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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A)

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/19/2012 10:30:57 PM

temagic

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Good luck Cribtop. I'm looking forward to seeing how this op will go. It is the biggest gamble you've undertaken (even bigger than Pearl Harbor) and if successfull, you stand to reap a MAJOR victory. However, man oh man, so much could go wrong with this op. I'm not trying to give you nerves here, I hope you've already set your mind on carrying out this op, but, as a cautious fella, I would never have carried out this op myself. Red Dragon was beautiful and was a strategic victory gained from a sound strategic plan. This op though has so many more what-if's that I'm worried your Army Staff hasn't had the time to have them all wargamed. However, with that said, I hope you'll acheieve total surprise and with that, total success. Banzai!

edit: no -i wouldn't, but I'm so glad you are... :)

< Message edited by temagic -- 10/19/2012 10:34:12 PM >

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Post #: 1651

RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/19/2012 10:52:16 PM

temagic

Posts: 169
Joined: 7/26/2006
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Just thought I'd write one more post to thank you Cribtop.

See, I love this game, it's so awesome, but I can't play it. Used to play WitP back in the days, years ago, but I've never played AE, though I own a copy of it and has almost since release. See, I got schizophrenia and alzheimer's/dementia back in 2009 and have been struggling since then. Memory has improved much. Can remember the yesterday and read posts and follow this aar and stuff, which I couldn't possibly do some years ago. Back then I culdn't even remember the names of my family members or the last paragraph I read. Watching TV, I'd forget the previous scene. Today, its much improved thanks to this deceased Canadian doctor and his alternative remedies. But, AE is just too much for me to cope with. So, I'm reading AARs instead and enjoying them. And of all the AARs on this forum, yours the best. (not necessarily writing style, but preferred playstyle) Now that we've reached 1943, I have to say, you've played perfect up 'til this point. I want to thank you for that. Now, Whirlwind, man, ike I said earlier, Cuttlefish is gonna cry from this op. I just hope it'll be cries of desperation and worry, not cries of joy.

Good luck and thank you and do keep posting and keeping us up-to-date on our war.

Banzai!

< Message edited by temagic -- 10/19/2012 11:03:41 PM >

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Post #: 1652

RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/20/2012 12:05:48 AM

Cribtop

Posts: 3890
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From: Lone Star Nation
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Great posts, temagic. Let me respond to a few points.

First, I'm honored and humbled at what you have shared with us about your health. Here's hoping you continue to improve. I'm thrilled to be your surrogate gateway to AE.

Second, there's no doubt this is a gamble. We can't ignore the fact that the Allied juggernaut is gaining steam. This is the point in the game where it is easy for the Japanese player to try to do too much and get clobbered. IRL, Japan did the same. I've tried to anticipate and mitigate the risks. The IJN is still far stronger than the Royal Navy, and, thanks to three fleet carriers sunk, we would overmatch the combined fleets of the RN and USN. Furthermore, we have a decided advantage in LBA in theater. Thus, I strongly believe we will have naval and air superiority. This is the basis of the entire plan. My carriers will certainly stay out of string bag range of the coast to be sure. A big fear is subs, but other than reasonable countermeasures, there is little to be done there except hope for some luck. My biggest concerns are: 1) does CF have a big force of restricted units that can stalemate 17th Army before we can close the door; and 2) will the terrain of Assam allow for us to move quickly enough to complete the encirclement before CF can effectively respond? The Plan B I mention above is basically the bailout in case either of those eventualities comes to pass.

Consider the upside, however. We can be ashore in about four days, three if we're lucky. After that, if there is no massive Indian Army lurking to stop us, we could cut off and perhaps destroy irreplaceable assets. The pools for the UK and, to a lesser extent, Australian forces are too small to sustain the destruction of the enemy's Burma invasion force, and the Indian Army would be crippled. This would foreclose another attack on Burma until '44, and, if we succeed in the "wildest dreams" sense, leave India itself vulnerable.

Third, I can't say I've played perfectly, but I would say that the results after all was said and done are about perfect as we begin 1943. Some of that was luck, some of it IMHO is attributed to conservative play by my opponent, but in the end I have what I wanted when the war began. I am aggressive, no doubt, but honestly if I had it to play again I might be even more aggressive. Still, I try very hard not to be rash, to account for contingencies, and to have a way out. We shall see where we go from here, but in the end I read the Burma invasion as an "all in" move by CF. For once he might be exposed to an unexpected counterattack, and my feel is that a sudden reversal of the initiative could throw him off his game.

Fourth, Alfred was supportive of this Op, and I've learned to listen to his advice.

