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Back again, The Ki-44......... - 1/31/2012 12:37:19 AM   
SuluSea


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Hi all, I don't see a reason to invest R&D into the first mode but I ran some tests so far on the Ki-44 and Ki-44-IIa . I'm wondering how the Ki-44-IIb is going to fair in comparison to the earlier IIa model. I think we saw how woeful the accuracy of some of these cannons are when it comes to accuracy on the Ki-45's. The IIc with the (4)12.7mm Ho-103 MG looks to be the model of choice. I'll run some tests to see how each fair over 10 bomb runs.

The setup is a unit of 20 B-24D's attack Takao at 7,000 ft on a 12 hex run from Manila. Leaders of the 2 opposing air units have identical stats and will stay that way thoughout. Waiting at Takao is the 101st Sentai of Ki-44'swith 36 planes at 100% CAP/ 10,000 ft. Both units were flying from level 7 airfields.

Thanks again for tracker.




< Message edited by SuluSea -- 1/31/2012 12:50:00 AM >

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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 1/31/2012 12:49:37 AM   
SuluSea


Posts: 2358
Joined: 11/17/2006
Status: offline 		In these two images I added results of both planes just to see how many were downed by the B-24D.




Ki-44 results- 
97 serviceable 
46 damaged 
21 write offs 
35 air to air kills
1 Flak loss

Ki-44 casualties
6 damaged
4 write offs
2 air to air kills


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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 1/31/2012 12:59:48 AM   
SuluSea


Posts: 2358
Joined: 11/17/2006
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Ki-44 results-
97 serviceable
46 damaged
21 write offs
35 air to air kills
1 Flak loss

Ki-44 casualties
6 damaged
4 write offs
2 air to air kills


Ki-44-IIa results- 
78 serviceable 
52 damaged 
24 write offs 
46 air to air kills


Ki-44-IIa casualties 
11 damaged 
6 write offs
2 air to air kills


I'm wondering if the IIa model got more hits on target because of the additional max speed, luckier die rolls or a combination of the two?

It will be a few before I can finish this up as I'll be occupied over the next couple days.



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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 1/31/2012 1:18:24 AM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		Keep up the good work, SuluSea!

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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 1/31/2012 4:34:17 AM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
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From: Maryland
Status: offline 		The IIa is the best fighter in the game until the hellcat arrives. Then it starts to get a bit long in the tooth. However, I would think that a Japanese player would want to produce the IIc late into the war. Like the Allied p40 it is a solid frame and useful due to its one service rating at a time when the more advanced Japanese stuff carries poor service ratings.

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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 1/31/2012 4:43:38 AM   
btbw

 

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Status: offline 		with ki-44c you will have 47-49 kills i think

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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 1/31/2012 4:46:23 AM   
Chickenboy


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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: btbw

with ki-44c you will have 47-49 kills i think

Better armament should account for higher kills, IMO. I'd say 55-60.

The Ki-44IIc has 4x12.7mm MG, the IIa has 2x12.7, 2x7.7mm. The rifle caliber is very underwhelming against heavy bombers-at least the larger cal weapons have a decent chance of inflicting damage.

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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 1/31/2012 6:55:49 AM   
Puhis


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quote:

ORIGINAL: SuluSea

I'm wondering how the Ki-44-IIb is going to fair in comparison to the earlier IIa model. I think we saw how woeful the accuracy of some of these cannons are when it comes to accuracy on the Ki-45's.


Ki-44-IIb is a good fighter. That 40 mm gun won't hit anything, but IIb have CL-mounted 12,7 mm MGs that have better accuracy than IIa's MGs.

Obviously Ki-44-IIc is the best.

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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 1/31/2012 12:29:19 PM   
SuluSea


Posts: 2358
Joined: 11/17/2006
Status: offline 		Hi all, I haven't been sleeping well so I got to do a 10x run this morning. (I blame the developers of this great game)



Ki-44 results-
97 serviceable
46 damaged
21 write offs
35 air to air kills
1 Flak loss

Ki-44 casualties
6 damaged
4 write offs
2 air to air kills


Ki-44-IIa results-
78 serviceable
52 damaged
24 write offs
46 air to air kills


Ki-44-IIa casualties
11 damaged
6 write offs
2 air to air kills


Ki-44-IIb results- 
86 serviceable 
54 damaged 
20 write offs 
40 air to air kills 

Ki-44-IIb casualties
9 damaged 
6 write offs 
9 air to air kills

I know I'm a master of the obvious but that 40mm cannon must not be hitting much at all. My question is are the smallish 7.7 mm type 89's going to be more effective in the ops loss dept. as the B-24D gets stretched out? I think after the IIc is complete in a few days I'll add more distance to  the mission and run a couple over. Most likely the IIa vs the IIb. The IIb A2A losses have soared a great deal from the earlier models, how much that could be from bad die rolls who knows? 

