Matrix Games Forums

Forums  Register  Login  Photo Gallery  Member List  Search  Calendars  FAQ 

My Profile  Inbox  Address Book  My Subscription  My Forums  Log Out

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

 
View related threads: (in this forum | in all forums)

Logged in as: Guest
Users viewing this topic: none
  Printable Version
All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> World in Flames >> After Action Report >> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) Page: <<   < prev  51 52 [53] 54 55   next >   >>
Login
Message << Older Topic   Newer Topic >>
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/25/2012 11:24:20 AM   
Lothrim

 

Posts: 20
Joined: 4/7/2006
Status: offline
I was wondering where the Moscow mil is hiding?. Is it hiding under the oil marker in Moscow ?
If so it should immidiateley rail to kiev, vitebsk or some other place where you intend to stand and die.

In general you will want germany to bruise himself on that mil every turn. Similarily with the Kharkow mil. Ideally they will die every turn only to pop right back up again. With Mil of cities you are going to lose the opposite is true. The Kiev MIL would be great in Leningrad, there it would probably sit in peace for a long time after Kiev is german controlled.

By railing into a critical hex you will become flipped, but ask yourself, will germany GS such a hex before he attacks it ?
Naturally he will do so and thus the effect of being flipped is not great since there is a 50% chance you would end up flipped anyway.

Generally it is ok to be flipped in places where you will make a stand no matter what. The risk is that germany will screen the strongpoint and move on, so pick that germany cannot advance without controlling.



(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1561
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/25/2012 1:11:38 PM   
composer99


Posts: 2923
Joined: 6/6/2005
From: Ottawa, Canada
Status: offline
Kiev and Dnepropetrovsk are good places for the Kharkov & Moscow MIL. The Germans need to secure those to advance unobstructed across the Dneipr.

_____________________________

~ Composer99

(in reply to Lothrim)
Post #: 1562
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/25/2012 2:11:18 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lothrim

I was wondering where the Moscow mil is hiding?. Is it hiding under the oil marker in Moscow ?
If so it should immidiateley rail to kiev, vitebsk or some other place where you intend to stand and die.

In general you will want germany to bruise himself on that mil every turn. Similarily with the Kharkow mil. Ideally they will die every turn only to pop right back up again. With Mil of cities you are going to lose the opposite is true. The Kiev MIL would be great in Leningrad, there it would probably sit in peace for a long time after Kiev is german controlled.

By railing into a critical hex you will become flipped, but ask yourself, will germany GS such a hex before he attacks it ?
Naturally he will do so and thus the effect of being flipped is not great since there is a 50% chance you would end up flipped anyway.

Generally it is ok to be flipped in places where you will make a stand no matter what. The risk is that germany will screen the strongpoint and move on, so pick that germany cannot advance without controlling.

Yup. He is still in Moscow. He just got reorganized at the start of the turn so can now rail out of it.

And thank you for reminding me how to choose which MIL units to use where. I'd completely forgotten I needed to pay attention to that.
-----
Right now I'm kind of waiting on the general forum philosophy on which to DOW first, Ge/It or Japan. So far, the vote is 2-1 to DOW Germany first.
-----
Edit: I'll tell you a secret: I've already run the game both ways, because I was curious. I have saves for both, so I can go whichever way you guys decide. But I won't tell you yet if either save includes a DOW that succeeded or not.

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 1/25/2012 2:15:13 PM >


_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Lothrim)
Post #: 1563
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/25/2012 2:42:44 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
Just to make sure I got it right, here are the votes:

2 for Ge/It - Klydon, Steve
1 for Japan - composer99
-----
Edit: This doesn't include my vote, which was for the DOW on Japan first (and ws made before I actually ran both scenarios, and therefore should not be taken as any kind of indication of what the results of the DOWs are/were).
-----
2nd Edit: Once the "clock" runs down, which could be any time today or tomorrow (basically once the voting shows a real preference), I'll tell you what would have happened for both situations, not just the one that is chosen.

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 1/25/2012 3:36:41 PM >


_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1564
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/25/2012 4:26:00 PM   
Lothrim

 

Posts: 20
Joined: 4/7/2006
Status: offline
A vote from me to declare against germany.

