedback on another issue: my partisans have been busy--really busy--blowing up track up near Lgrad. Seriously, I don't think there is much intact track left up there. Probably as a result, as you can see, some of the Finns are actually partially out of supply. I would love to attack up there, does anyone have any experience attacking them under similar circumstances? I've heard their morale is low while they're in Russia, and their CVs have certainly plumetted.

I would just try it out, but don't want to make any moves, even a single attack, up there unless I am fully prepared to exploit any success. This would require moving lots of troops up there, etc., which I am not prepared to do at this point.

Anybody have much experience with the Finns?

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Post #: 126

RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/6/2011 10:19:37 PM

kirkgregerson

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I think the Fins after some time (lowering of morale) can be a good target.

Pros:
- Fins morale when outside Finish zone tends to be very low by mid-late 42
- Fins have a limited manpower replacement rate, thus you can bleed them easier than other minors

Cons:
- Terrain is a beast in that northern zone, lots of light/heavy forest and swamps. So you could wind up bleeding yourself more than you like
- could the units used for this offensive be better off helping other zones of the front? If the axis is starting to slow in his 42 attacks, then maybe not.

Not sure what the correct answer is... really depends on some factors.

Good luck in game...

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Post #: 127

RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/6/2011 10:31:00 PM

Encircled

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If his Finnish unts are isolated, then attack if you have the troops to pull it off.

Your recon has already identified definate weakness in AGN, so take advantage!

Get him reacting to you for a change

If he's really weakened AGN, then you could really do him some damage

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Post #: 128

RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/6/2011 10:38:03 PM

TulliusDetritus

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LOL What a massive carpet you have there, 76mm

Doing that during my next '42 defensive campaign is indeed tempting. Though I want to experiment and try the successive lines thing which I mentioned before. Still... funny carpet!

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Post #: 129

RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/6/2011 11:51:16 PM

Pawlock

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Personally I think your carpet is too thick. If you have fortifications at the front I would at least double stack in places and make him have to concentrate more force and cause him to use deliberate attack instead of hasty attack.

To my mind whats the point of building decent forts if you gonna minimally man them.

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RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/7/2011 12:25:20 AM

Manstein63

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You should seriously consider attacking the Finns. there appear to be some regiments holding the line that if you can get enough cv's together to mount an attack you might get a breakthrough. Just remember to bring some cavalry divisions just behind you attacking units to exploit any openings. Transfer some airborne brigades to the area along with transport aircraft. because propper use of your airborne units could yield a nice little pocket. I am playing the barbarossa scenario as a server game & on the last turn before the mud starts using an airborne brigade & 2 cavalry divisions I have surrounded about 4 Finnish & 1 German units. & in the game that I am playing with Ketza the plan will be to bleed the Finns as much as possible. Just make sure that you recon the area but also very heavily recon the area between Poltava & Kharkov if he checks the show battle sites button it may convince him that there may be an iminent attack towards Kharkov.
Manstein63

< Message edited by Manstein63 -- 5/7/2011 12:34:05 AM >

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RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/7/2011 2:43:35 AM

Aditia

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quote:

ORIGINAL: 76mm

Forgot to mention that I created my first two tank corps last turn (yeaaa!) in the Shock Front. I'm sure that they'll be able to go head to head with the panzers in no time at all!

Last turn I combined a few brigades into rifle divisions, but can't go crazy with this yet, I need the brigades for now, to dig if nothing else. I will be creating as many rifle corps as possible in the Shock Front over the next few turns.

Just an FYI, in the 43-45 gc I am playing as axis, the soviet tank corps are the big unit that I fear the least. It's the infantry corps and mech corps that really scare the bejezus out of my divisions

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RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/7/2011 5:50:05 AM

76mm

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Just drafted a long post and lost it....aaarrrgh! Turn 51 is about over, the next turn is clear, so the 1942 campaign should kick-off next turn, so should be interesting, although I am more than a bit nervous. I didn't do much this turn, so no screen shots, but a couple of admin moves are described below.

I count seven panzer divisions and five moto divisions near Kharkov, so expect that that will be his main focus, although there are also at least two panzer divisions each near Kursk, Dnepro, and in the Crimea. And several are missing altogether...

Regarding the Finns: they are in my crosshairs, but IMO it would be foolish to be moving troops toward them at the moment, just before he kicks off his campaign. Priority #1 is stopping whatever he is trying to do this season, Priority #2 is choosing the best opportunity for a counter-attack once (if) he is contained. If this sounds reactive, well, it is, but I think that any other strategy is simply too risky.

