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Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited

 
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Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/18/2011 2:51:43 PM   
Mike Solli


Posts: 15792
Joined: 10/18/2000
From: the flight deck of the Zuikaku
Status: offline 		Been thinking about aircraft and engine factories recently. I have read several times that the optimum factory size is 30. I submit that it is 44, based on the formula for production.

Here's the formula for production (I'll use airframes, but it's identical for engines as well):

(Number of aircraft factories + random number between 1 and 30) / 30 = Daily production (Any fractions are rounded down.)

The key is the "random number between 1 and 30". That random number will average 15.5, rounded down to 15.

Lets say the factory size is 30. Add the average random factor of 15 and you get 45. Divide by 30 and you get 1.5 - rounded down to 1.

The odds of getting a random number of 30 (the only chance of getting 2 aircraft produced) is once in a month. So you'll average 31 aircraft per month.

Should the factory size be 44, the random number needed to achieve that magic 60 is 16, which is a 50% chance each day. In a 30 day month that should happen 15 days and your production will be 59 for a size 44 factory.

Of course, all this assumes you really want to produce 59 of said aircraft or engines. But, even if you don't, you can always shut the factory off.

Gentlemen, I submit that we are overbuilding our factories.

Thoughts?

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/18/2011 2:55:50 PM   
PaxMondo


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Status: offline 		Michael recently stated 30 ...  read up in the tech forum ... think it is the beta thread about 2 weeks back.

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/18/2011 2:56:40 PM   
Mike Solli


Posts: 15792
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From: the flight deck of the Zuikaku
Status: offline 		Interesting. Gotta find that. Thanks.

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/18/2011 3:24:56 PM   
erstad

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli


Should the factory size be 44, the random number needed to achieve that magic 60 is 16, which is a 50% chance each day. In a 30 day month that should happen 15 days and your production will be 59 for a size 44 factory.



Not following this.

Half the days you produce 1 (random < 16)
Half the days you produce 2 (random >= 16)

Expected value/day is 1*(15/30) + 2*(15/30) = 1.5; or 45/month (for a 30 day month)

[This assumes the documentation is correct and the random is 1 to 30; to make stuff come out "right" at the monthly rate it would have to be 0 to 29. But that's only the difference of 1 plane a month. ]



< Message edited by erstad -- 10/18/2011 3:28:39 PM >

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/18/2011 3:47:51 PM   
Mike Solli


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Status: offline 		That's it erstad. And yes, assuming the manual is accurate.

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/18/2011 5:11:48 PM   
Dan Nichols


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quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Michael recently stated 30 ...  read up in the tech forum ... think it is the beta thread about 2 weeks back.


I think this refers to R&D, Mike is discussing production.

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/19/2011 6:19:28 PM   
1EyedJacks


Posts: 2244
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Status: offline 		You realize there is a leap year in 1944...

TTFN,

Mike

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/19/2011 10:25:34 PM   
PaxMondo


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Dan Nichols


quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Michael recently stated 30 ...  read up in the tech forum ... think it is the beta thread about 2 weeks back.


I think this refers to R&D, Mike is discussing production.

Dooh!!! Yes, Sorry!!!

Mike, I thought you were referring to R&D. Ignore my comment if this pertains only to production. SORRY!!!

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/19/2011 10:27:06 PM   
Mike Solli


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Status: offline 		Yup, it's production Pax. Sorry, I wasn't clear.

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/19/2011 10:30:57 PM   
PaxMondo


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Status: offline 		Nah, it's me not reading more carefully ...

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/19/2011 10:31:37 PM   
Mike Solli


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From: the flight deck of the Zuikaku
Status: offline 		Well, what do you think?

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/19/2011 10:52:52 PM   
PaxMondo


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Status: offline 		Your math is sound. If the formula's stated are correct ...

some saves of some games that have gone deep would assuredly have sufficient data to prove it out one way or the other. You may have enough data from your last game to show ...


