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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek

 
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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/7/2011 2:41:27 PM   
BletchleyGeek


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quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

I'm afraid I'll have to pass on the task to divine the workings of Support Squad production. Fresh out of lizzard's gut since I used a lot on the ARM multiplier subject.



More than "divining" is more like coming up for the setup of a "randomized experiment" of sorts

PS: BTW, I'm more into the Roman way of horuspication by gutting chickens

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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/8/2011 4:13:24 AM   
randallw

 

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That last battle report was interesting, showing quite a few 'retreat' losses for the attacking player.  I suppose this happens when the defending side holds the ground and the attacker disengages, trying to head back to their own positions.

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Post #: 272
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/8/2011 10:27:50 AM   
BletchleyGeek


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quote:

ORIGINAL: randallw

That last battle report was interesting, showing quite a few 'retreat' losses for the attacking player.  I suppose this happens when the defending side holds the ground and the attacker disengages, trying to head back to their own positions.


Exactly. In my opinion this is often overlooked: the attacker suffers retreat attrition when he's repulsed. Due to the rather low experience and morale, Soviet retreat attrition is quite brutal. Most of the elements are destroyed. I'd bet good money that for the Germans in 1942, retreat attrition consists mostly of damaged rather than destroyed elements. Anybody can confirm this "guess"?

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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/10/2011 9:35:37 AM   
BletchleyGeek


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Turn 34 – 5 February 1942

We enter the month of February without many news other than the substantial improvement of the Axis army status. Q-Ball has counterattacked the forces I had on the outskirts of Orel, causing substantial losses. The exchange ratio – just by looking at the combat report which includes permanent and non-permanent losses – has been of about 3:1 favoring Q-Ball forces.

This combat is especially interesting



Note that two thirds of Axis losses are Damaged ground elements – possibly victims of those über SMG squads that ComradeP told to me about – and most interestingly, two thirds of my losses are Retreat Attrition losses.

Logistics & Organization

I'm considering the next February turns as time to recover and reinforce, since offensive operations will be very limited. This turn I manage to put into the rank and file 105,000 new recruits. This is a sharp decrease with respect to the peak we reached in early January, about a 50% less.

Operations

My attention and activities are centered on Orel:



There are four spots where I can get good odds. Q-Ball spoiling counterattack has really spoilt things for me here. I will direct as much artillery and sappers to the Armies in this sector. However, all this is to no avail. Q-Ball stops my troops dead cold



This has been a complete disaster. Detection levels were really low and my attacking armies have suffered substantial losses. I have launched 9 attacks – 4 in other sectors were Axis units seemed to me to be asking for a spanking – and I've only obtained 4 victories. Terrible success ratio. The casualty exchange is disastrous: 5,000 Axis permanent losses (2,000 KIA, 3,000 disabled) for 24,000 Soviet permanent losses (21,000 KIA, 3,000 disabled). Almost 5 to 1.

I think I need to brace myself for March. I'm deeply worried, this turn felt like a summer 41 turn and I'm NOT amused by that at all.

I've added to the spreadsheet a table for tracking Rifle Divisions morale (the bulk of the RKKA OOB). For this turn, the morale distributions are:

Morale Level #Units
30 or lower 4
40 or lower 100
50 or lower 251
60 or lower 23

Of the units in the Morale range from 41 to 50, about 50% are in the 41-44 range and another 50% in the range 45-50. This doesn't say many good things of the fighting prowess of the Red Army in the following months.

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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/16/2011 12:11:01 PM   
BletchleyGeek


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Sorry for the delay updating, I've been terribly busy this week :(

Turn 35 – 12 February 1941

Q-Ball keeps counterattacking my forces on the Orel – Voronezh sector and Stalino, wherever he can commit overwhelming odds without having to move much. Overall, he's launched 4 attacks, 3 of them successful. Analyzing the losses data, I see that the proportion of Soviet casualties when the Axis is in the attack is like that of the Axis in the defense: 7,000 KIA and 34,000 disabled, which include about 6,000 casualties due to attrition. These attacks are doing substantial damage to key units.

Operational Situation Report

I won't bother this turn updating this since there's nothing to update :)

Logistics & Organization

Soviet regular units are attaining Guard status, and I'm surprised to see that this turn (1.05.39 logistics phase) two Soviet Cavalry Divisions just became Guards



which happily happened to be part of the same Cavalry Corps. On the production front something surprising happened this turn. I found over 60,000 ARM points in the pool... something I didn't expect at all. Checking the manpower figures I see that 122,000 men were feeded into the RKKA units, which seem to have used basically to form up 5,600 – that's about 112,000 men - Support squads and other diverse equipment.

I need to get a hold on HQ strength levels I think... but when I check on the CR I see that at some point before blizzard I had setup Army HQ Max TOE to 75%. Many of my armies are up to full strength, and quite a few are well above their prescribed TOE level. I will be keeping an eye on this, and meanwhile, I make sure that every Combined Arms Army has a Max TOE of 75, while I leave the Shock Armies at 100%.

Operations

Seems that I'm not recovering Orel in 1941... better to be safe, as in good trenches, than sorry, as in lamenting by having pushed too far my troops when Q-Ball strikes back in March (and I'm pretty sure he'll).



I've pulled away from the line 2nd and 1st Shock Army – which sorely need a RnR period, and consolidated my positions. You can see on the picture my operational reserves, 5 armies, two of them in badly need of refit, and other two – the 50th and 43rd – which are really weak and I need to reinforce.

I'm doing this all over the front, though I'm delaying it a bit in the South.

No attacks this turn. The Winter counteroffensives are over.

Turn 36 – 19 February 1942

“All quiet in the Eastern Front” said Q-Ball when he returned to me with his moves. He hasn't counterattacked at all, but there has been some sharp fighting in the skies, where the Luftwaffe has gotten a slightly bloody nose, losing 20 recon and 5 fighter planes due to CAP intercepting recon flights.

