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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

 
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 6:59:31 PM   
composer99


Posts: 2923
Joined: 6/6/2005
From: Ottawa, Canada
Status: offline 		Choose the Assault table. It's got the best chance of disorganized Germans. If you can disorganize that many Germans in front of the Dneipr this early in the turn, it's worth losing that entire stack in Kiev. I see the Germans have an 80% chance of being disorganized on the 3:1 column and a 60% chance of becoming disorganized on the 4:1 column.

Assault, no question about it (IMO).

_____________________________

~ Composer99

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1711
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 7:05:13 PM   
Red Prince


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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

Choose the Assault table. It's got the best chance of disorganized Germans. If you can disorganize that many Germans in front of the Dneipr this early in the turn, it's worth losing that entire stack in Kiev. I see the Germans have an 80% chance of being disorganized on the 3:1 column and a 60% chance of becoming disorganized on the 4:1 column.

Assault, no question about it (IMO).

That's what I figured, but I'm often told I need to consider the Blitz table more often, so I wanted to get some opinions. I may not make any attacks on this front with the Germans this impulse. I need air power to make things work better, and I have a lot of air units that could come help out.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to composer99)
Post #: 1712
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 7:07:13 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets


quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Only 3 screenshots of the Soviet lines this impulse (they're shrinking!).

The North Setup:

In an attempt to hold the Leningrad region as long as possible, or at least to delay the Germans from the main front, I decided to rail the Sverdlovsk MIL to Novgorod. This creates a ZOC between Pskov and Novgorod that should help to buy that extra impulse. In the meantime, I railed the Lenigrad factory to Archangel, just in case this doesn't actually hold the rail lines.

I also figured out what Steve was talking about with using the swamps as end-points for the every-other-hex line. The top hex has 10 factors defense and the bottom has 6 factors -- as long as they remain in supply. I only used the MIL at the bottom because it is not likely to be attacked no matter what is put there. A MIL unit that can come back to fight another day is not appealing at all.

The most vulnerable hex is the clear hex to the east of Vitebsk. I placed 2 units with the ART in the hex behind it because if the ART gets used and an attack on that hex succeeds, this force is still something to be dealt with, and the ART will get to keep its full 3 factors. Then this hex can be part of the "new" line of defense, whatever that is.
-----
This area, for the Germans, is definitely going to need another HQ from somewhere. The approach to Leningrad and Novgorod is no longer looking like an easy ride. More on this in the next post.




Almost what I would have done.

I would have railed the Mil into Leningrad instead of Novgorod. I would have put 2 units in the southern swamp hex. I believe that rail movement bonus means they could have gotten there organized. The southern part of this front is weak. One of the Siberians stacked with the artillery should be down near Gomel to give it more balance.

I tried it, and the rail movement bonus didn't prevent the unit from being disorganized, so I didn't want to risk getting 2 units trapped there. The Siberians with the ART should be able to move south that far (Gomel forests) next impulse if that seems like a good idea.
-----
Edit: Forgot to say that the reason I railed it to Novgorod is that in Leningrad it is worth only 8, vs the 12 that the 6-3 can offer. I figured the ZOC would be more useful (and I also did this before I figured out what you intended with that swamp hex, so I thought the ZOC would be needed).

With 4 movement points Inf can move along rail lines through swamps. EDIT: But they weren't in position to do that; sorry.

As the Germans I would seriously consider attacking the 6-3 with 32 factors. If that succeeds, the USSR will need to rail another Mil into Leningrad to keep it full with 3 units this turn.

< Message edited by Shannon V. OKeets -- 1/27/2012 7:08:20 PM >

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1713
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 7:09:13 PM   
Centuur


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From: Hoorn (NED).
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Just testing out possibilities here.
-----
If I made this attack, it is 60:16 = 3:1 +1 with a 75% chance of 4:1 +1 odds. It involves a lot of Germans, including an HQ, so as the Soviets which CRT do I choose?




Assault, since that is the one that give the highest opportunity on the attackers getting disorganised. Yes, it's bloody on the USSR too, but getting that number or German units immobilized (or the HQ's which have to reorganise them) is always good.