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1565
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/25/2012 5:36:21 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
For those of you convinced that the Axis has already won this game, I have some Production statistics for you. These statistics are based on the assumption that the following conditions will exist as of J/F '42:

1. Japan conquers China
2. Japan takes Vladivostok
3. Germany takes the other 6 Red Factories from the USSR
4. The USSR is conquered by Germany
5. Gemany aligns Turkey
6. The USA aligns both Mexico and Brazil
7. No factories or resources change hands for the rest of the game
8. The USA goes to Total War

Of these assumptions, here's how I rank them:

Near certain: #1, #2, #6, #8
Possible, but not certain: #5
Not impossible, but not likely: #3, #4
Ridiculous: #7

The reason I added #7 was to demonstrate why the Axis is in a much more difficult position than anyone might realize. Given all of these assumptions actually do happen, there are 6 years of useful production remaining, 1942-47. The first turn of 1948 is still useful, but let's just take these 36 turns for the "study". Here is a year by year breakdown of the maximum production for each side:

1942
Germany: 40 x 1.25 = 50
Italy: 14 x 1.25 = 18
Japan: 22 x 1.25 = 28
Axis per Turn/Year = 96/576

CW: 24 x 1.25 = 30
USA 45 x 1.5 = 56
Allies per Turn/Year = 86/516

1943
Germany: 40 x 1.5 = 60
Italy: 14 x 1.5 = 21
Japan: 22 x 1.5 = 33
Axis per Turn/Year = 114/684

CW: 24 x 1.5 = 36
USA 45 x 1.75 = 79
Allies per Turn/Year = 115/690

1944
Germany: 40 x 1.5 = 60
Italy: 14 x 1.5 = 21
Japan: 22 x 1.5 = 33
Axis per Turn/Year = 114/684

CW: 24 x 1.5 = 36
USA 45 x 2 = 90
Allies per Turn/Year = 126/756

1945
Germany: 40 x 1.5 = 60
Italy: 14 x 1.5 = 21
Japan: 22 x 1.5 = 33
Axis per Turn/Year = 114/684

CW: 24 x 1.5 = 36
USA 45 x 2.25 = 101
Allies per Turn/Year = 137/822

1946
Germany: 40 x 1.5 = 60
Italy: 14 x 1.5 = 21
Japan: 22 x 1.5 = 33
Axis per Turn/Year = 114/684

CW: 24 x 1.5 = 36
USA 45 x 2.25 = 101
Allies per Turn/Year = 137/822

1947
Germany: 40 x 1.5 = 60
Italy: 14 x 1.5 = 21
Japan: 22 x 1.5 = 33
Axis per Turn/Year = 114/684

CW: 24 x 1.5 = 36
USA 45 x 2.25 = 101
Allies per Turn/Year = 137/822

1942-44
Axis total Production: 1944
Allied total Production: 1962

1942-47
Axis total Production: 3996
Allied total Production: 4428

That difference of 432 BP means an average of a 12 BP advantage for the Allies every turn for those 6 years. That's an extra 3 x FTR-2 every turn for 6 years, or the equivalent in other forces. The reason I mention the FTR-2 is that the Allied air forces will soon be much stronger than the Axis counterparts.

Also, by the time the Axis has reached these goals, it is on the defensive (unless it tries a Sea Lion or an invasion of the Americas!). Think of all the O-chits that the USA can produce with 101 BP per turn. O-chit is short for Offensive Chit, and they are much more useful when attacking than they are when trying to slow down an attack. This is why I say that item #7 on the list above is "ridiculous". With so much territory to cover, and with a Production advantage that doesn't actually exist, the Allies need only sit back and pick their targets in order to win this war.

Of course, that depends on what you define as "Victory". MWiF played in Solitaire or Hot-Seat Mode defines it as the side with the most Victory Cities at the end of the game. At the moment, the Axis leads by 9 (38-29), and will gain 7 more under the assumptions listed above. That would give them a 45-21 victory (-1 for the Allies by aligning both Mexico and Brazil to the USA). That means that in order to claim victory, starting from J/F 1942, the Allies need to re-take 13 Victory Cities to win 34-32.

The starting numbers for Victory Cities are: Allies 45.5, Axis 21.5

If the Axis can claim 16.5 Victory Cities in the first 10 turns, and an assumed 23.5 in the first 14 turns, I don't see why the Allies can't take back 13 of them in the last 40 turns of the game, do you? In a worst-case scenario, they could probably easily mount an invasion that would take both Oslo and Stockholm before the Axis could respond. That's 2 cities right there, leaving just 11 more to take. Here are the options:




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 1/25/2012 5:39:37 PM >


_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Lothrim)
Post #: 1566
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/25/2012 6:02:05 PM   
Centuur


Posts: 8802
Joined: 6/3/2011
From: Hoorn (NED).
Status: offline
DoW Germany with the USA. You are in positions there and you need those TRS to be free for use ASAP, to start moving air and land units across the Atlantic. You aren't in a position to stay ashore on the European mainland and to lose an HQ is foolish, as is keeping a TRS/AMPH doing nothing but staying in a sea area to make sure the HQ can retreat (and that TRS might be subject to air attacks or a naval exploit by the Italians (or Germans). The USA hasn't got that much sealift yet (which is understandable), so they musn't put that in danger. Imagine: loosing two TRS to the Axis... Terrible... So no invasions of the European mainland in the surprise impulse, IMHO.
However: if you start building up an US army in Spanish Morocco together with French forces and a CW airforce, you can draw a lot of Axis units toward that region, since the Axis need to defend Morocco. Two US HQ's can do something, can't they. Don't forget those nice CBV the French get for free when you capture Morocco and Algeria... I would start building up an army there. Of course: the Azores should be cleared of the German presence...



