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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A)

 
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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/18/2012 3:53:02 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I can identify alot of support units (engineers, HQ, AA) and small infantry units committed in NoPac.  No major ground units (except Guards Brigade) have been committed up here yet.  It's clear Steve intends to hold and build the bases he's taken (lots of victory points to be gained by holding bases like Anchorage). 

I'm still guessing that he plans a strategic bombing campaign vs. American industrial targets.  I do not think he's going to invade ConUS.

I think there's a fair chance he will invade Hawaii.  That would be synergistic with his current deployment.  IE, it's easy to switch KB from NoPac to CenPac to handle such an operation.

I think there's also a decent chance Steve will invade Oz, probably in order to engage in a strat bombing campaign there.  He can handle that invasion mainly through LBA if he proceeds methodically.

Right now, Steve has two divisions at Clark Field.  A third was roughed up and withdraw.  A fourth (Imperial Guards) was in Malaya, but recent SigInt reports it aboard transports bound for Lingayen.  I'm waiting to see if it shows up.  The SigInt could be disinformation.

This represents my current evaluation of what's going on, though by no means am I convinced this is what's happening.  But if Steve does commit to NoPac plus Hawaii and/or Oz long-term, the Allies will definately focus on the Bay of Bengal region.

Japan can go wherever it wants - but not everywhere it wants - through late summer or early autumn of 1942.  After that, the Allies are strong enough to begin to contest or go on the offensive, within reason.  So, right now, I'm looking at perhaps an eight month window of Japanese aggression.  While it's only January 18, 1942, that's late enough that Steve needs to be making some major progress soon.  That means the situation should come into better focus in coming weeks.

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 451
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/18/2012 4:59:47 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1/19/42
 
NoPac:  No sign of KB.  No major developments.

CenPac:  Detroit TF found Mini KB just south of Iwo Jima.  Mini KB launches dozens of Kates and Vals, which sink Detroit and two DDs, damaging a third DD.  The three remaining DDs will disperse.  Is it worth it?  Mini KB was recalled from the Timor region for an unknown period to handle this situation.  She would have helped Steve expand in the timor region.  So I think this was a net gain for the Allies, but that's an evaluation run through an active PR department.

Oz:  Big Betty raid on Darwin damages several ships including AS Platypus.

DEI:  Allied ships and plans still in motion.  An IJN sub patroling the Nicobars damages an xAP toting part of the Indian CD unit to Port Blair.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 452
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/18/2012 5:50:53 PM   
jeffk3510


Posts: 4132
Joined: 12/3/2007
From: Kansas
Status: offline 		Those Omaha class CLs with a good mix of DDs are excellent raiding TFs ( as you're well aware)... and they're fast enough to evade a lot of sky dropped material..

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Currently chasing three kids around the Midwest.

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 453
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/18/2012 8:18:30 PM   
Capt. Harlock


Posts: 5358
Joined: 9/15/2001
From: Los Angeles
Status: offline
quote:

Those Omaha class CLs with a good mix of DDs are excellent raiding TFs ( as you're well aware)... and they're fast enough to evade a lot of sky dropped material..


But when it comes to on-board AAA -- they stink.

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(in reply to jeffk3510)
Post #: 454
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/18/2012 10:16:12 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I haven't decided to do it yet, but if I did the Allies would have Port Blair, Cocos, some of the small islands around Sabang, and then on western Sumatra I'd build up Sabang and at least one port to the east along the north coast.

If Steve's airforce is truly committed to the West Coast USA in a long, major operation, he's going to have holes in other regions.  I've got to find and exploit those.  Sabang is one possibility.



Siboret island is a great grab. Level 9 airfield in range of all sorts of oil. However, you really got to have LSTs to support it so I would not do it before 1943. Quite frankly, if KB is operating elsewhere, I would just raid with my carriers. I doubt he is very strong at the DEI and the Allied carriers can suppress any opposition and take out some serious oil. You got to take some other points as well. Sabang is important because it has a port but every thing else along the West Coast of Sumatra has very little to offer in the way of ports. Quite frankly you had better move a lot of LSTs and AKs to India if you plan on seizing and using these bases. I found out the hard way. You will need at least 30-40 LSTs to resupply the small port bases in a major offensive action.

