Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: troop76

Can't say I'm fond of the argument that 'the US has lots of BPs so lets buy STRs'.

Yes the US DOES have a lot of BP, they also will have a two front war to fight and two allies to potentially prop up with LL.
Secondly as the CW is in a lot of trouble and Germany isn't embroiled in Russia you don't have the luxury to sit back and bomb him to death, you need boots on the ground saving CW ass. (imho)
How has CW production been?
If the US has to go Europe heavy straight off, I'd think you'd want lotsa FTR, ARM, TAC, INF/MOT..then you need NAV to protect convoys, Convoys themselves, and keep up your ship building program including AMPH and TRS...in terms of priorities I think STR is way down on the list. Though keep in mind that's more specifically for a CW first strategy by the Axis.

With 40-50 BPs US might have a turn, after say 4-5 are going off to FF and CW, I can find plenty of things to build before I get to STR...:P

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

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Edit: I also happen to disagree with the objection to Strat Bomber production, though it is purely a choice of playing style. Every Production Point that gets bombed out of existence early on has that much more effect over the course of a game. The CW was doing very well with limited bombers, until it lost 2 of its best in a single disastrous raid (very lucky German die rolls).

quote:

ORIGINAL: troop76

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

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Edit: I also happen to disagree with the objection to Strat Bomber production, though it is purely a choice of playing style. Every Production Point that gets bombed out of existence early on has that much more effect over the course of a game. The CW was doing very well with limited bombers, until it lost 2 of its best in a single disastrous raid (very lucky German die rolls).

I definately agree that using CW bombers for Strat Bombing especially early in the game is very helpful. Our difference in opinion is how to utilize US production best when Germany is following a CW First strategy..I believe that in that environment US STR's are a luxury. (plus the cost to US entry by picking the option!). Again if Germany was in Russia then bombs away, but when Italy and Germany (and possibly Japan) are all squeezing the CW you have to relieve that pressure first and bomb second (or third..:)).

How bad has the war in the atlantic been for CW production btw?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Okay, I've cut and pasted together the notes I took from each of the turns, to show what US Entry Options were chosen, when they were picked, and what happened with the die rolls.

The abbreviations should be pretty obvious:
USE-10 = US Entry roll was a '10'

Also, the number in brackets is the actual number used by the program. For example:
(1 chit moved, 3 of 6 [2]) means that the program picks a number, with the options being anything from 0 to 5, and gets a '2'. That is the 3rd chit of 6 chits.

Likewise, the number in parentheses after a chit draw is the random number generated to determine the value of the chit. I keep track of this, rather than the actual value, in my testing.

Initial Chits
2 x Ge/It (2588, 2912)
1 x Ja (327)

S/O '39
USA draws 1 chit to the Ja Entry Pool (2541)
USA selects Resources to Western Allies; USE-10 (no chits moved) and Occupy Greenland and Iceland; USE-9 (1 chit moved, 3 of 6 [2]) Ge/It
USA selects Resources to China; USE-8 (no chits moved) and Chinese Build Aircraft; USE-9 (no chits moved) Ja

Ge/It Entry: 30
Ge/It Tension: 6
Japan Entry: 22
Japan Tension: 2

N/D '39
USA draws 1 chit to the Ja Entry Pool (548)
USA selects Relocate Fleet to Pearl Harbor; USE-3 (1 chit moved, 5 of 5 [4]) Ja
USA selects Resources to USSR; USE-10 (no chits moved) and Lend Lease to Western Allies; USE-4 (1 chit moved, 4 of 5 [3])

Ge/It Entry: 25
Ge/It Tension: 14
Japan Entry: 22
Japan Tension: 10

quote:

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Okay, I've cut and pasted together the notes I took from each of the turns, to show what US Entry Options were chosen, when they were picked, and what happened with the die rolls.

The abbreviations should be pretty obvious:
USE-10 = US Entry roll was a '10'

Also, the number in brackets is the actual number used by the program. For example:
(1 chit moved, 3 of 6 [2]) means that the program picks a number, with the options being anything from 0 to 5, and gets a '2'. That is the 3rd chit of 6 chits.

Likewise, the number in parentheses after a chit draw is the random number generated to determine the value of the chit. I keep track of this, rather than the actual value, in my testing.

