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China's first Aircraft Carrier undergoing Sea Trials - 2/9/2012 1:40:37 PM   
JohnDillworth


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RE: China's first Aircraft Carrier undergoing Sea Trials - 2/9/2012 3:20:27 PM   
Titanwarrior89


Posts: 3283
Joined: 8/28/2003
From: arkansas
Status: offline 		Strange to see a Chinese aircraft carrier.....Not good.

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RE: China's first Aircraft Carrier undergoing Sea Trials - 2/9/2012 3:26:09 PM   
Historiker


Posts: 4742
Joined: 7/4/2007
From: Deutschland
Status: offline 		A pure prestige thing. Good enough to impress Brunai about the spratley islands, but that's almost it.

It will take at least two decades until China has a carrier force to be taken seriously and until china has developed the necesarry doctrines, gained the experience etc. The PLN will have two or three bigger carriers and a the small training carrier they have now by 2030 while the US still have huge carrier fleet.

The J-20 in combination with the ballistic anti carrier missiles are way more important as they force the USN out of the first island chain in the event of a conflict.

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Post #: 3
RE: China's first Aircraft Carrier undergoing Sea Trials - 2/9/2012 3:59:56 PM   
5thGuardsTankArmy


Posts: 89
Joined: 1/23/2011
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Historiker

A pure prestige thing. Good enough to impress Brunai about the spratley islands, but that's almost it.

It will take at least two decades until China has a carrier force to be taken seriously and until china has developed the necesarry doctrines, gained the experience etc. The PLN will have two or three bigger carriers and a the small training carrier they have now by 2030 while the US still have huge carrier fleet.

The J-20 in combination with the ballistic anti carrier missiles are way more important as they force the USN out of the first island chain in the event of a conflict.



+1

(in reply to Historiker)
Post #: 4
RE: China's first Aircraft Carrier undergoing Sea Trials - 2/9/2012 4:04:39 PM   
Ghost99

 

Posts: 10
Joined: 2/2/2012
Status: offline 		Even if a conflict turns hot how much ASW doctrine will the Chinese fleet have. I suspect that each chineses carrier will have its shadow that will put paid on them quickly.

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Post #: 5
RE: China's first Aircraft Carrier undergoing Sea Trials - 2/9/2012 4:16:52 PM   
JohnDillworth


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Joined: 3/19/2009
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quote:

A pure prestige thing. Good enough to impress Brunai about the spratley islands, but that's almost it.

I've heard it described as proof of concept. They expect to learn from this and build their own. As for dates when they might be fielding a bunch of CV's? They can build a building in a day, a city in a month. I would not bet against China.

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Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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RE: China's first Aircraft Carrier undergoing Sea Trials - 2/9/2012 4:24:39 PM   
Historiker


Posts: 4742
Joined: 7/4/2007
From: Deutschland
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

A pure prestige thing. Good enough to impress Brunai about the spratley islands, but that's almost it.

I've heard it described as proof of concept. They expect to learn from this and build their own. As for dates when they might be fielding a bunch of CV's? They can build a building in a day, a city in a month. I would not bet against China.

There are rumors that they already have laid keel to one or two carriers some time ago.
But while building "a carrier" is rather simple, building a "good and usefull carrier" is a different thing.

_____________________________

Without any doubt: I am the spawn of evil - and the Bavarian Beer Monster (BBM)!

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RE: China's first Aircraft Carrier undergoing Sea Trials - 2/9/2012 4:32:22 PM   
Titanwarrior89


Posts: 3283
Joined: 8/28/2003
From: arkansas
Status: offline 		Their leadership system is much quicker than ours.....its more direct and lets do it than the U.S..

_____________________________

"Before Guadalcanal the enemy advanced at his pleasure. After Guadalcanal, he retreated at ours".

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RE: China's first Aircraft Carrier undergoing Sea Trials - 2/9/2012 4:37:04 PM   
Historiker


Posts: 4742
Joined: 7/4/2007
From: Deutschland
Status: offline 		Even if they had 10 CVs already, they wouldn't be a match. Carrier isn't carrier.
They neither have the planes, nore the pilots, nore the doctrin. It will also take decades until they have the necessary admirals. Not to mention the appropriate escort ships.

