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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 5:51:19 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		New Orleans has had an eventful war. She was all but sunk off Exmouth back in March or April. Finally made it to Melbourne for repairs. Then to Bay of Bengal, where she led Ching Lee's TF into battle, taking moderate damage during one sharp scuffle. Then to Sumatra, where she eats a torp at Langsa. She is a good ship.

Somebody previously mentioned that this operation was a continuation of the plan I never got to implement vs. Q-Ball. The forumite that posted that has a long and good memory. The Allies had a massive invasion of Sumatra set for March of '43.

The Allies brought alot to this invasion. By November '42, the Allies can mount some stout operations if that haven't been bled to much. But it's still a bit early in actuality. November 1942 to invade Sumatra with about six or seven divisions is a pretty fair operation.

(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 2431
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 10:29:06 AM   
Reg


Posts: 2787
Joined: 5/26/2000
From: NSW, Australia
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121
I think what will have happened is that there were discussions via PM commenting on the game which gave him information through deduction and general background without ever veering towards anyone intentionally breaching OPSEC. People can deduce a lot from WHAT people ask about and WHEN and at what RATE. A flurry of PMs asking him to post pics of the NORPAC situation since he "hasn't updated that in a while" all coming in within a week of eachother realtime unmatched by any spike in other ignored areas is, to me, a clear sign that my opponent is looking at a NORPAC invasion.

Each individual PMer would be able to say, "I didn't breach OPSEC" ( and they'd be right ) but taken together even the slowest forumite couldn't help but see a clear pattern and draw the appropriate conclusions. My sense is that what we're looking at is the end result of this sort of PMing where individual PMs don't breach OPSEC but taken together they add up to a clear picture.


The principle of "Classification through Aggregation" in action..........

Running a popular AAR certainly does add another layer of Mega-game over the top of an already complex situation. I suppose you can only treat your AAR followers as you would the press with all that this entails.

Talk about real world simulation!!

CR, I think you are carrying this off with aplomb. Well done sir.



_____________________________

Cheers,
Reg.

(One day I will learn to spell - or check before posting....)
Uh oh, Firefox has a spell checker!! What excuse can I use now!!!

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 2432
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 10:32:16 AM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		I agree - a very well thought out operation, with a heck of a lot of force behind it - which is going to make it very difficult for John to perform his usual "smash and run" style of offense.

How are things up in Burma? Are you able to apply additional pressure up there with the available forces? John has got to be "robbing Peter to pay Paul" in his rush to build some kind of coherent defense / offensive strike against you....

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

(in reply to Reg)
Post #: 2433
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 11:19:20 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Overall: Things continue to look very good. Obvious now that the Allies achieved total surprise. Sibolga and Langsa are important - take them and the Allies have a solid base to work from and can get more creative. I think John is concentrating on Sumatra rather than Malaya. Hopefully, all the landings on the Sumatra Island to be followed now by the Malaya Islands will disconcert him.



The master of understatement!

This is a nightmare for anyone on the Japanese side and gorgeous from the Allied side. His unpreparedness is unconscionable in this area. It should be a hive of well thought-out interlocking defenses by this time. All bases on outer Sumatra should have some decent garrison. There should have been deep ocean search and sub patrols picking you up well in advance of landing as well.

On the whole your deception unveiled a poorly conceived defense for such a veteran player. This will be standard policy now for Japanese players in the same way having better defenses in the Kuriles was sparked by GJ's move earlier. While its hard to get everything garrisoned these are places you simply cannot ignore this late.

I like the analogy of the AAR being like the info given to the press. We can't however vote you out if you get too many ships sunk!

Well done Dan!

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2434
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 11:26:33 AM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Overall: Things continue to look very good. Obvious now that the Allies achieved total surprise. Sibolga and Langsa are important - take them and the Allies have a solid base to work from and can get more creative. I think John is concentrating on Sumatra rather than Malaya. Hopefully, all the landings on the Sumatra Island to be followed now by the Malaya Islands will disconcert him.



The master of understatement!

This is a nightmare for anyone on the Japanese side and gorgeous from the Allied side. His unpreparedness is unconscionable in this area. It should be a hive of well thought-out interlocking defenses by this time. All bases on outer Sumatra should have some decent garrison. There should have been deep ocean search and sub patrols picking you up well in advance of landing as well.