Initial Chits
2 x Ge/It (2588, 2912)
1 x Ja (327)

S/O '39
USA draws 1 chit to the Ja Entry Pool (2541)
USA selects Resources to Western Allies; USE-10 (no chits moved) and Occupy Greenland and Iceland; USE-9 (1 chit moved, 3 of 6 [2]) Ge/It
USA selects Resources to China; USE-8 (no chits moved) and Chinese Build Aircraft; USE-9 (no chits moved) Ja

Ge/It Entry: 30
Ge/It Tension: 6
Japan Entry: 22
Japan Tension: 2

N/D '39
USA draws 1 chit to the Ja Entry Pool (548)
USA selects Relocate Fleet to Pearl Harbor; USE-3 (1 chit moved, 5 of 5 [4]) Ja
USA selects Resources to USSR; USE-10 (no chits moved) and Lend Lease to Western Allies; USE-4 (1 chit moved, 4 of 5 [3])

Ge/It Entry: 25
Ge/It Tension: 14
Japan Entry: 22
Japan Tension: 10

Those are spectacularly high entry levels for 1939. Do you have a record of the chit values?

quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

those USE numbers are just plain wacked and I suspect a bug. if it's not a bug, then this is a very bad example of what happens with making an infinite pool of chits, rather than the cardboard game system of restricting the # of 0 and 5 chits the USA can have, or this in case obviously all those 4 value chits, of which there are very few in the cardboard pool until 1941, and they stand good chances of ending up in the USSR/German border neutrality pact pools. I know it was all statistically analyzed ahead of time, but this will remain a possibility in any game, with a flip side of all those 4 value chits listed above being 0 values instead and the USA not passing 1st gear-up until 1942. not limiting the chits puts big spikes in the possibilities, rather than smoothed out curves, and this game is one of those spikes.

If I was the Axis in this game, I would probably consider resigning if the Americans passed War Appropriations in 1940. If I was the Allies, I would graciously accept.

    1939:                  // Average = 7040/3017 = 2.333444
    begin
      case RollX(MessStr, 0, TEntryChitRoll.HighRoll, nil, nil,
                             TEntryChitRoll.RollRange) of
        0..49: Result := 0;       // 50

        50..959: Result := 1;     // 910

        960..1710: Result := 2;   // 751

        1711..2346: Result := 3;  // 636

        2347..2976: Result := 4;  // 630

        else Result := 5;         // 40
      end;
    end;

    1940:                  // Average = 653/365 = 1.789041
    begin
      case RollX(MessStr, 0, TEntryChitRoll.HighRoll, nil, nil,
                             TEntryChitRoll.RollRange) of
        0..9: Result := 0;       // 10

        10..200: Result := 1;    // 191

        201..267: Result := 2;   // 67

        268..329: Result := 3;   // 62

        330..362: Result := 4;   // 33

        else Result := 5;        // 2
      end;
    end;

quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

oh and I dug out some reference files and discovered there are only 6 "4" value chits in the 1939 pool, and none in 1940. in this game by J/F 1940 8 of these chits exist just in the USE pools...

quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

those USE numbers are just plain wacked and I suspect a bug. if it's not a bug, then this is a very bad example of what happens with making an infinite pool of chits, rather than the cardboard game system of restricting the # of 0 and 5 chits the USA can have, or this in case obviously all those 4 value chits, of which there are very few in the cardboard pool until 1941, and they stand good chances of ending up in the USSR/German border neutrality pact pools. I know it was all statistically analyzed ahead of time, but this will remain a possibility in any game, with a flip side of all those 4 value chits listed above being 0 values instead and the USA not passing 1st gear-up until 1942. not limiting the chits puts big spikes in the possibilities, rather than smoothed out curves, and this game is one of those spikes.

If I was the Axis in this game, I would probably consider resigning if the Americans passed War Appropriations in 1940. If I was the Allies, I would graciously accept.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

those USE numbers are just plain wacked and I suspect a bug. if it's not a bug, then this is a very bad example of what happens with making an infinite pool of chits, rather than the cardboard game system of restricting the # of 0 and 5 chits the USA can have, or this in case obviously all those 4 value chits, of which there are very few in the cardboard pool until 1941, and they stand good chances of ending up in the USSR/German border neutrality pact pools. I know it was all statistically analyzed ahead of time, but this will remain a possibility in any game, with a flip side of all those 4 value chits listed above being 0 values instead and the USA not passing 1st gear-up until 1942. not limiting the chits puts big spikes in the possibilities, rather than smoothed out curves, and this game is one of those spikes.

