AcePylut
Posts: 1494
Joined: 3/19/2004 Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Nemo121 Acepylut, Simple answer.... Logistics and prep. Dan has prepped this enough that even such a delay won't stop his landings succeeding. The only danger now is terrible luck scuppering even hs superior plans. I not think that'll happen though and t worst we'll have a tactical draw which is also a US win. I thought about that – reviewed things from all three levels of strategy (Tactical, Operational, Strategic)… Strategically (Grand Strategy Level), Dan has achieved a surprise. All moves recently have focused on “what CanofRebel” is doing in the Coral Sea. The initiative has officially, firmly, and unequivocally turned in favor of the Allies in this game. Operationally, Dan has achieved great surprise. This Operational Surprise accounts for all the troop prep and logistics necessary to successfully invade and repel counterattacks. Excellent Job Can Of Rebellion. Dan is prepped and has the guns and butter to make it work. Jon seems to be scrambling to throw up a defense of likely targets. Tactically, there is no surprise. Jon’s moves, as noted in this AAR by Dan, and those email comments, make it obvious that a large battle is about to commence. For Jon to “win” this battle on all three layers, Jon needs to take advantage of the only place he has parity – and right now, that’s the Tactical Level. The only way he wins on the Tactical is to defeat the invasion – either on land, in the sea, or in Dan’s head. If Jon kills the invaders on land in a tactical battle, it instantly becomes an operational level victory for Jon. Kill the invaders in the ships, same thing. Make Dan willingly turn the invasion around, the operation fails, Jon wins on the Operational Level. Any Operational Level victory by Jon pushes out the Strategic initiative Dan has by at least 2 months (2 months to re-prep and re-position forces minimum) unless winning that Operational Level cost Jon the KB, in which of couse Jon will have won Operationally (invasion failed) but lose strategically (lost his KB). So how does Jon win on the Tactical level when disadvantaged on the Operational? Of the many ways it can be done (sink the troops, the ships, lucky die rolls, a sub placed in just the right place, etc.), one way that Jon move towards parity on the Operational Level is to delay the invasion. Every day that he gets before the troops land, Dan’s advantage in Operational Level surprise decreases… Jon’s troops gain prep -albeit not much prep (3-7 points total over 3-7 days?) – but what if that extra prep is enough to slide his unit to a level that reduces the AV drop from too little prep? What if, in those 3-7 days, Jon airlifts enough troops into to take that 2-1 to a 1-1 and stall the invasion (how many troops, raw AV, HQ, etc. can you bring into a base in 3-7 days? Is that enough to turn the tide). What if in those 3-7 days, his fort levels increase 1 and that does the trick? Will Dan be able to sustain these invasions for 2 weeks, 1 month, etc. if the battles turn into a stalemate on bases controlled by the IJ? Imho, if Dan has already decided to invade, I don’t see any gain to be had by delaying another week. The hope of delaying at this point in time, is to hope that he guessed right on Jon’s proclivity to “see big bait, go after big bait no matter what” tendency. It’s a good gamble for sure given Jon’s play, but yet, it’s still a gamble. If Jon, against all his wishes and desires, doesn’t take the bait, then after those 3-7 days, Dan has gained nothing but lost something on the Operational Level. I bet the invasion will either be cancelled, or a heck of a lot bloodier, if delayed. If the decision to invade is a “wait and see”, I’ll bet money that by the end of that waiting period, if Jon doesn’t “fly forward with the KB”, Dan decides against following through with the invasion, and Jon will have won a Strategic Victory after losing the Operational Victory, simply by “waving a bunch of Solid Red” on the Tactical Level . SO that’s how I view it. The entire point of waiting is to hope that Jon can’t help but take the bait and move forward into what he HAS to know is a bad deal for him. Taking the bait would require Jon to completely dismiss the LBA threat posed by Oz, he would have to dismiss the great distance his CV’s are from a safe port (vs Allies being like 2 hexes), he would have to not care about being outnumbered in the air, etc. and he would have to dismiss everything in his mind that tells him ‘bad idea’. Is Jon really that stupid to charge into such a meat grinder? Ok…maybe not stupid, but do *you* think his overly aggressive play style overrules everything that the he knows he shouldn’t do at this point? Delaying at this point - if the invasion is a go - only makes invading that much more difficult. Its entire hope is based on Jon being predictably aggressive. I have to believe that Jon knows better --- but I wonder if that matters. So that's really the question for Dan to answer: Will Jon control his emotion to go smash everything in sight - or not? Good luck and have fun. Sorry for the long winded post.
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