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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/17/2013 10:04:07 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

Man...to funny!


We're here all week, folks! Tip your veal!

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The Moose

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/17/2013 10:59:14 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Thanks to good ol' Bullwinkle, I've now gone back through SigInt reports - make that "aSigInt" reports - for April 20 through July 22.

Over enough time, SigInt usually paints a pretty accurate picture of what's where. There's always the chance that major omissions may totally skew the picture. To come to the point: I don't see anything alarming. In fact, the overall feel is reinforcing of my previous analysis/guesses/hunches.

From east to west:

Umnak: Karafuta Mixed Bde. (6/7); Karafuto planning attack on Cold Bay (7/4); NE Area Fleet (6/20); NE Fleet prepping for Akutan (6/29); 53rd Const'n Bn. (7/10); 92nd B.F. (7/11 and 7/20)
Adak: 5/2nd China Assault Div. (4/28); 5th Field A.F. Const'n Bn. (5/18); 3rd Air Flotilla (5/9 and 6/6); 93rd B.F. (many reports)
Amchitka: 5th Nav. Const'n Bn. (6/5)
Shemya: 39th NJAAF A.F. (5/25)
Attu: 4/8th Field AF Const. Bn (many reports); 5th JAAF AF (4/29 and 7/19)

Wild Card: 7th Div. just invaded Akutan. Does it stay there or does John pull it back to garrison another base. I'll need to bomb or recon to develop info - when the time is right. If he pulls that unit back to Attu Island, the equation changes significantly.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1472
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indiffident - 4/17/2013 11:15:35 PM   
Schlemiel

 

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Quite a long string of posts. Your not so secret agenda of beating Greyjoy in the post count is in full effect. Perhaps we should start another random discussion now that aSigIntGate has died down a little :) How 'bout them angels?

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Post #: 1473
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indiffident - 4/17/2013 11:22:45 PM   
Crackaces


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Schlemiel

Quite a long string of posts. Your not so secret agenda of beating Greyjoy in the post count is in full effect. Perhaps we should start another random discussion now that aSigIntGate has died down a little :) How 'bout them angels?


Then there is the false intel of the post count in the thread suddenly jumping up ... sort of like "Heavy Radio Traffic in CR's AAR thread ..."

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indiffident - 4/17/2013 11:52:30 PM   
Canoerebel


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That works too!

I just completed the 7/23 turn. I'll post an update later, but SigInt had a bit of Aleutians news (later I'll add this to the post above):

Umnak: 8th Field Const'n Bn.
Agattu: 2/5th AF Const'n Bn. on a maru inbound.

Agattu is one of the dot hexes (it's adjacent to Shemya and Attu) that I'm targeting. I "think" this shows that John is paying attention to the Aluetians, but not obsessed about it. IE, this smacks of "long-term" prep. Unless he does some big work in the next 40 days, I don't think garrisons are going to be a big obstacle. The key is the KB.

...and things are heating up very hot and very nice in the Bay of Bengal, meaning all conditions are ripe for John to commit the KB either there or Oz or somewhere in between. I think. I hope.

(in reply to Crackaces)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indiffident - 4/18/2013 12:01:07 AM   
Houtje

 

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Suppose that John comes to Bay of B. with the KB and lots of BB etc. He'd probably be able to gain supremacy there for a while and deny supply & reinf. TF to Ramree, right? If so, do you think will you be able to hold it if he comes for it, over land or sea?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indiffident - 4/18/2013 12:01:31 AM   
Cribtop


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Hilarious, CR. I always said my Dad was the least tech savvy person on Earth (although he is brilliant in non-tech areas). He once broke a VCR by stubbornly cramming the tape in backwards! He and my Mom once called to assert that "the Internet is gone!" They had accidentally deleted the shortcut to Safari.

After reading the previous SigInt posts, you might give dear old Dad a run for his money!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/18/2013 12:11:43 AM   
Nemo121


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I'm catching up on this AAR ( not reading John 3rd's side ) and thought I would comment as I came across posts in January which were interesting. CR, if you don't want me to comment just let me know and I'll desist.

