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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/26/2011 11:05:09 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		A great discussion, one tiny thing I would like to interject. It was only an example Nemo gave, but I would like to point out that things like starting a thread and bemoaning how ahistorical something is could be toxic - if a developer ran with it and made changes! I suggest folks refrain from that particular sort of tactic.

And if you guys ever tire of hyperbolas then give parabolas a shot.

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 841
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/26/2011 11:20:00 PM   
desicat

 

Posts: 542
Joined: 5/25/2008
Status: offline 		The retaking of the Kuriles would only be strategically irrelevant if Chez retook them at the cost of delaying/weakening the DEI campaign.  As CR mentions the failure to retake them would be disastrous for the Japanese HI due to allied heavy bombers coming online in the following spring.  Chez may allocate his available forces to try and do both, possibly using his own subterfuge to make CR think the KB is headed or present up north while really hunting allied carriers or other warships in the DEI in hopes of shifting momentum in his favor.

I don't think this will happen, but for Japan to wave off the loss of the Kuriles in 1942 would be pure folly.  CR has already demonstrated his ability to crush Japanese industry from the Kuriles so their loss would be a mortal blow, not a ruse or a false threat.  In Chez's current position unless he unhinges both threats in a timely basis he is lost, and the current pace of events may have doomed him regardless. 

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 842
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/26/2011 11:35:28 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		There's a middle course between complaining about something which isn't real and posting a query about the survivability of patrol planes. I wouldn't advocate willfully misrepresenting the in-game situation.... but asking if Mavis were really that impervious when sitting on the water is, IMO, valid.... especially since they DO seem rather impervious compared to what one would expect. A simple strafing run should have a fairly high chance of knocking them out if they are there, from what I can see.

But your basic point is correct. You shouldn't misrepresent the game. Questioning something? Sure.


Desicat,
So, at the crucial point of decision of the logistics of the game your view is Chez placing his primary means of strategic decision in a theatre in which he doesn't have to achieve a favourable resolution for at least another 6 or 7 months is warranted. Interesting.

I think that it would be an irrelevant committment at this time since it would weaken the most strategically vital thrust. Without Palembang and in the face of a major Allied counter-thrust through the DEI/Borneo region the game will reach decision rapidly irrespective of any Allied four-engine bomber offensive from the Kuriles.

Of course each to their own. Personally I'd be delighted to see you wasting KB in a vain effort to keep my four-engined bombers away from your Northern industry while I worked on getting within range of Luzon with my counter-thrust with a view to working close enough, by land, to bring most of the southern and central mainland into bomber range from bases which are infinitely more easily supplied and more difficult for Japan to close down than bases in the Kuriles. But, as I said, each to their own. I'm certain that with a different style you can make your approach work for you.

< Message edited by Nemo121 -- 5/26/2011 11:48:31 PM >

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 843
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/27/2011 12:00:46 AM   
desicat

 

Posts: 542
Joined: 5/25/2008
Status: offline 		Nemo, Nowhere did I say that I thought he should send the KB north - I agree it would be foolish. What I did say is that he needed to unhinge BOTH areas, and if he could fool CR to think that the KB was headed north then all the better for him.

You stated that sending the KB on a strategically irrelevant mission to retake the Kuriles was a losing proposition and I would agree, but only in the use of the KB for this task. Chez needs to take the Kuriles without the KB, which is obviously needed elsewhere. The Kuriles are far from irrelevant and their loss in 1942 is pure folly on the part of the Japanese.

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 844
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/27/2011 12:27:41 AM   
desicat

 

Posts: 542
Joined: 5/25/2008
Status: offline 		I would add that I am surprised that you would confuse the allocation rationale required of available tactical assets** in the course of concurrent Operational level campaigns in obviously decisive strategic theaters of action (i.e. the loss of either campaign is ultimately fatal to Japan) as either/or propositions. At this point the Japanese need to be able to master doing two or more things at once, something you normally advocate.

**Current Navy doctrine states that warships are technically Operational (and in the case of super carrier's and SSBN's Strategic) assets that can be used in tactical applications.

< Message edited by desicat -- 5/27/2011 12:39:13 AM >

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 845
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/27/2011 2:36:17 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Thanks for the interesting discussion yesterday, gents. Fascinating insight into how players think. Some lights came on for me.

