Canoerebel
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Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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5/5/42
DEI: The quiet continues - no appearance of imminent Japanese invasions - so here's a look at the three strongpoints of Fortress Sumatra;
Palembang: 1533 AV, 5.28 forts, 6.87 airfield, 191k supply; one CD unit (276 US Arty with eight 155mm guns).
Oosthaven: 1529 AV, 4.51 forts; 8.05 airfield; 30k supply; six CD uinits: Tarakan (ten 120mm and eleven 75mm); 5th Aussie (sixteen 6"); 7th Aussie (four 6"); 1st Indian (eight 6"); 2nd Indian (eight 6"); Sarawak (two 6").
Benkolen: 634 AV, 3.88 forts; 6.20 airfield; 10k supply; two CD units with one more on the way: Medan (four 150mm and six 75mm) and C/D Aussie Heavy Reg't (five 155mm). An American coastal arty unit will arrive in about a week.
Oosthaven is the strongpoint, but here's how the Allies handle a major landing at any of these three locations:
Palembang: With terrain effects, forts, and prep bonus, Allied adjusted AV will be well in excess of 4,500 AV. That means there's no way the enemy can bring enough to land here and take it short term. If the enemy were to land here, the Allies would employ massed air attacks and would strongly reinforce using units no longer needed to defend other beaches. Within a week, the Allied AV would rise to at least 2,500 yielding an adjusted AV of something more than 7,500.
Oosthaven: With 1500 AV behind four forts but poor defensive terrain, the adjusted AV would not be much more than 1500. This means the Allies have to maul the troops while landing. The abundance of CD guns will help as will Allied air power. The Allies would almost certainly commit the weight of their combat ships, at least if the invasion were to take place in the near term. If, on the other hand, the enemy takes western Java, builds the airfields at Batavia and Merak large, and impose a titanic air and naval air presence in the immediate area, the Allies would have to weight options carefully. But it will take weeks or months for Japan to orchestrate these conditions - precious time that Japan doesn't have. However, you can see why the Allies will look for a chance to pounce on an invasion of Java by employing carriers and combat TFs under favorable conditions.
Benkolen: With just 650 AV behind three forts on rough terrain, this base might seem the most desirable to Japan. The adjusted AV of perhaps 2,000 is manageable, but this is the base most exposed to interdiction by Allied carriers and combat ships, and I would commit them in a major way if I could destroy or maul the enemy invasion at or before the beaches.
Counterinvasion(s): If the Japanese come for Java or Sumatra in the next month to six weeks, the Allies are in position to implement counterinvasions of Malaya/Burma and the Gilbert Islands. These operations are important in their own right, but the primary purpose is to disorient Steve just when he's trying to focus on critical operations in the DEI.
NoPac: Intel and patrols indicate that Japan is preparing for a massive counterinvasion of Paramushiro and Onnekotan. The Allies have enough units here to give the impression "danger," but this impression is misleading. The Allies are hoping Japan will unleash a tiger up here finding only a squirrel as quarry.
China: The Chiense just blew through two depleted IJ divisions (39 and 34) and one brigade at Psiangtang, near Changsha. This Chinese army will now proceed towards Kukong to help with the meeting engagement that is developing there. Meanwhile, much of the Changsha garrison will sally forth to deal with those to depleted IJA divisions. Up at Anyang, a large Chinese army will attack tomorrow and should easily take that base. The Chinese are remaining "within themselves" - i.e., not going too far and getting spread out, but instead focusing on demolishing enemy units. The overall situation in China clearly has Steve's attention. He's sending in reinforcements, which presumably means he won't have quite as many troops available to deal with the Pacific and DEI.
Burma: Very interesting situation in Burma. Allies suspicions that Burma is weakly defended are correct. The probing Burma Army unit moving southeast from Prome has found just one enemy unit at Rangoon. From SigInt, we expect that unit is 15th Army HQ. Steve will reinforce, but he doesn't have much in Burma, meaning an Allied invasion could give him fits. The Allies have 27h USA Division and two UK brigades forming the core of the invasion force. They are at Colombo awaiting the opporunity.
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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 
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