RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 6:42:39 PM

Centuur

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How can the USA prepare for a war, which might start so early? That's almost impossible to prepare for. The USA simply didn't have enough time to prepare, so only a very few units capable of offensive tasks are on the board. There's one MAR, some SUB's and the fleet. That's all folks. There wasn't time for building a lot, wasn't there?
IMHO, since the US entry level did go so fast, it isn't suprising to see this, isn't it?

Now: reading all this in regards to US entry, the question now is: what do the Axis know? They know that the USA passed the bill and lost a chit for it. That's all (in a normal game).
The Euroaxis knows he is in a reasonable position to try to kill the USSR (reasonable, not great, since the composition of the units going to Persia is not good and the Italian airforce isn't at the eastern front). However: he is pressed for time. The longer he is waiting, the worse is his position going to be, because of the big green monsters high US entry.
The Japanese are on the move to the USSR border and are 1 factory away to conquer China. That's good.

So what to do: DoW the USSR this turn by the Germans and start moving into Eastern Poland. It's snowing, in the Arctic and that's good for moving units. Wait a turn for a better surprise impulse? Why? To give the USSR another turn to build more INF units? In M/J there is also the risk of bad weather appearing in the Arctic zone. You should use all reasonable weather you can get, if you are in position at the border. Snow is reasonable weather. Rain, Storm and Blizzard are not. So attack. You are ready, do so. Don't wait until the first Fine impulse comes around, because that can still be a long time, if you are unlucky with the weather rolls...
Next turn: the Japanese DoW the USSR, conquer China, DoW the CW and the French in subsequent impulses. By doing this you put an awful lot of chits into the US entry pools. Also let the Italians and Germans DoW China and let the Italians DoW the USSR seperate from the Germans. Why: because it doesn't matter anymore and you should try to frustrate US entry.
This might delay the US entry in the war a few turns (or not, if you are unlucky).
In those turns you've got your hands free to try to grab as much from the USSR as possible. Therefore: move now with the Germans into the USSR, since every impulse delay will mean 3-4 hexes less USSR in Axis hands at the end of 1941 (given reasonable weather).
Also: the Japanese are going to be oil embargoed next US entry phase, if you don't give the USA another option to choose, which he should do, because it is more important than the oil embargo. That option is to send resources into the USSR. He should choose this option before the oil embargo if the USSR is at war with Germany. If not, well: the USA is playing into the hands of the Germans.

I would never wait for fine weather. Snow is good enough to start the war with the USSR. And that's also, because Eastern Poland is almost empty of enemy units.

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(in reply to composer99)

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 6:44:36 PM

Shannon V. OKeets

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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

The ability to look at the WiF game from a more global picture is, IMO, a skill that comes with practice. Goodness knows I'm still working on it.

I think of WIF as having 3 major decision making tasks: tactical, operational, and strategic. That's how I am setting up the AI Opponent's logic.

Tactical and strategic should be obvious to readers of this forum. My definition of operational here is the deployment of assets (e.g., units) to different theaters. These decisions need to be planned out 2-6 turns in advance.

It is quite easy to screw up any and all of these decision types with results that are intensely annoying to the decision maker.

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Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 1292

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 6:52:09 PM

Red Prince

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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

That looks correct. Good old RAW/RAC - so many rules...

Don't you go stealing my motto now! (Too many rules . . . too many rules . . . )

I'm gonna copyright that some day, ya know.

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Post #: 1293

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 6:57:38 PM

Shannon V. OKeets

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One downside to DOWing the USSR in snow is that the turn is likely to be short. That means all the Russian reserves will become organized and capable of moving sooner. A DOW during fine weather means they are likely to be disorganized stationary targets in cites, instead of forming a defensive line behind a river.

In general, the worst turn for the USSR is the second one after the DOW. That's because of the horrendous losses in the first turn and that the newly built militia haven't arrived in the frontline yet. Any newly built INF and GAR are still sitting in production.

When the DOW is during a short turn, the losses are less and the Germans not as far into Russia when the turn ends. That lets the militia deploy to better hexes more easily. Similarly, the new INF and GAR get onto the map sooner.

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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 1294

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 6:58:28 PM

Red Prince

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

So what to do: DoW the USSR this turn by the Germans and start moving into Eastern Poland. It's snowing, in the Arctic and that's good for moving units. Wait a turn for a better surprise impulse? Why? To give the USSR another turn to build more INF units?

