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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/24/2011 4:56:10 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

As a probably too frequent armchair general (that's a good one, Christopher), I just stopped by this morning before heading off over the river and through the woods (to Sedan? the east side of the Ardennes? Leningrad? Gomel???) to wish all the other armchair popcorn munching WiF fans a Happy Holidays, and especially the gracious host of this thread. Being sick in early December should pay off in ... perfect health for Christmas, I hope.

Well, not perfect, but I'm getting there. And I do apologize for the lack of progress the last few days. I'm taking a few days off to simply relax. I should be back on it in another day or two. And thank you for the Holiday wishes, before I forget.

quote:

But can't we be more like armchair chiefs-of-staff? You can't win a war (or develop the greatest WWII computer wargame ever) surrounded by yes-men, just ask Hitler's ghost in Hell how that worked out for him. And how do you win a wargame played solitaire? By playing each side so well that the result comes down to the last die roll on the last turn. Red Prince definitely knows his way around a wargame....the only tactical land move I have looked at on a hex-by-hex by basis in this game is the Italian attack on Tangier, and that one was brilliant. I suspect most of the land moves have been similar.

I don't know if brilliant is the word for it, but I've tried to be creative, at the least. For the defensive side of things, I've relied heavily on advice and tricks I've learned by taking the advice in this thread, so again I'll thank you all -- even for the conflicting opinions.

quote:

As for 4-5 turns in 5-6 weeks

This I want to set straight . . . when I first started testing in April and May, before I took on other responsibilities, I was getting through about a turn each day, playing about 8-10 hours each day. The reasons it has taken so long to get this far right now are multiple: first, I was very sick for the first 3 or 4 weeks, and couldn't put in more than 2-3 hours a day; second, It takes about twice as long to get through a turn when I'm documenting each action (and sometimes each die roll) for possible use if a bug shows up, as well as creating the images for this forum; and third, I've been holding off at times, waiting to see what the "armchair Generals" have to say before making some of my decisions. This, of course, adds a good deal of time to it. And, finally, I spend a lot more time thinking about things than I would (probably) in a real game.

I imagine that you could get through a standard Solitaire 36 turn game in about a month, if you played maybe 4 hours a day and didn't spend tons of time doing extra planning. This is less time than a "normal" over-the-table game would take, I think, but more than you'd see at WiFCon.

quote:

A thought on the current lending BP bug....it must apply only to overseas transport right now, or Germany couldn't lend to Italy? That would preclude US loans to the CW as well, but creates a situation that could be playtested in MWiF, and I'm not sure is answered explicitly in the paper rules either. Loans must go to the recipient's home country, and for (at least) once in the rules, this is explicitly defined for the CW as "Britain" (I guess no deliveries to Glasgow or Belfast then, ha).....but what happens if "Britain", (obviously the entire UK would have to be used here) is itself conquered? The CW of various Home Countries would have to pick a new, single Home Country for BP loan deliveries? This has more explicit implications in the reinforcement rules (multiple CPs, Pilots, etc), but would be good to check in the BP loan/delivery rule too. I would think this could be a slightly more delicate bit of programming for the CW countries with rules exceptions a bit different than say for the French.


Yes, it does apply only to overseas new trade agreements. There is no trouble shipping the BP from Japan to the USA, but that is a "mandatory" trade agreement. All new agreements are considered to be "temporary". I'm not certain about this, but I do believe the UK conquest issue has be checked in regards to BP shipping.

quote:

[So in this game US aid to the West will have to be limited to Repairing Ships, if that can fit into US Entry strategy (perfect for the French pirates, who will now otherwise never build new units again, unless they can capture a red factory somewhere, creating some obvious strategic goals for the Allies later on). And Russia is severely handicapped by this bug so I would begin directing CW builds and on-map strategy to a major expedition to the Middle East to at least get resources to Russia overland even though Russia is rather resource rich usually. With saved oil at least a big resource bank could be built up in Siberia. I hope the Russians build some convoy points for the Caspian Sea for their own Caucasus oil at least ... It seems somehow slightly unfair to even road-test a full-on 1941 Barbarossa.]


Orm and I tested Barbarossa successfully, but it will undergo more testing in the near future.

Re-reading what you wrote above, I see what you mean . . . in this game it would be unfair to test it . . . potentially true, but it might not come to that. Barbarossa '42 may be more likely. It all depends on Tangier and Suez, really, and how quickly (or if) they can be captured.

quote:

I like finishing the Graf Zeppelin for Germany, but add one additional wrinkle of building both of the CVPs in the German force pool in 1939, as they suffer from class matching problems just as the CW does and their 1940 CVPs can't be used on the 'Zep till 1941 or later. A CV at sea with no planes in the Reserve Pool back at home is a very fragile BP investment, but then the whole build of the GZ isn't actually a very big threat to the Royal Navy once you sail it. Finishing more, hmmm. I do like building out the German construction pool once Barbarossa is well under way. As the Japanese I would even ask the Germans to do this as part of the price for an attack on Siberia. Laying down new ships is a much tougher decision and a route I think I would only go in a game with a robust Sea Lion as the Axis grand strategy of choice. (And yes, you have to keep playing after the UK is conquered. Wake the US giant too early and the Allies can recover from even that as long as they don't fail a morale check - isn't that from some other wargame?).


