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Nov 9/10 - 10/20/2011 11:12:26 AM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
Joined: 5/28/2004
From: Sunderland, UK
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November 9/10 1942

My opponent's comment: "KB is like "El Cid", the rumour of its appearing scatters the moors of sight."

He should look behind him. A carpet of submarines is forming up. See James Schmitz, "Lion Loose".

The shipping around Kirakira, etc. departs. The three heavy American CVTFs head for Pearl Harbor and refit. The Eastern Fleet heads to Noumea to be a presence.




_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 241
Nov 11/12 - 10/20/2011 1:58:10 PM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
Joined: 5/28/2004
From: Sunderland, UK
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November 11/12 1942

The S-18 launches 4 torpedoes at the Kaga. Damn, missed!

He's attacking a SAG at long range. Minor splinter damage. I need to provide some air cover at Horn Island.

He pulled off a surprise attack at Kirakira.


_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 242
Nov 12/13 - 10/22/2011 11:20:35 AM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
Joined: 5/28/2004
From: Sunderland, UK
Status: offline
November 12/13 1942

Rather that hunkering down at Prome, the IJA punches out trying to limit supply to the IA forces near Rangoon. IA reinforcements are arriving.

A whack-a-mole ASW exercise is underway off the channel leading to Rabaul.

Shock attack at Hankow not a good experience for the IJA

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), preparation(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
     7073 casualties reported
        Squads: 312 destroyed, 356 disabled
        Non Combat: 81 destroyed, 73 disabled
        Engineers: 11 destroyed, 44 disabled
     Guns lost 68 (16 destroyed, 52 disabled)
     Units destroyed 2


Allied ground losses:
     2333 casualties reported
        Squads: 10 destroyed, 229 disabled
        Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 47 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled






_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 243
Nov 13/14 - 10/24/2011 12:19:14 PM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
Joined: 5/28/2004
From: Sunderland, UK
Status: offline
November 13/14 1942

A nuclear battleship bombardment at Kirakira. (See my old sig.)

Night Naval bombardment of Kirakira at 116,140

Allied aircraft
     no flights

Allied aircraft losses
     TBF-1 Avenger: 52 damaged
     TBF-1 Avenger: 5 destroyed on ground
     F4F-3A Wildcat: 8 damaged
     F4F-3A Wildcat: 2 destroyed on ground
     SBD-3 Dauntless: 47 damaged
     SBD-3 Dauntless: 6 destroyed on ground
     F4F-4 Wildcat: 9 damaged
     F4F-4 Wildcat: 2 destroyed on ground
     PBY-5 Catalina: 2 damaged
     PBY-5 Catalina: 2 destroyed on ground
     PBY-4 Catalina: 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
     BB Hyuga
     BB Ise
     BB Yamato
     BB Mutsu
     BB Nagato
     CA Kako
     CA Furutaka
     CA Kinugasa
     CA Aoba
     CA Kumano
     CA Suzuya
     CA Mikuma
     CA Mogami
     CA Myoko
     CA Chikuma
     CA Tone
     DD Akebono
     DD Oboro
     DD Amagiri
     DD Yugiri
     DD Sagiri
     DD Asagiri
     DD Ayanami
     DD Shikinami
     DD Hatsuyuki


Allied ground losses:
     1098 casualties reported
        Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
        Non Combat: 23 destroyed, 71 disabled
        Engineers: 7 destroyed, 30 disabled
     Guns lost 5 (1 destroyed, 4 disabled)
     Vehicles lost 12 (3 destroyed, 9 disabled)


Airbase hits 34
Airbase supply hits 11
Runway hits 71
Port hits 42
Port supply hits 5




_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 244
Nov 14/15 - 10/24/2011 2:26:05 PM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
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From: Sunderland, UK
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November 14/15 1942

The floating crap game and nuclear battleship bombardment moves on to Rennell Island.

