heliodorus04
Posts: 1647
Joined: 11/1/2008 From: Nashville TN Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: BigAnorak Any chance of any evidence to back up these rather sweeping statements? The evidence I have from the game I am playing is that I caused the Soviets 4m casualties and faced a 4m Red Army by the Blizzard. My opponent did not run away and made me fight for every single hex - the same tactics I would use. I would be surprised and disappointed if the reduced manpower multiplier and armaments multiplier allowed the Red army to increase in size by 75% in the next 24 turns. No evidence that you would believe because you're an apologist who flat-out said Soviet command was more agile and better able to change plans in 1941 than German (who historically changed ARMY GROUP-level priorities successfully at Kiev, Leningrad, the Donbas/Rostov, and Moscow over the course of these 17 turns). We can't agree on what the facts are, so we can't have a discussion. Case in point, don't cite your anecdotal data from one game in which you point out that your opponent is doing the non-exploitive (that's not a pejorative) strategy of fighting forward. It's when Soviets realize the advantage of the organized hedgehog "eastward shuffle" that you'll see what I'm talking about. If your opponent lets you get deliberate attacks on a majority scale (i.e., he can start breaking a Soviet line with infantry deliberate attacks and then has MPs available with infantry to conduct stack-hasty-attacks thereafter), then he's not doing the eastward creep, so it's not going to create the same downstream, Blizzard 5-million and Spring 7 million Soviet army. The key to the eastward creep is setting up Soviet lines each turn so that the German infantry cannot hit you with deliberate attacks and stack-hasty-attacks in the same turn. Once you're doing that as the Soviet, you're playing to the unbeatable strategy for 1942's 7-8 million men army. By about turn 12, the Soviet has saved enough of everything (AP, guns, men, combat counters on the map) that he can re-organize around strongly lead armies, assigning rear-echelon units in reserve. The result is a German army that has to commit massive force to Deliberate attacks in order to avoid failure when the plethora of reserve units get committed. I'm seeing turns where 75% of my deliberate attacks are seeing Soviet reserve commitment, and in about half of those, the reserve commitment causes the Held result. This is the true advantage of eastward-creep: setting up the strongest lines a Soviet can make for turns 12-17 in the best defensible terrain around Moscow, and around the rivers, where ZOC movement penalty effects are amplified against the German (you either cross rivers or you pay ZOC costs, both of which gimp German movement). IF I had enough time, I could overcome this massive layered, Kursk-1943 style defense with deliberate attacks on a massive scale, but since this doesn't happen until around turn 12, at the Valdai-Moscow-Voronezh-Rostov defensive line, there's not enough German supply to do enough attacking each turn to make it pay off. You need a penetration in depth which will take several turns to achieve (remember: the non-fighting eastward shuffle can result in major AP savings, allowing for more Soviet fortified regions, and thus, many more level 3 forts in this critical Turn12-Turn17 german operations zone, which is very likely to be at Rzhev/Tula/Kursk/Kharkov/Dnepopetrovsk), and will amplify your movement restrictions due to ZOC swarms. The key to beating it would be to finally start winning the deliberate attacks even when reserves are committed such that Soviet units route out of position and you get a penetration that prevents reserves. The problem is you only have 5 turns do affect this, at the point on the map where your supply is most problematic, at a time when the Soviets are reaching their zenith of 1941 power. Remember that around turn 12-14 is when the free units from the early-game pockets start forming up in the hinterland, and they are in perfect position, can be freely assigned from Stavka wherever they are most appropriately slotted, with plenty of army HQs to choose from in terms of where the good rest spots are.
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Fall 2021-Playing: Stalingrad'42 (GMT); Advanced Squad Leader, Reading: Masters of the Air (GREAT BOOK!) Rulebooks: ASL (always ASL), Middle-Earth Strategy Battle Game Painting: WHFB Lizardmen leaders
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