I hear what all of you are saying about the carpet, and am not sure about this myself, but so far I am not convinced that anything else is better. IMO putting triple stacks on the front line or forming successive lines simply means that you will have more troops pocketed, but I guess we'll see. Pawlock, that is basically what I tried before, but he just killed everything I have. In the current set-up, I figure that at least some of the carpet will retreat to the hex behind rather than routing, so double stacks will appear in random places. I've got some things going on which you probably can't appreciate very well, but things should become much clearer very soon!

On the admin front, I shuffled some units around, and received the Voronezh Front. I will use this front to create a Reserve Front, with one shock army, one other good army, and one junk army. It will serve the same purpose as the Shock Front (march to the sound of his guns), but is weaker. I won't finish forming the Reserve Front for a few turns, because I need lots of AP to transfer these armies from other fronts. I also formed several rifle corp in the Shock Front (thanks for the comment on the tank corps, will try to focus on rifle corps).

Finally, I cranked up my Interdiction setting to 300%; I think that during these initial turns of this campaign, it will be helpful, perhaps critical, to put some sticks in his spokes by making it more difficult to put the precise units in the precise locations that he wants. At least that is the plan...

OK, next turn should see some fireworks, so please buckle up for the 1942 campaign season!

< Message edited by 76mm -- 5/7/2011 5:57:06 AM >

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RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/7/2011 6:54:47 AM

kirkgregerson

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It very much looks like he'll attempt to break through the Kharkov section and try and race pz/mot formations to the sea and cut off as many units as he can. You can't let him do that and retreat more in south if needed. Keep moving factories if you need to.

Remember you can't stand up to him in 42, not the way 41 went. I to think you'd be better off using a check board and sacrificing some units rather than large pockets. But I'm no expert on the Soviets myself.

I'm not 100% sure of this attack in south, but I'm 100% sure he needs to continue to get mass encirclements to keep your troop level and equipment low.

< Message edited by kirkgregerson -- 5/7/2011 6:58:01 AM >

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Post #: 134

RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/7/2011 7:01:24 AM

76mm

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Very possible he will turn south from Kharkov, but I really have a hard time predicting what he will do, so I've kind of stopped trying, just go with the flow. I actually have quite a few reserve Stavka armies scattered around behind the lines, and need to rush them toward the critical sector once it has been determined, but the fact that several panzer divisions seem to be missing makes me nervous.

I totally agree about the encirclements. Avoiding them will be one of my top priorities this season. I am up to almost 6.9 million men, and adding >100k per turn at this point.

The main reason I think the carpet will be a bit better is that it is not really intended to stop him, just to slow him down and reduce the chance of significant encirclments.

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RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/7/2011 8:19:53 AM

Manstein63

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I have a question for you. Do you have you a reason for leaving Kursk undefended? & it also appears that you have some HQ's in a hex on their own & if you are keeping your airbases close to the front it also might be an idea to protect them. Admittedly his forces are out of position but they can switch their axis of advance very quickly.

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Post #: 136

RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/7/2011 1:24:03 PM

76mm

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Dear Manstein, I had not quite finished my turn when I took the screenie and was horrified to find Kursk undefended as well; I have moved some troops into it, and have also shuffled some other troops around a bit. I may do a few more things before ending the turn, and will post screenies if I do.

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RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/7/2011 1:42:34 PM

76mm

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OK, I've finally finished this turn, need to send it back. One thing I did, partly in response to some comments on this thread, and partly just to keep Ketza a tiny bit off balance, was to withdraw a hex along most of the Kharkov front:

Why? I'm hoping it will cost him more in incremental MPs if he has to move his troops into my ZoC before attacking. His troops are presumably fully rested at this point, so I don't think "touching" his units makes much of a difference at this point, although I think it will assume more importance as his troops get worn down a bit.

Anyway, wish me luck!

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RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/7/2011 2:14:12 PM

PeeDeeAitch

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The good news for you - he is dividing (at least somewhat) his Panzer Armies. The 2nd year goal for the German is a big panzer fist. It means less attacks, but that how one gets through the defenses. Other good news, in a lot of areas you have fort2s/3s in several rows. The Soviets will not rout as easily and instead will retreat into fortified positions, making each line stronger (and why the Germans need several Armies to blast through).