1. Deep battle was raised by Princeps and then Alfred commented as follows:
quote:

would quickly point out that the current KB operations off New Zealand is not a "deep battle" operation. From a strategic POV, he would not be complimentary of the overall Japanese play.


Precisely. Haring off into the deep in order to chase down some strategically meaningless frippery isn't deep battle, it is the worst sort of flash over substance, tactical showboating ever. John3rd doesn't do strategy and deep thought. His personality is the key to understanding his play as it dictates much of his play.

As to what he is emulating with some of these thrusts... It isn't so much Tukhachevsky at Frunze or even Budenny during the 1920 Polish campaign getting bogged down at Lviv while the strategically decisive battle was taken place at Warsaw... No he harkens back to a much earlier time. It reminds me very much of Rameses II at Kadesh. He is forward with the Amun division dreaming of glory and mentally composing the poem and bulletin which will proclaim his capture of Kadesh when he realises that the Hittites are across the hill. He calls for the Seth, Re and Ptah (sic?) divisions to come up but as they take their time he gloriously confronts the enemy himself ( as the Amun division crumbles ). At the end of the day he has a draw from the battle, a great narrative of how awesome and daring he was in charging the Hittite lines when he was abandoned by the Amun division and the Amun division is totally and utterly trashed.... and its destruction was utterly avoidable and unnecessary.

The aftermath is always much like Kadesh also. There is slaughter on the field, much is made of the clamour and flashing of sunlight off armour and weaponry but, at the end, whether one considers it a win, draw or a loss, there isn't the logistically realistic underpinning to make it stick and so, as with Rameses II he retreats back to Egypt, writes his poem and bulletin and posts them at his temples at Luxor, Karnak and Abydos ( and elsewhere but I can't remember their names right now - the temples, of course being analogues to the forum threads ) and relies on the grandeur of his monuments to bear testimony to the grandeur of his "victory".

I've outlined a little for those who may not be familiar with the Battle of Kadesh. Bottom line though, I've used this example before because there really are striking similarities between Rameses II's conduct of the battle of Kadesh ( and his strategic and operational failures ) and John3rd's conduct of this and other campaigns. What's also helpful is that he can be relied upon to make the same errors time and again since they come from his personality and not from an error in assessment of enemy intentions or capabilities. I'd strongly suggest a quick refresher with the battle of Kadesh since John3rd emulates Rameses II's handling of his forces at Kadesh time and time and time again. Budenny at Lviv is another good example but Kadesh is smaller, clearer and more easily digested since its scale is tactical and operational and not grand strategic like Lviv was.

Obviously this is just my opinion.


2. A rather interesting discussion of the applicability of Deep Battle to naval tactics -harking back to Drake but, rather surprisingly, without any mention of Mahan which is unusual given the subject matter and nationalities of most contributors.

Bullwinkle makes some interesting points re: the differences between land warfare and naval warfare and the lack of "terrain features" in naval warfare while Crackaces talks of the grand strategic level ( off-map resources, reinforcement schedules etc... what the Soviets of the time would have termed grand strategic or national policy level matters ).

Two quick points re: this interesting discussion:
a) If one views islands as fortified terrain and chains of islands which project combat power such that it interlinks with projected combat power from other islands as a front line then one can view the Pacific as a front line with secondary lines, tactical depth ( that range into no-man's land or behind your lines to which the enemy's tactical bombers can operate ), operational depth ( that range into which an operation can be mounted without transitioning into your strategic depth - usually into the 1st or 2nd line of defence and no farther ) and strategic depth ( everything else ).

Deep battle is concerned with engaging the enemy geographically and temporally throughout their entire depth ( tactical, operational and strategic ) using all modalities ( the presence of force, the absence of force, the confirmation and/or denial of intelligence and the creation of maskirovka ) to both misdirect and direct the enemy such that you can most efficiently break into their strategic depth, dislocating their tactical and operational defences and forcing a strategic redeployment of enemy forces along, ideally, the entire zone of contact between your forces and theirs.