I've always used the gun value column as my guide as far as upgrading but if I've learned anything the past few days is you can't always trust it. We'll see what happens later on in the week with this again.

Thoughts, anyone? 






< Message edited by SuluSea -- 1/31/2012 12:31:45 PM >

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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 1/31/2012 1:20:25 PM   
obvert


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Status: offline 		Does the lack of accuracy from the canons mean that the IIb might stay longer in the battle thus increasing the kill ration of the gunners on the B-24s?

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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 1/31/2012 5:03:09 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		Great testing, Sulu. I'm really benefitting from your insomnia!

I think this shows what we have suspected regarding the IIa v. IIb lines. Looking forward to seeing the IIc tests and conclusions derived thereof.

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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 2/1/2012 1:06:48 AM   
SuluSea


Posts: 2358
Joined: 11/17/2006
Status: offline 		OK all, I had more time than I anticipated this evening so here's the IIc results.  It's kinda in the ballpark where we'd thought it would be, being the dominant airframe of the bunch. We can see the air losses by the IIc are still high compared to the first two tests. I'm surprised by that because of the armor. I doubt the 26 to 24 manuever rating between the two that landed on the good or bad side would have that much effect if does at all. We'll have to keep an eye on that.

Next up to the plate is going to be B-24D vs. the IIa & IIb at longer distances.

Ki-44 results-
97 serviceable
46 damaged
21 write offs
35 air to air kills
1 Flak loss

Ki-44 casualties
6 damaged
4 write offs
2 air to air kills


Ki-44-IIa results-
78 serviceable
52 damaged
24 write offs
46 air to air kills


Ki-44-IIa casualties
11 damaged
6 write offs
2 air to air kills


Ki-44-IIb results-
86 serviceable
54 damaged
20 write offs
40 air to air kills

Ki-44-IIb casualties
9 damaged
6 write offs
9 air to air kills

Ki-44-IIc results- 
78 serviceable 
31 damaged
21 write offs 
70 air to air kills

Ki-44-IIc casualties 
7 damaged 
7 write offs
9 air to air kills



Thoughts anyone?

< Message edited by SuluSea -- 2/1/2012 1:12:08 AM >

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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 2/1/2012 2:09:05 AM   
perkinh


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Status: offline 		Thank you for the great work Sulu...this is very informative.

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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 2/1/2012 5:06:49 AM   
Chickenboy


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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: SuluSea
Thoughts anyone?

Yes:

1. Love the play testing.
2. As expected, perhaps moreso. The Tojo IIa and IIc are where it's at. The others in the series are less impressive.

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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 2/1/2012 7:43:31 AM   
String


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From: Estonia
Status: offline 		I'd love to see results comparing the Frank vs. Tojo

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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 2/1/2012 8:16:41 AM   
Elladan

 

Posts: 300
Joined: 8/18/2005
From: Manchester, UK
Status: offline 		Thanks for your efforts Sulu, really good to have some in-game tests to compare different models. Just one comment here - as I have mentioned elsewhere, it would be really good for the accuracy of your results if you could test bigger battles, say 200-250 airframes on each side (you can define as many as 255 a/c per airgroup in the editor). 2-3 of such, restarting the game before each to reset the random seed, would give you rock solid results with minimal effort.
One more thing, could you define the labels you use in your results reports (e.g. serviceable etc)? I'm a little bit confused at the moment ;)

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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 2/1/2012 11:48:58 AM   
SuluSea


Posts: 2358
Joined: 11/17/2006
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Elladan

Thanks for your efforts Sulu, really good to have some in-game tests to compare different models. Just one comment here - as I have mentioned elsewhere, it would be really good for the accuracy of your results if you could test bigger battles, say 200-250 airframes on each side (you can define as many as 255 a/c per airgroup in the editor). 2-3 of such, restarting the game before each to reset the random seed, would give you rock solid results with minimal effort.
One more thing, could you define the labels you use in your results reports (e.g. serviceable etc)? I'm a little bit confused at the moment ;)


Hi Elladan, thanks for the comments. I saw you mentioned it before but it would require too much accounting for me and am not positive the results would be any more concrete than what we've seen. I'm playing AE and also reformatting my R&D plan to go along with this.

