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Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/25/2013 6:30:29 PM

Numdydar

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Sorry to keep spamming the board with my posts, but just keep thing of questions I would like answers to

Especially since I have never played the board game at all.

In other games it seems like Germany has enough units to start the invasion of the low countries without needing to wait for new production. So my questions are:

1) Is it a good idea to use the O-chit in the second turn after Poland falls against Low Countries/France even if the weather is poor?

2) If you are going to wait for France, is going after Yugoslovia an option?

3) If neither of these are viable, is the best action to just do nothing like historical? Since Germany is on a tight schedule, it seems like a huge waste to just letting time pass.

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RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/25/2013 7:06:22 PM

Ur_Vile_WEdge

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Numdydar

Sorry to keep spamming the board with my posts, but just keep thing of questions I would like answers to Especially since I have never played the board game at all.

In other games it seems like Germany has enough units to start the invasion of the low countries without needing to wait for new production. So my questions are:

1) Is it a good idea to use the O-chit in the second turn after Poland falls against Low Countries/France even if the weather is poor?

2) If you are going to wait for France, is going after Yugoslovia an option?

3) If neither of these are viable, is the best action to just do nothing like historical? Since Germany is on a tight schedule, it seems like a huge waste to just letting time pass.

1) Generally, no. Bad weather correlates with short turns, and you really want to hit and keep pushing in a long, sunny turn if you're willing to spend the O-Chit. Plus, even with doubled strength units, it's hard to really crack France when you get the shift from the weather in addition to half strength planes in Rain or Snow, let alone no planes in Storm or Blizzard.

Maybe if there's a real weak points and you can hit Paris, say if you went for France on the first turn but couldn't quite crack them, but I would not be spending O-Chits in the winter as a general rule.

2) If you're going after Yugoslavia, I would be trying to screen the west, and do it simultaneously with Poland. The main idea is to align Rumania on the first turn, hit the Yugoslavs from two directions, but most importantly, prevent the demand of Bessarabia. You do that, and when it's time to wheel east to take on the Soviets, you can have German units all the way up on the border of Odessa, ready to tear out his guts.

3)Patience my child. Winter means no air, so it's a great time to send out your submarines and whatever surface ships you have to commit some constructive atrocities against British shipping.

The weather's also generally better in the Med, so if Italy joined the war on the first turn, you could do something to try to secure North Africa, Malta, or Cyprus.

But no, that first winter, there's not really a whole lot to do besides pull your army back from the East if you went the "historical" route. Don't worry, you're not that overwhelmed. The "Historical" Germany strategy of Poland on the first turn, wait the first winter, the Low Countries and France in 40, Russia in 41, can and does win games if you execute it well.

(in reply to Numdydar)

Post #: 2

RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/25/2013 7:41:50 PM

composer99

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Let me see if I can help answer these. Because of the contingent nature of the game, the answers are of necessity not "hard and fast".

quote:

In other games it seems like Germany has enough units to start the invasion of the low countries without needing to wait for new production. So my questions are:

Before answering, let me say that in WiF while Germany can benefit from going after France/Low Countries early, it also benefits from building up its airforce over the winter. Because CW and France do not begin the game cooperating, their units cannot stack or assist each other in combat. As such Germany can obtain air supremacy against one of them in Flanders in the summer of 1940. This can make a big difference when cracking open the French line. Indeed it is probably required because if the French are able to build up in 1939-1940 their line isn't all that easy to crack.

quote:

1) Is it a good idea to use the O-chit in the second turn after Poland falls against Low Countries/France even if the weather is poor?

Hard to say - it would depend on the circumstances. There are many drawbacks to attacking in poor weather: odds level shifts (1d10) or die roll penalties (2d10), reduced effectiveness (or even nullification) of air power, whether for ground strikes or ground support, poor movement rates (in rain, storm, or blizzard) which means no breakthroughs without becoming disorganized, and perhaps most importantly, even though you can call blitz combats while fighting in the appropriate terrain you do not get blitz bonuses.