On the whole your deception unveiled a poorly conceived defense for such a veteran player. This will be standard policy now for Japanese players in the same way having better defenses in the Kuriles was sparked by GJ's move earlier. While its hard to get everything garrisoned these are places you simply cannot ignore this late.

I like the analogy of the AAR being like the info given to the press. We can't however vote you out if you get too many ships sunk!

Well done Dan!

+1.

It's also a nightmare for anyone betting cash monies on this game going 'long'.

_____________________________


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2435
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 11:30:37 AM   
1275psi

 

Posts: 7979
Joined: 4/17/2005
Status: offline 		way, way back in UV days, Wobbly and myself itroduced the individual AARs. Lots of people said it could never work. But think about it, now we all just accept that no one worthy of these forums would ever peek at their opponents AAR , and now we worry about other people accidently giving away secrets.
really, over the years there has been amazingly few indescetions, few cheating moments here on the forums.

I really think that overall, the members of this forum are (in the main) an amazingly honorable and honest lot

hats of to every one

OH, and great AAR, what a lot of fun


(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 2436
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 11:44:33 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		This operations has been fun and exciting, but for the reader even more fun may lie ahead. John's gathering and moving forward his army. His blood lust is up. And he has to wipe out the enemy lodgement. That sould be a recipe for good theater. Predictions:

Near Term: The Allied offensive continues in the near term, with the biggest emphasis on taking Sibolga, Langsa and Medan. I'll be implementing some kind of operation vs. Malaya, though it's exact size and nature will be determined over the next day or two. Finally, I'll be working hard to tidy up all the places taken thus far in preparation for the coming onslaught.

Medium Term: The KB arrives and should have considerable numerical superiority. Can the Allies stand and fight by using mainly Sabang for land-based air support, or will the enemy force be so powerful that the Allies have to parry and thrust at a distance? For some time, I would think Japan should be able to dictate things at sea. But, importantly, into the medium term I don't think Japan has the power or ability to wage effective and massive war on land - the Allies have too much and the Japanese are too spread out.

Long Term: Over the near and medium term, sharp air and sea battles will take place that will dictate who has long term control over western Sumatra. Subs should play a key roll. The KB will make things tough on the Allies, but the network of good bases (including Colombo and Diego Garcia, means that the Allies aren't fighting "on the dark side of the moon." Replenishment and supply and reinforcements are actually close by. To this point in the game, Ramree Island has been the Guadalcanal of the game. I think this will be Ramree on steroids.



(in reply to 1275psi)
Post #: 2437
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 12:02:59 PM   
pws1225

 

Posts: 1166
Joined: 8/9/2010
From: Tate's Hell, Florida
Status: offline
quote:

This operations has been fun and exciting, but for the reader even more fun may lie ahead.


Now there's an understatement!

(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 1:31:22 PM   
Miller


Posts: 2226
Joined: 9/14/2004
From: Ashington, England.
Status: offline 		Assuming you have all your available CVs in theatre with the back up of LBA the best the KB can do is draw. Which of course is a defeat in real terms. Well played Sir.

(in reply to pws1225)
Post #: 2439
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 1:53:30 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Paul, I'm not at all sure of that. This is the Reluctant Admiral mod. I haven't looked at the lineup since back around 12/41 (six months ago real time), but I know John gets a fair number of extra carriers, including CVLs and CVEs in 1942. (I need to open the game again and check out the roster. [Ya think?])

I have the six fleet carriers, CV Indomitable (schedule for withdrawal in a month or so), CVL Hermes, and CVEs Copahee and Long Island.

John will have seven fleet carriers (the Pearl gang + Hiyo [Junyo was badly damaged a month ago] plus a host of light and escort carriers.

LBA will play a big role. If the Allies can maintain parity or better by using Sabang (and hopefully another couple of bases), okay. But if John's airforce based at Georgetown, Kota Bharu, etc. takes control, it's a different equation.

But subs and combat ships will play a big role, and I think the Allies are in pretty good shape there.

(in reply to Miller)
Post #: 2440
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 1:57:33 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Gentlemen, the KB will approach theater from one of three doors. Which door will it be:

1. Door Number One: The Gulf of Siam? Nah. John's carriers have to be able to maneuver and close with the Allies. He won't chose this route.

2. Door Number Two: The Malacca Straits? Possibly, but the straits are choked with Allied subs (though John may not realize that as he's switched all his ASW patrols over to other missions). It's possible, but not likely. He'll want room to maneuver.