< Message edited by Centuur -- 1/25/2012 6:04:31 PM >


_____________________________

Peter

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1567
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/25/2012 6:50:46 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
Looks like a 4-1 vote right now for Germany/Italy.

That's good for getting things prepared for an attack on Europe. Two things to note, though: Kwajalein is undefended with a USA MAR in Pago Pago stacked with a TRS . . . and anticipating an attack on Japan first (and later than M/J '41), my entire CV fleet is in either San Diego or Honolulu. There's a very good reason for this. I wanted to keep my Pearl Harbor fleet there so I could continue to adjust the Tension rolls, but I needed to swap out old CVP for new ones when the old ones dropped down a class at the beginning of the year. That meant using 3 impulses in all, to rebase the right CVP onto the CVs in San Diago (1), move 2 CVs from San Diego to Honolulu and 1 the other way (2) and then to do the reverse (3). Having only 4 impulses total during the first 2 turns made it so that I couldn't move those 3 CVs from San Diego back to Norfolk.

Don't know if this matters, but I probably should have mentioned it before the voting started.
-----
Edit: You can be sure that Japan won't leave Kwajalein empty once the USA is at war -- with anyone!

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 1/25/2012 6:51:33 PM >


_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Centuur)
Post #: 1568
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/25/2012 6:50:58 PM   
Orm


Posts: 22154
Joined: 5/3/2008
From: Sweden
Status: offline
As the situation looks in USSR it is more important for US go to war with Germany. Germany is much more dangerous than Japan. Besides, once US is at war with Germany US can go for unlimited naval warfare. As Japan I would probably DOW US at some point then. Germany has no reason to DOW USA. The suprise invasions US can do against Germany has limited impact.

Therefore I vote for a DOW on Germany.

_____________________________

Have a bit more patience with newbies. Of course some of them act dumb -- they're often students, for heaven's sake. - Terry Pratchett

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1569
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/25/2012 7:59:05 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
Okay, it looks like the votes are in. Germany and Italy, beware!!!
-----
I'll show you what would have happened if the USA went ahead with a DOW on Japan first, before I get to what actually happens with a DOW attempt on Germany and Italy. I actually ran this one first, fully intending to play it out, because it's what I thought everyone would expect . . . but as soon as a few voices started saying to DOW the EuroAxis first, I decided to stop in my tracks and let you guys decide.

The result of the DOW on Japan was a success:

USA attempts to DOW Japan at 60% odds, Roll = 2 = Success; USE-2 (3 chits moved, 16 of 18 [4], 3 of 17 [1], 13 of 16 [4])
USA moves no other chits
USA calls out its Reserves
USA sets up MIL in Washington and LA, MAR and MOT in Long Beach
USA aligns Panama; USE-6 (no chit)
USA sets up CAV and 5 CP in Panama City

But one of the side-effects took me completely off-guard. It moved the chances to DOW Germany and/or Italy down to 20%! That's because it raised Tension too high. It also would have meant that the USA probably wouldn't dare to pick any Options again until Entry was up again. In the image below, I've marked all of the most important options that would have been devastating not to pick soon.

If this had been a "real" game, it would have been a disaster. No refunds, folks. No going back. In this case, the USA would have actually benefitted from the German DOW on China by getting an extra chit this turn, but I fully expect Kunming to fall, so that extra chit would end up in the Ja Entry Pool for all future turns. Depending on how things played out, it might have set the USA back so far that Total War could not be reached until early 1942.
-----
Below is how things could have turned out, if the USA DOWed Japan first. My next post will be about what actually happened, with the double-DOW on Germany and Italy . . .




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Orm)
Post #: 1570
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/25/2012 8:07:49 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
And now for what really happened:

The DOW on Germany and Italy also succeeded!