Night Naval bombardment of Rennell Island at 113,140

Japanese Ships
     BB Hyuga
     BB Ise
     BB Yamato
     BB Mutsu
     CA Kako
     CA Kinugasa
     CA Aoba
     CA Kumano
     CA Suzuya
     CA Mikuma
     CA Mogami
     CA Myoko
     CA Chikuma
     CA Tone
     DD Akebono
     DD Ayanami
     DD Shikinami
     DD Hatsuyuki


Allied ground losses:
     30 casualties reported
        Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
        Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled


Airbase hits 1
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 15
Port hits 3
Port supply hits 2


_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 245
Nov 15/16 - 10/27/2011 12:26:12 PM   
herwin

 

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From: Sunderland, UK
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My opponent carpetted the way into Rabaul with ASW to allow his SAGs and CVTFs to get in safely. I need a plan B.






_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 246
Nov 16/17 - 10/28/2011 11:52:20 AM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
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From: Sunderland, UK
Status: offline
Relatively quiet.

_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 247
Nov 17/18 - 10/28/2011 7:04:49 PM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
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From: Sunderland, UK
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November 17/18 1942

Marginal advantage to the allies in the air.


_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 248
Nov 18/19 - 10/29/2011 10:48:15 AM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
Joined: 5/28/2004
From: Sunderland, UK
Status: offline
November 18/19 1942

The USN CVTFs enter Pearl Harbor for refit.

Allied night bombing in Burma reduces the industrial base and destroys aircraft on the ground.




_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 249
Nov 19/20 - 10/29/2011 3:57:58 PM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
Joined: 5/28/2004
From: Sunderland, UK
Status: offline
November 19/20 1942

A few Tonies tried to cover Rangoon during my night bombing run.

I tried to sneak a regiment into Rennell Island and was hit by a large number of carrier aircraft, apparently based at Munda. What about a night bombardment?

On the other hand, I'm now able to consistently destroy four times as many Japanese aircraft as I lose. I'm not sure exactly how--they appear to be mostly ground and ops losses.


_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 250
Nov 20/21 - 10/29/2011 8:43:57 PM   
herwin

 

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From: Sunderland, UK
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November 20/21 1942

Updated to latest beta patch

Japan still takes 22 air losses to my 14--lots of Tonies (13). I wonder how long this will continue before my opponent notices.


_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 251
Nov 21/22 - 10/30/2011 8:41:52 AM   
herwin

 

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From: Sunderland, UK
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November 21/22 1942

The KB has come out to play again.

5 Vals lost sinking a light patrol craft at Rennell Island.

Kweilin falls.

Still shooting down more than I'm losing.


_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 252
Nov 22/23 - 10/30/2011 8:32:10 PM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
Joined: 5/28/2004
From: Sunderland, UK
Status: offline
November 22/23 1942

If his BBs bombard Kirakira, he's in for a surprise. If he heads back, he's also in for a surprise.

His BBs do try to bombard Kirakira and my transports weren't away yet.

On the other hand, Arleigh Burke leads his destroyers into close combat with the Japanese carriers.

Wild turn...

I lose 8 aircraft and destroy 21. I wonder how long until he notices he's losing 20-30 aircraft a turn, and I'm losing about 10-15.

Very wild turn. Got confirmation that the Zuikaku was sunk. One of my destroyers managed to hit the Akagi--pity it was a 5" shell and not a torpedo. He has a heavy SAG currently at Tulagi--I had laid a large minefield at Kirakira, and he may have run into it. The KB is currently on the way back to Rabaul and is surrounded by a half dozen subs.

He's been running 20-30 aircraft losses for the last week, while I've been mostly staying in the single digits. I gave my heavy bombers in Burma a couple of days off, and they're about to start hitting Magwe at night, where most of his bombers and fighters are based. How quickly does this sort of imbalance become apparent?

< Message edited by herwin -- 10/30/2011 9:25:40 PM >


_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 253
Nov 23/24 - 10/31/2011 10:03:02 AM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
Joined: 5/28/2004
From: Sunderland, UK
Status: offline
November 23/24 1942

More attrition. A Japanese reinforcement convoy for Munda runs into a submarine wolfpack.

