Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lothrim

I was wondering where the Moscow mil is hiding?. Is it hiding under the oil marker in Moscow ?
If so it should immidiateley rail to kiev, vitebsk or some other place where you intend to stand and die.

In general you will want germany to bruise himself on that mil every turn. Similarily with the Kharkow mil. Ideally they will die every turn only to pop right back up again. With Mil of cities you are going to lose the opposite is true. The Kiev MIL would be great in Leningrad, there it would probably sit in peace for a long time after Kiev is german controlled.

By railing into a critical hex you will become flipped, but ask yourself, will germany GS such a hex before he attacks it ?
Naturally he will do so and thus the effect of being flipped is not great since there is a 50% chance you would end up flipped anyway.

Generally it is ok to be flipped in places where you will make a stand no matter what. The risk is that germany will screen the strongpoint and move on, so pick that germany cannot advance without controlling.

quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

Given how quickly US entry builds up once the US is in the war, you'd be surprised how quickly that number can bounce back.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

It's really foolish that I didn't realise that with the Japanese Entry being so high at 70, that the choice of who to declare war on had to be taken on this issue alone. By DoW'ing the Euroaxis, the entry with the Japanese is lowered in favour of tension there and that's exactly what the USA needed to make sure he can go to total war in this turn.
I think almost everybody here was totally focused on giving the USSR a break and therefore wanted the USA to DoW the Germans. Of course a valid thing to consider, but this sure means that you always need to calculate out the opportunity for the USA to declare war on the other party, before making a decision who to DoW. This could have resulted in a huge mistake, simply for not making a calculation... Terrible indeed...

quote:

Well: the Japanese aren't going to DoW the USA? I would do so in the next impulse, since as the Japanese I know the chanche of getting DoW'ed on by the USA is now so high, I won't want to get surprised. I know that the entry level of Japan is higher than it was of the Euroaxis. I also know that the tension level is at least 35 or more. If you add those together: DoW with Japan. Simply to prevent any nasty surprise invasions by that US MAR and to prevent any US SUB's which may get in range of my precious convoy points and start pounding them.

quote:

The USA gains nothing by making the DOW.

quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

quote:

The USA gains nothing by making the DOW.

Other than an extra 10 bp/turn and the chance to align Mexico & Brazil, of course.

That said, it should be be a long-ish turn, so the US doesn't have to try to DoW right away. If an extra impulse (or two) makes the difference in being able to do something effective during surprise and not, then take the time. Just make sure to attempt it this turn.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Here's how the Persian Front is shaping up. The moves for this impulse have been made in the image below, and are indicated by the bigger arrows. The smaller arrows show the moves I expect to make next impulse, if all goes well.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Here's how the Persian Front is shaping up. The moves for this impulse have been made in the image below, and are indicated by the bigger arrows. The smaller arrows show the moves I expect to make next impulse, if all goes well.

The calculation you need to do is the defensive strength of the hex divided by the number of hexsides from which the enemy can attack. For the wide black/blue you have Zhukov at 16, the 29th Inf hex at 14, and the 1st Cav hex at 7. That makes the end hex the target (25:14, going to 32:16 with air support by both sides). If you lose both those units to a lucky roll, you're in big trouble.

I would defend just 2 hexes: Zhukov = 16 and the 29th Inf with the 1st Cav for 10 (per hexside). The best the AXis can do is 25:20 --> 37:22 with air support. This leaves the 50th Inf in Tabriz.

For the finer black/blue, I have trouble following what you have diagrammed.

2nd USSR Impulse: given the units that will be available, Zhukov has to stay in the front line. None of the other units have his heft. I'd go for: Zhukov + 3-5 Cav = 22/HS, 7-3 + 3-4 = = 10/HS, and 4-3 + 1-4 = 11/HS. I would try to rail a unit into Tabriz so the 4-3 could move east next impulse. When the 5-3 Mil arrives, there will be enough bodies to fill in the last hex in the line to the east. There are no reserves then, but whadda goin' ado? Unless the Axis have more of their own units coming up this turn, the only attacks they will have are very dangerous, risking at least one of their good Mech units.

Compared to the rest of the USSR, this front is looking good - not ideal, mind you, but good.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

I'm working on the Vitebsk region right now. In the image below, everything to the right of the dotted white line is not yet settled, but everything to the left is, pretty much (except that I'm going to rebase the FTR).