3. Door Number Three: The Indian Ocean? Yes, almost certainly. Plenty of sea room; ability to maneuver and close; ability to chase and maul if he's victorious.

So the Allies will post ships accordingly.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2441
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 2:02:41 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		A cut and past from the Reluctant Admiral site:
The Reluctant Admiral is a Japanese 'what if' scenario based upon a greater contribution by Adm. Yamamoto Isoroku. The premise of the Mod is that Yamamoto exerted a much greater influence first on the Japan Naval Aircraft Industry, then as Deputy Navy Minister, and finally as Navy Minister itself. Yamamoto chooses, at great risk to his life, to forego command of the Combined Fleet and dedicate himself to preparing Japan for a war he didn't want. He adds two new slipways for Fleet construction to facilitate a different, final pre-war expansion of the Kaigun. New and expanded Naval Yards, Heavy Industry, and Armaments are added at tremendous cost for the Japanese economy as the Admiral attempts to prepare Japan for a possibly long war. In so choosing to do this Yamamoto then changes the 4th Circle Building plan replacing the 3rd and 4th Yamato-Class Battleships with three improved Shokaku-Class CVs and a pair of Kawachi-Class fast Battlecruisers, two Tone-Class CAs, an accelerated Agano-Class deployment, and additional destroyers. Quick, reasonably cheap carrier conversions are moved forward seeing all of the pre-war CVs/CVLs deploy by December 7th or at slightly earlier dates in 1942.

The Japan Naval Air Arm is changed so that everything is staked to the Zero Airframe with a specialization of the Zero into a Land-Based Interceptor as well as CV-Based Fighters. Research and production expansion is achieved by streamlining the air industry (cutting several models) while bringing forward second generation aircraft: Judy, Jill, etc… By great effort the IJNAF deploys nearly all new aircraft on December 7th.

RA 4.0 now brings his ‘vision’ to the IJN’s Land Component. He reorganizes the SNLF units into a Brigade-Sized offensive force and—knowing it will be a war of attrition—converts many Naval Guard into enhanced units with Coastal Defense artillery for a stronger defensive unit. Additional small units are added to the IJN’s Troops and support units better reflecting Yamamoto's foresight into base building, defense, and expansion needs.

The foresight of the Admiral paysoff during 1942 and early-1943 as new ships, aircraft, and ground units enter into the Japanese Order-of-Battle, however, the cost is steep. Though expanded and using modern aircraft many Japanese Naval Air units start with their experience lowered to reflect the dilution of the experienced pilots into new units. Supply and fuel reserves start at a much reduced state. The Japanese MUST take the DEI as fast as possible.

In a major change over the previous two versions of Reluctant Admiral, the 3.0 postulates more of Yamamoto’s influence upon the wartime Kaigun. First class destroyers are accelerated and emphasis is shifted to the AA Akizuki-Class at the expense of the more balanced Yugumo’s. Manpower is at a premium within the Fleet so Submarines, Escorts, and ASW forces all see a major retooling reflecting the Japanese quality over quantity belief. Yamamoto chooses the immediately useful projects, including 2nd-class destroyers, fast transports and coastal defense fleet, at the expense of large destroyers and subs offered by the stock, historical choice.

It should be noted that not all the changes are for the Japanese. The Allies see continued major changes in their starting locations, new air units, several ground units, a CLAA conversion for the Omaha-CL, a pair of additional CVLs, and options for nearly 10 CVEs. The added warships reflect a ‘stopgap’ counter to the increased Japanese strength found at war’s start.

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2442
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 2:02:44 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		CR,

As re: Malaysia... Well some of those bases are bound to be unoccupied if he really has been as negligent with his garrisoning as it seems. Take 2 British Catalina squadrons, divide them in 3 then recon 6 bases with them. Whichever bases are empty get an FT TF'ed assault unit or paratroopers the next day.

If he's even been a bit negligent this could give you 2 or 3 bridgeheads on the west coast of Malaysia at almost no cost... If you wait a week before making this move then all of this low-hanging fruit will be lost because yuo've got to figure the idea of using transport planes to fly elements of different combat units into each unoccupied base is gonna occur to him sooner or later, if it hasn't already.


gmoney,
Aye and that's when the true games begin. Have I uncovered the plan hiding behind the deception and that's all there is or is this plan the deception and the deception operation is the real plan... or are both deceptions and there's actually a third, even deeper plan which is what's really going to happen.