Five Zeros lost shooting down two F4Fs, while an ACM is attacked and sunk.

A total of 23 Japanese air losses and 12 Allied.

A few Japanese heavy ships are loitering off Tassafaronga. Last turn they were at Tulagi. I wonder why.


_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 254
Nov 24/25 - 10/31/2011 6:22:14 PM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
Joined: 5/28/2004
From: Sunderland, UK
Status: offline
November 24/25 1942

Japanese light SAG enters Terapo Harbor. My local SAG needs to intervene, and my covering aircraft need to be prepared for Betty strikes.

More USN SS attacks are successful.

The Southern Burma Corps was forced away from Rangoon. In Pegu, will head north to Toungoo. Myitkyina is invested.

Air losses: 16 Allied, 43 Japanese


_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 255
Nov 25/26 - 10/31/2011 8:58:41 PM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
Joined: 5/28/2004
From: Sunderland, UK
Status: offline
November 25/26 1942

The Zuikaku is alive, off Kavieng, being heavily escorted. Time for a dozen local subs to converge!

The Japanese First Panzer Army (it is a Panzer Army in strength!) overruns an Indian division near Rangoon. I bet Hitler would have liked that force attacking the Soviet Union.

Not a good day in the air. I lost 32 aircraft--he lost 19, mostly P40Ks and Hurricane IIcs in Burma. I need to turn it around.



_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 256
Nov 26/27 - 11/1/2011 10:15:57 AM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
Joined: 5/28/2004
From: Sunderland, UK
Status: offline
November 26/27 1942

The double dating is not because we're playing two-day turns. The date on the left is in Pearl Harbor and the date on the right is in Tokyo.

My opponent's comment for this turn:

"Except for land combat, everything went wrong this turn.

I hate subs.
I hate night bombing
I have bombers without fighter escort."

My initial response:

"It sounds like my wolfpack finished off the Zuikaku. I started using the night bombing because day bombing was losing too many aircraft. I was deliberately setting up fighter traps."

I discovered the Zuikaku bypassed my wolfpack, but a night port strike hit the Hiryu. So I added:

"I see the Hiryu took a hit. During WWII, when heavy bombers started port-striking a base, warships based there moved out. The chance of being bombed when immobile meant that ships could not tie up to the pier and refit. At least the Zuikaku seems to have survived."

I need to set up a barrier search north of Truk.

Summary of events:

I ejected a regiment from Terapo

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 10234 troops, 126 guns, 21 vehicles, Assault Value = 343

Defending force 4753 troops, 42 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 135

Allied adjusted assault: 266

Japanese adjusted defense: 97

Allied assault odds: 2 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), leaders(-), preparation(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
     2008 casualties reported
        Squads: 36 destroyed, 44 disabled
        Non Combat: 32 destroyed, 17 disabled
        Engineers: 2 destroyed, 4 disabled
     Guns lost 21 (8 destroyed, 13 disabled)
     Units retreated 1


Allied ground losses:
     146 casualties reported
        Squads: 0 destroyed, 22 disabled
        Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
     Units pursuing 2

Shwebo attack at 1-2, but Allied forces come out ahead in the exchange.

Myitkyina attack at 1-2, but reinforcements coming.

Bombardment near Magwe to the allied advantage.

Japanese invasion of Zamboanga.

Lots of ships in Rabaul.

Defensive minefield laid at Rennell Island--let the IJN try a BB bombardment there now!

Japanese air losses: 40 (25 Betties and Nells, 7 Tonies)
Allied air losses: 27 (11 P40Ks, 9 F4Fs)

Why are the P40Ks so fragile?



_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 257
Nov 27/28 - 11/2/2011 7:58:12 PM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
Joined: 5/28/2004
From: Sunderland, UK
Status: offline
November 27/28 1942

The Zuikaku seems to have survived or at least holed up at Truk. I will wait in a barrier patrol to the north.

