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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A)

 
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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 7/31/2011 4:17:40 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Program Note.

Gents, I have to go to the Trans Pecos (a/k/a the far West Texas Desert) for a business trip until Wednesday evening, so we will have a brief hiatus. Hate to quit on the eve of invading Java, but c'est la guerre.

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 7/31/2011 7:18:18 AM >

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/4/2011 3:01:19 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		I'm back. A quick update from watching the March 23 replay. Cuttlefish is withdrawing from Sian! Interesting. He probably concludes (as I do) that Sian will fall, and has decided to prevent the massive losses that would be incurred by the forced retreat of a 32 LCU stack. We'll try to catch him on the way out the door.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/4/2011 7:39:49 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		March 23, 1942

Subs

O-16 sinks a CM bound for Singapore.

4th Fleet

The Raiders find no targets today, but our sub spots 2 ships hiding in port at Canton. We'll try a port strike tomorrow and then retire.

SE Fleet

Umboi Island invaded, Rekata Bay falls.

14th Army

No change.

16th Army

The Wyndham invasion TF and Celebes Sea Squadron withdraw toward Kendari.

25th Army

Things continue to heat up in Java. MKB and the invasion fleet are spotted by a Catalina that is then downed by CAP. A small raid by 3 139s results in two aircraft shot down by Zeros and one that misses an xAK. IJAAF and IJNAF raids hit the airfields at Batavia, Madioen and Bandoeng (this is where MKB sends its Kates). Results are gratifying, with trashed fields and twelve more a/c destroyed on the ground. We have done our best to degrade CF's ability to interfere with our landings tomorrow.

One more raid by Betties from Singers goes in against Batavia's port. The plan here was to try to catch PTs to minimize an attack on the landing ships. We don't find any PTs, sinking 9 AMcs instead.

15th Army

The enemy army continues to retire in the direction of Imphal while we pursue. Akyab is well supplied enough that we spent the day flying in troops instead. Raw AS is going up about 15 points per day when we can do this. The crisis here appears to have passed. A supply ship is en route and we will soon fly an Air HQ into Port Blair to endanger amhip invasions or bombardment runs.

China

The KMT is withdrawing from Sian! We will not let them march out unmolested. Plan is to wait one day for a fresh division to arrive and then try a DA. Our next move in China should be carefully considered. Thoughts are welcome. Air recon shows that CF is slowly adding troops to a clear hex near Hankow. A show of force or a real attack?

A fresh Brigade has arrived at Pakhoi. Raw AS is 323:219 in our favor. We will try a DA tomorrow.

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 8/5/2011 10:22:42 PM >

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/4/2011 7:44:13 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Cribtop, from where I sit (at a distance), China now seems to be the critical theater of opportunity in the game.  You have created a breach in the enemy's MLR (not just his Chinese MLR, but the MLR for all the Allies).  To my way of thinking, this becomes the place where you should send everything available to exploit that breach and turn it into a route.

Are there actions you might take elsewhere to compliment the situation in China?  If Cutles if feeding in aircraft from SEAC, can you ramp up pressure there to take advantage?  Can you threaten the Chinese MLR from the east (Changsha, Kweilin) or even from the south (moving north from Lashio)?


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Post #: 424
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/4/2011 8:40:06 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Dan, I really agree. Assuming Sian falls, it is an opportunity to neutralize China for a long time, perhaps for the whole game. I have already paid to move one Kwantung Army division into China and plan to buy out another as soon as the PPs stack up. I'm moving them to an unrestricted command so that someday they can man the perimeter, but I am looking at a big push in China.

What should the objective be? It seems that killing Chinese units is at best an ancillary objective. Good when it happens to snowball my combat power advantage and to pocket VPs, but not an end in itself. I am of the opinion that maiming the Chinese economy is the correct strategic target. That means capturing Sian and if possible Lanchow to rob them of usable oil, then focusing on bases with industry to rob them of resources and supplies. There is also value in making moves to shorten our lines and thus further add to the combat power differential.