The bad news - those CVs look a lot weaker than the ones I saw from Flam, and that was with more casualties. The Kharkov region has a LOT of 1's (even less than 1, where you see stacks with 1 CV still showing). He will likely see wrong CVs, but that is a troubling sign. I would expect a lot more 2s and 3s from you by now.

Dunno, if he manages to concentrate armor, he might do some damage.

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RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/7/2011 3:06:13 PM

Klydon

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I think you have to look at 1942 from a couple different points of view.

First, I think you are learning the Germans still hold the initiative at the start of the summer campaign in 1942 in this game. The other thing at this point is force preservation in terms of units for you. The only way he defeats you is to encircle and remove a large chunk of your army from the game to the point that you can't replace the counters. That means you do have ground you can afford to give, so make sure you do it.

As you noted, the clock is ticking with your army up to almost 6 million. Your industry is chugging out more and more tanks and artillery. You still need to play for time and also your unit TOE upgrades so that your mech and tank corps become more and more effective along with tank battalions becoming tank regiments for support units.

I think CP management for the Russians in 1942 is absolutely crucial. You will need to build new units and in my thinking, it is better to do it assembly line style. You are better off doing say 4 units a turn every turn over a period of time rather than every once in awhile doing a shot of 10 here and there. I don't know about doing it early since units are still expensive (although I would do rifle brigades if they are 5 points right now and then switch to divisions when they become 10 points). Obviously producing corps will be on your priority list. Early tank corps can potentially bail you out because they have enough movement to slip through a Axis encirclement to resupply a potential pocket, but other than that I think you should be very careful with them.

Lastly, the Germans are typically not strong enough to take the offensive across the entire front. That means that while you are getting your butt kicked someplace, the opportunity to kick his butt should present itself someplace else. It won't take a lot from you to do it: just a few infantry corps and perhaps a cav corp or two. Roll up to the line in a quiet sector and light him up. Putting pressure where he is trying to hold static will eventually cause him to divert troops and react to something you are doing instead of the other way around. The more drain you can put on his infantry, the quicker the game will turn your way. The state of the German army really goes by what shape their infantry is in.

Sorry for the wall of text and I look forward to this AAR in 1942.

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RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/7/2011 4:24:02 PM

76mm

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Thanks for the interesting points. I have not been creating many new units lately, for two reasons--I have had plenty of other uses for my AP (can't even tell you what, but they are down to almost zero every turn), and I am not sure of the wisdom of creating new units when many of my old ones are still at 1 CV.

I am not sure why the CVs are so low...my manpower pool is low, only about 50k (and by the way, my OOB strength is almost 6.9 million, not 6 million). I guess I should look at their manpower and see if that is the reason, and if not, I can go ahead and create some new units? Anybody have any theories about the low CVs and how to fix them?

I guess I'm really trying to figure things out as I go here, I've only played one other GC until this far, and in that one (vs AI) I was halfway to Berlin by now.

Also, someone mentioned evacuating industry. I have been evacuating steadily every turn since last summer, and at this point there is not much left to evacuate. Initially I left everything in Moscow but after he knocked me back near Kharkov I decided that wasn't necessarily safe either, so resumed evacs. I have left some key factories in Moscow and Stalingrad, just because I don't want their production interrupted, but think that I will have enough notice to pull them out (at least two turns).

The fact that I will have fewer evacs means that I'll be able to do some MASSSIVE rail transfers of armies in 1942, if necessary. One of the last things I did last turn was pull several of my reserve armies from entrenching duty and put them on standby on rails, so they'll be able to move to threatened sectors immediately.

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RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/7/2011 6:38:29 PM

Sabre21

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The downside to building more units when you already have so many is that it spreads your manpower out. With so many units on the map, it is no wonder many of them only have a cv of 1.

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RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/8/2011 8:03:50 AM

76mm

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Turn 52 (clear) is almost over. Whenever I get a turn from Ketza, the first thing I do is take a quick look at the "battle reports mode" (or whatever it is called) to see where the action has been. Here is what I saw this turn:

Not a disaster, but not great, either. Too many units pocked, I can't afford that every turn, that's for sure. Not the almost complete lack of Sov interdiction attacks. That's rather frustrating, what is going on?

The next thing I usually do is do some recon, to see what he is up to. I don't see anything north of Moscow at all, but I guess forces could be hidden in the woods, it is not like my recon is very effective. Around Smolensk, as previously, some threat, but not much as far as I can tell:

Bottom line: I'll be pulling troops from the north to reinforce Kharkov.