Allied air 15 losses; Japanese 21.


_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 258
Nov 28/29 - 11/2/2011 8:04:13 PM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
Joined: 5/28/2004
From: Sunderland, UK
Status: offline
November 28/29 1942

My opponent is thinking about shifting to night ops.

Zamboanga falls.

Lautem falls.

Allied air losses: 23; Japanese: 31


_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 259
Nov 29/30 - 11/2/2011 10:12:54 PM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
Joined: 5/28/2004
From: Sunderland, UK
Status: offline
November 29/30 1942

Japanese light SAG off Terapo. My light SAG is nearby--could there be an engagement? No. I need to replace the SAG commander.

Japanese bombard Pegu. Am I out in time? Looks like it...

Allied air losses: 44; Japanese: 30. Those P40Ks are delicate beasts.







_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 260
Nov 30/Dec 1 - 11/3/2011 2:29:01 PM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
Joined: 5/28/2004
From: Sunderland, UK
Status: offline
November 30/December 1 1942

My opponent is looking forward to an upgrade of his ASW. I'm looking forward to a doubling of my torpedo pHit.

A generally quiet turn.

Allied air losses: 21; Japanese: 19. 8 ops losses of C47s at Terapo.




_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 261
Dec 1/2 - 11/4/2011 9:51:39 AM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
Joined: 5/28/2004
From: Sunderland, UK
Status: offline
December 1/2 1942

A very quiet turn.

The Chinese eject the Japanese from Myitkyina.

Ground combat at Myitkyina (64,42)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 19935 troops, 64 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 677

Defending force 4135 troops, 26 guns, 71 vehicles, Assault Value = 155

Allied adjusted assault: 349

Japanese adjusted defense: 76

Allied assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 0)

Allied forces CAPTURE Myitkyina !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), preparation(-), fatigue(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
     1274 casualties reported
        Squads: 26 destroyed, 13 disabled
        Non Combat: 44 destroyed, 8 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
     Guns lost 11 (8 destroyed, 3 disabled)
     Vehicles lost 49 (48 destroyed, 1 disabled)
     Units retreated 2


Allied ground losses:
     755 casualties reported
        Squads: 3 destroyed, 62 disabled
        Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Allied air losses:3; Japanese: 11




_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 262
Dec 2/3 1942 - 11/4/2011 7:45:10 PM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
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From: Sunderland, UK
Status: offline
December 2/3 1942

Allied air losses: 8; Japanese: 6. Time for a CAP trap.

Bassein back to the Japanese. The Chinese head down the RR to Shwebo.




_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 263
Dec 3/4 - 11/5/2011 1:51:36 PM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
Joined: 5/28/2004
From: Sunderland, UK
Status: offline
December 3/4 1942

After the next turn, we'll be testing a beta version that hopes to address the night operations problem.

Two Japanese tank divisions overrun an Indian brigade. Question for the readers--did the Japanese actually run tank divisions in Burma? None of my books mention them.

OK, the 1st Tank Division was created in Manchuria in June 1942 and was part of the garrison there. The 2nd Tank Division was also part of the Manchurian garrison and was created in March 1942. The 3rd Tank Division was created in Mongolia in June 1942 and was part of the North China Area Army. The 4th Tank Division was created in 1944. I've been ignoring the Burma border with my Indian and Chinese forces; it's fair he can, too. That explains the tank forces I've been encountering, though.

Ground combat at 57,48 (near Magwe)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 12623 troops, 261 guns, 812 vehicles, Assault Value = 585

Defending force 3190 troops, 6 guns, 44 vehicles, Assault Value = 128

Japanese adjusted assault: 906

Allied adjusted defense: 1

Japanese assault odds: 906 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: leaders(+), disruption(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
     201 casualties reported
        Squads: 0 destroyed, 20 disabled
        Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
     Guns lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
     1554 casualties reported
        Squads: 119 destroyed, 0 disabled
        Non Combat: 35 destroyed, 89 disabled
        Engineers: 18 destroyed, 0 disabled
     Guns lost 5 (5 destroyed, 0 disabled)
     Vehicles lost 56 (14 destroyed, 42 disabled)
     Units retreated 1


Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
   1st Tank Division
   2nd Tank Division

Defending units:
   44th Indian Brigade

Allied air losses: 10; Japanese: 18.


