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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2013 4:20:33 PM

Canoerebel

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So, what's John thinking these days? He isn't posting in his AAR, which is unusual, but he is making the occasional "pregnant" comment in his emails. It's fun trying to piece together an intelligence summary from bits and pieces and comments and tidbits. I think I've come up with a reasonable analysis, but I could be way, way off (as you will know from reading his AAR).

John has probably just finished upgrading his carriers. He views the massive activity in the Bay of Bengal with interest. He wants to attack, but he thinks it's a feint intended to draw him away from NoPac. While his carriers were in the yards, he beefed up his garrisons in NoPac to withstand an assault. Now he wants to position his carriers where they can respond to an Allied move. He knows that SoPac is vulnerable, way out there at the end of his LOC, but it's relatively insignificant.

He is probably posting his carriers at one of three locations - Saipan, Truk or Babeldaob. I'd be surprised if he posted them further SE - Rabaul or Tulagi or Kwajalein. They might also be in Japan. There is also a small chance that he beefed up the Aluetians so that he could detach his carriers into the Bay of Bengal to overwhelm my forces there.

He's not going to maintain his "hair trigger" stance with respect to NoPac forever. And he's fighting the urge to go raiding - to use his carriers in the ways that call to him. It would be great to see them employed somewhere in the next three weeks, but I'm not counting on it.

Bottom Line: I still expect a massive surface combat action in the Bay of Bengal, possibly but not likely augmented by carriers. I think the carriers are in western CenPac.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1741

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2013 4:35:47 PM

Paladin1dcs

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Quick question about your TFs leaving the West Coast and Pearl. Have you had any IJN SS sightings in that area at all recently? Are you completely undetected? I ask because it would seem, considering the amount of shipping that's moving from those two ports not only for this operation but for general operations and logistics, that this area would be constantly watched by IJN units of some type. At least I would post SS around my opponents' major shipping ports, especially if I had the ability to use sub-based FP to scout those areas.

You mentioned that John is using xAKLs to scout up in NORPAC, does this hint at a possible weakness that you could expoit? Is Japan really that short of recon assets in John's mod?

I realize that these are pretty basic questions, but John seems to be the type that plays fast and loose with the basics to try to go for the big score quickly, so I'm wondering if he's overly susceptable to being tripped up in regard to his basics such as scouting and planning. He's already shown a weakness, which you've exploited, in land combat by not utilizing combined arms, so I wonder if that same mindset translates to naval issues as well.

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Post #: 1742

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2013 5:28:40 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

So, what's John thinking these days? He isn't posting in his AAR, which is unusual, but he is making the occasional "pregnant" comment in his emails. It's fun trying to piece together an intelligence summary from bits and pieces and comments and tidbits. I think I've come up with a reasonable analysis, but I could be way, way off (as you will know from reading his AAR).

John has probably just finished upgrading his carriers. He views the massive activity in the Bay of Bengal with interest. He wants to attack, but he thinks it's a feint intended to draw him away from NoPac. While his carriers were in the yards, he beefed up his garrisons in NoPac to withstand an assault. Now he wants to position his carriers where they can respond to an Allied move. He knows that SoPac is vulnerable, way out there at the end of his LOC, but it's relatively insignificant.

He is probably posting his carriers at one of three locations - Saipan, Truk or Babeldaob. I'd be surprised if he posted them further SE - Rabaul or Tulagi or Kwajalein. They might also be in Japan. There is also a small chance that he beefed up the Aluetians so that he could detach his carriers into the Bay of Bengal to overwhelm my forces there.

He's not going to maintain his "hair trigger" stance with respect to NoPac forever. And he's fighting the urge to go raiding - to use his carriers in the ways that call to him. It would be great to see them employed somewhere in the next three weeks, but I'm not counting on it.

Bottom Line: I still expect a massive surface combat action in the Bay of Bengal, possibly but not likely augmented by carriers. I think the carriers are in western CenPac.

Hmmm...so EITHER his carriers are at one of five obvious historical Japanese bastions OR they're...um... not? If they're not, they are EITHER en route for the Bay of Bengal OR they're en route somewhere else? Lastly, if John comes to the Bay of Bengal in force, he MAY bring a massive surface raider force alone OR in conjunction with carrier support?

Wow. Very impressive noodling, CR!

