Canoerebel
Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002 From: Northwestern Georgia, USA Status: offline
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3/18/42 Eastern DEI: Japanese TFs sighted between Makassar and Balikpan, with SigInt reported one unit on a maru bound for the latter. The base has no defenses, so it will fall in two days. The encouraging thing is that Steve continues a very methodical and safe course of action while the clock on his invasion bonus is about to strike midnight. Western DEI: Still lots of IJ shipping from Mersing over to Singkawang/Kuching, but my fears that Steve might be planning to leap forward towards Sumatra in force have diminished considerably. Allied AV at Singapore is up to 876 (nearly 88% of what it was prior to the second Japanese shock attack several weeks ago). Steve is bringing heavy reinforcements to Singers, so I expect the base to fall in about a month. That's important, because there's an outside chance the Allies will have enough political points to orchestrate an invasion of western Sumatra before Singers falls. I think the bases taken by enemy paratroops are lightly held and poorly supplied. Retaking them would be a blow to enemy morale, would require a new offensive undertaking by Japan, and would restore Allied patrols that would give ample early warning of a move into the Bay of Bengal. In 12 days, the Allies will have enough PP to buy an Indian division at Bombay that has been prepping for Sabang for weeks. I could also throw in a US Army RCT and a Raider battalion. This operation would occur soon after the Allies invasion of the Kuriles, so it would keep Steve reeling. Fortress Sumatra: When Japan is ready to move on eastern Sumatra, I would prefer that Steve invade at Oosthaven, Benkolen, or Padang rather than at Palembang. The Allied navy can oppose landings at the latter three, but not effectively at the former (both because BBs can't go up the river and because by that point sailing to Palembang will be most hazardous). Oosthaven is the most likely choice and will have the most coastal defense guns, with Benkolen second. I'll also keep some units in strategic mode so that I can shift strength from other bases to the likely target base as things develop. The Alles will use combined arms to hit the enemy at the invasion site (land, air, sea). If the enemy gets ashore strongly enough to take the invasion hex, the Allies will then begin configuring a fighting withdrawal of all units in eastern Sumatra towards Palembang. That base currently has level four forts, 125k supply, and is in marshy (3x defensive bonus) terrain. I would expect to have at least 2,500 AV there by the time the final fight comes, if ever. I think it will take Japan many months to wrap up a campaign for eastern Sumatra. During that long interval, the Allies should be able to go on the offensive in multiple theaters, beginning with NoPac. India: 182nd RCT just arrived at Bombay. If the Allies strip Bombay of the three units referenced in the preceeding paragraph, the AV at Bombay will still be around 900 (because by then a new Indian division will have arrived on the map). I want enough there to provide a semblance of security until I'm 100% positive that Steve won't throw a hail mary at India once he takes Singapore. Prince of Wales will be ready to sail at Colombo in three days. China: Japan hasn't moved yet. 1700 Chinese AV will arrive in the Changsha-to-Kweilin sector in a few weeks - these are reinforcements stripped from Sian months ago. Half of this force will be used as a mobile reserve for the Chengte-to-Changsha-to-Hengyang sector, the other half for the Kweilin-to-Liuchow sector. NoPac: Forces still converging. The laggards are a TF included BBs Maryland and Idaho that are well northeast of Pearl Harbor. I think D-Day at Paramushiro will occur in 10 to 14 days.
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