In simple terms, if you can hold Guadalcanal and can take the Marianas without getting hung up around Rabaul and Truk then why not do so? You'll render Rabaul and Truk irrelevant ( so long as your logistics are defensible ).

The key though with Deep Battle is that it is about engaging ( through combat, misinformation, misdirection etc etc ) all layers of the enemy's dispositions in order to shape the battlefield as you wish it to be and then striking at something strategically vital which dislocates their tactical and operational defences entirely. Does that mean you skip the fight in the tactical or operational zone? No, it just means you don't allow yourself to get bogged down there - the Soviets did this through the use of echelons all the way up to Front and Strategic Direction level ( which could be responsible for releasing a Tank Army into NATO's operational depth in pursuance of a strategic objective ) while the US sought to do this with AirLand Battle ( the engagement of Soviet echelons through their tactical, operational and strategic depth through the use of ground combat units, helicopters, operational and strategic airstrikes, A-teams and stay-behinds lasing Copperheads onto any tank with a really large aerial --- this was the US version of deep battle ) and the teaching of auftragstaktiken and "manoeuvre warfare".

Obviously everyone can view it through whatever prism makes most sense to them but, for me, those 4 layers ( grand strategic/national policy level, strategic, operational and tactical ) as well as the Soviet emphasis on controlling both what is and isn't seen/done etc ( as opposed to the Western orthodoxy of just focussing on what isn't seen/done ) are sensible, clear and easy enough to create a rubric around.

When push comes to shove though ---- whatever works for you works for you. No one person has a monopoly on the "right way" to do anything ( in this game or in life ).


3. Crackaces:
quote:

Of course most of the time I am thinking of John's moves at the level WHAT IS HE THINKING !!!????!!!!


LOL! Also, ny59giants is correct in post 687. Strong traits, strong.

< Message edited by Nemo121 -- 4/18/2013 1:21:49 AM >


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/18/2013 12:31:57 AM   
Crackaces


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The nuances of this analogy are relavent and striking ... I would event wager the "historians " in this forum see this contest as a "draw" at this point. However, once the Burma campaign gets underway .. there will be no question where this campaign is headed ..



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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/18/2013 12:43:47 AM   
Nemo121


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I'm only on page 11 of this AAR. Looking forward to what happens with Burma.

Prediction: Flash with no strategic significance countered by a slow but steady ( and effective ) buildup by the Allies which eschews the possibility of quick advances in favour of sure advances... all while John 3rd leads the Amun division into strategically irrelevant but flashy sideshows in other theatres. It makes for an exciting game but I feel a bit like Pierre Bosquet ;-).

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/18/2013 1:09:50 AM   
Canoerebel


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7/23/42
 
I have a massive hangover from the "asignt" fiasco.  Head hurts.  Hairs feel like they turned more gray.  Drool on chin.  Nevertheless, we did another turn.

Bay of Bengal:  Rapid escalation - I'm almost dead certain this will turn into a massive cauldron.  That's what I want.  At Ramree, Allied fighters do very well in handling enemy CAP and escorted raids, scoring a lopsided victory for the day.  No enemy TFs.  Lots of enemy subs scattered about (two xAK near Colombo are trashed).  I'm feeding more ships into the cauldron, including one CV, CVL Hermes, and a bunch of RN BBs.  I want to draw John to maximum effort (read:  KB). 

The Benefits and Problems of Ramree:  The proximity of so many big Allied airfields makes it hard for John to contest the waters from Chittagong to Ramree.  The downside for me is that my fighters take a long time to repair, so that I have skads of damaged ones marooned at Ramree temporarily.  I need more supply and another engineering unit (a Marine EAB is awaiting transport at Calcutta).  Ramree is 80% to level two airfield, which will help.  To answer Houtje's question, it is possible that John can bring enough to win a campaign for Ramree, but he will have to just about break the bank to do so.  I have 400 AV behind 2.8 forts.  I have the big supporting airfields nearby.  I control the seas at the moment.  And if it comes right down to it, I don't have to hold Ramree.  But I'll eventually have 2nd UK Div. and 41st USA Div. on the road close to Ramree.