Answering just this question for now. This is the entire land unit force pool the Soviets have to work with -- until the MIL start showing up. If I can't make good progress at the start of the turn, and if it looks like the turn will be short, I don't want to add those MIL to the force pool.

Now I'll read the rest of the post (which might explain why what I just said is stupid).

Attachment (1)

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 7:02:30 PM

Red Prince

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

I would never wait for fine weather. Snow is good enough to start the war with the USSR. And that's also, because Eastern Poland is almost empty of enemy units.

It's not the Northern part of the USSR I'm worried about. It's the Ukraine. Snow up north might mean Storm or Rain in the South, and that's where I need to get good Ground Strikes and advance the most -- so I can try to get to Stalingrad (or thereabouts) by the end of the summer.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 7:07:25 PM

Shannon V. OKeets

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Here is information on land unit builds. The USSR wants them to arrive soon and at low cost.
It looks like Koniev and motorized are the best bet given the force pool composition.

Building ahead might deserve investigation.

Attachment (1)

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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 7:08:25 PM

composer99

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To be fair, Bessarabia is in the arctic area if memory serves, so snow should be suitable for a March/April DoW.

BTW: haven't seen an end-of-turn report. I assume that's because the various players concerned about the US gear up (in particular US player Red Prince, Japan player Red Prince, CW player Red Prince) are engaged in some serious cogitation.

Once again, I should like to re-emphasize that, in my opinion, if the Allies have a +2 initiative bonus they should (a) not ask for a re-roll even if they lose initiative, and (b) make the Axis go first if they do win initiative.

I think it is much more important to preserve the initiative bonus plus re-rolls for the summer. Yes, March/April could see sunny skies and panzers racing to the Dneipr, but given the highly variable weather - who knows?

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 7:10:36 PM

composer99

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If the Germans go in in March/April, unless they get a long clear-weather turn they probably won't kill a whole lot of USSR units.

So I agree with Steve in building MOT and HQ-I Koniev. Also, the MECH should be produced. All of these units will arrive in the key July/August turn, as will any INF/GARR builds in March/April.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 7:28:43 PM

Red Prince

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While I've been listening to the discussion, I went down through every last potential USE roll so far in the game, and here are the year by year results:
-----
A/B = Expected/Actual chit draws
The first line in each sequence is Ge/It, the second is Ja, and the 3rd is the combined values
1939 is based on an average chit value of 2.333444
1940 is based on an average chit value of 1.789041
-----
1939 Total Chit Selections
4.5/5 Values: 1, 1, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4 / -1, -3
3.8/6 Values: 0, 1, 2, 4, 4, 5
8.3/11 Values: 0, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5 / -1, -3
Average Value of chits drawn: 2.69 / -2
Total Value of chits drawn: 35 / -4 = 31
Expected Value of chits drawn: 30.33 / -4.67
Expected Value of Expected chits drawn: 19.37

1939 Total Tension Chit Moves
1.5/2 Values: 3, 4
1/2 Values: 1, 4
2.5/4 Values: 1, 3, 4, 4
Average Value of chits moved: 3
Total Value of chits moved: 12
Expected Value of chits moved: 9.33
Expected Value of Expected chits moved: 5.83

1940 Total Chit Selections
9.7/8 Values: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 3 / -1
7/5 Values: 1, 1, 1, 2, 3
16.7/13 Values: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3 / -1
Average Value of chits drawn: 1.57 / -1
Total Value of chits drawn: 22 / -1 = 21
Expected Value of chits drawn: 25.05 / -1.79
Expected Value of Expected chits drawn: 29.88

1940 Total Tension Chit Moves
1.6/1 Values: 4
1.2/1 Values: 5
2.8/2 Values: 4, 5
Average Value of chits moved: 4.5
Total Value of chits moved: 9
Expected Value of chits moved: 3.58
Expected Value of Expected chits moved: 5.01
-----
1939-40
Ge/It Expected Values of Expected chits Drawn: 27.8541957
Ge/It Expected Values of Expected chits moved: 6.3626316
Ja Expected Values of Expected chits Drawn: 21.3903742
Ja Expected Values of Expected chits moved: 4.4802932

