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RE: Wild Sheep Chase

 
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RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/26/2013 5:47:55 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Good job on hitting the 4E's. Yes, killing 6 weeks production in one day feels really nice and you need to savour it. I'm sure Jocke is really stinging.

But two good days in 3 years means he may or may not have ac pool issues as you never really know what his op losses are, FOW on that being so bad. You've only got until late March before the B29 starts coming. He doesn't get that much production initially, but he gets quite a few groups (something like 16!).

Still, good JOB!!!




I guess I was a bit sloppy in my recent posts and forgot to change the year from the 44 date! It's 1945!!

He has had the B-29s for 9 months, torching my DEI industry and in the last 4-5 weeks hitting the HI.

I have no real idea of his pools, but I know he has used his 4E daily, so even without a lot of big days knocking them out, still the ops and little fragments lost must add up. In the air losses screen above (with the FOW of course in play) it looks like around 830 B-24J lost. The B-29-1 has to be low since that was only 18 planes a month (with those that arrived with the first groups too) and that shows 275 lost. I'l post some data from the game to see if I can tell a bit about his pools.

Jocke has figured out a really good system of using 4E and fighter sweeps. The only problem is that it requires massed use. This time he didn't go all in. It looks like he was really thinking I'd be off guard here, even though he's seen all of these fighter groups in the PI for a long time. I have changed though the settings I'm using and that seems to be the most critical difference to this attack and result. I won't go into that just yet, but it's great to find some things still at this point in game that I wish I would have discovered years ago.

I also think his insistence to actually change our HR to 32k max altitude will hurt his chances most in the long run. He'll still get good results, but losing the dominant strata-sweep will mean fewer 10:1 sweeps.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to PaxMondo)
Post #: 2401
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/26/2013 6:19:07 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		ALLIED BOMBERS
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The B-29-1 arrived in 4/44 and was only produced through 10/44. That works out to 126 replacements and from the groups another 232 arriving, so 358 total. My loss numbers may be way off, but it looks like he has only 358 - 275 = 83 left. There are 16 groups of 7 planes each in the XX US Bomber command if I'm reading this correctly, so 112 planes total to fill them out. It seems like some must be short now. If this is all true I'm pretty happy about some of those earlier port raids and daylight strikes he tried where I lost a lot of material stuff but did get to some of the bombers.

Soon he'll be getting not only the B-29-25 at 40/month but also the B-29B at 40/month also it looks like, starting in 3/45. So if I can hold out and keep knocking back the night raids for a couple of months maybe I can actually build a bit of supply up to use when the next waves pound the rest of the industry to dust.

The B-24J started producing in 9/43 at 50/month. So that should be around 800+ replacements by now in addition to the planes that arrived in groups. He only got 5 groups of 12 with B-24J so that's only 50 more planes. At say 860 planes he should be almost out since our air losses screen shows 830 lost.

This makes me think my numbers are either highly exaggerated in the losses screen or something else is not right. Does he get and extra 15 planes from the production factory of B-24D which may upgrade to the J version, giving 65/month total? That would be 1040 +50 = 1090, which sounds slightly more correct. Still, he must have more than 250 of these left, as he's using that many in both the Thailand and the PI areas.

Oh, well. Lets just say I still have a lot of work to do ad leave it at that. I do hope to figure all of this out before playing an Allied game soon though.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 10/26/2013 6:21:56 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 2402
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/26/2013 9:33:56 PM   
Spidery

 

Posts: 1821
Joined: 10/6/2012
From: Hampshire, UK
Status: offline 		I believe you can calculate exactly how many 4E you have destroyed by taking the aircraft loss from the aircraft screen (which counts as 1 per aircraft) and the aircraft loss VP that counts 2 for each 4E and 1 for everything else.

You can then compare that against the total for all the individual 4E models to get a view on the degree of overestimation - which seems to run at 10-20%

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2403
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/26/2013 10:24:23 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		I think it would be hard to account for the VPs as well considering I don't know which planes the FOW is involved with, or which 4E are accounted for even if I could separate the 1E/2E from the 4E. It's probably intended that the count is not easy to determine.