NoPac:  All ships in the Bay of Bengal are "expendable" if they draw the KB and thus open up the Aleutians.  Not that I want to lose any, but I'm fighting for a bigger cause.  A mostly quiet day up this way - and quiet is good.  I'm wondering if John is going to come for Cold Bay or if he's scrubbed it to transfer assets to Bay of Bengal?  Not sure, but wondering...

CenPac:  Four BB bombard Tarawa.  Should fall soon.

SoPac:  2nd Div. begins amphibious landing at Luganville.  Should fall quickly.  The USN carriers are now far to the east of NZ's south cape.

Oz:  New Orleans is at Perth.  I don't want to make flagrant "too obvious" use of her (or Warspite when she arrives), but I do want to make sure John catches a whiff.  I may do this by orchestrating a bombardment on Exmouth in conjunction with a raid by 4EB, as though I want to suppress that airfield.

Misc:  That big support TF hung up in the Capetown Channel is finally out and en route to Cochin. 

John: He's flipping turns at a furious rate.  He's blood is up.  I think it's more than just Luganville and Tarawa etc.  I think it's Bay of Bengal, but I'll keep an eye open everywhere else.  Unless I miss my guess, though, he's turning all eyes on Burma (and keeping one on Oz on occasion) as he winds up his Gilberts operation.

(in reply to Nemo121)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/18/2013 1:12:59 AM   
witpqs


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

I'm only on page 11 of this AAR. Looking forward to what happens with Burma.

Prediction: Flash with no strategic significance countered by a slow but steady ( and effective ) buildup by the Allies which eschews the possibility of quick advances in favour of sure advances... all while John 3rd leads the Amun division into strategically irrelevant but flashy sideshows in other theatres. It makes for an exciting game but I feel a bit like Pierre Bosquet ;-).

I was thinking about some of your strategic monographs on this forum a few months ago when I read Russia Against Napoleon by Lieven. If you really had to sum up Russia's victory ultra-tersely, it would be that they tailored their strategy to Napoleon's personality. I greatly enjoyed the book and recommend it. Given the great depth you've delved into military history I'm not sure if you would find anything new there, but I suspect most western readers would.

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Post #: 1482
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/18/2013 1:29:39 AM   
pws1225

 

Posts: 1166
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From: Tate's Hell, Florida
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

I'm catching up on this AAR ( not reading John 3rd's side ) and thought I would comment as I came across posts in January which were interesting. CR, if you don't want me to comment just let me know and I'll desist.

1. Deep battle was raised by Princeps and then Alfred commented as follows:
quote:

would quickly point out that the current KB operations off New Zealand is not a "deep battle" operation. From a strategic POV, he would not be complimentary of the overall Japanese play.


Precisely. Haring off into the deep in order to chase down some strategically meaningless frippery isn't deep battle, it is the worst sort of flash over substance, tactical showboating ever. John3rd doesn't do strategy and deep thought. His personality is the key to understanding his play as it dictates much of his play.

As to what he is emulating with some of these thrusts... It isn't so much Tukhachevsky at Frunze or even Budenny during the 1920 Polish campaign getting bogged down at Lviv while the strategically decisive battle was taken place at Warsaw... No he harkens back to a much earlier time. It reminds me very much of Rameses II at Kadesh. He is forward with the Amun division dreaming of glory and mentally composing the poem and bulletin which will proclaim his capture of Kadesh when he realises that the Hittites are across the hill. He calls for the Seth, Re and Ptah (sic?) divisions to come up but as they take their time he gloriously confronts the enemy himself ( as the Amun division crumbles ). At the end of the day he has a draw from the battle, a great narrative of how awesome and daring he was in charging the Hittite lines when he was abandoned by the Amun division and the Amun division is totally and utterly trashed.... and its destruction was utterly avoidable and unnecessary.