Nemo's reasons for not taking Amchitka, but using it instead, are marvelous. But I won't do it for these reasons: (1) Nemo was kind enough to give sufficient detail so that I can learn from what he took the time to share, but for me to follow such a detailed recipe would almost be like stepping aside temporarily to allow another player to take over; (2) planning and implementing such a stratagem would take weeks if not months, mainly to have the force ready in CenPac or SoPac to take advantage of the deception - I don't have such a force and don't think I'll have the time to prepare it; (3) since I can't use Amchitka in such an elaborate way, there's no reason not to proceed with my little Amchitka plan.

Originally, I wanted to use Amchitka for a little maskirovka of my own. Steve had only seen Warspite and Idaho in the Kuriles. They are retiring to Dutch Island to replenish, and I then intended to use them to bombard Amchitka, suggesting to him that I had withdraw my battleships. In fact, though, Tennessee, Idaho and Maryland are in place now. But...enemy patrols caught wind of Idaho, so Steve will be on the alert for Allied battleships no matter what happens now.

I'm getting more signals that Steve is coming full bore for the Kuriles.

More shortly.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/27/2011 2:37:03 PM >

(in reply to desicat)
Post #: 846
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/27/2011 3:00:30 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		If he does, it is a strategic mistake of the first magnitude - your presence there is an annoyance & ultimately could prove to be a springboard for moves later in the game, but if he overreacts and sends the KB north (and additional troops) it'll give you perhaps one or two additional months to prepare your Sumatra defenses (and perhaps even switch over to the offensive at best or continue to prepare subsequent offensive operations behind your Sumatran cover at worst).

How soon before the Sabang operation hits the beach? If you can catch him in the "horns of a dilemma," he won't know which way to jump & you can get him pushing his forces back and forth, accomplishing nothing of substance.

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 847
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/27/2011 3:04:28 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		3/30/42

NoPac: The Allies continue to land support troops (base force, engineer, CD, artillery) at Onnekotan and Paramushiro. This phase should be finished in a day or two, permitting me to withdraw the majority of my transports before enemy cavalry can arrive on the scene if I guess correctly. Lots of enemy patrol activity today, plus a raid by 37 Nells against unprotected transports at Onnekotan that didn't score a single hit (an unexpected degree of futitlity from Japanese bombers). I'm going to pull out part of 41st Division. I want to leave enough strength at Paramushiro to prevent a little counterinvasion from succeeding. However, when Steve comes he will undoubtedly bring everything possible to overwhelm the Allied force, so having a full division there won't serve any real purpose. If I'm wrong, and Steve ends up concentrating on the DEI and leaving the Kuriles for later, I can bring in reinforcements later.

China: The Chinese may have a chance of taking Kukong from a weak Japanese garrison. The threat, more apparent than real, of a sizeable Chinese force on his weak flank will worry Steve and entice him to try to cut it off. But the Chinese will be moving in and moving out quickly, looking for opportunities elsewhere.

Singapore: For the first time in nearly a week, the Japanese didn't attack. Steve may try again tomorrow, but forts are already back up to two. Singers may be able to hold another attack, and possibly he'll need to bring 52nd Div. over from Mersing before he can take it.

Western Sumatra: D-Day tomorrow. The enemy hasn't detected the invasion fleet and it also looks like the two bases to the south have been vacated as Steve has been concentrating his units (three small infantry that he brought in by air) on the eastern most base (he hasn't been able to take it because the Allies air transported in part of an Indian brigade). In other words, western Sumatra is lightly defended, Steve has been a bit frustrated in his efforts to eradicate opposition, and his likely plans to quickly reinforce and build up his bases here after Singapore falls are about to get a rude shock. I really like this little operation.

Eastern Sumatra: The three American engineers came ashore at Oosthaven in good shape. If Steve does elect to focus on the Kuriles, the time bought for Sumatra will be put to good use given the recent arrival of so many American engineers.