Here are my reasons for putting such a forward defense in place:

1. Both the Dnepropetrovsk and Vitebsk factories were in danger of getting blocked from railing out this impulse, and I railed the wrong one. Minor mistake. I've figured out how to make sure the Dnepropetrovsk factory would be safe, but by then it was already done. So, I need the Vitebsk factory in the clear for another impulse.

2. This setup limits any attack on Pskov to a single river hexside.

3. The 5-4 INF can be put out of supply, and a Ground Strike would let it be overrun, but the only unit that can do that can't then get to a hex that would prevent the Vitebsk factory from railing out.

4. The 6-4 INF cannot be put out of supply, and while both it and the 5-4 could see a Breakthrough result, neither allows the factory to be threatened.

5. There is no way the Germans can attack the double-stack, even if both units are disorganized, and succeed. That's why the CAV is in the south. The double-stack is needed to make sure the 6-4 stays in supply and can't be overrun.

6. There are 4 units now vulnerable to attack on this front, but I doubt the Germans can get high odds on more than 2 of them. Well, maybe 3.

7. Even if the Germans manage to kill off all 4 frontline units, they've still gained only a hex or two on this front. With only 1 HQ in the area, and the front growing in length, this could become a problem for the Germans later in the turn.

8. Depending on how far back I retreated with these units, I'm willing to bet that 2-3 would be killed anyway. Isn't railing a factory and keeping the Germans from gaining 3-5 hexes worth an extra unit or 2 in the Destroyed Pool?
-----
Feel free to disagree with any of this, but remember that only the units on the left of that dotted line are ones that I am "set on". Unless you prove me completely wrong. Then I'll become "un-set".
-----
Edit: All German aircraft in this area are visible in the image below.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Here's how the Persian Front is shaping up. The moves for this impulse have been made in the image below, and are indicated by the bigger arrows. The smaller arrows show the moves I expect to make next impulse, if all goes well.

The calculation you need to do is the defensive strength of the hex divided by the number of hexsides from which the enemy can attack. For the wide black/blue you have Zhukov at 16, the 29th Inf hex at 14, and the 1st Cav hex at 7. That makes the end hex the target (25:14, going to 32:16 with air support by both sides). If you lose both those units to a lucky roll, you're in big trouble.

I would defend just 2 hexes: Zhukov = 16 and the 29th Inf with the 1st Cav for 10 (per hexside). The best the AXis can do is 25:20 --> 37:22 with air support. This leaves the 50th Inf in Tabriz.

For the finer black/blue, I have trouble following what you have diagrammed.

2nd USSR Impulse: given the units that will be available, Zhukov has to stay in the front line. None of the other units have his heft. I'd go for: Zhukov + 3-5 Cav = 22/HS, 7-3 + 3-4 = = 10/HS, and 4-3 + 1-4 = 11/HS. I would try to rail a unit into Tabriz so the 4-3 could move east next impulse. When the 5-3 Mil arrives, there will be enough bodies to fill in the last hex in the line to the east. There are no reserves then, but whadda goin' ado? Unless the Axis have more of their own units coming up this turn, the only attacks they will have are very dangerous, risking at least one of their good Mech units.

Compared to the rest of the USSR, this front is looking good - not ideal, mind you, but good.

Unless Germany is willing to disorganize Guderian, there can be no attack on the first Axis impulse, so that is not a worry. The reason I aim to get Zhukov into the forest is the fear of a ground strike on him, but I suppose that's not the worst case scenario.

Germany has those 2 Divisions on the way over to add to the forces, and Italy can provide 15-20 land factors as well, in addition to the Iraqi CAV and MIL. Even if they weren't the right pick of units, as Germany I like the fact that this is tying up several units that the USSR really needs elsewhere.

I'm very tired right now, so I may be talking nonsense, but I do know that Germany can't attack until the USSR gets another impulse in.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

If the Germans go in in March/April, unless they get a long clear-weather turn they probably won't kill a whole lot of USSR units.

So I agree with Steve in building MOT and HQ-I Koniev. Also, the MECH should be produced. All of these units will arrive in the key July/August turn, as will any INF/GARR builds in March/April.

I found this post (#1299) while searching through for my last End of Turn report, since I like to do things in the same order each turn.

Well, it was a short turn, only 5 total impulses, and the Germans . . . hmmm . . . would you say they killed a whole lot of USSR units?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

About being tired, ...

My opponent always made me move last in our gaming sessions, when we were both most tired. He had learned from bitter experience that if he let me study the map for a full week and then make my moves, his position was often lost. But if he went first at the start of the next week, when he was fresh, I had better have made excellent plans for all eventualities if I wanted to survive.