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RE: mistakes - 11/3/2011 5:35:39 PM

Bullwinkle58

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quote:

ORIGINAL: LoBaron

Even in case he is saving his exoerten for the late war fight and throws in low skill pilots as he can afford
it, he is producing allied experten at a rate GJ would never be able to achieve by training.

This is the mistake I was referring to, and its a grave one IMHO.

I'm not sure. As Nemo said, rader can pivot in three months to a high-trained mix if he needs to and is willing to pull back strike missions with nuggets.

Further, as he approaches kami time, low-skill pilots are still fine. I peeked at the AI's pilot pools in early 1945 and saw an average of about 25-30 EXP for most groups. Yet I was, and had been for a year since early-kami-activation, getting creamed by multi-engine kamis. Only about 10% got through, even with my CAP in Hellcats and Corsairs at 70-90 EXP, but one hit mission-kills an APA or AKA for several months. Two hits is a decent bet to lose the ship.

I think in a game where India is Japanese traditional notions of pilot quality must be re-examined.

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Post #: 3301

RE: mistakes - 11/3/2011 5:40:19 PM

Bullwinkle58

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think the quote belongs to Bullwinkle.

GJ, as for Java, be careful of starting a major campaign that involves large islands. Rader should be able to land a zillion reinforcements at the other end of Java and then eat your three or four or five divisions alive. It could be like Port Moresby on a massive scale, assuming he has a big reserve rather than all his units committed in SoPac and India.

But forcing him to invade strongly defended islands sounds like a good tactic, beginning with Dempasar, Bali, and those other islands east of Java.

I'm sure you'll think of this, but be sure to have maximum oilers available.

Nope, the quote wasn't me.

I'll echo CR's point on Java. Its rail network is supreme. It is a huge strategic asset to the defender, particularly when Batavia's massive port is deep behind the lines and can accept reenforcments. Not saying don't hit Java, but be aware that response times can be fast. Also, Makassar and Banderjamasin's air fields can really harass SE Java unloading ops.

Sumatra's internal transport network is very primitive relative to Java's. It's easier to localize an invasion there, especially in the north.

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Post #: 3302

RE: mistakes - 11/3/2011 6:46:31 PM

Cribtop

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I third CR's and Bullwinkle's points. If you're going to do this, hit the islands around Bali/Denpasar. Java itself plays into Rader's ground advantages. The key will be capturing enough bases before KB gets there. See PzB's AAR for a case study in how the IJN could respond, but also recognize that you have all your CVs and that, for now, KB is out of position. Keeping it out of position will be a key element in your planning. A sequential Op with one or more invasions way East of Java will likely be necessary. Fortunately, the Solomons campaign could provide you with just the opportunity you need for a convincing feint.

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Post #: 3303

RE: mistakes - 11/3/2011 8:21:05 PM

Schlemiel

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I do think Grey could possibly pull off the invasion of Java if he stops at the right spot. Like I said, Malang is excellent defensive terrain and sits on a rail intersection. Rader would have to go through roadless rough terrain and open terrain behind Grey's lines in order to circle him and a few divisions in that mountainous terrain could hold out quite nicely against quite a lot. Furthermore, that specific spot would require Rader to either end his strat move in open terrain (like Soerabaja at closest) or cross open terrain to use major roads. The only "safe" approach by land to Malang is the long yellow road into the rough hex or crossing the non-roaded rough area from the base west of Malang. Rader may well be hesistant to send a stack over open terrain with his concerns about ground bombardment (especially close to what might be mutually supportive airbases for you by then) and may fear getting flanked. I do believe such a beachhead could be defensible if you can capture Malang quickly enough. Pushing them out of Soerabaja can be valueable as well to remove the ability to unload there or rail there under forts to help with the bombing. That said, a campaign further east to open up islands can work too. I just feel that one specific spot in Java is much less vulnerable to the rail network and reinforcements than you let on if you can secure the bases east of Malang Even if he isolates Malang if you've build up your island bases enough you might be able to run supplies in by air and sea to keep your beachhead. It's a bold move, for sure, and carries some definite higher risks than slightly further east, but imo it's also more threatening to Rader, since he runs the risk of armor flanks along the north coast and bases on the south side like Tjilatjap that become harder to supply if you use the north coast to cut the rails. It gives you a chance at a firm foothold that won't have to be won later in the face of fierce opposition (like in Jzanes game) if you can caluculate and commit the troops and supplies to hold at that chokepoint.

That said, I'm much less experienced than the other voices here, so they may very well be right that the hammer is unstoppable even in a great defensive chokepoint. I just think with the likely 44 (and 44 upgraded) timeline it could be a great coup if you pull it off. 1200 av just might be able to hold off anything he could throw at it (across mostly open terrain) and risk an encirclement of his troops with your own armor later if he tries. To me Malang is absolutely key along with the offshore airbases if you are going to pull it off as planned though, and sequential invasions to the east may be a wiser idea as well. How much risk and how much reward do you want here? If you can open the gap and ultimately secure Soerabaja (don't overdefend it on the initial approach), it gives you a great staging base into the heart of his empire and forces him to do a lot of reaction.

(in reply to Cribtop)

Post #: 3304

RE: mistakes - 11/3/2011 10:22:34 PM

crsutton

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From: Maryland
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

GJ, in my game vs. Miller, by 1944 the Allies were invading strongly held Japanese bases. For instance, Ternate had 50k troops that had been digging in for three years. I think Manado, Morotai and Ambon also had in excess of 20k troops well dug in.