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Post #: 1743

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2013 5:34:33 PM

Canoerebel

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To this point, the long string of transport, combat, carrier and support TFs strung out over the Pacific seem to be moving in a black hole. I haven't seen the slightest indication of detection. No enemy subs have been seen in this region. The closeset have been a few operating north of Pearl, near Christmas Island, and one still lurking between Wellington and Christ Church. The latter (and any companions it might have) is the only area of concern.

I don't think John is particular short of patrol assets in this mod, though he may have such a pressing need for so many places that he might feel stretched. But the use of picket ships south of the Aleutians certainly makes sense. I'd do it too if I were him.

I have two important decisions to make over the next ten days:

1) I can shorten my time in transit if I route my ships north of New Zealand rather than south. However, the odds of encountering a sub (they've been posted there before) or patrols out of Noumea makes this too risky. I probably won't do this unless I get a KB sighting far away that prompts me to throw caution to the wind in favor of speed.

2) As long as this apparent "black hole" exists (no signs of detection, no sign of serious enemy ship movements in theater, no SigInt of troops in bound, no sign of vigorous base building), I won't try any feints in the theater targeted. If, however, the black hole is breached, I may use a CVE (or both of them) to feint at New Caledonia just before creating a larger feint in NoPac. The intent would be to persuade John that I was obviously not targeting anything down this way, thus heightening his concerns about the Aluetians.

(in reply to Paladin1dcs)

Post #: 1744

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2013 5:35:57 PM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
Wow. Very impressive noodling, CR!

It's even less impressive when you consider that I may be totally wrong.

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Post #: 1745

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2013 5:37:10 PM

Chickenboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
Wow. Very impressive noodling, CR!

It's even less impressive when you consider that I may be totally wrong.

Yes. I agree.

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Post #: 1746

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2013 2:27:39 AM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

To this point, the long string of transport, combat, carrier and support TFs strung out over the Pacific seem to be moving in a black hole. I haven't seen the slightest indication of detection. No enemy subs have been seen in this region. The closeset have been a few operating north of Pearl, near Christmas Island, and one still lurking between Wellington and Christ Church. The latter (and any companions it might have) is the only area of concern.

I don't think John is particular short of patrol assets in this mod, though he may have such a pressing need for so many places that he might feel stretched. But the use of picket ships south of the Aleutians certainly makes sense. I'd do it too if I were him.

I have two important decisions to make over the next ten days:

1) I can shorten my time in transit if I route my ships north of New Zealand rather than south. However, the odds of encountering a sub (they've been posted there before) or patrols out of Noumea makes this too risky. I probably won't do this unless I get a KB sighting far away that prompts me to throw caution to the wind in favor of speed.

2) As long as this apparent "black hole" exists (no signs of detection, no sign of serious enemy ship movements in theater, no SigInt of troops in bound, no sign of vigorous base building), I won't try any feints in the theater targeted. If, however, the black hole is breached, I may use a CVE (or both of them) to feint at New Caledonia just before creating a larger feint in NoPac. The intent would be to persuade John that I was obviously not targeting anything down this way, thus heightening his concerns about the Aluetians.

Setting up and monitoring/maintaining a patrol network of subs and patrol aircraft is tedious, time-consuming work - and it must be done every turn. If John really does like to get to the action and flip turns quickly he may be neglecting the net that should have detected your convoys long ago! E.G. Glen float planes used at max range suffer high ops losses, and if you don't check on that detail you start getting holes in your search net.

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Post #: 1747

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2013 4:25:42 AM

AcePylut

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Good points BB... they "work around" I've found for this (cuz I just don't have time or patience to click on each unit every turn, then make 4 or 5 clicks to reset orders per unit. That's about 10 billion clicks per turn :) )... is to set each unit for around 30% rest. That seems to keep most of them up and flying, and by clicking on the "all air groups" button each turn (or whatever it's called up in the top task bar thing), filtering out all but the search, and looking at how many are damaged, or low on ac/pilots, I get enough of an overview each turn. Every 7 -10 days I look at each unit more closely as a matter of routine. Seems to work pretty well. I guess.