I think that GURPS (copyrighted name) has morale checks, but that is role-playing, not war games. As for this game, since I'm running the full 54 turns of an extended game, the Allies will certainly have time to reclaim what was theirs.

quote:

In the East Med right now in this game, 10 cruisers vs an Italian NAV seems like not a good match. But a single NAV won't be able to break through the AA fire that well, and those cruisers should head out there with whatever reinforcements Gibraltar can add in regardless. The advanced trick is for the CW to win a big surprise point swing and then if the Axis smugly picks an air combat, use all of the surprise points to increase AA fire. A little trickier to pull of in a solitaire game, I would perhaps use a die roll, or let each side in the game get away with this at least once (other times this happens when surface assets such as TRS need protection). My usual ftf opponent does this to me every time and my naval bombers pay the price. With 2 Italian NAVs coming in next turn, this is why the two critical builds for the CW in J/F 1940 are the Alexander HQ and their first FTR-3. Hopefully the CW can pull the American Brewster Buffalo or P-40C when building FTR2 as well. Controlling the air is the first step to controlling the sea (new in WWII). Controlling the sea is the first step to controlling the land. Controlling the land wins the game.

I'm glad those builds found some approval.

The Italians do also have a good sized fleet in the E. Med, so it is a risk for the CW either way -- but one worth taking, probably. The flip side of what you mention, though, is that if Italy gets a large Surprise Point advantage, they can bump up the 2-factor NAV into something much more dangerous to the CW. It's a risk, but the CW should probably get it done now, before those new NAVs enter the game.

As I mentioned earlier in the post, I intend to get back to this in a few more days, and I'll take most/all of what has been said into account. I'm considering the Liner evacuating the 5-3 INF issue very carefully. Italy might be willing to let the CW "get away with it" at this point. And since there is little Shore Bombardment protection for that unit, it might be the best option. As many have noted, Spain is practically overrun already. I'm even considering the possibility of moving a land unit out of Gibraltar in order to rail Franco there (if it looks at all possible). But this impulse needs to be Naval, and he may not last until the next Land impulse.

Oh, the "get away with it" trade-off would be letting the Italian TRS do what they want to do -- get troops to Tangier. Not really in the CW interest, but I'm very curious from the last game exactly how much better the attack could be against Gibraltar with troops there.

I'll let you know in a day or two what actually happens.

Until then, Happy Holidays, to one and all.

-Aaron

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 12/24/2011 5:03:49 PM >

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Post #: 601
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/24/2011 5:38:21 PM   
brian brian

 

Posts: 3191
Joined: 11/16/2005
Status: offline 		ahh, lots of good news. Once I base any Italian SUBs out of the Med, I can easily forget to move them out of port, as when you make Italian decisions, you look at the Mediterranean Sea (and on a computer screen...). A big key to World in Flames is to have each and every unit be doing something useful at all times, and that can be a challenge. A solitaire game of WiF using a computer can take me over a year to get to 1942. I hope in 2012 I can play the game again.

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Post #: 602
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/28/2011 8:35:51 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline 		Still haven't decided what I'm going to do about the Med situation yet, but you'll find out tomorrow. I promise to get a few more impulses in tomorrow morning. Something to see before the new year begins.
-----
Edit: Currently reviewing all the posts since the previous "action" to see what I might forget to take into account. New posts shortly.

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 12/29/2011 10:52:26 AM >

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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/29/2011 12:47:28 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline 		I've been looking more closely at the situation with the TRS options, and I've discovered a slight problem: in order to have Shore Bombardment factors in place for an attack on Bilbao and some getting ready to defend Gibraltar/attack Tangier, I would end up having to leave another TRS undefended if I want to pick up that MOT from the UK. So, instead, I sent it to the Cape Basin to grab the TERR from Cape Town (also picking up the Canadian MIL with another). The Spanish TRS is now in the Mozambique Channel, ready to enter Bombay for use either to reinforce Egypt or to relocate Wavell next turn.

The final sealift option for the CW, the Liner, I've decided on evacuation of the 5-3 INF from Barcelona to the Bay of Biscay. From there it can debark into Spanish Sahara next impulse. The reason for this decision is that Franco cannot survive the next German impulse (except by an extremely lucky roll), and even with the doubling for mountain terrain and the minimal Shore Bombardment available, the Germans can easily get a 4:1 or 5:1 attack on Barcelona. Personally, I think the unit would be better saved for later support of the CW efforts in Morocco and near Gibraltar (or in Gibraltar).

This means the Italians are going to have to "co-operate" with the CW evacuation, but I'm willing to do that, and maybe not even as a trade-off. The Italian fleet is stronger than the one Spain put to sea, but it also has vital Shore Bombardment factors that need to be saved for an attempt on Gibraltar later this turn.

Additionally, if it wants to take advantage of the good Ground Strike rolls on Bilbao, Germany needs to take that city this turn, and hopefully in a single attack. That means that it needs to reposition its forces.

Perhaps a poor choice, but it's going to be done.
-----
As for the E. Med, I haven't sailed the CW fleet yet, but it is about evenly matched with the Italian fleet currently in the sea area. I'll let you know how that goes in the next post.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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Post #: 604
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/29/2011 1:19:08 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline 		Well, the RN tried to get rid of those offensive Italians in the W. Med, but to no avail. The Italians earned 4 surprise points, and spent them all to avoid the combat entirely. If their luck holds out, the Germans will be in Tangier next impulse.




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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/29/2011 1:59:47 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline 		Trying to figure a way out of Nationalist defeat in China, it looks like it's time to create some Hero stacks.

The fine weather, and the proximity of HQ units (Japanese) to the front lines made it difficult to find a defense that would prevent units from ending up out of supply and/or heartland cities from falling to the enemy. I've included both "before" and "after" images here to show you what the options were. There really wasn't any way to continue the retreat effectively (I think), and trying double-stacks in the mountains would allow Japanese units to outflank them.