If everything had gone "as expected", these should be the current numbers:

Ge/It Entry: 40.7
Ge/It Tension: 11.8
Ja Entry: 36
Ja Tension: 9.9

. . . except that a different set of decisions would have been made by the USA. The key here is that Tension grew much much faster than it should have. I think looking at 1940 proves that the actual chit draws tend to even out over the course of the game, but if Tension builds quickly enough, the USA can get the production schedule going that much faster.
-----
If you think this looks wrong, or if you think I've screwed something up somewhere, I'd be happy to post the entire file I used to make these calculations.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 7:32:12 PM

Red Prince

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Here's what the 1942 Force Pool (build ahead) has to offer for land units:

Attachment (1)

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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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Post #: 1301

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 7:39:18 PM

Red Prince

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I think this image should help explain some of the confusion about building Soviet "INF" units, and also why I hesitate to DOW in M/A '41 . . . all of those MIL units listed as "Future Force Pool Addition" arrive as soon as the USSR is at war. They could build a bunch of those and spoil things for Germany if the turn is very short.

Attachment (1)

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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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Post #: 1302

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 7:43:59 PM

composer99

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Look at the typical combat factors of those MIL and ask yourself as the German player if you find those totals all that worrying. There's a lot of trash in there.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 7:44:58 PM

Centuur

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Build MOT? I would build Koniev, the two white print INF and GAR first. Then the MOT, for gearing reasons only. I hate MOT, since they need oil, are expensive and use the motorised movement rates. They aren't white print and haven't got any better combat factors, as the white prints in the force pools at this moment. I would even be tempted to build the Ski divisions before the MOT...

Vatutin is nice to build ahead, however 8 BP is a awful lot to pay for him.

Yes, among those MIL there is a lot of crap, but it is cheap crap and they arrive very fast unto the map. Also: keep in mind that some are going to get destroyed and won't be build or rebuild, because of the home town of the MIL being taken by the enemy.
I would empty this pool, if there aren't any INF or GAR to be build any more. Gearing limits need to be as high as possible on INF...

< Message edited by Centuur -- 1/20/2012 7:55:15 PM >

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 7:45:38 PM

Red Prince

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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

To be fair, Bessarabia is in the arctic area if memory serves, so snow should be suitable for a March/April DoW.

BTW: haven't seen an end-of-turn report. I assume that's because the various players concerned about the US gear up (in particular US player Red Prince, Japan player Red Prince, CW player Red Prince) are engaged in some serious cogitation.

The Bessarabia in the Arctic is only parial (see below).

The reason I haven't given an end-of-turn report yet is that I still haven't figured out the best thing to do with China. To surrender or not to surrender . . . that is the question . . . whether 'tis nobler to go down without a fight and try to help the USA enter the war . . . or suffer the slings and arrows of an Extreme-DOW party . . . I just can't decide what to do, and that's going to impact builds and even where I return units to base.

Now, about Bessarabia, here's how the last impulse of J/F '41 looked. If something similar happens, and the Axis gets the first impulse, how useful is this, really?

Attachment (1)

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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 7:46:06 PM

Orm

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I think it would be better to build other things for USSR than to advance build units. Maybe a FTR2?

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 7:47:42 PM

Orm

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I recommend that China stays in the war a bit longer.

< Message edited by Orm -- 1/20/2012 7:48:41 PM >

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 7:51:44 PM

Red Prince

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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

Look at the typical combat factors of those MIL and ask yourself as the German player if you find those totals all that worrying. There's a lot of trash in there.

Again, it's not the quality I'm worried about, it's the quantity that troubles me. I want to have several impulses to try to kill "real" Soviet units. If I only get 2-3 impulses of mid-level odds attacks due to bad weather, the 2nd turn of the war will see these guys starting to get to the front and taking the losses instead. I figure every INF or better that I can kill is worth 2 of these guys.

Circumstances may force me to do it anyway.

On a slightly different subject, if the Axis gets the initiative, does it force the Allies to move first? I suppose that, too depends on Chinese surrender and potential USA DOW situations.

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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 7:53:08 PM

Red Prince

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

I think it would be better to build other things for USSR than to advance build units. Maybe a FTR2?