If I was the Axis in this game, I would probably consider resigning if the Americans passed War Appropriations in 1940. If I was the Allies, I would graciously accept.

The code looks good, given the random numbers Aaron reports.

    1939:                  // Average = 7040/3017 = 2.333444
    begin
      case RollX(MessStr, 0, TEntryChitRoll.HighRoll, nil, nil,
                             TEntryChitRoll.RollRange) of
        0..49: Result := 0;       // 50

        50..959: Result := 1;     // 910

        960..1710: Result := 2;   // 751

        1711..2346: Result := 3;  // 636

        2347..2976: Result := 4;  // 630

        else Result := 5;         // 40
      end;
    end;

    1940:                  // Average = 653/365 = 1.789041
    begin
      case RollX(MessStr, 0, TEntryChitRoll.HighRoll, nil, nil,
                             TEntryChitRoll.RollRange) of
        0..9: Result := 0;       // 10

        10..200: Result := 1;    // 191

        201..267: Result := 2;   // 67

        268..329: Result := 3;   // 62

        330..362: Result := 4;   // 33

        else Result := 5;        // 2
      end;
    end;

The 1939 average is high: 35/11 = 3.182 versus the expected 2.333.
The 1940 average (small sample) is fine: 6/3 = 2.000 versus the expected 1.789.

As you can see from the code, drawing 0 or 5 values is quite difficult.

quote:

Edit: Also looking at the actions I'd say you have some pretty aggressive Axis play in 1939. We all know the average pool value is much higher in 1939 than in 1940 and an Axis side that is over-aggressive is going to see higher US entry than if he waits until 1940. There is an element of that in these figures too.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

Personally, I think that choosing ANY US entry option shouldn't be done in this situation. Tension levels are so high, that at this moment it is very important not to increase this level at all, since if it is going over 40, you are in trouble. This is especially true, because of the Axis play until now. There aren't a lot of Axis action left which might increase entry levels, apart from a capture of Gibraltar and the DoW on the USSR by the Euroaxis. The Balkans are sorted out by the Axis, and alignment of minors after DoW'ing the USSR doesn't bring a lot of entry (since the die roll is only 3...).
So it might be a good idea to surrender China, if China isn't able to put up a good fight anymore. However: don't do this in 1940! Wait until 1941 (higher US entry chits). If China still has a good punch in them, don't surrender... How many Chinese cities aren't controlled by Japan at this moment (since there isn't an entry hit for cities surrendered by China...)? This should be taken into account when making this decision. It might be possible to clear non essential cities from Chinese troops and withdraw without a fight, thus speeding US entry...  Regarding Gib, I might be tempted to empty the hex in 1941. However: there is one problem: the new home country of France is in Morocco, and there is no Free France (since France has been conquered).
This means that the CW can't have an Axis capture of Gibraltar, because then the German Panzer might roll into Morocco, conquering the French again. This part of the map should be defended as strongly as possible, without endangering the UK.
The UK however, is short of land units...
Building UK land units is top priority, together with not taking any US entry options, until entry levels are looking a lot better. Protecting UK convoys will become a problem, so I hope you've got a lot of CP's in production or unused for UK resource transportation, since you're going to need them.
Of course, in a two player game, as the Axis player, I would be very, very nervous, since the USA has finished all preparations for going to war, and is just waiting to do so. I only see the number of US entry chit's in the entry boxes and I don't know if there are only high numbers in them or those crappy once you've got in reality. As a US player, I would therefore sit back and not choose any US option, since doing so, I will give the Axis the impression, that I only have to wait one or two turns to declare war on them. Building a lot of land units (for compensation by the non building of UK land units) will strengthen this bluff. How long do I have to wait for a Japanese DoW on me? Probably not a long time, since the one thing the Japanese need is the surprise impulse the attack the fleet at Pearl.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

Of course, in a two player game, as the Axis player, I would be very, very nervous, since the USA has finished all preparations for going to war, and is just waiting to do so. I only see the number of US entry chit's in the entry boxes and I don't know if there are only high numbers in them or those crappy once you've got in reality.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

Regarding Gib, I might be tempted to empty the hex in 1941. However: there is one problem: the new home country of France is in Morocco, and there is no Free France (since France has been conquered).