I think this might have a chance to delay the Japanese by an impulse or two, but it is clear now that Nationalist China is pretty much doomed. If even one city can hold out until next turn (most likely that would be Kunming), there is a 4-2 INF coming in to help out, so even an impulse or two of delay improves the odds of China (as a whole) surviving a little longer.

Anyway, this is what I've done, and I'm sure there is probably a mistake here somewhere, but I really don't see what else I can do.




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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/29/2011 2:19:23 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline 		The Communists, however, have decided to teach the Japanese another lesson, using all 5 of the Soviet land moves to move the lines to the northeast. This allows an attack to be made on the foolhardy Fukuoka MIL that moved while OOS into Yenan last impulse. It also (if it works) will put the Communist CAV back into supply, though it will remain disorganized.

What this means for the Japanese, is that they better finish off the Nationalists quickly, or they may have to deal with a breakout in Northern China!




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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/29/2011 2:26:22 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline 		The only attack for the Allies this impulse:




And the results:

Attack on Yenan; Assault, Roll = 5+1 = 6 = */2S

This actually could have been a disaster. When I was looking at the odds, I read the chart wrong. I thought it would be only a 30% chance of Mao becoming disorganized, but it was actually 40%. By the time I realized this, I was already committed to the attack. Luckily, the roll was high enough to smash the Japanese MIL and retake the city for Communist China.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 12/29/2011 2:27:38 PM >

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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/29/2011 2:39:46 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline 		The allies almost got lucky with the weather roll, but just missed. A roll of '2' would have put a bit of mud in the German boots, not to mention the assault on Nationalist China. Instead, the weather roll was just a little too high:




Attachment (1)

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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/29/2011 3:14:45 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline 		I didn't give Italy a free ride with its transports. I let them through the E. Med without interception, but I tried to intercept in the W. Med . . . and failed (rolled an '8'). After Italy chose not to initiate combat, the CW gave it a shot, and rolled a miraculous '1' which made the RN Admirals feel certain they would get a shot at the transports carrying German troops to Tangier.

One problem, though: Italy rolled a '2' and the transports weren't included in the combat (see below). End result: 1 x Damaged/Aborted Italian CA, and another Aborted . . . and Italy destroyed 2 more CL (Spanish this time). The remaining Spanish ships decided to take off for Gibraltar. Even if they could manage to include only the box with the TRS in it, there was also an Italian FTR in that box, and it would now take a miracle to get the Surprise Points necessary to not only choose the combat type, but also to increase columns enough to take out either or both TRS units.

Another failure for the Royal Navy in the W. Med, I'm afraid. (And no, I am not cheating in favor of the Italians ). Just ask Orm about his attempt to take Gibraltar at EuroWiFCon a few years ago . . . what was it, 17 attacks and he still didn't get it? Sometimes the dice just don't like you.




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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/29/2011 4:31:22 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline 		Before I get to the battles of this impulse, here's a look at the Japanese effort to encircle the sad little Nationalist Chinese army. It's still going to be a few more impulses before they can put together high-odds attacks, but it looks like the Nationalists will be out of the game before the autumn arrives.




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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/29/2011 4:43:33 PM   
composer99


Posts: 2923
Joined: 6/6/2005
From: Ottawa, Canada
Status: offline 		If the Japanese conquer Chungking & Chengtu before the end of summer, surrendering China should be considered while the Japanese Army is still deep within the interior: Rendering Japan neutral and forced to redeploy the Army on combined impulses in fall/winter weather (or DoW someone they aren't ready to fight) as well as having some of the best units (the 6-3 MAR, 8-3 INF and, if in play the Tokyo MIL if memory serves) return to the reserves, and bump up USE a little (although in 1940 this could backfire badly if the US pulls bad chits).

Alternatively, the Communists can try to hold out in the North and the Nationalists around Kunming (if the Japanese don't crush it on their way out of the Szechuan) and make nuisances of themselves until the Japanese land forces (especially the good units) are pulled out to deal with the Americans, CW, and USSR.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/29/2011 5:01:00 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline 		Only one Axis attack this impulse, on Madrid:




And the results:

Attack on Madrid; Assault, Roll = 3-1 = 2 = 1/1 (INF Destroyed, attackers disorganized)

I did have a CW LND in range to provide Ground Support, but I finally decided against it because there wasn't a safe place to land afterwards. I figured that Franco was probably doomed anyway, so why risk losing yet another LND in a futile effort to increase the chance of disorganizing the German units. As you can see, HQ-I von Bock is close by, so even if disorganized, these units could easily be brought back into play . . . and then the LND would have to find a very remote part of Spain to hide away for the rest of the turn.

Franco successfully provided himself with HQ Support, which I realized was kind of pointless after the fact. It brought the odds down from 6:1 to 5:1, which makes no difference on the Assault CRT, and that's the one I chose for this attack. Two reasons for that: there's a 60% chance of disorganizing the Germans, forcing them to use up another HQ for reorganization, and the Blitz table at 5:1 still only gives Franco a 30% chance to survive . . . but disorganized for the HQ Support. Without using it, he's got a 20% chance to survive on the 6:1 Blitz table, and only a 20% chance of disorganizing the enemy. So, Assault it is, and he's a'gonna die. The best he can hope for is to take a few of the enemy with him and make Germany use up one of its HQ units.

However, even though Madrid was lost, all of this talk paid off in the end. The decision was the right one, and HQ-I von Bock is going to have to use his reorganization points to get the Panzers moving again.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 12/29/2011 5:02:17 PM >

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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Post #: 613
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/29/2011 5:25:01 PM   
Red Prince


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From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline 		In the end, not only did von Bock reorganize units, but von Leeb did, too, bringing 2 more expendable MIL units into the Bilbao assault plans. 3 LND and a FTR were rebased into the area, and Italy started moving its own FTRs toward Gibraltar.