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Post #: 1748

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2013 5:15:10 AM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

Good points BB... they "work around" I've found for this (cuz I just don't have time or patience to click on each unit every turn, then make 4 or 5 clicks to reset orders per unit. That's about 10 billion clicks per turn :) )... is to set each unit for around 30% rest. That seems to keep most of them up and flying, and by clicking on the "all air groups" button each turn (or whatever it's called up in the top task bar thing), filtering out all but the search, and looking at how many are damaged, or low on ac/pilots, I get enough of an overview each turn. Every 7 -10 days I look at each unit more closely as a matter of routine. Seems to work pretty well. I guess.

Does that work with Glens - 1 per sub?

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Post #: 1749

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2013 6:05:53 AM

AcePylut

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dunno. 50% Nav search also builds exp for the lower exp Netties. I'm not sure how many people use bombers to "keep watch" over a supposedly quiet area though.

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Post #: 1750

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2013 1:21:41 PM

Chickenboy

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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

To this point, the long string of transport, combat, carrier and support TFs strung out over the Pacific seem to be moving in a black hole. I haven't seen the slightest indication of detection. No enemy subs have been seen in this region. The closeset have been a few operating north of Pearl, near Christmas Island, and one still lurking between Wellington and Christ Church. The latter (and any companions it might have) is the only area of concern.

I don't think John is particular short of patrol assets in this mod, though he may have such a pressing need for so many places that he might feel stretched. But the use of picket ships south of the Aleutians certainly makes sense. I'd do it too if I were him.

I have two important decisions to make over the next ten days:

1) I can shorten my time in transit if I route my ships north of New Zealand rather than south. However, the odds of encountering a sub (they've been posted there before) or patrols out of Noumea makes this too risky. I probably won't do this unless I get a KB sighting far away that prompts me to throw caution to the wind in favor of speed.

2) As long as this apparent "black hole" exists (no signs of detection, no sign of serious enemy ship movements in theater, no SigInt of troops in bound, no sign of vigorous base building), I won't try any feints in the theater targeted. If, however, the black hole is breached, I may use a CVE (or both of them) to feint at New Caledonia just before creating a larger feint in NoPac. The intent would be to persuade John that I was obviously not targeting anything down this way, thus heightening his concerns about the Aluetians.

Setting up and monitoring/maintaining a patrol network of subs and patrol aircraft is tedious, time-consuming work - and it must be done every turn. If John really does like to get to the action and flip turns quickly he may be neglecting the net that should have detected your convoys long ago! E.G. Glen float planes used at max range suffer high ops losses, and if you don't check on that detail you start getting holes in your search net.

Aye. If he used them at a high % NavSearch at extended range, OPS losses could be expected in short order. However, for normal range at a 60-70% NavSearch setting, I rarely have problems with Glen OPS losses.

Then again, this pattern has some search 'holes' in it too. Not all Glens will fly on all days and the range is limited-thereby something can slip through the system.

So you build an overlapping meshwork and hope for a little bit of luck too.

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Post #: 1751

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2013 2:03:25 PM

Canoerebel

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9/8/42

NoPac: No altercations of any kind. The airfield at the dot hex west of Kodiak is 35% to level one. When this reaches level one, will that have the effect of stirring John's spidey senses or will it have the opposite effect of making him wonder, "Hmm, he's being too obvious." I'm weighing that now.

CenPac: Quiet. A few small "fake" amphibious TFs are gathering in and near Midway. At the appropriate time, these will move north behind the screen of three picket DDs. When that happens, a mass of Allied TFs will also move west from south of Kodiak.

SoPac: The lead TFs are nearly half way between Tahiti and NZ.

SWPac: Port Moresby airfield goes to level six.

Bay of Bengal: IJN subs laying mines at Chittagong and Akyab. It looks like one hit an Allied mine and sank, but an Allied DMS hit an enemy mine and went down. Enemy carriers (showing 36 F, 35 B, 1 Aux) are at Port Blair. While I still think the full IJN will hit the Allies at Akyab sooner or later, it's hard for me to believe that such a massive, juicy, exposed targets has been posted there for three months without John throwing everything at them.

Burma: The second Aussie div. teleported, joining the first in the open terrain. Tomorrow, these two units will attack what I think is a small enemy unit. 41st USA Div. moves into the open in three days or less.

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Post #: 1752

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2013 2:06:38 PM

GreyJoy

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what do you mean with "teleport"?