Counteroffensive: How else can the Allies take advantage of bought time and diverted enemy combat ships if Steve turns on the Kuriles? One important aspect will be to reinforce Sumatra, bring in more supply, and work on forts and airfields. Can the Allies engage in another offensive somewhere that might add to Japan's woes? I'm looking at possibilities. Malaya is one, though it will be a month or more before the Allies have the PP to buy enough units to make that possible and effective. A move in the Gilberts is another, but there's the same PP situation. A third operation that can be done pretty soon would be an invasion of Denpasar using mainly the American units about to land at Sabang. Denpasar is important to Steve - it will permit him to invade eastern Java under LBA. It's also a bit far forward from the rest of his big bases. The Allies would be able to effectively cover the operation by LBA from Java and carriers a safe distance to the west. Retaking Denpassar would likely throw a monkey wrench into Japan's plans for Java, and in the event of truly epic delays by or problems for Japan, the Allies could begin looking further east towards the heart of the DEI.

Delicate Balance/High Stakes: Generally, the window of maximum opportunity for Japan is January through August 1942. Thereafter, the Allies have received enough reinforcements to begin eying Japan as equals. In this game, Japan is disrupted at the moment, so the the window has narrowed from eight months down to five months. If the Allies can somehow wrangle a firm hold on eastern Sumatra for four or five months, Japan shouldn't ever retake it. An important part of the "firm hold" equation is maintaining a strong carrier force. Note, however, that the Allies have gone very far out on a limb - a stout limb with exceiting possibilties, but a limb nonetheless. With 3,700 AV in Sumatra now, the Allies can't afford to lose the battle in Sumatra. So buying time, reinforcing, and winning this battle is more important than ever. High stakes!

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 848
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/28/2011 2:16:33 AM   
desicat

 

Posts: 542
Joined: 5/25/2008
Status: offline 		CR I wouldn't be too sure that Chez will bring the kitchen sink to the Kuriles in an attempt to retake the islands. He has to be well aware of the following:

- way off schedule in Malaya (Singapore)
- you have heavily garrisoned southern Sumatra and Palembang
- he has yet to gain air superiority in Sumatra or Singapore
- his probes into the SE Pacific are strategically irrelevant due to pressing interests in the DEI and Kuriles
- the loss of the mini KB has left him unable to react in overwhelming CV strength in two locations simultaneously
- he has intel that you have Capital ships operating in the Kuriles and the DEI

If he sends the KB to the Kuriles the delay in the DEI will result in certain defeat. The KB going north is a win for you, in a strategic sense what would it matter that the 41st was lost in this scenario?

If the KB stays in the DEI then he has to assemble an ad hoc group to retake the Kuriles. Why make it easier for him by withdrawing the 41st Inf Div? I think you can imagine a scenario where your land based air, old battleships, and island defenses can hold vs a stout but KB-less Japanese invasion force. If anything I would reinforce and continue probing from the Kuriles in hopes of forcing him to split the KB. As you previously stated if he doesn't retake the Kuriles before the winter effects kick in he probably never will, don't make it easier for him. If the 41st contributes to either holding the Kuriles of forcing Chez to split the KB then it is a prudent strategic use of expendable assets.

< Message edited by desicat -- 5/28/2011 2:49:28 AM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 849
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/28/2011 10:04:28 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The key to the Battle of the Kuriles is the KB, at least until Chez can build up airfields within striking range, which will take some time.

If he commits the KB and also brings what he'll conclude is necessary to recapture both islands, the Allies won't be able to hold.  (But that will be fine for the reasons you noted - it will give the Allies another month or so in the DEI).

If he doesn't commit the KB, the Allies should be fine in the Kuriles for a long time to come - with five BBs in theater, I can probably fend off or make very expensive any enemy counter-invasion efforts.  In fact, Steve probably won't chance it knowing I have those BBs present.

So, I don't need 41st Division any time soon.  The bases won't be attacked, or they will attacked in such overwhelming numbers that 41st won't stand a chance (and I can't reinforce in material terms until I have more political points).  So withdraw part of 41st Div. now...and then reinforce later if it turns out the KB remains in the DEI.

Nothing concrete yet, but little things plus my hunch suggests that Steve will come full bore for the Kuriles.  Psychologically, that's understandable.  I don't think he knows what to make of the Sumatra mess, but he knows it's going to be a big, bloody fight.  On the other hand, the Kuriles are manageable.  So, he persuades himself that he has to deal with that threat first.

More later, but D-Day for the Sabang invasion went very well.  Steve's comment in his email:  "Sheesh, another dilemma..."

