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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/26/2013 9:54:45 PM   
Chickenboy


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By the way-the purpose of this post today is to ask about the MOST important aspect of this AAR. How are you doing with page count vs. GreyJoy?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 12:36:32 AM   
Schlemiel

 

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Canoe needs to paddle up more posts. That is the status update.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 12:42:29 AM   
Cpt Sherwood

 

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Well, we just have to spam his thread.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 12:44:03 AM   
pws1225

 

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A Southern Gentleman can never hope to compete with a Roughish Italian Lad in popular appeal. But a close second would be respectable.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 12:56:58 AM   
Schlemiel

 

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Pictures of random hairy women would lure in the Italian horde though, apparently.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 1:40:03 AM   
BBfanboy


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The Bengal Triangle - graveyard of ships and aircraft. Seems apropos!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 3:27:34 AM   
Cribtop


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Two comments:

1) This is going to be great fun to watch.

2) IMHO you have an 85% or better chance of winning the upcoming CV battle in a strategic sense. Winning defined to me as a draw or better with the SLoC still open or openish.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 12:35:25 PM   
Canoerebel


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I don't have a good record in early-war carrier battles. I fact, I don't think I"ve ever come out on top of one (except the rare instances where the Allies had far more carriers). So a face-to-face, full-lineup vs. full-lineup clash will worry me to no end. I think I"d rate the chances of Allied success at 25%. I think there's a 75% chance that the carrers react away from land-based LRCAP and do other frightful things that make me sick to my stomach. I'm not sure what's going to happen when and where, but I think it will be soon and I think all the while I'll be fighting against my natural 1942 inclination to "Run! Run for the hills!"

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 1:16:07 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Two comments:

1) This is going to be great fun to watch.

2) IMHO you have an 85% or better chance of winning the upcoming CV battle in a strategic sense. Winning defined to me as a draw or better with the SLoC still open or openish.


In this case a draw may not be a win for the Allies. A rare position, but one reason this is a huge risk even with complete surprise. Japan has CV superiority in numbers until the Essex's come along, and arguably quality until the Hellcats arrive. Japan can outproduce the Allies in LBA with good comparative quality until the P-47 comes along to close down the party. We're even still pre-Corsair, so I don't think the P-38 will be able to gain superiority with it's few replacements against the numerous Tojos.

If John renders the Allies unable to supply the troops and LBA on Sumatra/Malaya he gains the upper hand. It is a long road until more CVs come along. Really it would be to Japan's benefit if there happened to be an incredibly bloody battle quite soon sinking the majority of each side's fleet. Sure, 43 would be ugly, but the Allies might have by that time been pushed off Sumatra with great losses.

That's a very small likelihood, but it is a scenario I'd be particularly careful about as the Allies. Start hitting oil soon as well, as this will give him something else to have to defend. A little night bombing? Japan has no answer to this until much later as I've found out.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 1:31:49 PM   
Canoerebel


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House Rule prevents strat bombing until 1944.

Obvert, think about the rationale behind your proposal. As I read it, you'd in essence be arguing: (1) the Allies can't risk a carrier fight because if they lose the KB will control the sea lanes; so (2) the Allies should let the KB alone, in which case the KB will control the sea lanes.

Don't both of those options equate to no supply going to Sumatra?

No matter what, though, John is in a pickle IMO (Hey! I also realize he can put a world or hurting on me, but I won't address that at the moment). To blockade Sumatra he has to use his full fleet indefinitely, leaving the rest of the map vacant. Even then, he has to to deal with the threat posed by the Allied fleet and the variety of ways to get supply to Sumatra (which, at the moment, is flush with supply). Sabang isn't far from Ceylon.

Remember when the Allies invaded the Gilberts on June 4? It took six weeks for John to evict the invaders even though his carriers were unopposed and the Allied garrisons were small and out of supply. How much more difficult (and time consuming) will the task be in this case?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 1:51:01 PM   
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

House Rule prevents strat bombing until 1944.



It might be worthwhile to hit the port and damage the docks, or even tankers if you are lucky. That will slow the flow of oil out. Not exactly as effective as hitting the oil itself, or the manpower, but will still force him to dedicate some resources to defense of the oil.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 1:57:10 PM   
Canoerebel


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Given the chance, I'll do that. But it will be weeks or months before that's a possibility. The Allies have to build the airfield (any airfield within range) and reach the point where I can afford to devote some of the capacity to bombers. If I comprehend the storm that's about to be unleashed, the day for any kind of systematic bombing campaign of distant strategic targets is a long, long, long way off.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 1:58:13 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

House Rule prevents strat bombing until 1944.

Obvert, think about the rationale behind your proposal. As I read it, you'd in essence be arguing: (1) the Allies can't risk a carrier fight because if they lose the KB will control the sea lanes; so (2) the Allies should let the KB alone, in which case the KB will control the sea lanes.