I'm sort of fine with not knowing exactly, but just doing this little bit shows me that there is most likely not an overabundance of these planes right now. That's really enough. A bit of mystery will keep me no my toes.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 2404
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/27/2013 4:27:30 AM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
The B-29-1 arrived in 4/44 and was only produced through 10/44. That works out to 126 replacements and from the groups another 232 arriving, so 358 total. My loss numbers may be way off, but it looks like he has only 358 - 275 = 83 left. There are 16 groups of 7 planes each in the XX US Bomber command if I'm reading this correctly, so 112 planes total to fill them out. It seems like some must be short now. If this is all true I'm pretty happy about some of those earlier port raids and daylight strikes he tried where I lost a lot of material stuff but did get to some of the bombers.


I knock off 30% overall on those reports for the allies, and 40% on the 4E's. When I try to tally back to VP's, that's what seems to come close. So likely he has more than you think, but far less than he is happy about. AND, the SR=5 means that a great number of them are OOS for several weeks yet. So your estimate of what he has is likely very close to what he has in his groups now ready to fly. He prolly has another 80 that being repaired.

_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2405
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/27/2013 12:35:12 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		8 - 9 January 1945
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SUBS: The Allied horde stays put, which makes me think he's up to something in the area. Several more are hit and the Ray looks pretty badly off while the Blenny was surely sunk.

STRAT BOMBING: B-29s hit Manila but this time not one seems to be lost even though flak does seem to damage a good few.

RECON: Nagasaki and Tokyo seem to be the targets of choice lately.

CHINA/INDOCHINA: Luck is with us near Vinh as the Allied tanks try again. It's a 1:2 and gives some good casualties to the other side, which could give enough time to get the majority of troops out of the area.

Masses of Japanese troops prepare to rail out of the Saigon Cam Ran area. I'll get most into strat mode and then see how this plays out. The divisions are moving well and with no air interference will make Saigon in a few days. Still, they then must get into strat and rail out. At least another week and I'm not sure we've got that. The Allies also move the CVs back to the Northern Borneo coast area. Not sure what will happen there, but all air units are still on alert in Saigon as well as Singers, all within a day's travel for them.

LUZON: The situation at Manila is turning a little too quickly for my liking. The Allies lower the forts to 5 and that means the Japanese take almost double the casualties in spite of a 1:6 attack result. Still, not too bad if it means he has to wait again for 5-6 days. I need to now send in reinforcements. I also have 600 engineers here and will start trying to rebuild the forts. If I can hold in the later stages I might be able to get forts to bump up once or twice to really surprise the Allies. We'll see. Supply was luckily dropped off today so that tops up the coffers.

HOME ISLANDS: The Akagi finishes it's repairs and moves back to the KB area!!! That is the last of the damaged CVs to be finished. It brings us to respectability in a counter-punch role, but there is no way we can take on the full Allied fleet now. Still, as I've seen before, opportunities arise and strange things can happen. All KB fighter groups have upgraded to the Sam.

Supply is still struggling to make it to all bases here as every few days I am forced to remove a small portion for defense of Luzon and to fill up the bases in Indochina. Tough going, but very realistic.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR January 8, 45
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ASW attack near Quinhon at 66,71

Japanese Ships
DD Sawakaze
DD Hokaze

Allied Ships
SS Hake, hits 2

SS Hake launches 2 torpedoes at DD Sawakaze
DD Hokaze fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Hokaze attacking submerged sub ....
DD Hokaze fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Samah at 72,68

Japanese Ships
E No.112
E No.15
E No.66

Allied Ships
SS Spadefish

SS Spadefish launches 2 torpedoes at E No.112
Spadefish diving deep ....
E No.112 fails to find sub, continues to search...
E No.66 fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Samah at 71,68

Japanese Ships
E No.66
E No.112

Allied Ships
SS Pintado

SS Pintado is located by E No.66
Pintado diving deep ....
E No.112 fails to find sub and abandons search
E No.66 fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Quinhon at 70,69

