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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 3/2/2012 3:29:19 PM

Canoerebel

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11/21/42

The Islands: Japan is reinforcing Singkep with 144th Regiment. An Allied deliberate attack at Muntok, preceded by a heavy 4EB raid, failed pretty badly. This is just what the doctor ordered, because it should keep Steve focused on these two bases rather than Singkawang. The Allies don't intend to lose Muntok - it's too important - but Singkep may be another matter. It's too close to Singapore to take long chances and becomes irrelevant if Singkawang falls and as Djambi's airfield maxes out (currently at level four, but on the way to level eight).

Singkawang: Reinforcements continue to come ashore at Pontianak, with one more critical night of unloading remaining. The Singkawang force at Pontianak now totals 505 AV. By tomorrow, that should be more like 700. Orders will be issued tomorrow to commence the advance. Billiton Island airfield went to level six (on the way to eight), which helps with security in the western Java Sea. Tomorrow, the Allies will buy the Indian division at Cochin (1360 political points). This unit is fully prepped for Singkawang, but I'm thinking she won't make it in time to particpate in that operation. If not, I'll weigh several operations - reinforcing Sumatra while prepping for some distant base, or going to Port Blair and beginning prep for a Malay Peninsula base.

NoPac: Things looking good in the Kuriles. A bunch of Canadian battalions and brigades in Canada begin prepping for Onne and Para. This becomes first priority once that Indian div. is paid for tomorrow.

Subs and APDs: The Java and South China Seas have been flooded with subs of late. The Allies take occasional damage - an APD today - and get in there own lick once in awhile - today DD Suriyame. I've lost two APD now, but these vessels have performed critical missions to the islands around Sumatra for the past several months. Right now, two other APDs are committed to carrying a British infantry unit from Cochin to Sinabang, the western-most of the islands south of Sumatra. Steve's caught wind of this, which is what I really wanted, though it would be nice to get an airfield up and running here as that would permit Hurricane fighters to transit from Port Blair to eastern Sumatra.

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/2/2012 3:41:27 PM

Historiker

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Now the title of the thread is correct - if it was ment to mean "that can't be true" in German.

I see that for weeks now...

Not really the time to read 90 pages, but have the Allies already conquered half of DEI or was it never lost?

< Message edited by Historiker -- 3/2/2012 3:51:52 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/2/2012 3:55:23 PM

Canoerebel

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It was never lost. Fortress Palembang worked beyond my wildest dreams as my opponent froze and didn't even try to deal with the situation. Then, since late summer, the Allies have advanced north into the Java Sea and southern Borneo. Crazy game. I've predicted for a long time that it should be over by the end of 1942. Steve might soldier on for two more years, but it won't mean anything.

"Das darf nicht var sein" has been used to reflect the crazy nature of the game. I only know a tiny bit of German, but I picked up this phrase while reading Jan Curran's An Appalachian Trail Journey. Curran was a US Army colonel station in Germany for many years. When he retired, he began a through hike on the AT - 2,150 miles. Somewhere in the mountains of North Carolina, he encountered some German tourists. When he started speaking to them in their native tongue, one of them exclaimed, "Das darf nicht var sein!"

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/2/2012 4:26:47 PM

Historiker

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I see :)

How much reinforcements were sent to Palembang? When did he try to take it?

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/2/2012 4:34:56 PM

Canoerebel

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Way back around December 10, I made a comment that I was going to concentrate at Batavia and Oosthaven. Nemo suggested that I consider Palembang instead. I did so and began airlifting local troops into the base, but this was mainly small stuff designed to create a road block.

By mid January it seemed apparent that Steve was focused elsewhere, so I "went all in." I began trransfering major Indian and British units into Palembang and then to supporting bases like Oosthaven and Benkolen.

Steve seemed to freeze, so that the reinforcement operations were never threatened. He never attacked Palembang (or Oosthaven, which would have beent he way to come IMO). He did try a few things with his ships - some stiff battles were fought around Oosthaven, Java and Cocos Island. But he came out on the short end - losing a bunch of cruisers, battleships, two carriers and three CVLs. These kind of setbacks just seemed to make him freeze all the more.

By late summer, the garrisons were full strenght and forts were maxed out, so the Allies finally transitioned over to the offensive, taking islands north of Oosthaven and Palembang. By autumn they moved on to southern Borneo, where there were several bases that Japan hadn't taken.