Logistics & Organization

Armaments pool keeps rising, it's slightly over 100,000 points this turn. Again, a lot of Support Squads have been built, gobbling about 52,000 out of the 110,000 replacements I've managed to mobilize.

Turn 37 – 26 February 1942

The blizzard is over – and next turn I'm pretty sure that Q-Ball will start causing some trouble, so it's time to make balance of these past 12 turns where I've been awarded the initiative by the First Winter game mechanics.

First, let's take a look at the frontline



The only major target I've not been able to get is Orel, and I'm really chided about it. Getting Orel would have meant having a very nice bulge on German lines that Q-Ball couldn't ignore. The progress in the south it's not too shabby, but it's more because of Q-Ball trading space for time rather than because of the RKKA crushing the cruel invaders on the steppes. I wouldn't be surprised if I were again thrown against the ropes there before April. Q-Ball line isn't as inefficient as I expected and wanted.

Second, let's see how have we done in the losses department. For the Axis, since turn 25 to turn 37 these are broken down as follow:

KIA: 63,794
POW: 25,726
Disabled: 531,658
Arty: 4,158
AFV: 647

For the Red Army, losses have been:

KIA: 273,977
POW: 6,005
Disabled: 339,861
Arty: 6,434
AFV: 1,951

After 12 weeks of campaigning, the Red Army has managed to inflict on the Axis as much losses as it has received in the infantry department. Here I need to thank, above all, to General Winter, the best Soviet general by far. Artillery losses have been heavy for both sides, but I think both myself and Q-Ball will get over it pretty quickly. Finally, my AFV losses have been quite spectacular, and mostly consisting of T-60 and other light stuff. Out of 2,277 T-60 produced, over 900, have been destroyed or lost due to operational damage.

So I've managed to put a dent into the German Army and, at the same time, get the Red Army to recover from the complete disaster 1941 has been:



I've 5.5M men on the field, over 65,000 guns and 4,700 AFVs. It's not a humongous Red Army, but one that can put some more fight than the ragged force Q-Ball has been facing from August to November.

Other miscellaneous data can be checked on the spreadsheet. I've not bothered to separate blizzard attrition losses from combat losses for the Axis, since Q-Ball has been pretty active on the counterattack. My estimate is that about 300,000 out of those 530,000 disabled have been blizzard casualties.

This game contrasts starkly with my most recent blizzard. While I've achieved similar territorial gains, I started in this game with a much weaker Red Army. Q-Ball really put the hurt on me, and he was very close of breaking the back of the Red Army. This has been a pretty tense 1941. However, he's perhaps the first of my Axis opponents to have got a hold – in a comprenhensive way – on the First Winter Rules and their meaning for the Axis and the dynamics of the campaign. He's also been able to keep his head cool even in the darkest evenings of early January 1942, when it seemed that the Wehrmacht was collapsing. But rather than that, he's fought an excellent fighting withdrawal, denying me use my armies, especially in the south, to their full potential.

I'm expecting an EXTREMELY interesting 1942.

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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/16/2011 12:48:27 PM   
BletchleyGeek


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek
I'm expecting an EXTREMELY interesting 1942.


Just checked Q-Ball's answer to Turn 37... and seems I'm not going to be disappointed :)

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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/16/2011 1:16:09 PM   
janh

 

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Indeed, Q-Ball already posted and it looks, errh, not very good...  The 42 Red Army isn't exactly what you'd wish for, in fact, despite the relatively good shape you preserved it in, I expect you will have a very very tough time. 

On the up-side, the Wehrmacht is at a rather neutral 3.3 Mio, and ok in tank and gun strength.  Neither side has been bled hard as their historical counterparts (I do again recommend to check out Glantz' book on the German defensive doctrine, http://www.cgsc.edu/carl/resources/csi/wray/wray.asp#orgin -- it describes the mess AGS found itself in during July 41, how dire the defensive battles of AGC during July-August were, and how surprisingly badly the German Infantry was depleted by Russian counteroffensives all summer until February; including numerous divisions being reduced to mere regiments; the book sheds very interesting facts on the numerical strength of Wehrmacht by Typhoon, and the skill of small Soviet units in counterattacking).

One question Q-Ball raised in his AAR was the issue of your blizzard attacks, being comparably few and the greater impact rather small.  No major breakthrus, no pockets or near-encirclements, and besides a few hexes gained, nothing that really would have caused chaos as you'd perhaps hope from a blizzard counteroffensive. Without spoiling secrets, I probably can say that Q-Balls Wehrmacht was not near the breaking point.  Surely all this was in part due to Q-Ball also being conservative on the offensive, gaining a lot without having to risk too much, and without engaging in costly attacks.  Which raises the question why the Axis can push so hard and gain much more than historical against a skilled player, who attempts to fight with the Red Army as much as he can?  That's probably not only a supply issue. 

So Q-Ball apparently entered blizzard with an intact German Army, and even started preparing winter defenses (that the Germans originally prepared much too late, if at all), but in turn he also inflicted lower casualties on you.  During the Winter offensive, you did similarly proceeded quite carefully, performing only the attacks with high-odds that also served a greater strategic goal.  The big question now are: could you have pushed harder at a reasonable cost given that you also had more forces at your disposal than the reference case?  Could you have caused a real break-thru and ensuing crisis?  Or is this all that was really possible?  Perhaps it would also require the Axis to be more reckless in summer and up to the blizzard and commit to more costly head-on attacks, leaving the Axis Army weakened an overexposed?


< Message edited by janh -- 11/16/2011 1:19:48 PM >

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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/16/2011 2:01:26 PM   
BletchleyGeek


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:)

The remark about the "Wehrmacht collapse" was directed at some people who suggested that to me (not on these forums). I never believed that myself.

quote:

ORIGINAL: janh
On the up-side, the Wehrmacht is at a rather neutral 3.3 Mio, and ok in tank and gun strength. Neither side has been bled hard as their historical counterparts (I do again recommend to check out Glantz' book on the German defensive doctrine, http://www.cgsc.edu/carl/resources/csi/wray/wray.asp#orgin -- it describes the mess AGS found itself in during July 41, how dire the defensive battles of AGC during July-August were, and how surprisingly badly the German Infantry was depleted by Russian counteroffensives all summer until February; including numerous divisions being reduced to mere regiments; the book sheds very interesting facts on the numerical strength of Wehrmacht by Typhoon, and the skill of small Soviet units in counterattacking).