Don't both of those options equate to no supply going to Sumatra?

No matter what, though, John is in a pickle IMO (Hey! I also realize he can put a world or hurting on me, but I won't address that at the moment). To blockade Sumatra he has to use his full fleet indefinitely, leaving the rest of the map vacant. Even then, he has to to deal with the threat posed by the Allied fleet and the variety of ways to get supply to Sumatra (which, at the moment, is flush with supply). Sabang isn't far from Ceylon.

Remember when the Allies invaded the Gilberts on June 4? It took six weeks for John to evict the invaders even though his carriers were unopposed and the Allied garrisons were small and out of supply. How much more difficult (and time consuming) will the task be in this case?


Not at all. My rationale is simply that this is risky. Not that you should avoid combat. Avoiding and being careful are different things. The common viewpoint is that it is ALWAYS advantageous to the Allies to trade CVs. I'm simply saying that this is not the case here, and that it's very early to think you can control the seas and skies with the available ships and airframe replacements.

Someone has to jump off the bandwagon and try to assess the difficulties in what you're doing rather than just getting out the pompoms. I'm sure you've done quite a bit of that, but it's hard to keep perspective when everyone else is bowing at your feet, yes? I think you need that more than the clap hands icons right now.

I'm sure this has happened before in some AE or WITP game. Maybe someone else has a more experienced view to provide context of the challenges you'll face.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 2:17:26 PM   
Canoerebel


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:) I didn't realize everybody was bowing at my feet! Are they really? There have been some "congratulations," but mainly I think the comments are running to "have you thought of this" and "what do you think about that" kind of things (which is as it should be).

Rest assured that I'm not looking for a stalemated carrier battle. I don't like losing flattops! I lost a bunch to John in our WitP match six years ago (Arg, the cries of "Banzai" still trouble my thoughts) and nearly an entire fleet in a game vs. Miller. Losing carriers is bad mojo! (For those who are unconvinced, I refer you to crsutton, who has from time to time expressed strong feelings about the Allies losing carriers early.)

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 2:49:57 PM   
Schlemiel

 

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I don't think either player relishes the thought of sudden sumatra mobile air defense force and line of communication loss syndrome (ssmadflocls).

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 3:38:14 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

:) I didn't realize everybody was bowing at my feet! Are they really? There have been some "congratulations," but mainly I think the comments are running to "have you thought of this" and "what do you think about that" kind of things (which is as it should be).

Rest assured that I'm not looking for a stalemated carrier battle. I don't like losing flattops! I lost a bunch to John in our WitP match six years ago (Arg, the cries of "Banzai" still trouble my thoughts) and nearly an entire fleet in a game vs. Miller. Losing carriers is bad mojo! (For those who are unconvinced, I refer you to crsutton, who has from time to time expressed strong feelings about the Allies losing carriers early.)


Well, it's not all comments, but the 'war-winning move' type of message has predominated. I'm not saying I wasn't giving kudos and using the bowing icon as you revealed the move (I was).

What prompted my thoughts was actually some of my own research into the Allied airframe OOB looking not only at replacement rates but including those arriving in groups. Although there are a significant amount, most are poor quality planes that function best in a defensive role in rear areas rather than on the front lines and being relied upon for offensive missions.

All he'd need would be a good CAP trap set that your CV air fell into, or a CV battle that sent a lot of CVs back to be repaired, and you'd be looking at serious deficiency in keeping your bases covered with P-40s, P-39s and Hurri IIc. You'll have a few P-38s of course, but those are dear, and not to be used in defense against multiple Tojo sweeps I'd guess. The numbers don't pick up for a while.



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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 4:48:20 PM   
Canoerebel


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11/15/42 - Operaton Des Wallace, D+5

Forces begin to converge, the Allies make some progress and encounter some frustration, and the stakes continue to rise.

Sumatra at Sea: A three-DD TF tangles with BBs Ise and Nagato at Singapore. No damage to either side. Both IJ ships are showing "some smoke." Indications that the enemy flett might be a bit tuckered. Neither Allied bombardment force goes in, neither do the bigger combat TFs targeting Victoria Point, nor do the minelayers. I think that's going to change tonight. But RN DD Inconstant, on patrol at VP after departing Akyab, sank several xAK and then damaged a DD. Allied carrier strike aricraft sank another DD or two, but largely the mission was ineffective. I think I'm going to stand down the fast BBs and send them back to Sabang to refuel. There's much more enemy air active now (BB Washington took two scratch-hits from Kate-dropped bombs and SigInt indicated day sago that John was transferring an Air Flotilla HQ to that base). I also think I'll move the carriers a bit further away from John's best bases (VP and Port Blair). I'll leave it to the cruisers and destroyers to molest VP (tonight, hopefully). No sign of enemy carriers.