Actually, I found that LSTs in India are a must regardless of your plans.

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 455
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/19/2012 3:14:22 AM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 7336
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

CenPac:  Detroit TF found Mini KB just south of Iwo Jima.  Mini KB launches dozens of Kates and Vals, which sink Detroit and two DDs, damaging a third DD.  The three remaining DDs will disperse.  Is it worth it?  Mini KB was recalled from the Timor region for an unknown period to handle this situation.  She would have helped Steve expand in the timor region.  So I think this was a net gain for the Allies, but that's an evaluation run through an active PR department.


Maybe.....but lots of raiding by the Allies can have questionable results early. Case in Point: My game vs. your opponent, PanzerJaeger Hortlund.

He's been a bit more aggressive, but he's lost ENTERPRISE and LEXINGTON to raiding, for no CVs sunk in return. A counter to raiders is Divebombers; they will take out any DD pretty quickly. He has sunk a pile of transports, but in Scen 2 or other enhanced, it doesn't matter. Unless you kill an entire ground unit, the transports aren't worth much, and the ground unit can be rebuilt from fragment.

He has given me fits at times, no question...and I've had to divert some convoys for a couple days, but I haven't diverted warships, they participate if they happen to be there...which is maybe what happened here. There is no way Mini-KB could have really reacted that fast, he probably had it in Japan for whatever reason, and your bad luck that it was there and could deal with your TF easily.

I haven't counted, PzjH has slaughtered LOTS of my transports and escorts, but I don't care ultimately. It's all about big ships, and keeping up the timetable. Speed is of the essence for the IJN, transports be damned. I would trade 100 AKs to get Singapore 30 days earlier, that's how important speed is IMO.

You're effectively holding him up for reasons other than raiders; Japanese should have Palembang and Ambon cleared in December, and Koepang/Balikpapan/Kalidjat in early January. The DEI air/sea campaign should be over by Jan 15th at the latest, with just mop-up after that.

That's my 2 yen anyway.......

< Message edited by Q-Ball -- 6/19/2012 3:17:15 AM >

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/19/2012 5:21:02 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I think my raiding did prompt Steve to send the Mini KB from the Ceram Sea up to Iwo Jima.  I think it's been absent from the DEI at least a week, maybe two.  If I'm right, that's probably stopped him from probing deeper to eliminate the little Allied stronghold at Koepang.  Again, if I'm right, the loss of Detroit and three or four or five DDs was well worth it.  As you say, Q-Ball, speed is everything - at least in 1942.

(in reply to Q-Ball)
Post #: 457
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/19/2012 5:27:08 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think my raiding did prompt Steve to send the Mini KB from the Ceram Sea up to Iwo Jima.  I think it's been absent from the DEI at least a week, maybe two.  If I'm right, that's probably stopped him from probing deeper to eliminate the little Allied stronghold at Koepang.  Again, if I'm right, the loss of Detroit and three or four or five DDs was well worth it.  As you say, Q-Ball, speed is everything - at least in 1942.


To borrow a pic posted on Cap Mandrake's AAR:





Attachment (1)

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 458
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/19/2012 2:46:35 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1/20/42
 
Luzon:  Eight Japanese divisions are at Clark Field and shock attack, getting a 1:1 and dropping forts to zero.  I'm going to bring forward 200 AV from Bataan and hope Japan has to hold off for three or four days before attacking again.  With basically the entire Japanese army committed here, every day the Allies can hold buys respite for Singers, Oz, Hawaii, and West Coast.  It's huge knowing where so much of the Japanese army is and I'm surprised Steve would take the chance of getting tied down here.  In fact, I'm nearly sure now that India isn't threatened (it'll take Steve a long time to deal with Singers even after Luzon falls) nor is West Coast.  That leaves, in my opinion, Hawaii, Oz and China as secondary targets after Luzon.