Thanks for the reference janh. There are indeed some very depleted German infantry units, but they're in our game around Moscow, where the fighting really "raged".

quote:

ORIGINAL: janh
Which raises the question why the Axis can push so hard and gain much more than historical against a skilled player, who attempts to fight with the Red Army as much as he can? That's probably not only a supply issue.


In this game he hasn't gained "that" much than historical, but in north and along the Kursk - Kharkov - Stalino line. In the south it was a supply issue, he overran his railhead and didn't get them into range in time to do anything useful before Mud hit.

It's not only about supply. I'm pretty sure the effect of experience on Tactical combat play a major role in this as well. Germans in 1941 never take much losses either when defeated - a rare thing - or when an attack is repulsed - attackers take retreat attrition when attack fails. This is a major factor, since there a lot of German failed attacks as the season advances. Add to that how easy is for supply to flow around, and damaged elements become easily repaired and Fatigue levels go down also quite efficiently. The tempo of operations in 1941 - and beyond that - is just out of whack.

I've already launched a few counterattacks this turn and I'm noticing that something has changed. On the one hand, there's no more 1:1 -> 1:2 rules, and Soviets suffer less in the attack agaings un-entrenched Germans. And also, German experience seems to be somewhat lower. So perhaps in 1942, keeping the tempo they sustained in 1941 might not be possible.

quote:

ORIGINAL: janh
So Q-Ball apparently entered blizzard with an intact German Army, and even started preparing winter defenses (that the Germans originally prepared much too late, if at all), but in turn he also inflicted lower casualties on you. During the Winter offensive, you did similarly proceeded quite carefully, performing only the attacks with high-odds that also served a greater strategic goal. The big question now are: could you have pushed harder at a reasonable cost given that you also had more forces at your disposal than the reference case? Could you have caused a real break-thru and ensuing crisis? Or is this all that was really possible? Perhaps it would also require the Axis to be more reckless in summer and up to the blizzard and commit to more costly head-on attacks, leaving the Axis Army weakened an overexposed?


Well, he almost did to me 4M casualties in 1941, which is not too shabby, considering the ARM crunch and the reduced Manpower compared with previous versions.

To answer your question, the degree of success of the Red Army during blizzard is directly proportional to how pigheaded is the Axis player about keeping a few meaningless hexes. This has been always the key, always. If Q-Ball had just sit on his lines, allowing me to use my armies to full effect rather than having me to burn MP's chasing him, there would have been a breakthrough. But he didn't. As soon as I saw that he was not going to be baited into a "Not a step back" stance, I basically gave up, attacking where I could hurt him without bleeding me white. Also that thing he did of stacking three units and leaving one hex between them was pretty smart. He massed CV and he wasn't exposing any real soft spot for me to strike.

I'm actually happy about Blizzard also in the Guards department. I've got 11 Guards Rifle Divisions, and 1 Cav Guards Corps (waiting for other to become Guards as well now that the issue with promotion has been allegedly fixed in 1.05.40) and more to come if Q-Ball doesn't destroy them in the following 3 turns, of course :) I've got also about 400 AP's on the pool... but I'm getting ahead of Turn 38 AAR ;)

< Message edited by Bletchley_Geek -- 11/16/2011 2:04:21 PM >


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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/16/2011 2:48:05 PM   
janh

 

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That actually sounds pretty good.  A few posts further up you displayed MP on your unit icons, and they didn't look that low.  But if the opponent performs a slow withdrawal, and your high MP units like cavalry, mech and tanks don't yet pack a big punch, pocketing or causing another crisis will be very hard.  In fact, the winter withdrawals, and also those in later summers, will be the corresponding countermove to the Soviet fighting withdrawal in earlier days.  Perhaps the only thing that would prevent such slow retreats (Sir Robins) would indeed be adding a political component like some Stalin or Hitler orders  (or artificial constraints on industry or manpower production).  Fortunately we don't have those orders, or playing the later war years as a German might turn into a big headache.  Looks like patch 1.05 is really close.  Let's see how other AARs work out.

Best,
Jan

PS. The book ref is good reading, and seems not as biased as some other books, particularly the German literature (of "contemporary" authors).  I guessed that you already read it, but hopefully others will find it interesting and instructive, too.

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Post #: 279
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/16/2011 3:43:31 PM   
BletchleyGeek


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quote:

ORIGINAL: janh
A few posts further up you displayed MP on your unit icons, and they didn't look that low. 


I worked on that, attaching RR Bdes to Army HQ's leading the offensives and assigning good Admin/Initiative leaders. The problem wasn't that of MP availability, but how expensive it was to enter a German held hex. For instance, with a 12MP Rifle Division, I usually spent 4 to 6 MP's already depending on the terrain. And that leads us to Morale... a Red Army with worse overall, average morale is an overally, on the average, slower Red Army.

quote:

ORIGINAL: janh
But if the opponent performs a slow withdrawal, and your high MP units like cavalry, mech and tanks don't yet pack a big punch, pocketing or causing another crisis will be very hard.  In fact, the winter withdrawals, and also those in later summers, will be the corresponding countermove to the Soviet fighting withdrawal in earlier days.  Perhaps the only thing that would prevent such slow retreats (Sir Robins) would indeed be adding a political component like some Stalin or Hitler orders  (or artificial constraints on industry or manpower production).  Fortunately we don't have those orders, or playing the later war years as a German might turn into a big headache.  Looks like patch 1.05 is really close.  Let's see how other AARs work out.