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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/19/2011 10:54:19 PM   
Mike Solli


Posts: 15792
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From: the flight deck of the Zuikaku
Status: offline 		Unfortunately, my last game is gone with the dead computer. My opponent may have a save though....

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/20/2011 2:27:20 AM   
Shark7


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Status: offline 		Of course when you need 200+ engines per month, best off just to make the factories end up to 200+ combined. I'd rather over-produce (and store in the pool) than under-produce and regret it in 1944.

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/20/2011 3:22:38 AM   
Mac Linehan

 

Posts: 1484
Joined: 12/19/2004
From: Denver Colorado
Status: offline 		Mike -

Just a quick note. Your post is very thought provoking. It required several readings and some reflection to get the point. Then, as I sat with Tracker open, Bingo. My projected need for the Ha-35 is set to match airframe requirements - in this case 236 Ha-35 to 236 airframes (potentially) built per month - with some already in the pool. However, while familiar with the the formula, your post reminded me that there is a randomness in production, therefore I will (modestly) overproduce to allow for this variation. Perhaps, then, instead of just one large factory, it might be a better investment (less wasteful?) to build multiple factories that are each 44 devices in size. I hope that I am on track with this.

OK - My sincere appreciation for your excellent class instruction; it is wonderful to have you back.

My thanks also, to the rest of the contributers - your thoughts on this matter are well worth reading.

Thank You, Gents -

Mac

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/20/2011 3:26:26 AM   
DivePac88


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Should the factory size be 44, the random number needed to achieve that magic 60 is 16, which is a 50% chance each day. In a 30 day month that should happen 15 days and your production will be 59 for a size 44 factory.

Thoughts?


Works for me in theory, so I'll give it a go in my PBEM games.

Also looking at your numbers Mike, there could be the possibility that this system will optimize the HI use.


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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/20/2011 3:28:40 AM   
Mac Linehan

 

Posts: 1484
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quote:

ORIGINAL: DivePac88


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Should the factory size be 44, the random number needed to achieve that magic 60 is 16, which is a 50% chance each day. In a 30 day month that should happen 15 days and your production will be 59 for a size 44 factory.

Thoughts?


Works for me in theory, so I'll give it a go in my PBEM games.

Also looking at your numbers Mike, there could be the possibility that this system will optimize the HI use.



DivePac88 -

My line of thought also.

Mac

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/20/2011 3:33:29 AM   
Mike Solli


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From: the flight deck of the Zuikaku
Status: offline 		How so? The optimizing HI isn't clicking with me.

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/20/2011 3:53:28 AM   
Mac Linehan

 

Posts: 1484
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

How so? The optimizing HI isn't clicking with me.


Mike -

I may be off track. Your formula (44 devices) in multiple factories seems to offer a higher chance of getting optimum production - as you pointed out. If this is the case, the percentage of Heavy Industry that is "wasted" i.e. - used, but no go, due to a lesser percentile chance in a size 30 factory - would be reduced.

At least this is my take, If I am missing the picture, please let me know.

Mac

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/20/2011 4:04:48 AM   
DivePac88


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From: Somewhere in the South Pacific.
Status: offline 		Well my why of thinking is; say this is a 1E aircraft factory, so it costs 1 engine, and 18 HI points to produce each airframe. So if you are averaging 31 aircraft from a 30 aircraft factory, you are getting one aircraft HI free. But if you are averaging 47 aircraft from a 44 aircraft factory, you are getting three extra aircraft for the cost of engines only. As it is my understanding that an aircraft factory can only use HI up to it's airframe capacity. But I could be wrong, as that has happen before.

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/20/2011 4:14:28 AM   
Dan Nichols


Posts: 863
Joined: 8/30/2011
Status: offline 		In Mikes OP, this line is false.