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 10/20/2012 6:15:27 AM >

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/20/2012 1:40:55 AM

Grfin Zeppelin

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Hmmm first time in 43 you say..... It is all about George. Uh hows yer research/arrival date ? To tell the truth, I am so found of this plane that I hope I never meet an attractive man with that name...ok just kidding but get dat plane. Zero was last year, this year its all about the George. Produce it in numbers and replace all land based Zeros with it except if you need LR escorts. the service number aint a problem if you have sufficent AV support and reasonable airbase sizes.

< Message edited by Gr�fin Zeppelin -- 10/20/2012 1:45:48 AM >

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/20/2012 2:19:31 AM

ny59giants

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You should be looking for or know where the following are in India and/or Burma (all are divisions):
1 Burma
17 Indian
23 Indian
14 Indian
6 Aussie (comes in in Aden, but could be back home)
7 Aussie (same as 6th)
20 Indian
19 Indian
26 Indian
7 Indian
2 Brit
18 UK (starts at Cape Town as war begins)
25 Indian

Add in the 254 and 255 Armored Bde

Allied Intel is not the magic crystal ball that some believe it is, but you need to expect that CF 'may' have sniffed out this. Since I see many plausible but doubtful preps in my game as Allies, the give away would be HQs prepping. How good has your multiple prepping for multiple objectives throughout the war been in giving CF false signals??

Good luck and happy hunting!!

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/20/2012 3:20:28 AM

princep01

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Based on past actions and responses in this game, I expect Whirlwind to blow away the Allies and be a SMASHING sucess. A great wind.....a kamikaze wind...... shall sweep the Allies out of Assam and trap their armies in Burma. Victory to the bold! Forward!

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/20/2012 4:00:27 AM

Cribtop

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Scattershot responses:

George is under heavy research, as is Frank. Can't remember current arrival dates but will check. Tony just came online, not planning to build a lot of this plane but will go with a few groups (probably just two).

Michael, that list is illuminating. I'll check against my records, but we have 2 Aussie Divs, the two British Divs, and all but about three of those Indian Divs sighted in Burma. Only Div confirmed still in Assam is 1st Burma at Imphal.

Princep - my gut tells me you are right. Time will tell, and worst case we should at least take Akyab and give CF the Willies on the way to establishing a solid front line.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/22/2012 5:15:49 PM

ny59giants

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Eli OWNS "Jerry's World."

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/22/2012 5:57:20 PM

JocMeister

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About the George,

As I wrote in my AAR. What is the fuzz about? I have not faced the AC in the game yet. Neither in PBEM nor in a AI game. So I fired up Tracker last night to have a look at it. But I don�t see anything spectacular. Pretty low speed, low range for a IJ aircraft, armour and good guns. Are the figures misleading? My experience so far has been that the only thing that really matter is speed and 360 something speed is not very good. Even some of the P40s are faster. What am I missing?

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/22/2012 7:35:24 PM

crsutton

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Gr�fin Zeppelin

Hmmm first time in 43 you say..... It is all about George. Uh hows yer research/arrival date ? To tell the truth, I am so found of this plane that I hope I never meet an attractive man with that name...ok just kidding but get dat plane. Zero was last year, this year its all about the George. Produce it in numbers and replace all land based Zeros with it except if you need LR escorts. the service number aint a problem if you have sufficent AV support and reasonable airbase sizes.

Hmmmmm....you girls always go for the wrong type. George is big and strong and nasty in a fight but bruises easy and take too long to recover. I would say that both the Frank and George are the easiest plane to kill on the ground. Because just like the P38, even after a winning fight the damaged aircraft are vulnerable to bombers. All service rating 3 aircraft need to be based on rail lines so that they can escape when the going gets bad.

I think the Japanese player needs to produce tojos and georges in equal numbers in 1943. Tojo is a bit outclassed but you got to have some service level 1 fighters to place at bases that are vulnerable to B17s.

My experience is that the hellcat has no problem taking on the george. The frank however is bad news for the hellcat. In AE, speed kills.

< Message edited by crsutton -- 10/22/2012 7:37:15 PM >

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/23/2012 12:42:19 AM

Cribtop

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January 3, 1942

Subs

CF wondered when he gets to see his cool new torpedoes. The sea lanes are temporarily empty except for short haul stuff to dodge the expected sub surge.

Gar duds on an xAK near Toyohara, perhaps the root of CF's comment.

SE Fleet

Tulagi is hit hard by IJAAF and IJNAF bombers. DA tomorrow.

Southern Army

Two big TFs, one mostly CAs, the other a mix of CV, CVL and TKs, are spotted by Glens moving West out of Perth. This sort of configuration is common for CF's big carrier forces. What are they up to? We will keep a close eye out while trying for a sub intercept.

Cribtop Intel wonders whether the enemy is trying to re-boot what looked like a Port Hedland invasion from a few weeks back, or if CF's big plan is to invade somewhere near Java. Only time and recon will tell. If needed MKB, Indes Fleet and Timor Sea Squadron (4CAs and DDs) would be available to counter this, along with LBA.

