Matrix Games Forums

 Forums  Register  Login  Photo Gallery  Member List  Search  Calendars  FAQ 

My Profile  Inbox  Address Book  My Subscription  My Forums  Log Out

Random weather - Again

 
View related threads: (in this forum | in all forums)

Logged in as: Guest
Users viewing this topic: none
  Printable Version
All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> Gary Grigsby's War in the East Series >> Random weather - Again Page: [1] 2   next >   >>
Login
Message << Older Topic   Newer Topic >>
Random weather - Again - 6/10/2011 8:52:47 AM   
Tarhunnas


Posts: 3152
Joined: 1/27/2011
From: Hex X37, Y15
Status: offline 		I am in turn 50 of a GC with random weather. The date is May 28 1942. All of May up to now has been snow in the North Soviet zone. The rivers are frozen. See here! I checked the random weather table and discovered that the snow in Moscow can actually continue until June 19! I mean, this is crazy! Looking at the weather for Moscow right now IRL, it is 22 degrees centigrade!

I thought I can imagine the late snow is light mud, an unusually dry spring, but the ice! The rivers are still frozen and present no obstacle to combat and movement! No way there will be frozen rivers in Moscow in the middle of June!

I really think the random weather table has to be revised.
Post #: 1
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/10/2011 2:04:36 PM   
Theng

 

Posts: 259
Joined: 12/13/2002
Status: offline 		Ever heard of climate change? and no I am not kidding. The historic records are on the side of the game. Today's weather and climate has already measurably changed.

_____________________________

Molon Labe!

(in reply to Tarhunnas)
Post #: 2
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/10/2011 2:50:34 PM   
Tarhunnas


Posts: 3152
Joined: 1/27/2011
From: Hex X37, Y15
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Xian

Ever heard of climate change? and no I am not kidding. The historic records are on the side of the game. Today's weather and climate has already measurably changed.


Hardly to the extent that there was snow in Moscow in June in the 1940s!

(in reply to Theng)
Post #: 3
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/10/2011 4:44:18 PM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 7336
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline 		Global Warming or no, Snow is ridiculous. It's possible that Moscow had a cold snap or two into May, but not the kind of sustained cold temperatures it takes to create ICE conditions, or snow accumulation on the ground. No way!

_____________________________


(in reply to Tarhunnas)
Post #: 4
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/10/2011 4:54:50 PM   
fbs

 

Posts: 1048
Joined: 12/25/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas

I am in turn 50 of a GC with random weather. The date is May 28 1942. All of May up to now has been snow in the North Soviet zone.




Just wait until you get a giant tsunami that wipes all your units and leaves a huge oiler stranded in the middle of Moscow...

(in reply to Tarhunnas)
Post #: 5
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/10/2011 6:31:50 PM   
PeeDeeAitch


Posts: 1276
Joined: 1/1/2007
From: Laramie, Wyoming
Status: offline 		I blame JAMiAM.

_____________________________

"The torment of precautions often exceeds the dangers to be avoided. It is sometimes better to abandon one's self to destiny."

- Call me PDH

- WitE noob tester

(in reply to fbs)
Post #: 6
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/10/2011 10:03:39 PM   
Joel Billings


Posts: 32265
Joined: 9/20/2000
From: Santa Rosa, CA
Status: offline 		According to the random weather table, there's a 20% chance of snow each turn in the North Zone. The odds of getting snow the entire month (and it would take many turns of snow or a late April Blizzard to get freezing of the rivers) is extremely low. But that's the nature of "random" weather.

_____________________________

All understanding comes after the fact.
-- Soren Kierkegaard

(in reply to Tarhunnas)
Post #: 7
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/10/2011 10:55:54 PM   
Scook_99

 

Posts: 301
Joined: 6/20/2007
Status: offline 		I do have to ask, where can you find the weather data for the 1940s? I have done some quick searches and no avail. I am pretty sure there have been freak years where snow and ice have been on the ground in June. For example, in Iowa, 2, maybe 3 years ago, it started snowing in October, and that snow didn't melt until the middle of June the next year.

(in reply to Joel Billings)
Post #: 8
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/11/2011 12:37:08 AM   
Theng

 

Posts: 259
Joined: 12/13/2002
Status: offline 		We don't have to go back that far actually. There was snow in Moscow on June 10th 2008, and June 4th 2003, and June 5th 2010 (a tiny bit), before that we have to go back to June 1963 for snowfall. Now we can argue about the amount of snow...

http://www.city-data.com/forum/idaho/351163-snow-moscow-today-june-10th-2008-a.html

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/a-rare-june-snow-falls-on-parts-of-moscow/238054.html

http://www.mymoscowblog.com/?p=144

_____________________________

Molon Labe!