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Post #: 1753

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2013 2:10:49 PM

Canoerebel

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An Aussie division in a contested jungle hex was moving west through a friendly hexside to another jungle hex and had made 45 of 46 miles. The next turn, instead of moving into the adjacent hex to the west, it crossed an enemy hexside and arrived in an adjacent hex to the SE. The same thing happened with the first divsion about a week ago.

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Post #: 1754

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2013 2:16:19 PM

GreyJoy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

An Aussie division in a contested jungle hex was moving west through a friendly hexside to another jungle hex and had made 45 of 46 miles. The next turn, instead of moving into the adjacent hex to the west, it crossed an enemy hexside and arrived in an adjacent hex to the SE. The same thing happened with the first divsion about a week ago.

Very very strange behaviour! Gotta check...

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Post #: 1755

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2013 2:22:21 PM

Encircled

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Damn, those Aussies are good!

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Post #: 1756

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2013 6:57:45 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

Damn, those Aussies are good!

1st Kalgoorlie Kangaroo Korps - they'll hop over anything!

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Post #: 1757

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2013 9:57:55 PM

JeffroK

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Wot!!!

The Pub's in the next hex???

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Post #: 1758

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/12/2013 1:56:32 PM

Encircled

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One of my favourite ever adverts

XXXX ad

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Post #: 1759

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/12/2013 2:23:59 PM

Canoerebel

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9/9/42

I'm on dial-up this morning, so won't be able to check out the ad, Encircled, until work tomorrow.

John: Due to some real life considerations, John politely asked for a slow-down on some days of the week. He also indicated that he's been flipping turns too fast, not giving some areas enough attention. I take this as meaning he's beginning to think the Allies are looking somewhere other than the Aleutians. We'll see.

Bay of Bengal: Two enemy carrier TFs at Port Blair. I don't think this is the full KB.

Burma: One of the two Aussie divisions attacks (oops, I apparently left the other in "move" mode) and gets 1:1 vs. 38th IJA Div. Both Aussie divs. will attack tomorrow. 754 Tanks emerged into the open hex to the NE and will join the Aussies. 41st USA Div. is in the open just to the SW and is likely to remain there until the issue in the Aussie hex is decided.

NoPac: An array of Allied shipping in the eastern Gulf of Alaska on legit missions, but mainly intended to draw enemy awareness.

CenPac: The American carriers to depart Pearl in eight days. Most of the TFs carrying key combat units are now between Tahiti and NZ. No sign of detection.

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Post #: 1760

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2013 2:37:56 PM

Canoerebel

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9/10/42

Bay of Bengal: Enemy CV force showing 77 F, 55 B, 3 Aux is between Port Blair and Rangoon. That's probably not an accurate count - usually cursor intel on carriers errs decidedly low when detection is modest or low, so I think this is a pretty substantial force. Moderate raids on Ramree. I have the option of sending fighters in unless John ramps things up a bit. The P-40K is available and one fighter squadron has swapped for it. So with that model and the P-39F online, the Americans pools aren't as meager as they seemed. (I don't have any P-39s in my pools, which is kind of alarming.)

Burma: The two Aussie divisions got 6:1 odds vs. 38th Div. but failed to boot it from the hex (100+ enemy squads were disabled). Shock attacks tomorrow. John will probably send in all his air and one of the Aussie units already has very high disruption. Even with a max enemy air effort, the Aussies should evict the Japanese with high losses unless enemy ground reinforcements arrive. This is a key battle - if the Allies can trash this second IJA division and open up this hex for transit, the Japanese position will become considerably more vulnerable. 4EB at very high altitudes went against a variety of enemy airfields mainly to interact with enemy CAP. Some of those flying at Magwe and Mandalay dealt with 70 Tojos (!!!), but the big beasts did a good job of attriting the enemy combat aircraft.

NoPac: Enemy sub sinks an escort DD at Seward (an ASW PG was sunk near Tasmania two days ago - this makes like 10 to 15 ASW or escort DDs or other small craft sunk by enemy subs to date - an annoyingly high number). More transport TFs departing Seattle for NoPac and additional "fake" TFs departing Pearl for the Midway vicinity (these will approach the western Aleutians from the south).