O-chits are expensive, and while it is a mistake to fail to use them when appropriate (and you can use an o-chit, or even both, to crack France on time - often the Germans don't need to use an o-chit to send the Red Army scurrying for the Caucasus), it is also a mistake to use them inappropriately.

So the question is: if you use your o-chit in Nov/Dec 1939 (bad weather or no), what are you getting out of it, and is it worth it?

The answer is, yes, if what you are getting out of it is either a big hole in the French line that they can't fill, or if it topples the first domino that leads to France's fall.

Just make sure, whatever you do, that if you go against France early you get across the Dyle river straight away. Do not ever ever EVER let the Allies set up along the whole Dyle line.

quote:

2) If you are going to wait for France, is going after Yugoslovia an option?

Absolutely. Indeed, you can start the Yugoslav campaign in September/October while wrapping up Poland, and unless you get terrible weather and/or you lose focus it can be wrapped up in time for the summer. The Yugoslav army is weak, and if you are willing to align Hungary early you can force it to huddle in the cities (Zagreb & Belgrade). A 3-hex attack with even your 2nd-rate units will be a 4:1 or even 5:1 assault, nothing to sneeze at, and almost trivial if you've disorganized the Yugoslavs and/or have HQ/artillery/division/air support.

quote:

3) If neither of these are viable, is the best action to just do nothing like historical? Since Germany is on a tight schedule, it seems like a huge waste to just letting time pass.

Spinning your wheels in the summer of 1940 is far, far worse than spinning your wheels in the 1939-1940 winter/spring, and taking rash action in the winter can leave you doing just that by summertime. I speak from bitter personal experience.

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RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/25/2013 8:21:28 PM

Centuur

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Composer is right. The first turn is one of the most important one in the game. As long as weather holds in S/O I try to gobble up Denmark, the Netherlands and Belgium (provided I can kill the Belgians, of course). Only if you are very, very lucky, weather can hold even long enough to get a shot at French units (provided Germany has still got some organised units around, which is probably difficult at that stage and would mean that the Germans are not only lucky with the weather, but also with the combat die rolls).

If bad weather comes, it's time for the phoney war. Sure, if one of the above minors isn't captured yet and if the odd impulse comes around with good weather: attack it and put it into the Reich. But otherwise, sit on your offensive, build up the airforce, sail the sub's out and wait until spring comes around.
A very wise thing it is to try to avoid loss of units by the Germans in the first turns of the game...

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RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 12:08:57 AM

mjjcpa

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Some of my best openings as the germans have involved the use of an 0chit on impulse 3 of turn 1 if memory serves.

I've used it in a ground to double factors and take Warsaw much quicker and painlessly.

I've also used a super combined to get the Kriegsmarine and Doenitz' subs out amongst unguarded convoys if the British player doesn't have them well protected.

This is the exception to the rule though I think.

(in reply to Centuur)

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RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 12:20:38 AM

CrusssDaddy

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The Sept./Oct '39 turn should end with Germany having conquered Poland, Denmark and the Netherlands -- certainly the first two and if not Holland then only because the weather was uncooperative. Belgium requires some finesse. If the Netherlands is wrapped up in Sept./Oct. and you enjoy a long Nov./Dec. that sees your MECH-ARM-MOT units returned west from Poland AND the weather cooperates with snow largely instead of rain or storm, you can time a late turn attack on Belgium such that you have a very decent chance of winning a coveted "double move" i.e. you get the last turn of Nov./Dec. and the first turn of Jan./Feb. This is a worthy gamble because the Axis holds an initiative advantage as the game begins. Deploying the O-chit on the second move can provoke a rout and an early France capitulation.

Early Yugoslavia makes little sense to me, it's real value lies as a defensive holding and it's not needed until much later in the game. Belgrade makes a nice rest stop in early '41 for your units on their way to Rumania.

[edited for clarity]

< Message edited by CrusssDaddy -- 9/26/2013 12:26:38 AM >

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RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 12:24:56 AM

CrusssDaddy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: mjjcpa

Some of my best openings as the germans have involved the use of an 0chit on impulse 3 of turn 1 if memory serves.