I found that the Allied invasion forces....

JeffK quoted me up above, but that actually wasn't me. The first clue is that the comment was both insightful and showed an in depth familiarity with the game that is way beyond me pay grade.

I think the quote belongs to Bullwinkle.

GJ, as for Java, be careful of starting a major campaign that involves large islands. Rader should be able to land a zillion reinforcements at the other end of Java and then eat your three or four or five divisions alive. It could be like Port Moresby on a massive scale, assuming he has a big reserve rather than all his units committed in SoPac and India.

But forcing him to invade strongly defended islands sounds like a good tactic, beginning with Dempasar, Bali, and those other islands east of Java.

I'm sure you'll think of this, but be sure to have maximum oilers available.

Yep, speaking from experience, avoid campaigns on large land masses until you have control of the sea. The Japanese army-reinforced by lots of China units is just too large. He cannot beat your 44 divisions and tanks but can win by just bogging you down. Only one realy thing you need is bases where you can bomb his oil. Plain and simple. Lots of those around for the grabbing. Really, the only major land campaign that I can think of is the PI. And even then my only purpose would be to secure airfields. And, evetually you are going to need at least one big port (Manila) near the Japanese mainland.

< Message edited by crsutton -- 11/3/2011 10:23:36 PM >

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Post #: 3305

RE: mistakes - 11/3/2011 10:46:52 PM

GreyJoy

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Ok folks, as always the depth and the details of your strategical suggestions amaze me!

First of all, about the "querelle" between Lo Baron and others... Rader started to lose masses and masses of planes during the late spring 1942, when the siege of Karachi first begun.
As you probably remember, during those days we were all amazed and astonished by the numbers of planes he was losing above Karachi...100/200 Tojos/Oscars/zeros every single turn...we were winning using different tactics (ambushes, different CAP levels, pilot rotations etc etc)...and our kill ratio was always between 2-1 and 3-1 in our favour...but it didn't matter...by the end of 1942 he had succesfully drained my pools (despite the entering into production of some brand new planes and despite the boost given me by the emergency reinforcements)...at the end i had to retire my air forces from Karachi and from India...so he won the air war...luckly we had gained enough time to be able to bring enough AVs to Karachi to keep it unconquerable...but, as we all know, we were close...
Rader more than once stated in his mails that his goal was to drain my pools to zero... he didn't care about the pilots...he care about the planes...he could easily trade 4 planes of his own for 1 of mine and still be winning... he knew that since the beginning and he tried to obtain this goal for more than one year of war...

So Rader's strategy sounds fine.

However i cannot but agree to certain degree with LoBaron... my average pilot quality has grown so high that i'm pretty sure to win every air fight fought on equal terms...the "British Flying Circus" for example...the 54th RAF Squadron now based at Tulagi...it's composed only by those who have an exp above 80 and with more than 15 kills...most of them have their exp in their 90s... in the last 4 months of fightings over Tulagi (and we know how harsh they were) they have lost ONLY 1 pilot...killing something like 180 enemy planes...impressive right?...for sure i used them only for local CAP...but still...
That doesn't change the fact that, as you said, even the best pilots die...i've lost several aces over Lae during the last raid of 3 weeks ago for example...on P-47s and on sweep....because we got overwhelmed... and even low quality pilots, if in good numbers, can bring to hell a couple of my aces...

So the conclusion is...i don't know if this strategy has worked for Rader... the only thing i know is that, since Jan 43, his pilots quality seems to have stabilized to a level that let him defend pretty well counting on numbers, forbiding me any easy walk in the park every time i have to make an air attack mission...

Considering he's now defending...sounds like he has did the right thing

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)

Post #: 3306

RE: mistakes - 11/3/2011 10:55:09 PM

GreyJoy

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Now about Java...

I'm still thinkering...everything you say seems logic to me...it sounds logic the fact that a land campaign is not my best option against his HORDES, as it sounds logic the fact that my goal must be to reach a location from where attack his oil fields and threaten his economy (doesn't matter much if he managed to transport his oil through China...we need to make some pressure on him so to unlock India statlemate)...as it sounds logic the statement about Madang and the terrain choice...
I need to bring a HUGE force with me but at the same time i need to keep the pressure on the open fronts (India and Solomons/NG)...
Need to have tanks there but i also need tanks to take the fortified islands around Rabaul...
Need oilers, tankers and supplies in incredible quantities but i have to keep on feeding my advancing armies in other theatres...

Cannot say i'm not confused...overwhelmed...

As many of you had suggested me long time ago after the 1st debacle of PM and the invasion of Tulagi...when everything seemed lost... i need to stop for a little while...empty my mind...and think...calculate...balance the hypotesis...

Luckly turns will flow slow till Sunday... i really need to stop and think now...

Many, many many thanks. Your ideas, suggestions and, above all, critics are helping so much in the decision process.

I owe a beer to every single of you

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Post #: 3307

RE: mistakes - 11/4/2011 2:56:41 AM

JeffroK

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

GJ, in my game vs. Miller, by 1944 the Allies were invading strongly held Japanese bases. For instance, Ternate had 50k troops that had been digging in for three years. I think Manado, Morotai and Ambon also had in excess of 20k troops well dug in.

I found that the Allied invasion forces....

JeffK quoted me up above, but that actually wasn't me. The first clue is that the comment was both insightful and showed an in depth familiarity with the game that is way beyond me pay grade.

I think the quote belongs to Bullwinkle.