CenPac/SoPac/SWPac: The two upgrading American carriers at Pearl will be ready in six days. By then, all transport TFs will be at or past Tahit, with some between NZ and Oz. D-Day might be as soon as 25-30 days. That's still a long time away. Enemy patrols recon Brisbane - another indicator that John is beginning to cast nets in different directions, no longer confident that the Allies are moving on the Aleutians?

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/13/2013 2:39:00 PM >

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Post #: 1761

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2013 2:43:12 PM

Nemo121

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quote:

He also indicated that he's been flipping turns too fast, not giving some areas enough attention

No-one's forcing him to do this. If he's doing this then it is simply as a result of his own choice(s). Is it possible that as he's getting out of the "HULK smash everything in sight" stage of commanding Japan in the game that he's beginning to lay the groundwork for quitting due to RL commitments etc?

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Post #: 1762

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2013 2:55:29 PM

Canoerebel

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I don't think so. In our previous hard-fought WitP game about six years ago, John and I went into 1945. He seems game, and given our long-time friendship I feel like he's good for the long haul. However, if the wheels come off, sometimes all bets are off (as in any PBME match). I have no idea if or when the wheels might come off in this game, but as with any Allied player, I'd like nothing better than to pry them loose and leave my noble opponent a quivering bundle of nerves and tears.

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Post #: 1763

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2013 4:48:07 PM

Chickenboy

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Well, pry harder, will ya? I've got a ten spot riding on you getting the wheels off before 1944!

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Post #: 1764

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2013 4:50:40 PM

Canoerebel

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9/11/42

Bay of Bengal: No sign of those enemy carriers today. No raids vs. Ramree, but I don't want to defend the island until my P-40K unit is ready (just one fighter is ready a day after the unit swapped aircraft). I "bought" an Indian brigade at Chittagong. Tonight begins the operation to move this to Ramree via APD. A Punjab unit late at Diego Garcia is enroute to Cochin. From there, it goes to Calcutta or Chittagong. It, too, will move forward to Ramree. That will give the defense roughly 700 AV, which should be enough to handle anything.

Burma: The Australian attack fizzled due to lack of supply and disruption - inflicting more casualites on the IJA division but failing to boot it from the hex. Also, although the Aussies control these hexsides, the Allied units NE and SW cannot move into the hex although they control the pertinent hexsides too. This whole "teleport" thing has been weird. I'm going to move the Aussies SW on the assumption they will have a hard time drawing supply. Helens en masse hit the Aussies today with modest effect, but lost 14 aircraft to very effective flak.

Pacific: Lots of Allied shipping moving around NoPac and near Midway. In another apparent glitch, my carrier status at Pearl hasn't changed in three days - one needs five more days; the other six more. I don't know what's holding them up, but it's not a big deal if it shakes out in a few days. I'll need more time to get units over to Oz anyway. Still no signs of major enemy preparations or awareness in the targeted area.

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Post #: 1765

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2013 6:41:28 PM

Canoerebel

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9/12/42

Bay of Bengal: Massive enemy Tojo sweeps over Akyab - John's first foray into the primary Allied bastion. I counted 154 Tojos spread between roughly eight groups - the most with 30, the least with 3. The Allies had 135 fighters on CAP - a big mix of everything. I think the Allies won a big victory on the day - downing 55 Tojos (46 a-2-a, 9 ops) to about the same number of Allied fighters. But the Allied squadrons are still in good shape and I can bring in lots more, so the Allied abiilty to fight hasn't been degraded. The Tojo squadrons, on the other hand, should be a little beaten up for the short term. This may be important, because two enemy CV TFs are reported four hexes north (true) of Port Blair - my patrols report 7 CVE with 32 F, 23 B, 0 Aux plus one CV with 46 F, 33 B, 0 Aux. True number may be considerably beefier. Could the enemy be moving on Ramree? I wonder. APDs brought to Ramree roughly 90 AV from an Indian brigade at Chittagong, boosting AV to 535.

Burma: More raids - but less intense - over the Australians today. 41st USA Div. is guarding the hex to the SW. I think a nearly isolated IJA division in the jungle is going to try to exit into this hex. If the Americans are up to the task, this will give the Allies a crack at yet another enemy infantry division.