I agree with this. The FTR units on the map are mostly the junk that couldn't be scrapped to start the game. There are some semi-nice FTR in the Force Pool now that can make a difference when summer rolls around.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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Post #: 1309

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 7:57:25 PM

Centuur

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FTR 2 is always good, however you should build at least 4 INF type units every turn by the USSR. That gearing limit is so very important...

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 7:59:55 PM

Red Prince

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

FTR 2 is always good, however you should build at least 4 INF type units every turn by the USSR. That gearing limit is so very important...

I won't be able to do that until the war starts. And, when it does, free gearing everywhere.

Boy, what I wouldn't give to know what the opening weather roll is going to be for the next turn . . .

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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 8:02:13 PM

Orm

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USSR gets free gearing once it goes to war so I do not feel that there is any concern for INF gearing.

Germany, however, I feel needs to gear up infantry production. Time to build the strong German MOT. And make sure that Germany has all infantry division on map or on the way.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 8:02:24 PM

composer99

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As far as I know, the USSR will get 17 bp this turn for production.

I think everyone will agree that HQ-I Koniev is a must-build (5 bp).

So that leaves 12 bp to play with. I think there are two ways to play it: build the MECH or not.

Build the MECH
This spends 5 more bp on the white-print 8-5 MECH, leaving 7 bp for other spending.

If you go with my suggestion of a MOT (4 bp), you could also build an INF (3 bp).

If you don't build a MOT, then an INF (3 bp), GARR (2 bp) and ftr2 (2 bp) would do the trick.

Do not build the MECH
An infantry-heavy build would see both INF (6 bp), the GARR (2 bp), and a ftr2 (2 bp) built, leaving 2 bp to be spent on either a division (ski or mot) or a pilot.

A motorized-heavy build could see 3 MOT (all 12 bp), or 2 MOT (8 bp), the GARR (2 bp) and either a ftr2 or a division

A balanced build could see 1 MOT (4 bp), 2 INF (6 bp), 1 GARR (2 bp) or maybe swap out the MOT for an aa gun (or 2 divisions) or the GARR for a ftr2 or division.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 8:02:41 PM

Centuur

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

I recommend that China stays in the war a bit longer.

This I agree on. Let the Japanese decide what to do about China. Only if by surrendering you are getting at least an 80% chanche on DoW'ing Japan succesfully with the USA in the next impulse, you might decide otherwise. If not: keep China alive.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 8:13:30 PM

Shannon V. OKeets

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

Build MOT? I would build Koniev, the two white print INF and GAR first. Then the MOT, for gearing reasons only. I hate MOT, since they need oil, are expensive and use the motorised movement rates. They aren't white print and haven't got any better combat factors, as the white prints in the force pools at this moment. I would even be tempted to build the Ski divisions before the MOT...

Vatutin is nice to build ahead, however 8 BP is a awful lot to pay for him.

Yes, among those MIL there is a lot of crap, but it is cheap crap and they arrive very fast unto the map. Also: keep in mind that some are going to get destroyed and won't be build or rebuild, because of the home town of the MIL being taken by the enemy.
I would empty this pool, if there aren't any INF or GAR to be build any more. Gearing limits need to be as high as possible on INF...

Sorry, I was assuming the INF would be built.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 8:16:48 PM

Centuur

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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

As far as I know, the USSR will get 17 bp this turn for production.

I think everyone will agree that HQ-I Koniev is a must-build (5 bp).

So that leaves 12 bp to play with. I think there are two ways to play it: build the MECH or not.

Build the MECH
This spends 5 more bp on the white-print 8-5 MECH, leaving 7 bp for other spending.

If you go with my suggestion of a MOT (4 bp), you could also build an INF (3 bp).

If you don't build a MOT, then an INF (3 bp), GARR (2 bp) and ftr2 (2 bp) would do the trick.

Do not build the MECH
An infantry-heavy build would see both INF (6 bp), the GARR (2 bp), and a ftr2 (2 bp) built, leaving 2 bp to be spent on either a division (ski or mot) or a pilot.

A motorized-heavy build could see 3 MOT (all 12 bp), or 2 MOT (8 bp), the GARR (2 bp) and either a ftr2 or a division

A balanced build could see 1 MOT (4 bp), 2 INF (6 bp), 1 GARR (2 bp) or maybe swap out the MOT for an aa gun (or 2 divisions) or the GARR for a ftr2 or division.

