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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/10/2012 8:54:42 PM

Canoerebel

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To reply to some of the questons and comments from the kind and well regarded peanut gallery:

1. I am getting SigInt of troops prepping for bases in Sumatra - mainly small units prepping for Palembang. This turn, for instance, it was two regiments.

2. I know the location of six divisons, probably seven, aside from those in China. Two in Burma, two at Padang, and two at Malaybaylay. The seventh was recently reported to be on a maru bound for Manila.

3. I think alot of IJ divisions were sent to China after the Allied spring and summer offensive mauled about eight IJA divisions. I suspect that is part of the reason for Steve's reticense.

4. In China, Japan has concetrated troops in cities, so there aren't the "easy pickings" that were out there during the spring and summer offensive. I'm toying around with some ideas, but right now things are quiet in this theater.

5. I am somewhat concerned that Steve might mount some kind of huge campaign at this late date. As I've reported before, I've dismissed most of these possibilities because, in my estimation, the commitment to important but far-flung places would create bigger and better opportunities for the Allies in the DEI. Hawaii, Australia, New Zealand, and the Aleutians are vulnerable, but the risk to benefit analysis is very satsifactory in my estimation. I am also somewhat alert to a crazy landing on the West Coast with the idea of destroying American aircraft factories. I have decent troop concentrations at some of the major cities and a fair number of aircraft squadrons.

6. While my mind toys with the "what ifs" and the "what in the world is he doing" kind of things, my overall impression is that Steve just doesn't know what he wants to do. At some point, I expect a concentrated attack in the DEI. That's the only theater that matters now (well, that and China). He has to do something and eventually he will. Since the Allied position is relatively small, with narrow "shoulders," a sudden and massed attack will fall on my bases and ships and cause quite a bit of damage. That will happen. But the Allied position is strong overall, and i'm working on widening those shoulders.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/10/2012 8:55:48 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/10/2012 9:14:11 PM

JeffroK

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I think Chez lets the AI run the game for 2-3 weeks then pops in to see whats happening.

Does he comment on GJ/raders AAR's, is he getting worried about an end run into the heart of the Empire so is building up his next line of defence?

It doesnt make sense so lotts of silly ideas get formulated.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/10/2012 9:18:46 PM

Canoerebel

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Last screen shot for the day: Cenpac. There's a flurry of activity here with the presence of IJN combat and carrier TFs. In the main, though, this is now a backwater.

The Allies have accomplished the objective of securing and strengthening a chain of bases to create an MLR. Tarawa is the key. No more Allied troops will be committed to this theater in the foreseeable future. Steve is welcome to expend time and effort attacking any of these bases.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/10/2012 9:19:45 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/10/2012 9:49:08 PM

Cribtop

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I honestly don't think he'll do much else. I concur with your thesis that the best move in Burma is to isolate Singapore. Because isolating Singers carries lots of other benefits, it's two birds with one stone. My goal at this point would be to isolate Singapore and develop bases from which 4Es, 2Es and even SBDs could ravage every oil port in enemy hands.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/10/2012 10:11:26 PM

Canoerebel

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Does bombing a port facility (not strategic bombing, just port bombing) inhibit loading of oil aboard shipping? If so, I can begin doing that here and there.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/10/2012 10:43:21 PM

Cribtop

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I imagine 100% damage would prevent loading anything. Sinking enemy shipping anywhere near an oil port with SBDs would also work.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/10/2012 10:56:58 PM

EUBanana

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Does bombing a port facility (not strategic bombing, just port bombing) inhibit loading of oil aboard shipping? If so, I can begin doing that here and there.

Damage reduces the port level by a straight percentage (ie 50% damage -> 50% port level), rounded down, so even 1% port damage will knock off a level, as a level 7 port becoming a 6.99 port gets rounded down to 6.

Looking at the book, load rates vary by cargo type but they are all linear relationships, so a level 3 port loads at half the speed of a level 6 one, and a level 0 port has zero load/turn.

< Message edited by EUBanana -- 1/10/2012 10:57:23 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/10/2012 11:00:42 PM

obvert

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When I mentioned bombing Balikpapan a few days ago it was to take out the ports. If the port is damaged you can't do much with what's in it.

Miri should be within range if Balikpapan isn't. Has he fixed the Oil there to better than the 150 or so it starts with?

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/10/2012 11:01:04 PM

EUBanana

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And having just read this AAR finally, all I can say is

...

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/10/2012 11:05:38 PM

Canoerebel

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Balikpan oil is untouched. Miri oil was about 50% damaged and hasn't been repaired.

