LoBaron
Posts: 4776
Joined: 1/26/2003
From: Vienna, Austria
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quote:
ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
quote:
ORIGINAL: Miller
Sorry to drag this out further GJ, but I've just had another look at the big strike on your CVs. Your CAP managed to shoot down 25 a/c. Twenty-Five.
Lets all remember that only a handfull of F4Fs managed to shoot down 15 attacking Jap bombers at Midway. No matter how much of your CAP was out of position/scrambling/refuelling/taking a **** that is a ridiculous result. Hell you cannot even blame it on this "200 firing passes limit" that is being talked about. Something is just plain screwed.
I know miller. I have concerns too. Dont think i have not. The explanations given are logical but don't explain such a poor result. That's why i prefer to think about it as bad luck...one of those uncontrollable variables that sometimes kick in in RL events... I cannot do anything right now to change the outcome of this battle...so i eat the ****, swallow and move over...
Guys, just a small reminder: The combat report shows a much lower number of planes shot down than
actually have been killed. In some instances the real kill numbers are 2-5 times as high.
When you check the first strike you see 15 B7A2 Grace shot down by A2A.
Considering that only 192 Grace were able to launch torps, even deducting the planes
shot down by AA (17, where we don´t know how many reached weapon release point), you
still end up with at least 26 Grace which must have been killed in A2A.
The number is probably higher as I assumed all 17 AA kills to have happened before launch.
An educated guess would be at least 30 Grace killed by fighters alone, while the combat report shows 15.
If you use this number as basis, and expand this to the fighter losses, you end up with roughly
50 kills, maybe more for this single raid. Averaged out this means about every 7-8th pilot anywhere
in the contested airspace was able to score a kill. This number increases if you add up the
other waves (note: this also increases the number of CAP fighters involved obviousely).
If you take the low combat report estimates into account and only include strikes targeting the
CV groups, you end up with about every 3rd or 4th USN fighter pilot even remotely involved in CV fleet
defense action scoring a kill.
This is a conservative estimate, probably the true A2A losses were much higher.
The combat report has FOW in some instances while no FOW in others. a/c killed is one of the things highly
influenced by FOW, with a tendency to gravely underestimate true kill numbers.
The second thing I´d like to mention is: Never make the mistake of viewing a strike wave - or package, but
some react allergic to this designation  - separate from the overall action. Combat with this
number of planes involved happens over a high ammount of time and over a large area. Just because you
witness one part of an attack burning through the CAP like butter you cannot automatically conclude
that something is borked.
If you do that, you´d have to apply the same type of analysis to every single wave, and then you get
non values as results.
Look at this:
Japanese aircraft
B6N2 Jill x 66
J2M3 Jack x 22
N1K1-J George x 5
Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 97
F4U-1A Corsair x 330
F4U-1D Corsair x 127
F6F-3 Hellcat x 71
F6F-5 Hellcat x 547
Japanese aircraft losses
B6N2 Jill: 36 destroyed, 4 damaged
B6N2 Jill: 2 destroyed by flak
J2M3 Jack: 3 destroyed
N1K1-J George: 1 destroyed
Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1A Corsair: 1 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
If you consider the understatement of the combat report conerning A2A kills, probably 90-95%
of the total planes were shot down.
This is the same strike guys! This is not something where you can say, "oh, but this happened somewhere else".
< Message edited by LoBaron -- 1/26/2012 2:03:35 PM >
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