USA attempts to DOW Germany and Italy at 60% odds, Roll = 3 = Success;
USE-8 (2 chits moved, 5 of 8 [2], 2 of 7 [1]) Germany
USE-5 (3 chits moved, 6 of 6 [6], 2 of 5 [1], 4 of 4 [3]) Italy
USA moves no other chits
USA calls out its Reserves
USA sets up MIL in Washington and LA, MAR and MOT in Philadelphia
USA aligns Panama; USE-7 (no chit)
USA sets up CAV and 5 CP in Panama City

In this case, the Japanese got a huge boost up to 90% chances . . . unless Japan realizes that the failure to move any other chits is an indication that the USA likes its odds as they are. And Japan does realize that.

So, Germany and Italy are now at war with the USA . . . and I'm still going to select a Combined Action for the United States, because it will allow me to make 2 invasions I think you'll like. At the very least, they will show that I can be tricky with the Allies offensively, given the chance. It's just defense that gives me trouble. But I'll show and explain that later. The key is that I need the Combined to take advantage of the surprise impulse and to set up some interesting options for the future.

I'll also give you a "sneek peak" at how Japan will respond (since I've had a lot of time to think about it). They won't. Not directly, anyway. They'll take the Naval Action that they were going to take anyway, send a unit to Kwajalein, prepare more invasions, set up naval defenses, and let the USA make the DOW. I should be able to limit the damage the USA can do, and I'd rather have the unlimited gearing limits than give them to the USA to use with 53 BP to spend. The only way a Japanese DOW would have value is if it could get me the Philippenes easily, while still allowing me to reinforce Kwajalein and perform other attacks later in the turn the way Japan wanted to. Since that isn't possible, I'll let the USA have its fun.
-----
Below is what actually happened, based on your voting:




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1571
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/25/2012 8:13:21 PM   
composer99


Posts: 2923
Joined: 6/6/2005
From: Ottawa, Canada
Status: offline
Obsolete post deleted.

< Message edited by composer99 -- 1/25/2012 8:20:13 PM >


_____________________________

~ Composer99

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1572
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/25/2012 8:20:30 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

Given how quickly US entry builds up once the US is in the war, you'd be surprised how quickly that number can bounce back.

Perhaps, but I certainly didn't like it when I saw it, and it would definitely have prevented the USA from going to Total War this turn, and probably the next one, too.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to composer99)
Post #: 1573
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/25/2012 9:56:59 PM   
Centuur


Posts: 8802
Joined: 6/3/2011
From: Hoorn (NED).
Status: offline
It's really foolish that I didn't realise that with the Japanese Entry being so high at 70, that the choice of who to declare war on had to be taken on this issue alone. By DoW'ing the Euroaxis, the entry with the Japanese is lowered in favour of tension there and that's exactly what the USA needed to make sure he can go to total war in this turn.
I think almost everybody here was totally focused on giving the USSR a break and therefore wanted the USA to DoW the Germans. Of course a valid thing to consider, but this sure means that you always need to calculate out the opportunity for the USA to declare war on the other party, before making a decision who to DoW. This could have resulted in a huge mistake, simply for not making a calculation... Terrible indeed...

Well: the Japanese aren't going to DoW the USA? I would do so in the next impulse, since as the Japanese I know the chanche of getting DoW'ed on by the USA is now so high, I won't want to get surprised. I know that the entry level of Japan is higher than it was of the Euroaxis. I also know that the tension level is at least 35 or more. If you add those together: DoW with Japan. Simply to prevent any nasty surprise invasions by that US MAR and to prevent any US SUB's which may get in range of my precious convoy points and start pounding them.


_____________________________

Peter

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1574
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/25/2012 10:17:12 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

It's really foolish that I didn't realise that with the Japanese Entry being so high at 70, that the choice of who to declare war on had to be taken on this issue alone. By DoW'ing the Euroaxis, the entry with the Japanese is lowered in favour of tension there and that's exactly what the USA needed to make sure he can go to total war in this turn.
I think almost everybody here was totally focused on giving the USSR a break and therefore wanted the USA to DoW the Germans. Of course a valid thing to consider, but this sure means that you always need to calculate out the opportunity for the USA to declare war on the other party, before making a decision who to DoW. This could have resulted in a huge mistake, simply for not making a calculation... Terrible indeed...

Thanks. I'm glad somebody said this.

quote:

Well: the Japanese aren't going to DoW the USA? I would do so in the next impulse, since as the Japanese I know the chanche of getting DoW'ed on by the USA is now so high, I won't want to get surprised. I know that the entry level of Japan is higher than it was of the Euroaxis. I also know that the tension level is at least 35 or more. If you add those together: DoW with Japan. Simply to prevent any nasty surprise invasions by that US MAR and to prevent any US SUB's which may get in range of my precious convoy points and start pounding them.