I really don't know what to do with the CW this next impulse. It was supposed to be a land impulse, but there's not much to be done. Germany has Tangier fortified with 11 factors doubled to 22, with an Italian stack doubling to 10 in the mountain hex to the SE. That includes an AA unit (which means 14 factors if the CW uses its MECH against it).

As for the surrender of China, it could really backfire significantly. The Communists can probably hold out for another 6 months, at least (if not more), and there are actually some TERR units from Korea and Manchuria within reach of a few Soviet cities. The USSR has completely abandoned Siberia to bolster the German border, and while there would be some reserves coming into the game if Japan DOWed early, they probably wouldn't be enough. Besides, a DOW on the Soviets only offers a 70% chance of a single chit. In 1940, that's not very good. It would be better to force this issue in 1941, if at all. Also, the USA doesn't get the extra chit per turn if China surrenders voluntarily, so there isn't much to gain from it, I think.

Impulse #6 is up next, but I'm getting tired again, so it will have to wait until tomorrow, at least.

Hope you've enjoyed the (brief) look at what happened during these last two impulses.

-Aaron

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/29/2011 6:51:28 PM   
Centuur


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From: Hoorn (NED).
Status: offline 		About China, I wouldn't want to surrender at this point. The Communists still have got a good base to work from. Also, there are still to many cities (especially in the northern part of China) which aren't Japanese controlled. If you surrender, the Japanese haven't got to roll for US entry for those.

The Japanese have to get further into northern China to eliminate the Communists, after they are done with the Nationalist.The farther the Japanese units are in North China, the more difficult it is going to be to get them out of China, if the Chinese do decide to give up. By the way: it looks like you might want to hasten the cities taken by the Japanese next turn (not this one, since the Communist CAV is disorganised) by starting a slow withdrawal towards Lan-Chow. The Commies don't want to get surrounded, don't they?

I would suggest surrender when Lan-Chow is the only remaining Chinese factory city in Chinese control. Than those Japanese MIL and Reserve units will disappear. I suggest the first turn of 1941 to surrender China (higher US entry effect), but take at that time also into account the US entry position. When it is going to get into the war soon, don't surrender China.

The USSR has 5 Siberian reserves units appearing after a Japanese DoW. They should be able to make things for the Japanese difficult in Siberia. the Japanese TERR units can simply be held at bay by putting the reserves in the threathened cities. Also, activating the USSR by Japan means he can build MIL units. Now isn't that nice, all those cheap unit to throw in front of the Germans or Japanese when they attack? And the Japanese HQ's and high combat factor units are in China. It takes at least a turn to rail them out of China into positions to attack the USSR.

For the CW the choice is easy: Bilbao should be covered with shore bombardment factors, so the Germans are going to be in a lot of trouble if they attack the place. No way a conquest of Spain is going to happen... Also they should attack the Italian Navy in the Western Med. The Italians cannot afford to leave the place, since Tangiers is than out of supply. I suggest taking a naval impulse and sail a fleet into the Western Med. Be as agressive as possible towards that rather small Italian fleet (or are there more Italians that those shown here?). Also ground strike the units in Tangiers. By doing so, you are reducing a possible attack on Gibraltar this turn and also might lower the defense of Tangiers if the Italians are leaving the Western Med (you just have to pound those spaghetti-eaters heavy enough...). Also: without a fleet present in the Western Med, those units in Tangier are isolated and will not get reorganised end of this turn.
By the way: always look for attacks on the Italian TRS...

< Message edited by Centuur -- 12/29/2011 7:07:32 PM >

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/29/2011 7:17:05 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Trying to figure a way out of Nationalist defeat in China, it looks like it's time to create some Hero stacks.

The fine weather, and the proximity of HQ units (Japanese) to the front lines made it difficult to find a defense that would prevent units from ending up out of supply and/or heartland cities from falling to the enemy. I've included both "before" and "after" images here to show you what the options were. There really wasn't any way to continue the retreat effectively (I think), and trying double-stacks in the mountains would allow Japanese units to outflank them.

I think this might have a chance to delay the Japanese by an impulse or two, but it is clear now that Nationalist China is pretty much doomed. If even one city can hold out until next turn (most likely that would be Kunming), there is a 4-2 INF coming in to help out, so even an impulse or two of delay improves the odds of China (as a whole) surviving a little longer.

Anyway, this is what I've done, and I'm sure there is probably a mistake here somewhere, but I really don't see what else I can do.




Pulling back the Nationalist Chinese from the mountains was wrong. Instead the Communist Chinese should have helped out by moving between the 3-4 and 5-3. The Kunming Warlord should have moved NW to form the tail end of the defensive line in the mountains. The 3-1 should have left Chungking and entered the mountains to its SE. Then the 3-3 could have moved 3 hexes NW to hold the river line. The Chengtu warlord moves NE to put the 2 Japanese units (5-3 and 4-4) out of supply. The 5-3 moves west 1 hex, and the 5-2 moves SW one hex.

This would give the Chinese a fairly good defensive position for the next impulse and since the advanced Japanese units are temporarily OOS (that can be corrected) but more importantly locked into Chinese ZOCs, they aren't moving more than 1 hex.

All the mountain terrain doubles the Chinese defensive factors. So does sitting behind a river line. By retreating to clear hexes, the Chinese are much move vulnerable. By pulling away from the Japanese, you gave them much more flexibility for arranging their units and setting up good attacks.