(in reply to Scook_99)
Post #: 9
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/11/2011 12:45:10 AM   
Scook_99

 

Posts: 301
Joined: 6/20/2007
Status: offline 		Thank you! I like real data before I come to conclusions. Ice pack seems rather improbable just based on the above links, but then, not impossible.

(in reply to Theng)
Post #: 10
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/11/2011 2:25:55 AM   
Baron von Beer

 

Posts: 232
Joined: 9/18/2003
Status: offline 		Xian, you do realize that the first link is Moscow, Idaho, USA (Home of University of Idaho), and the last link was not snow, but from trees?


< Message edited by Baron von Beer -- 6/11/2011 2:26:39 AM >

(in reply to Scook_99)
Post #: 11
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/11/2011 3:14:16 AM   
Theng

 

Posts: 259
Joined: 12/13/2002
Status: offline 		Yes, but only after I posted them. Damn poplar trees!

_____________________________

Molon Labe!

(in reply to Baron von Beer)
Post #: 12
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/11/2011 5:45:50 AM   
Baron von Beer

 

Posts: 232
Joined: 9/18/2003
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Xian

Yes, but only after I posted them. Damn poplar trees!


They're the cleverest of all trees after all.

(in reply to Theng)
Post #: 13
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/11/2011 6:39:34 AM   
JAMiAM

 

Posts: 6165
Joined: 2/8/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Baron von Beer


quote:

ORIGINAL: Xian

Yes, but only after I posted them. Damn poplar trees!


They're the cleverest of all trees after all.

Everyone likes a clever tree. It makes them...poplar...

(in reply to Baron von Beer)
Post #: 14
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/11/2011 7:36:40 AM   
Speedysteve

 

Posts: 15998
Joined: 9/11/2001
From: Reading, England
Status: offline 		ba.....duh.....dum

_____________________________

WitE 2 Tester
WitE Tester
BTR/BoB Tester

(in reply to JAMiAM)
Post #: 15
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/11/2011 2:24:50 PM   
henri51


Posts: 1151
Joined: 1/16/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Speedy

ba.....duh.....dum


On another thread, I proposed that the game use a randomly chosen month (say January) among say 50 years, and use the weather for that month.If the numbers are not available for Russia, the numbers for areas of North America are probably similar.

And as one who lives in an area with weather pretty much equivalent to Moscow, I can vouch that snow in June is possible (I have even seen snow fall in July), but that its effect is felt for less than a day, after which it melts and its effect is equivalent to rain. So the game's making it possible to have a month or even a week of snow in June is highly unrealistic.

(in reply to Speedysteve)
Post #: 16
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/11/2011 7:25:45 PM   
Joel Billings


Posts: 32265
Joined: 9/20/2000
From: Santa Rosa, CA
Status: offline 		So we're good then because we don't have snow weeks in June.

_____________________________

All understanding comes after the fact.
-- Soren Kierkegaard

(in reply to henri51)
Post #: 17
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/11/2011 8:02:08 PM   
Tarhunnas


Posts: 3152
Joined: 1/27/2011
From: Hex X37, Y15
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Joel Billings

So we're good then because we don't have snow weeks in June.


It says in the manual (the updated one that came with the latest beta) that the May weather is in effect up to June 19, and that includes snow. Has that been changed or am I misunderstanding something? Sorry in that case.

(in reply to Joel Billings)
Post #: 18
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/11/2011 10:06:24 PM   
Joel Billings


Posts: 32265
Joined: 9/20/2000
From: Santa Rosa, CA
Status: offline 		My bad. You're absolutely right. Could be snow in June, although again, the chance you'll still have a freeze then is probably pretty low, but assuming a late April Blizzard, anything is possible.

_____________________________

All understanding comes after the fact.
-- Soren Kierkegaard

(in reply to Tarhunnas)
Post #: 19
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/13/2011 12:06:25 PM   
morganbj


Posts: 3634
Joined: 8/12/2007
From: Mosquito Bite, Texas
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Scook_99

... in Iowa, 2, maybe 3 years ago, it started snowing in October, and that snow didn't melt until the middle of June the next year.

More evidence of glogal warming.


_____________________________

Occasionally, and randomly, problems and solutions collide. The probability of these collisions is inversely related to the number of committees working on the solutions. -- Me.

(in reply to Scook_99)
Post #: 20
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/14/2011 10:47:19 AM   
Taipan61

 

Posts: 27
Joined: 5/8/2004
Status: offline 		The thing I do hate with historical weather is just that...Everyone knows the exact turn when mud/snow/blizzard appears, and accommodates many turns in advance for this situation. The same situation occurs when playing the AI. Yeah, it is very nice to know from opening turn in 41 that you will get mud on such-n-such turn and get the terrible winter of 41-42, but that in itself is very a-historical. Just as a-historical is not having a clue what the weather will be like in one weeks time if the random weather option is chosen.