GJ, as for Java, be careful of starting a major campaign that involves large islands. Rader should be able to land a zillion reinforcements at the other end of Java and then eat your three or four or five divisions alive. It could be like Port Moresby on a massive scale, assuming he has a big reserve rather than all his units committed in SoPac and India.

But forcing him to invade strongly defended islands sounds like a good tactic, beginning with Dempasar, Bali, and those other islands east of Java.

I'm sure you'll think of this, but be sure to have maximum oilers available.

Post 3280, typing in your sleep again!

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Post #: 3308

RE: November rain...of blood - 11/4/2011 3:13:29 PM

Zeta16

Posts: 1199
Joined: 11/20/2002
From: Columbus. Ohio
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zeta16

quote:

In this game, rader seemingly produces aircraft for the main purpose of "disposing" of pilots which would otherwise consume HI in the pilot pool. This HI savings allows him to build ever more aircraft, with a "wheat" injection of HI from India. If his low-grade pilots in his increasingly R&D-sophisticated aircraft kill Allied planes, great. GJ owns no Fur Farm; his aircraft are finite. If they don't, still good, since the incessant combat at good Allied loss ratios makes GJ think he's accomplishing something when in fact he is giving rader the one thing he can't manufacture--time.

Is this true, I have never heard this. I thought it was automatic HI withdraw, I mean some HI should be used the pilots need to learn something before getting into a plane.

It sounds like gaming the game engine, at this rate there is going to be more Japanese pilots than all the Allies had in the whole war.

Ah, you've discovered the wart on the Fur Farm Maneuver. The HI cost was added in a patch; it isn't in the manual. As far as I can tell from old threads (I don't play the Japanese) it only applies to pilots in the training pipeline, not those in the Reserves or Replacement Pools. Rader would need to use up both of those before he could stop the HI "tax" from kicking in. However, he can stock his front line, especially naval, units and protect them, then use up the pools. The code will send a half-trained pilot from the pipeline if it has no other choice.

Scenario 2 has a big ramp up in Japanese pilot numbers in the pipeline in 1943-45, from what I read in threads. Andy Mac protested in one thread that the HI tax was imposed after Scenario 2's pilot ramp-up was designed; it was not there at first shipment. Some Japanese players have said they think this patched-in provision makes Scenario 2 harder for the Japanese instead of easier as was the original design intention. The HI tax in later-war months can be huge if the player lets those pilots exist for the full year of training.

I'm not saying rader IS doing a Fur Farm. He might just be using India's largesse to make lots of planes, and doing a conventional training routine to try to get good pilots into them. But a Fur Farm would be a diobolical tactic. Gamey? Maybe. But making planes for the main purpose of losing them--on purpose--to take away pilots who would otherwise incur an HI tax would be a genius move IMO. As I said before, if they take out some Allied planes while destroying themselves and their tax liability, all the better, and thus also leaving observers congratulating GJ for his "attrition warfare" with digital egg on their faces.

I just figured it was an HI cost bulit into the game that you could not get rid of, even if you drain the pools of pilots they still need some training to fly planes, so it should not just wipe out the HI loss.

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Post #: 3309

RE: mistakes - 11/4/2011 3:16:39 PM

Zeta16

Posts: 1199
Joined: 11/20/2002
From: Columbus. Ohio
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: LoBaron

Even in case he is saving his exoerten for the late war fight and throws in low skill pilots as he can afford
it, he is producing allied experten at a rate GJ would never be able to achieve by training.

This is the mistake I was referring to, and its a grave one IMHO.

I'm not sure. As Nemo said, rader can pivot in three months to a high-trained mix if he needs to and is willing to pull back strike missions with nuggets.

Further, as he approaches kami time, low-skill pilots are still fine. I peeked at the AI's pilot pools in early 1945 and saw an average of about 25-30 EXP for most groups. Yet I was, and had been for a year since early-kami-activation, getting creamed by multi-engine kamis. Only about 10% got through, even with my CAP in Hellcats and Corsairs at 70-90 EXP, but one hit mission-kills an APA or AKA for several months. Two hits is a decent bet to lose the ship.

I think in a game where India is Japanese traditional notions of pilot quality must be re-examined.

He may have high xp guys left that he can use in groups, but the guys he trains in 3 months will have good skill but not so good xp. However, the Allies are starting to get a ton of guys high in both xp and skill. I don't think that Japan can over come that, but with the total unrealalistic research arc that Japan can do it may be possible. I mean it is a joke that 45 fighters and planes can be jumped that far in advance.

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Post #: 3310

RE: November rain...of blood - 11/4/2011 3:26:50 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Zeta16

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It's not for me to opine whether GJ is better than he used to be; opinions on that are clear in this AAR. The more interesting issues, for me, deal with Nemo's points vis a vis the national objectives a situation such as GJ's presents in a Scenario 2 game where India is in Japanese hands. In two major AARed games now--yours with QB and this one--we have seen that India can represent more than an attractive setting for auto-vic. If the Japanese player chooses he can treat India as an economic engine. If he chooses to pay the garrison price he can source HI from there which exponentially increases his force mix elsewhere.

In this game, rader seemingly produces aircraft for the main purpose of "disposing" of pilots which would otherwise consume HI in the pilot pool. This HI savings allows him to build ever more aircraft, with a "wheat" injection of HI from India. If his low-grade pilots in his increasingly R&D-sophisticated aircraft kill Allied planes, great. GJ owns no Fur Farm; his aircraft are finite. If they don't, still good, since the incessant combat at good Allied loss ratios makes GJ think he's accomplishing something when in fact he is giving rader the one thing he can't manufacture--time.