_____________________________

Peter

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1714
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 7:12:57 PM   
composer99


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From: Ottawa, Canada
Status: offline 		IMO the Germans should just make any really good attacks they can manage this impulse (not Kiev) and bring up the airforce next impulse.

If the turn goes on for a long time the Germans will regret having too much army disorganized this early. If it's short they weren't going to make much progress anyway.

_____________________________

~ Composer99

(in reply to Centuur)
Post #: 1715
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 7:13:44 PM   
Red Prince


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From: Bangor, Maine, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets


quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Only 3 screenshots of the Soviet lines this impulse (they're shrinking!).

The North Setup:

In an attempt to hold the Leningrad region as long as possible, or at least to delay the Germans from the main front, I decided to rail the Sverdlovsk MIL to Novgorod. This creates a ZOC between Pskov and Novgorod that should help to buy that extra impulse. In the meantime, I railed the Lenigrad factory to Archangel, just in case this doesn't actually hold the rail lines.

I also figured out what Steve was talking about with using the swamps as end-points for the every-other-hex line. The top hex has 10 factors defense and the bottom has 6 factors -- as long as they remain in supply. I only used the MIL at the bottom because it is not likely to be attacked no matter what is put there. A MIL unit that can come back to fight another day is not appealing at all.

The most vulnerable hex is the clear hex to the east of Vitebsk. I placed 2 units with the ART in the hex behind it because if the ART gets used and an attack on that hex succeeds, this force is still something to be dealt with, and the ART will get to keep its full 3 factors. Then this hex can be part of the "new" line of defense, whatever that is.
-----
This area, for the Germans, is definitely going to need another HQ from somewhere. The approach to Leningrad and Novgorod is no longer looking like an easy ride. More on this in the next post.




Almost what I would have done.

I would have railed the Mil into Leningrad instead of Novgorod. I would have put 2 units in the southern swamp hex. I believe that rail movement bonus means they could have gotten there organized. The southern part of this front is weak. One of the Siberians stacked with the artillery should be down near Gomel to give it more balance.

I tried it, and the rail movement bonus didn't prevent the unit from being disorganized, so I didn't want to risk getting 2 units trapped there. The Siberians with the ART should be able to move south that far (Gomel forests) next impulse if that seems like a good idea.
-----
Edit: Forgot to say that the reason I railed it to Novgorod is that in Leningrad it is worth only 8, vs the 12 that the 6-3 can offer. I figured the ZOC would be more useful (and I also did this before I figured out what you intended with that swamp hex, so I thought the ZOC would be needed).

With 4 movement points Inf can move along rail lines through swamps. EDIT: But they weren't in position to do that; sorry.

As the Germans I would seriously consider attacking the 6-3 with 32 factors. If that succeeds, the USSR will need to rail another Mil into Leningrad to keep it full with 3 units this turn.

I have a similar, but slightly different strategic plan in mind. That would likely disorganize 4 of my best INF and an ARM Division. I don't want to do that just yet in this theatre.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 1716
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 7:18:44 PM   
Centuur


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From: Hoorn (NED).
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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

IMO the Germans should just make any really good attacks they can manage this impulse (not Kiev) and bring up the airforce next impulse.

If the turn goes on for a long time the Germans will regret having too much army disorganized this early. If it's short they weren't going to make much progress anyway.

I agree. That means taking an air impulse next with the Germans. Not that good, but with the German airforce lagging too far behind it should be done, just to make sure the Dnjepr will get cracked the impulse after that.

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Peter

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Post #: 1717
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 7:18:44 PM   
Red Prince


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From: Bangor, Maine, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

IMO the Germans should just make any really good attacks they can manage this impulse (not Kiev) and bring up the airforce next impulse.

If the turn goes on for a long time the Germans will regret having too much army disorganized this early. If it's short they weren't going to make much progress anyway.

Kiev is the only thing close to a really good attack I can make this turn, sadly. Until the airforce arrives, I am not likely to be able to get better than 2:1 odds on anything. That's because the Soviets are free to add as much Ground Support as they want, resulting in 5-6 disorganized Germans even if the attack succeeds.