Nice toys look good, but you must know how to use them. Otherwise its like Gaddafi's Libya: Many weapons but nobody knowing how to put them into use.

_____________________________

Without any doubt: I am the spawn of evil - and the Bavarian Beer Monster (BBM)!

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Post #: 9
RE: China's first Aircraft Carrier undergoing Sea Trials - 2/9/2012 5:21:12 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Historiker

A pure prestige thing. Good enough to impress Brunai about the spratley islands, but that's almost it.

It will take at least two decades until China has a carrier force to be taken seriously and until china has developed the necesarry doctrines, gained the experience etc. The PLN will have two or three bigger carriers and a the small training carrier they have now by 2030 while the US still have huge carrier fleet.

The J-20 in combination with the ballistic anti carrier missiles are way more important as they force the USN out of the first island chain in the event of a conflict.


Our HUGE carrier fleet is down to...what 10 CVN? This will require further strengthening of the Pacific Fleet. One can darned well bet that the current US Administration won't counter by laying down a single US CVN. Definitely NOT GOOD.


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(in reply to Historiker)
Post #: 10
RE: China's first Aircraft Carrier undergoing Sea Trials - 2/9/2012 5:51:20 PM   
Historiker


Posts: 4742
Joined: 7/4/2007
From: Deutschland
Status: offline 		Considering the price of a CVN, the US has no choice but to establish new land bases in the first island chain.
The DF-21D and the J-20 will be way too dangerous for a CSG, so the US CVs will have to stay outside their effective range when it comes to china.

Without an effective US deterrence, there'll be the "greek solution" for Taiwan within the next 20 to 25 years. This means, Taiwan will face such a pressure that it either integrates into China or changes its policies in a way that it becomes a chinese dominion. If that happens, the rest of china's neighbours will face the fact that they can't rely on significant US assistance any more. They'll be forced to arrange themselves with china. These arrangements will include expelling the US forces and setting their foreign policy accordingly.

I have no doubt that the US carrier force will still be able to destroy any chinese carrier force in the middle of the pacific in 2060, but what counts is, that the pro-US governments close to China aren't forced to bow for Bejing.
Clinton was able to stop the chinese by sending two carriers off their coast. This time will be over, soon - considering the two gamechangers stated above.

So if the US seek to keep free pro-western governments - or at least pro-western governments- at its side, I see no other choice but to arm the allies and increase the own landbased forces significantly. Not selling the F-22 to Japan was a big mistake in that big picture.

< Message edited by Historiker -- 2/9/2012 5:56:59 PM >

_____________________________

Without any doubt: I am the spawn of evil - and the Bavarian Beer Monster (BBM)!

There's only one bad word and that's taxes. If any other word is good enough for sailors; it's good enough for you. - Ron Swanson

(in reply to John 3rd)
Post #: 11
RE: China's first Aircraft Carrier undergoing Sea Trials - 2/9/2012 6:48:07 PM   
Yaab


Posts: 4552
Joined: 11/8/2011
From: Poland
Status: offline 		How many torpedo sorties? AA rating? Any coordination penalty in 2012? 

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Post #: 12
RE: China's first Aircraft Carrier undergoing Sea Trials - 2/9/2012 6:57:42 PM   
JWE

 

Posts: 6580
Joined: 7/19/2005
Status: offline 		Yep. China now has some Naval air capability. It’s not hard to understand. A very large nation, finally getting itself organized, doing military bicep curls in a very chaotic world political situation.

Bad juju for Taiwan, but China is still developing its forces on a regional level. They’re not thinking in terms of Mahan-style global power projection. They have no interests beyond their littoral consolidations and protection of their energy and resource supply routes in the China Sea, Red Sea, and Indian Ocean regions.

What they want is a Greater China co-prosperity sphere with access to the resources in the Asian provinces of Siberia, and free access to Mideast oil. So long as the Middle Kingdom is percolating along, China don’t give a rat’s patoot what the rest of us do.

We could do ‘em, but what would be the point? They are not looking to bounce anybody. And don’t really give a crap about anybody else. We might/could protect Taiwan for a while, and that wouldn’t be a bad thing. But that burbling pot is already is already flowing one soup into another. I can foresee a major Taiwanese impact on the mainland, much like Hong Kong, but more fundamental. Taiwan has always wanted to go back to the mainland, and they are damn near there already.