As the Japanese, I also know that the USA isn't in a position to use the Surprise to his advanatage. In fact, the only way to keep things safe for the convoys is not to DOW the USA and take a Naval impulse to put his SUBs in Manila out of Supply. The Marines in Pago Pago won't be able to reach anything vital, nor will the fleet in Honolulu -- without being obliterated afterwards. The core of the Japanese fleet isn't close enough to them right now. I'd rather force the USA to risk that 10% chance of not going to war and get unlimited gearing limits.

If I did DOW the USA, I'd feel compelled to do something stupid, like use a Combined Action to get troops into the Philippenes. The USA gains nothing by making the DOW. It just isn't ready for war yet, and Japan gains more by sticking to its own plans.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Centuur)
Post #: 1575
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/25/2012 10:21:52 PM   
composer99


Posts: 2923
Joined: 6/6/2005
From: Ottawa, Canada
Status: offline
quote:

The USA gains nothing by making the DOW.


Other than an extra 10 bp/turn and the chance to align Mexico & Brazil, of course.

That said, it should be be a long-ish turn, so the US doesn't have to try to DoW right away. If an extra impulse (or two) makes the difference in being able to do something effective during surprise and not, then take the time. Just make sure to attempt it this turn.

_____________________________

~ Composer99

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1576
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/25/2012 10:29:42 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

quote:

The USA gains nothing by making the DOW.


Other than an extra 10 bp/turn and the chance to align Mexico & Brazil, of course.

That said, it should be be a long-ish turn, so the US doesn't have to try to DoW right away. If an extra impulse (or two) makes the difference in being able to do something effective during surprise and not, then take the time. Just make sure to attempt it this turn.

Well, that's a problem for the USA. Once they see what Japan has planned (a plan which can be altered to annoy the USA), the Americans will be forced to make the DOW.

Yes, there's the 10 BP per turn. I was speaking strictly from a military point of view, but I think you knew that.
-----
Anyway, this shot below is why I like to have as many Strat Bombers as I can with the CW as early as I can. I put this one on the map this turn just to have an extra LND to throw at the Germans, not expecting any real use out of it. Well, I think the pilot decided to thumb his nose at me for leaving him in the Reserve Pool for over a year.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to composer99)
Post #: 1577
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/25/2012 10:37:00 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
Driven by hope that low odds rolls might succeed (after hearing about the success at Lille), the Soviets decided to try to put Guderian out of business, halting the German plans for Persia this turn.

So much for Russian Pilots . . .




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1578
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/25/2012 10:51:01 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
I'm working on Soviet land moves at the moment (railed the Moscow MIL to Kiev), so it'll probably be a while before I post what I've done, and then I'll likely leave it until morning.
-----
Just to ease your curiosity about what I have planned for the USA this impulse, I've got an invasion of the Azores set up and another one in Denmark. The second one, if I do it right, is combined with the return of the CW HQ-I Alexander from Murmansk. He set sail into the North Sea (with a solid defensive fleet this time), and will be ready to land where the invading forces end up next impulse -- and before the Germans can get rid of the invaders. With any luck, and a little planning, he might be able to stick it out long enough to divert a good number of German forces away from the USSR.

Anyway, I'll post my expected moves for the Soviets a little later. It's dinner time here.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1579
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/25/2012 11:28:22 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
Here's how the Persian Front is shaping up. The moves for this impulse have been made in the image below, and are indicated by the bigger arrows. The smaller arrows show the moves I expect to make next impulse, if all goes well.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1580
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 12:23:06 AM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
I'm working on the Vitebsk region right now. In the image below, everything to the right of the dotted white line is not yet settled, but everything to the left is, pretty much (except that I'm going to rebase the FTR).

Here are my reasons for putting such a forward defense in place:

1. Both the Dnepropetrovsk and Vitebsk factories were in danger of getting blocked from railing out this impulse, and I railed the wrong one. Minor mistake. I've figured out how to make sure the Dnepropetrovsk factory would be safe, but by then it was already done. So, I need the Vitebsk factory in the clear for another impulse.

2. This setup limits any attack on Pskov to a single river hexside.

3. The 5-4 INF can be put out of supply, and a Ground Strike would let it be overrun, but the only unit that can do that can't then get to a hex that would prevent the Vitebsk factory from railing out.

4. The 6-4 INF cannot be put out of supply, and while both it and the 5-4 could see a Breakthrough result, neither allows the factory to be threatened.

5. There is no way the Germans can attack the double-stack, even if both units are disorganized, and succeed. That's why the CAV is in the south. The double-stack is needed to make sure the 6-4 stays in supply and can't be overrun.

6. There are 4 units now vulnerable to attack on this front, but I doubt the Germans can get high odds on more than 2 of them. Well, maybe 3.