The best attack I can manage here is a 2.111:1 Blitz on the forest hex to the east of Kiev, and that's the only hex I can attack without the threat of Ground Support.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to composer99)
Post #: 1718
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 7:21:35 PM   
Red Prince


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From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline 		So, do I risk the attack on Kiev? Or do I make no attacks this impulse?

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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

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Post #: 1719
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 7:21:43 PM   
Centuur


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From: Hoorn (NED).
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

IMO the Germans should just make any really good attacks they can manage this impulse (not Kiev) and bring up the airforce next impulse.

If the turn goes on for a long time the Germans will regret having too much army disorganized this early. If it's short they weren't going to make much progress anyway.

Kiev is the only thing close to a really good attack I can make this turn, sadly. Until the airforce arrives, I am not likely to be able to get better than 2:1 odds on anything. That's because the Soviets are free to add as much Ground Support as they want, resulting in 5-6 disorganized Germans even if the attack succeeds.

The best attack I can manage here is a 2.111:1 Blitz on the forest hex to the east of Kiev, and that's the only hex I can attack without the threat of Ground Support.

Don't attack Kiev. Let them live for now. Priority is to make sure the airforce get into play to get better odds and the possibility of ground strikes. Without Stuka's, the German army is only going to get disorganised...

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Peter

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Post #: 1720
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 7:29:00 PM   
composer99


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

So, do I risk the attack on Kiev? Or do I make no attacks this impulse?


It's up to you. If you feel lucky, go right ahead.

_____________________________

~ Composer99

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1721
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 7:29:38 PM   
Red Prince


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From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline 		You know what? I like taking risks. It's gotten me this far, so I'm going to go ahead and do it, stupid as it may be . . . (shiver).

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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Centuur)
Post #: 1722
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 7:33:28 PM   
Centuur


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From: Hoorn (NED).
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

You know what? I like taking risks. It's gotten me this far, so I'm going to go ahead and do it, stupid as it may be . . . (shiver).

Brave man... Very brave man...


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Peter

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Post #: 1723
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 8:09:49 PM   
Red Prince


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur


quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

You know what? I like taking risks. It's gotten me this far, so I'm going to go ahead and do it, stupid as it may be . . . (shiver).

Brave man... Very brave man...


Insane is more like it. But I am playing the role of that particular dictator, so insanity is just a bit of role-playing . . . yeah, that must be it . . .

I'm working on setting up my Japanese attacks right now. A lot of invasions, a few on the insane side of things. I'll have it all up soon.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

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Post #: 1724
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 9:07:03 PM   
Red Prince


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From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline 		Sorry that took so long to set up, but there were a lot of attacks/invasions to sort through, 8 in all:




And the results:

Attack on Kiev: Assault, Fractional Odds .960 (No), Roll = 9+1 = 10 = */2S (Not Converted, MIL and AT destroyed)
Attack on Coconada: Assault, Fractional Odds .074 (Yes), Roll = 5+1 = 6 = */2S
Attack on Kuching: Assault, Roll = Automatic = */2S
Attack on Brunei: Assault, Roll = Automatic = */2S
Attack on Aparri, Assault, Roll = 1+1 = 2 = 1/- (INF destroyed)
Attack on Philippines [104, 152]: Assault, Fractional Odds .376 (Yes), Roll = 5+1 = 6 = */2S
Attack on Vladivostok: Assault, Roll = 8 = */2S (SUB rebases to Petropavlovsk, CP intercepted using CL Katori, Roll: 4, Allied Roll: 8
.....Japan spends 8 Surprise Points to Increase Columns
.....Japan Destroys 3 CP
Attack on Guam: Assault, Roll = Automatic = */2S

As soon as I saw the Fractional Odds roll for Kiev, I was sure that I'd screwed up. But the German luck just seems to keep on holding. I selected the Siberian INF to save, because with so many INF left in the Force Pools now, it would be a long shot to get it again, and obviously I'll be rebuilding the Moscow MIL ASAP. Big sigh of relief when I saw that high roll here, let me tell you.