So, as we near the end of 1942, the Allies have a massive force in the DEI, have seriously attrited Japan's capital ships, and are preparing to go on the serious offensive - Singkawang should fall before Christmas. That's the key base that should set things up for 1943. Once Signkawang falls, Singapore, western Sumatra and Burma become untenable for Japan. They will whither of the vine. The Allies will probably move on Malaya in early '43. Borneo will also be targeted. And the Allied transports carrying the first troops into the eastern DEI from Oz are enroute.

Really, things are just awful for Japan.

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/2/2012 4:38:20 PM

Historiker

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quote:

Really, things are just awful for Japan.

Impressive! But the best part is, that your opponent didn't quit - which would be quite understandable, considering that he must be out of oil by now...

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/2/2012 4:44:21 PM

Canoerebel

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Well, this is Scenario Two, so he should be okay on oil for awhile yet. This was recently discussed in the thread by Alfred and others - not in depth - but it has been discussed in depth previously here and in Nemo's AAR vs. One-Eyed-Jacks. The wisdom seems to be that in Scenario Two Japan might be able to go without Palembang deep into '43 if it is careful. This creates the possibilty of Japan turning the tables on the Allies if a Fortress Palembang is tried. Japan could react by ignoring (or isolating) the Fortress while moving in strength on rear areas rendered vulnerable by lack of troops that were sent to Palembang.

As for my opponent, he's as faithful as can be. He's game, though he's in a very tight spot. It seems that he is by nature a "historical reality" player, while I am more of a "gamer." With two different personaltiies involved, the game veered into the weird and surreal. He's probably not enjoying that aspect at all, but he hasn't complained and he's faithful in sending turns. Good guy. Weird game.

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/2/2012 11:50:31 PM

pws1225

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Yep, you gotta respect Chez for being game!

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/5/2012 4:09:38 PM

Canoerebel

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11/22/42

You Can Say That Again: We played the November 21 turn twice. I'm not sure how I did it, but I accidentally sent Steve the same turn back-to-back. My bad. Funny thing was, he played both turns and didn't notice until I caught it and pointed it out ("Hey, Steve, you sent the the Nov. 21 combat report again...what they hey, it's my fault!"). I think this is a telling indicator of just how busy Steve is at work (I won't go into detail again, but his job has placed incredible demands on him since last summer).

Borneo: Almost all troops are ashore at Pontianak now. 805 AV begin the march to Singkawang tonight. Roughly 230 AV will remain at Pontiak to guard against an enemy attack. Japanese strike aircraft sortied in fairly large numbers from Singapore. They finally wore out the CAP and sank three xAK and damaged xAP Indora. The Pensacola TF has reached Oosthaven and will report to Billiton Island, where it will help patrol these waters - I want to make sure nothing comes into Singkawang uncontested.

Singkep: The Allies get revenge for the ships lost at Pontianak by damaging or sinking six xAK here. 4EB are hitting the Japanese. I am hoping that I can hold Singkep, but it won't be easy. But I do like having Steve focused here while the real show at Singkawang.

Sumatra: The isolated Japanese army at Padang didn't show any erosion in AV until about two weeks ago. I've been watching one division in particular. It's AV has declined from 425 to about 405. I think Japan's army is out of supply. The Allied army is outnumbered here and the terrain is jungle, so I won't try an attack until the AV drops to much lower numbers. But this is a good sign.

Sinabang: The Allies lost a misbehaving APD to Nells out of Sabang. The APD arrived at daylight and hung around the entire day, which kind of negates the idea of fast transport. Nevertheless, Steve is paying attention way out here, so that's good too.

Burma: The Happy Stalemate at Magwe continues. Within two days the Allies will have a 250-AV army at Pegu. Japan has five units there - believed to be weak, so I want to see if there's an opportunity here.

NoPac: All quiet at Para and Onne.

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/6/2012 4:17:31 PM

Canoerebel

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11/23/42

Borneo: The Singkawang-bound army of 805 AV made 13 miles today, so the two-hex march should take eight days. The Japanese have 7k defenders, so the base will fall unless Steve brings in reinforcements. Allied combat TFs will visit the hex every night to stop any such effort. Japanese strike aircraft escorted by fighters again visited Pontianak in large numbers, sinking a KV and an xAKL, finishing off damaged xAP Indora, and damaging a few more ships. The Allied CAP performed ably, however, so that on the day Japan lost 75 aircraft in a-2-a while the Allies lost just 12 (these totals include action up at Onnekotan Jima, too). Ketpang airfield goes to level three. Pontianak should do so in about three days, which will seriously help with local CAP.

Singkep: Steve continues to reinforce and he targeted scores of Sallys against this base. The Allies returned the favor by committing 4EB and some 2EB. The Allied force here is weak - just 55 AV at the moment - while the Japanese force is growing, but very disrupted by landing without prep.