Is this true, I have never heard this. I thought it was automatic HI withdraw, I mean some HI should be used the pilots need to learn something before getting into a plane.

It sounds like gaming the game engine, at this rate there is going to be more Japanese pilots than all the Allies had in the whole war.

Oops, in my post yesteday I pointed to the wrong thing. Here is the actual post that was incorrectly attributed to me. I didn't type that text at the top - that came from Bullwinkle. You can tell because it's eloquent. It really doesn't matter, but I just didn't want to get credit for typing something that somebody else typed.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 11/4/2011 3:28:32 PM >

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Post #: 3311

RE: November rain...of blood - 11/4/2011 3:42:43 PM

GreyJoy

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Joined: 3/18/2011
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Seriously guys...i'm not getting the whole jap-pilot/HI cost you're talking about... i mean...i understand the general sense (Rader maybe is able to by-pass the HI cost of draining thousands of pilots into war) but i'm not even trying to understand the complex procedure...Jap economy remains a black mistery to me!

FWIW i'm not sitting on my thumbs....spending hours trying to elaborate a plan...now in the process of calculating how many ships do i need for the Java adventure and how many will be needed to keep the SOPAC/SWPAC fronts active and fighting...going crazy with sheets, calculator and printed maps

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Post #: 3312

RE: November rain...of blood - 11/4/2011 4:11:48 PM

House Stark

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A couple more thoughts about Java here from a green boy who's never seen a true winter...

First, are you intending Java to be a diversion to allow breakthroughs in the Solomons and/or India, or are you intending to make it a serious offensive? I think there's an argument to be made that you should go all out, even if it takes an additional month to ready to troops. If you take back India's industry, he'll have to cut back a little airframe production, at least until his major fleet production finishes later in 1944. Advancing more along New Guinea won't do much either. But if you can take Java, or even just hold a section with a few airbases on the southeast part of the island, you will be threatening at least half of his oil, if not more. Remember, you get B29s soon. If you can base them in Java, then he has to bring in flak/fighters to cover Balikpapan, Palembang, Tarakan, Miri or else risk getting strategic bombed. (You can bomb DEI right, so long as its 20,000+ ft?) If you land on the islands nearby, he will be hard pressed to counterinvade. Especially after Tulagi, I wonder if he would even attempt it at all. If you land on Java proper of course, it will force a massive reaction. So the questions are, how many divisions can you bring, and how many of his divisions will it take to evict what you can bring?

An additional thing to remember is that southern Java has railroads, which could make it harder for him to trap any air force that you bring if you can rail them between bases. And once again, Rader would be forced to attack your position. This is, of course, where your experienced forces shine. If you could capture a couple airfields and then fly in several hundred fighters(maybe flying marine groups off of escort carriers to your new airfields) do you think he could overwhelm you and keep several airfields closed at once? And after you secured your bases you could fly in 2E bombers to harass any advance. And even if it turned into a stalemate with him controlling most of Java, that would still mean less troops opposing your other advances. And you could probably still bomb his oil, or send fast surface TFs of destroyers to raid Balikpapan or other oil ports. Or mine them from the air. Aren't destroyers decently hard to hit, especially by non-elite pilots? If I'm not mistaken, a foothold on Java could be the big break you need to really start putting a dent in his industry. I don't think his economy can survive on Indian/Burmese/Chinese oil alone.

And so long as you keep up pressure in India and Solomons he might not further reinforce Java. And you have enough carriers, you might even be able to keep a couple lurking in the Solomons as a distraction even when moving on Java. After all, who would split their carriers at all?

(in reply to GreyJoy)

Post #: 3313

RE: mistakes - 11/4/2011 4:14:20 PM

beppi

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In general i would not underestimate the power of the japanese airforce. Yes with that massive kills the allied air force will be superior as the xp will be unmatched. But basically during the late war a dedicated Japanese defense only needs numbers and pilots with 40x and 70 skill. That is enough to disrupt any long range landing anywhere.

There are multiple situations with different effects. In general, beginning of 1944 with the 44 squad types you can invade almost any place anywhere on the map and win the siege. If you do not count some extreme unlikely situations like "Japan drops 20 divisions in an base with land connections (so you cannot attrit the supply with air attacks/bombardment)". I count a 44 Marine division is more worth than two Japanese divisions, a 44 Army divisions is almost two japanese divisions and all your small armored bdes, as soon as they get the Sherman are almost impossible to disable/kill. So if you want a base, if you need a base and if the base is worth it you can take it. The danger is always the initial phase during the arrival, the landings and to keep your troops supplied.

In combination with the japanese ability to build huge amounts of planes i would classify it the following.

1.) Classic island hopping, as your currently do it in the solomons with a lot of japanese bases but no lvl 9 base in close range. Here the superiority does not really shine. You have own air cover, your carriers (if you need them) and you can fight a war of attrition. The small bases are hard to close down but have a limited number of planes which can operate from. You can attrit him and slowly move on. Always a good place to fight, but it takes a lot of time to gain large areas.

2.) Island hopping close or next to a lvl 9 base with short range invasions. Here it gets harder, especially if you need large landings to overwhelm the enemy defenders. It could be worth here for the japanese to do very massive strikes in the 1000nds to just overwhelm your aircover. You can still establish a number of allied bases along the way and it is not impossible to invade as you still can fight a war of attrition, you can harass his bases with 4E and so on. But still classical warfare where you cannot do a lot of mistakes.