The reason it took so long to get through these is that I added Shore Bombardment and Ground Support to the non-Automatic invasions, but got confused with the weather and jungle hex for the Aparri attack. I took a lot of time realizing that I didn't need to add Ground Support because it wouldn't add anything to the attack. Not that it would have mattered. I miscalculated what the odds would be when planning the attack, rolled a '1' and lost the INF. At least the other invasion of the Philippines was a success (and that one included an HQ, too.

Most of the Automatic attacks were simply to secure territory already within the Japanese sphere of influence, but not yet controlled by Japan. I don't want to see any blue in this area if I can prevent it, and OOS Notionals not in a city pose no threat at all.

The port at Cocanada, India was a bit of a risk, but the Rain actually helped me here. If it had been Fine weather, the Notional Units would have been in supply and much more dangerous. I had enough Shore Bombardment to be sure of good odds, even with the Rain, so I took the risk, and the roll just paid off.

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1725
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 9:14:04 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline 		About defending Japan. In the actual war the Japanese were aware of the danger to their homeland which is why they spread out so far throughout the Pacific. They intended to defend the perimeter, not the home islands.

MWIF models this pretty well I think.

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1726
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 9:20:38 PM   
Red Prince


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From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline 		The rest of the impulse was used to rebase a FTR and LND to the Vitebsk region, a LND and NAV within range of Kunming, and to reorganize some air power.

It seems kind of a waste for Guderian, knowing that next impulse will be an Air Action, but he can't move forward again without getting out of supply yet. A route through Iraq, Turkey, or Persia needs to be secured first, and I'm working on that. So, he reorganized the LND that flew mediocre missions this impulse.

Similarly, it feels like a waste for Balbo to use only 2 of his 3 reorganization points to get the ATR back flying again, but I have a good reason for that. Beyond the fact that he, too, can't move forward without putting the entire front OOS, I want to be able to Air Transport the MTN unit again . . . this time into Persia to help the Iraqi MIL cut the rail lines to Teheran.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

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Post #: 1727
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 9:20:38 PM   
Centuur


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Joined: 6/3/2011
From: Hoorn (NED).
Status: offline 		First there was the continuous bad luck of the CW fleet not finding the Italians, than there was the bad luck in the way the Japanese captured Singapore, now Kiev... I must say the Axis are extremely lucky at points that really matter until now. Are you sure you aren't using loaded dice...  Wasn't there some great weather too in the first turn of war? Terrible, terrible... How are the allies ever going to win against this.
Beginners luck, probably...


< Message edited by Centuur -- 1/27/2012 9:21:36 PM >

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Peter

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Post #: 1728
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 9:29:00 PM   
Red Prince


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From: Bangor, Maine, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

First there was the continuous bad luck of the CW fleet not finding the Italians, than there was the bad luck in the way the Japanese captured Singapore, now Kiev... I must say the Axis are extremely lucky at points that really matter until now. Are you sure you aren't using loaded dice...  Wasn't there some great weather too in the first turn of war? Terrible, terrible... How are the allies ever going to win against this.
Beginners luck, probably...

As the German player, I'm actually starting to get nervous. I don't like how the Northern Front is foiling my plans. And I actually think that the bad weather this past winter kind of evened things out. The reason the air force is so far behind the lines is that they didn't have time enough to rebase from the Iberian campaign. Yes, it hurt the Russians, too, but I think we all expected Germany to be at least one river deeper into Russia than they are at the moment.

As for loaded dice, have you noticed that the rolls that are bad for the CW navy and good for the German army are both at the same end of the scale? Perhaps the dice are loaded? Then again, I've tried to make the majority of my attacks (until now) near certain victories. So, those rolls of '4' or '5' that result in a */2B aren't really a result of loaded dice, just loaded attacks.