Japanese Ships
E No.33
E No.15
E No.112
E No.66

Allied Ships
SS Ray, hits 10, heavy damage

SS Ray is located by E No.33
E No.112 fails to find sub and abandons search
E No.66 fails to find sub, continues to search...
E No.66 attacking submerged sub ....
Escort abandons search for sub

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Tourane at 68,67

Japanese Ships
E No.144
E No.74

Allied Ships
SS Queenfish, hits 6

SS Queenfish is located by E No.144
E No.144 fails to find sub, continues to search...
E No.144 fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Samah at 72,68

Japanese Ships
E No.63
E W-23
E W-21

Allied Ships
SS Scamp, hits 5

SS Scamp launches 2 torpedoes at E No.63
Scamp diving deep ....
E W-23 attacking submerged sub ....
E W-23 fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 172nd JAAF AF Bn , at 69,86 (Kudat)

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 39 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-25D1 Mitchell x 48
B-25G Mitchell x 3
B-25H Mitchell x 16
B-25J1 Mitchell x 15
F6F-5 Hellcat x 4
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 20
PBJ-1D Mitchell x 15

Allied aircraft losses
B-25D1 Mitchell: 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
24 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
15 x PBJ-1D Mitchell bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR January 9, 45
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ASW attack near Quinhon at 70,69

Japanese Ships
E No.19
E W-23
E W-21

Allied Ships
SS Picuda, hits 2

SS Picuda is located by E No.19
E W-23 fails to find sub and abandons search
E W-21 attacking submerged sub ....
Escort abandons search for sub

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Quinhon at 68,70

Japanese Ships
E W-23
E W-21

Allied Ships
SS Bugara

SS Bugara is sighted by escort
E W-23 fails to find sub and abandons search
E W-21 fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Rachgia at 57,71, Range 5,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
xAP Ussuri Maru, Shell hits 15, and is sunk

Allied Ships
DD Anthony
DD Charles Badger
DD Bush
DD Daly
DD Heywood Edwards
DD Paul Hamilton
DD McKee

Reduced sighting due to 17% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 17% moonlight: 5,000 yards
Range closes to 28,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allied lookouts spot Japanese task force at 5,000 yards
Fultz, J.R. crosses the 'T'
DD Bush engages xAP Ussuri Maru at 5,000 yards
Range closes to 4,000 yards
xAP Ussuri Maru sunk by DD McKee at 2,000 yards
Combat ends with last Japanese ship sunk...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Manila , at 79,77

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 25 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 13

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 4 damaged

Manpower hits 6
Fires 3225

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B-29-1 Superfort bombing from 12000 feet
City Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Cam Ranh Bay at 64,74

Japanese Ships
E No.74
E No.144

Allied Ships
SS Blenny, hits 10, heavy damage

SS Blenny launches 4 torpedoes at E No.74
Blenny diving deep ....
E No.144 fails to find sub, continues to search...
Large oil slick appears over area of attack!
Escort abandons search for sub

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 55,59 (near Tavoy)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 92537 troops, 1251 guns, 1898 vehicles, Assault Value = 740

Defending force 60590 troops, 914 guns, 572 vehicles, Assault Value = 1696

Japanese adjusted assault: 4

Allied adjusted defense: 6001

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1500

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
11106 casualties reported
Squads: 426 destroyed, 180 disabled
Non Combat: 7 destroyed, 224 disabled
Engineers: 31 destroyed, 29 disabled
Guns lost 70 (38 destroyed, 32 disabled)
Vehicles lost 48 (28 destroyed, 20 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
564 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 20 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 34 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 9 (1 destroyed, 8 disabled)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 127403 troops, 2461 guns, 5286 vehicles, Assault Value = 5246

Defending force 113058 troops, 1356 guns, 1591 vehicles, Assault Value = 3057

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 5

Allied adjusted assault: 1901

Japanese adjusted defense: 11609

Allied assault odds: 1 to 6 (fort level 5)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
8281 casualties reported
Squads: 144 destroyed, 410 disabled
Non Combat: 11 destroyed, 117 disabled
Engineers: 14 destroyed, 79 disabled
Guns lost 216 (49 destroyed, 167 disabled)
Vehicles lost 61 (19 destroyed, 42 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
4924 casualties reported
Squads: 32 destroyed, 254 disabled
Non Combat: 17 destroyed, 256 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 114 disabled
Guns lost 145 (25 destroyed, 120 disabled)
Vehicles lost 451 (37 destroyed, 414 disabled)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 64,60 (near Vinh)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 8627 troops, 47 guns, 930 vehicles, Assault Value = 594