7. Even if the Germans manage to kill off all 4 frontline units, they've still gained only a hex or two on this front. With only 1 HQ in the area, and the front growing in length, this could become a problem for the Germans later in the turn.

8. Depending on how far back I retreated with these units, I'm willing to bet that 2-3 would be killed anyway. Isn't railing a factory and keeping the Germans from gaining 3-5 hexes worth an extra unit or 2 in the Destroyed Pool?
-----
Feel free to disagree with any of this, but remember that only the units on the left of that dotted line are ones that I am "set on". Unless you prove me completely wrong. Then I'll become "un-set".
-----
Edit: All German aircraft in this area are visible in the image below.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 1/26/2012 12:25:31 AM >


_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1581
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 12:31:45 AM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
One more note on the Vitebsk front: that's the last factory for another 7+ hexes, so if I can keep the Germans 2 hexes away from Vitebsk this impulse, that means I can go into full retreat for 2 more impulses before they threaten another factory in the North.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1582
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 1:33:05 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Here's how the Persian Front is shaping up. The moves for this impulse have been made in the image below, and are indicated by the bigger arrows. The smaller arrows show the moves I expect to make next impulse, if all goes well.




The calculation you need to do is the defensive strength of the hex divided by the number of hexsides from which the enemy can attack. For the wide black/blue you have Zhukov at 16, the 29th Inf hex at 14, and the 1st Cav hex at 7. That makes the end hex the target (25:14, going to 32:16 with air support by both sides). If you lose both those units to a lucky roll, you're in big trouble.

I would defend just 2 hexes: Zhukov = 16 and the 29th Inf with the 1st Cav for 10 (per hexside). The best the AXis can do is 25:20 --> 37:22 with air support. This leaves the 50th Inf in Tabriz.

For the finer black/blue, I have trouble following what you have diagrammed.

2nd USSR Impulse: given the units that will be available, Zhukov has to stay in the front line. None of the other units have his heft. I'd go for: Zhukov + 3-5 Cav = 22/HS, 7-3 + 3-4 = = 10/HS, and 4-3 + 1-4 = 11/HS. I would try to rail a unit into Tabriz so the 4-3 could move east next impulse. When the 5-3 Mil arrives, there will be enough bodies to fill in the last hex in the line to the east. There are no reserves then, but whadda goin' ado? Unless the Axis have more of their own units coming up this turn, the only attacks they will have are very dangerous, risking at least one of their good Mech units.

Compared to the rest of the USSR, this front is looking good - not ideal, mind you, but good.



_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1583
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 1:48:27 AM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets


quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Here's how the Persian Front is shaping up. The moves for this impulse have been made in the image below, and are indicated by the bigger arrows. The smaller arrows show the moves I expect to make next impulse, if all goes well.




The calculation you need to do is the defensive strength of the hex divided by the number of hexsides from which the enemy can attack. For the wide black/blue you have Zhukov at 16, the 29th Inf hex at 14, and the 1st Cav hex at 7. That makes the end hex the target (25:14, going to 32:16 with air support by both sides). If you lose both those units to a lucky roll, you're in big trouble.

I would defend just 2 hexes: Zhukov = 16 and the 29th Inf with the 1st Cav for 10 (per hexside). The best the AXis can do is 25:20 --> 37:22 with air support. This leaves the 50th Inf in Tabriz.

For the finer black/blue, I have trouble following what you have diagrammed.

2nd USSR Impulse: given the units that will be available, Zhukov has to stay in the front line. None of the other units have his heft. I'd go for: Zhukov + 3-5 Cav = 22/HS, 7-3 + 3-4 = = 10/HS, and 4-3 + 1-4 = 11/HS. I would try to rail a unit into Tabriz so the 4-3 could move east next impulse. When the 5-3 Mil arrives, there will be enough bodies to fill in the last hex in the line to the east. There are no reserves then, but whadda goin' ado? Unless the Axis have more of their own units coming up this turn, the only attacks they will have are very dangerous, risking at least one of their good Mech units.

Compared to the rest of the USSR, this front is looking good - not ideal, mind you, but good.

Unless Germany is willing to disorganize Guderian, there can be no attack on the first Axis impulse, so that is not a worry. The reason I aim to get Zhukov into the forest is the fear of a ground strike on him, but I suppose that's not the worst case scenario.

Germany has those 2 Divisions on the way over to add to the forces, and Italy can provide 15-20 land factors as well, in addition to the Iraqi CAV and MIL. Even if they weren't the right pick of units, as Germany I like the fact that this is tying up several units that the USSR really needs elsewhere.