I've used it in a ground to double factors and take Warsaw much quicker and painlessly.

I've also used a super combined to get the Kriegsmarine and Doenitz' subs out amongst unguarded convoys if the British player doesn't have them well protected.

This is the exception to the rule though I think.

I would never use it in Poland, that seems a criminal waste. Germany begins with 3 SUB I think? If you're lucky in your draw maybe one of them can reach the 3-box in the North Atlantic or Bay of Biscay, or 2 can make it to the 2-box? That doesn't seem like a good gamble at all -- a single bad search roll and you just burned a turn of production with nothing to show for it.

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RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 1:50:27 AM

Ur_Vile_WEdge

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The point of an Early Yugoslavia is that if you do it on your second impulse, you pre-empt the demand for Bessarabia. (Since the U.S.S.R can't declare war on anyone in the first allied impulse). It's a smidge of a risk, but then you DoW Yugoslavia and align Rumania, and maybe Hungary on your next impulse.

Then, the Soviets are locked giving you the extra resource, and more importantly, you can begin your eventual 41 attack with a bunch of ARM and LND3 in Chinesau.

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RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 2:08:25 AM

CrusssDaddy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ur_Vile_WEdge

The point of an Early Yugoslavia is that if you do it on your second impulse, you pre-empt the demand for Bessarabia. (Since the U.S.S.R can't declare war on anyone in the first allied impulse). It's a smidge of a risk, but then you DoW Yugoslavia and align Rumania, and maybe Hungary on your next impulse.

Then, the Soviets are locked giving you the extra resource, and more importantly, you can begin your eventual 41 attack with a bunch of ARM and LND3 in Chinesau.

Have you used that strategy? Is it worth extending France's survival to do so? I'm interested to hear more about this as I've never considered it, but because getting a strong position in Rumania in '41 has never been a problem otherwise it seems a unworthy trade.

(in reply to Ur_Vile_WEdge)

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RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 2:35:00 AM

Ur_Vile_WEdge

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It's not really *that* hard to knock France over. If you wait until M/A 40 to attack the Dutch, you make the convoy war a little harder on the WAllies, (I hate giving the British a free transport and those 10 convoys, especially in those critical early 2 turns when they're shuffling like mad) and with the Para, you don't run any sort of risk of pesky Rotterdam holdouts. If you're playing with no ZoC on the surprise impulse, you can skip attacking the Dutch entirely.

If you start in Rotterdam, it's not really that hard to blow through the Dyle on the surprise impulse, as you should be able to attack Antwerp from two hexes, and throw in a stuka that can't be intercepted as ground support, (or strike, if they put both Belgian inf in Antwerp to try to hold you out) and then any attempt to move forward into Brussels ought to be suicidal.

Germany knocked out France in M/J 40, and you can do it too, following the same kind of general plan. There's nothing fancy about it. Line up your biggest bombers and ARM, play the O-Chit, and roll forward. I don't really see it being that different than if you attacked the Dutch on the first turn, you'll still be striking out of Rotterdam, and at most, it costs you an impulse or two when the weather for sure clears up in M/J.

You only really critically affect France's survival if you can attack Belgium on the first turn, and that can be chancy. If you've got enough corps in the west to really threaten Belgium, the CW is going to see it, and while he does have to set up before you do, the CW setup is very flexible, given their need to sealift everything anyway. 2 Mot in Plymouth can react to a lot of places. Even without DSB, it can be tough to pry a BEF out of Rotterdam before the snow starts to fly, and if you are playing with it, the mass of battleships that will inevitably find their way to the North Sea can make it nigh impossible to pry them out, short of knocking them out of supply and flipping them.

So yeah, I often find that it can take longer (or at least cost you in blood) to go into the low countries too early.

(in reply to CrusssDaddy)

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RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 3:02:42 AM

Klydon

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A point I didn't see addressed with all these early DoW's. What about the increased impact on the US position from the standpoint of bringing them in the war earlier/giving them the option to make certain picks earlier? If I remember from the old days, there was a fair difference between 1939 and 1940 DoW's on minors.