Defending force 11485 troops, 29 guns, 200 vehicles, Assault Value = 432

Allied adjusted assault: 366

Japanese adjusted defense: 583

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
24 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Vehicles lost 59 (23 destroyed, 36 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
523 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 78 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 40 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Vehicles lost 90 (16 destroyed, 74 disabled)

Assaulting units:
50th Tank Brigade
254th Armoured Brigade
255th Indian Tank Brigade
18th Cavalry Regiment

Defending units:
12th Tank Regiment
27th Electric Engineer Regiment
13th Ind.Infantry Brigade
65th Brigade
176th JAAF AF Bn /3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Reinforcements:

E Habushi arrives at Tokyo
E Sakito arrives at Tokyo

Losses:

Loss of xAP Ussuri Maru on Jan 09, 1945 is admitted

Ships Sunk:

SS Blenny is reported to have been sunk near Cam Ranh Bay on Jan 09, 1945
Previous report of sinking of CVE Kwajalein incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

All ships scatter back to Singers and Saigon. It's like roaches when the lights come on.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to PaxMondo)
Post #: 2406
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/28/2013 1:40:57 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		10 - 11 January 1945
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SUBS: The Allied subs seem to be very slowly moving back. A few more are hit again both by surface and air ASW.

DEI: It's looking like very little else will be able to get back from the DEI. if the Allied CVs remain in the area there is no way to move things past. Most of the fast transports are in the HI or hiding in Saigon.

STRAT BOMBING: The Allies try for Maebashi, a major airframe and engine production center, but with A6M5d-S up to meet them, from 9k they get no damage. I'm not even sure what they were aiming for though, as there were no hits. Only a couple of bombers hit for a loss of 11 NF. Still, small victories!

CHINA/INDOCHINA: The majority of troops from Saigon and Cam Ran, including several brigades and one very good division, are going to make it back to China. I'm sending the rest today, and the stuff form Bangkok will be the part that is again stranded it seems. One division may sneak past if the locomotives really pile on the steam. About 8-10 base forces remain to cover bases along the Indochinese coast, there are a few brigades holding the line to keep Allied armor from closing the rail early. All but one air HQs get through which is huge. The main block near Vinh will be trashed soon as 175k Allied troops are on the move there. I'm preparing a block in the jungles near Nanning using restricted divisions for the base and other units from Indochina will pile on.

I've decided to unload the fuel from tankers in Saigon, thus getting it to perhaps move down the coast to Haiphong if I start pulling from there. Maybe. I'm also trying to get a big TF of the Tonan whalers through from Singers. It's in no man's sea now but has no DL, so maybe at flank I can slip these into Saigon and send the oil down the line before it's closed.

LUZON: The Allies bombard at Manila. No air action. I'm thinking he'll now push hard on the ground. I see what look like more troops landing by LST. I'll begin to reinforce Manila. Maybe I should have done to make the forts work better before, but I was and am still afraid of a landing behind at Lingayen or Appari. I now have some other ideas about that though as well.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR January 10, 45
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sub attack near Cam Ranh Bay at 68,72

Japanese Ships
E No.112
E No.66

Allied Ships
SS Cabrilla, hits 1

SS Cabrilla launches 2 torpedoes at E No.112
E No.112 fails to find sub and abandons search
E No.66 fails to find sub, continues to search...
E No.66 attacking submerged sub ....
E No.66 is out of ASW ammo
Escort abandons search for sub

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 3rd Cavalry Regiment, at 64,70 , near Dalat

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 23 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 8
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 15
Ki-49-IIb Helen x 16
Ki-84r Frank x 8
Ki-100-I Tony x 5

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
16 x Ki-49-IIb Helen bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 55,59 (near Tavoy)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 81098 troops, 1172 guns, 1856 vehicles, Assault Value = 335

