Q-Ball
Posts: 7336
Joined: 6/25/2002 From: Chicago, Illinois Status: offline
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I think it could have been successful in 1942, but ONLY by diverting Luftwaffe strength from Russia, which the Germans were not willing to do. Luftwaffe control was absolutely vital, because the Regia Marina on it's own was not up to protecting the invasion convoys. I think the Axis would have found the fuel for this operation and put the Regia Marina to sea, but it's performance to date had been uninspiring, and clearly they needed air support. Several hundred German bombers based on Sicily would probably have kept the RN at bay, or made it costly to intervene. Amphib landings are very tricky and complicated, I don't have alot of confidence that the Italian Army could have pulled it off; soldiers were brave enough, the logistics and staff work was terrible. The FOLGORE division was a good one, but the heavy-lifting would have been done by the Infantry Invasion. Then again, the garrison wasn't very large or strong. Overall, I think it would have fallen, but it would have required large Luftwaffe Support, probably resulted in alot of dead paratroopers; the Italian sea invasion would have been a mess, but probably prevailed due to numbers and air support eventually. It would have been quite costly for the Axis.
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