What needs to be added to the game is a "forecasted weather" information tab.

The tab would advise the predicted weather for the next turn. If the historical weather option is chosen this predicted weather is what will happen, however if "random weather" is chosen this predicted weather will have a good chance of happening, but the result is not absolute. At least then you have a turns grace knowing what you could be up against next turn, instead of suddenly being up to your neck in mud and your panzers way out of position, while the weeks before had been full of brilliant sunshine.


(in reply to morganbj)
Post #: 21
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/14/2011 12:19:19 PM   
Tarhunnas


Posts: 3152
Joined: 1/27/2011
From: Hex X37, Y15
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Taipan

The thing I do hate with historical weather is just that...Everyone knows the exact turn when mud/snow/blizzard appears, and accommodates many turns in advance for this situation. The same situation occurs when playing the AI. Yeah, it is very nice to know from opening turn in 41 that you will get mud on such-n-such turn and get the terrible winter of 41-42, but that in itself is very a-historical. Just as a-historical is not having a clue what the weather will be like in one weeks time if the random weather option is chosen.

What needs to be added to the game is a "forecasted weather" information tab.

The tab would advise the predicted weather for the next turn. If the historical weather option is chosen this predicted weather is what will happen, however if "random weather" is chosen this predicted weather will have a good chance of happening, but the result is not absolute. At least then you have a turns grace knowing what you could be up against next turn, instead of suddenly being up to your neck in mud and your panzers way out of position, while the weeks before had been full of brilliant sunshine.



The problem now is that random weather is too random and non-random weather is too predictable. Something along the lines of what you suggest would be good, though what you say is not too far from how random weather works now, it is just that the table is a bit "wild and crazy".

An other alternative would be to let the historical weather have a chance of being either 1 or a ½ turn early or late. That means that both players know that mud is likely to occur on turn 18, but i might occur in the German turn 17 or in the Soviet turn 17, or in any player turn of turn 19. Similarly when it ends and snow starts. Thus the uncertainty would go both ways and not as now create unlikely maneuvers because you know that there will be mud the next enemy turn. The end of mud could be adjusted so that the length of mud would very likely be the same as non-random weather so as not to alter balance too much.



_____________________________

Read my AAR:s ye mighty, and despair!
41Ger
41Sov
41Ger
42Ger
42Sov

(in reply to Taipan61)
Post #: 22
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/14/2011 2:20:31 PM   
Ridgeway

 

Posts: 139
Joined: 2/21/2011
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas


quote:

ORIGINAL: Taipan

The thing I do hate with historical weather is just that...Everyone knows the exact turn when mud/snow/blizzard appears, and accommodates many turns in advance for this situation. The same situation occurs when playing the AI. Yeah, it is very nice to know from opening turn in 41 that you will get mud on such-n-such turn and get the terrible winter of 41-42, but that in itself is very a-historical. Just as a-historical is not having a clue what the weather will be like in one weeks time if the random weather option is chosen.

What needs to be added to the game is a "forecasted weather" information tab.

The tab would advise the predicted weather for the next turn. If the historical weather option is chosen this predicted weather is what will happen, however if "random weather" is chosen this predicted weather will have a good chance of happening, but the result is not absolute. At least then you have a turns grace knowing what you could be up against next turn, instead of suddenly being up to your neck in mud and your panzers way out of position, while the weeks before had been full of brilliant sunshine.



The problem now is that random weather is too random and non-random weather is too predictable. Something along the lines of what you suggest would be good, though what you say is not too far from how random weather works now, it is just that the table is a bit "wild and crazy".

An other alternative would be to let the historical weather have a chance of being either 1 or a ½ turn early or late. That means that both players know that mud is likely to occur on turn 18, but i might occur in the German turn 17 or in the Soviet turn 17, or in any player turn of turn 19. Similarly when it ends and snow starts. Thus the uncertainty would go both ways and not as now create unlikely maneuvers because you know that there will be mud the next enemy turn. The end of mud could be adjusted so that the length of mud would very likely be the same as non-random weather so as not to alter balance too much.


That is not a bad idea. The other possibility that I can think of would be to add a "rain" weather event, with movement etc. effects similar to snow, and provide that there could be no mud unless there had been a rain or snow event in one of the previous 2 weeks or so. This would mitigate the most catastrophic effects of random "mud" in 1941 -- that it comes literally out of the blue with instantaneous effect.

(in reply to Tarhunnas)
Post #: 23
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/14/2011 11:03:32 PM   
KamilS

 

Posts: 1827
Joined: 2/5/2011
Status: offline 		I assume these numbers mean weather roll after modifications. If so, why I didn't get snow or mud? I am referring to results from 1st (Europe and south Soviet) and 3rd (south Soviet) winter turn





Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Kamil -- 6/14/2011 11:10:52 PM >

(in reply to Ridgeway)
Post #: 24
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/14/2011 11:19:30 PM   
Joel Billings


Posts: 32265
Joined: 9/20/2000
From: Santa Rosa, CA
Status: offline 		Because of the rule that is in the readme file from several versions ago:


Missing Rule – Section 22.2 should contain an additional exception that states there will be no snow or mud during December 1941 and January 1942 (only Blizzard).