Burma

Recon bombing of Akyab shows that 45th Indian Brigade is the largest LCU present. Not enough to stop us if we go to Whirlwind Plan B. Speaking of that, one concern we have is the small forces in Imphal, Dacca and Ledo. We can defeat them, but worry about guerilla re-occupations of bases after the bulk of our forces move on. We can't afford to squat on the Assam bases once the LoC is cut.

The big fun today is a sweep then bomb effort against the Allied main army on the plains. CF puts up a big effort with both Hurri IIb and IIc models. 11th Sentai, a crack Tojo group with 77 average EXP, tears the enemy apart. Confirmed by Tracker, the final tally is 27:2(!). A Turkey Shoot! The bombers then go in against no opposition and do well. Banzai!

China

For the second day, there are no flak bursts over Kweiyang. Only Chungking and Tsuyung have flak anymore. China must be starving.

R&D

Great info on the plane types, folks. We are pushing pretty hard on Frank, George and the Tojo IIc model.

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 10/23/2012 12:47:11 AM >

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/23/2012 4:55:50 AM

Capt. Harlock

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quote:

But I don�t see anything spectacular. Pretty low speed, low range for a IJ aircraft, armour and good guns. Are the figures misleading? My experience so far has been that the only thing that really matter is speed and 360 something speed is not very good.

Unlike the Allies, the Japanese badly need a 4E killer. For this task, armor and guns are all-important, and speed counts for little.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/23/2012 5:00:46 AM

PaxMondo

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

quote:

But I don�t see anything spectacular. Pretty low speed, low range for a IJ aircraft, armour and good guns. Are the figures misleading? My experience so far has been that the only thing that really matter is speed and 360 something speed is not very good.

Unlike the Allies, the Japanese badly need a 4E killer. For this task, armor and guns are all-important, and speed counts for little.

+1

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/23/2012 6:26:52 AM

JocMeister

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Ah, yes I can see how it would do well against unprotected bombers!

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/23/2012 2:01:37 PM

ny59giants

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I'm at the end of 43 finally and the George with her 4x 20mm cannons is the best B-24 killer I have.

If your playing a game without any restrictions on altitude like I am, her ability to get above 40k helps.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/26/2012 7:37:21 PM

Cribtop

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January 4, 1943

Searaven torpedoes DD Wakatake in the South China Sea. The DD will try to make Cam Ranh Bay but it will be tough. We are worried that functional torpedoes will sink too many of our second line DDs, which are used to escort "Galleon" style TFs like this.

I-157 spots another supply convoy approaching its position near Viz but chooses today to get to bingo fuel and withdraws to Georgetown. Rats. Still, the sudden employment of these supply runs to Chittagong tells Cribtop Intel that all is not peaches and ice cream machines as far as the supply situation for CF's Burma invasion.

We hear unexplained Allied sub sinking sounds today. Best guess is that our ASW pilots out of Palembang really did hit a sub near Singers recently and she went down on the way home.

SE Fleet

We again go with a max air effort at Tulagi and then DA, obtaining odds of 43:1, casualties 195(4) vs 63(0). With those odds we will continue to attack with the 20th Division and a tank company but allow the rest of the small SNLFs making up the normal garrison to sit it out to avoid unnecessary casualties. The Marines here are doomed.

Airfields galore: Tulagi to 2, Manus to 4, Torokina to 2.

Southern Army

The last Whirlwind convoy will arrive at Singapore and unload tomorrow. The countdown continues. MKB is at full readiness, just 1 or 2 more SYS points to clear off of Soryu and a BB.

Burma

More recon bombing at Akyab shows 17th Indian Division (another division accounted for), 45th Indian Bde and 108th RN base force.

Search planes report two APs at Chittagong. We bet these are actually yet more xAKs dropping supply, as the number of LCUs at Chittagong did not increase.

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 10/26/2012 8:51:17 PM >

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/26/2012 8:27:13 PM

princep01

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Small thing, but might confuse a new reader....the heading immediately above should be January 4, 1943, right?

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/26/2012 8:52:13 PM

Cribtop

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Yep and fixed, Princep. We're so used to writing 1942 it was inevitable this typo would pop up!

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/26/2012 9:58:06 PM

zuluhour

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Nice AAR Crib. I spent a couple of days catching up and as Mike S seems to be awol, switched subscriptions. very exciting right now BTW.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/26/2012 11:36:41 PM

Cribtop

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Thanks, Zuluhour! This is indeed one of those periods of the war when things are coming to a head! One way or the other it seems a few first person accounts are in the near future.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/27/2012 2:17:51 AM

Cribtop

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January 5, 1943

Subs

An SSX on "monitor duty" suffers a battery explosion at TB and will be scuttled.