_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 264
Dec 4/5 - 11/5/2011 5:00:18 PM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
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From: Sunderland, UK
Status: offline
December 4/5 1942

This will be the last turn played with the beta we currently know and love. Next turn will be an alpha test of the beta under development to address the night bombing exploit.

I have a BB-led heavy SAG hanging out off Portland Roads with LRCAP on call. It's a deliberate Betty/Nell trap.

33 B-24s hit Rangoon at night, reportedly killing two Tonies (actually none) and four Helens (actually five).

Allied air losses: 7; Japanese: 12.

That's all for the night action. That's good shooting.

Three tank division equivalents try to overrun a British corps south of Toungoo. The shock attack produces  2-1 odds, nil damage for the Japanese, 3100 Indian casualties, and a retreat. Why bother fixing air and naval when land operations are so broken?

Ground combat at 56,51 (near Toungoo)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 1152 troops, 0 guns, 226 vehicles, Assault Value = 460

Defending force 10249 troops, 162 guns, 223 vehicles, Assault Value = 138

Japanese adjusted assault: 172

Allied adjusted defense: 85

Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), fatigue(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
     Vehicles lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
     3110 casualties reported
        Squads: 128 destroyed, 0 disabled
        Non Combat: 195 destroyed, 0 disabled
        Engineers: 16 destroyed, 1 disabled
     Guns lost 45 (45 destroyed, 0 disabled)
     Vehicles lost 56 (56 destroyed, 0 disabled)
     Units retreated 2


Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
   3rd Tank Regiment
   11th Tank Regiment
   18th/B Division
   18th/A Division
   14th Tank Regiment
   18th/C Division

Defending units:
   23rd Indian Division
   26th Indian Division

Japanese shock attack at Hankow. This is also badly broken.

Ground combat at Hankow (85,50)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 101961 troops, 797 guns, 130 vehicles, Assault Value = 2378

Defending force 48736 troops, 289 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 765

Japanese adjusted assault: 2529

Allied adjusted defense: 2157

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
     7424 casualties reported
        Squads: 74 destroyed, 388 disabled
        Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 100 disabled
        Engineers: 19 destroyed, 52 disabled
     Vehicles lost 8 (1 destroyed, 7 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
     2103 casualties reported
        Squads: 59 destroyed, 128 disabled
        Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 11 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
     Guns lost 27 (2 destroyed, 25 disabled)

If you remember my whining from the beginning of the year, the outcome of the land combat engine is almost the reverse of what actually occurred. That is, recorded game casualty results populate the part of outcome space that you almost never see outcomes in actual battle data--and vice versa.


_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 265
Dec 5/6 - 11/6/2011 8:29:46 PM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
Joined: 5/28/2004
From: Sunderland, UK
Status: offline
December 5/6 1942

Alpha test of fix for night bombing exploit.

Night attack by 32 TBFs destroys a Jake on the ground.

Night attack by 35 B-24s on Rangoon destroys twelve Helens.

Nanning falls.

Allied air losses: 10; Japanese: 15.




_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 266
Dec 6/7 - 11/7/2011 6:59:21 PM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
Joined: 5/28/2004
From: Sunderland, UK
Status: offline
December 6/7 1942

Second alpha test.

End of the first year of war.

Allied losses: 13; Japanese: 9. Four aircraft destroyed on the ground.