Sumatra in the Air: Scattered strikes by Vals and Kates pick off a few naked xAK and the like. Helens from Victoria Point hit Allied troops at several of the Malaya targets, doing no damage (but a further indication that the air war is rapidly heating up). Engineers fixed all the structural damage at Sabang last turn, and today the airfield went from 3.47 to 3.50. I think it'll increase much more rapidly from here on as the Allies have alot of engineers.

Sumatra on the Ground: The crititical shock attack at Sibolga comes off at just shy of 1:1, doesn't touch 4 forts, but does much higher damage to the Japanese. The Jungle/Rough terrian plus the forts is making this hard, but the Japanese are weaking (and I'm hoping John is more concered about other bases for reinforcement). Both Allied attacks on the Malaya islands (Phuket and the next one south) succeed. The deliberate attack at Alor Star is a 1:2. The Japanese take much higher casualties, so there's a chance here. 37th Div. will be ready to combat load tomorrow to invade Langsa, while 1st Marines and two tank units are coming down the coastal road. I have 27th Div. in reserve. I can use it, though, because the final division will arrive in just a few days, providing security for Sabang. So, where does 27th Div. go? Either to Alor Star or to Langsa/Medan. Not sure yet. An Indian brigade begins landing at Alor Star tomorrow.

Tomorrow: Major increase in IJ air activity plus proximity of Nagato and Ise mean John's going to spring forward to fight soon. After five days, the Allies have probably just about depleted the "shock and awe" factor, though the surface combat raids on VP, various fast transports missions, plus the use of paratroops beginning in just a few days, will keep John a bit off balance. I hope and suspect his main focus is Alor Star and other vulnerable Malaya bases until he's got his LOC secure.

Burma: Movement dots continue to indicate large rearward movement by Japanese forces. Allied 1EB and 2EB hammer several divisions in open terrain. The Allies are on the march here, thought it's not yet clear how far John intends to retire and how much he intends to leave behind to fight.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 5:00:23 PM   
JocMeister

 

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A bit curious on your landings. Are you landing you forces almost unprepped in general? I´m thinking of all these "on the fly" invasion? At least it sounds like they are "on the fly"?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 5:07:01 PM   
Canoerebel


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Yes, the "only the fly" landings have no prep.

37th Div., though is about 45% prepped for Langsa.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 5:10:28 PM   
JocMeister

 

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Never dared to try such a landing! Tried once with a 50ish prepped ID. Had about 60-65% disablements! What do your units look like after a totally unprepared landing?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 5:14:07 PM   
Canoerebel


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They have some disruption and some disablements, but generally recover pretty quickly.

It's bad news to go against prepared defenses without solid prep and everything else in order. But when the objective is to surprise and overwhelm an unprepared enemy, stealing some bases, you just do it. I took Sabang with about 55% prep, but very other base thus far has been with 20% or less prep.

One of the leading proponents of moving fast and in overhwleming force - prep be danged! - is Nemo. I'm sure many experienced players have that the same intuitive grasp that sometimes circumstances warrant foregoing prep.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/27/2013 5:15:28 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 5:18:15 PM   
Canoerebel


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If you wonder why prep is so low, remember that all the troops (except 18th UK Div.) came from Hawaii, where they were prepping for the Aluetians. So, they strat loaded for the long journey to Australia with prep changed to the various New Guinea targets. During transport aboard ship (and in off-map boxes), troops do not gain prep points, so when they left Hawaii prepped 5% or 15% for New Guinea targets, they arrived in Oz at the same levels. Then, I switched them to Sumatra targets, so prep dropped to 0% and gained just a little bit before the troops were again loaded for the long journey to Sumatra, during which they didn't gain any prep points.


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 5:22:05 PM   
Chickenboy


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It's a tradeoff. Speed and flexibility, audacity and brute force against efficacy, soundness and sustainability. No prep vs. full prep. Sure, you can throw unprepared units at targets. When you find some 'soft' ones, you may very well succeed in capturing your initial objective.

However, guess wrong and find a dug-in entrenched opponent that is unimpressed by your initial attack and things could go pear-shaped. Disruption alone can make a unit combat ineffective for months afterwards. Get on the wrong side of the AV curve, and the tables may be turned and the disrupted attacker may be fighting for their lives.

It's a balance. I think CR has done a good job of realizing the balance necessary here.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 5:54:36 PM   
Canoerebel


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A few decisions to make now, rendered tough because I expect the enemy to show up in force any day now.

