Red Prince
Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011 From: Bangor, Maine, USA Status: offline
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If you take a look at post #1062 above, you'll see that Italy has a bit of a decision to make. There are 8 factors in Suez, and these can be doubled with Shore Bombardment. Italy can put together a 2:1 attack against that, and has a 30% chance of HQ Support bumping the odds up a bit. With HQ-A Graziani involved, this can be made a Blitz attack (Suez isn't a city), and that gives 40%-50% odds of taking Suez. It would be higher, but the Combat Friction rule is in play, and they'll need those German Ground Support factors. This can be offset if I try a Ground Strike on the last unit, but the odds of success are low. What to do, what to do. If I don't take Suez now, the CW might be encouraged to reinforce Wavell. If I do, he'll probably flee. I don't expect the odds to get much better -- this is Axis impulse #9, and the Allied impulse #11 will have a 50% chance of ending the turn. If that happens the disorganized unit in Suez gets re-organized. But even if I do take Suez now, both HQs are likely to be disorganized (80%-90% chance) and that is a full Oil Point used up to reorganize them. Italy is a little short on Oil right now . . . Well, you know me. I like to take risks. At worst, I might lose a unit and fail to take Suez. So, the Cairo MIL can be destroyed and rebuilt. (Actually, at worst 2 units could die, but I'm hoping not to get another '1' roll, and even if that happens, it only removes 3 attack factors . . . and I can get 2 of those back at the start of next turn. Looks like Italy is going to move up for the attack . . . beware, Suez, we're coming for you! ----- I tried the Ground Strike, but rolled too high.
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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it! -Lazarus Long, RAH
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