That was the nice thing about Q-Ball stacks thing. Usually one has the opportunity to crush a slowly moving, severely weakened German unit on the retreat with Tank Brigades and Cav Corps. But with that the divisions in better shape look after their kamerads.

My concerns about WitE at the moment are two: the ubiquitous cornucopia of supply and certain ground elements being übermodeled in the Tactical Combat system. Regarding supply, although I did some work to keep my forces supplied, I think I did too little work for the effect obtained. I was really surprised to see that the Volkhov and Northwestern Front units, even advancing through heavy woods in deep frozen snow, still received substantial supply (but interestingly, no replacements). They should have been starving.

So I'd say that yes, we're about "there".

quote:

ORIGINAL: janh
PS. The book ref is good reading, and seems not as biased as some other books, particularly the German literature (of "contemporary" authors).  I guessed that you already read it, but hopefully others will find it interesting and instructive, too.


I think I've read a quite interesting study on that site about German capabilities during blizzard (a paper from 1983 I think). I referenced to it during the First Winter Flame Wars that occurred on the forums back in April or May. Again, thank you for the reference.


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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/21/2011 9:36:11 AM   
BletchleyGeek


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A long delayed update...

Turn 38 – 5 March 1942

After a couple of very quiet turns, the latent volcano the front was, it spectacularly erupts. Q-Ball has grouped his Panzer Armies into two groups and has delivered powerful strokes in the Orel – Tula direction and in the Stalino – Valyuki direction. These two offensives have entailed a total of 57 battles, the highest since Turn 22, of which 45 have become Axis victories. This has meant 43,000 casualties for Q-Ball, evenly split between KIA and disabled, 518 artillery pieces and 84 AFV's. The Red Army has suffered 80,000 casualties (23k KIA, 54k disabled), losing as well 2,209 artillery pieces and 326 AFV's. The fight has been pretty intense.

In the air, the VVS has suffered as well a major defeat. Q-Ball has lost 20 fighters – Axis tactical aviation seems still to be away from the front – while I have lost over 300 planes in aerial combat alone.

It's interesting to see that the proportion of KIA vs. Disabled seems to be dependant on who is in the attack. Axis KIA vs. Disabled ratio seems to be 50%. Let's see how does that look for me when I counterattack.

Operational Situation Report

Bryansk Front 31st and 49th Army have been shattered in front of Orel after putting up a good fight. Q-Ball has advanced about 40 miles deep into my lines



with no less than 8 Motorized divisions – 4 of them Panzer. Besides that he also tried to isolate a good chunk of 4th Army but he cam across 1st Shock Army positions. Six divisions and two tank brigades are in a quite difficult position.

Things in the south look really bad. Q-Ball has done here pretty much what he's wanted to



Smashing through the lines of Southwestern Front 5th, 18th and 57th Armies. 16th Army – which traded a few units with 3rd Shock last turn – has been almost been destroyed by the onslaught. I can't put my finger on what's worse: having most of 18th Army encircled just east of Kupyansk or the fact that he's achieved an excellent position to pursue further operations. I need to consolidate my positions and reinforce.

Logistics and Organization

On this aspect I'm not particularly worried. Pools have plenty of equipment and replacement tanks and this turn I was able to put into the lines 120,000 recruits. Armaments production is steady at 91,000 points per turn, and I can't still believe my eyes when seeing that there are over 140,000 points on the Armaments pool. Besides that, I have 400 AP's in the pool. So here all I need to do is to carefully manage things.

Although the Blizzard hasn't brought about the demise of the Axis armies, I've got quite a few Guards conversions. The Red Army lists on his OOB 11 Guards Rifle Divisions and 1 Guards Cavalry Corps



What I need to do this turn is to scoop all Airborne Brigades and put them out of harms' way. With Q-Ball attention to detail, I wouldn't be too surprised that he tries to make me very unhappy destroying as many of them as possible before Mud hits.

Operations

I counterattack the German spearhead northeast of Orel with 1st Shock and 60th Armies managing to push back two Panzer Divisions



these two battles are quite interesting. In the north, Konev leads to victory the bulk of 1st Shock Army, inflicting a sharp defeat on 3rd PzDiv



Note the proportion of Destroyed and Damaged ground elements. That's almost a neat 50-50 split. It also catches my eye that even winning the battle, the Soviets get 3 times as many destroyed elements and 4 times as many damaged elements as the Germans. To the south, 60th Army scores another victory



you can see that the proportions I discuss above are more or less the same. In both cases I've needed to mass six times as much personnel as the Axis. I think that if the 1:1 → 2:1 rule had been in effect, both combats wouldn't have been losses. It's just a hunch, I know.

In the south I'm in full flight, I need to gather my forces



I've redeployed 42nd and 4th Shock Army to make up for the huge gap that was developing just south of Voronezh. 47th Army – another of STAVKA reserves – goes forward, perhaps a bit recklessly, to establish a screen protecting the remnants of 18th, 57th and 16th Armies. 3rd Shock will be the anchor of Southern and Southwestern Fronts. I also need these troops to rest a bit: Q-Ball push to the north caused substantial damage.

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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/21/2011 9:38:32 AM   
BletchleyGeek


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Turn 39 – 12 March 1942

The Axis late Winter offensive continues. While in the Orel sector things have quieted down notably – mostly because the participation of strong and substantial reserves – the matter in the South is very worrying. Q-Ball has launched 58 attacks – all of them south of Voronezh – netting about 200,000 prisoners in the pockets east of Kupyansk. Out of these 58 attacks, only 11 have resulted in Soviet defensive victories. While the Luftwaffe tactical aviation has still to appear, German fighter squadrons have fought an awesome defensive air action, inflicting 10 times as many losses than suffered: 20 fighters have been exchanged for about 200 VVS airframes. That's quite a – flying – meatgrinder.