Malaya: Yesterday, the Allies bought 26th Indian Div. at Cochin. She boarded transports and is enroute, though I'm hoping we won't need the unit at Singkawang. If not, there are some likely targets in Malaya - inlcuding Phuket, which is still controlled by the Allies (but doesn't need a big unit) and Victoria Point, which unbelievably appears vacant. If 26th Div. isn't needed at Singakwang, I think the Allies will land at Victoria, using the carriers (which are six days from being ready at Colombo) to provide CAP.

Burma: The Allies will bombard at Prome tonight to gauge the strength of enemy opposition. Up near Toungoo, the Allies will attack what I think is a weak and depleted 2nd Raiding Regiment in the jungle. If the latter attack succeeds, the Allies will be able to move on Prome, which I think is lightly defended. The Japanese position in Burma is weak primarily because Steve recognizes that Burma could be cut off by an Allied move on or near Singapore (IMO). I think his actions in Burma are therefore appropriate, but I hope to take advantage of the situation.

NoPac: Two Allied xAK sunk at Onne before the LRCAP from Para could reach the base; once the American fighters did, though, they performed well.

CenPac: Japanese landings at vacant Vanoruko (a few hexes south of Ndeni) underway.

Oz: Aussie troops departed Townsville to occupy Taberfane and Saumlaki - both TFs are nearing Horn Island without detection.

Political Points: After buying 26th Div. yesterday, the Allies were down to six. The next target is a variety of Canadian brigades and battalions at Victoria and Prince Rupert. These units are bound for Onne and Para.

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/6/2012 7:14:25 PM

BBfanboy

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Landings at Vanoruko?? What the heck for! I thought he was pulling back from SOPAC because you were threatening a "Bobbitt attack" there.

Does that island help form a defence line or something?
Either way, commitment of forces out there helps you in DEI.

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/6/2012 7:28:28 PM

Canoerebel

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Vonoruko is vacant, so he can land three shepherd boys and a goat and take the place.

But your larger point is well taken. Why fight way out here when the enemy is already embedded in your vitals?

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/6/2012 8:37:24 PM

paullus99

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Maybe a vain attempt to get you to look in another direction, now that he's starting his operations again in the DEI. Unfortunately, he doesn't have the available combat power to mount a credible threat in multiple locations anymore (since you are ignoring the Pacific anyway - it is also a moot point).

If he does, in fact, commit to a Sumatran campaign, it is going to be very bloody. Much bloodier, in fact, than what happened in the Solomons due to the overlapping series of large airbases available on both sides - but, in this case, his biggest airbase - Singapore, isn't in any way secure & can in fact prove to be a liability based on your position.

It will be a good fight, not a fair fight, since you are well-positioned, but it will be fun to watch nevertheless.

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/6/2012 8:38:04 PM

Capt. Harlock

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quote:

But your larger point is well taken. Why fight way out here when the enemy is already embedded in your vitals?

Just possibly Chez may be hoping to provoke a commitment to the area. (It generally takes considerably more troops to throw the IJA off an island than the Japanese have to expend taking the island.) Is there any sign of Japanese airbases being built to interfere with the supply routes to Australia?

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/6/2012 8:46:32 PM

Canoerebel

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Any attempt to land in eastern Sumatra would be a "banzai charge" at this point. That would be in keeping with Japanese philosophy, but it would be hopeless.

A major land campaign marching from western Sumatra to the eastern end would be safer, take much longer, and be just as futile.

IE, Sumatra is no longer a viable option for Japan.

At this point he should be preparing his MLR - including Singkwang and the bases on the Malay peninsula, but I think he's doing three things: (a) feeding a meeting engagement at Singkep and Muntok, (b) stockpiling troops at Cam Ranh Bay to possibly invade Sumatra, and (c) beginning to strongly garrison Miri and Brunei. Only the third activity is beneficial to him, IMO.

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/6/2012 10:00:29 PM

BBfanboy

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Garrisoning Brunei and Miri is only marginally beneficial - they are quite isolated and once you have bombers at Sinkawang they can be bombed to uselessness. The only thing a garrison does is deny them to you, but you don't need them because you have Palembang's huge oil/fuel output. Sending more troops to be isolated at those two places just benefits you.
If he doesn't move agressively to kick you out of Borneo completely his next line of defence will be between Borneo and Mindanao, and from northern Malaya to Rangoon. He needs to keep Bangkok for its rail junctions to hold Indochina. Even defending that shortened perimeter will become difficult within six months, and North Pacific is another vulnerable spot. He has more leaks in the dike than he has fingers and toes!