China: Back-to-back enemy attacks (first deliberate, then shock) at Chengte get 1:2 and 1:1 odds. Losses on both sides are light. Disablements much higher for Japan. The Chinese AV has dropped and won't recover well, so I'll bring forward a 435-AV unit from the adjacent hex.

NoPac: A three-DD IJN TF tangles with DD Blue far south of Adak, sinking her. An IJN sub sinks an xAK near Seward.

CenPac: The two upgrading USN carriers at Pearl still stuck on 5 and 6 days, respectively. Don't know what the hold up is.

SoPac: Enemy sub found just east of Auckland. Glen flies over that base. John's been nosing around here and SE Oz, but thus far isn't picking up anything interesting (mainly because my massive chain of TFs hasn't drawn close enough yet. The lead TF is 15 hexes out of Dunedin. Odds are the Japanese will catch wind of something as my TFs transit this choke point. Each TF, after passing Dunedin, will go to either Hobart or Sydney to unload and then, when the time comes, to combat load. If by some chance John hasn't caught wind of them by then, I'm sure he'll do so once the amphibous armado moves north and passes Brisbane.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1766

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2013 7:09:43 PM

Canoerebel

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John indicated he "really" wanted to run this turn, then added he wanted to do so with "popcorn and peanuts." Unfortunately, he's running errands for awhile, so he's left me hanging.

Something big is in the offing. My guess is that he's finally moving in the Bay of Bengal in a big way. Most likely this might mean a combination of combat ships and carrier to try to whack my own combat ships and aircraft at Akyab. Less likely, but possible, would be an amphibious move on Ramree Island.

If he comes in great strength, I might get a whacking. But the Allied defenses are pretty stout. I have roughly six combat TFs at Akyab. Each night, three of them visit Ramree to guard against enemy bombardment TFs (that's never happened, so resetting my TFs every day for the past many months has grown a bit tedious). The three visiting Ramree are the Vincennes TF, the New Orleans/Helena TF, and a little TF with Boise and two DDs. Remaining at Akyab are the Pensacola TF, a small CL TF, and a TF with BB Revenge and CA Cornwell. For tonight, I also ordered two combat TFs at Chittagong - one with BB Ramilles and Royal Sovereign and CA Dorsetshire and the second led by CA Cornall - to move to Akyab and back. So there's going to be enough Allied combat ships in the region to prevent a nuclear bombardment that would close Akyab's airfield....I think and hope! Akyab has 220 fighters, Cox has 54, and Chittagong has 150. Those at Chittagong won't cover Akyab, of course, but it does provide some indepth defense.

Something big is coming at some point this afternoon. I think I'll go for a little seven-mile run in the mountains to relax a bit before the carnage takes place.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1767

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2013 7:59:06 PM

pws1225

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quote:

little seven-mile run

Is there such a thing?

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Post #: 1768

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2013 9:58:35 PM

Canoerebel

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Okay, so a seven-mile run in the mountains isn't "little," but by "little" I mean close by and convenient. I went, I did, I staggered, I lurched, I finished. Now I'm back drinking a big cup of unsweet ice tea. No turn from John, so I must be patient.

During said little run, I pondered what John's been up to. His latest air raid was sufficient to eventually overcome my CAP - IE, his last sweeps came in against little or no opposition. So he might surmise that another such sweep will also overcome my CAP, permitting carrier- and land-based strike aircraft to target my shipping.

Secondly, I wonder if he might be prepaing to cross the channel and shock attack with perhaps three divisions, preceded by BB bombardments of the Allied troops at Ramree. This, too, might be effective. My guesstimate of the Allied AV: 300 x 2 for 100% prep; 530 x 2 for jungle terrain; 530 x roughly .25 for presence of an HQ unit plus three forts = adjusted AV of roughly 1750. All units are fully supplied. Bombardment and bombings might erode the AV a bit, but it would probably take at least four divisions to have a prayer of victory in anything but the long term. It would be a decisive Allied victory if Japan commits two or three divisions that get bogged down in that remote outpost, pinned there by a hodgepodge of small units while the major Allied combat units are moving out in Burma proper.

But if there's a titanic sea battle at Ramree and/or Akyab, John's had time to bring all his big stuff and plenty of it, so the Allies are going to take a pretty hard lick.

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Post #: 1769

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2013 11:06:28 PM

JeffroK

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An advantage of going metric, a 7 kilometre run is so much easier1

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