Singapore, was lucky, as was this attack. But the odds favored the 4:1 CRT, and on that one, a '7' or higher would result in the same thing as the Germans got here. I do like the luck, though. For either side (when attacking). Taking the Azores away from the Germans without getting disorganized allowed MacArthur to reorganize a bunch of convoys to send out for setting up trade with Russia . . . he rolled a '10' on that attack.
-----
Edit: Not to mention that the Japanese have tried twice to find the CW convoy pipeline in the South Pacific, and they've failed both times.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Centuur)
Post #: 1729
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 9:35:00 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline 		Speaking of luck, here's the new weather roll . . . . it isn't a '4' again, but it has the same result. Fine weather everywhere except the N. Monsoon zone:




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1730
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 9:41:56 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline 		Once again, here's an overview of the Soviet lines. I think the question for the Soviets is if they believe the Germans will take an Air Action or a Land Action next. Do they hold their ground in the south, or do they retreat? In the north things are looking pretty safe . . . except for the far north. I know I said I wasn't heading for Leningrad (or at least that Rommel wasn't -- and he didn't), but squeezing through the gaps seemed to be the most prudent course of action for Germany, based on where they had units available.

I'll try to post more of my "extreme-flyout" sets tonight after I have dinner.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

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Post #: 1731
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 10:04:28 PM   
Centuur


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From: Hoorn (NED).
Status: offline 		I think I would stay in position along the Dnjepr. The German airforce isn't in range at the moment. The one unit however, which should move away from there is the HQ. It would be nice if he can get in the wood hex behind Kharkov and it is slow moving, so I don't think I would like him to stay along the river at this moment.

In the north, I would retreat the stack with the 6-4 one hex east and the stack with the gun goes into the city of Smolensk. The gun itself there doesn't move.
You might also go for a ground strike on the hex with the Stuka there, or is there a FTR in range? If so, don't.

The Leningrad MIL should move back into the city now, since otherwise he will be attacked, and being a lone unit, will be eliminated. The 5-3 north has got a problem. He cannot allow the Finns to move towards Moscow (if the turn is going to be really long, that's very dangerous, and another long turn will be coming next). However: he also can't allow the Finns the movement towards Novgorod. I think I would probably move him eastwards one hex. I don't know how the unified map is further north, but if Mannerheim can still be in supply in the hex the 5-4 is now in, the USSR has got a problem. I don't like putting the 5-3 into the swamp.

The rest of the USSR front looks as good as you can have it by now, so I suggest to wait and see what happens in the next Axis impulse. The German airforce is still to far away.

By the way: is the CW unit in Murmansk already at Petsamo? He should move, every opportunity you've got.





_____________________________

Peter

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1732
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 10:11:29 PM   
Red Prince


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From: Bangor, Maine, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

I think I would stay in position along the Dnjepr. The German airforce isn't in range at the moment. The one unit however, which should move away from there is the HQ. It would be nice if he can get in the wood hex behind Kharkov and it is slow moving, so I don't think I would like him to stay along the river at this moment.

In the north, I would retreat the stack with the 6-4 one hex east and the stack with the gun goes into the city of Smolensk. The gun itself there doesn't move.
You might also go for a ground strike on the hex with the Stuka there, or is there a FTR in range? If so, don't.

Yeah, there's a FTR with Rommel, next to the Stuka.

quote:

The Leningrad MIL should move back into the city now, since otherwise he will be attacked, and being a lone unit, will be eliminated. The 5-3 north has got a problem. He cannot allow the Finns to move towards Moscow (if the turn is going to be really long, that's very dangerous, and another long turn will be coming next). However: he also can't allow the Finns the movement towards Novgorod. I think I would probably move him eastwards one hex. I don't know how the unified map is further north, but if Mannerheim can still be in supply in the hex the 5-4 is now in, the USSR has got a problem. I don't like putting the 5-3 into the swamp.

The rest of the USSR front looks as good as you can have it by now, so I suggest to wait and see what happens in the next Axis impulse. The German airforce is still to far away.

Mannerheim is at his limit, unless he moves into the swamp hex -- and I've used that tactic before, but not this early in the turn.

quote:

By the way: is the CW unit in Murmansk already at Petsamo? He should move, every opportunity you've got.

I forgot to mention it, but yes, the 7-3 INF took Petsamo last impulse.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Centuur)
Post #: 1733
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 10:15:02 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline 		I hate to leave a gap, but in the south I might be able to use the stack with the MOT on top to reinforce other areas. That forest hex is now vulnerable to a much better attack, and if the HQ moves off the line (I don't think he can afford to), a breakthrough there could be devestating. The Soviets have another HQ coming in next turn, so if he dies, he dies. He only takes 3 turns to rebuild, anyway.
-----
Edit Just realized that a Breakthrough can't happen in that hex, since it's not on the rail line.