NoPac:  No sign of KB and otherwise quiet in this region.  I'm worried about the possibility of a KB sea lane raid between West Coast and Hawaii.  The transport TF carrying five fighter squadrons that departed Pearl a few days ago will move south between San Diego and Christmas Island.  I may leave here there awhile until the threat potential between West Coast and Oz clarifies a bit.

CenPac:  The scattered DDs of the Detroit TF report the Mini KB well to the north of Iwo Jima.  One DD takes moderate damage.  I'll end up losing all of the DDs eventually, but Mini KB is really on a wild goose chase.

Cocos:  Indian CD unit landing here now.

Port Blair:  Of the three transports carrying an Indian CD unit to this base, two are sunk by a sub.  Remnants of the unit are coming ashore now. 

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 459
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/19/2012 3:05:47 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6750
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline 		Don't know Dan... After the fall of Clark, Steve could easily leave a reinforced division to siege Manila (or Bataan) and move the rest of his Army everywhere he wants...
My experience is limited, mind you, but Rader against me used 4 divisions from Luzon to make a surprise attack in China, flanking my front at Nanning and blowing up all my chinese front finally... If my memory serves well, Rader invaded India in Feb 42... Japan can easily bypass the whole Burma if it has the KB in support...
Which are your time-scheldues for the possible operation "FORTRESS SEBANG"? When do you plan to start reinforcing it?


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 460
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/19/2012 3:28:47 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		As Q-Ball said yesterday, time is everything for Japan.  Steve is toying with time in a way that might proove exceedingly detrimental to his cause.  Once he liquidates Clark Field - which might happen within a week - he still has to extract his army and move on to the next objective.  India is pretty much out of the equation since Singers is going to hold for a long time yet.  West Coast is out because you don't wait until spring to invade the USA, by which time the defenses have been configured.  So that really leaves Steve with just the three major targets - China (nothing I can do about that), Oz (I'm working on that), and Hawaii (in my opinion largely irrelevant, so I won't do anything there).

Japan needs to make hay while the sun shines, and getting eight divisions tied up at Clark Field in late January is, IMO, frittering away some key sunny days.

As for Fortress Sabang, the Oz division that might go there is currently on transports about at Cochin, India.  So I have about another week to decide whether to commit them to Sumatra or elsewhere.  If I do commit them, I'll likely also buy part of an newly-arrived Indian division, divide it, and allocate it between Port Blair, Diego Garcia, and possibly some of the small island bases in the Nicobars and near Sumatra.  USA troops including engineers and CD are enroute to Capetown and will be likewise deployed.  With India almost certainly out of danger given the situation at Singers and Clark Field, the Allies have the luxury - or the necessity - of playing a more forward and active defense in the Bay of Bengal region.  After all, it will take weeks for Steve to move his assets there even if he decided to do so.

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 461
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/19/2012 4:20:04 PM   
adsoul64


Posts: 277
Joined: 1/23/2012
From: Milan Italy
Status: offline 		Mhh, the number of your post is growing up every day, every post shows more commitment... the old passion is back! My bet: in a couple of weeks you'll be looking for a PBEM opponent

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Post #: 462
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/19/2012 4:32:21 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The post count is up because Steve is flipping turns again, after weeks of very desultory activity on his part, not because my interest in the game has changed.  It's always been where it's at - high.  :)

But when an opponent suddenly starts flipping turns, you'd better take notice.  You can bet he's up to something big.  :)

(in reply to adsoul64)
Post #: 463
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/19/2012 4:35:52 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The post count is up because Steve is flipping turns again, after weeks of very desultory activity on his part, not because my interest in the game has changed.  It's always been where it's at - high.  :)

But when an opponent suddenly starts flipping turns, you'd better take notice.  You can bet he's up to something big.  :)



That is a truism.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 464
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/19/2012 4:42:19 PM   
adsoul64


Posts: 277
Joined: 1/23/2012
From: Milan Italy
Status: offline 		Sorry I meant post count of GreyJoy I think he's back for good

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Post #: 465
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/19/2012 4:50:23 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Now there's an idea!  I second the motion! 