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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 2/1/2012 12:02:35 PM   
SuluSea


Posts: 2358
Joined: 11/17/2006
Status: offline 		I remembered a few days ago  Ian (The Elf) speaking about centerline guns vs wing mounted in a thread and found it. So I wanted to bring it to peoples attention who haven't read it.


quote:

ORIGINAL:  TheElf
It would be most correct to state that the Air Team differentiates between Centerline and wing mounted accuracy.  Centerlines are more accurate than wing guns.  The effect of this is that Centerline packages have a higher hit percentile, so for the weak IJ fighters, you'll see more hits, but not necessarily mass destruction.  For the US centerline armed A/C like the P-38, they tend to be VERY effective.
Additionally we installed code that optimizes wing gun accuracy at a convergence point, nominally at Range 3, and decreasing outside of that.  Range 3 now equates to 300 yds.




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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 2/1/2012 12:30:25 PM   
Elladan

 

Posts: 300
Joined: 8/18/2005
From: Manchester, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: SuluSea


quote:

ORIGINAL: Elladan

Thanks for your efforts Sulu, really good to have some in-game tests to compare different models. Just one comment here - as I have mentioned elsewhere, it would be really good for the accuracy of your results if you could test bigger battles, say 200-250 airframes on each side (you can define as many as 255 a/c per airgroup in the editor). 2-3 of such, restarting the game before each to reset the random seed, would give you rock solid results with minimal effort.
One more thing, could you define the labels you use in your results reports (e.g. serviceable etc)? I'm a little bit confused at the moment ;)


Hi Elladan, thanks for the comments. I saw you mentioned it before but it would require too much accounting for me and am not positive the results would be any more concrete than what we've seen. I'm playing AE and also reformatting my R&D plan to go along with this.


Would actually mean less work than what you do now as you only need to update 2 fields in the editor, at the same time as you change the aircraft model. And then you save on turns run which take much more time.
As to the validity of the results - one of the most important things in statistics is the size of the sample. In your case you use only a handful of planes on each side, so there will be only a dozen or two air combat routine iterations made. Now if you increase numbers you suddenly start getting results based on hundreds of combats calculated. That's enough for them to converge to the mean greatly, thus giving you very precise and accurate result. Something you can then use as a benchmark to compare different things with each other. A very important thing trust me, you wouldn't like to base your whole R&D strategy on a results that you find a year into the game were just a lucky roll and the frame you spend so much time and supply on is actually a crap, would you?

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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 2/1/2012 12:58:53 PM   
Puhis


Posts: 1737
Joined: 11/30/2008
From: Finland
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: SuluSea


quote:

ORIGINAL: Elladan

Thanks for your efforts Sulu, really good to have some in-game tests to compare different models. Just one comment here - as I have mentioned elsewhere, it would be really good for the accuracy of your results if you could test bigger battles, say 200-250 airframes on each side (you can define as many as 255 a/c per airgroup in the editor). 2-3 of such, restarting the game before each to reset the random seed, would give you rock solid results with minimal effort.
One more thing, could you define the labels you use in your results reports (e.g. serviceable etc)? I'm a little bit confused at the moment ;)


Hi Elladan, thanks for the comments. I saw you mentioned it before but it would require too much accounting for me and am not positive the results would be any more concrete than what we've seen. I'm playing AE and also reformatting my R&D plan to go along with this.


You get much better results doing what you're doing now. If you run tests using 200 vs. 200 planes, most of the CAP fighters are not going to intercept and most of the bombers just fly unchallenged.

I presume in your tests detection range and time is quite short?


quote:

ORIGINAL: Elladan

As to the validity of the results - one of the most important things in statistics is the size of the sample.


Even more important thing in statistics is replicates, I mean real replicates, not pseudo...