The aftermath is always much like Kadesh also. There is slaughter on the field, much is made of the clamour and flashing of sunlight off armour and weaponry but, at the end, whether one considers it a win, draw or a loss, there isn't the logistically realistic underpinning to make it stick and so, as with Rameses II he retreats back to Egypt, writes his poem and bulletin and posts them at his temples at Luxor, Karnak and Abydos ( and elsewhere but I can't remember their names right now - the temples, of course being analogues to the forum threads ) and relies on the grandeur of his monuments to bear testimony to the grandeur of his "victory".

I've outlined a little for those who may not be familiar with the Battle of Kadesh. Bottom line though, I've used this example before because there really are striking similarities between Rameses II's conduct of the battle of Kadesh ( and his strategic and operational failures ) and John3rd's conduct of this and other campaigns. What's also helpful is that he can be relied upon to make the same errors time and again since they come from his personality and not from an error in assessment of enemy intentions or capabilities. I'd strongly suggest a quick refresher with the battle of Kadesh since John3rd emulates Rameses II's handling of his forces at Kadesh time and time and time again. Budenny at Lviv is another good example but Kadesh is smaller, clearer and more easily digested since its scale is tactical and operational and not grand strategic like Lviv was.

Obviously this is just my opinion.


2. A rather interesting discussion of the applicability of Deep Battle to naval tactics -harking back to Drake but, rather surprisingly, without any mention of Mahan which is unusual given the subject matter and nationalities of most contributors.

Bullwinkle makes some interesting points re: the differences between land warfare and naval warfare and the lack of "terrain features" in naval warfare while Crackaces talks of the grand strategic level ( off-map resources, reinforcement schedules etc... what the Soviets of the time would have termed grand strategic or national policy level matters ).

Two quick points re: this interesting discussion:
a) If one views islands as fortified terrain and chains of islands which project combat power such that it interlinks with projected combat power from other islands as a front line then one can view the Pacific as a front line with secondary lines, tactical depth ( that range into no-man's land or behind your lines to which the enemy's tactical bombers can operate ), operational depth ( that range into which an operation can be mounted without transitioning into your strategic depth - usually into the 1st or 2nd line of defence and no farther ) and strategic depth ( everything else ).

Deep battle is concerned with engaging the enemy geographically and temporally throughout their entire depth ( tactical, operational and strategic ) using all modalities ( the presence of force, the absence of force, the confirmation and/or denial of intelligence and the creation of maskirovka ) to both misdirect and direct the enemy such that you can most efficiently break into their strategic depth, dislocating their tactical and operational defences and forcing a strategic redeployment of enemy forces along, ideally, the entire zone of contact between your forces and theirs.

In simple terms, if you can hold Guadalcanal and can take the Marianas without getting hung up around Rabaul and Truk then why not do so? You'll render Rabaul and Truk irrelevant ( so long as your logistics are defensible ).

The key though with Deep Battle is that it is about engaging ( through combat, misinformation, misdirection etc etc ) all layers of the enemy's dispositions in order to shape the battlefield as you wish it to be and then striking at something strategically vital which dislocates their tactical and operational defences entirely. Does that mean you skip the fight in the tactical or operational zone? No, it just means you don't allow yourself to get bogged down there - the Soviets did this through the use of echelons all the way up to Front and Strategic Direction level ( which could be responsible for releasing a Tank Army into NATO's operational depth in pursuance of a strategic objective ) while the US sought to do this with AirLand Battle ( the engagement of Soviet echelons through their tactical, operational and strategic depth through the use of ground combat units, helicopters, operational and strategic airstrikes, A-teams and stay-behinds lasing Copperheads onto any tank with a really large aerial --- this was the US version of deep battle ) and the teaching of auftragstaktiken and "manoeuvre warfare".

Obviously everyone can view it through whatever prism makes most sense to them but, for me, those 4 layers ( grand strategic/national policy level, strategic, operational and tactical ) as well as the Soviet emphasis on controlling both what is and isn't seen/done etc ( as opposed to the Western orthodoxy of just focussing on what isn't seen/done ) are sensible, clear and easy enough to create a rubric around.

When push comes to shove though ---- whatever works for you works for you. No one person has a monopoly on the "right way" to do anything ( in this game or in life ).