One must consider Chinese military hardware developments in light of Chinese political objectives. And yes, they are much more consistent, internalized, long-term planners than we could ever imagine. But one must consider China’s political and social/economic objectives, in order to put their military developments in a proper perspective.


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Post #: 13
RE: China's first Aircraft Carrier undergoing Sea Trials - 2/9/2012 7:24:27 PM   
Icedawg


Posts: 1610
Joined: 1/27/2006
From: Upstate New York
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JWE

Yep. China now has some Naval air capability. It’s not hard to understand. A very large nation, finally getting itself organized, doing military bicep curls in a very chaotic world political situation.

Bad juju for Taiwan, but China is still developing its forces on a regional level. They’re not thinking in terms of Mahan-style global power projection. They have no interests beyond their littoral consolidations and protection of their energy and resource supply routes in the China Sea, Red Sea, and Indian Ocean regions.

What they want is a Greater China co-prosperity sphere with access to the resources in the Asian provinces of Siberia, and free access to Mideast oil. So long as the Middle Kingdom is percolating along, China don’t give a rat’s patoot what the rest of us do.

We could do ‘em, but what would be the point? They are not looking to bounce anybody. And don’t really give a crap about anybody else. We might/could protect Taiwan for a while, and that wouldn’t be a bad thing. But that burbling pot is already is already flowing one soup into another. I can foresee a major Taiwanese impact on the mainland, much like Hong Kong, but more fundamental. Taiwan has always wanted to go back to the mainland, and they are damn near there already.

One must consider Chinese military hardware developments in light of Chinese political objectives. And yes, they are much more consistent, internalized, long-term planners than we could ever imagine. But one must consider China’s political and social/economic objectives, in order to put their military developments in a proper perspective.



+1

But aren't political threads like this forbidden on this forum? You know, the old politics/religion saying - "Nothing starts a good fight better than a mention of politics or religion."

I'm bettin' this is going to get locked in a hurry.

(in reply to JWE)
Post #: 14
RE: China's first Aircraft Carrier undergoing Sea Trials - 2/9/2012 8:24:37 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		I think Taiwan and China have more in common than they did 20 years ago. I suspect some sort of reconciliation will eventually take place. There does not seem to be any rush so perhaps this one will work itself out peacefully over time.
I would not be surprised if China was develop a blue water navy. As mentioned above they do not seem to have any great expansionist ambitions, but they can't help but notice how the US has used their carriers as force projectors. CV's would be the least of U.S. worries if there were a hot war. I don't think U.S carriers would stray too close to China's increasing land based aircraft and missile abilities. I believe current U.S. strategy is not to defend forward anyway. Too vulnerable. Valuable Naval units would remain behind the Marshall islands until the treat of a first strike passed. Land based air in Korea or Japan seems a better option than naval based. I guess the good news is things are quite and peaceful.

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Icedawg)
Post #: 15
RE: China's first Aircraft Carrier undergoing Sea Trials - 2/9/2012 8:43:45 PM   
fcharton

 

Posts: 1112
Joined: 10/4/2010
From: France
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JWE
But one must consider China’s political and social/economic objectives, in order to put their military developments in a proper perspective.


This is a very important aspect. Chinese internal affairs, and especially power struggles in the Party, determine foreign and military policy and China's attitude towards her neighbours and other powers. This is all the more true as a change of leadership is due this year and as the governement and the Party believe (rightly imho) that the current economic crisis threatens social stability.

As such, the carrier trials belong more to domestic news than foreign affairs. I think they should be read as a strong gesture from the left/nationalist wing of the Party, at a time when it seems more and more clear that the next generation of leaders (like the current one) will be relatively weak, and rule through a loose alliance of factions.

Francois





< Message edited by fcharton -- 2/9/2012 8:53:01 PM >

(in reply to JWE)
Post #: 16
RE: China's first Aircraft Carrier undergoing Sea Trials - 2/9/2012 8:56:56 PM   
AW1Steve


Posts: 14507
Joined: 3/10/2007
From: Mordor Illlinois
Status: offline 		I really don't see anything ominous about China building a CV. India has operated CV's since 1949. Many nations operate CV-vstol ships including Thailand,Japan, the Republic of Korea , Spain , Italy (2), the UK 1 (+2 in reserve) and along with the USN (11 CVN's and 10-14 LHD/LHP equivalent to a "Harrier carrier) Brasil (The Sao Paulo , a former French CV) and of course France 1CVN. And that doesn't count the Russian CV.