3.) Long range invasions for isolated bases (islands). A good example here is the central pacific. Still a lot of enemy bases, but no lvl 9 base. Islands are isolated so no overland reinforcements. Can be done without problems in 44+. You have enough carriers/escort carriers to create a 1000+ planes umbrella around your designated target. As the fighting is usually bloody and short you do not need to really care about supply and so on as you have to bring it with the first wave.

4.) Long range invasions for small islands with 1 or 2 bases, or isolated bases with some friendly bases in 10-15 hex range. Still doable but it gets harder and harder. You should always aim for a lvl 9 base first. See Andy Macs and PZbs AAR how PZB crushed an invasion of Andy in the DEI where he did not aim for the big bases. The main problem with multiple smaller bases is that you need a lot of them. You need at least 3-4 bases close to each other to provide a good fighter cover. And to cap multiple bases and bring the online you need a hell of a coordination and a lot of time which you might not have unit the full japanese air force incl. KB comes for you. You still have at least a big base in range to originate your 4E from to expand your controlled airspace. With the 4E and LRCAP from your own base you still can suppress the enemy quite good. So a lvl 9 base in range of 10 - 15 makes it a lot easier.

5.) Long range invasions as 4.) but with no own base in range. Here it gets quite tricky. You need to rely on your naval assets to control the air which can be very hard especially if the enemy has one or more lvl 9 bases in range. You cannot invade with supprise as large invasions convoys most of the time get detected 3-4 turns prior to the landing. That is enough time for the japanese side to move fighters/tb/dbs/level bombers from half the empire to the surrounding bases. And a lvl 9 base can hold unlimited numbers so it is possible that you face 3000+ planes close to your landing site. It is possible still gain control of the air with your carrier forces but you cannot stay there forever. Even if you take the bases you will have a problem to rotate you airgroups as no friendly bases are in range. You could succseed if you aim for a lvl 9 base and bring everything you need including a strong groundforce, large amounts of engineers and support and a huge number of fighters. It might even be worth to unload all your carrier planes to the base at soon as it reaches lvl 9, at least for a short time.

6.) Long range invasions on large islands with multiple bases with a good rail/road network which helps the defender and no own bases in 10 - 15 hex range. This type would be a java invasion. You will face multiple problems at the same time. You cannot get close to the shore without Raeder noticing it. You face multiple lvl 9 bases at the same time. You have no own base in range. Raeder can shift half is airforce to Java and just attrit your carriers to death. The first strike might face a 1000 F6F and F4U-1 and get killed but the numbers drop off quite drastic. And the 5th strike at the same day will go through. You cannot suppress his airfields with your 4E, you cannot rotate your groups that far away from your own bases and you cannot evac your divisions through air if you encounter some problems. You will face massive problems to even establish one lvl 9 airbase and to gain control of the airspace over it. The enemy can stratmove everything he has to the bases you invade and you cannot even prevent that as out of paradrop range. Might be impossible to pull that off, even in 1945 if the japanese production is not reduced and in scen 2 the numbers you face are just so massive. You will have problems to even keep the base in supply as you face multiple enemy bases which threaten all supply lines. You will have a KB which threatens your supply lines. Not easy to pull such a stunt off. On the other hand side, if you catch Raeder off guard, with a lack of aviation support in is major bases or only some small ground forces it might work, but still very hard to pull off.

What do you think about Koepang ? It is a nice lvl 9 base, not on a large island. So no strat moving of reinforcements. It is in range of Darwin where your B-24(soon B-29) can operate from. You can rotate your fighter groups if necessarily and do an air evac if everything fails. You threat parts of the japanese oil production and you can head from there either to the west or the the east (Mindao). You bypass the lvl 8- belt around NG and open a second front.

Bring Darwing to 500 Aviation support (always have more than the 250 aviation support as it still gives a bonus up to 50% extra repair speed) and move in 200k supply and an air HQ to have a good lvl 9 bomber base without any limitations. Prepare 6-7 US divisons for Koepang. Add a Corps HQ and an army HQ (if you do not have an area HQ can replace one of these). Add all your armored Bdes which already have shermans and you will capture that base if raeder has less than 5-6 divisions there. You can hammer it with your 4E and through that you can kill of the supply quickly and you can take the base if you want it in a few days of combat. After capture you can even airlift enough aviation support and an aviation HQ in a few turns and bring up a full operational base quite qickly. If it is not lvl 9 you can airlift engeneers (without the vehicles) and have a 1000 engis working on the base to bring it to lvl 9 a few turns after you cap it. You only need the stuff in Darwin.

Your are in Command and there are a lot of hard decisions to take. You doing hell of a job and facing a good Japanese player in scen 2 is always a very big challenge. So whatever you decide it will be worth it and a lot of fun for you

< Message edited by beppi -- 11/4/2011 4:37:26 PM >

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Post #: 3314

RE: November rain...of blood - 11/4/2011 4:21:22 PM

jeffk3510

Posts: 4132
Joined: 12/3/2007
From: Kansas
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quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Seriously guys...i'm not getting the whole jap-pilot/HI cost you're talking about... i mean...i understand the general sense (Rader maybe is able to by-pass the HI cost of draining thousands of pilots into war) but i'm not even trying to understand the complex procedure...Jap economy remains a black mistery to me!