3. Crackaces:
quote:

Of course most of the time I am thinking of John's moves at the level WHAT IS HE THINKING !!!????!!!!


LOL! Also, ny59giants is correct in post 687. Strong traits, strong.


Holy crap, Nemo is back! And in spades!!

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 1483
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/18/2013 2:25:55 AM   
Crackaces


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quote:

Holy crap, Nemo is back! And in spades!!


A sudden increase in post count .. nemo posting .... John has got to be freaking Where is CR going to strike next?

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Post #: 1484
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/18/2013 2:43:34 AM   
Nemo121


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Joined: 2/6/2004
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Finished catching up:
Interesting, Seth, Re and Ptah are split and frittering themselves away while the Hittites are just about ready to breach Amun's shield wall in Burma and this time they won't stop to loot the baggage trains. Well played so far CR.


witpqs,
In AE as in war the critical weakness is always man, more specifically the man who leads... that goes for your own side as much as the enemy.

That sounds like an interesting read and not one I have read. I think every good account of a campaign/person offers new information and/or viewpoints to readers and I'm sure I'll learn from this one thanks to your recommendation - I've just ordered it from Amazon. Thanks for the heads up.



< Message edited by Nemo121 -- 4/18/2013 2:47:16 AM >


_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 1485
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/18/2013 3:08:34 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
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From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline
Great to see Nemo again! I always wondered how he would respond to the page 11 discussion on Deep Battle. It was worth the wait.

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Post #: 1486
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/18/2013 4:57:46 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
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From: Winnipeg, MB
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Great to see Nemo again! I always wondered how he would respond to the page 11 discussion on Deep Battle. It was worth the wait.

+1 for sure!
After reading Nemo's post I am very glad we did not get into a hot war with the Russians. I get the sense that their national passion for chess would play out in some cunning battlefield management that would unhinge a lot of NATO plans. Better that we don't find out for sure [although with Putin around you never know]!

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Post #: 1487
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/18/2013 5:42:10 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
quote:

witpqs,
In AE as in war the critical weakness is always man, more specifically the man who leads... that goes for your own side as much as the enemy.

That sounds like an interesting read and not one I have read. I think every good account of a campaign/person offers new information and/or viewpoints to readers and I'm sure I'll learn from this one thanks to your recommendation - I've just ordered it from Amazon. Thanks for the heads up.


Glad to be of service! While never having studied much of Napoleonic military history, I was schooled with what I believe is the standard story over here. More or less that Russia relied on scorched earth out of utter desperation and sheer uncaring brutality. The reality related in that work is quite different. I also found myself learning about Russian society of the time and the realities of both her government and wartime leadership. Before reading it I would have considered the term "rich peasant" an oxymoron (aye, that's a minor teaser).

_____________________________


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Post #: 1488
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/18/2013 6:03:35 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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7/24/42

Nemo: It is indeed great to have Nemo back. I really enjoyed his post in the "Early War Allied Strategy" thread on the main AE page. Like most everybody, I have the highest regard for Nemo's knowledge. Thanks for chiming in, Nemo.

Aleutians: Holy cow! I got the worst (best?) SigInt report today: 7th Div. is aboard ships bound for Attu. (Of much less consequence, 15th Naval Guards is bound for Umnak.) This looks very much like John is standing down in the Aleutians and attending to his garrisons. Since Attu is the key to the entire operations for the Allies, this is a tough pill to swallow. I've switched prep for 1st Marine Div. (at Pearl) from Tarawa to Attu (each was 100%, so they reset to 25%). I can handle this development, but it becomes even more important now that I act only if the bulk of the KB is confirmed very far away. Since it's possible the KB could show up "very far away" at nealry any time beginning in a week or two (giving the KB elements to transit from the Jaluit area to wherever they might go), I'm working feverishly to get my ships where they need to be. But some - like Hornet - are 30+ days away no matter what I do.

Pacific: No move on Tarawa yet. 2nd Div. is ashore at Luganville and should attack tomorrow. USN carriers 25 hexes ESE of Dunedin, NZ, enroute to Tahiti (and thence either Pearl or San Fran).