E.g. If CR was really sneaky what would happen now is that as John3rd panics in reaction to this invasion the forces off the coast of Oz would turn out to be a real invasion force and would, while he's distracted, move in and take what we were told were their targets.... or this would happen with an invasion somewhere else which was completely off the radar (CENPAC ). I do think that CR is making for Sumatra with awfully little in the way of ground forces and this makes me wonder just where his other ground forces are. I'd be following Sumatra with another operation timed to go in once KB hit the Sumatran region.. I guess we're going to see how sneakily and deeply CR thought about this.

For context, I'm within a week of this game date in my game and I have 3,000AV in Burma - all of which can be freely redeployed - and adding in Regts lost in the Kuriles which Dan still has available the US has about 10 divisions of infantry I can deploy wherever I wish while the Aussies and Kiwis have another 2 divisions worth.

So, all in all I have about 19 divisions with which I can go on the offensive. This operation accounts for, perhaps, 5 with another 7 or 8 tied down in northern Burma. Where's the other 6 to 7 divisions? By my count Dan could mount another operation, of this size, without carrier cover ( so long as he knows where KB is ) anywhere along the Japanese perimeter. When KB hits Sumatra it'll be accompanied by the IJNAF and IJAAF naval strike groups --- giving Dan the perfect opportunity to strike somewhere on the perimeter without his CVs. It is certainly what I would have planned to do and there ARE 6 divisions out there -- I think they're probably resting or garrisoning and not on amphibious TFs but the option was there.

< Message edited by Nemo121 -- 6/25/2013 2:07:04 PM >

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2443
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 2:05:10 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

3. Door Number Three: The Indian Ocean? Yes, almost certainly. Plenty of sea room; ability to maneuver and close; ability to chase and maul if he's victorious.


Yup, and the AO's come toddling after trying to keep up. They will have to go out in the open ocean to support the KB. Maybe he can keep these under LBA but he probably has to protect these at sea. Woe to he that does not

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2444
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 3:19:16 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		Nemo, while I have no doubt your assessment of the land forces available is good, I have no idea if the Allies in late 1942 have the sealift available to carry out a second major operation in a short time. Because the xAPs are not yet APAs, CR would have had to use shallow loading of each ship to ensure rapid unload of the amphib force. That should have used up almost all the xAPs and it will take a while to reassign them across the map. APDs and raiding forces are another matter, and could certainly grab some undefended dots that could then grow into festering sores for John III.

Agree on grabbing the weak or undefended bases in Malaya. Suddenly his plan to reinforce/counterattack in Sumatra is suborned to clearing his rail line in Malaya that keeps Singapore in business. His best LBA bases for assault on Sumatra will not operate long without plenty of supply of avgas and bombs. Even if the units in Malaya are later crushed, the time bought for Sumatra will be worth it.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 2445
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 3:21:34 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121
... This operation accounts for, perhaps, 5 with another 7 or 8 tied down in northern Burma. Where's the other 6 to 7 divisions? ....


The math doesn't work, primarily because of political points.

The Allies have seven-plus western divisions in Sumatra - 18th UK, 27, 32 and 37 USA, 1st Marine, three Marine regiments, and four or five Army RCT.

There are four-plus western devisions in Burma - 2nd UK, 41st USA, two Australian.

There is one restricted US division at Los Angeles awaiting PP for purchasing (but priority is fairly low in comparison to needs and opportunities in Sumatra and Burma).

The Americans have the equivalent of 1.5 divisions in Oz (a mix of Marine and army) There is one RCT in New Zealand. There are lots of restricted Oz divisions, plus perhaps one divisions that isn't restricted.

I can buy out a sizeable army in Oz and move, but what's the higher priority - moving somewhere in CenPac or SoPac or using the PP to buy another Indian divisions to reinforce Sumatra or Burma? Probably the latter, though I haven't "pulled the trigger" yet.

Shipping was also entirely allocated to this mission. I could cobble together a modest amphibious Tf in Oz and a pretty decent one on West Coast. But the Oz force could carry at best one division. (Some of the Sumatra ships will be going back to Oz.

I do have future plans, but nothing simultaneous with this operation. The number of men, ships, fuel and such required to lift 7+ divisions (and many tank, enginneer, HQ, arty, AA units too) demands a huge % of the sea-lift power in November 1942.