Certainly if a German can get Rumania in and keep Bessarabia, that puts the Russians at a big disadvantage in terms of what they have to defend against in a early Russian war, but there may be other considerations as well.

(in reply to Ur_Vile_WEdge)

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RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 3:20:38 AM

CrusssDaddy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ur_Vile_WEdge

It's not really *that* hard to knock France over. If you wait until M/A 40 to attack the Dutch, you make the convoy war a little harder on the WAllies, (I hate giving the British a free transport and those 10 convoys, especially in those critical early 2 turns when they're shuffling like mad) and with the Para, you don't run any sort of risk of pesky Rotterdam holdouts. If you're playing with no ZoC on the surprise impulse, you can skip attacking the Dutch entirely.

If you start in Rotterdam, it's not really that hard to blow through the Dyle on the surprise impulse, as you should be able to attack Antwerp from two hexes, and throw in a stuka that can't be intercepted as ground support, (or strike, if they put both Belgian inf in Antwerp to try to hold you out) and then any attempt to move forward into Brussels ought to be suicidal.

Germany knocked out France in M/J 40, and you can do it too, following the same kind of general plan. There's nothing fancy about it. Line up your biggest bombers and ARM, play the O-Chit, and roll forward. I don't really see it being that different than if you attacked the Dutch on the first turn, you'll still be striking out of Rotterdam, and at most, it costs you an impulse or two when the weather for sure clears up in M/J.

You only really critically affect France's survival if you can attack Belgium on the first turn, and that can be chancy. If you've got enough corps in the west to really threaten Belgium, the CW is going to see it, and while he does have to set up before you do, the CW setup is very flexible, given their need to sealift everything anyway. 2 Mot in Plymouth can react to a lot of places. Even without DSB, it can be tough to pry a BEF out of Rotterdam before the snow starts to fly, and if you are playing with it, the mass of battleships that will inevitably find their way to the North Sea can make it nigh impossible to pry them out, short of knocking them out of supply and flipping them.

So yeah, I often find that it can take longer (or at least cost you in blood) to go into the low countries too early.

I don't play with the no-ZOC rule so holding a line in Belgium is easier for the Allies in my games.

(in reply to Ur_Vile_WEdge)

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RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 3:23:45 AM

Ur_Vile_WEdge

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I've only played with RaW 7, so I can't tell you about other versions, but the ruleset I've always played with, there's no overt entry difference for attacking a minor in 1939 as opposed to 1940. On the other hand, the 1939 chits are bigger, on average, than the 1940 chits, so there's less of an effect of entry draws if you can wait until 1940. And of course, if the U.s. gets the chits sooner rather than later, they might start playing inconvenient little entry actions.

That being said, there's only a 30% chance of a draw for attacking the Yugoslavs, and another 30% each for aligning the minors. Especially since you probably want to align Hungary and Rumania anyway, you're essentially trading .9 of an entry chit in 1941 for a .9 of an entry chit in 1939. Personally, I think the extra pileup against the Soviets is well worth it.

(in reply to Klydon)

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RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 3:28:17 AM

composer99

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With respect to Germany knocking over the Netherlands, as noted the Germans have to take care to avoid Commonwealth forces suddenly appearing in Rotterdam. There are three, maybe four, ways to go about this:

First, if the Commonwealth player "shoots his bolt", so to speak, moving units by sea and leaving no force capable of intervening. In all likelihood, at least before spring 1940, you will only get this opportunity very late in a turn, if the Commonwealth player suspects the turn will end.

Second, the Germans can call a combined impulse and sail a unit out to sea (I prefer sending just a division on a cruiser). They can invade Rotterdam and support the attack with a beefy unit overland. Resolve the attack on Amsterdam first to reduce the size of the notional unit and you are good to go. This is best done when there are only light "picket" Royal Navy forces at sea.

Third, as noted upthread, the Germans can wait until March/April 1940 and go in with the paradrop to get the guaranteed result. This is the safest bet, and there is pretty much nothing wrong with going with this reliable tactic instead of one of these other ones.