A Glen from I-17 detects three TFs in the same hex as its parent sub near Perth before being shot down by CV CAP. We find a CVTF with Oilers, a CA TF, and a TF with DDs and APDs reported. Armed with this report, I-17 vectors in and puts two TTs into the big AO Sabine, sinking her. What is CF doing loitering off Perth under observation? We must begin to assume something is up in the Southern Army AO.

Near Noumea, another Glen reports a big TF with DDs, TKs and a CVE. Looks like a fuel convoy, but we can't discount a Tulagi rescue attempt.

Escorts harass Snapper near Kendari. A Sally reports a hit on an S-boat near Formosa.

SE Fleet

B-24s attack the port at Milne Bay, doing minimal damage except for the obliteration of an AMC on mine tending duty.

DA Tulagi obtains 48:1 odds, casualties 123(3) vs 23(1). We will grind them down.

Truk forts go to 6, Madang goes to airfield 2.

Burma

90% of the last Whirlwind convoy unloads at Singers. We'll finish tomorrow. Then a few days to sort out ship related DIS and switch to combat mode. Then we board for the invasion!

We hit the main enemy army near Mandalay with the IJAAF. No enemy resistance in the air.

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 10/27/2012 2:19:24 AM >

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/27/2012 8:32:29 AM

obvert

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quote:

Searaven torpedoes DD Wakatake in the South China Sea. The DD will try to make Cam Ranh Bay but it will be tough. We are worried that functional torpedoes will sink too many of our second line DDs, which are used to escort "Galleon" style TFs like this.

Are you making use of your AVs in any of these TFs? So far I've made several large TFs that I designed with the idea they could traverse even the most difficult sub zones in open ocean.

They have an AV with Jakes flying 40% ASW 20% search at 6-8 hexes, an equal number of escorts to cargo ships (mostly Es, an SC or two, but commanded by at least one DD with Type 2 DCs), and usually have about 5-7 big fast TK. None of these TFs (spits over left shoulder three times) has had a ship hit yet.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/28/2012 2:55:45 AM

Cribtop

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Obvert, that's a good idea. I've been using AVs mostly to man dot base seaplane havens, but putting a few on Galleon duty would add more protection. I also have to get some ASW LBA deployed near Saigon and route convoys closer to the coast.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/28/2012 6:09:17 AM

Cribtop

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January 6, 1943

Subs

An Allied DD harasses I-32 near Noumea.

No sign of the Allied CVs off SW Oz, except for a SigInt signal from Perth. Did CF move back to port? We are still watching.

5th Fleet

Shikuka goes to port 5.

SE Fleet

A large force of 48 B-24s hits our seaplane base at Woodlark Island, lightly damaging the AV Kiyokawa Maru. The AV will fall back on Rabaul for repairs and then move to one of the islands south of Woodlark. The Jake group on nav search at Woodlark will lay low a day or two and then move to the new base. This is part of a long term plan to start north and move south just as CF starts getting interested in this region. At Rabaul, a G3M3 group takes over the nav search duties.

DA Tulagi nets 195:1 odds, casualties 455(23) vs 5(0). It appears the enemy is about to collapse here.

Burma

All Whirlwind forces are unloaded at Singers and switching to combat mode. All IJN combat ships detailed for the Op are at 0% SYS and ready to go. All air groups are fully stocked with planes and pilots. A big supply convoy arrives from the Home Islands with 120K supply.

China

We bomb Chikiang to confirm supply problems and are gratified that there are no flak bursts. An armored car unit reaches the key road junction west of Kweiyang to minimize supply flow from Kunming to Chungking.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/28/2012 9:58:28 AM

obvert

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Its hard to put AVs close to 4E range, as it draws a lot of attention, like above at Woodlark. Those little AF Coy units work as my forward seaplane support units, and there are enough to fill bases in both the So Pac and SRA areas.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/28/2012 2:33:03 PM

PaxMondo

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Its hard to put AVs close to 4E range, as it draws a lot of attention, like above at Woodlark. Those little AF Coy units work as my forward seaplane support units, and there are enough to fill bases in both the So Pac and SRA areas.

+1
Learned that from you and it does work. Might also try some 4E traps using AV + Rufe's. Rufe has decent range for Search (so you don't lose your picket completely and the disguise is in place) and enough firepower to take down a 4E or two. He can't afford too many losses like that until '44.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/28/2012 4:06:26 PM

zuluhour

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deleted due to lack of content

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/28/2012 5:02:11 PM

Cribtop

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Yeah, I've used my AVs like this primarily because so far CF has let me get away with it, probably time to change up.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/28/2012 10:17:06 PM

ny59giants

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23 - 0....OUCH!!

Its still early in the 2nd, but .....

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 10/28/2012 11:50:34 PM

zuluhour

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Look out ny59 things are a changin...

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