(in reply to desicat)
Post #: 850
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/28/2011 10:56:37 AM   
njp72

 

Posts: 1372
Joined: 9/20/2008
Status: offline 		Howdy, one of those long term lurkers watching on with enthusiasm.

I am continually amazed at how many dimensions this game has. For what it is worth my 2 cents- I think the psychological element is now the critical aspect of this particualar game which Nemo often discusses at length. As a long term player of the Japanese and if I was your opponent, psychologically I would be irate/ frustrated that at such an early stage of the game that I appear to be losing the initative.

Concentration of effort has not been your opponent's strong point thus far, so it will be fascinating to see how frustration may impact on his decision making- Does he lash out heavily at one objective to prove a point (I think the most likely) or fall into the old trap of trying to go for both with insufficient resources?

Psychologically I think you have him rattled as indicated by his own email and I believe the Centre of Gravity at this particular point of time is not so much Kido Butai or its projection of power, but his own mental will to agressively utilise the massive amount of combat assets he still has at his disposal.

Another sharp reversal will completely unhinged him psychologically regardless of the overall material damage. Your carriers could probably achieve that at the right juncture.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 851
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/28/2011 11:05:07 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Thanks, njp. That's a good idea - a carrier raid if Brad commits the KB to NoPac.

Heck, for that matter, if Brad commits the KB to NoPac, the Allies probably need to go on a limited offensive in the DEI - Denpasar (as mentioned earlier) and Koepang would make reasonable targets due to their position at the far edge of the Japanese perimeter.

Political points are strangling me. I can handle Denpassar with troops already ready to go. For Koepang, I'd almost certainly have to buy troops. An invasion of Malaya is a possibility, though I'm still weighing that. And it would be effective now to inavade the Gilberts, but I definately can't spare the PP there. I think the Gilberts would take a lower priority than the DEI, but I need to mull that over for awhile.

I am about 99.99% sure that I can dismiss India as even a remotely possible target at this point. That means I have enough AV there at this point to handle her defense (roughly 2,500). That, in turn, means I can buy 27th USA Div. when it arrives in Capetown in a couple of days and use it in the DEI. Also, the Brit reinforcements due to arrive at Aden in coming weeks can be used similarly.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/28/2011 11:07:03 AM >

(in reply to njp72)
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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/28/2011 12:27:56 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		desicat,

Ah I misread. I had conflated discussion of the commission of KB to the Kuriles and your post in error. I think we are, generally, in agreement. Retaking the Kuriles in a phased manner while taking or rendering irrelevant Southern Sumatra would be a near-optimal strategy at this point. Why phased rather than concomitant? Well, simply I don't think Chez has the moxy to take Southern Sumatra at this stage even if he fully commits so I think he definitely doesn't have the moxy to take it if he tries to run concomitant operations.

With that said I don't think that even if he tried to phase things he'd succeed. He hasn't shown an ability to use his interior lines to advantage - interior lines combined with the long-range of their aerial forces is one of the most potent force multipliers the Japanese have allowing phased favourable concentration of forces at various portions of the front. Really they can just Bagration the Allies repeatedly.

Why not concurrency? I think that that would lead to inappropriate allocation of forces as I don't think Chez has sufficient recon to properly apportion his forces.... So, concurrency is great but without the ability to run those concurrent ops with slightly less force per op it can be disastrous. I think that for Chez it would be disastrous even though theoretically superior.


One caveat to concurrence is that while simultaneity is a force multiplier one way to really derange Boyd loops is to unleash a significant surprise in order to derange the loop a little but then drip-feed more surprised ( phased operations ) in over the next little while in order to disrupt the opposing commander's attempts to re-orient appropriately. In essence you derange and then challenge the efforts at re-orientation by continuing to temporally feed in dislocations over a short period of time.

Re: Navy doctrine: Aye, they're right too.


As to our later assessment re: Chez's options... Good assessment but I think the key at this stage is that Chez may no longer be sufficiently temporally oriented to the objective realities of the situation to make that sort of, correct, assessment. What he could/should do is clear. What HE can actually see as possible right now is less so, IMO.


Canoe,
Do you have any HR against marching a few thousand AV down from India into Burma?