Fourth, the Germans can play the "I bet the turn will end after this impulse" game and just invade without making any special effort to secure Rotterdam or wait for the Commonwealth to commit elsewhere. To work, this must be done late in the turn.

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RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 4:37:52 AM

michaelbaldur

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why take out Yugoslavia when you can align it after you are at war with USSR...

so instead of taking out Yugoslavia, take out Greece, then later you can align, the other minors around it..

then you get, a HQ ..some good units and 2 factories. NO partisans.

Yugoslavia have a nice big army that can support the Germans or Italy (Yugoslavia aligns to the one that control Athens)

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RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 5:35:31 AM

Extraneous

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20. The Axis declares war on:
Poland, Spain, Turkey or any American country (1 USA entry chit and a 20% chance of another will be added to the USA entry pool)
Belgium, Finland, Rumania, Sweden or Switzerland (There is a 80% chance of a USA entry chit will be added to the USA entry pool)
Other minor (There is a 30% chance of a USA entry chit will be added to the USA entry pool)

(if Japan declares war place USA entry chit in the USA (Ja) entry pool else place it in the USA (Ge/It) entry pool)

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RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 5:43:02 AM

Ur_Vile_WEdge

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Well, 2 reasons.

Firstly, aligning Yugoslavia means taking Athens, and taking Athens without DoWing Yugoslavia generally involves aligning Bulgaria, and having enough control of the Med to send a couple of inf to Albania and attacking Greece with them.

Certainly doable, and I've done it myself, but it's not a sure thing, especially if something goes wrong in France. If the British are doing well enough, (or are ax crazy enough) to send in a bunch of carriers into the Eastern Med, and start ferrying in troops to the Greek mountains, you can have a very serious mess instead of a short easy campaign in the summertime.

Secondly, while the two factories, the Yugoslavian troops, and the freedom from the partisans are nice, you win or lose the war in Russia. Attacking Yugoslavia allows you to align Rumania, and aligning Rumania allows you to start that much closer to the factory line and destroying the Soviets. A good rolling offense in that first summer can be bad. If you've managed to screen the French and do this in 1940, it can be practically unstoppable.

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RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 7:24:44 AM

Numdydar

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So basicly ignore France and attack Russia first? What about the MR pact? Do you not accept it or take it and then breack it? If you go into Russia in 1940, what about the Axis minors? How hard is it to get them (and finland to come along for the ride?

Thanks everyone for all the comments to my questions. I am learning a lot

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RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 7:38:23 AM

Ur_Vile_WEdge

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No, I'm not saying it always wins. There are no universally winning strategies in this game; it's a polar strategy, one that will probably win the game for you if you can get it to work, or fizzle spectacularly and get you into an unwinnable two front war if you can't knock the Soviets out in that first summer. But it is a plan, and one that at the very least you ought to know how to deal with if the German player in your game decides to throw one at you.

But the basics of the 1940 Barb are:

Ignore France as much as possible; screen at the border. Do not declare war on Belgium, make the Allies do that to get to you.

Knock out Poland, Yugoslavia, and Denmark on the first turn. You'll probably have to align Hungary and Rumania right then and there. If you're at war with Yugoslavia, you can align Rumania, (as long as the Soviets haven't demanded Bessarabia first, and you can get the jump on them this way)

You can't refuse to sign the MR pact, but you can break it, same as any other neutrality pact, if you have the 2:1 garrison ratio. Soviet defensive chits will be worth double in 1940, but you're drawing 2 to his 1, which gives you some leverage. As for the rest? Spam units. Mil are good, as are MTN and Mech. If you're playing with CBVs, so much the better, you'll get a few more bodies. And IIRC, if you aligned Hungary and Rumania, they have something like 11 garrison worth of units between them. Stuff the border enough, and you can declare war.

Aligning Finland is same as usual. If they haven't made the demand, you can align them after you DoW the Soviets. If they have, you can align them at any time. Pick up Bulgaria when you can.

Unit density will be very low in 1940. It's probably the only time in the game where mobility can be as important as raw power; lots of room to maneuver, so make sure your HQs stay face up. Make sure the Italians provide two fighters at the very least, since you'll need to take a lot of land actions, and it's very easy to overrun your fighter umbrellas, and the Italian planes can spare you some action limits.

