Red Prince
Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
|
That makes it 5-0 at this point, and that seems like a resounding yell for help. Looks like a US DOW in the EuroAxis is coming up soon . . . but first, the Axis impulse attacks:
-----
I thought long and hard before adding the final attack on Singapore by the Japanese, using the strong INF and the wimpy MIL units. I finally decided that I wasn't likely to be using these units again this turn, so I could afford to disorganize them and lose the MIL if it came to that. With an 86% chance at 3:1 odds (with Shore Bombardment and Ground Support), here are the percentages:
70% chance of clearing the hex
60% chance of gaining the hex
40% chance of gaining the hex without suffering a loss
10% chance of gaining the hex and remaining organized
-----
10% chance of losing both units without destroying the enemy MIL
10% chance of losing both units and clearing the hex
Anyway, with these odds and little chance of reinforcements coming for the CW, I decided it was worth the risk. So, the attacks for Impulse #5:
And the results:
Attack on Latvia [44, 50]: Blitz, Fractional Odds .979 (No), Roll = Automatic = */2B
Attack on Minsk: Assault, Roll = 3 = -/1 (attackers disorganized)
Attack on Poland [52, 52]: Assault, Roll = Automatic
Attack on Poland [55, 52]: Bitz, Fractional Odds .654 (No), Roll = 8 = */2B
Attack on Chisinau: Assault, Roll = 9+1 = 10 = */2S
Attack on Singapore: Assault, Fractional Odds .673 (Yes), Roll = 10 = */2S; USE-8 (+1 chit, 730 [4])
The attack on Minsk was an Assault because of the 50/50 chance of moving up to 6:1 odds on the Blitz CRT. While that means a 30% chance for the INF to survive to fight another day (on either 5:1 or 6:1 odds), it only offered a 10% chance that it would be as a Retreat. The deciding factor was really the Fractional Odds roll. At 6:1 odds, the Germans were almost certain to remain organized (90%). The 5:1 Blitz drops that to 70%, and the 5:1 Assault CRT drops it again to 50. In an Assault the defending INF dies no matter what the roll is, so it came down to the fact that the turn probably won't be a long one, and anything I can do to slow the Germans down is good. Since the attack involved 2 Oil dependent units and a top INF, I chose to take the 50/50 chance to disorganize them now. 2 minutes later: As it turns out, this was the right decision.
The attack NE of Cernauti was another tough decision. 5:1 Assault, or 5:1 Blitz with a 57% chance at 6:1. HQ Support garauntees that HQ-I von Leeb will end up disorganized, but the other 6 units attacking are the question. This is the attack selected in the image above, by the way. I finally decided on a Blitz combat. Even at 6:1, there's a 50% chance of the MTN surviving, and that would be a nice addition to the Persian front if Germany doesn't convert this to a Retreat. If Germany does, then it can only retreat into Cernauti . . . not something Germany would like to deal with. The downside to the Blitz table is the same as for Minsk -- a 70% to 90% chance the attackers remain organized. I even checked the weather before making this decision . . . and there's only a 30% chance that the weather will let these units move very far next impulse, so Blitz it is. 2 minutes later: Fractional Odds was a close call, but failed, not that it mattered. Once again, Germany rolled just high enough to be a pain in the neck. A roll of '7' would have meant survival for the MTN, but they rolled an '8' instead. Rats.
For Chisinau, there was really no choice. The INF was toast, and there was a tiny chance he'd disorganize his attackers (20%). He didn't. Not by a long shot.
All I can say about the attack on Singapore is that I didn't cheat. I swear it by anything you want me to swear by. The Japanese really did beat the odds and take it without getting disorganized. It did, however, cost them a lot of Oil in terms of Shore Bombardment and Ground Support. Some comfort that is, huh? Oh, and another high chit got added to the Ja Entry Pool.
A pretty successful impulse for the Axis, even with the Rain, I'd say.
-----
Edit: In case you were wondering, the Japanese don't suffer the -1 Odds Column penalty for attacking a Jungle hex. I made sure to check that before I decided to make the attack.
 Attachment (1)
< Message edited by Red Prince -- 1/23/2012 2:55:46 PM >
_____________________________
Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH
|
Printable Version
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 
New Messages
No New Messages
Hot Topic w/ New Messages
Hot Topic w/o New Messages
Locked w/ New Messages
Locked w/o New Messages
Post New Thread