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 853
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/28/2011 12:37:48 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		3/31/42

Sabang: The Allies land about 100 AV. The cursor shows two enemy units (2,000 men) present, but the landing didn't trigger an auto-bombardment counter-attack, so the two are probably a base force plus some infantry that Steve is transporting in by air. A two-BB bombardment TF will hit the base tonight. Tomorrow, the invasion force, which is continuing to come ashore and should thus be stronger, will deliberate attack. A refugee Sumatran unit entered the hex to the east and found it vacant, so it too should fall tomorrow.

Singapore: The Japanese only bombarded, so Singers holds into April. Allied AV has recovered to about 340 with two forts. B-17s from Palembang to target enemy ground troops here tomorrow.

Eastern Sumatra: Aussie heavy AA to land at Oosthaven tomorrow. Indian artillery unit comes ashore at Benkolen. Allies set to strip India of coastal defense guns as they are much more likely to be put to use in Sumatra. The first, recently moved from Surat, will board transports at Bombay and make for Oosthaven. The next one goes to Benkolen and should depart Bombay in three days.

China: After a probing bombardment tomorrow, we'll know whether the Chinese force is strong enough to take Kienko. The big IJA stack at Changsha (37 units) hasn't budged. The Chinese reinforcements that made the long, long, long journey from Sian are now arriving at various posts on the Changsha to Liuchow front.

Kuriles: Allied recon probed Shikuka. Two DDs are patrolling the waters - one in the Shikuka area, the other in the Pacific well south of Paramushiro. Allied sub encountered a CM and ACM in the Sea of Japan - seems possible that would be a defensive force heading into NoPac to mine ports that Steve deems vulnerable. Since Shikuka is lightly garrisoned (one unit), everything suggests that Steve is worried about the Allies coming further. That's good. Bettys and Nells sortied again at extreme range, once again missing. Unloading at Onne and Para continues. After one more day, the transports will depart even if not fully unloaded.

Pacific: Two unrestricted US RCTs arrive in the next week. This would help the Allies form a Gilberts invasion force if that move is given PP priority, though I think it still has to take second fiddle to the DEI.

DEI Counteroffensives: While still waiting to see if Steve throws the KB at the Kuriles, as hoped, the Allies are evaluating options for offensive action in the DEI. Denpasar is a likely target as is Koepang. 27th USA Div. arrives at Capetown in five days with AV of 297 (the unit begins the war with high disablement). I have 1,000 political points in hand and should have 1,250 in five days. The division should cost about that much. That's probably the highest priority PP need right now since that unit can be used in one of these invasion, in an invasion of Malaya, or to reinforce Sumatra.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/28/2011 12:44:53 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 854
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/28/2011 12:41:12 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Nemo, yes, we have to pay PP to move across national boundaries. :) Darn, or I'd have the entire 2,500 AV currently in India in Burma.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 855
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/28/2011 12:46:57 PM   
Smeulders

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Nemo, yes, we have to pay PP to move across national boundaries. :) Darn, or I'd have the entire 2,500 AV currently in India in Burma.


I'd have been interested to see this. Are there any AARs where someone has done an early Burma invasion while working with the supply movement restrictions ? 2500 AV might be very hard to keep supplied through the jungle now.

_____________________________

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Post #: 856
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/28/2011 1:13:33 PM   
ny59giants


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quote:

Singapore: The Japanese only bombarded, so Singers holds into April. Allied AV has recovered to about 340 with two forts. B-17s from Palembang to target enemy ground troops here tomorrow.


If your AV is down to just this amount, why not air transport in more troops?? Deny him this base would help any future plans to re-capture Malaya IMO.

(in reply to Smeulders)
Post #: 857
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/28/2011 1:38:00 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I would love to reinforce Singapore. Doing so might well just end the game.

Here's the problem. The garrison is obviously very weak and could fall on the next attack. Any troops going in will have no prep. And Steve has at least one more division already present at Mersing and undoubtedly on the way. So air transporting in AV isn't going to help. And bringing them in by ship will take too long - at least six to eight days and by then the campaign will be over. There's also the problem of massive enemy LBA concentrations at Mersing, Kuantan, Singkawang and vicinity. The troops I would be using to reinforce would be coming from Sumatra, so I'd be risking wasting critical troops on a mission that wouldn't succeed. Finally, when I was considering all this, the KB was believed to be in theater and likely to show up around Singers at any moment.

