Canoerebel
Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002 From: Northwestern Georgia, USA Status: offline
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The game is actually at a pretty delicate tipping point. Neither side has lost any assets to speak of to date, so both sides are very potent. Steve has pushed hard in nearly all areas - pushed right up to the where I had drawn my various "lines in the sand." If he stops here he hasn't accomplished anything close to lethal with the possible exception of China. If he is just pausing before the next big push, he could do some pretty devastating things - at least in Australia. (I think India and North America are pretty safe now.) Steve made a huge mistake, IMO, in not taking Coal Harbor (and probably Prince Rupert) in North America. He gobbled up a bunch of freebies and got close enough to cause some problems for me, but the menace would have been compounded 10x had he taken those bases. Overall, Steve has done a good job in NoPac, but didn't push far enough to make it strategically meaningful. In the Pacific, Steve has "laid back" everywhere. IMO, this is sensible, because he can better use the time and assets elsehwere and has done so. Really, who in the world cares about Ndeni, Baker Island, etc? They are only signficant to those who insist on replicating the actual war. In AE, they are of minor value and are actually impediments if you concentrate on them to the detriment of the real theaters of action. In Oz, Steve has taken Darwin to Exmouth. The SW (Perth) and NE (Townsville) sectors are wide open. I'm really hoping he won't act there, because if he established good airbases to engage in strat bombing of my major industrial centers it might prove calamitous from a Victory Point standpoint. In India, Steve did a good job in blitzkrieging the Calcutta area. However, that doesn't really mean much long term. Not only that, the Allies already have a rather massive army in place that will continue to grow in the short and medium terms. I think the Allies can really make headway here if Steve isn't careful. China is the real trouble spot. I think I'm pretty decent in China and I was confident in my ability to manage this campaign even against an experienced and aggressive opponent. I've done pretty well, but two setbacks really hurt - letting Steve get hold of a wooded-rough hex that opened up the Sian plans, and trying my little failed offensive near Changsha that roughed up my army quite badly. My MLR is still intact, but it's shrinking. Right now, I'm concerned about China's long-term prognosis, but there is a chance the Allies will be able to go on the offensive in India to restore communications (and supply) before the Chinese are basically liquidated. Steve might get alot of kudos for pushing so far in the game so far, but I actually don't think he's done very much. The Allies intentionally traded real estate for time, making the Japanese advances look sexier than they probably deserve. At this point the Allies are in excellent shape unless Steve pushes harder and farther. He might, but he's really talking like that's not going to happen.
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