< Message edited by Puhis -- 2/1/2012 1:00:39 PM >

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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 2/1/2012 1:08:55 PM   
SuluSea


Posts: 2358
Joined: 11/17/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Elladan


quote:

ORIGINAL: SuluSea


quote:

ORIGINAL: Elladan

Thanks for your efforts Sulu, really good to have some in-game tests to compare different models. Just one comment here - as I have mentioned elsewhere, it would be really good for the accuracy of your results if you could test bigger battles, say 200-250 airframes on each side (you can define as many as 255 a/c per airgroup in the editor). 2-3 of such, restarting the game before each to reset the random seed, would give you rock solid results with minimal effort.
One more thing, could you define the labels you use in your results reports (e.g. serviceable etc)? I'm a little bit confused at the moment ;)


Hi Elladan, thanks for the comments. I saw you mentioned it before but it would require too much accounting for me and am not positive the results would be any more concrete than what we've seen. I'm playing AE and also reformatting my R&D plan to go along with this.


Would actually mean less work than what you do now as you only need to update 2 fields in the editor, at the same time as you change the aircraft model. And then you save on turns run which take much more time.
As to the validity of the results - one of the most important things in statistics is the size of the sample. In your case you use only a handful of planes on each side, so there will be only a dozen or two air combat routine iterations made. Now if you increase numbers you suddenly start getting results based on hundreds of combats calculated. That's enough for them to converge to the mean greatly, thus giving you very precise and accurate result. Something you can then use as a benchmark to compare different things with each other. A very important thing trust me, you wouldn't like to base your whole R&D strategy on a results that you find a year into the game were just a lucky roll and the frame you spend so much time and supply on is actually a crap, would you?



Sorry, I didn't take in you meant 2-3 turns. I'll run the 10x with the smaller units then expand and run 2 turns with the larger ones and we'll see what happens.


quote:

ORIGINAL: String

I'd love to see results comparing the Frank vs. Tojo

We'll field certain airframes against each other (as discussed in another thread?).

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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 2/1/2012 1:14:26 PM   
SuluSea


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Joined: 11/17/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Puhis



I presume in your tests detection range and time is quite short?




Here's a typical combat report throughout.

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Dec 07, 41
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 11th Air Fleet, at 84,65 (Takao)

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 8 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 36



Allied aircraft
B-24D Liberator x 15


No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-24D Liberator: 3 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
76 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 20 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled



Aircraft Attacking:
15 x B-24D Liberator bombing from 7000 feet (90th BG/321st BS / Fifth USAAF)
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
101st Sentai with Ki-44-IIa Tojo (12 airborne, 24 on standby, 0 scrambling)
12 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters to 10000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 22 minutes


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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 2/1/2012 1:18:12 PM   
Puhis


Posts: 1737
Joined: 11/30/2008
From: Finland
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: SuluSea


quote:

ORIGINAL: Puhis



I presume in your tests detection range and time is quite short?




Here's a typical combat report throughout.

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Dec 07, 41
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 11th Air Fleet, at 84,65 (Takao)

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 8 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes



Yeah, there's no point trying 200 vs 200 plane tests...

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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 2/1/2012 1:41:52 PM   
Elladan

 

Posts: 300
Joined: 8/18/2005
From: Manchester, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Puhis


quote:

ORIGINAL: SuluSea


quote:

ORIGINAL: Puhis



I presume in your tests detection range and time is quite short?




Here's a typical combat report throughout.

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Dec 07, 41
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 11th Air Fleet, at 84,65 (Takao)

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 8 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes



Yeah, there's no point trying 200 vs 200 plane tests...



Well yes, that makes the whole situation kind of irrelevant.

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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 2/1/2012 2:03:17 PM   
frankycee

 

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Status: offline 		So huh I'm looking for opinions.

Is R&D better spent on Ki-44 IIb or on N1K1 Georges?  I'm in June 1942 and i'm starting to need defensive fighters to ward off and shoot down 4E... i'm now producing a good amo unt of 44IIa's (and some older Oscars for long range escort...) ... but i've just switched some R&D to Goerges...but seems to me that the 3 service rating of the George will be a problem compared tp the Tojos' 1 service rating...

opinions welcomed

also, should i be sopending production on Nicks, or should i switch them to Tojos or something else in the fighter department?


< Message edited by frankycee -- 2/1/2012 2:20:10 PM >

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RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 2/1/2012 2:30:35 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: frankycee

So huh I'm looking for opinions.

Is R&D better spent on Ki-44 IIb or on N1K1 Georges?  I'm in June 1942 and i'm starting to need defensive fighters to ward off and shoot down 4E... i'm now producing a good amo unt of 44IIa's (and some older Oscars for long range escort...) ... but i've just switched some R&D to Goerges...but seems to me that the 3 service rating of the George will be a problem compared tp the Tojos' 1 service rating...

opinions welcomed

also, should i be sopending production on Nicks, or should i switch them to Tojos or something else in the fighter department?