For all those reasons I decided about a week or ten days ago that reinforcing Singers was too risky. I would have done so had I known the garrison would hold out for at least two weeks and that would have been a fun move.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/28/2011 1:39:06 PM >

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Post #: 858
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/28/2011 5:54:09 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		Sorry Canoe. Chez has pulled off the Maskirovka operation to end all Maskirovka operations. The West Coast invasion force arrives next turn and you can't stop it now.



(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 859
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/28/2011 9:03:09 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		witpqs: That would be good theater if everything that had happened to date was by design.

I got a most puzzling email from Chez this afternoon. Read this:

"...The Kuriles are a entirely different matter. You caught me totally flat-footed there. With the majority of troops in the Home Islands being permanently restricted, I am finding it is not an easy task to move troops to where they are needed.

"I think what is needed is an algorythm similar to the one that triggers kamikazes. Only restrict it to any invasion between Okinawa and the Kuriles. It should trigger some changes in the restricted status of the troops. Or something along the lines of emergency reinforcements that arrive with an invasion of the west coast or Australia. As it is, it is impossible to reinforce the Kuriles without redirecting significant numbers of troops from the PI or Malayan operations."

Is it possible that Chez didn't see the massive number of Depot Division troops he received as a result of the Allied invasion of the Kuriles? Is it possible he isn't even aware that such an invasion is an auto trigger? His comments regarding Australia suggest that somehow he has missed out on his auto reinforcements. How can this be?

Secondly, the reinforcements are part of a restricted command, but it's up to a player to recognize that he'll need a reserve of PPs for emergencies such as this. Readers may recall that the Allies took into consideration that Japan had just bought 52nd Div. for transport to Malaya, so that PP's might be short.

This email could be an attempt at deception, but it seems more to me like an enemy HQ in utter disarray.

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 860
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/28/2011 9:52:15 PM   
Miller


Posts: 2226
Joined: 9/14/2004
From: Ashington, England.
Status: offline 		Hi Dan. In our game the only reason I was able to retake the Kuriles when you invaded was thanks to all those home defence units that appeared from thin air. But as has been already mentioned, that area is the least of his problems right now.

Since you have already destroyed the mini-KB, I think it may be possible to end the game if you can engineer a KB vs all your CVs clash (out of the range of his LBA of course). He is stuck with 18 plane Zero sqds on his CVs until June. So thats 6 x 18 = 108......and he has to escort his strikes so a good number of your strike planes would get through a 50% CAP.........something to bear in mind.

I dont think Chez is a bad player......however maybe he has not had the time in real life to give this game his full attention and it has cost him. He has missed things and now is paying the price. He might have gotten away with it against a Noob, but not an opponent of your calibre.

< Message edited by Miller -- 5/28/2011 9:57:37 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 861
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/28/2011 10:02:07 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		If you get inside someone's OODA cycle the fact that they then begin making inappropriate decisions doesn't show them as a "bad " player. It is just a sign that you've broken their OODA cycle.

With that said he was indecisive and let his forces fall into disorder from order and counter-order.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to Miller)
Post #: 862
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/28/2011 10:08:41 PM   
desicat

 

Posts: 542
Joined: 5/25/2008
Status: offline 		CR maybe the sporting thing to do would be for you to send him an email asking if your invasion auto triggered the HI units?

Maybe he missed them or maybe he has never encountered an auto trigger of forces....?

If he knows of the units and chooses not to use them or can't is a different scenario than not even being aware of their existence.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 863
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/28/2011 10:10:52 PM   
Miller


Posts: 2226
Joined: 9/14/2004
From: Ashington, England.
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: desicat

CR maybe the sporting thing to do would be for you to send him an email asking if your invasion auto triggered the HI units?

Maybe he missed them or maybe he has never encountered an auto trigger of forces....?

If he knows of the units and chooses not to use them or can't is a different scenario than not even being aware of their existence.


IIRC, at the end of the replay on the day of the invasion he would have seen multiple xxx Garrison Unit arrives at xxx messages, hard to miss those I would have thought.