The race to CV's has just as much to do with national pride as anything else. Right now the USN has more CV's then the rest of the world combined. So rather than see any real competition (except perhaps local...say India vice China) I'm hoping it might lead to a cooling off instead. Maybe those navies can do things together....like stomp out piracy!

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Post #: 17
RE: China's first Aircraft Carrier undergoing Sea Trials - 2/9/2012 11:52:51 PM   
jmalter

 

Posts: 1673
Joined: 10/12/2010
Status: offline 		the thing's been undergoing sea-trials for months, since August 2011. which is about 60 times longer than the Washington Free Beacon has existed. So there's no need to get all arrigated by the WFB's defense policy analysis.

read the story about the tow from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_ex-Varyag, her tow-lines parted in the Aegean during a force-9 gale & she drifted for 4 days!

saw on a BBC web-page that PLAN had built a full-size mock-up on land, presumably for deck-training purposes.

(in reply to AW1Steve)
Post #: 18
RE: China's first Aircraft Carrier undergoing Sea Trials - 2/10/2012 6:53:15 AM   
LoBaron


Posts: 4776
Joined: 1/26/2003
From: Vienna, Austria
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JWE

Yep. China now has some Naval air capability. It’s not hard to understand. A very large nation, finally getting itself organized, doing military bicep curls in a very chaotic world political situation.

Bad juju for Taiwan, but China is still developing its forces on a regional level. They’re not thinking in terms of Mahan-style global power projection. They have no interests beyond their littoral consolidations and protection of their energy and resource supply routes in the China Sea, Red Sea, and Indian Ocean regions.

What they want is a Greater China co-prosperity sphere with access to the resources in the Asian provinces of Siberia, and free access to Mideast oil. So long as the Middle Kingdom is percolating along, China don’t give a rat’s patoot what the rest of us do.

We could do ‘em, but what would be the point? They are not looking to bounce anybody. And don’t really give a crap about anybody else. We might/could protect Taiwan for a while, and that wouldn’t be a bad thing. But that burbling pot is already is already flowing one soup into another. I can foresee a major Taiwanese impact on the mainland, much like Hong Kong, but more fundamental. Taiwan has always wanted to go back to the mainland, and they are damn near there already.

One must consider Chinese military hardware developments in light of Chinese political objectives. And yes, they are much more consistent, internalized, long-term planners than we could ever imagine. But one must consider China’s political and social/economic objectives, in order to put their military developments in a proper perspective.



JWE, I see the potential implications of China flexing their naval air muscles a bit more dangerous than
you do.

The difference between China and the US might soon be one of staying power only.

Agreed, China will not match US CVN fleets in capability within 50 years at least, but they don´t
need to to pose a threat to the current US/Western power projection capabilities, and bring the
global raw material race to a new level.

The last 10 years have shown Chinas interest in several regions more distant than Chinese littorial, Japan,
Taiwan and the IO.
They started heavy economical investments worldwide, with a focus on raw materials in the ressource rich
regions of Western Africa, the Middle East and Southern America. That the long term interest is to keep
those investements and develop the ability to protect or expand them by diplomatic and military means is
quite clear.

Even 2 CVs with modern hardware will enable them to bring their power projection abilities to a new dimension.
They won´t be on eye level with the US in terms of capability and staying power, but in the conflicts for ressources
short to mid term they do not need to.
It is enough that they will be able to place naval air surpassing any small countries airforce next to the
African coast to bring the global situation concerning important raw materials to a new level.

So, while short term I see it in a similar way as you, and China got local interests more pressing to them than
the global game, it can be very well viewed as a threat to Western interests in the mid future.
The recent global developements, the latest and current being the revived Falkland conflict, which is also fuelled
by the search for and aquisition of raw materials, already hint what - as the Argentinan President stated as well -
the wars of the 21st Century will be about. Not neccesarily US vs. China, but maybe China against small countries
in ressource rich regions which are currently out of reach and only accessible for the US and the NATO.