_____________________________

All understanding comes after the fact.
-- Soren Kierkegaard

(in reply to KamilS)
Post #: 25
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/14/2011 11:23:56 PM   
KamilS

 

Posts: 1827
Joined: 2/5/2011
Status: offline
quote:

Joel Billings

Because of the rule that is in the readme file from several versions ago:


Missing Rule – Section 22.2 should contain an additional exception that states there will be no snow or mud during December 1941 and January 1942 (only Blizzard).


I don't underestand. According to manual there is max one of each during dec and jan.

Do you mean that there was update and now random weather doesn't apply to December and January?

(in reply to Joel Billings)
Post #: 26
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/15/2011 12:47:24 PM   
KamilS

 

Posts: 1827
Joined: 2/5/2011
Status: offline
quote:

Joel Billings

Because of the rule that is in the readme file from several versions ago:


Missing Rule – Section 22.2 should contain an additional exception that states there will be no snow or mud during December 1941 and January 1942 (only Blizzard).


Yes, you are right it was changed in V1.03 Beta 2 – January 21, 2011. So all this talk about how random weather balances itself - Germans get mud during summer soviets snow during blizzard was not true. What is the point of random weather then, if only Germans suffer?

I am extremely angry, because in game options I should have been informed that choosing random weather equals unbalancing game. I would never have choosen that stupid option if I knew about that change. Obviously reading manual doesn't help in understanding the game.

During summer, I got mud on turn 5th. Not only lost turn and got mu panzers badly damaged, but I lost 3 mot div and 1/3 pz div. Now I learn that Soviet won't find themselves in similar unfavourable conditions.

Thank you very much.

< Message edited by Kamil -- 6/15/2011 12:53:53 PM >

(in reply to KamilS)
Post #: 27
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/15/2011 1:00:52 PM   
Tarhunnas


Posts: 3152
Joined: 1/27/2011
From: Hex X37, Y15
Status: offline 		Random weather leaves things to luck. Unfavorable weather at the wrong time can benefit the Germans or it can benefit the Soviets. Less mud in the autumn or less blizzard in winter will be a big help to the Germans, while obviously mud in the summer will upset the German offensive. It will usually even out, but of course if you have a lot of good or bad luck in a game it will change the balance. If you look at history, a mild winter in 1941 would have "unbalanced" the second world war in favor of the Germans.

(in reply to KamilS)
Post #: 28
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/15/2011 1:08:37 PM   
KamilS

 

Posts: 1827
Joined: 2/5/2011
Status: offline
quote:

Tarhunnas

Random weather leaves things to luck. Unfavorable weather at the wrong time can benefit the Germans or it can benefit the Soviets. Less mud in the autumn or less blizzard in winter will be a big help to the Germans



How can it even up? I don't really see it.

Snow can appear only in February, when Germans are quite strong. It would have impact in December and January, but it won't happened. No snow in Dec and Jan, should equal no mud in Jul and Aug otherwise there is no balance at all.


So I guess there is unwritten rule, that only people with lots of luck should try to play as Germans.



< Message edited by Kamil -- 6/15/2011 1:12:33 PM >

(in reply to Tarhunnas)
Post #: 29
RE: Random weather - Again - 6/15/2011 1:13:00 PM   
henri51


Posts: 1151
Joined: 1/16/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas

Random weather leaves things to luck. Unfavorable weather at the wrong time can benefit the Germans or it can benefit the Soviets. Less mud in the autumn or less blizzard in winter will be a big help to the Germans, while obviously mud in the summer will upset the German offensive. It will usually even out, but of course if you have a lot of good or bad luck in a game it will change the balance. If you look at history, a mild winter in 1941 would have "unbalanced" the second world war in favor of the Germans.



Not in the early game: unfavorable weather in 1941 or even 1942 can favor only the Soviets, since it is the Germans who are on the offensive.

Henri

(in reply to Tarhunnas)
Post #: 30
Page:   [1] 2   next >   >>
All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> Gary Grigsby's War in the East Series >> Random weather - Again Page: [1] 2   next >   >>
Jump to:





New Messages No New Messages
Hot Topic w/ New Messages Hot Topic w/o New Messages
Locked w/ New Messages Locked w/o New Messages
 Post New Thread
 Reply to Message
 Post New Poll
 Submit Vote
 Delete My Own Post
 Delete My Own Thread
 Rate Posts


Forum Software © ASPPlayground.NET Advanced Edition 2.4.5 ANSI

0.719