Options seem to be marching on Lanchow, cutting off and destroying the ChiCom army in the north, turning into the Chungking basin via Anking (amazing this is even on the table), Changsha, or the South. I could advance from Lashio but I'm not sure that's good bang for the buck as we would fight over the mountains for in effect three bases. The Chungking basin would make for a cool adventure, but supply difficulties rule it out IMHO. Thus, I'm leaning toward taking or at least isolating Lanchow as part of a broader offensive to completely conquer north China. Assuming that works we will shift south to move on Changsha via the western approach rather than via direct assault. One option available is a hook into the Calcutta region to seize Assam and cut off even air supplies to China, but that would require a major change in planned phase two objectives. Lots of thinking to do here...

PS the major danger to pushing on Lanchow seems to be the possibility of a counteroffensive from Ichang and Changsha. At some point we will get a big army pretty far into the breach and at least somewhat vulnerable to being cut off. However, Lanchow isn't much farther, and conquering Yenan will free up troops manning the line in the north eventually.

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 8/4/2011 8:47:27 PM >

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/4/2011 8:48:04 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		CV 2 has had some intersting experience intentionally withdrawing the Chinese amry from Sian and Changsha in order to reduce the size of his MLR and (according to him) reduce supply requirements.  So he might feel differently about the Chinese withdrawal from Sian.  On the other hand, I think it was Alfred that contends that Sian is one of three key Chinese cities.  So you may get varying opinions, but they are all worth considering.

To me, the Chinese army is the main target. As you know, the Chinese suffer massive losses whenever forced to retreat.  So my objective (were I you) would be to catch and savage Chinese units whenever possible.

If you threaten Chungking from the north (IE, the Kienko to Sian road), then Cuttlefish is going to get pretty desperate.  He's going to have to draw down his Changsha to Kweilin MLR, thus perhaps giving you opportunities there (assuming you have a big army in that region also).

If you can get enough supply to Sian (and that base in the woods to the south) to support a bombing campaign, I think I would try to force my way down the woods road towards Kienko, and then to the east apply pressure at Kweilin while feinting towards Changsha, Chengte, or Henyang.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/4/2011 8:53:51 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		P.S.  If I thought China was really vulnerable and reeling, I would begin evluating possible action against NE India and Assam with the objective of truly cutting off China from supply.  Not saying I would do it - that decision would be made only after I evaluated it against other options.

Caveat:  I'm not familiar with the Japanese garrison requirements for China.  That would certainly be info I'd want to consider in making my "grandiose" plans.

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"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/4/2011 8:58:16 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Wow, that is going big indeed. I'll look at the map carefully tonight. There is certainly an argument that a credible threat to Chungking forces abandonment of the south without firing a shot. The analyses I've looked at concluded that Sian and Lanchow are key to the Chinese economy as without them you lose both your oil and HI. I'm no Mike Solli, however, so this assumption could be off. I still worry that if I go Chungking the correct counter would be to attack the base of the salient. I'm pretty stout in that region, but may need some reinforcements.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/4/2011 9:01:44 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		What, in Alfred's opinion, are the other two key Chinese cities?

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/5/2011 1:54:22 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		To be honest, I can't recall exactly where I saw that post, what was in it, or who wrote it.  I read it just a few days ago, I know Sian was one of the three, and I'm pretty sure Alfred was the author.  I would assume Changsha and Chungking would be the other two just from a "they would have to be, wouldn't they?" perspective.

If you go towards Chungking in stregnth, and if the Chinese army that once occupied Sian is fighting to slow you down, China will not have much of anything left with which to attack "your base."  IE, you could occupy Sian, Nanning, Loyang, Chengchow, Kaifeng and the other bases with relativley small forces and hold the salients against whatever China might send.  Decent IJA garrisons backed up by forts and some bombers are going to hurt whatever China could send that way.

For China to send anything major that way would require China to strip units from the Changsha front, which you could either counter by stripping your own units or which you could use as an opportunity to strike on the Changsha front.

I'm working with a lack of knowledge here.  I have no idea how much you and Cuttles have in the two front regions.  I'm going on the assuption that both of you have sizeable armies in each front, that you've just blown a gap in one of the fronts and are about to pour troops into the breach, and that doing so will create a crisis sufficient to force Cuttles to draw down troops from the other front.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/5/2011 2:45:40 PM   
FatR

 

Posts: 2522
Joined: 10/23/2009
From: St.Petersburg, Russia
Status: offline 		Important and vulnerable points in the Chinese defensive line are Sian, Changsha and Pingsiang. Sian is economically important by itself, can be assaulted from several directions and if it is taken everything still south of it will be cut off. The loss of latter two will make the loss of Chinese center position, with its considerable amounts of light industry, inevitable, because Chinese cannot defend open hexes against sufficient concentration of airpower, and these hexes provide only x2 defensive bonus (assaulting a city with an x3 defensive bonus has little hope of success, unless Chinese are thoroughly weakened in previous operations).