I'm very tired right now, so I may be talking nonsense, but I do know that Germany can't attack until the USSR gets another impulse in.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 1584
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 1:49:35 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

I'm working on the Vitebsk region right now. In the image below, everything to the right of the dotted white line is not yet settled, but everything to the left is, pretty much (except that I'm going to rebase the FTR).

Here are my reasons for putting such a forward defense in place:

1. Both the Dnepropetrovsk and Vitebsk factories were in danger of getting blocked from railing out this impulse, and I railed the wrong one. Minor mistake. I've figured out how to make sure the Dnepropetrovsk factory would be safe, but by then it was already done. So, I need the Vitebsk factory in the clear for another impulse.

2. This setup limits any attack on Pskov to a single river hexside.

3. The 5-4 INF can be put out of supply, and a Ground Strike would let it be overrun, but the only unit that can do that can't then get to a hex that would prevent the Vitebsk factory from railing out.

4. The 6-4 INF cannot be put out of supply, and while both it and the 5-4 could see a Breakthrough result, neither allows the factory to be threatened.

5. There is no way the Germans can attack the double-stack, even if both units are disorganized, and succeed. That's why the CAV is in the south. The double-stack is needed to make sure the 6-4 stays in supply and can't be overrun.

6. There are 4 units now vulnerable to attack on this front, but I doubt the Germans can get high odds on more than 2 of them. Well, maybe 3.

7. Even if the Germans manage to kill off all 4 frontline units, they've still gained only a hex or two on this front. With only 1 HQ in the area, and the front growing in length, this could become a problem for the Germans later in the turn.

8. Depending on how far back I retreated with these units, I'm willing to bet that 2-3 would be killed anyway. Isn't railing a factory and keeping the Germans from gaining 3-5 hexes worth an extra unit or 2 in the Destroyed Pool?
-----
Feel free to disagree with any of this, but remember that only the units on the left of that dotted line are ones that I am "set on". Unless you prove me completely wrong. Then I'll become "un-set".
-----
Edit: All German aircraft in this area are visible in the image below.




Forget the Vitebsk factory. 1 BP more or less isn't going to matter. Losing 5 units on this front in the first impulse of the Axis turn means that you will lose all the units on this front by the end of the turn.

Unless I am mistaken, a successful ground strike by the Germans on the 2nd Inf and the 39th Inf will let them be disorganized and OOS after a couple of land moves. After 2 Iinfantry moves to isolated the target, the L Mech overruns the 2nd Inf (it moves west, NE, and east), letting the XXV Inf move to put the 39th Inf OOS so the XL Mech can overrun the 39th Inf. Then the other German infantry move up and perform a blitz attack on the 2 Siberians. There should be enough units left over to get an automatic on the 3rd Cav. 24 USSR factors dead in the first impulse.

Pull back, pull back, pull back! When you are out numbered 2:1 do not defend in clear hexes!

Count the number of hexes between Vitebsk and Gorki. You can give up all those hexes this turn. If you do not do so voluntarily, then the Germans will kill off the USSR units and blithefully skip their way to a rendezvous with the Japanese in some hex on the Trans-Siberian railroad.

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1585
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 1:58:36 AM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
I suppose this could be done. I didn't see the move the XXV INF could make, because I want to take out Riga. I don't like to leave enemies behind my lines when I only have a single HQ in a region. Even with Kaunas, I prefer to finish people off, so didn't think to use the 7-4 to get to that forest hex. By the way, both 7-4 INF are stacked with artillery, not with other INF.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 1586
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 2:00:09 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets


quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Here's how the Persian Front is shaping up. The moves for this impulse have been made in the image below, and are indicated by the bigger arrows. The smaller arrows show the moves I expect to make next impulse, if all goes well.




The calculation you need to do is the defensive strength of the hex divided by the number of hexsides from which the enemy can attack. For the wide black/blue you have Zhukov at 16, the 29th Inf hex at 14, and the 1st Cav hex at 7. That makes the end hex the target (25:14, going to 32:16 with air support by both sides). If you lose both those units to a lucky roll, you're in big trouble.

I would defend just 2 hexes: Zhukov = 16 and the 29th Inf with the 1st Cav for 10 (per hexside). The best the AXis can do is 25:20 --> 37:22 with air support. This leaves the 50th Inf in Tabriz.

For the finer black/blue, I have trouble following what you have diagrammed.

2nd USSR Impulse: given the units that will be available, Zhukov has to stay in the front line. None of the other units have his heft. I'd go for: Zhukov + 3-5 Cav = 22/HS, 7-3 + 3-4 = = 10/HS, and 4-3 + 1-4 = 11/HS. I would try to rail a unit into Tabriz so the 4-3 could move east next impulse. When the 5-3 Mil arrives, there will be enough bodies to fill in the last hex in the line to the east. There are no reserves then, but whadda goin' ado? Unless the Axis have more of their own units coming up this turn, the only attacks they will have are very dangerous, risking at least one of their good Mech units.