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 1/27/2012 10:16:01 PM >

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1734
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 10:27:49 PM   
composer99


Posts: 2923
Joined: 6/6/2005
From: Ottawa, Canada
Status: offline 		As long as the Germans can't get into a gap right away, there's no harm in having 1 or 2 hexes empty.

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~ Composer99

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1735
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 10:31:24 PM   
Centuur


Posts: 8802
Joined: 6/3/2011
From: Hoorn (NED).
Status: offline 		Move the HQ. You can fix the front there by moving units along the river line north from the point where the 3-2 MIL is in. I think that other MIL behind the front will be in time to get the gap closed. Koniev comes in next turn, that's good, however: the front is going to get a lot longer, since the Germans will force the Russians to leave the Dnjepr about three impulses from now. If the Dnjepr line is broken, the next line is a lot more difficult to hold (the factory line), because of favourable terrain for the Germans. Believe me, you need the HQ's.
An alternative is to move the HQ into the hex were the 3-2 MIL is in, putting it on the railline, so you can rail him out of there next impulse. However, that means a flipped HQ, which need to go to a save position far away, because the turn might continue for a long time. Also: I would like the spare rail move to move MIL units into the front. Are there still some that are far away? Or are they now all in the frontlines?


_____________________________

Peter

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1736
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 10:32:32 PM   
lomyrin


Posts: 3741
Joined: 12/21/2005
From: San Diego
Status: offline 		I would have aimed the German north foirces at Smolensk and merely have a few guarding units towards the Leningrad area. Once Germans have broken out to the east of Smolensk the entire southern Dnieper position would be untenable for the Russians and they would have to fall back towards their cities to the east. German units moving south from Smolensk ccan unravel the entire Dnieper defences.




(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1737
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/27/2012 10:47:25 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: lomyrin

I would have aimed the German north foirces at Smolensk and merely have a few guarding units towards the Leningrad area. Once Germans have broken out to the east of Smolensk the entire southern Dnieper position would be untenable for the Russians and they would have to fall back towards their cities to the east. German units moving south from Smolensk ccan unravel the entire Dnieper defences.

That's still the basic goal of this maneuver. The problem I've got is that I really don't have enough units to screen a flank this large. The benefit of going North is that I can get around behind the Northern front with Mannerheim using that rail line. At most, I need 3 units to completely block Leningrad and maintain the rail connection. Once Leningrad is screened, if the Soviets don't start a retreat toward Moscow, they're going to have major problems.

This move is also an attempt to force the Soviets to start railing a few units to Archangel, since they've sent 2 factories there (for the sake of lend-lease). If they don't do that soon, they'll have to place reinforcements there, and they might not be the right ones.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to lomyrin)
Post #: 1738
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/28/2012 12:59:27 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince


quote:

ORIGINAL: lomyrin

I would have aimed the German north foirces at Smolensk and merely have a few guarding units towards the Leningrad area. Once Germans have broken out to the east of Smolensk the entire southern Dnieper position would be untenable for the Russians and they would have to fall back towards their cities to the east. German units moving south from Smolensk ccan unravel the entire Dnieper defences.

That's still the basic goal of this maneuver. The problem I've got is that I really don't have enough units to screen a flank this large. The benefit of going North is that I can get around behind the Northern front with Mannerheim using that rail line. At most, I need 3 units to completely block Leningrad and maintain the rail connection. Once Leningrad is screened, if the Soviets don't start a retreat toward Moscow, they're going to have major problems.

This move is also an attempt to force the Soviets to start railing a few units to Archangel, since they've sent 2 factories there (for the sake of lend-lease). If they don't do that soon, they'll have to place reinforcements there, and they might not be the right ones.

What - Archangel? The distance from Leningrad to the nearest rail hex leading to Archangel is 10 hexes (as the Bf 109 flies). That rail line is not in danger. And I don't see how the Germans are going to maintain supply to any units that go wandering that far afield.