I think we currently see the initial phases of such a developement, China reacting to the economic threat
posed to them by ressource grabbing of the Western global players.

It will be interesting times ahead, to say at least.

_____________________________


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Post #: 19
RE: China's first Aircraft Carrier undergoing Sea Trials - 2/10/2012 5:30:33 PM   
JWE

 

Posts: 6580
Joined: 7/19/2005
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: LoBaron
JWE, I see the potential implications of China flexing their naval air muscles a bit more dangerous than
you do.
<>
It will be interesting times ahead, to say at least.

Mebbe so. Some very cogent points you make there Snoopy.

Every now and than, when I get the opportunity to kick back and sit and think and stink about things, in a comfy vacuum, this little worm in the back of my brain keeps saying that sometimes magnification of a threat and the build-up of forces and rhetoric to address that threat have the unfortunate consequence of compelling that magnified threat into being.

Don't think your thoughts and mine are that much different, they just look at the issue from two different perspectives: always a valuable thing to do.

Geo/political discussions like this are excellent when considered in the context of the WiTPAE game. It's all about resources, in far away places, yeah? For sure, China has the inside track on East Africa and the Red Sea (c.f. Japan and DEI/Burma). They got political influence in South America but that's because (as you imply very correctly) South America is struggling to find itself in the new world order. And we (the US) sure as $hit ain't helping.

The historical lessons of the Pacific War could be quite informative in this context. My personal opinion is that the Pacific War was not "really" part of the European war against fascism. Rather, it was a very different conflict, economically driven and conceptually divorced from the war in Europe, although it shared the time-frame (and the leaders got hugger-mugger, for lack of an alternative) and everything got subsumed in general hysteria of the time.

Perhaps think of China as Japan was back then. Just coming out of a strange, internal hiatus and looking towards the western power centers and thinking "yeah, I can do this, too" and there is an artist's pallette of goodies out there and "damn, I need some infusions to keep my nation growing strong and robust. So what do I need? What can I take? And how do I go about it?"

Geo/political stuff is so cool. Thanks Snoopy, for your perspective.

Ciao. John

< Message edited by JWE -- 2/10/2012 5:35:51 PM >

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Post #: 20
RE: China's first Aircraft Carrier undergoing Sea Trials - 2/10/2012 6:46:51 PM   
LoBaron


Posts: 4776
Joined: 1/26/2003
From: Vienna, Austria
Status: offline 		The comparisions you make hit the mark.

I have to thank for your perspective.


Cheers,

Lenny

_____________________________


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Post #: 21
RE: China's first Aircraft Carrier undergoing Sea Trials - 2/10/2012 6:55:45 PM   
Sardaukar


Posts: 9847
Joined: 11/28/2001
From: Finland/Israel
Status: offline 		I think one reason of Chinese Navy growth is that they are extremely depending on imported raw materials (see the similarity with Japan). Especially oil. If oil and raw material flow from Africa and Middle East would stop, Chinese economy would grind to halt. So they want to be able to project power to keep those sea lanes open.

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Post #: 22
RE: China's first Aircraft Carrier undergoing Sea Trials - 2/11/2012 1:29:03 AM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

A pure prestige thing. Good enough to impress Brunai about the spratley islands, but that's almost it.

I've heard it described as proof of concept. They expect to learn from this and build their own. As for dates when they might be fielding a bunch of CV's? They can build a building in a day, a city in a month. I would not bet against China.

ditto.

Some countries have a habit of underestimating their oriental opponents.

_____________________________

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Post #: 23
RE: China's first Aircraft Carrier undergoing Sea Trials - 2/11/2012 2:40:56 AM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

A pure prestige thing. Good enough to impress Brunai about the spratley islands, but that's almost it.

I've heard it described as proof of concept. They expect to learn from this and build their own. As for dates when they might be fielding a bunch of CV's? They can build a building in a day, a city in a month. I would not bet against China.

ditto.

Some countries have a habit of underestimating their oriental opponents.

Guys, it's a second-hand CV. Let's not over-interpret its regional importance. A Virginia class SSN would wipe the sea floor with this puppy and its escort and be home in time for drinks before dinner.

_____________________________


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Post #: 24
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