The most economically important Chinese cities are Chungking, Lanchow and Chengtu. Sian I'd rate as the fourth most important.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/5/2011 3:23:56 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

As a personal preference, I've always treated Akyab as part of India so that the Allied player can use restricted Indian troops there.  Seems reasonable since Akyab has road connections only to India.  Unless you feel really strongly about it, I wouldn't raise the issue.

Congrats on making it to March 10.  I hope you'll go all the way with this one.  Knowing your gentlemanly opponent, I'm sure you will.

Go get 'em!


Early in my campaign, I volunteered to not use restricted units Indian units in Burma, thinking it gave an unfair advantage to the Allies. (Scen #2) However, paying retail and faced with the reality of losing China and seeing massive Japanese reinforcments march into Burma via Paoshan (has not fallen by 1/44 but will fall within two months or sooner) the reality is that there are just not enough PPs in the pool to purchase enough of the Indian army to counter this. Given the pressing need for PPs for other mundane needs, I would have effectively prevented myself from conducting any sort of offensive in Burma until 1945 and by then it would be too late due to Chinese theater troops flooding Burma.

Likewise, I am beginning to think that any HR restricting restricted Chinese units is just as flawed, because there are only about two full army corps of Chinese troops that actually can be bought out (the rest are all white restricted) whereas about 2/3rd of all the Japanese troops in China can (given enough PPs) bought out and moved to other theaters. If this house rule is in play, then the "only" Japanese strategy should be to take out China as it just opens up the table for virtually unlimited Japanese troop reinforcements to all theaters while the Allied player has no options. As it turns out. I have been forced to move about 30-40 shattered restricted Chinese units into N Burma because they won't take replacements in what remains of China while they continue to eat supply that is needed to sustain the few remaining good units that I have there.

Mind you these policies seemed good and fair when the campaign started a year and a half ago but experience is teaching me that they are not really workable-if your opponent plans from the beginning to take out China. If your opponent stops and does not try to take out China then it would probably work out OK. Perhaps an agreement not to use restricted Indian units in Burma before mid 1943 would work better. I don't know.

So, I would advise any Allied player to seriouly consider the implications of accepting HRs along these lines.

Remember, "real men pay retail."



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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/5/2011 3:43:22 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
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From: Maryland
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

I'm back. A quick update from watching the March 23 replay. Cuttlefish is withdrawing from Sian! Interesting. He probably concludes (as I do) that Sian will fall, and has decided to prevent the massive losses that would be incurred by the forced retreat of a 32 LCU stack. We'll try to catch him on the way out the door.



Sian is one of those mystical Chinese cities that will not hold supply. As the Allies you must defend in front of it and your supply flow will be fine. However once you retreat into Sian then all of your troops will eventually have no supply. It can never be defended. There are quite a number of Chinese cities that just will not hold supply. Although many issues have been corrected, I believe that this is one of the major Allied handicaps of the game as many of the natural strong points in China cannot be defended. I know that the Japanese player experiences this too in certain cities but the situation in China makes an already dire situation for the Allies almost impossible. For the Allies, the loss of Sian and Changsha create a supply nightmare that really never gets corrected and just keeps snowballing. One item in the new betas that might make a big difference is the ability to stockpile supplies in locations. Perhaps the Chinese player can now pick one key city and build up enough supply to allow units to regularly take replacments. The biggest problem for me in China was that I had accumulated over 4,000 squads in my pools but my units would not (well, very slowly) take replacments due to the lack of supply.

Good AAR by the way.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/5/2011 3:49:26 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		I will post a screenshot of the China situation, but the bottom line is that both sides have committed the bulk of their force to the battles around Nanyang and Sian. Recall that a sizable Chinese army was destroyed at Nanyang, swinging the balance in Japan's favor.

In the far north a/k/a the Yenan front, both sides have some forces but not a lot. What the Chinese have here is probably a bit bigger than the IJA in size, but that is probably more than made up for by lack of supply. I calculated last night I could scrape together two divisions and a brigade for offensive action. Remember that one element of the Sian campaign was to cut the road links between Sian and Yenan except for the yellow road that takes a roundabout path way to the north.