I also reconned around Kharkov, of course, here is what I found:

As far as I can tell, the panzer count for this turn is approxmately:
KURSK: I'm guessing five panzer divisions in this area, plus a handful of moto units.

KHARKOV: Positive ID on 9 panzer divisions and 8 moto units.

CRIMEA: Two panzers and one moto.

I think this accounts for most of his strength, so I'm going to have to commit my reserves at this point (although the panzers near Kursk are not yet committed and could be shifted pretty easily).

More to follow shortly.

< Message edited by 76mm -- 5/8/2011 8:06:47 AM >

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Post #: 143

RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/8/2011 8:13:32 AM

76mm

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The bottom line is that he continued to smash my carpet but thus far has not broken through. He pocketed a lot more units than I would have liked this turn, so I need to think about how to fix that. Anyway, here is the situation in the Kharkov area after moving some reserves:

You'll see that I'm still in the process of maneuvering the Shock and Reserve Fronts into position, along with the 30th Army. Other reserves are in motion in various places, while others remain in place for now.

I should point out that one of the reasons the CVs were so low last turn was that it was a mud turn; the CVs here are the higher, normal value but still on the low side IMO.

I also want to show you what is going on in the south:

I don't want to leave my lines too far in front of the bulge forming near Kharkov, so have pulled back a bit and will probably continue to do so.

The good news in all of this is that the Kharkov area is pretty much where I would have wanted him to attack, because I can withdraw for a long way withing losing anything of great importance. The main thing is to avoid encirclements in the meantime, and to try to gradually wear down his troops.

Next turn is mud, so I should have a chance to finish positioning some of the troops around Kharkov.

< Message edited by 76mm -- 5/8/2011 8:24:56 AM >

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Post #: 144

RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/8/2011 5:06:20 PM

Klydon

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If your ToE's for units in the line (those that have not been fighting) look fairly good in terms of rifle squads etc, then I think its safe to get the unit assembly line going.

Looks like you had 28 units get surrounded. Even if they were all brigades (it looks like about half and half), it will cost 140 CP's to replace them and more importantly, probably 4 turns before the new units are worth a lick.

As far as north of Moscow, I would leave the Finns alone for now and start advancing every where else and find his troops the old fashion way. If he has all his panzers in the south, then he has to be weak someplace. You need to put some pressure on him and make him sweat and divert troops. You can't stand head to head where he decides to attack anyway, so you may as well attack where he isn't.

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RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/8/2011 5:57:02 PM

Arstavidios

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Hi,
I read you want to combine brigades into divisions.
Isn'it better to keep them to create corps with two divisions and one brigade. This way you may save up on divisions.

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RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/8/2011 8:49:40 PM

76mm

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Arstavidios

Hi,
I read you want to combine brigades into divisions.
Isn'it better to keep them to create corps with two divisions and one brigade. This way you may save up on divisions.

What I meant was converting brigades into something else...right now I'll probably keep most of them around, will gradually convert into divisions/corps.

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Post #: 147

RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/8/2011 8:52:21 PM

76mm

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Klydon
Looks like you had 28 units get surrounded. Even if they were all brigades (it looks like about half and half), it will cost 140 CP's to replace them and more importantly, probably 4 turns before the new units are worth a lick.

As far as north of Moscow, I would leave the Finns alone for now and start advancing every where else and find his troops the old fashion way. If he has all his panzers in the south, then he has to be weak someplace. You need to put some pressure on him and make him sweat and divert troops. You can't stand head to head where he decides to attack anyway, so you may as well attack where he isn't.

OK, OK, don't remind me that an entire army has been surrounded! It could have been worse!

Seriously, next turn I'll start thinking about how to make this more difficult, but so far I'm really drawing a blank...I can't be strong everywhere, and generally he is good about hitting where I am weak and pocketing the strong units.

Will also look at attacks once this next mud turn is over, there are still a couple panzer divisions missing, and the ones near Kursk are uncommitted, so I want to wait a bit longer to see what is going on...

< Message edited by 76mm -- 5/8/2011 8:54:04 PM >

(in reply to Klydon)

Post #: 148

RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/9/2011 10:57:49 AM

76mm

Posts: 4688
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Just finished Turn 53 (mud); it should be clear from here on out, so things will pick up.