Some players would have been able to manage something else - even something small in SoPac right now might be quite beneficial - but there's no way the Allies could at this point mount a two-division invasion. Not enough ships. Not enough PP.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/25/2013 3:22:36 PM >

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 2446
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 3:53:28 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		11/13/42

The Allies are moving forward; some promising things; some speed bumps; some opportunites; some risk; some damage; much fun.

Sumatra on the Ground: The Allies had hoped to take Langsa and Sibolga quick and easy, through an assist by bombardment TFs and carrier air, but neither worked. Both garrisons, though modest to weak, held. However, there's little doubt both of these key bases are ripe for the pucking. I think Sibolga (the second most important base in this operation) could fall in a few days. Langsa should fall as soon as 27th Div. can board ships and make the short journey (probably three or four days). More troubling is Padang. One of my RCT - properly in Combat Mode and loaded in an amphibiuos TF - is coming ashore in strat mode (the 2nd time for this bug) and is therefore unable to fight for days. I don't like the looks of things here and may abort the landings and move these troops (perhaps 100 AV still aboard ship) to Sibolga. 32nd Div. will begin coming ashore at Sabang tomorrow. While today wasn't great, I do feel encouraged that Sibolga and Langsa cannot stand against the Allies, and if Langsa falls, the Allies can then move on Medan in force.

Malaya on the Ground: Fast transport will carry Marine raiders (diverted from Sibolga a few days ago) to what seems to be unoccpied Phuket. Amphibous ships carrying about 20 AV of 18th UK Div. and a full US Army tank unit will land at Alor Star tomorrow. This won't work if there is a garrison there. LRCAP to be provided by a dozen P-39G from Sabang. A bunch of APDs reach Sabang tomorrow, so the Allies will have more capacity to probe and raid. Paratroops are still a couple of days out. I'm working the Malaya angle.

Sumatra in the Air: Nice progress on repairing Sabang airfield (which is at 3.49%). USN carrier air flew ground missions vs. Sibolga, but didn't do all that much damage. Japanese air - especially from bases on the southern tip, clobbered a handful of naked transports fiddling around Enganno and Padang. Also, Vals from Victoria Point (where SigInt says John is bringing an Air Flotilla unit) hit a few naked ships around Phuket.

Sumatra at Sea: A few turns back, John unleashed a bunch of SSX (I bet he had been gathering these to hit the fleet at Akyab). Today, they sank an AR and damaged an AE and something else. Another sub sank DD Buchanan. (The Allies haven't lost anything larger than these in this operation thus far.) The fast USN BBs bombarded both Langsa and Sibolga without impressive results. Lots of the Bay of Bengal fleet will be reaching Sabang in the next two days. Carrier TF sorties range from 71% to 82%. So, that enters into things now - can I afford to fly ground missions? Do I consider withdrawing carriers to Colombo before the KB shows up, relying on LBA and escort carriers to lend a hand with ground operations.

Indications: A picket xAK south of Java retired from air threat. Could be LBA from an island, but more likely enemy carriers. If so, the KB could be between Timor and Java now. If they don't have to refuel, perhaps three days from the Padang vicinity? This might be a good reason to indeed scrub Padang, begin consolidating the IO ships around Sibolga and Sabang, and decide whether the carriers can stay or whether now is the time to get them to Colombo to refuel. Any thoughts, gents?

Bay of Bengal: Mutsu is still a Port Blair. I want her if and when it makes sense to get her.

Burma: It does appear that John is making a general withdrawal in Burma. Allied troops in contested hexes will make probing attacks; those in unoccupied hexes (including some well-dug-in Indian brigades in the jungle) to move forward.



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/25/2013 3:56:31 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2447
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 3:59:04 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		P.S. Sabang now has 430 mines and two ACM. A big and loaded DM TF is awaiting - I'd like to mine some other ports, but first I need to take them (I don't want to mine enemy ports that I'm invading or raiding).

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2448
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 3:59:23 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline 		Phuket is actually Thailand (Siam) but still a great base. Nice beaches too.

Fantastic to keep something this big under wraps!

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2449
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 4:34:26 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I'm open to comment and counsel, but my "working draft" for the major decisions:

1. Divert the Padang TFs to Sibolga ("strat mode" bug, operation miring down, transports getting hit by enemy LBA, KB could arrive in just a couple of days, meaning chances of success remote.