Operational Situation Report

As I commented in the introduction, Q-Ball has stopped his operations on the Orel – Tula axis, bringing forward the infantry



which, as you can see, isn't featuring really flashy CV. On the contrary, I see the infantry to be really weak here. 2nd Shock Army will be coming to the south, while I will have 1st Shock to hover towards the Southeast.

As I expected, the “monster” motorized divisions I had spotted drive a wedge trying to reach the Don River



Those are quite fearsome Panzer Divisionen. But also note the quite uneven state of German (and Axis) infantry here. Q-Ball has really done a good job keeping the Motorized divisions in good shape, but he can't be strong anywhere. That tenet of most good Eastern Front games “the Germans can do anything, but can't do everything” comes to my mind when looking at this picture. The goal here is to convince Q-Ball that further pushing, without having the infantry in a better shape is an unsound idea. Let's see if I can get things my way.

I said I was really worried about the South, and if this picture tells you why



I sort of knew that as soon as I moved the operational reserves I had here to the hotspot further north, this was bound to happen. Now I've to deal with the menace of these Motorized divisions breaking through all the way to the Lower Don. This threat is a REAL problem, which I'm not sure I know how to deal with.

Logistics & Organization

This turn I've managed to put about 100,000 replacements into my front line units, and about 40,000 of them have been gobbled by support squads... I'm really helpless about this. It's not yet a major problem, but really doesn't help one bit to get things steered into the “right” direction.

On the bright side, Pavel's fixes to Cavalry divisions Guards conversion mechanism that came with 1.05.40 are felt. Five Cavalry divisions attain Guard status, which means I get another Guards Cavalry Corps.

Operations

The situation in the Donbass is very bad. So bad I'll need to strip my reserves northwest of Moscow to reinforce that sector of the front. Right now I feel like a field surgeon facing the need to cut away a chunk out of a poor soldier body in order to save his life. It's not a pleasant feeling.

I forgo many possible attacks, favoring conservation of force, I'm really reeling from the blow in the South, which is probably going to be worse. It's all about damage control... again. But I can't refrain from stinging the PanzerWaffe



as I relieve 1st Shock by the fresher 2nd Shock Army.

This is how the Red Army lines are set at the end of the turn in the South



you can see that quite a few divisions are going to be trapped next turn... That's been a conscious decision. They didn't have enough MP to get out of harms' way, and I can't really afford Q-Ball wiping out my forces covering Rostov – the door into the Caucasus. That's what I meant by feeling like a field surgeon. I've also activated Transcaucaus Front – and spending a huge number of AP's rearranging commands, something like 150 AP's – in order to get a better balanced load of my Southern fronts. Besides that two Armies from the Kalinin Front are travelling at top speed towards the Lower Don, the 55th and 34th Army.

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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/21/2011 11:53:23 AM   
gingerbread


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek

On the bright side, Pavel's fixes to Cavalry divisions Guards conversion mechanism that came with 1.05.40 are felt. Five Cavalry divisions attain Guard status, which means I get another Guards Cavalry Corps.



Those 5 Cav should net you 2 Corps - two Guard & one regular to form.

About support - here is shot from a game of mine. With 20 men per ready and 16 per damaged squad, the ratio of men in support squads to the whole army is 68%!




Attachment (1)

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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/21/2011 11:57:31 AM   
BletchleyGeek


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quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek

On the bright side, Pavel's fixes to Cavalry divisions Guards conversion mechanism that came with 1.05.40 are felt. Five Cavalry divisions attain Guard status, which means I get another Guards Cavalry Corps.



Those 5 Cav should net you 2 Corps - two Guard & one regular to form.


Out of the 5 divisions, two were in the same corps, which was the one that got converted. The other three are scattered in different corps :(

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek
About support - here is shot from a game of mine. With 20 men per ready and 16 per damaged squad, the ratio of men in support squads to the whole army is 68%!





Yes, I am not liking this very much. More so when most of my Rifle Divisions number between 7000 and 9000 men. I need riflemen! On the other hand, perhaps having better a better support level will help to curb the losses due to damaged elements becoming destroyed during logistics phase. ComradeP pointed to me about the "buffer" effect of the pools, and is a substantial component of the "loss stream".

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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/23/2011 11:44:22 AM   
BletchleyGeek


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A small note: we have decided to allow each other to take a look at our AAR's, so don't freakout if you see him in the list of people viewing the thread :)

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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/24/2011 7:55:27 AM   
sveint


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Very interesting read. Your lack of fortifications is very worrysome.

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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/24/2011 9:54:41 AM   
BletchleyGeek


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quote:

ORIGINAL: sveint

Very interesting read. Your lack of fortifications is very worrysome.


Thank you for reading. And yes, it's very worrying, especially on the Lower Don.

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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/24/2011 8:55:12 PM   
randallw

 

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Look out for your 3 stack hexes right at the front line; they need a place to retreat or they rout.

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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/25/2011 8:31:33 AM   
BletchleyGeek


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quote:

ORIGINAL: randallw

Look out for your 3 stack hexes right at the front line; they need a place to retreat or they rout.


Yes, that's been a major factor for making the defeats to sting much more. I piled up to bring up fort levels... I just didn't take into account that Q-Ball could attack anywhere he liked :)

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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/25/2011 8:36:41 AM   
BletchleyGeek


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Turn 40 – 19 March 1942

Although Q-Ball has reduced considerably the number of attacks launched, he's been striking right on the soft spots... avoiding to bite on the bone and leave there a couple teeth. Out of 39 attacks, I've got only 5 Held, being the rest 23 Retreated, 10 Routed and 1 Shattered (a Mortar SU). On the other hand, these victories have come at a substantial price. 13,000 KIA, and 11,000 disabled, along with 98 AFV's and 340 Artillery pieces. The bill for the Red Army amounts to 17,000 KIA, 2,000 POW and 41,000 disabled, and on top of that, 245 AFV's and 1,400 artillery pieces. That's about a 2.5:1 exchange in infantry, 4:1 exchange in artillery and 2.5:1 in AFV's. Unfortunately, Q-Ball has managed to encircle some units north of Valyuki, so he's not getting that bad.