My bombers don't have range yet to hit Balikpapan and Miri. Niether the B-17E and B17F can strike from Oosthaven or Palembang. The LB-30 can hit both bases, I think, and the B-24D can hit Balipapan at max range.

At this point, I'm not going to do any raids because they would be weak and would only serve to put Steve on notice. Better to wait until Billiton Island or Toabali reach level four or higher and then strike in strength.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/10/2012 11:07:18 PM

Cribtop

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That's what I think we are suggesting. Your DEI offensive can result in strong bases in much closer range. Meanwhile, you can use Palembang and Oost to smash Java.

PS - when I say meanwhile, I mean launch a co-ordinated offensive when all is ready. I'm not proposing a "Java now, Miri and Balikpapan later" concept.

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 1/10/2012 11:09:18 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/11/2012 12:06:07 AM

pws1225

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CR - Another question if I may. You have a lot of troops in eastern Sumatra and vicinity that need to be supplied. Are your supply lines secure, or would an interruption of those lines by Chez unravel your position? And does such an interruption seem possible at this point? A JFB wants to know.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/11/2012 12:09:35 AM

Canoerebel

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The supply lines are secure. The Allies won a carrier battle many months ago, kocking out two CV. Before that, Chez lost three CVL. So Japan isn't in a position to send his carriers into the Indian Ocean. Also, the Allies hold Cocos Island in strength (300 AV and a level five airfield), which is a big help in securing the LOC between India and Sumatra.

The Allies regualry send supply convoys to Sumatra. In addition, Palembang generates something like 1,000 supply per day. As a result, the Allies are in good shape despite the huge army in Sumatra. Palembang has 400k supply and other bases have anothr 150k or so.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/11/2012 12:37:42 AM

pws1225

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Hmmm, there's gotta be a way to unstring you. There's just gotta be.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/11/2012 2:17:25 AM

princep01

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Yes, there is a way to unstring the fortress...it is:

1. Never, ever let the Allies build it in the first event. The Japanese clearly have the ability to do this very early. This i sespecially true in a Scenario 2 game.

2. Failing that, one can really isolate the fortress by sea, bomb it incessantly and prevent it from becoming impregnable. Whittle it away and eventually take the place.

3. Surrender and save the time and effort.

At this point, I think Option 3 is the only one open.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/11/2012 2:30:55 AM

zuluhour

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CR you may just have "scared" him out of planning confrontations.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/11/2012 4:18:37 PM

Canoerebel

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10/11/42

A turn that bodes well for the Allies.

CenPac: A powerful enemy surface combat TF including CAs Ashigara, Kinugasa and Nachi arrives at Tarawa. Three PT boat squadrons react. During the ensuing battle, four PT boats are sunk while CA Ashigara takes one torp. Later in the day, an SBD-2 from Tarawa puts a 1k-pound bomb into the damaged cruiser. The small IJN carrier TF sinks another xAK near Baker Island.

The Whole is Greater than the Sum of the Parts: Far more important than the actual fighting taking place in CenPac is the intelligence benefits. The Allies got info on three of the remaining eleven IJN heavy cruisers (and a fourth, Atago, was sighted by a USN sub near Cam Ran Bay). Steve is committing major assets in a theater that is almost irrelevant. More importantly, this tells me that he isn't preparing a weighted punch in the DEI - or at least a punch that is weighted as heavily as it needs to be. The Allies are therefore encouraged to continue and even accelerate expansion out of Sumatra.

DEI: More troops ashore on both Bangka (268th Armored Bde bound for Muntok) and Billiton. 25th Indian Division (prepping for Singkawang) arrives at Oosthaven tonight. The Allies will begin transport by air of a base force to Pontianak to provide local CAP. 25th Division will go forward to Pontianak expeditiously. That's a forward base, the division is loaded aboard good AP and AK, so there is risk here. Lots of subs around Oosthaven. One got APD Gregory, the first of these valuable ships to go under, which is surprising since they have been doing very hazardous duty for months now. Allied ASW continues to molest and damage enemy subs, so this campaign is satisfactory.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/11/2012 7:00:13 PM

Canoerebel

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The Battle of Oosthaven (aka "The Game of Chicken")

The ongoing Battle of Oosthaven has been perhaps the most critical campaign of the war, though it's been so spread out that it's importance might be overlooked.

The Allies have, of course, controlled Oosthaven since the beginning of the game. But this important port is also right on the front lines, subject to interdiction by enemy ships and aircraft. The question of whether Japan would be able to impose a blockade on the port, thus making Allied efforts to reinforce Sumatra, became a long and crucial game of chicken through much of early and mid 1942. If Japan made it difficult or impossible for Allied ships to get into the port, the only other port of recourse was Benkolen, which was smaller and also subject to interdiction.