Ground combat at 80,54 (near Hengyang)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 58859 troops, 269 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1732

Defending force 13364 troops, 112 guns, 24 vehicles, Assault Value = 428

Allied adjusted assault: 1228

Japanese adjusted defense: 331

Allied assault odds: 3 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: leaders(+)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
     5551 casualties reported
        Squads: 112 destroyed, 144 disabled
        Non Combat: 68 destroyed, 47 disabled
        Engineers: 6 destroyed, 9 disabled
     Guns lost 39 (17 destroyed, 22 disabled)
     Vehicles lost 5 (3 destroyed, 2 disabled)
     Units retreated 1


Allied ground losses:
     1000 casualties reported
        Squads: 31 destroyed, 241 disabled
        Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 18 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 26 disabled
     Guns lost 36 (5 destroyed, 31 disabled)


Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
   63rd Chinese Corps
   74th Chinese Corps
   46th Chinese Corps
   10th Chinese Corps
   65th Chinese Corps
   25th Chinese Corps
   11th Construction Regiment
   12th Group Army
   29th Group Army

Defending units:
   104th Division

SC collides with TK near Pago Pago.




_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 267
Dec 7/8 - 11/7/2011 7:11:46 PM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
Joined: 5/28/2004
From: Sunderland, UK
Status: offline
December 7/8 1942

No night aircraft casualties.

Allied air losses: 5; Japanese: 9.

Japanese attack by tanks in the jungle. (Yes, just so, but then I play OCS Burma, where that sort of thing is regarded as completely unreal.)

Ground combat at Toungoo (57,50)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 30399 troops, 245 guns, 333 vehicles, Assault Value = 979

Defending force 25851 troops, 498 guns, 509 vehicles, Assault Value = 420

Japanese adjusted assault: 478

Allied adjusted defense: 237

Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Toungoo !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), disruption(-), preparation(-)
experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
     484 casualties reported
        Squads: 1 destroyed, 40 disabled
        Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
     Vehicles lost 15 (3 destroyed, 12 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
     6461 casualties reported
        Squads: 191 destroyed, 31 disabled
        Non Combat: 369 destroyed, 0 disabled
        Engineers: 175 destroyed, 0 disabled
     Guns lost 225 (223 destroyed, 2 disabled)
     Vehicles lost 375 (375 destroyed, 0 disabled)
     Units retreated 5


Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
   3rd Tank Regiment
   18th Division
   5th Division
   14th Tank Regiment
   11th Tank Regiment

Defending units:
   23rd Indian Division
   14th Indian Division
   2nd British Division
   26th Indian Division
   III Indian Corps

Given the willingness to fix things like night bombing, what would it take to get ground combat fixed?


_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 268
RE: Dec 7/8 - 11/8/2011 10:41:29 AM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
Joined: 5/28/2004
From: Sunderland, UK
Status: offline
My posting of what realistic casualties might look like is posted here. The largest number of Commonwealth casualties I would expect to see in a day for this sized battle is about 400.

I have calibration data for the Burma campaign, and they are consistent with the OCS combat model. They are not consistent with the WitP-AE ground combat model.

< Message edited by herwin -- 11/8/2011 12:38:39 PM >


_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 269
Dec 8/9 - 11/8/2011 7:47:12 PM   
herwin

 

Posts: 6059
Joined: 5/28/2004
From: Sunderland, UK
Status: offline
December 8/9 1942

My opponent sent out something from Rabaul. No pause during the replay, so I'll report later.

There's been some interest in calibrating air attacks on troops. In OCS, a Sally or a Beaufighter unit (somewhere in the range of 20-45 aircraft) in Burma has an expectation of causing about 10 casualties per day. A fighter-bomber unit (same size range) can be expected to cause about 3 casualties a day. A Vengence unit, perhaps 15 per day. A B-25 was good for about 20/day, and a B-24 about 3 casualties a day (high-level bombing). Japanese airstrike by two Sally units and two fighter-bombers at Hankow, produced 387 casualties, about 15 times the expected number.

Allied air losses: 5; Japanese: 11, including two Japanese ground losses.




_____________________________

Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com

(in reply to herwin)
Post #: 270
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