In the central front, defined as Nanyang to Chansha, we have stout garrisons of 600ish AV in the city hexes and across the river from Ichang. These forces have 100% prep and five forts in the cities, four forts in the country. Only a major effort could dislodge them. We have a division in Nanyang as a local reserve because the front between Ichang and Nanyang is thinly held. The IJA is assembling a 1000 AV force south of Changsha. It was originally intended to start clearing out South China front bases but I believe I will use it to seize Piangsang (currently empty) and spoil CF's demonstration or budding offensive in front of Wuchang. The KMT has 8 LCUs at Ichang, 5 in front of Wuchang, 9 in Changsha, 11 in Kanshien and 7 in Kukong. Recon of rear area bases reveals no additional concentrations.

In South China, neither side has much. We plan to capture Pakhoi (finally) and then will probably mount a local offensive to seize the lightly held base near Canton with a W name I can't remember.

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 8/5/2011 4:02:44 PM >

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/5/2011 3:56:56 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		If his MLR includes Kanhsien, Kukong and Wuchong, he's pretty far forward and subject to attack on the flanks (assuming you can get enough troops to mount a serious offensive in China).  Those bases are also forward enough for you to bomb from a big airfield with lots of supply - like Canton.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/5/2011 4:02:14 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		PS crsutton, it is always hard to try to tweak things. JFBs were worried about massive early offensives from India into Burma, and this HR thus evolved. AFBs often logically requested that the rule apply to Kwantung Army units entering China as a balance. It is entirely possible that the real issue was that it is too easy still to supply a ground offensive in Burma. We are muddling along so far, but both players have a commitment to a non-gamey approach and I would have no problem re-visiting the HRs later.

I did spend some time last night considering China from the perspective of "even if the game would let me effectively knock China out of the war is that realistic and should I stop at some point?" For now I think we haven't gone too far down that road, but I will pause to think on that question as needed. Certainly IRL the IJA did not have the oomph to fully defeat China. Indeed, the failure to confront that fact is what eventually backed the Japanese leadership into a hopeless war with the US.

Finally, a thought from last night. It occurs to me that the retreat paths from Sian are such that CF either falls back on Ankang/Kienko or Lanchow or splits his force. I will assume he won't split (although if he does I would be thrilled). Thus, won't he HAVE to protect Chungking? And won't that mean that Lanchow is likely to fall into the IJA's lap? All of this swings me a bit toward Canoerebel's suggestion.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/5/2011 4:21:48 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Yes, the only viable retreat path from Sian is towards Kienko and Chungking.  To retreat towards Lanchow would be disaster - bad supply and worse position.  The Chinese have to withdraw in where they can (potentially) combine forces with the Changsha-sector troops if necessary.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/5/2011 5:04:54 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline 		Hi Cribtop,

I think the key to China is the north. I understand the importance of Sian for many players, but in my opinion the loss of Lanchow is the real killer. It has 4x the fuel/oil production as Sian. I also think Lashio to Kunming is worth pursuing. They are only held with divisional strength and would require reinforcements to be drawn out from Central China to be defended adequately. If you are pushing China hard I don't see how Cuttlefish would be able to divert any additional troops to this front. Kunming is an important source of supply as well with substantial industry. Also, if you worry about an early drive from Commonwealth troops into Burma, what better way to seal the Burma Road than to control the Chinese portion of it. You can also grab the dot bases to the south of Kunming, and build them up to draw supply for your troops around Kunming if the Allies eventually push deep into Burma early.

In the Changsha region, if you are patient and build up the forts at Pingsiang, Wuchow, Hankow and Kukong you can safely lower your troop commitment levels here. Protect Canton and these bases and what can the Chinese take from you in the south that can't be taken back later? The troops you free up here will win you Chungking. Also, in the south, once Kweilin is taken that flanks the entire Changsha front, no river crossings, you are in great defensive terrain and your enemy is left defending clear terrain bases. To me, Kweilin is the key base to unhinge the entire Changsha front. Also, send large supply TF's directly up the river to Hankow on a regular basis and you won't have supply issues at all, you'll be able to build your forts and keep the troops moving 24/7.

