Red Prince
Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011 From: Bangor, Maine, USA Status: offline
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Three attacks by the Germans this impulse, and I'm sure they won't all be considered "correct WiF behavior", but that's me. I like to try things which might create interesting opportunities: And the results: Attack on Rouen: Blitz, Fractional Odds .469 (Yes), Roll = 6 = */1B (ART destroyed, converted to Retreat) Attack on France [56, 30]: Blitz, Roll = 1 = 1/- (ENG destroyed, attackers disorganized) Attack on France [57, 32]: Assault, Fractional Odds .596 (No), Roll = 2 = 1/1 (INF Division destroyed, attackers gain the hex, but are disorganized) In all, 3 HQ units attempted to provide HQ Support, but all of them failed. The first attack, on Rouen, was a tough choice for the CW. The odds were 6.625:1, reduced by snow to 4.625:1 At 4:1, an Assault gives a 40% chance of repelling the attack, a 70% chance of disorganizing all of the attackers, and a 40% chance of losing both units At 4:1, a Blitz gives a 30% chance of repelling the attack, a 50% chance of disorganizing all of the attackers, and a 10% chance of losing both units At 5:1, an Assault gives a 30% chance of repelling the attack, a 50% chance of disorganizing all of the attackers, and a 50% chance of losing both units At 5:1, a Blitz gives a 10% chance of repelling the attack, a 30% chance of disorganizing all of the attackers, and a 30% chance of losing both units In all cases, there is a significant chance that units will be Shattered on a B or S result. Germany could change that to an R, hoping to kill of the remaining BEF defender, but there is going to be a base 60% chance for the turn to end after the next Allied impulse, which can be increased to 70% or even 80% if it seems the right thing to do. So, I chose a Blitz attack as the CW, giving HQ-I Gort the best chance to survive. This turned out to be the right decision (I think), since the same rolls on the Assault CRT would have killed both units. The German choice to retreat HQ-I Gort may be questionable. The reason for that choice was that it forces the CW to wait until next turn to pull him out of France (which might not happen if Germany gets to move first), and it forces the 7-4 MOT to either become a sacrifice or to move while OOS, opening up a hex next to Paris. As for the other two attacks, the Rolls are starting to even out. Low rolls for both of these mean that the Germans have 2 HQs disorganized. I was counting on at least one of them being available to Reorg units, but you take your chances. I actually thought I was going to have better odds against HQ-I Billotte, but it wouldn't have mattered with that roll. I don't know if you'll agree, but as I see it, no real harm was done. Of course, you are always welcome to disagree. ----- Edit: The reason I decided to go after Gort instead of the 7-4 MOT is that it was actually a better odds attack, since I could use the German navy . . . and because the ART could have added his bombardment to the MOT, couldn't he?
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< Message edited by Red Prince -- 12/3/2011 7:21:11 PM >
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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it! -Lazarus Long, RAH
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