I would build the MECH (it is indeed a very good one), INF, GAR and FTR2. This than leaves one white print INF for next turn, together with the Ski divisions if the Germans are still not going to declare war. You are right about the MECH. With people suggesting MOT's I didn't look far enough...
Oh, for Red Prince: the Communists weather forecast: Rain and stormy weather in the Arctic for the whole spring turn. The five year plan did foresee this to happen in 1941...

< Message edited by Centuur -- 1/20/2012 8:21:41 PM >

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 8:18:36 PM

Shannon V. OKeets

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

I think it would be better to build other things for USSR than to advance build units. Maybe a FTR2?

I agree with this. The FTR units on the map are mostly the junk that couldn't be scrapped to start the game. There are some semi-nice FTR in the Force Pool now that can make a difference when summer rolls around.

Land units only for the USSR until they can form up a continuous defensive line from the north to the south. Fighters fly once per turn and unless the frontline has stabilized, they are overrun at no cost to the Germans and destroyed including a pilot that's 4 BPs.

If you are really desperate for options as to what to do with extra build points, save them! You will want them later when the force pool is overflowing with dead INF.

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 1317

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 8:23:22 PM

Shannon V. OKeets

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

To be fair, Bessarabia is in the arctic area if memory serves, so snow should be suitable for a March/April DoW.

BTW: haven't seen an end-of-turn report. I assume that's because the various players concerned about the US gear up (in particular US player Red Prince, Japan player Red Prince, CW player Red Prince) are engaged in some serious cogitation.

The Bessarabia in the Arctic is only parial (see below).

The reason I haven't given an end-of-turn report yet is that I still haven't figured out the best thing to do with China. To surrender or not to surrender . . . that is the question . . . whether 'tis nobler to go down without a fight and try to help the USA enter the war . . . or suffer the slings and arrows of an Extreme-DOW party . . . I just can't decide what to do, and that's going to impact builds and even where I return units to base.

Now, about Bessarabia, here's how the last impulse of J/F '41 looked. If something similar happens, and the Axis gets the first impulse, how useful is this, really?

With all the Stukas down south, as the USSR I would pull as many units as possible out of those hexes. Ground strikes on 3 units in a clear hex during the surprise turn are a German dream come true.

EDIT: and the division does not have a ZOC, so a reserve will have to be added to Cernauti to prevent the Germans running freely through the line. What bothers me the most is there are 11 units here (I like the unit in Lvov) to hold onto the Odessa factory. 3 more reserve units appear to be scheduled for this area. I would have chosen 1 unit (in Odessa) plus the 3 reserves. Wouldn't those other 10 units look lovely positioned along the Dnieper?

< Message edited by Shannon V. OKeets -- 1/20/2012 8:29:10 PM >

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 1318

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 8:28:08 PM

Red Prince

Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

I recommend that China stays in the war a bit longer.

This I agree on. Let the Japanese decide what to do about China. Only if by surrendering you are getting at least an 80% chanche on DoW'ing Japan succesfully with the USA in the next impulse, you might decide otherwise. If not: keep China alive.

The reason this is troubling me is that I won't have 80%, but I'll have a very good chance at 70%.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Centuur)

Post #: 1319

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/20/2012 8:29:14 PM

Orm

Posts: 22154
Joined: 5/3/2008
From: Sweden
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

I think it would be better to build other things for USSR than to advance build units. Maybe a FTR2?

I agree with this. The FTR units on the map are mostly the junk that couldn't be scrapped to start the game. There are some semi-nice FTR in the Force Pool now that can make a difference when summer rolls around.

Land units only for the USSR until they can form up a continuous defensive line from the north to the south. Fighters fly once per turn and unless the frontline has stabilized, they are overrun at no cost to the Germans and destroyed including a pilot that's 4 BPs.

If you are really desperate for options as to what to do with extra build points, save them! You will want them later when the force pool is overflowing with dead INF.

I find that a few decent FTR2 goes a long way to keep the German player from making long ranged ground strikes on key units. USSR can rebase 2 or 3 of them back each impulse along the retreating infantry.

_____________________________

Have a bit more patience with newbies. Of course some of them act dumb -- they're often students, for heaven's sake. - Terry Pratchett

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)

Post #: 1320

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)