FWIW i'm not sitting on my thumbs....spending hours trying to elaborate a plan...now in the process of calculating how many ships do i need for the Java adventure and how many will be needed to keep the SOPAC/SWPAC fronts active and fighting...going crazy with sheets, calculator and printed maps

Understanding the basics of it could be to your advantage...

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Post #: 3315

RE: November rain...of blood - 11/4/2011 4:45:31 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
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quote:

Seriously guys...i'm not getting the whole jap-pilot/HI cost you're talking about... i mean...i understand the general sense (Rader maybe is able to by-pass the HI cost of draining thousands of pilots into war) but i'm not even trying to understand the complex procedure...Jap economy remains a black mistery to me!

FWIW i'm not sitting on my thumbs....spending hours trying to elaborate a plan...now in the process of calculating how many ships do i need for the Java adventure and how many will be needed to keep the SOPAC/SWPAC fronts active and fighting...going crazy with sheets, calculator and printed maps

Now that my feet are wet in my first PBEM I was just thinking how excited I am to start a GC playing the Allies one day soon, but with all of the numbers of late war units it almost makes my head swim thinking about how I would go about organizing it all.

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Post #: 3316

RE: November rain...of blood - 11/4/2011 5:25:22 PM

Cribtop

Posts: 3890
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GJ,

Crsutton's point is valid, but I realized when he posted it that we hadn't said it out loud enough. If you are going to the Java area (keeping in mind that islands are better as discussed), the strategic purpose of the attack is to create 4E bases in range of Oil centers and thus to bomb those Oil centers into the Stone Age (or perhaps even bomb them into the Pre-Cambrian Era). That is the payoff to the proposed Op. Keep that at the top of your bush, errr, mind as you plan.

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Post #: 3317

RE: November rain...of blood - 11/4/2011 5:30:49 PM

crsutton

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Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
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Playing scen #2 as the Allies with PDU on completly changes the nature of the air war. The worst notion an Allied player can have is to look at the campaign with the notion of fighting the war as it was really fought. That is, trying to fight a broad attritional war designed to overwhelm the Japanese with numbers. The Allied player has to focus his superior planes and (eventually) pilots on the main theaters at hand. You can expect massive Japanese fighter resistance at any point in the map. The key to taking it down is to close Japanese airfields that are most likely to impact your offensive moves and not worry too much about the Japanese air force in lesser theaters.

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Post #: 3318

RE: November rain...of blood - 11/4/2011 5:52:15 PM

Cribtop

Posts: 3890
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From: Lone Star Nation
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Indeed. JFB that I am, I wish some compromise could be found between the "hordes of Nates" with PDU Off and the "Hordes of Tojos" with PDU On. In reality, I suspect Japan could have produced more and better planes than they did if they optimized production. Had that occurred, the US would surely have increased allocation of airframes to the PTO to compensate, even under the constraints of "Germany First."

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Post #: 3319

RE: November rain...of blood - 11/4/2011 7:31:16 PM

princep01

Posts: 943
Joined: 8/7/2006
From: Texas
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Crib, your last sentence is so true. Unfortunately, the game designers did not seem to take that into consideration in defining the parameters of the Allied air reinforcements and production allocations.

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Post #: 3320

RE: November rain...of blood - 11/4/2011 7:50:52 PM

GreyJoy

Posts: 6750
Joined: 3/18/2011
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I interrupt my thinking just to tell you this very very very important news... the last turn has just arrived...and...Multan is being abbandoned. All of a sudden from 450k troops they became 200k...and he moved back to Dehli his 300 fighters based there...

This, obviously, does change everything...if Rader will move back all those divisions to other theatres...well...you know...

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by GreyJoy -- 11/4/2011 8:03:56 PM >

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Post #: 3321

RE: November rain...of blood - 11/4/2011 7:55:43 PM

Bullwinkle58

Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Playing scen #2 as the Allies with PDU on completly changes the nature of the air war. The worst notion an Allied player can have is to look at the campaign with the notion of fighting the war as it was really fought. That is, trying to fight a broad attritional war designed to overwhelm the Japanese with numbers. The Allied player has to focus his superior planes and (eventually) pilots on the main theaters at hand. You can expect massive Japanese fighter resistance at any point in the map. The key to taking it down is to close Japanese airfields that are most likely to impact your offensive moves and not worry too much about the Japanese air force in lesser theaters.

I agree with this in general, which is one reason I wonder why virtually no AARed games go mid-Pac (historical), and so many go DEI, where the LBA is a nest of vipers. The Marianas in summer 1944 is very, very hard to pull off, but it can be done. I think it should be a graduation exercise for a good PBEM player. Java, for the reasons Beppi outlines in his well-reasoned post, may be just too hard in Scen. 2.

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Post #: 3322

RE: November rain...of blood - 11/4/2011 8:08:11 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
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As a dedicated "Here I come DEI, despite hell or high water!" player, I fully agree with Bullwinkle. He is right.

The situation GJ faces cries out for a campaign in the Pacific Islands, where there are limited enemy airfields, where his carefully nurtured carrier power can soon be brought to bear most effectively, and where the full Allied might available in 1944 can overrun just about any enemy strongghold island. (But where's the fun in bludgeoning your way across the Pacific? Far more fun to "ignore" the strongest enemy garrisons while selecting more weakly-held islands that you can put to effective use).