The brightest part of his turn has been the air war. This turn Q-Ball decided to let loose the Luftwaffe tactical aviation and he's perhaps already regretting it. He's lost about 291 airfames in Air Combat alone – including 170 Level Bombers and 81 Tac Bombers – while the VVS has lost just 107 airframes. This is definitely striking.

Checking the Air battles, finally a clear pattern emerges. See the following table, with the data for the top 6 air combats, in terms of air losses:

Ax Ftr | Ax Bmr | Lost Ax Ftr | Lost Ax Bmr | Sov Ftr | Sov Bmr | Lost Sov Ftr | Lost Sov Bmr
44 | 109 | 4 | 49 | 254 | 3 | 4 | 2
24 | 107 | 0 | 40 | 199 | 17 | 1 | 0
62 | 63 | 3 | 35 | 194 | 19 | 9 | 5
51 | 47 | 2 | 22 | 171 | 38 | 4 | 0
42 | 40 | 3 | 19 | 140 | 14 | 4 | 2
9 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 130 | 50 | 1 | 1

There's something out of whack. I would say that one of the changes in the air model with 1.05 – which increased the granularity of air strikes, by breaking down allocated planes into more, smaller strike packages – is getting wrong escorting bombers. Perhaps it runs out of fighters eligible for escort, and some bombers are allowed to conduct missions without any escort whatsoever. This should be looked on closely.

Note as well the huge numbers of fighter the VVS commits: I've Air Doctrine “Fighter Intercept” parameter set to 300.

Operational Situation Report

Q-Ball keeps insisting along three axis: Orel – Tula, Kupyansk – Valyuki – Voronezh and Stalino – Voroshilovgrad. Of the three Axis operations, the latter two are the most worrisome, and the last one is taking a VERY worrying outlook.

On the Tula – Orel axis, Q-Ball is playing it safe, by not committing too much on the offensive



which probably means his forces here are ripe for a pounding if I play my cards right. The problem is that I'm not sure which precisely are those cards. He's also caught me in a somewhat awkward position, since I was taking 1st Shock Army to the rear for refitting. Either I ignore his offensive completely and go along with my plans, or I ditch that – Mud is near after all – and turn on the heating by going fully to the counterattack. The latter looks as a better bet: the best way to get rid of that powerful motorized units concentration is to put the hurt on the Infantry, so he has to scatter them to hold the line.

I was sort of expecting this... I regretted not deploying 42nd Army more to the east to stop the powerful German motorized forces east of Valyuki



I have two powerful formations deployed on his flank – or front – which might do some damage to his motorized units. As in further north, the key here is to hurt his infantry or weak motorized divisions, to force him to disperse his strength.

And in the Lower Don, the picture looks very familiar



as in September 1941, he's grinding Southern Front forces – well, this time it's been more Transcaucasus the Front which has suffered the most – and has unhinged my position. Some of his leading motorized divisions start to look to me significantly weaker than two turns ago. There's one more turn until April – and Mud – so I need to be careful to avoid encirclements, while trying to strike hard where possible. RL keeps me very busy and Q-Ball's moves don't help me to process the turns quickly either.

Logistics & Organization

If something has been true about this game since the very beginning is that I've been overcommitted on the northern half of the Soviet Union. Sometimes because of need – there wasn't anyone to send there to help – and sometimes because of choice. Now I choose to reinforce significantly in the South, sending two whole armies and the equivalent of 10 Rifle Divisions to the Caucasus. I need to get ready for anything, although it's impossible to ready for everything. All this shuffling around of formations costs me dear in AP's.

From a purely logistical standpoint, the situation is improving. Seriously. ARM points are piling on the pool, mostly because of all those Support Squads being built, and partly because the evacuated factories production is peaking. In any case, I can cover my losses and improve the TOEs of my Artillery units. While AFV's are very high – two thirds of these are T-60's and their cousin the T-70 – production is very high as well, and the pools are full with replacements. Finally, and critical for the ability of the Red Army to consolidate its motorized formations by establishing Tank Corps, the vehicle pool is steadily recovering from the blizzard debacle, and I have something like 40,000 surplus. However, mud is coming – and with it again increased Vehicle losses – so I need to be careful with this, and not build too many Tank Corps.

Operations

First thing I need to get done is to “fix” the situation on the Lower Don. The 55th and 34th Armies – former Kalinin Front, still I've to decide what Front to assign them arrive in the nick of time to shore up my defenses



This is a pseudo-hedgehog defense, note the strongpoints with some weak brigades or divisions thrown to sap MP's. It's probable that Q-Ball tries to push towards the southwest to get an optimal start line for a Summer offensive towards Stalingrad or the Caucasus. Or he goes northeast to cull away some more units from the Red Army OOB.

I launch my armies along the Aidar river on the counterattack, pushing back Q-Ball forces along a 150 miles front



that should give Q-Ball some food for thought.

I decide to counterattack as well on the Tula – Orel axis, I need to sow Q-Ball mind with as many doubts as possible about his divisions here



actually, perhaps is here where I'm strongest. He'll probably try to take some revenge, but he's my guest to attack with low odds on strong units.

The second round this turn has been not less bloody than the first one. In the air, the Luftwaffe suffers another important defeat: 134 German planes have been shot down in combat, for just 37 of the VVS. It certainly doesn't make much sense to me, the Luftwaffe was doing better with the tactical aviation in the hangar!

In the ground, things are a bit like blizzard, but without the climate attrition. I've launched 11 attacks, achieving, for the first time I launch a significant number of those, of a 100%. Losses have been heavy for the Red Army: 11,000 KIA, 1,100 disabled, 160 artillery pieces and about 120 AFV's. The Wehrmacht bill is broken down into 3,400 KIA, 2,600 disabled, about 280 artillery pieces and 20 AFV's. Note the Red Army KIA to disabled ratio, it's 10:1!