I've had good success in China so far, but learned as I went. Knowing what I do now, I'd have struck harder and faster at the points I've mentioned and China would definitely be on the brink right now. Just my two cents and my AAR provides a glimpse of how I achieved my current position there if interested. Or look at Fletcher's AAR, he drove Sian to Kienko to Chungking and said he got enough supply to keep moving provided he guarded his supply LOC.

_____________________________

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Post #: 438
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/5/2011 5:20:16 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		On another matter, Cribtop, I appreciate your comment regarding your desire to think the whole China thing through to make sure it is consistent with the tenor of the game you and Cuttles were expecting.  That's the kind of sportsmanship anybody would expect from a good Texan.

I can tell you that from my perspective players are doing the greatest honor to the "real belligerants" by playing the cleanest, hardest hitting game possible.  In WWII, both the Axis and Allied sides probed for weak points.  When they found one they exploited it with everything possible.  To my way of thinking, we honor those men by adopting the same philosophy.

If we instead pull back with the idea of "this didn't happen in the real war and probably couldn't have happened," we fit the war into a small box of "what happened" that seriously detracts from the real essence of warfare.  If we're just repeating what happened, we lose most of the sense of evaluating a very complex situation, looking for opportunities that the complex situation creates, moving to act on thos opportunities, and then exploiting our successes.

I realize, however, that a sizeable chunk of AE players have a different approach.

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Post #: 439
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/5/2011 10:03:46 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		Lanchow is hard to take but a northern campaign is amazingly easy for the Japanese player. In my game Viperpol took a large right hook taking all the cities in Northern China using about five or six divisions and a bunch of armor. In the end, he was running a campaign in North China with a supply chain running about 1,000 miles back to his base but had no trouble supplying his forces. Meanwhile my units were constantly short of supply. It just drove me crazy as I made my plans based on the expectation that like in the real campaign, any thought of an offensive in North China would have been impossible or very difficult at best. It is the sobering part of your first campaign to discover how sometimes the game thwarts your expectations. I sometimes wonder if players who have no knowlege of the Pacific campaing might be better off as they won't play the game based on preconceived notions. In the end it was the Japanese tanks that did it. In open terrain, the Chinese army has no defense against them and there is no problem marching or supplying them over even alpine hex sides......

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Post #: 440
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/5/2011 10:21:56 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		March 24, 1942

"The invasion began and we missed it."

- R.E.M. Begin the Begin

Subs

O-19 is twice chased off by escorts of the Java invasion TF. Skipjack then duds on BB Nagato in Indes Fleet before that sub takes a real DC hit from an escorting DD. Overall a relief but no doubt tomorrow every sub in the quadrant will be in Kalidjati.

4th Fleet

Funafuti invaded and taken by SA. The CVE Raider port attack at Canton is scrubbed by bad weather. However, the storms also prevent the CVEs from being spotted, so we will try again tomorrow.

SE Fleet

Woodlark Island invaded. Umboi Island falls. Umboi will soon host mines and a mini sub to help close this choke point to subs.

Paras assault Terapo, but not enough of the unit arrives, resulting in a 1:2 attack, casualties 23(0) vs nil. We will keep flying in more and take the base. We noticed that CF was flying out forces here so we set a Zero LRCAP trap, which claims 3 C-47s. Nice.

14th Army

No change.

16th Army

We march on Darwin while the Wyndham invasion fleet enters safer waters north of Timor. Significant fuel has been moved from Balikpapan to support future operations out of the fast-developing Kendari hub.

25th Army

There is nothing more nerve wracking than watching the replay the day of a big Op. There is nothing more relaxing than watching that Op go off very well.

We have already detailed the unsuccessful sub attacks on our fleet on the way into the beaches. The ships arrive in time for the day phase and we await the inevitable air strikes... which never show up! Given that both the invasion forces and MKB were sighted and even lightly attacked yesterday Cribtop HQ is pleasantly dumbfounded by the empty skies over Kalidjati. Our LRCAP Zeros circle lazily for an enemy that doesn't arrive.

The Japanese air forces, however, are very active. We attack Batavia, Madioen and Bandoeng, damaging several planes on the ground. No CAP again today. These airfields are getting pretty worse for the wear by now. MKB does not attack today in order to keep our fighter pilots fresh.