Yes, the DEI promises to be an immense and bloody battle that should really bog down the Allies. The heck with that! Just go for the throat sometime in '44. You can pick off some isolated bases relatively easily (Marcus, Wake, Eniwetok, Ponape) earlier in the year, giving you more experience, and then go for the jugular (Iwo, Okinawa, Formosa or maybe the Kuriles or Hokkaido/Sikhalin Island) later in the year. One benefit of such a plan is that you'll end up bypassing so much of the "key terrain" that rader will be striving to protect (DEI, Borneo, Luzon, Mariannas). He'll be fit to be tied when you bypass these posts, rendering them and all the effort that went into protecting them irrelevant.

In the meantime, you can make lots of feints and noise in areas that rader will be sure to take notice - perhaps Cocos Island, India, Sumatra, Java, Timor, the Solomons, the Kuriles, etc. Creating elaborate feints is fun - send in the occasional DD raiders; suddenly flood an area with subs; use long-range patrol aircraft to coincide with the other two. Rader will naturally conclude that you're giving those remote regions attention for a reason.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)

Post #: 3323

RE: November rain...of blood - 11/4/2011 8:26:04 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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P.S. I am one of a number of folks who are contributing a heck of alot of "do this/do that/do the other thing" advice. All of us are endeavoring to help our good friend GJ, a relative newcomer who was introduced rather rudely to the game ("Hello, GJ. My name is rader. Just to show you a good time, I'm going to conquer China and pretty much all of India. Have a great day!).

In the name of trying to help, though, we are inundating the poor lad. We (I) probably need to back off, let him ask questions or seek advice when wanted, and let him chart his own course. He's gotten a handle on much of the mechanics, and he's certainly showing that he's capable of developing eleaborate and effective offensive and defensive plans and operations.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 3324

RE: November rain...of blood - 11/4/2011 8:50:21 PM

Bullwinkle58

Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Seriously guys...i'm not getting the whole jap-pilot/HI cost you're talking about... i mean...i understand the general sense (Rader maybe is able to by-pass the HI cost of draining thousands of pilots into war) but i'm not even trying to understand the complex procedure...Jap economy remains a black mistery to me!

Please read this thread:

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/printable.asp?m=2385586

Also read and understand this thread referenced in the first link:

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2377907&mpage=2&key=

The seocnd link is VERY, VERY important for you to understand if you want to have insight into how HI and pilots correlate in rader's worldview.

I should also highlight this post from Andy Mac, in the second thread, which points to the Law of Unintended Consequences in Patching Games:

"Remember the HI change to charge for pilot numbers came in AFTER scen 2 was desinged - (Patch 2 I think it was)

So thats why Scen 2 was slightly out of kilter

I adjusted it in the data patch to reduce the extra pilots given to Japan in Scen 2 as it wasnt a benefit."

When and under which data patch you guys started this game might therefore be highly significant.

BUT, in short, what I've been talking about as the Fur Farm Maneuver relates to this HI "tax" described in the linked threads. IF, and I emphasize IF, rader pulls every single pilot he can into groups, group reserves, general reserves, and the replacement pool, he pays the "tax" on the pilots in the 12-month training pipeline. As Andy says, pre-data patch, these numbers ramped up significantly in early 1943 under the original Scenario 2 design, before there was an HI tax. The tax was inserted in a patch.

Rader only pays the tax on pilots in training school. Under the Fur Farm tactic, he can avoid the tax ONLY by emptying ALL of the group reserves, Reserve pool, and Replacement pools. At that point, if a unit needs a pilot, it will pull a semi-trained guy out of the school pipeline and put him in an operating unit. Every one of these partially trained guys who exit the school pipeline avoids the tax after that time. The code will pull the most-trained trainees first (9-12 months) and continue back through the quarters as each is emtpied. It tries to carry out the player's orders to fill the air units with warm bodies as long as it can, even if those warm bodies are only partly trained.

The Fur Farm would be a radical tactic to employ. It could only be undertaken if there were huge HI surpluses to build the thousands of aircraft that would need to be lost in order to "dispose" of the Reserves and Replacement Pools, and then draw down the training pipeline numbers. But, he has HI reserves coming from India. And even poorly-trained pilots in the thousands shoot down some Allied planes, which you can't replace. And the fury of this air combat makes the game look "busy", as if a whole lot is going on, when in reality it isn't.

That's the gist of it. Please take the time to read the two thread links above. There is a lot of info in them.

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Post #: 3325

RE: November rain...of blood - 11/4/2011 8:51:30 PM

USSAmerica

Posts: 18715
Joined: 10/28/2002
From: Graham, NC, USA
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GJ, if Rader does actually start to pull back in India, I think you should consider long and hard about pushing him the rest of the way out of the region. I think recapturing the Indian industry (or at least denying it to Rader) would be almost as effective as driving into the DEI.

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Post #: 3326

RE: November rain...of blood - 11/4/2011 9:48:14 PM

Cribtop

Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

As a dedicated "Here I come�DEI, despite hell or high water!" player, I fully agree with Bullwinkle.� He is right.�

The situation GJ faces cries out for a campaign in the Pacific Islands, where there are limited enemy airfields, where his carefully nurtured carrier power can soon be brought to bear most effectively, and where the full Allied might available in 1944 can overrun just about any enemy strongghold island.� (But where's the fun in bludgeoning your way across the Pacific?� Far more fun to "ignore" the strongest enemy garrisons while selecting more weakly-held islands that you can put to effective use).