Bay of Bengal: The Japanese airforce stood down today for the most part. I'm working to bring forward supply to Ramree, which is 85% to level two airfield.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/18/2013 6:04:31 AM >

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 1489
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/18/2013 6:43:22 AM   
JeffroK


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I'm glad to see that you have seen some sigint to create a slow down to your Aleutians adventure, or have you 3-4 really good divisions available to take on the 7th IJA??

Dont forget that its only July 42, you have a lot of time rather than being forced into a potential disaster, given your record, and your comments about Johns actions in the Aleutians, this might be one line of approach you have to work harder at.
Maybe mainland Alaska needs to build up more and be able to put pressure on the 'closer" islands before you attack into the rear. Basically, I think this line is shot for the moment, but has drawn a reasonable amont of japanese to make it so.

In Burma, shouldnt Ramree be the target of every transport aircraft you have, plus any under utilised bomber, to carry in supply in addition to your shipping.

I am dissapointed your Tarawa campaign didnt get more support, cleaning up Baker & Howland should have been phase 2 and could have been useful for flying or shipping supply into Makin/Tarawa. If you get into the Aleutians have you got the followup support in place as well, you cant rely on the attack TF's to also provide the second lift.

Again, dont listen to all of the monday morning quaterbacks, they have nothing to lose in this game and (on both sides) seem to want to force an action that you wouldnt see in their PBEM.

_____________________________

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1490
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/18/2013 7:15:57 AM   
Canoerebel


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Thanks, Jeff, that's some good counsel. I'm going to proceed with prep for the Aleutians campaign on the chance that the full KB shows up far away. I can handle 7th Div., but I can't handle 7th Div. and KB. So KB is the key. If I don't get the window, I'll stand down.

I had no window with the Gilberts campaign. You may recall that the KB had retired from the New Caledonia region to Tulagi - just 26 hexes from Tarawa - on D-Day. John committed the full KB plus sizeable surface assets immediately. They arrived on D-Day Plus Two. My carriers were in Oz and the Bay of Bengal, so I had zero chance to contest the seas. But his commitment to the Gilberts, in addition to whatever opportunity cost he incurred, gave me time to take Carnavon and near total freedom at Ramree for five weeks. That was nice.

Ramree will be getting supply. It's tough right now because it has an 8k limit. Since it's a frontline base with lots of air activity, raids incoming, and fort and airfield building, that makes it tough to supply. But I'm working on it. When it goes to level two airfield in a few days, that should make things a bit simpler.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/18/2013 7:18:57 AM >

(in reply to JeffroK)
Post #: 1491
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/18/2013 2:22:16 PM   
Canoerebel


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Pehaps I'll get SigInt three days from now that 7th Div. is at Adak or Paramushiro. Who knows. In light of the disappointing news that it is currently bound for Attu, this is the current "options" I'll mull over:

1. Continue with plan: Still the favorite if the KB should show up in the Bay of Bengal
2. Switch to the Kuriles: SigInt shows these are lightly garrisoned; but this too depends on the KB ending up far away.
3. Stand down: Use the accumulating PP to buy some of the restricted units in India to feed into the Burma campaign (this may be the preferred alternate).
4. Begin to identify the next "major" operation in the Pacific if 1. and 2. don't pan out. Oz, New Guinea, New Caledonia are possiblities.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1492
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/18/2013 3:02:53 PM   
Canoerebel


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7/25/42

NoPac: Continued quiet. Decent chance John is "standing down" and attending to garrisons. He might not come for Cold Bay after all. I think he wants it, but I think he felt a pressing need to commit the needed assets elsewhere. SigInt today that Shimishura Jima has roughly 2,500 men.

CenPac: No move on Tarawa or Abemama yet. Things are a bit quieter in this theater also.

SoPac: Luganville falls. USN carriers 30 hexes east of Dunedin and about to change course to NE to make the run into Tahiti.