---

In general, you have a tendency to run away from enemy units rather than hold a good defensive line, making the enemy fight for every hex on your terms. This is a common weakness for new players. They start by holding a defensive line, get chewed up by strong enemy attacks, and then they are leery about holding a defensive line in the future. Isn't there a song lyric about "know when to hold them, know when to run away"? Well, probably not quite those words. Look at all those mountain hexes with rivers and alpine hexsides the Chinese have given up. And now they have decided to fight to the death in clear terrain?

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Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 616
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/29/2011 7:56:07 PM   
Red Prince


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From: Bangor, Maine, USA
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quote:

In general, you have a tendency to run away from enemy units rather than hold a good defensive line, making the enemy fight for every hex on your terms. This is a common weakness for new players. They start by holding a defensive line, get chewed up by strong enemy attacks, and then they are leery about holding a defensive line in the future. Isn't there a song lyric about "know when to hold them, know when to run away"? Well, probably not quite those words. Look at all those mountain hexes with rivers and alpine hexsides the Chinese have given up. And now they have decided to fight to the death in clear terrain?


I actually ran more calculations than I usually do, and if I had left them in the mountains in single stacks, at least two of them would have been destroyed in attacks. Likewise, the move between the 5-3 and 3-4 wouldn't have acheived what you say. The 3-4 would still have been in supply and could move back a hex and then forward again in order to put the forward units back in supply. They, in turn, could have made a (somewhat) risky attack on either the 2-3 or 3-1 Nationalist units, breaking open that front.

Or, once back in supply, they could both move forward into the hexes between them. This would put them OOS, but only long enough for one of two things to happen: either the Chinese retreat to ZOC them from entering Chengtu, or they don't. If they don't, Chengtu gets taken, and even though OOS and disorganized, that eliminates the Warlord unit, opening another hole.

I hope what I just said makes sense. I find it hard to visualize what you said as a whole (without seeing it actually on the map), and I'm not sure I understand everything you described as a full defense.

My assessment was that one way or another, the Chinese were going to lose 2-3 units if they didn't double-stack, and that would allow the Japanese to flank anyway. At the moment, I still do have the river boundary.

I know you are more experienced, but you should also remember that I am an aggressive player who is willing to risk 3:1 or 4:1 attacks (sometimes even less than that) in order to break a solid line. I tried to take that into account when creating this retreat.
-----
Edit: Also, if I understand correctly, several of the moves you suggest would have allowed the Japanese to put a few Chinese units out of Supply. I'm going to try to "simulate" what you described in an edited version of the above images.

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 12/29/2011 8:02:10 PM >

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Post #: 617
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/29/2011 8:21:19 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline 		Black arrows are the moves you suggested. Blue arrows are the moves the Japanese would make to counter. Orange boxes indicate units that would end up either disorganized or OOS. And, the 2 circled units in green would most likely be killed off by the Japanese in attacks.



-----
Edit: I may have missed a unit or two in the south being OOS, but units destroyed by these attacks would put the Chinese in almost the same situation as they are in now. The purpose of moving the Kunmind Warlord to the hex between the Alpine hexsides was to force the Japanese either to mount a large force to destroy him, buying time, or to make them go around him, also buying time for Kunming to get the 4-2 INF reinforcement next turn.

Also, this is only one set of options that could be used to destroy Nationalist units. The unit replacing the 3-3 would also have been a fine target for the Japanese.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 12/29/2011 8:30:23 PM >

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Post #: 618
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/29/2011 8:38:13 PM   
Red Prince


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Before I get to the battles of this impulse, here's a look at the Japanese effort to encircle the sad little Nationalist Chinese army. It's still going to be a few more impulses before they can put together high-odds attacks, but it looks like the Nationalists will be out of the game before the autumn arrives.




With this setup, the 3-2 MIL stack can move into Chengtu, the 3-1 GARR moves SE, the 3-3 stack takes its place, and the 5-3 stack moves into Chungking. Chungking can only be attacked across river hexsides that way, but even from 4 hexes, the Japanese probably can't get enough units there to make the attack next impulse. As I see it, my strategy has bought the Chinese at least 2 impulses before either of these two cities can be attacked in force.

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Post #: 619
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/29/2011 9:12:32 PM   
Orm


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From: Sweden
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quote:

Isn't there a song lyric about "know when to hold them, know when to run away"? Well, probably not quite those words.


Could that be from "The Gambler" with Kenny Rogers? The song has a similar line.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6q2mFiN7GIc


Sorry for the off topic.

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Post #: 620
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/29/2011 9:16:25 PM   
Red Prince


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From: Bangor, Maine, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

quote:

Isn't there a song lyric about "know when to hold them, know when to run away"? Well, probably not quite those words.


Could that be from "The Gambler" with Kenny Rogers? The song has a similar line.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6q2mFiN7GIc


Sorry for the off topic.

"Know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away . . . and know when to run."

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Post #: 621
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/30/2011 12:41:35 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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From: Honolulu, Hawaii
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Black arrows are the moves you suggested. Blue arrows are the moves the Japanese would make to counter. Orange boxes indicate units that would end up either disorganized or OOS. And, the 2 circled units in green would most likely be killed off by the Japanese in attacks.



-----
Edit: I may have missed a unit or two in the south being OOS, but units destroyed by these attacks would put the Chinese in almost the same situation as they are in now. The purpose of moving the Kunmind Warlord to the hex between the Alpine hexsides was to force the Japanese either to mount a large force to destroy him, buying time, or to make them go around him, also buying time for Kunming to get the 4-2 INF reinforcement next turn.

Also, this is only one set of options that could be used to destroy Nationalist units. The unit replacing the 3-3 would also have been a fine target for the Japanese.

I would have moved the 2-2 Kunming militia NW (every unit has to earn its portion of rice).