Because it was a mud turn, I didn't see anything from Ketza on the battle results screen. But once again my partisans have been busy...

Like I said, they've been tearing up the track up north. Just wish they'd do more down south...

First thing I do now after checking the battle report is fix up all of my air units. I go into the commanders report, sort all planes by readiness, send any units with less than 10 planes to the reserve, and replace them. Took me a long time this turn...

I noticed that I'm short on trucks, I'm at 81 (87). I was at parity for a long time, not sure why I'm short now.

I created two rifle corps in the Crimea to defend Kerch, and one more in the Shock Front.

Anyway, here is a macro view of the southern half of the front as we start the 1942 campaign in earnest. It looks like the same old carpet, but its not...I took some zoomed in screenshots showing fort levels and CVs and might post them ater he finishes his turn to see how the new set up fared against his attacks.

I pulled back a hex in some spots in the far south, as previously mentioned I don't want that sticking out too far as he advances near Kharkov.

I think Turn 53 is kind of a milestone turn, so I thought I'd post some of the boring stats that I usually don't bother with. Here are losses:

Note that pre-blizzard, my losses were about 3.9 mln, so I've somehow lost quite a few more over the winter.

Here are my losses in units. This is actually the first time I've seen these numbers, until now I was afraid to look at how many divisions I'd lost:

It's not pretty, but so far I'm still alive.

Finally, here is production. Nothing exciting, but...

< Message edited by 76mm -- 5/9/2011 11:02:15 AM >

(in reply to 76mm)

Post #: 149

RE: GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (No Ketza) - 5/14/2011 1:00:26 PM

76mm

Posts: 4688
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Turn 54 complete. Once again, I had a nasty shock, Ketz was able to (easily) punch through several fortified hexes and take Stalino. As a result, I had to retreat from lots of territory SW and NW of Stalino, so at least towards Rostov my troops are not entrenched any more. But I'm not sure that it really matters. Anyway, here is the situation near Stalino AFTER my move:

More comments on this later, but for now, another worrying development; the panzer army (I think) that was near Kursk has been moved up to the Smolensk area:

This is not good news, because I've moved a lot of units from the Moscow area down south to counter his moves there. It is even worse news when you realize how easily he slices through my entrenched lines. This area could get ugly very fast.

Nothing exciting, but here is the situation in the Crimea; he seems to have pulled the two panzer divs that were down there and sent them somewhere else, so I'm not sure if much else will happen down here for awhile:

I guess I'll discuss the strategic situation a bit later, but first I thought I'd present some analysis that I did of the combat in this turn. In general, the pattern of his CVs increasing by a lot, and mine falling by a lot, continued, and I really want to find out why. Otherwise, attempting any kind of defense seems rather futile, and I'd be better off checkerboarding back to the Urals.

Anyway, here is a table showing some data from the battles in his main thrust, towards Stalino:

Several general comments here:
1) As you can see,on average, his CVs increased by 59%, while mine decreased by 43%. While this is better than last turn, it still means that a battle which started at 1:1 would end up at 2.8:1, which is not good. It also means that his attacks, which on average had initial odds of 1.6:1, on average achieved 7.9:1 odds. Finally, it means (according to my math) that for one of my stacks to hold (ie, achieve 1.9:1 odds) against a 22 CV German attack (not very strong, but at least an effort), I would need 33 CV in my stack. That is just not achievable except in isolated cases, and currently impossible if not strongly entrenched. Frankly, these results are all rather depressing, but I was hoping that I could at least figure out what was going on.

The first thing I looked at was airpower. When looking at the effect of air power, I decided to look at what happens when a side achieves "air superiority" in a battle, which I defined (on a completely arbitrary basis) as having at least 100 planes more than the other side. In the table, I shaded the battles with German air sup in gray, Sov air sup in purple. The results were interesting: In battles where the Germans had air sup, my CVs were decreased by 72% (instead of the 43% average), but if the Germans did not have air sup, my CVs decreased by only 25%. Meanwhile, in the battles (beware, only two samples) where I had air sup, my CVs INCREASED by 48% on average, vs a 59% decrease if I did not have air sup. These results were interesting, but of dubious relevance given the small sample size, and indeed, analysis of the other battles on this turn did not necessarily show the same pattern.

More analysis in subsequent post; if this stuff is boring I would skip any more posts until you see a screen shot...

(in reply to 76mm)

Post #: 150

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