The Return of GreyJoy.  I'd love to see him take on Q-Ball.  :)

(in reply to adsoul64)
Post #: 466
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/19/2012 4:52:24 PM   
adsoul64


Posts: 277
Joined: 1/23/2012
From: Milan Italy
Status: offline 		AAR title: Greyjoy is back, but this time is mad.
Subtitle "Straight to Tokyo"

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Post #: 467
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/19/2012 4:55:00 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6750
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline 		...No guys, these weeks are a bit lighter than usual and i'm managing to breathe a little bit again but i really don't have time for a game...and, sincerly, the fuel-tank of my will to play is still dry...will need more months to recover!

But, in the meanwhile, i'll try to visit more often the Forum

(in reply to adsoul64)
Post #: 468
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/19/2012 4:56:43 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline


GreyJoy is Back and this Time He's Mad


Mo' Power Loose in the Pacific


< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/19/2012 4:59:04 PM >

(in reply to adsoul64)
Post #: 469
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/19/2012 4:59:33 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6750
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline 		...Ok guys...you pulled the rope way too much...

That's what you deserve




Attachment (1)

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Post #: 470
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/19/2012 5:03:08 PM   
adsoul64


Posts: 277
Joined: 1/23/2012
From: Milan Italy
Status: offline 		I see why you don't have time for the game

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Post #: 471
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/19/2012 5:49:21 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1/21/42 and 1/22/42
 
Steve is flipping turns almost instantaneously.  He's got something he wants to see through ASAP.

NoPac:  KB back in sight near Anchorage, where her strike aircraft fly another mission against Anchorage (what the heck?) and sink a couple of transports that were fleeing from that port.  The Japanese finally take Annette Island, with a bunch of engineers included.  Think Steve wants to build this airfield FAST.  So strategic bombing of ConUS is in the works.

CenPac:  Four of the five Detroit TF DDs have gone under now, with one more trying to make it to safety.  The other CL TF (the one that hugged New Guinea's coastline) is east of Rabaul now and probably out of danger.  The Japanese take Tabituea.

Luzon:  Steve's army at Clark try back to back shock attacks using a single paratroop unit to half the odds. Both attacks get 1:1 and drop the forts, but fail to take the hex.  Steve's units are probably roughed up and will need a few days to recover.  I hope the extra 200 AV on the way from Bataan will help the Allies hold this base.  I've told Steve I'm not 100% happy with the use of a small paratroop unit to try to unhinge what should be a major bastion.  I traditionally don't use my para units that way, but all bets are off in this game.  (Usually, I only use para units to seize vacant or lightly held bases in a lightning war campaign, not using them to neuter a place like Singapore or Clark Field/Bataan or other fortresses that should be tough nuts to crack.)

What this Means:  Usually, Axis players take their time at Clark Field, bombing for months until the garrison is easy pickings.  Why has Steve tried so many shock attacks?  My best guess is that he has other uses in mind for his airforce - probabl ConUS and Oz, though there could be other targets.  He doesn't want a major part of his airforce employed against Luzon targets come February and March.

(in reply to adsoul64)
Post #: 472
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/19/2012 6:03:25 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		Is Clark Field on a sea hex in this mod? I.E. could he bombard with battleships instead of bombing?

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Post #: 473
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/19/2012 6:53:51 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		He is trading blood for time, but in the wrong direction IMHO. Bit of a godsend to you, Dan.

Each game, Dan seems to try on a new personality. This time he's consigning SCTFs to their doom and casually writing off Hawaii. Is this game the advent of Doritos "Crunch all you want, We'll make more" Dan? Time will tell.

Actually, I think the many faces of Dan are a combination of his unique style of playing off his current opponent. He feels his way toward the weak spot of each foe. Cool, really.