The Japanese 5-3 moving east towards Ankang would be moving out of supply and become disorganized. This would leave the attack on the 2-3 Chengtu Warlord as 14.5:4. The attack on the 5-2 Warlord would be 33:10 (if I counted the strength of the units that are not immediately visible correctly).

As the Chinese I would welcome these attacks. Both of these odds calculations assume that Japan throws the HQ's into the attacks. Even if only one of them fails, the Japanese will be hard pressed to create strong attacks for the rest of the turn.

The Japanese 5-3 moving SW towards Kunming and the 5-4 moving due west would both be out of supply after they move. If the 8-4-3 HQ gets disorganized, they won't be going anywhere. Putting the 5-4 OOS can probably be avoided if there are moveable units under the 6-3 marine.

Once the Japanese HQ's are disorganized any hopes of a flanking or oozing advance will be difficult to do.

===

My main point here is that with the units in the mountains the aggregate defensive strength for the Chinese is doubled. I think of the 5-2 in the mountains as if it were a 10-2. Moving it to a clear hex, cuts it ability to defend off at the knees.

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Post #: 622
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/30/2011 6:03:26 AM   
Red Prince


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From: Bangor, Maine, USA
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quote:

My main point here is that with the units in the mountains the aggregate defensive strength for the Chinese is doubled. I think of the 5-2 in the mountains as if it were a 10-2. Moving it to a clear hex, cuts it ability to defend off at the knees.

True enough, but stacked with the 5-3, as it is, in the clear hex, the Japanese were unable to move their slow troops close enough to make an attack on it. This buys one impulse. The next move, into Chungking, gives the same effect as the mountain hex -- halving attacker values instead of doubling the defenders -- plus gives an extra -1 on the die roll for a multi-stack factory. This should hopefully buy a second impulse.

And, yes, there was an ENG under the MAR that could keep at least the 5-4 Japanese unit in supply, I think. I'd have to run it to see it properly. I've always been good with math, but I never was able to play a game of chess in my head, and that's basically what I'm trying to do here with these hypothetical situations.

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Post #: 623
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/30/2011 11:31:37 AM   
Red Prince


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From: Bangor, Maine, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

For the CW the choice is easy: Bilbao should be covered with shore bombardment factors, so the Germans are going to be in a lot of trouble if they attack the place. No way a conquest of Spain is going to happen... Also they should attack the Italian Navy in the Western Med. The Italians cannot afford to leave the place, since Tangiers is than out of supply. I suggest taking a naval impulse and sail a fleet into the Western Med. Be as agressive as possible towards that rather small Italian fleet (or are there more Italians that those shown here?). Also ground strike the units in Tangiers. By doing so, you are reducing a possible attack on Gibraltar this turn and also might lower the defense of Tangiers if the Italians are leaving the Western Med (you just have to pound those spaghetti-eaters heavy enough...). Also: without a fleet present in the Western Med, those units in Tangier are isolated and will not get reorganised end of this turn.
By the way: always look for attacks on the Italian TRS...

The CW fleet may be large, but it is not endless.

Units need to be stationed in the North Sea, the Bay of Biscay and Cape St. Vincent (to protect Convoys and provide Shore Bombardment for Bilbao and Gibraltar). A fleet is already in the E. Med, and small fleets totaling about 8-10 ships are still stationed in the near- to far-East to respond to any Japanese surprise attacks (hoping for a shot at TRS) that might come. I don't think that is an unreasonable amount of CLs to station away from the current action. All of the ships in Gibraltar are disorganized from failed attacks on the Italians in the W. Med. I have 5 CA in Port Said that could possibly get there, but would have to fight through the E. Med first, and another 5 rounding Africa to rejoin the main fleet.

The point here is that I can't do everything I'm asked to do with the CW fleet (by you or by me in my role as Grand Admiral). Bad luck in the W. Med has made it difficult for the CW. There must come a point when I stop throwing "adequate" forces at the Italians and wait for the opportunity to throw "unbeatable" forces at them.

The other point is that there reaslly aren't any ships with range and movement points available to get into a high enough sea box to gain the advantage in the W. Med.

There are still a few ports in France that Germany has not yet taken in its rush to get troops to the Spanish border. I've considered sending the Montreal MIL into one of these ports to be an annoyance to the Germans, forcing them to pull back some frontline troops, but that would put another transport at potential risk.

I know the CW is a very lonely nation to play in the early game -- until the USSR and USA are into the war -- and I think that perhaps the 6 weeks I've been working on these 5 turns may be creating a bias toward a more aggressive CW playing style than would normally be expected. Granted, the aggressive Axis play has been somewhat overwhelming in Europe and China -- possibly more so than in most games, but what can really be done about it until another major power enters the game?

If the CW strips a fleet in order to try something offensive rather than defensive, the Axis can adjust and strike hard somewhere else. I think that the US Entry Option to Repair Western Allied Ships is going to have to become a priority very soon.

I also want to remind everyone that Lend Lease to the Western Allies is Option 27 and to the USSR is Option 30. To this point in the game, the US has not had the ability to choose either yet, so that bug in the game is not actually doing any harm to either the CW or the USSR -- yet.

What it comes down to, is that a) I screwed up the CW Naval Unit placement at the beginning of the game, b) I'm a better player on the offensive than on the defensive, c) despite early US Entry being very high, things are now evening out, d) I've made more mistakes that hurt the Allied effort than I have that hurt the Axis effort, and e) overall, the die rolls have been to the advantage of the Axis.

Take special note of d) above. While this is a very public game (being an on-going AAR), I don't expect this is necessarily unusual in a game of WiF. Once side or the other is going to make more mistakes. And, if the other side recognizes them, it's going to take advantage of them.
-----
This started as an explanation of why I don't know exactly what to do with the CW, but I'd like to hear some thoughts on the other things I brought up as well. Since I've only ever played one Barbarossa game against a real opponent (Orm), I don't know if my perceptions are correct.