"Should the factory size be 44, the random number needed to achieve that magic 60 is 16, which is a 50% chance each day. In a 30 day month that should happen 15 days and your production will be 59 for a size 44 factory. "

You will be 2 aircraft for 14 days and 1 aircraft for 16 days.  ( 2 x 14 ) + ( 1 x 16 ) = 28 + 16 = 44 aircraft per 30 days.   believe erstad also pointed this out.


< Message edited by Dan Nichols -- 10/20/2011 4:16:31 AM >

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/20/2011 4:18:14 AM   
Mike Solli


Posts: 15792
Joined: 10/18/2000
From: the flight deck of the Zuikaku
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Dan Nichols

In Mikes OP, this line is false.

"Should the factory size be 44, the random number needed to achieve that magic 60 is 16, which is a 50% chance each day. In a 30 day month that should happen 15 days and your production will be 59 for a size 44 factory. "

You will be 2 aircraft for 14 days and 1 aircraft for 16 days.  ( 2 x 14 ) + ( 1 x 16 ) = 28 + 16 = 44 aircraft per 30 days.   believe erstad also pointed this out.



You're right! See, it pays to talk about this stuff. Let's just scratch this thread and move on.

Edit: I didn't realize it the way erstad said it.


< Message edited by Mike Solli -- 10/20/2011 4:19:54 AM >

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/20/2011 4:32:28 AM   
n01487477


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Status: offline 		Wait a sec guys ... those saying you'll get free aircraft regarding HI are just dreaming ... HI is only used when a plane is produced. It is not used if you don't produce & has nothing to do with the factory size or daily randomness.

What you produce is what it costs.
1 x 1e aircraft produced = 18 + 18(the engine) = 36 HI.
1 x 2e aircraft produced = 36 + 36(2 engines) = 72 HI.

The rest of the thread was an interesting read and kudos to Mike for always trying something a little different.

Cheers

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/20/2011 4:52:22 AM   
Mac Linehan

 

Posts: 1484
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From: Denver Colorado
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quote:

ORIGINAL: n01487477

Wait a sec guys ... those saying you'll get free aircraft regarding HI are just dreaming ... HI is only used when a plane is produced. It is not used if you don't produce & has nothing to do with the factory size or daily randomness.

What you produce is what it costs.
1 x 1e aircraft produced = 18 + 18(the engine) = 36 HI.
1 x 2e aircraft produced = 36 + 36(2 engines) = 72 HI.

The rest of the thread was an interesting read and kudos to Mike for always trying something a little different.

Cheers


n01487477 -

Thank You for the correction.

Edit: - I reread what erstad posted - my mistake, Gents, I stand corrected.

Still very much appreciate the discussion, and have learned much.

Mac

< Message edited by Mac Linehan -- 10/20/2011 5:04:59 AM >

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/20/2011 3:47:47 PM   
crsutton


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Status: offline 		I am an Allied player. This sort of talk makes my head hurt.....

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/20/2011 4:56:28 PM   
bk19@mweb.co.za

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

I am an Allied player. This sort of talk makes my head hurt.....


Better play a few games as Japanese then, get a softer head and it won't hurt as much :)

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/20/2011 6:09:14 PM   
DivePac88


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quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

I am an Allied player. This sort of talk makes my head hurt.....


Don't worry mate, my head hurts too, and on top of that I was wrong (and have been wrong for a while). But that's the thing about old men and their misconceptions; they are hard to get rid-of.




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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/20/2011 6:10:45 PM   
Mike Solli


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Status: offline 		Hell, I started this infernal thread and I was wrong.

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/21/2011 9:51:21 PM   
PaxMondo


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Status: offline 		Yeah, but you got us to actually think about it. I went and built up a sheet to calc everything to be sure.

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RE: Aircraft and Engine Factories Revisited - 10/21/2011 9:58:48 PM   
Mike Solli


Posts: 15792
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From: the flight deck of the Zuikaku
Status: offline 		I did the same thing a while back. Plug in the production for the aircraft and engines and it'll tell you how many engines you're short or building in surplus. Makes things relatively simple.

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