1. Do I take a chance on mounting an amphibious invasion against Langsa (loading would begin tomorrow, D-Day probably in three days using AP and AK)? Or do I march the division down the road? I'm leaning towards the latter only because it's much less risky at this point. It will also reduce the disruption factor of the landing. So I beginning to think this isn't a hard decision. (That will mean 37th Div., 1st Marines, and two tank regiments will be approaching Langsa from the landward side).

2. What do I do with 27th Div., which will be free to move in a day or two (once I'm sure the final division will make it to act as the garrison of my key base). 27th is prepping for Medan. It probably makes sense to keep her on Sumatra, because the battle for Medan will be tough. In fact, so much time is passing that I need to think it through.

3. That will give the Allies a fair bit of 18th UK Div., an Indian brigade, and a tank regiment at Alor Star, plus whatever targets of opportunity are present when the paratroops arrive in two days.

4. Where do I position the carrier? I've made that decision, but I'll keep it close to my vest for now.

5. What about the four slow USN BBs? They've replenished at Colombo. I think I send them back to Sabang, but I haven't fully decided yet (in part because I halfway expect the KB to arrive before they can make it).

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 6:11:04 PM   
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I'd land on Langsa while I still have the element of surprise. He can,and probably has moved planes into the area, but combat units are still not in place in force. Surprised the air attacks have no increased, unless he is planning for a big show. As for the old BB? I move them back to Sabang. Looks like there are Japanese BB's in the area and they they may make a run up he straits at you. Perhaps they will be helpful escorting troop and supply ships . I don't think you will need them much until the first KB visit is resolved but big loaded guns are nice to have on call. I still think you have a few days before the KB arrives. I think he is coming with everything so he wants the CVL's and the CVE's too. You have air search in place so you should get a few days warning at least.

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 6/27/2013 6:40:40 PM >


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 6:33:36 PM   
Canoerebel


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Yes, air patrols and pickets are in place.

The slow BBs are moving back to Sabang.

I'm not sure about moving amphibous on Langsa. KB and LBA are two concerns, but the greatest danger now might come from combat TFs moving up from Singers. I think that's almost a sure thing by the time I can get amphibs loaded.

Sabang can hold many more squadrons than a level three field ordinarily can thanks to the Air HQ bonus. Currently, the field has 10 squadrons including, among others, 115 fighters.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 6:39:06 PM   
AcePylut


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What do you have to lose in the Langsa Op, vs what you can gain?

Is the percentage chance of failure worth risking the assets being used?

What do you gain, operationally, strategically, if you succeed? What do you lose, operationally, strategically, if you fail?


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 9:12:00 PM   
Cribtop


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Concerning Obvert's comments earlier, I see his point that IJN naval superiority after an exchange battle cuts the SLoC, but if the exchange is deep enough, KB is out of the war. I might trade the success of Sumatra for the destruction of KB and the collapse of Burma at this early stage of the conflict.

In addition, I think Dan can make this at worst a "winning exchange." KB has to cut the SLoC and destroy the Allied CVs, they can't just blockade indefinitely. Therefore, Dan can hang his CVs in an advantageous position where Allied LBA's impact is maximized and Japanese LBA is minimized. A standoff won't work for John as he eventually runs low on fuel and has to retire. Under those circumstances, I'd wager Dan gives better than he gets. Then John has the unenviable choice of trying round two under the same operational and strategic constraints, likely losing most of the rest of his carriers, or concedes control of the local seas and thus loses the war. Either way, Dan wins in the end, IMHO.

Dan, getting the Nicobars captured and up for LBA air ops would help with this a bit, IMHO.

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 6/27/2013 9:13:34 PM >


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 9:25:43 PM   
Canoerebel


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John never took the Nicobars. PBYs are operating out of two of the bases (supply was moved there beginning a week or two prior to D-Day, then the base force support a day or two before). There are also PBYs operating out of the islands of Sumatra's west coast, Sabang and Diego Garcia. So patrol coverage should be pretty good.

I'm not sure how the battle is going to come together or turn out, yet, but in all likelihood I'll gather all my fighting ships at and near Sabang, where mines, subs, PT boats (if they make it in time) and the airfield will help. There's a chance Sabang will go to level four before the battle.


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 9:26:07 PM   
Olorin


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

In addition, Therefore, Dan can hang his CVs in an advantageous position where Allied LBA's impact is maximized and Japanese LBA is minimized.


Ah, but John could (and should imho) do exactly the same!. There is no reason to seek a carrier exchange in neutral waters (in the triangle outlined by Canoerebel). SLOCs can be cut at least partially by keeping KB near Japanese LBA, above the Malacca straight and in the Andaman Sea, protecting Japanese airfields from getting bombarded and allowing the IJN to bombard Allied airfields, which are still undeveloped anyway. In this case, if Dan wanted a carrier battle, he could only get one under unfavorable circumstances (KB+LBA).

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