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/7/2012 1:50:14 AM

Canoerebel

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BB, under ordinary circumstances you might be right in your assessment, but not under the particular circumstances of this game.

First, the Allies cannot strategic bomb in the DEI until 1944 per house rule.

Second, I don't need the oil, but Japan certainly does.

Third, Steve has to establish an MLR somewhere. He should be doing so at Singkawang, but failing to do that, Miri and Brunei are very important choices. An Allied move up the Borneo coast will be out of range of LRCAP, meaning the Allies would have to commit their carriers. That's exactly what Steve needs and wants...and what I won't give (and don't need to, since I'm so vastly far ahead of schedule).

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/7/2012 2:26:07 AM

JeffroK

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A major advantage of Chex digging in at Miri & Brunei is that it makes it a major effort for CR to base from them.

They would otherwise be an easy stepping stone to control Northern Borneo and be able to project further into the Sth China Sea.

A move denying you a position is just as valuable as an operation capturing a base.

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/7/2012 3:07:22 AM

BBfanboy

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Just had another look at the map and I see what you mean about going east of Singkawang if you still are not sure you can take on KB.
However, once you tidy up that little mess around Muntok and Singkep and suppress or take Singers, I like the idea of taking Goot Natoena, the island 5 hexes NNE of Singkawang. Good way to extend into the sea without leaving your own cover. The island is AF 0(5) but unfortunately Port0(0).

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/7/2012 3:38:08 AM

princep01

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CR, I hope you will at least examine the possibility of a Spring invasion of Shanklin Is or other objectives in the far north. If Chez really does engage in the DEI and it is still raging when winter draws to a close, that would be a great way to jerk his chain and perhaps get you some bases close enough to Japan to start strat bombing with B-24s and B-17s by May 1943. I'd say that a Greyjoy stroke might be a bit ambitious that early, but laying the groundwork for the arrival of the B-24Js and B-17F/Gs might pay dividends. During the winter, grabbing other bases in the eastern Pacific might be a good way to build experience, harvest some points and further weaken the IJN.

Anyway, keep up the good work in the DEI.

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/7/2012 4:08:46 AM

Canoerebel

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BB, yup. As soon as I take Singkawang, I plan to airlift some base force personnel to the chain of islands stretching to the west (true). PBYs based there will provide good info and "yank Steve's chain."

Princep, of course that seems like the logical course of action. But in weighing the benefits and detriments, I'm inclined not to plan for an invasion of Sikhalin Island. Here's the complex reasoning, which is just another good illustration of the tremendous complexity of AE:

1. Right now, Shikuka is wide open. Steve may be negligent and leave it open, or he may be using it as bait. I rate the odds of him failing to protect Shikuka as low but possible.

2. I don't have any units and only a few ships that I can commit to NoPac by spring (everything is in the DEI and the southern Pacific). I will receive some reinforcements between now and then. Should I hold them in place for possible use in NoPac on the chance that Steve is negligent, or send them right to the DEI where I know they will be of use? I'm going with the latter.

3. The Allies will be committing additional troops to strengthen Onne and Paramushiro as I continue to build those airfields. By spring, I want to be able to hit Toyohara's (or is it Shikuka's?) oil.

4. There is a chance the Allies could move into NoPac in a big way in late '43 or '44 if things went awry in the DEI or if I need a "second front."

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/7/2012 4:38:46 AM

Schlemiel

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There's oil in both Toyohara and Shikuka I believe.

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/7/2012 6:19:47 AM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Schlemiel

There's oil in both Toyohara and Shikuka I believe.

Shikuka has 30 Oil. There is none at Toyohara but it has a huge resource output.
On Hokkaido, three bases have 5 Oil each: Ashikawa, Sapporo and Muroran.
On Honshu, the closest oil is at Akita which has 32 Oil.

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/7/2012 2:05:42 PM

princep01

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CR, I guess I stressed the Kurile approach too much in my last post, but the point I was really trying to make is just don't succumb to tunnel vision in the DEI. It is easy to do over such valuable real estate. Leave options open by starting some units in the planning/prep process for other areas now. The DEI is well defended and you currently have significant offensive punch there. I understand your reasoning for keeping it the primary area of offensive ops, but one can create valuable opportunities and, perhaps decisive ones, elsewhere.

Fun and informative AAR. Thanks for taking the time to write it. I have learned a great deal from you and others by reading it.