2. Keep the carriers on station despite roughly 70% to 80% sortie levels. Replenishing run to Colombo would take eight days. Better to keep the carriers in theater to handle the pending major move on Langsa and possible major moves on Malaya.

3. Keep the fast BBs on station. Main armament ammo still looks good for each of the three ships. Choose targets carefully going forward, but keep the ships here for basically the same reason as the carriers.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 2450
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 4:43:48 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		Wow,its a bit weird you don't have the shipping. I am at the same gametime as you and a lot more xAPs etc were lost before I took over than you've lost and yet I recently shifted 150 unused transports from India and Oz to CONUSA. That has still left me with about 200 transports scattered between Oz and India for my forces there... and that's after more severe losses than you've taken.

I obviously have different tolerances for logistics shipping or amphibious loading - for something like this I'd be quite happy to put a US Tank Bn ( 6,000 or so points of loading on an xAK in a single xAK. If you want to combat load it across two that halves your sealift right there. It must be something along those lines.)

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2451
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 4:45:24 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The final tough decision:

1600 PP in the bank. A big (and decent) Indian div. at Chittagong (with plenty of transports there) costs 1550. Worthwhile to buy and move to Sumatra? Decision must be made fast in hopes of getting there ahead of KB (even now it's unlikely). Better to commit the division to Burma (I don't think so). Better not to spend PP right now, instead building the bank for eventual use in the Pacific (okay, that's legit, but isn't Sumatra an "everything now, now, now!" priority?). I'm leaning towards making the buy, but I'm interested in opinions.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2452
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 4:50:40 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Right now, I might have 50 transports of all kinds in Oz, most of them at Townsville as part of the feint. At USA I have a decent number - probably 75 or more. Pearl Harbor has perhaps 15 to 20. India and Aden have 30 to 50. Capetown has alot of xAK, but no xAP. Hundreds of ships are involved in the sea lift to Sumatra - some still coming in, some now retiring towards Colombo, some on hold as I prepare to mount new moves on Sibolga, Langsa and Malaya/Thailand.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/25/2013 4:51:18 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2453
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 4:50:55 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

2. Keep the carriers on station despite roughly 70% to 80% sortie levels. Replenishing run to Colombo would take eight days. Better to keep the carriers in theater to handle the pending major move on Langsa and possible major moves on Malaya.




Does this mean 70-80% of sorties used or remaining? Also, there is the question of the F4F complements (airframes and fatigue). Seems like you need to get done as much as you can BEFORE the KB gets there. Stop all the ground attacks by the carrier bombers and grab what you can, then go back and replenish.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2454
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 4:51:41 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		Dang. That AE & AR must hurt. Guess you have a couple of others but nothing in the zip code

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2455
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 4:52:32 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The sortie levels are still between 70% and 82%. Aircraft airworthiness levels are good, plus there's a snazzy 36-plane F4F unit at Ramree Island ready to fly in as reinforcements. I LOVE Ramree Island!

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 2456
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 4:54:06 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
Dang. That AE & AR must hurt. Guess you have a couple of others but nothing in the zip code


Nah! I have three undamaged AE, one AKE and an AR at Sabang (joining the damaged AE and sunk AR).

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 2457
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 4:54:26 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline 		I'm confused. Did the good guys take Sabang yet? No airfields yet in Arried control on Sumatra?

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 2458
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 4:56:25 PM   
Galahad78

 

Posts: 386
Joined: 9/28/2009
Status: offline
quote:


gmoney,
Aye and that's when the true games begin. Have I uncovered the plan hiding behind the deception and that's all there is or is this plan the deception and the deception operation is the real plan... or are both deceptions and there's actually a third, even deeper plan which is what's really going to happen.


Frank Herbert summarized it perfectly in Dune: "Feints inside feints inside feints..." (or something in that lines; read it many years ago in Spanish )

It's been a real delight to read these last 5 pages and see the unveiling of the plan CR, good job!

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 2459
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2013 5:04:12 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Yeah, Sabang fell on D+1, a very exciting moment in Allied war annals. Level three field currently has 96 fighters and an lightning recon squadron. PBYs are based in the Nicobars and Nias (an island south - true - of Sumatra). But I certainly am in big need of Sibolga and Langsa.

P.S. An Air HQ will begin landing tomorrow, so the Allies will have land-based torp capability also.

(in reply to Galahad78)
Post #: 2460
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