Recognizing the importance of Oosthaven, the Allies concentrated on building the airfield and forts, garrisoning the base with CD units and soldiers, and defending with capital ships.

It was the latter on which he game of chicken developed. Japan kept sending powerful TFs, both combat and carrier, into the vicinity. Allied capital ships kept getting hammered, though the Japanese were likewise taking alot of damage. I thought it was likely that Japan would be able to prevail using to good advantage the big Java bases to take control of the skies. But Steve blinked first. In a series of naval battles over a period of about a month back during spring 1942, enough capital ships took damage or were sunk to convince him to retire.

That left Oosthaven firmly under Allied control. Reinforcements and supply have poured into the port. Equally importantly now, the base is a port of embarkation for the flow of units to the key bases to the north. Had Steve won the game of chicken, it would be difficult or impossible to occupy, reinforce, and suppy the Java Sea bases that are so vital to the Allied expansion now underway. Without Oosthaven, the Sunda Strait between Sumatra and Java would have been closed.

The Battle of Oosthaven, indeed, has been the key campaign of the war.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/11/2012 7:02:29 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/12/2012 6:08:52 PM

Canoerebel

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10/12/42

DEI: The first of the air support personnel have been flown into Pontianak, thus beginning the next phase of Allied expansion in the Java Sea. Fast transports carrying a battalion of the East African unit scheduled to arrive tonight. 25th Indian Division has disembarked at Oosthaven, will take three days to swap from strat to combat mode, and will then begin boarding transports bound for Pontianak. More reinforcements are inbound to Oosthaven, including a Chindit unit slated for Pontianak but prepping for Kuching. Enemy forces still aren't molesting exposed Allied transports unloading at Billiton and Toboali (exposed because one of my escorting combat TFs had to retire to Cocos Island to replenish ammo after a surface engagement with a sub). Things continue to look very good in the DEI.

Burma: The Allied pincer movement to isolate and control all hexsides re: the IJ army at Magwe is nearly complete.

NoPac: Nothing to indicate a counterinvasion in the immediate future. Just 19 days until winter....

CenPac: Small IJN carrier force still near Baker Island.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/12/2012 6:30:06 PM

ny59giants

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I guess I would be looking to continue your build up from southern Sumatra to Borneo. Then get ready for a big push into Java in early '43. Along those lines, I would be building up from Perth to Exmouth to make that part of the India Ocean yours later in the war.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/12/2012 6:36:05 PM

Canoerebel

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The eastern DEI and western Oz have been completely quiet. I still hold all of Oz. I regularly send small xAKL and xAK from Perth to Darwin with supply. Not one of them has been attacked by aircraft or sub. Not one has even been sighted by enemy patrols.

I should add that I can't take advantage of the quiet around the Timor region because I have nothing in Oz. Everything is in Sumatra and vicinity.

Re: moving into Java in 1943. Until recently, my plan was to keep expanding up the Borneo coasts in 1943 as long as the road remains "open." However, in recent weeks I've considered moving into Java since that will help safeguard passageway through the Sunda Straight. Lots will happen between now and then to influence the ultimate course of action.

It is possible that Steve is laying groundwork for a surprise offensive or for a tight inner MLR. On the other hand, it is possible that he isn't even paying attention to this game for all intents and purposes. I will have egg on my face if it turns out I've been advancing methodically while he essentially hasn't been doing a thing, if that proves to be the case.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/12/2012 6:59:22 PM

Cribtop

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Taking Java also knocks out two Oil centers.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/12/2012 7:13:51 PM

crsutton

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Balikpan oil is untouched. Miri oil was about 50% damaged and hasn't been repaired.

My bombers don't have range yet to hit Balikpapan and Miri. Niether the B-17E and B17F can strike from Oosthaven or Palembang. The LB-30 can hit both bases, I think, and the B-24D can hit Balipapan at max range.

At this point, I'm not going to do any raids because they would be weak and would only serve to put Steve on notice. Better to wait until Billiton Island or Toabali reach level four or higher and then strike in strength.

Siboret Island is the best place to take. Potential level 9 airfield and bombers are in range of all the near oil in the DEI and when you get B29s (probably does not apply to this game) you can then cover all the DEI oil from one base. Note to all JFBs-you had better put a strong garrison on Siboret. It is bad news if you let the Allies take it without a fight.

I just captured Manus which had 100 port damage and could only unload a trickle of stuff. So yes, you can unload something but not enough to make any difference. Also, smash the airfield and port and the port does not even start to repair until the airfield is at 100%.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/12/2012 7:23:30 PM

Canoerebel

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Marine Raiders have been holding Siberoet for about three months.� An RAF base force is on the way to beef up the garrison and to add some engineers to start building.