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Post #: 474
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/19/2012 7:13:50 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

He is trading blood for time, but in the wrong direction IMHO. Bit of a godsend to you, Dan.

Each game, Dan seems to try on a new personality. This time he's consigning SCTFs to their doom and casually writing off Hawaii. Is this game the advent of Doritos "Crunch all you want, We'll make more" Dan? Time will tell.

Actually, I think the many faces of Dan are a combination of his unique style of playing off his current opponent. He feels his way toward the weak spot of each foe. Cool, really.

"Doritos Dan" does have a certain ring to it, but needs to capture the southern man more fully. Maybe "Dangerous Doritos Dan"? "Diabolical Doritos Dan"?
Can he get product placement endorsements for his AAR from this or will he still have to buy war bonds?

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(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 475
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/19/2012 7:38:29 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		You can call me "Lieutenant Dan" (as my preacher does) or "Dandy Dan" (as my veterinarian and sometimes backpacking companion does) or "Dan the Man" (as my mother does) or "Mr. Peanut" (as my college roommate did) or "Hunka Burnin' Love" (as my college girlfriend's friend did) or "Dan Bland" (as a deputy clerk of court used to) or "Hot Pants Roper" (as a University of Miami baseball fan did many years ago) or "Gonzo" (as a law firm secretary did) or "Mack" (as my college friends did for a time) or "Wow!" as many of my college girlfriends should have....

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 476
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/19/2012 9:11:23 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I think we played four turns today, plus two yesterday, which is more than we usually play in ten days.  The regular flow of turns, plus the lapse of nearly a week, gave me considerably more "feel" for what's going on. 

To summarize:  Yesterday, I wrote that my best guess is that Steve's plan is two-fold:  Develop his NoPac bases to engage in strategic bombing against ConUS industrial targets; this won't require his big ground units, which he'll devote to either Hawaii or Oz (plus China, but that's a given).

The additional turns have only reinforced this evaluation, plus the attractiveness of an active Allied forward defense in the Bay of Bengal region.  My early thoughts about buildnig up defenses of Cocos Island, western Sumatra, Port Blair, Diego Garcia and some of the Sumatra/Nicobar islands is becoming more certain.

The current Allied disposition and use of carriers and raiding combat TFs, plus the build up of Koepang, has slowed down Steve in the eastern DEI.  He can't advance at will due to the perceived presence of two American carriers and two RN carriers.  He's having to move slowly under cover of LBA.

Overall, I am encouraged by what has transpired over the past three weeks or so.  I'm not putting all my "eggs" into this basket of hunches, but I'm certainly actively planning and slowly implementing these plans in accordance with my perception of what's going on.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 477
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/20/2012 12:52:10 AM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		Curious to see what happens when he clears the Philippines. He seems in an awful hurry there. Maybe Singers, maybe DEI but I'm interested to see what those troops are prepping for in a week or 2. They will need some R&R but they have more work to do me thinks.
As for the NoPAc. Does Midway become an annoyance to the Japanese at any point?

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 478
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/20/2012 1:44:38 AM   
Alfred

 

Posts: 6685
Joined: 9/28/2006
Status: offline 		I return and I find two ideas appear to have taken hold; ideas which appear to have been accepted by the group without a strenous analysis.

Idea #1. No invasion of India possible until Singapore has been captured.

With the KB off Alaska/Canada and 8 Japanese divisions currently situated at Clark Field, I would accept that a Japanese move on India is not feasible until these two operations have accomplished their objectives. I do not see how Singapore remaining under Allied control per se prevents a move on India if that is indeed the enemy's second stage objective.

An Allied controlled Singapore only indirectly defends India under these circumstances.