This means that the CW can't have an Axis capture of Gibraltar, because then the German Panzer might roll into Morocco, conquering the French again. This part of the map should be defended as strongly as possible, without endangering the UK.
The UK however, is short of land units...

quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

So it might be a good idea to surrender China, if China isn't able to put up a good fight anymore. However: don't do this in 1940! Wait until 1941 (higher US entry chits). If China still has a good punch in them, don't surrender... How many Chinese cities aren't controlled by Japan at this moment (since there isn't an entry hit for cities surrendered by China...)? This should be taken into account when making this decision. It might be possible to clear non essential cities from Chinese troops and withdraw without a fight, thus speeding US entry... 

quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

I think surrendering China at this point would be a mistake.

quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

I well understand that one game does not a rule subsystem make. And I know this decision is water under the bridge, but as the years roll by it gets hard to recall what flowed under that bridge at times.

So it looks as if the bug I was thinking of was in my assumption that those were truly random results. Manipulating the numbers for testing purposes is a very good idea. If that sequence of US entry results came up randomly, it would be astronomically extra-ordinary I think, even with the Axis front loading the process with all the 1939 activity (good weather in Nov/Dec?)

And I think I do see a real bug in that there should not be a separate USE roll for the sequence of Italy DOW France, Italy DOW Greece, and then Germany DOW Greece. The rule is "once per neutral minor country".

I think changing to unlimited chits was a solution in search of a problem. A major part of the re-design of the game in the Final Edition was to eliminate critical luck, I believe I read that in the Designer's Notes. For that reason the game was changed from a d6 system to a d10 system. A further wrinkle was added in 2007, changing the values of the entry chits to reduce the high & low value chits in favor of more middle value chits. The unlimited chit system is a move in the opposite direction for the game. Let's say the US got truly lucky and drew all the "4" chits at once. The unlimited chit system magnifies that luck as the US always has the same chance of pulling more "4" chits, and could also magnify the bad luck of the US pulling all of the "1" chits. There will be more such games in MWIF than in the cardboard game, and may result in players increasing the significance of the USE system in their decisions, which is good strategy for this game actually. But there will also be a few more games where unusual USE results determine the winner perhaps more than the skill of equally matched players.



Thanks Red Prince for all the work and the game reports, etc. It is quite a game you have going, but a game to test what happens when the US passes War Appropriations on the 6th turn of the game is a bit less interesting, just as a game to see what happens if one side always rolls 20 in combats would be dull.

I would add that perhaps in China, I would guess that the Chinese could have benefitted from choosing the Blitz table to conserve units and trade away more space, of which they have a lot, for time. A concept it took me quite a few games of WiF to figure out. I wouldn't surrender them though, the US will be in the war shortly anyway as the 1941 chits come online, and you should just force the Japanese to dig out the last of the Chinese, who should be just fine over the winter now that they don't have anything left to defend in the North Monsoon zone. I would use some Intell points to help increase Partisan activity in China if I were the Allies; those supply lines on the new map get pretty long...

quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

I watched a game in the pre-2007 distribution of USE chits at the table next to me at WiFCon once. The US drew about 9 "0" or "1" chits in a row through 1940, and couldn't gear up for the first time until the end of 1941, with still a very long way to go on other entry options. Results like that can flow just from the one/turn USE draw, _regardless_ of player decisions. MWiF does use the latest chit distribution totals, so extreme results are still a bit less likely, but are more likely than in the limited chit system.

quote:

Yep, armchair WiF is fun, that's for sure.

Perhaps I still need to learn the DOW rules?

quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

I watched a game in the pre-2007 distribution of USE chits at the table next to me at WiFCon once. The US drew about 9 "0" or "1" chits in a row through 1940, and couldn't gear up for the first time until the end of 1941, with still a very long way to go on other entry options. Results like that can flow just from the one/turn USE draw, _regardless_ of player decisions. MWiF does use the latest chit distribution totals, so extreme results are still a bit less likely, but are more likely than in the limited chit system.

Yep, armchair WiF is fun, that's for sure.

Perhaps I still need to learn the DOW rules?