But Siberoet isn't as important in this game at this point.� The Allies have a multitude of potential level nine airfields already under construction:� Benkolen, Djambi, Lahat, Praebemolith, Toboali and Muntok.� There will be a level eight airfield at Billiton Island.� There is already a level nine field at Oosthaven.

Siberoet could have been of use to Japan earlier in the game. Had Japan taken Siberoet and some other islands (Cocos, Engenno, and say Toabali), then eastern Sumatra could have been isolated and reduced in good order.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/12/2012 9:04:15 PM

JeffroK

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Marine Raiders have been holding Siberoet for about three months.� An RAF base force is on the way to beef up the garrison and to add some engineers to start building.

But Siberoet isn't as important in this game at this point.� The Allies have a multitude of potential level nine airfields already under construction:� Benkolen, Djambi, Lahat, Praebemolith, Toboali and Muntok.� There will be a level eight airfield at Billiton Island.� There is already a level nine field at Oosthaven.

Siberoet could have been of use to Japan earlier in the game. Had Japan taken Siberoet and some other islands (Cocos, Engenno, and say Toabali), then eastern Sumatra could have been isolated and reduced in good order.

This is where it has been odd.

OK Sumatra was defended by CR and was probably going to be very hard to take, the land push on Padang is an attempt to see if CR is going to seriously defend, but on proving this the thrusters pull back and make sure CR doesnt move west (not lose 2 Divs!!)

But those islands between Borneo, Malaya, Sumatra could have been garrisoned by APD or barge and built up by air. The IJA has hundreds of ant units which are built for this purpose.

I dont know what would have dissuaded CR but maybe 100AV might have sent him looking elsewhere, or at least bought on a battle which caused some losses.

CR, can you encourage Chez to at least put down his thoughts so that after the game we can see what was going on, after all, there might be method in his madness.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/12/2012 9:08:15 PM

Canoerebel

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Yes, a small garrison would go a long way towards slowing or even stopping the expansion by the Allies.� But when the Allies can ship troops to bases that are still friendly, it's easy. The ease encourages the Allies to expand quickly and aggressively.

Chez's play is really�inexplicable.� I can't ask him to post to his AAR (to do so might come across wrong), but you guys can.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/12/2012 9:09:01 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/12/2012 9:15:24 PM

John 3rd

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quote:

ORIGINAL: pws1225

Hmmm, there's gotta be a way to unstring you. There's just gotta be.

I don't see HOW he could unhinge this scenario. Dan is too thoughtful to find a 'mistake' to exploit. His loss in CVs cripples doing anything seriously wild at this point.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/12/2012 9:23:11 PM

JeffroK

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yes, a small garrison would go a long way towards slowing or even stopping the expansion by the Allies.� But when the Allies can ship troops to bases that are still friendly, it's easy. The ease encourages the Allies to expand quickly and aggressively.

Chez's play is really�inexplicable.� I can't ask him to post to his AAR (to do so might come across wrong), but you guys can.

I understand, but something that might be posted at the end.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/13/2012 2:53:55 PM

Canoerebel

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10/13/42

DEI: Battalion of 22nd East African Bde. ashore at Pontianak. ASW hammers an RO-class sub at Oosthaven. Lots of Allied shipping around Oosthaven, Toboali and Billiton Island. No sign (yet) of enemy opposition. Billiton airfield goes to level three in a few days. I have alot of base force units in theater, but it's going to take a heckuva lot more to service all the big airfields the Allies will have by the end of the year. Alot more base forces, especially American, are on the way (I recently stripped Seattle of three or four that were originally slated for NoPac, plus another one or two from southern California that were slated for the Pacific).

Burma: The Allies control all Magwe hexsides. Does Japan have troops in reserve that can bull through and reopen the road to Rangoon?

NoPac: No sign of imminent enemy counterinvasion in the Kuriles. I've pulled out all fighters from Paramushiro to rest and replace losses. They'll go back in in about a week. In their absence, enemy raids are unopposed but doing very little damage.

CenPac: Small IJN carrier TF still loitering SW of Baker Island. Tarawa's garrison is at 31k, a bit over the limit, so I'm air transporting a small army battalion (26 AV) to Tabituea.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 1/13/2012 8:15:05 PM

zuluhour

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quote:

Alot more base forces

I think you will be receiving some hefty numbers of ac mechanics shortly off map

Actually in retrospect you probably have those RAF wing boys already. Did you post any of the seabees to Cape Town? I am presently considering this and must decide soon as the 35+ day voyage and subsequent deployment into theater requires some forsight.

< Message edited by zuluhour -- 1/14/2012 5:43:36 PM >

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