1. The Allies control the air space over Singapore.

This is necessary to ensure that

(a) the airfield remains operational
(b) passage into Singapore port of the Allied resupply convoys to feed the large garrison and large numbers of aircraft engaged on regular sorties remains unimpeded

To achieve this air superiority the Allies cannot rely solely on the initial British/Commonwealth air units stationed there for two main reasons. Firstly the airframe replacement rates are simply too low. Ferrying additional squadrons from India is not a satisfactory answer as the airframe replacement problem is not solved. What would be needed is American squadrons. This takes time and more significantly, American squadrons are currently being redeployed to America, not away from America. Secondly the quality of the aircraft is not that good; Buffaloes by themselves are simply not going to match the Zero.

2. The Japanese plan on a sea invasion of India using the Straits of Malacca.

If indeed the Japanese player is so moribund in their planning that they would only move via this strait then provided those British torpedo bombers remain, a heavy toll could be exacted. But this is not the only course of action open to Japan. With Oosthaven and Merak both under Japanese control, the Sunda Strait is a far better transit point for an India bound invasion fleet for these reasons:

(a) it imposes only a very minor additional travel distance compared to the alternative
(b) once through Sunda, particularly if Christmas and Cocos are Japanese controlled, it sails into open sea away from prying Allied patrol planes
(c) it aims for a killer landing on an Arabian Sea port, perhaps even Karachi itself


Idea #2. Festung Sabang.

I can see why Sabang has some attraction but it is no equivalent of Palembang by a long way for these reasons.

1. Logistics.

In itself Palembang produces a huge amount of supply which can feed a large garrison and significant aintrinsicir and naval operations out of it. Sabang has nil, nada, zilch intrinsic supply generating capacity itself. It therefore will be totally dependent on resupply convoys which can be easily intercepted by Nellies (with fighter escorts) operating out of Malaya/Thailand. If the three Dutch bases Langsa, Medan and Tandjoengbalai remain under Allied control, a useful amount of local supply can be generated. But Medan produces less than 20% of the supply which Palembang can. That imposes a huge restraint on what can be stationed at Sabang at this point in time. It also means that the Allied garrison has to be more greatlyt dispersed than under the Festung Palembang strategy.

2. Terrain Effects.

Palembang is on a swamp. Sabang is on clear terrarder to hold hain. That alone makes it harder to defend Sabang.

There is another factor working against Sabang. Palembang is on a navigable river which therefore prevents bombardment by enemy BBs. Sabang is open to BB bombardment. This greatly complicates the Allied ability to:

(a) maintain an operational airfield
(b) reduce the diminution in supply stocks from supply hits

3. Base Infrastructure.

Compared to Palembang, Sabang starts off with a much smaller airfield and port. Accordingly it takes time just to catch up to Palembang's already developed facilties plus additional time to develop them to the point of representing a major threat.

Alfred

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 479
RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 6/20/2012 2:23:49 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Alfred, good to have you back in the forums.  Your absence was noted and commented on last week.

Idea Number 1:  Under the peculiar circumstances of this game, Singapore is crucial.  With the KB far away and with eight divisions committed in Luzon, there's no way Steve is going to invade India in the short term.  He knows American carriers are or recently were in the Indian Ocean, so he's not going to take long chances on a deep penetration in which he wouldn't be assured of coming close to controlling the sky.  Until Singers falls, he's not going far into the Bay of Bengal (assuming he sticks to the convention that IJ shipping can't pass Singers until taking that base).  I should not that I didn't say that an invasion of India isn't possible.  Rather that it is so unlikely that I can act upon that evaluation.

Idea Number 2: All of those factors have been taken into consideration.  Sabang isn't Palembang, but Sabang in conjunction with other bases in an arc from Cocos to Port Blair, and with a prolonged absence of the KB and many IJ divisions, will create a road block to whatever intentions Japan had in the Bay of Bengal and will pose a threat to Japan's strategic position. If, as expected, Japan is in for a major gambit vs. ConUS plus either Hawaii or Oz, this is the best area for Allied operations in the near and medium term.

The Allies are looking for opportunities to effectively badger Japan over the next six or eight months, and this presentl looks like a fertile area for consideration.

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 480
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