Yes, the DEI promises to be an immense and bloody battle that should really bog down the Allies.� The heck with that!� Just go for the throat sometime in '44.� You can pick off some isolated bases relatively easily (Marcus, Wake, Eniwetok, Ponape) earlier in the year, giving you more experience,�and then go for the jugular (Iwo, Okinawa, Formosa or maybe the Kuriles or Hokkaido/Sikhalin Island) later in the year.� One benefit of such a plan is that you'll end up bypassing so much of the "key terrain" that rader will be striving to protect (DEI, Borneo, Luzon, Mariannas).� He'll be fit to be tied when you bypass these posts, rendering them and all the effort that went into protecting them irrelevant.

In the meantime, you can make lots of feints and noise in areas that rader will be sure to take notice - perhaps Cocos Island, India, Sumatra, Java, Timor, the Solomons, the Kuriles, etc.� Creating elaborate feints is fun - send in the occasional DD raiders; suddenly flood an area with subs; use long-range patrol aircraft to coincide with the other two.�Rader will naturally conclude that you're giving those remote regions attention for a reason.

I actually agree CR, but still think the Java Islands campaign is worth considering.

There are 2 strategic goals for the Allies: 1) Cut off the resources of the DEI from the Home Islands; 2) Seize bases from which to conduct a strategic bombing campaign against the Home Islands.

The difficulties of employing a sub campaign to accomplish objective 1 have led to the popularity in AFB camps of attacking the DEI to seize or destroy the resources of the Indes directly. The Java Islands campaign could do that, and could convince Rader that GJ will follow the script of AFBs since the Q-Ball vs Cuttlefish AAR.

THEN GreyJoy, with several more months of hard combat experience under his belt, seeks to use the carrier heavy shortcut offensive to achieve objective 2. If he keeps up the pressure in the Solomons and in the DEI, and cranks up the pressure in India (with the twin goals of misdirection and depriving the enemy of India's industry), Rader will be doubly out of position when the hammer falls.

There are other paths to victory, but this plan IMHO will get GJ there the fastest and with the best attritional exchanges. The trade off is that it is rather complex, and GJ has expressed a desire to keep it simple.

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Post #: 3327

RE: November rain...of blood - 11/4/2011 10:30:10 PM

crsutton

Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Indeed. JFB that I am, I wish some compromise could be found between the "hordes of Nates" with PDU Off and the "Hordes of Tojos" with PDU On. In reality, I suspect Japan could have produced more and better planes than they did if they optimized production. Had that occurred, the US would surely have increased allocation of airframes to the PTO to compensate, even under the constraints of "Germany First."

I think I have a bigger problem with the ability to advance modern airframes way beyond their due date. I am OK fighting Franks in late 43 but will really start to hate this scenario if I see shidens and Japanese jets long before I get anything to counter them with. A month or two is fine but that is about it. I must admit, I also am a bit worried about the ramifications of kamikazes when there are so many frames to throw around.

As Viperpol my opponent pointed out in a different thread. With the Japanese, the imiting factor is the lack of support for all of these planes. But with the ability to rebuild lost support units and a shrinking perimeter it may not be such a problem later on. Only time will tell.

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Post #: 3328

RE: November rain...of blood - 11/5/2011 12:58:43 AM

GreyJoy

Posts: 6750
Joined: 3/18/2011
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Guys, just to let you know that i'm doing my homework hard...
I will try to reply to each of you...also to show my gratitude for the time you are spending teaching me and suggesting me

Beppi, CR, Bullwinkle, Crib, CRsutton, Obvert, Bolton, stark, the 2 Jeffs, USS America,...just to name the latests...Nemo, Alfred, Terje, FATR, ADB among those...and many many more...each of you should need a virtual "hug"

However...reading, researching, looking for other AARs...examples...testing...calculating...

Java...Timor...the old NG (east and west) route, the CENTPAC...and now with Rader retiring from Multan...my mind is a bit puzzled...i'm trying to grasp the consequences of my future actions...i'm trying to balance...should i change everything back and stick to the old plan...should i send more to India now that he's showing (maybe) a little fear (don't know what changed during the last weeks that convinced him to change in India)?...or should i simply keep on advancing like a bull...isle after isle till i reach Rabaul and Wewak...?

Lots of questions...and lots of possible answers too...

This was the last turn till Sunday...

So i need to update you...

Dec 19,20 1943

The enemy BBs did simply a trip...they showed themselfs and they went away...probably he was trying to protect Shortland against a bombing of my BBs now that Bouganville is in range... so nothing happened....

I decided ( :- ) ) that he sent his Kb back to Japan for some upgrades or R&Rs...my bet is that those 600 fighters seen at Rabaul are from the KB...he sent back his CVs...pretty sure of that....he did that or he's up to something...didn't seem them for a while now and only a couple of CVLs are moving close to Rabaul...

A question for you...what kind of Intel does Japan gets? Prepping units? Will he see my units prepping for java? That could be an answer about his strategy change in India...

< Message edited by GreyJoy -- 11/5/2011 1:13:43 AM >

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Post #: 3329

RE: November rain...of blood - 11/5/2011 1:20:36 AM

princep01

Posts: 943
Joined: 8/7/2006
From: Texas
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Reek, based on my limited exposure to the IJN/IJA side, they get very little intel of significance at all. Others can confirm or deny my guess, but I do not think he gets much of anything about units being prepped for this action or that. This is based on what the Japanese players have told me about their intel intercepts in the three games I've played as the Allies.

Also, as your "friend" and cheif tormentor, I join the chorus of those urging you to reframe from the Java jab.

(in reply to GreyJoy)

Post #: 3330