Then the invasion itself begins. The only defenders consist of a small base force with nominal guns that accomplish no hits. Losses via accident amount to 536 casualties. The vast majority of our troops are ashore with only support squads and supply to unload tomorrow. Two base forces fully unload, allowing us to fly in a 42 plane Oscar Sentai tomorrow. How is that possible? Because 2nd Raiding Regiment paradrops on Kalidjati and takes the base with 3:1 odds vs level 1 forts. The enemy base force retreats with casualties of 236(24) vs nil. Better yet, 24(!) enemy aircraft are destroyed on the ground. Banzai!

At the end of the day, Kalidjati is in our hands and we will have land based fighters protecting the TFs. Analysis of enemy bases shows only 33 bombers left on Java, of which only 5 are located in Western Java bases. It is safe to say the fate of Java is sealed today. We are not bragging, but are pleased the plan went well. It's just the Dutch, but it's valuable practice for Phase 2.

We also bomb Medan's airfield from Kuala Lumpur with so-so results.

15th Army

We bomb the enemy troops at Akyab while flying in more troops and supplies.

China

Thanks to all the readers for the excellent comments. I confess this whole opportunity has developed rather on the fly, so it represents quite a change in plans for me. I have decided to remain aggressive in this AO and am digesting everything y'all are providing.

DA Pakhoi drops forts to 0 while obtaining 1:1 odds. Casualties 261(2) vs 367(0).

1 of 5 LCUs formerly posted 1 hex west of Wuchang has pulled back, increasing the likelihood this is a feint.

One sour note today. 10th Division has moved into the Sian hex and we are ready to attack, but supplies are in the red. We either attack with low supplies or risk having 32 LCUs slip through our fingers. Any chance supply will increase before the attack phase? If not, should we DA anyway? Big decision here. CF may be in move mode, but maybe not. Thoughts very welcome.

Other

Vava'u makes level 1 airfield, reinforcing Cribtop Intel's suspicions that CF plans to use this base as a convoy stopover. Chittagong makes level 2 airfield. An ominous development as we head towards the inevitable air war in Burma.

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 8/5/2011 10:33:26 PM >

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 441
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/5/2011 10:45:14 PM   
FeurerKrieg


Posts: 3397
Joined: 6/15/2005
From: Denver, CO
Status: offline 		I'd go for the attack, unless you have calculated the number of days it will take those Chinese units to exit. If the supplies don't increase, and the odds come off bad, it will only take 2-3 days to recover anyway I would expect.

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Upper portion used with permission of www.subart.net, copyright John Meeks

(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 442
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/5/2011 10:54:19 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Thanks, FK. That is my lean as well. He has been marching for 2 days over a good road. I pushed the attack 1 day to get the extra div in the hex, but may be out of time now. Worst case we get a 1:2, probably not too awful to recover from.

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(in reply to FeurerKrieg)
Post #: 443
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/5/2011 11:39:29 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline 		You might supplement your advance by using Topsy transport if they are not being used somewhere else.

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(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 444
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/6/2011 3:50:24 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		The next turn is away. Fingers crossed on Sian.

Sqz, I did a little poking around the map, and the bases accessible via Burma are indeed economic powerhouses. We may have to press on that route after all. We will soon have base forces in the Mandalay area and can at least recon. I definitely want to secure Lanchow as well. Forces in the south are marshalling for a demonstration at Pingsiang. Still got some thinking to do and some recon to perform, but a plan is beginning to take shape in China.

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(in reply to ny59giants)
Post #: 445
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/6/2011 4:02:39 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Screenshot on the situation in North China





Comments:

- Note 32 LCU army with movement arrow out of Sian. Flank guard KMT infantry corps is also in retreat.

- It may not look it yet, but we have given orders in the Yenan front to go "non-linear." We will assemble what combat power we have and get to work as Cribtop HQ judges that the enemy here must be starving by now.

- Paotow is a funny little story I haven't had time to detail in the AAR. CF moved in a corps to try to pull a "Loyang style" hexside rescue. We turned the tables by marching a Mongolian cav unit behind his unit and entering via the same (NW) hexside. Thus the rescuers are now as trapped as the rescuees.

- Ankang has 5 enemy LCUs, one of which got beat up near Nanyang. Ichang has 8 LCUs.

- We have a reserve division in Nanyang.

- In a few days we will have 2 Oscar Sentai and a crack Tojo Chutai ready to sweep the AVG. However, the Ami flyboys will probably have to abandon Sian by then (knocks on wood).