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 12/30/2011 11:36:10 AM >

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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Post #: 624
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/30/2011 12:17:00 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline 		Using the "Units in Game" form, I edited this image together, so that you could see exactly what I have available -- as well as where the units all are at the moment.

This list only includes units that are currently in port (naval) or on land (air/land), and that are not currently disorganized. For clarity, I have also edited out Convoy Points in port and Oil Point markers.

The CW has 25 naval units available, but they are a varied combination of ship types, nationalities, and in numerous different locations. Additionally, some are very limited in either Range or Movement Points. The two CVL in Plymouth are pretty much useless, since they don't have any CVP.

There are 30 land units available to the CW. Most of the units in Southeast Asia cannot help out in Egypt due to non-cooperation. Those that can do not have transport available yet. When/if it becomes available, I can move some TERR units to India as garrisons, and then move the Indian troops to Egypt -- if there is time left for that. I don't want to leave India with too low a garrison value. Calcutta, and Bombay both need to have units in them (or next to them), or there is a risk of a Partisan showing up and destroying a useful factory.

There are only 5 available aircraft at the moment, and they are all needed where they are. In addition to these, there is a disorganized LND in the UK (failed Strategic Bombing), a disorganized NAV in Gibraltar (failed attempt in W. Med), and 5 CVP at sea. Of these 5, only one is a Class-2 . . . the other 4 are all Class-1 aircraft. Two CVP are on ships in Cape St. Vincent (on the way to the Med), and the others are guarding the North Sea. CW air units have killed off some German air units, but have overall failed miserably. With limited BP, and a demand for land units, it's been very difficult to find the spare BP to build any new FTR, LND, or even CVP units.

It's still the first year of the war, and it is not going well for the Alies (perhaps history does repeat itself). Rather than expending more resources, I think the best option is to let Wavell defend Egypt as long as he can, maintain the resistance in Gibraltar, and not try to do anything fancy. The CW needs to build up air power before it can dominate with its sea power.
-----
Switching point of view, I've started plans in motion to attempt a German invasion of the Azores when it comes time to DOW Portugal.
-----
Switching back, it's a very large empire to protect, and the Mean Green Giant is still asleep, and Comrade Joe has his own agenda -- which unlike the actual history books say -- is to use up most of his actions to assist the faltering Chinese.




Attachment (1)

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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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Post #: 625
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/30/2011 12:25:31 PM   
Centuur


Posts: 8802
Joined: 6/3/2011
From: Hoorn (NED).
Status: offline 		There are still CW controlled ships in the W.Med, are they? So start a fight, by disorganising a ship. From RAW:

You don’t need to have moved a unit into the sea area in the impulse
to initiate combat and you can still pick an area even if you fought an
interception combat there.
Turn the chosen unit face down. You only need to turn a unit facedown
to initiate the combat, not to fight each round in the combat.

The trick when playing the CW is to send fleets into a sea area where there is an Italian or German Fleet at that point, or where the Italians might send the TRS and stay there, initiating combat every combat phase, whenever a Italian or German fleet is present. Simply don't abort as the CW, except when fighting against impossible odds. The CW fleet is huge, compared to the combined fleet of the Italians and the Germans, so it can absorb losses more easily than the Euroaxis. A fleet in a sea area can initiate combat every impulse (even during the enemy impulses). You can only fight one time per impulse (so if the Axis initiated one, the allies can't do so also in the Axis impulse). As the CW, you're ships should get a lot of bumps and scratches while fighting the Italians.
Another thing I tend to do is not to send a fleet into the North Sea after France has been conquered/vichied by the Axis, when there isn't an invasion force waiting in German ports to conduct a Sealion. It is usually better to react on moves by the small German surface fleet, since this gives you ships in reserves which might come in handy later.

Now some people did already say it, but I will also state this: the Japanese are of no importance to the CW at all at this point. They aren't ready for an attack on the CW. If they were, even then I would say that they are of no importance to the CW. The message to Japan coming from the CW should be: please DoW me. That means the green monster is going to appear very soon with all those extra chits going his way and full production to repair CW ships.
So strip the Far East of the ships and forces. Just keep small garrisons in India, Burma and Singapore (to prevent nasty things by Partisans) and get the rest of the units and ships out to where the fighting is. They are needed there and shouldn't sit on the proverbial ass doing nothing. Every CW ship should earn their pays, fighting the Italians and Germans in the first full two years of the war. I usually strip the Pacific of all ships, except for a few CA/CL doing escort duty to protect CW controlled TRS.




< Message edited by Centuur -- 12/30/2011 12:31:32 PM >

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Post #: 626
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/30/2011 12:44:36 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline 		I just did some calculations, and through impulse #5 of M/J '40, the CW has had 38 BP worth of units destroyed. This includes only CW units, and does not include any units it gained through alignment of minor nations. It also does not include naval units that were "damaged" and sent to the repair pool (much more trouble to track down).

During the first 4 turns, they only had 64 BP to use to build new units. That's a net gain of only 26 BP over the first 4+ turns. Continuing aggressive play by the CW, particularly with ships that take a long time to rebuild, seems inadvisable to me.

quote:

There are still CW controlled ships in the W.Med, are they?

See the image below. As I noted in post #610, the remaining Spanish force retreated to Gibraltar. If it had not, it would likely have been smashed.



quote:

The CW fleet is huge, compared to the combined fleet of the Italians and the Germans, so it can absorb losses more easily than the Euroaxis.