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/7/2012 2:09:48 PM

Historiker

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quote:

1.� Right now, Shikuka is wide open.� Steve may be negligent and leave it open, or he may be using it as bait.� I rate the odds of him failing to protect Shikuka as low but possible.

I had a game where I invaded Hokkaido. If you can muster 4 divisions, you have a warwinner.
Take enough Baseforces and planes with you, because before he can react, you'll already have CAP over your own bases. If you manage to hold out, all of Japan is in range of your 4e bombers stationed there.

Thanks to that experience, I often agreed to exclude that option in the HRs.

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/7/2012 2:13:30 PM

princep01

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Oh, I forgot....I wouldn't fret knocking out the small amount of oil in northern Japan. That is a miscule consideration. The real value of securing a position there is possessing bases for strategic bombing of everything...EVERYTHING...in that part of the Empire. As you have seen in Greyjoy's fascinating AAR, the abilty of Japan to produce large (impossibily large) numbers of airframes in Scenario2, with PDU on, is real. The sooner the Allied bombers can start destroying air factories and research, the better. From what I have gleened from the AARs, city fire bombing is the way to go as it actually destroys the factories for good (they otherwise can repair). If I were going the northern route, that would be the goal.....not the destruction of a small cache of oil.

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/7/2012 2:19:25 PM

princep01

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Historiker, or is it Strangelove, you and I think the sameway there. The Japanese player that ignores the north is making himself a sitting duck. I think our man Chez is doing exactly that. The only reason he has anything up there is that the Allies already have two islands there.

But, as a note of caution, winter is not a good time to actually invade anything in the north (the Winter Zone, at least). I think CR is correct to concentrate on the DEI for now. Next spring....well, I'd sure be ready to do something very tragic to the Empire there if the opportunity was there.

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/7/2012 2:25:12 PM

Canoerebel

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The Allies have placed a high priority on securing Onne and Para this winter for those reasons: It gives Allied 4EB a position from which to hit Hokkaido and Sikhalian Island and a vector for bigger things later should there be opportunities or needs.

The Allies won't have a single narrow focus in the DEI. The campaign in that region, which will rage in 1943, will include the DEI, Southeast Asia and China. That's a huge front.

In the DEI, the Allied moves will not only include the current path north from Sumatra, but also the eastern DEI. Already (as regular readers know), the Allies have occupied Merauke and have TFs enroute to Saumlaki and Taberfane.

The Allies also have good positions in the Pacific to whittle away at Japan a bit - from Milne Bay looking north and west, from Ndeni looking south and west, and from Tarawa to the west.

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/7/2012 2:25:46 PM

Historiker

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quote:

ORIGINAL: princep01

Historiker, or is it Strangelove, you and I think the sameway there. The Japanese player that ignores the north is making himself a sitting duck. I think our man Chez is doing exactly that. The only reason he has anything up there is that the Allies already have two islands there.

But, as a note of caution, winter is not a good time to actually invade anything in the north (the Winter Zone, at least). I think CR is correct to concentrate on the DEI for now. Next spring....well, I'd sure be ready to do something very tragic to the Empire there if the opportunity was there.

I haven't followed the AAR for long enough.
Which bases are already in the hands of the evil dogfaced imperialists?

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RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! - 3/7/2012 5:22:36 PM

Canoerebel

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Status: offline

11/24/42

Borneo: The stakes are rising in the campaign for the critical base of Singkawang. Steve sent in a big fast transport TF (one CL and 24 DD), which tangled with an Allied TF led by CA Devonshire. Five IJN DDs and the CL were set afire, while none of the Allied vessel suffered any damage. The Japanese did land roughly 1,000 reinforcements, which is something I'll have to work hard to stop. The Allied army marching for Sing only made five miles today (ack!) - a total of 18 in two days. If they continue at a pace of five/day, it will take another 14 days or so to make the journey. Steve can bring in alot of reinforcements over in that period. The Allies will post LRCAP over the base and continue sending in nightly combat TFs (while Devonshire TF replenishes, the CA Pensacola TF will step in).

Singkep: Steve is working this base hard, trying to get reinforcements in. CA Chikuma took two 1,000 pounders from SBDs, so she may be out of action for a few weeks. This is important, because he's running short of capital ships available to contest Singkawang, should he choose to do so. I think the Allies will lose Singkep, but I'm going to airlift in some units today in hopes that it will worry him and rattle him as he tries to prioritize between Singkep and Singkawang.

Burma: The Allied attack in the jungle south of Toungoo failed. We'll try again tomorrow, hoping another nudge following some bombing attacks will work.

NoPac: Quiet.

(in reply to Historiker)

Post #: 2700