I agree with Peter to move the 5-3 on the Svir one hex east and move the Mil back into Leningrad. I would put two Inf (11 factors) next to the disorganized 5-3 in the swamp to keep him in supply. [EDIT: those units go due east of the 5-3 so they can only be attacked from 1 hex]. If the Germans want to attack him, they will have to get a lot of strength points against him. Since the Germans didn't move up next to the Russians in a lot of places, you have ample opportunity to tweak your line. Only retreat from the clear hex (as Peter said).

In Persia I would fall back to the optimal 4 (eventually 5) hex front. I would move Zhukov into the front line - his 16 factors really makes Axis attacks much more dangerous for the Axis. The corner hex should be the only hex that can be attacked from 2 hexsides so it has to get the better units.

< Message edited by Shannon V. OKeets -- 1/28/2012 1:01:00 AM >

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1739
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/28/2012 1:21:52 AM   
brian brian

 

Posts: 3191
Joined: 11/16/2005
Status: offline 		I was very disappointed no one besides Lothrim noticed or said anything about the extreme peril Rundstedt put himself in on the last German impulse. It rather reminded me of US Paratrooper General Matt Ridgeway standing under fire and pissing in the direction of the enemy. That is fine for a Major General to motivate his troops, but not so good for an HQ-A unit. I have written on here that I wouldn't recommend the Soviets take a risk of a counter-attack just because a couple Panzers get disorganized in front of them. But then I would never expect an opponent to leave an HQ-A all by it's lonesome with no bomber support and three wonderful hexes to attack it from.

I write this more for the AI programming. I am glad I would not have to do what Steve has to do in setting the exact number where reward > risk. An HQ-A is far, far more than a slightly expensive armor unit that can even add an odds level to it's own attack, about to simply be replaced by HQ-A Manstein in a few turns. In terms of the quantification every unit must have for the AI scripts, it should already be nearly priceless. In this game, right now it represents a full 25% of the size of the combat front the Germans can develop. Without it, they would have been down to 3 HQs on the Russian front, 2 of them slow ones, and they are about to leave the helpful depots in the Baltic States behind. This would significantly reduce the amount of threat they could exert on the Soviets, allowing them to concentrate their forces more in the threatened area. The amount of ground the Germans could cover in the "naked" turn (Jul/Aug, when the Russians have few, or in this game, near zero, reinforcements (much better to build only some MIL on the first turn to cover this problem)), would be greatly reduced without that HQ-A around. This would have gained lots of precious impulses for the upcoming defense of the Caucasus. I really hope however that risk <> reward is calculated, the AI would have taken this attack, because these rewards were worth a very great deal, and the risk was not all that great, and there was possibly even none at all....

I think a healthy majority of experienced WiF players would have gladly taken the 7-1, even with an unfortunate armor deficit keeping it from being an auto victory, with only a 30% chance of being disorganized. (It may have been worth some soak-off type air missions to drain the German FTR cover via Ground Strike on each HQ; one might even get through, but if not, the FTR cover is gone and the air could contribute more of the factors to the attack). Also an option would be to use the Soviet Offensive Chit, even on their worst HQ, to probably get the attack to 10-1, or reduce # of attacking units and still get a 7-1. A completely 'worth it' calculation on spending the chit.

Even at about a maximum possible of 5-1, or maybe even lower, my only hard decision would have been whether to hand out the 6 glorious Guards Banner Army points to 2 units, or 3? Maybe the attackers would disorganize, but either way Rundstedt is gone, and even the disorganized victors would go up quite a bit in combat power, probably enough to cost the Germans a fair bit of effort/time to kill them in place (and Timoshenko could be sacrificed later on instead and just re-org 4 of them if O-Chit used). Oh, and I would hand out 3 GBA promotions if the factors worked out, cuz each and every one of those units on the map demoralizes the Germans with the knowledge of their impending doom for impetuously invading the Motherland. The tinge of red on their counters also gives the Germans flashbacks to every Russian player's favorite wargame unit, the Berserkers: (pity the internet doesn't have an example image of the 6-2-8 instead.)


(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 1740
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