Red Prince
Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
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ORIGINAL: Centuur
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ORIGINAL: Red Prince
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ORIGINAL: Centuur
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ORIGINAL: Red Prince
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ORIGINAL: Centuur
By the way: move the Irkutsk MIL two hexes west. You don't want a lucky low odds attack by the Japanese which might get that unit killed this turn. Since you cannot counterattack and the USSR is low on units, it's time for low odds attacks to make more kills, especially if you've got cheap INF/TERR units you can afford to lose. AS the Japanese, I would make that attack. Why not: if it fails: I lose nothing. If it succeeds: I might gain a lot, since this means that the USSR needs to put one of the reinforcements in Ulan Ude and that is of assistance to the Germans.
I know, I'm kind of moving backwards through this post. 
As Japan, I wouldn't kill the MIL unless I remain organized and/or don't risk losing a unit myself. The Irkutsk MIL will come back just a few hexes away from Ulan Ude. The Manchurian TERR will have to rail all the way back here.
Ahh. But you are mistaken here. The USSR can't afford spending two BP on rebuilding that MIL. He needs all build points for units build and put against the Germans. So: if the Japanese kill the MIL, this has the effect of one unit less against the Germans. I don't think as the USSR I can affort the loss of that MIL. So as the Japanese: I will attack it, even with a 1-1 attack. The Japanese can affort to lose those units, the USSR can't. If you can't affort the worst result, don't go for it. This goes for offense but also for defense...
However, since it's a TERR attacking a regular unit in the mountains, it would be a 1:2 -1 Assault, and that has only a 20% chance of killing the unit and means certain death for the TERR. The other units can't move up to help, since they are all disorganized, so it is a pointless waste of 2 BP by the Japanese . . . and they need their BP for rebuilding and repairing the 3 Class-4 CVs that the Wallies swatted down this turn. They'd also like to build a factory, too, as well as the Burma TERR and the Kunming Warlord. And then there is the severe lack of FTR units they have on the map . . . the Japanese can't afford to waste units any more than the Soviets can, really -- not if they want to win.
You aren't going to attack with the TERR alone. You are attacking with the other Japanese infantry unit too. That means the die roll isn't going to get lowered. But hey: it's your game.
Also: building a factory with the Japanese? Aren't there other things he needs? Building factories with the Japanese means 8 build point less units to use against the big bad green monster, who will be at astronomical production before game end anyway. The priority of the Axis should be the total destruction of the USSR. Everything else is only defensive now (even the attacks the Japanese are doing on other parts of the world). If the USSR isn't toast in J/A next year, it's all over folks. That factory won't get resources, because of the relentless attacks of the USA and CW Subs, planes and fleet anyway in about two years time. You are better off building NAV, CV, CVP, FTR, ships and a lot of convoy points. Never build a factory with the Japanese. Statistically, you need 9-10 turns of production, before the amount invested is coming back to you.
Building factories is only something the Germans might do, if they have spare resources. Have you build all SYNTH with the Japanese? Those are far more important than factories. Believe me, if in two years time the USSR is still existing, the USA and the CW are really hammering you're convoys. If it is killed (or only Tashkent remains), the Germans can send you build points and oil across Vladivostok, thus shortening the very vulnerable Japanese convoy lines.
The TERR is the only unit that can attack at the moment -- until next turn, in fact.
The Japanese now have more resources than they can use. They've already started building 2-3 more convoy points each turn, and their 1st SynthOil is up and running . . . their 2nd one will be finished in M/A '42 . . .
That's the same turn a new factory would arrive if I built it now. So, I expect to get the 9-10 turns use out of it easily. I don't know that I will build it this turn, because I really want to build up the fleet, but it is an option.
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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH
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