So it does certainly look like we're back to 1941... but we aren't. I've been able to fall back, regroup and strike back. Let's see if these attacks, and that Q-Ball shares my perception about his infantry badly needing some rest & refit, discourages him from further offensive operations next turn.

You can check all the numbers I gather from WitE on the spreadsheet here.

< Message edited by Bletchley_Geek -- 11/25/2011 8:38:59 AM >


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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/25/2011 1:41:32 PM   
Peltonx


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Good data.

Remember its early March and his forses will take 5 full turns to recover from blizzard, as damaged men and equipment filter back to front.

What your seeing now is low TOE% units 50 - 80% that will quickly fill out by June.

The key is the morale of his units. Your winter O was sorry to say on the weak side. There were many reasons why, but it is what it was.

His over-all infantry morale is probably as good as can be expected with the strategy he used. Which means his CV values will be 25% to 35% better then what your seeing now.

So your counter attacking now while he is still weak from the effects of General Winter was just the right thing to do. You need to win as many battles as you can while he is weak to beat down German morale.

Once June comes those easy counter attacks are going to be far and few atleast until later in 42 depending on how the summer goes for you and him.

Very nice match you to are having.

Very even and only a handfull of minor mistakes by both players.

Pelton

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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/25/2011 1:55:36 PM   
BletchleyGeek


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton
Good data.

Remember its early March and his forses will take 5 full turns to recover from blizzard, as damaged men and equipment filter back to front.

What your seeing now is low TOE% units 50 - 80% that will quickly fill out by June.

The key is the morale of his units. Your winter O was sorry to say on the weak side. There were many reasons why, but it is what it was.


Thank you for the heads up. That gives me a general idea of the time frame of the REAL Axis show for 1942 :)

No need to say "sorry" man, I know the winter offensive wasn't the kind of "Axis gets ran over by the Hammer & Sickle Pain Train" business everybody in these forums has come to see as the "usual thing", or perhaps I'd even dare to say, "take for granted". Now, if anybody thinks I should have done things differently during blizzard, please speak up your mind freely. I haven't been able to keep the AAR - and the game - at the pace I'd have liked to, but that doesn't mean I don't welcome any kind of discussion or criticism :)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton
His over-all infantry morale is probably as good as can be expected with the strategy he used. Which means his CV values will be 25% to 35% better then what your seeing now.

So your counter attacking now while he is still weak from the effects of General Winter was just the right thing to do. You need to win as many battles as you can while he is weak to beat down German morale.

Once June comes those easy counter attacks are going to be far and few atleast until later in 42 depending on how the summer goes for you and him.


I know and I'm worried about that. It's difficult to muster enough striking power to even overcome clearly Q-Ball's weakened flanks.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton
Very nice match you to are having.

Very even and only a handfull of minor mistakes by both players.


Thank you for reading and glad that you're finding the game interesting (and entertaining).

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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/25/2011 2:08:05 PM   
gingerbread


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How are your partisans doing? Are you dropping enough borscht and vodka (they need the empty bottles for Molotovs) to them?

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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/25/2011 2:38:53 PM   
BletchleyGeek


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quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

How are your partisans doing? Are you dropping enough borscht and vodka (they need the empty bottles for Molotovs) to them?


Nice that you ask about that. I basically neglected the Partisan aspect of things, it was Q-Ball who reminded me, when he complained that his security units were bored after months of garrisoning cities.

Now I have something like 300 airplanes devoted to that :)

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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/25/2011 3:18:48 PM   
Baelfiin


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your hard work on this aar is much appreciated BG.

How do you like to ue your guards once you can build corps? Do you start using them to form corps right away (2 guards div and one regular,) or do you start to form them with just regular dudes first?

I found that I lost several in clear weather turns of may/early june to German spoiling attacks, which has made me very very conservative with them ever since.

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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/25/2011 3:40:56 PM   
BletchleyGeek


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Baelfiin

your hard work on this aar is much appreciated BG.


Thank you, I also appreciate people reading, commenting and criticizing :)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Baelflin
How do you like to ue your guards once you can build corps? Do you start using them to form corps right away (2 guards div and one regular,) or do you start to form them with just regular dudes first?

I found that I lost several in clear weather turns of may/early june to German spoiling attacks, which has made me very very conservative with them ever since.


I don't have such a clear policy on that as I have with other aspects of the Red Army build up.

Tank Corps for sure start regular, since Guards Tank Brigades as rare as chicken teeth. But if for some reason, the Red God of War decides to award me with a couple of them, then I will surely build a Guards Tank Corps with them. The Morale bonus and the increased mobility it entails make such a motorized unit an unvaluable asset.

I also tend to build quite a few Motorized Bdes, not only because I feel better seeing that icon on my map, their TOE is interesting and have great mobility. They're great for putting them in Reserve Mode, as Total MP's vs. cost to reach hex is key (besides Leader initiative, but more this). Over time, they'll probably racking enough victories to be able to create at least one Guards Mech Corps.

Regarding Rifle Corps... it will depend a lot on the situation. If I need the Guards in the front since, for whatever reason, my unit density isn't nothing to write home about, then Rifle Corps will start being regulars. If I don't, then I go full after those.

In all cases I don't like letting my opponent to see where my Corps are. I always form them up well to the rear, and especially Motorized corps, spend a very long spell training to bring experience up.

Any advice on this - or comments on past experiences - are very welcomed :) I'm not very experienced playing the Soviet from late 1942 on.

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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/25/2011 3:56:59 PM   
Flaviusx


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I think the day of overwhelming Soviet blizzard offensives is gone. It's just much weaker now than it used to be. And every good German player is falling back and keeping his distance from the Red Army -- easier to do now than ever since they're gaining more territory than before.

I hear a lot of stuff on these forums about how the game is biased in favor of the Soviets. My own view is this patch is a gift to Axis players. We overcorrected, imo, and the game isn't really playing anything like historical anymore. Leningrad and Moscow are both falling regularly, there's the infamous Lvov opening, etc.