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 8/6/2011 4:07:28 AM >

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(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 446
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/6/2011 4:09:53 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Screenshot on the Situation in South China




Comments:

- Because we opportunistically poured most reinforcements into the Sian breach, we have a lot less to play with down South. The situation is thus far less developed than Cribtop HQ would like.

- We have 3 LCUs cleaning up Pakhoi.

- Until Pakhoi is finished, or until we reinforce, we don't have the combat power at Canton to do much other than perhaps take Wuchow.

- Most southern bases are lightly held by the enemy. Minor concentrations include Kukong with 7 LCUs, Kanshien with 11, Changsha with 8, and a total of 5 LCUs in the hexes west of Wuchang.

- The major quartet of Japanese bases near Hankow and the forest hex across the river from Ichang are strongly held and strongly fortified.

- We are gathering an army at Pucheng of approximately 1000 AV. Current thought is to take Pingsiang, which is unoccupied. Other options include shifting them to Canton and going for the south China bases up toward Kweilin.


Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 8/6/2011 4:17:12 AM >

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(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 447
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/6/2011 6:16:28 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Quick hit before a full update. Sian attack goes very well. The base is hanging by a thread and we are considering a second attack tomorrow to try for the brass ring. We have supply but DIS is a bit high.

STILL no attacks by the Dutch airforce at Kalidjati. Very odd. I know they'd probably be immolated, but if he isn't going to try to hit the invasion TF, when is CF planning to use them?

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(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 448
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/6/2011 9:52:38 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		March 25, 1942

The enemy front at Sian is nearly cracked today.

Subs

Gar duds on an AMC hunting near Johnston Island. A Pete from MKB attacks a Dutch sub in the Java Sea. We count ourselves lucky that no attacks are made against our TFs unloading at Kalidjati.

4th Fleet

The Raiders attack the port at Canton, but no hits on the 1 ship still at anchor. The only victory today is shooting down a Catalina on nav search. We will retire to Truk rather than press our luck any further. This first cruise was an experiment, and we grade it a B. Not a lot of damage, but had we run into a juicier convoy it could have paid big dividends. Hopefully it alters the enemy's thinking on convoy routes and escorts. We'll rest a few weeks and try again.

The 24th Air Flotilla HQ begins unloading at TB. This base is now "hot."

SE Fleet

We invade the Russell Islands while capturing Woodlark Island. We again intercept C-47s over Terapo. Also at Terapo, we fly in more of the para unit. Tulagi makes level 3 forts.

14th Army

A garrison unit arrives at Manila, freeing combat troops for the final push on Clark, scheduled to begin in April.

16th Army

Marching on Darwin.

25th Army

We again bomb a slew of airfields. Armor that moved off the beaches yesterday arrives in the Bandoeng hex, effectively preventing any last minute rail moves by the enemy and cutting Java in two. The infantry will follow on to take the base soon. Unloading proceeds uninterrupted and should be finished tomorrow. Again, the Dutch planes fail to attack our shipping. This is beyond perplexing to us, but we will take it. Why wouldn't CF at least try to attack?

On Sumatra, Lahat falls.

15th Army

We have a base force at Magwe now and will commence recon of the Chinese frontier as Cribtop HQ begins consideration of Operation Red Dragon - the encirclement and reduction of China from the north, SE and SW.

China

DA Sian misses a 2:1 by 40 adjusted AV. Not bad considering low supply levels! Forts are dropped to 1 and enemy adjusted AV is plummeting (down from 3200 to 2100). Casualties are lopsided in our favor, 15309(642) vs 6723(45) with 1 enemy LCU destroyed. The one sour note is that a small tank regiment draws the lot as first LCU and is thus destroyed as well. Annoying bit of the ground algorithm, that. After the attacks, DIS is in the 40s for our units, but supply is back in the white. The enemy must be hurting as well. We are strongly leaning toward a 2nd consecutive day of attacks in hopes of knocking out the last fort level and taking the base. IF the Chinese troops had movement reset to 0 miles, however, there is no rush. Does anyone know whether the movement reset is automatic or up to a die roll?




< Message edited by Cribtop -- 8/6/2011 9:58:27 PM >

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(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 449
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 8/6/2011 10:24:09 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline 		From my experience they will continue to move in the direction he wants, even with bad combat results. I would send every bomber you have to ground attack Sian and attack again. Come in at 6k to 8k.

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(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 450
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