(in reply to desicat)
Post #: 864
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 5/29/2011 1:15:30 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/1/42

Sabang: The American expeditionary force takes this base easily (Steve was using air transport to bring in reinforcements including part of 52nd Division). The Dutch take the vacant base to the east. But Japan shock attacks to take the base at the far east of the line (garrisoned by a hodge-podge of Indian and Sumatran troops that I thought could hold). The American tanks and one infantry regiment will roll east and badger the retreating Japanese in a visible way. But all four American units have switched prep to Denpasar. I'm not planning on them remaining at Sabang long. Bettys and Nells sortied against the Allied shipping at Sabang effectively, sinking two xAP and five xAK, with one more xAP likely to go under. All shipping will pull back until I can get some CAP in place. Extracting the troops may be a challenge. :)

Singapore: The Allies hold against a 2:1 attack that drops forts from 2 to 1. The forts saved the Allies, and the brief window in which the Allies landed 30k supplies a few weeks ago has repeatedly saved the Allies. Singers AV is down to 260, or 26% of what is was when this assault began. Japan should take the base next attack, though there's a small chance the IJ force took enough damage to need rest for one day...and in one day forts will go back to level 2.

Sumatra: Steve is chomping at the bit to get at Sumatra - especially to restore order in western Sumatra - as soon as Singers falls. Things are going to get busy around these parts.

China: The Chinese will take a crack at Kienko tomorrow. IJ stack at Changsha still in place.

NoPac: Bettys at long distance managed to lightly damage two xAK at Onne. Most Allied shipping departs both bases tonight, though I'm having trouble getting an xAP/xAK force that was reloading a part of 41st Div. to obey orders. It was unloading, I ordered it to reload, and it doesn't seem to like the change. This is a snafu that could cost the Allies some ships. Otherwise, things look good up here at the moment. Miller is right in his post up above. The triggering of Japanese reinforcements unleashes a long, obvious string of announcement in the combat replay. Steve had to notice that (and surely any player of his experience level knows such an invasion triggers these forces), so I'm not going to say anything yet. I think he's running a ruse to try to lure me into complacence.

Brief Hiatus: Canoerebel HQ will be off today and tomorrow as the family takes a brief backpacking trip in the mountains to tell stories around a campfire and visit our favorite swimming hole for the first time this summer (take that, Yankees!). Resume normal schedule Tuesday.

(in reply to Miller)
Post #: 865
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 1:05:34 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Singapore: Japan takes this critical base on a 2:1 attack.

Points: For the first time, Japan takes the lead, going from a virtual dead heat to a lead of 2k or 3k due to Singapore's value and the loss of Allied troops.

Sabang: Japananese air hit two more xAP and six or seven more xAK - I had given orders for the ships to retire, but I possibly forgot to click "cancel unloading" in my haste to finish the turn. The American tanks are rolling forward and should batter the retreating enemy stack the day after tomorrow.

Sumatra: With the fall of Singapore, I think Steve's first order of business will be to reclaim western Sumatra. The Allies will see what they can do to frustrate Japan as long as possible. There may occur opportunities to strike.

China: Two of the four Chinese units arrived at Kienko, but couldn't dislodge the hodgepodge of defenders. Two more units arrived today, so all four Chinese will give it a try tomorrow. If things don't look promising, they'll retire towards Henyang.

NoPac: Quiet up here. All Allied TFs have retired except two small supply and three DDs. Then stage two begins - see if Japan counterattacks quickly. If not, the Allies will reinforce with engineers and some support units. (If Japan elects to focus on the DEI, the Allies will strive to take advantage in the Kuriiles).

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 866
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 4:44:47 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		It occurs to me that the Sabang Op may encourage him to try the "long approach" to Palembang via Western Sumatra. What are your plans if that is the case? He has a long way to go but won't unload in the teeth of your CD guns.


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Post #: 867
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 8:54:53 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Here are Steve's Sumatra invasion options from most direct to most indirect.  This is so complicated it is a game entirely within itself:

Palembang:  An invasion of Palembang offers Steve's the safest seaborne approach because there is little likelihood of interception by Allied combat ships.  The approaches will be dominated by IJ LBA and ships.  But landing here means bottling up the IJA invasion force on the beach with the Allies able to freely bring in reinforcements.  Also, Steve will believe this hex is the most strongly guarded.  I rate the odds of an amphibious assault here very unlikely and very favorable to the Allies.