At that point, it's just tactics, how to do the most damage to the Soviets as quickly as possible. And you do need to knock them out, because France is going to mess you up severely if you let them.

The other other alternative is to throw everything but the kitchen sink west on the first turn or two, and try to Vichy Paris in 1939 (risky). At that point, you can hurl pretty much all of Germany at the Soviets. You won't have the force to wipe out the Yugoslavs, so if the Soviets demand Bessarabia (likely), you might want to consider allowing the claim, then denying the secondary claims, and just attacking Hungary to get access to Rumania. They're weak, you can beat them up, and that gives you a route to Rumania, and then the whole stacking a whole mess of ARMs and stukas there.

(in reply to Numdydar)

Post #: 19

RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 4:34:53 PM

Numdydar

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If the Allies declare on Belgian, that should REALLY mess things up for France and England with the US and their colonies. That would have been a huge deal at the time and should have casued a bunch of unrest across their emoires. Does the game model this in any way?

(in reply to Ur_Vile_WEdge)

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RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 5:13:03 PM

Ur_Vile_WEdge

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The game isn't nuanced enough to register something like colony unrest for attacking a historic friend.

However, there is a pretty massive U.S. entry shift. I think it's something like -12 entry (so one chit lost automatically, and a 20% chance of losing a second), plus, you won't be getting the U.S. entry bonus for Germany declaring war on Belgium themselves, which I think is like 80% chance of a chit.

So it'll set back U.S. entry by about 2 turns. Other than that though, there are no direct penalties. (Well, besides the Belgians joining up with the Axis if you attack them, but Belgium is puny and will probably fall in an impulse or two of France attacking.)

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RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 6:08:40 PM

Numdydar

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Well historically the impact on US entry should be massive. A lot more that what the game allows if what you say is true (and I have no reason to doubt you

). The Allies would not only break their non-agression treaty, but also their garrentee of independance. The entire world would be massively upset if that occured. It would even have had a major issue in the Pacific too. As I am sure Holland would have been much more willing to allow Japan to 'protect' them given what occured to their cousin country. So Japan could have gotten all the oil they wanted from the Dutch and so the US embaro (if there would even be one) would have had no effect.

So if the game is going to allow such ahistorical behavior on the Allies part, it should be able to model the worldwide repercussions of it. Having something like this delay the US entry by 2 turns (4 months) is absurd. If this occured in RL, and Japan was able to get there oil from the Dutch (i.e no embargo by the Dutch), then there would have been no Pearl Harbor, there would have been no US entry into the war at all, no lend lease to anyone, definately no DDs for bases, etc. Everyone was upset at the British for the French fleet attack and Madagastar invasion so I can only imagine the uproar on attacking Belgium.

So if the game cannot model Allies ahistorical behavor better than what you have described, then something is wrong. Does the WiF expansion, iirc Decision III (the one that allows a 1936 start) add a better model for play radically far off the historical path?

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Post #: 22

RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 6:13:13 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: CrusssDaddy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ur_Vile_WEdge

The point of an Early Yugoslavia is that if you do it on your second impulse, you pre-empt the demand for Bessarabia. (Since the U.S.S.R can't declare war on anyone in the first allied impulse). It's a smidge of a risk, but then you DoW Yugoslavia and align Rumania, and maybe Hungary on your next impulse.

Then, the Soviets are locked giving you the extra resource, and more importantly, you can begin your eventual 41 attack with a bunch of ARM and LND3 in Chinesau.

Have you used that strategy? Is it worth extending France's survival to do so? I'm interested to hear more about this as I've never considered it, but because getting a strong position in Rumania in '41 has never been a problem otherwise it seems a unworthy trade.

Crussdaddy I am impressed with this post and the posts above and hope you stay positive and not negative because, you are showing, at least to me, your expertise in this game, and that expertise will be needed by all new players including me as we begin to understand this great game, deeply appreciated. No smileys for now.

