Red Prince
Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
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There were 10 attacks made by the Axis this turn. There are 4 invasions that are automatic due to surprised Notional Units, an invasion of Batavia, an attack near Kunming, and 4 attacks against the USSR.
Three of the attacks against the Soviets deserve special notes:
Kaunas . . . I intentionally moved an INF (white print) so that it ended up disorganized in order to make this attack Automatic.
South of Bessarabia . . . looking at the first of the two images below, you're probably thinking "What the hell is he doing making a 1:1 attack???" Well, look at the second image before you go nuts. That one shows the attack that I'll make first and probably get a 'B' result for it, at 3:1 +4 odds. Move a single unit an extra hex east, and suddenly that 1:1 attack becomes a 5:1 +2 attack. There is method to my madness.
And the results:
Attack on China [89, 131]: Blitz, Roll = 8 = */1B
Attack on USSR [59, 54]: Assault, Roll = 6+2 = 8 = */2S
Attack on USSR {58, 54]: Blitz, Fractional Odds .954 (No), Roll = 9+4 = 13 = */2B (Not Converted, 2 x INF Destroyed, Breakthrough)
Attack on Lvov: Assault, Roll = 9 = */2S
Attack on Kaunas: Assault, Roll = Automatic
Attack on Tarakan: Assault, Roll = Automatic
Attack on Balikpapan: Assault, Roll = Automatic
Attack on Rabaul: Assault, Roll = Automatic
Attack on Trincomalee: Assault, Roll = Automatic
Attack on Batavia: Blitz, Roll = 3+1 = 4 = */B (Not Converted, 2 Oil Points gained)
I chose the Blitz table for the attack in China in the hopes of preserving the unit. If you want to see what the tables look like at 4:1 odds, I have a shot of it, but basically there was a 10% chance of survival as an Assault, and a 40% chance as a Blitz. China won't be seeing any more units for a while, so I went with the higher odds of keeping the INF around. Unfortunately, the roll was a digit too high . . . a '7' would have sent him to the Production Spiral.
After the Breakthrough succeeded SW of Chisinau, and the 1:1 +2 became a 5:1 +2, I was going to choose the Blitz CRT for this one, too . . . until I realized there were no longer any hexes which would allow these guys to Retreat, so the only hope that even one of them can survive is for the Germans to roll a '1' on the Assault CRT. Well, that didn't happen.
The unit in Lvov was dead, but there was a slight chance that he could stop this group of units from advancing any further this turn . . . but he didn't. 
In Batavia, the Assault CRT would have been certain death, with a 40% chance to disorganize the attackers. So, I went with another Blitz here. It only offers a 30% chance of survival and a 20% chance to disorganize . . . Batavia was going to be lost regardless. Turns out the unit did survive, but since the unit was the Batavia MIL, it won't be coming back while Batavia is in enemy hands.
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< Message edited by Red Prince -- 1/21/2012 10:01:12 PM >
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 
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