Oosthaven:  This may be the most attractive beach to the enemy - close proximity to Palembang means a straightforward land campaign once the invaison troops are ashore.  Also, Oosthaven is on the border of IJ controlled waters and will be close to IJ airfields once Japan takes Java.  Oosthaven, however, is the most heavily protected by Allied CD guns and is at least somewhat vulnerable to interdiction by Allied combat ships.  I rate the likelihood of invasion here as high.  The Allies have 1300 AV now, which will be augumented.  If Japan lands here, the Allies can easily reinforce Palembang from other bases.

Benkolen:  This is the least-heavily protected Allied base that offers quick access to Palembang; least-heavily protected because it offers Allied combat ships the best chance at intercepting an invasion force.  Landing here allows the Allies to quickly reinforce Palembang from the Oosthaven garrison.  I rate the likelihood of invasion here somewhat lower than Oosthaven, but higher than the next base.

Padang:  Lightly protected, but offere the Allies a better chance at attacking the invasion force.  An invasion here in strength means a long IJ campaign across yellow roads, which should mean supply problems.  I rate the chances of an invasion here as fairly low.

North Coast:  Japan can land here uncontested, but then faces an even longer campaign across Sumatra's yellow road system.  This would be a most inefficient way for Japan to attack - long, slow, risking taking many months...but it would eliminate the possibility of a sea battle.  I rate the chances of such an attack as fairly high.

What I think will happen:  Steve will mount a small "feeler" campaign from Sumatra's north coast; try to gain control of the air; take Java, and then invade either Oosthaven or Benkolen.  The Allies will seek opportunities to strike around Sumatra, and will engage in new offensives in distant locales to try keep Japan off balance.



(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 868
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 4:21:45 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Smeulders


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Nemo, yes, we have to pay PP to move across national boundaries. :) Darn, or I'd have the entire 2,500 AV currently in India in Burma.


I'd have been interested to see this. Are there any AARs where someone has done an early Burma invasion while working with the supply movement restrictions ? 2500 AV might be very hard to keep supplied through the jungle now.


Not to difficult as long as it is not the moonsoon and you have built up all Indian foward airbases, including Akyab and that other base just over the border. If you are moving into Burma with these bases at only level 2 or 3 then you might be eating your own shoe leather.

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Post #: 869
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 7:05:52 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline
quote:

Here are Steve's Sumatra invasion options from most direct to most indirect. This is so complicated it is a game entirely within itself:


I don't disagree with your points following this statement. I'd alter them a bit as I think there are a few wrinkles he could throw in to really mess you around --- but I doubt he'll do so --- but, generally they are sound. I would aver a thought for you though...

You spoke of his invasion options instead of his neutralisation options. Alfred has posted to his thread within the last dozen posts or so ( this is from memory but I don't see much activity there and Alfred's post occured within a timeframe within which not much change has occured so the point is valid even if the post count is a little off ) and I have a few thoughts about what Alfred might have posted and how you might have to consider it.

1. Alfred wouldn't have posted a question. Not his style and not necessary. Alfred would fairly well know the answer to any relevant question he would want to ask re: your opponent's thinking around Sumatra or strategically in general. Thus Alfred probably posted commentary regarding the strategic situation.

2. Alfred doesn't go in for opaque, obfuscatory yet, ultimately revealing sequiturs. His motivations are different than mine and so his post content and style also differs. Instead he posits a situation and describes the context, ramifications of it and the logical outcomes and influences of those factors on the strategic situation. In short he clarifies, points out errors in thought and suggests solutions instead of hinting at the problem and inviting the reader to do most of the work...

3. Alfred will NOT have made the mistake of viewing Sumatra within the prescribed confines of invasion and will, instead, be open to all options one's assumptions usually proscribe.

4. IF your opponent listens to Alfred you will need to plan for a neutralisation strategy which will be very different than anything you've outlined above. Perhaps you've considered it. I haven't seen clear evidence of that though.


With the above said I believe we'd have seen evidence in the recent past if your opponent were acting on Alfred's advice.... He doesn't appear to be so you probably won't be facing a neutralisation/bypass strategy but it would be worth spending 5 minutes thinking about how you would handle it if you did face it... even if purely as an exercise in planning. Of course, that's just my opinion, you may, of course, find it unnecessary in this game. For your next tranche of games though you may find yourself facing people who would be alive to the reality that encirclement is a matter of opinion --- one of my favourite military axioms of all time.

< Message edited by Nemo121 -- 6/1/2011 7:09:08 PM >

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

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Post #: 870
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