Compared to the rest of the USSR, this front is looking good - not ideal, mind you, but good.

Unless Germany is willing to disorganize Guderian, there can be no attack on the first Axis impulse, so that is not a worry. The reason I aim to get Zhukov into the forest is the fear of a ground strike on him, but I suppose that's not the worst case scenario.

Germany has those 2 Divisions on the way over to add to the forces, and Italy can provide 15-20 land factors as well, in addition to the Iraqi CAV and MIL. Even if they weren't the right pick of units, as Germany I like the fact that this is tying up several units that the USSR really needs elsewhere.

I'm very tired right now, so I may be talking nonsense, but I do know that Germany can't attack until the USSR gets another impulse in.

Then all is well here for at least 1 Axis impulse.

Actually, you should be fine on this front. Just watch the strength per hex numbers. If the Axis attack successfully, then you still have a solid secondary line of mountain hexes and a solid river line behind that. The farther the Aixs push you back, the easier supply becomes for the USSR and the harder it becomes for the Axis.

===

About being tired, ...

My opponent always made me move last in our gaming sessions, when we were both most tired. He had learned from bitter experience that if he let me study the map for a full week and then make my moves, his position was often lost. But if he went first at the start of the next week, when he was fresh, I had better have made excellent plans for all eventualities if I wanted to survive.

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1587
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 5:20:55 AM   
composer99


Posts: 2923
Joined: 6/6/2005
From: Ottawa, Canada
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

If the Germans go in in March/April, unless they get a long clear-weather turn they probably won't kill a whole lot of USSR units.

So I agree with Steve in building MOT and HQ-I Koniev. Also, the MECH should be produced. All of these units will arrive in the key July/August turn, as will any INF/GARR builds in March/April.

I found this post (#1299) while searching through for my last End of Turn report, since I like to do things in the same order each turn.

Well, it was a short turn, only 5 total impulses, and the Germans . . . hmmm . . . would you say they killed a whole lot of USSR units?


I am forced to concede this point (I don't like being wrong, but I'd rather be correct than be right, so to speak).

In my defence, there were an awful lot of USSR units sitting around in Bessarabia which were not able to escape in time due to the rain.

_____________________________

~ Composer99

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1588
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 5:27:40 AM   
composer99


Posts: 2923
Joined: 6/6/2005
From: Ottawa, Canada
Status: offline
Correct me if I'm wrong, but in Allied impulse #1, the USSR has railed out the Dnepropetrovsk factory and is looking to rail out the Vitebsk factory in Allied impulse #2.

This should be achievable by putting a sop unit in the Dvina bend hex (the one with rivers on four hexsides), and maybe a sop unit in one of the forest hexes south of Vitebsk. As long as the Axis can't get around to cut the rail line and as long as there are units in Vitebsk they should be able to rail out the factory even if the Axis are exerting ZoC. The GARR and CAV would be ideal sops

You should not need any of those INF currently shown (in the screenshot upthread) to be stuck in clear hexes facing down ARM/MECH.

< Message edited by composer99 -- 1/26/2012 5:29:51 AM >


_____________________________

~ Composer99

(in reply to composer99)
Post #: 1589
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 7:30:29 AM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

About being tired, ...

My opponent always made me move last in our gaming sessions, when we were both most tired. He had learned from bitter experience that if he let me study the map for a full week and then make my moves, his position was often lost. But if he went first at the start of the next week, when he was fresh, I had better have made excellent plans for all eventualities if I wanted to survive.

This is why I've been trying to get my Soviet moves done before I go to bed . . . so I can see what corrections need to be made in the morning, after you guys have had a chance to look them over. Ended up being too tired to finish that up this time, so I'm going to re-structure the North Front and work on the Dnieper Line. Then maybe I'll take another nap.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 1590
Page:   <<   < prev  51 52 [53] 54 55   next >   >>
All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> World in Flames >> After Action Report >> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) Page: <<   < prev  51 52 [53] 54 55   next >   >>
Jump to:





New Messages No New Messages
Hot Topic w/ New Messages Hot Topic w/o New Messages
Locked w/ New Messages Locked w/o New Messages
 Post New Thread
 Reply to Message
 Post New Poll
 Submit Vote
 Delete My Own Post
 Delete My Own Thread
 Rate Posts


Forum Software © ASPPlayground.NET Advanced Edition 2.4.5 ANSI

0.781