We've really gone out of our way to accomodate the German player base. Whether this actually resembles history is another matter.







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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/25/2011 4:42:52 PM   
BletchleyGeek


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
I think the day of overwhelming Soviet blizzard offensives is gone. It's just much weaker now than it used to be. And every good German player is falling back and keeping his distance from the Red Army -- easier to do now than ever since they're gaining more territory than before.

I hear a lot of stuff on these forums about how the game is biased in favor of the Soviets. My own view is this patch is a gift to Axis players. We overcorrected, imo, and the game isn't really playing anything like historical anymore. Leningrad and Moscow are both falling regularly, there's the infamous Lvov opening, etc.

We've really gone out of our way to accomodate the German player base. Whether this actually resembles history is another matter.


I see some truth in your latter statement regarding accomodating the German player base.

However, I also think things would get evened out by having much less unforgiving logistics, for *both* sides. While this would also impair the Soviet, but mostly in the latter part of the war, since in the first half he's playing "at home" so to speak.

The air war is also distorting things in ways which are subtle. We'll see what happens with clear weather and a massive VVS superiority. Even with all the damage Q-Ball did to my air industry, I think I'll be able to achieve total air superiority over the theater by no later than September 1942.

Then we have these über-modeled ground elements, whose performance, let's be honest, is completely out of whack.

Last, but not least, there's the very limited options to the non-phasing player to interdict the phasing player operations. All operational wargames I have come to appreciate have been either WEGO/RT or they are turn-based and provide with comprenhensive and flexible Reaction rules, that allow to maneuver in a limited manner the non-phasing player units.

My take is that we're at a transitional stage in WitE. I know Pavel is working hard on the logistics and the air model. Those two game mechanics need refining, they're being refined, and while that's under development, I will just live with the shortcomings of not having them, as long as the game keeps being an intellectual challenge.

This is key: one needs to both keep learning stuff and having some fun at some point in order to keep interest in the game. As long as I get this from WitE - along with the SUPERB support and feedback from devs & testers - I won't have one single reason to complain about the game.

Also people are starting to try really interesting ideas with the editor. Check TAIL_GUNNER idea on the Scenario & Modding section. It's not yet another "Deutschland Über Alles" involving unreasonable amounts of German motorized formation at the start of Barbarossa. The players are starting to have a better and more comprenhensive grasp on game mechanics, how do they interact and this means that sooner or later people will come with really good ideas about improving the WitE experience.

About historicity I think the point is moot, it's been discussed on these boards ad nauseam. I never expected a game - nor a reasonable academic historical simulation - to reproduce in a faithful way the processes. What I do expect are that the outcomes, while different, are plausible and within reason. But this takes us back to logistics (and Reaction rules for the non-phasing player) :)

So cheer up Flavio. Sooner or later Pavel will fix the logistics of the game, and we'll have a good laugh when one of our Axis opponents launches an offensive too much (and too far) ;)

EDIT: A couple things to make the point clearer, and noting other standing problems with WitE.

< Message edited by Bletchley_Geek -- 11/25/2011 4:47:43 PM >


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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/25/2011 4:47:31 PM   
Peltonx


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

I think the day of overwhelming Soviet blizzard offensives is gone. It's just much weaker now than it used to be. And every good German player is falling back and keeping his distance from the Red Army -- easier to do now than ever since they're gaining more territory than before.

I hear a lot of stuff on these forums about how the game is biased in favor of the Soviets. My own view is this patch is a gift to Axis players. We overcorrected, imo, and the game isn't really playing anything like historical anymore. Leningrad and Moscow are both falling regularly, there's the infamous Lvov opening, etc.

We've really gone out of our way to accomodate the German player base. Whether this actually resembles history is another matter.



I would agree with you, but TVD is raping me in our current game an I had the same defence as I am using with ease vs M60.

I think I know what hes doing. Hes got piles and piles of 1 cv armor and cav units (1 cv during blizzard) and about 1/2 of what I see normally for strong units.

He uses the strong units to open a crack in the line then ZOC's 8 to 10 german units along front lines. You can generally save 50% with counter attacks.

He does it again. Hes discovered an exploit that is really smart an is what cripples the German army.
Its not the zoc trap, but once a units surrenders it comes back and is filled up with the new replasements filtering back to front.

Sound fine right?

Noper once this starts your front line units receive zero as in no replasements for 3 months, because the pocketed units that come back 2 to 5 per turn suck up all the replasements, which in turn keeps your front line troops at Dec cv levels through February.

I am guessing the down side to this is hes using an insane amount of trucks and his aarmy will have zip for trucks in March.

But the German army will only have 2.3 million men by then and usless also.

I lov poeple who can think out side the box.

The day of overwhelming blizzards is very far from over.

Now that I have played vs this who cares about trucks and supplys tactic, I can easly defeat it. Trick is to start running the last turn of snow and not first turn of blizzard.

Its amazing how different poeples play style can be. I played 17 games and they are all different. There is always someone out there that finds some way to bend the rule set to their advantage.

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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 11/25/2011 4:52:48 PM   
BletchleyGeek


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton
I would agree with you, but TVD is raping me in our current game an I had the same defence as I am using with ease vs M60.

I think I know what hes doing. Hes got piles and piles of 1 cv armor and cav units (1 cv during blizzard) and about 1/2 of what I see normally for strong units.

He uses the strong units to open a crack in the line then ZOC's 8 to 10 german units along front lines. You can generally save 50% with counter attacks.

He does it again. Hes discovered an exploit that is really smart an is what cripples the German army.
Its not the zoc trap, but once a units surrenders it comes back and is filled up with the new replasements filtering back to front.


I wouldn't say that's an "exploit" Pelton, careful with that word, man :)

Could you (or TDV himself) explain precisely what these consists of? Is he infiltrating brigades taking advantage of the reduced MP costs to move from ZOC to ZOC for brigades and regiments?

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