Well, I'd say spend the research on the Tojo IIb. Not because it's that great a fighter, but so that you can get to the "c" model that much sooner and 'roll' the research over. It will be more difficult to get the IIc in a timely manner if you don't do this.

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Post #: 26
RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 2/1/2012 5:38:35 PM   
SuluSea


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Joined: 11/17/2006
Status: offline 		Hi Guys, again unexpected time to perform these tests.

Setup was the very same as before but I changed the base from Manila to Naga. In the editor I gave Naga a size 7 airfield with 15,000 supply and also moved forces from Manila to Naga.

To Refresh.

The setup is a unit of 20 B-24D's attack Takao at 7,000 ft on a 16 hex run from Naga. Leaders of the 2 opposing air units have identical stats and will stay that way thoughout. Waiting at Takao is the 101st Sentai of Ki-44'swith 36 planes at 100% CAP/ 10,000 ft. Both units were flying from level 7 airfields.


Ki-44-IIa results- 
111 serviceable 
43 damaged 
13 write offs 
33 air to air kills


Ki-44-IIa casualties 
4 damaged
6 write offs 
4 air to air losses

Ki-44-IIb results- 
104 serviceable 
50 damaged 
19 write offs 
27 air to air kills

Ki-44-IIb casualties 
5 damaged 
10 write offs 
3 air to air losses

Here are the totals between the two for the 20 runs-

Ki-44-IIa results-
189 serviceable
95 damaged
37 write offs
79 air to air kills

Ki-44-IIa casualties
15 damaged
12 write offs
6 air to air losses

Ki-44-IIb results-
190 serviceable
104 damaged
39 write offs
67 air to air kills

Ki-44-IIb casualties
14 damaged
16 write offs
12 air to air losses



I can't speak for everyone and I understand the testing window is on the small side but for me the results show that the Ki-44-IIa is not a step down from the Ki-44-IIb. I'd argue if engaged in combat the additional 2 in maneuver rating plus the 7.7mm centerline with the 12.7mm on the wings would be more effective against fighters. When only considering this production line, I believe it's the better overall choice against bombers and fighters until the Ki-44-IIc comes along.

Really a thought for a different thread but  I have plans to research it but only to the point of moving it up enough where I can get the IIc model  *ASAP.  (* I only believe in researching the next model in the upgrade path, then moving on and not using repaired research from earlier airframes to skip models.)

Air to air losses were down for the IIb this run but overall losses were still a tick higher than the IIa as you see 13 to 10.

Someone earlier asked what "serviceable" meant, it's planes in operating condition the following day.

I'd really like to move on to the Ki-61 line.

Any thoughts or ideas are welcome.











< Message edited by SuluSea -- 2/1/2012 5:48:01 PM >

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Post #: 27
RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 2/1/2012 6:10:31 PM   
Elladan

 

Posts: 300
Joined: 8/18/2005
From: Manchester, UK
Status: offline 		Wouldn't it be useful to check their performance against escorted raids and separately against sweeps? And definitely, comparison with Ki-61 and perhaps some later Ki-43 models would be welcome as well.

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Post #: 28
RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 2/1/2012 6:42:53 PM   
SuluSea


Posts: 2358
Joined: 11/17/2006
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Elladan

Wouldn't it be useful to check their performance against escorted raids and separately against sweeps? And definitely, comparison with Ki-61 and perhaps some later Ki-43 models would be welcome as well.

With variables such as pilot training , leaders, morale, and other influences on combat I'm afraid that may not help much. Really the same could be said for testing against unescorted bombers but I'm trying to seek out what weapons are working better than others for the most part.

However, If I have enough time I'd like to do some fighter on fighter at some point.

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"There’s no such thing as a bitter person who keeps the bitterness to himself.” ~ Erwin Lutzer

(in reply to Elladan)
Post #: 29
RE: Back again, The Ki-44......... - 2/1/2012 7:43:27 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		Hey SuluSea,

Enjoying the ongoing tests. If you had a spare moment, do you think you could run the Ki-44 IIc tests? I'm very interested to see if our guesses about efficacy hold any water compared to the Ki-44 IIa. Of course, we're just moochers of your time and effort (), but whatever hard testing you can provide would be much appreciated.



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(in reply to SuluSea)
Post #: 30
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