Yes, it is huge, but it has more territory to cover, and it has more tasks to accomplish. And, it has already absorbed so many losses in the W. Med that it has had to regroup in order to gain the advantage again.
quote:

Another thing I tend to do is not to send a fleet into the North Sea after France has been conquered/vichied by the Axis, when there isn't an invasion force waiting in German ports to conduct a Sealion. It is usually better to react on moves by the small German surface fleet, since this gives you ships in reserves which might come in handy later

Unfortunately, I can't afford this luxury. There is an AMPH in Kiel and ships that can carry divisions far away from the North Sea. I need to have a strong enough fleet there to discourage any attempt at Sea Lion or Sea Lion-like actions -- by being in position to intercept them -- especially since I've had to strip the UK for the time being in order to support Africa.
quote:

So strip the Far East of the ships and forces. Just keep small garrisons in India, Burma and Singapore (to prevent nasty things by Partisans) and get the rest of the units and ships out to where the fighting is. They are needed there and shouldn't sit on the proverbial ass doing nothing. Every CW ship should earn their pays, fighting the Italians and Germans in the first full two years of the war. I usually strip the Pacific of all ships, except for a few CA/CL doing escort duty to protect CW controlled TRS.

Please review the range of the ships in the Far East. Many of them would take half a year to get into the action. The others can reach the E. Med by next turn, but without any air cover, they are just begging to be destroyed by the soon-to-come Italian NAVs.

Also, even if the USA gets an extra chit per turn starting now, chances are it won't help all that much. In fact, those chances are 55% per turn of a 0 or a 1 being added. Yes, every little bit helps, but stripping the CW Far-East is begging for an attack that might last a full year or more before the USA can successfully DOW Japan. Is that really a safe thing to do, particularly with China in such a dire situation?

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 12/30/2011 12:57:47 PM >

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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Post #: 627
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/30/2011 1:10:11 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline 		I should add to this that there is a MAR division in Canton, just waiting for the chance to strike, and a 2nd MAR division coming in for Japan at the start of next turn. With those two units and whatever I can put on my current AMPH, a lot of damage could be done to the CW before the USA gets into it. At the moment, Australia is completely defenseless. With just those 2 MAR divisions and some fleet elements to provide supply, Melbourne and Canberra could be taken very easily -- with no reinforcements in sight -- at the start of next turn.

Suddenly, autumn falls in the northern hemisphere, and Australia is a Japanese Island !!!

And the USA is still twidling its thumbs, wondering if it really should get involved or not.
-----
Edit: And, in the meantime, the effort to wipe out China continues without being effected by this "little war" with the CW. If China chooses then to Surrender, all the better! Japan won't end up Neutral, and it can redeploy however it wants to with lots of land movements -- because the CW has abandoned the seas of the South Pacific in order to try to stabilize a failing Med.

Where the hell are those Americans, anyway!

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 12/30/2011 1:15:27 PM >

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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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Post #: 628
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/30/2011 1:50:09 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline 		Okay, I chose a Naval Action for the CW, so that I could:

  • move the TRS from the E. Coast to Casablanca (Montreal MIL)
  • move the TRS from Cape Basin to Casablanca (RSA TERR)
  • move the fleet from French Polynesia (at Centuur's urging) to the N. Atlantic
  • move ships from Scapa Flow into both Faeroes Gap and the N. Atlantic (to have a tiny chance to intercept an invasion of the Azores)
  • place sentry ships in the S. China and Timor sea areas
  • try once more to clear out the E. Med (good luck, Admiral!)

The deciding factors were the need to "protect" the Azores from future invasion, and the fact that a Naval Action allows Gort to reorganize both TRS that returned to Casablanca. They can then start heading out toward the Far East to begin the redisposition of troops there a full turn sooner than expected.

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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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Post #: 629
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 12/30/2011 2:50:57 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline 		Someone suggested hoping for luck in surprise points against the NAV in the E. Med (for the CW).

Well, I tried it, and here were the results:

CW initiates combat in the E. Med, using CA Devonshire; Allied Roll: 1, Axis: 7
.....Italy chooses Naval Air Combat, CW uses 6 Surprise Points to Increase AA Columns
.....AA Rolls: 2, 1 (reduction of 1 Air-to-Sea Factor)
.....Italy Aborts CA Liverpool

With any luck at all, the -1/2 (lowest of 2 rolls) should have either eliminated both Air-to-Sea Factors of the NAV or Aborted it from combat. Guess what? I'm starting to think the CW doesn't want to keep the Med. I let this attempt go on for a total of 4 combat rounds, and the CW didn't get lucky again. In fact, the Axis didn't fail to find again, while the CW only found in 1 more round. After the first round (failure by the CW to eliminate the NAV), the Axis was able to use its Surprise Points to clear the NAV through without AA fire.

Final results:

Italy was completely undamaged by the attack . . . and managed to damage/abort a CA and abort 4 others, leaving only 4 sea-worthy ships remaining.

So, the CW was forced to abort to Suez or risk losing even more ships. If it stayed, it would have had 9 Surface Factors on 6 ships (-X/1D/3A) vs. 18 Surface Factors on 4 ships (1X/-D/1A) or 2 unstoppable Air-to-Sea Factors on 4 ships (-X/-D/2A), so the only hope of salvaging any kind of victory required search rolls that gave the CW at least 4 Surprise Points to use to choose the combat type. That seemed unlikely.

I tried, with what I had available, but failed. You can say a lot of things about my game as the CW, but you can't say I didn't try.
-----
Edit: Correction: the CW aborted to Port Said, not to Suez, since Suez is not a Major Port

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 12/30/2011 2:55:43 PM >

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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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Post #: 630
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