Oz: New Orleans TF sighted by patrols out of Exmouth. Now she'll change course and make for the Bay of Bengal. I'm going to need more fighting ships there - especially destroyers at this point.

Bay of Bengal: IJN subs everywhere (one manages to claim KV Fresia, which is about the fifth time I've lost a dedicated ASW ship like frigate or destroyer, which is kinda annoying). No IJN air raids, which gives Ramree another breather. Next two turns pretty cirtical as three big xAKs bring their load from Akyab to Ramree, covered by two combat TFs and lots of fighters. Airfield 91% to level two; forts 2.86. Several RN BBs and the little CV group are nearing Viz. I'm going to post the BBs forward - moving them between Akyab and Chittagong in an effort to keep things "mixed up" so that John isn't getting a clear and consistent picture of Allied force disposition. But he's bringing the kitchen sink, so I'm going to take losses. But it's for a good cause.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1493
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/18/2013 5:18:13 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

Quite a long string of posts. Your not so secret agenda of beating Greyjoy in the post count is in full effect. Perhaps we should start another random discussion now that aSigIntGate has died down a little :) How 'bout them angels?

Well Greyjoy plays for the other team now so maybe in year we can arrange a shotgun wedding of a match. Don't know if either party would be happy since they like reading each others AAR's but the post counts would be through the roof.

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1494
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/18/2013 5:20:58 PM   
Canoerebel


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Storm warning flags are flying across the Bay of Bengal. It's already pretty hot, but I don't think I've seen anything yet....




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(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 1495
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/18/2013 5:27:27 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK
Again, dont listen to all of the monday morning quaterbacks, they have nothing to lose in this game and (on both sides) seem to want to force an action that you wouldnt see in their PBEM.


Yes. Like those that give advice about how to use bomber and transport aircraft, express opinions about lines of advance through the Aleutians (and pace thereof) and disappointment regarding abortive offensives through the Gilberts.

He's right, Dan. You should ignore these people's advice.

_____________________________


(in reply to JeffroK)
Post #: 1496
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/18/2013 5:41:33 PM   
Canoerebel


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Yeah!

I do understand where folks are coming from that have a contrary viewpoint about the Gilberts. I just happen to think - well, I know - that the Gilberts has been a complete and smashing success for the Allies.

I don't know how else to couch this - and it carries some bragging - but Japan has been hopping around for months dealing or focusing on the Aleutians, Gilberts, Exmouth and Bay of Bengal. John has done some good work in responding, but with the minor exception of New Caledonia and Luganville, he's not doing anything of his own choosing. For three months now (in the case of the Aleutians it's more like five). So he gets some plaudits, but he's sure spent alot of time and energy flailing about. :)

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 1497
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/18/2013 5:46:14 PM   
Canoerebel


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Here's an area where my strategy is definitely open to criticism and Monday morning quarterbacking. I took my line and stubbornly refused to go any further. I missed a chance to try to take and hold the Upper Burma cities. While I'm not positive this was the right move, I do have to live with the decision, which is to create a killing zone where the Allies can draw in the enemy and fight effectively. With good terrain, good interior lines (John already has some major hexside issues for his advanced divisions), good units (and lots more on the way) and big airfields in proximity, I think I've established the foundation. (But can I execute effectively?) I'm also fortunate that thus far supply hasn't been a problem. India is flush and its trickling forward.




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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1498
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/18/2013 6:51:50 PM   
Cap Mandrake


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Ahhhhhh....."aSigint" is "arried"

That-ah exprains a few things.

< Message edited by Cap Mandrake -- 4/18/2013 6:54:18 PM >

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1499
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/18/2013 6:56:14 PM   
Canoerebel


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Can the Allies handle 7th IJA Division at Attu Island? Yes, on condition that the KB is in the Bay of Bengal to give me the needed time. I'll have at least 900 AV available at the time of an invasion. If the KB is in the Bay, the Allies should be able to pummel the island by air and sea. It will be challenging, but I think it is doable.

Everything hinges on the KB now. It's almost as though John took precautions in the Aleutians to see to his defenses knowing that his carriers were not going to be available for awhile. We'll see.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
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