Bo

(in reply to CrusssDaddy)

Post #: 23

RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 7:24:19 PM

paulderynck

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ur_Vile_WEdge

You can't refuse to sign the MR pact, but you can break it, same as any other neutrality pact, if you have the 2:1 garrison ratio. Soviet defensive chits will be worth double in 1940, but you're drawing 2 to his 1, which gives you some leverage. As for the rest? Spam units. Mil are good, as are MTN and Mech. If you're playing with CBVs, so much the better, you'll get a few more bodies. And IIRC, if you aligned Hungary and Rumania, they have something like 11 garrison worth of units between them. Stuff the border enough, and you can declare war.

It is not the pact chits that are doubled, it is the Russian garrison value. So if RG is Russian Garrison and AG is axis garrison, DC is defensive chits and OC is offensive chits, then:

AG + 2 x OC must equal or exceed 2 x (2 x RG + DC) which is 4 x RG + 2 x DC

In other words, in 1940, every Russian garrison point is worth 4 Axis garrison points and the chits will cancel out on average.

As long as the Russians stuff the border they can make it impossible for the Axis to break the pact in 1940.

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Post #: 24

RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 9:07:25 PM

Ur_Vile_WEdge

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huh, you're right about that. I had been playing that wrong for years. How about that.

Although I'm still not 100% sure about your conclusion; The Germans have an overwhelming starting advantage in troops, they get to call out their reserves first and use those, and they'll get access to some of their CBVS if you're playing with them, and you'll get to add in the free troops you get from aligning Hungary, Rumania, and possibly Bulgaria. They also will get more production in those critical first two turns of unit spamming, (If you're going for an attack in the first impulse of M/A 40 soviets can only really count on their first turn's and part of their second turn's production being in place, as Odessa is the only city along the border)and can build out their Mil pool, whereas the Soviets can't.

I haven't done the math myself, and of course, the Germans will have the need to leave troops on their western border, wheras the Soviets can just abandon the far east in the face of the Japanese attack, but I'm not 100% sure about your conclusion that the Soviets can "always" shut down a 1940 attack.

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Post #: 25

RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 9:15:54 PM

paulderynck

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Do the math and you'll see even 1941 is difficult. Unless you assume an absolutely wide open western border will be ignored by France and the CW in 1940.

Even so, I've seen several games where the Russian builds were totally focused on garrison value (including just pilots for the planes in the Reserve Pool) and the Germans had absolutely everything they could muster on the border in 1941 (Occupied France garrisoned by Italians, all the minors activated) and they still could not break the garrison ratio.

The CBVs might be enough to make a difference but IMO they change it from a 95% chance Russia's garrison can't be broken to an 80% chance it cannot.

Hence - years of discussion on the yahoo forum about house rules or proposed rules for Germany to attack Russia in 1941.

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Post #: 26

RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 9:38:28 PM

composer99

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pauldernyck, I did want to mention a slight error in your formula.

(It doesn't change your conclusion about the relative value of USSR defensive garrison.)

Because you can only double garrison value with pact markers, your formula should look more like:

AG + OC > 2 * ((2 * RG) + DC)

(more parentheses added because I like them)

< Message edited by composer99 -- 9/26/2013 9:39:24 PM >

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Post #: 27

RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 10:37:59 PM

Numdydar

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So if the USSR can prevent a '41 attack, what happens? Russia attacks in '42? Germany runs amock in NA and Near East in '41?

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Post #: 28

RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 10:47:31 PM

michaelbaldur

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in Mwif there are an option, that make it easy to break the pact in late 1941 ..

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Post #: 29

RE: Offensive chits and Phoney War - 9/26/2013 10:53:44 PM

Numdydar

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Well late '41 is not helping Germany very much

. If it is past July/August then Germany is hosed in '41. Does anyone know how the game itself is going to address this? Can Germany attack Russia in the May/June turn or is that really hard to do or forbibben by the rules somehow?

Sorry for all the questions, but since I know nothing about how the game plays, I am trying to figure it all out

. So thanks for being patience with me.

(in reply to michaelbaldur)

Post #: 30