Defending force 60270 troops, 914 guns, 572 vehicles, Assault Value = 1664

Japanese adjusted assault: 4

Allied adjusted defense: 4642

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1160

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), op mode(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
8172 casualties reported
Squads: 548 destroyed, 8 disabled
Non Combat: 12 destroyed, 130 disabled
Engineers: 98 destroyed, 6 disabled
Guns lost 83 (37 destroyed, 46 disabled)
Vehicles lost 93 (15 destroyed, 78 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
189 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 19 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 6431 troops, 617 guns, 422 vehicles, Assault Value = 4560

Defending force 106773 troops, 1323 guns, 1578 vehicles, Assault Value = 2560

Japanese ground losses:
92 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Allied ground losses:
58 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 25 (7 destroyed, 18 disabled)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Kudat (69,86)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 9669 troops, 165 guns, 169 vehicles, Assault Value = 404

Defending force 4572 troops, 32 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 132

Allied adjusted assault: 185

Japanese adjusted defense: 117

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 3)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), disruption(-), fatigue(-)
experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
257 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 29 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Allied ground losses:
352 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 50 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Guns lost 8 (1 destroyed, 7 disabled)

Assaulting units:
3rd Motor Brigade
24th (Sep) Infantry Regiment
22nd Australian Brigade

Defending units:
63rd Infantry Brigade
172nd JAAF AF Bn


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 64,70 (near Dalat)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 512 troops, 0 guns, 92 vehicles, Assault Value = 50

Defending force 2794 troops, 16 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 73

Allied adjusted assault: 41

Japanese adjusted defense: 145

Allied assault odds: 1 to 3

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker: leaders(+)

Japanese ground losses:
39 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
3rd Cavalry Regiment

Defending units:
7th Ind.Infantry Brigade

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR January 11, 45
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Night Air attack on Maebashi , at 113,59

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 76 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5d-S Zero x 17

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 19

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5d-S Zero: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 7 damaged

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Maebashi , at 113,59

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 35 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5d-S Zero x 12

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 10

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5d-S Zero: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 4 damaged

Aircraft Attacking:
10 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet *
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Cam Ranh Bay at 65,76

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 107 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 29 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B7A2 Grace x 3

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 89
Corsair IV x 19
Hellcat I x 8
Seafire IIC x 14
Seafire L.III x 2
F4U-1A Corsair x 165
F4U-1D Corsair x 196
F6F-3 Hellcat x 231
F6F-5 Hellcat x 44 Um, big CAP!?! 700+ fighters!

Japanese aircraft losses
B7A2 Grace: 2 destroyed

No Allied losses

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 55,59 (near Tavoy)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 71515 troops, 1098 guns, 1801 vehicles, Assault Value = 252

Defending force 47655 troops, 638 guns, 413 vehicles, Assault Value = 1285

Japanese adjusted assault: 8

Allied adjusted defense: 6202

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 775

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
8165 casualties reported
Squads: 653 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 11 destroyed, 249 disabled
Engineers: 80 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 72 (53 destroyed, 19 disabled)
Vehicles lost 49 (7 destroyed, 42 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
140 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 18 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Reinforcements:

MGB G-1022 arrives at Shimonoseki
APD T-14 arrives at Kobe
ML G-437 arrives at Nagoya

Losses: none.

Ships Sunk: none.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I'm trying to scoot a big convoy by from Singers to Saigon. Thankfully the Allies are moving forward steadily and staying together and their air search seems spotty in the area. A lot of planes get caught up in the CAP over Saigon while searching. Due to the roving Fletchers i might not be able to get more out of Saigon, but I'll likely try soon.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________



Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 10/28/2013 1:41:37 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2407
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/28/2013 3:12:49 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline 		As a Japanese player planning to drag his war out well beyond the historical timeline, any words of wisdom for the early years? Or some trade secrets for delaying the inevitable Allied victory?

I've already got a few small engineer units digging in at important points in the rear areas (Okinawa, the Marianas, the Kuriles ect). Sure, 12 engineers might not be alot, but I'd love to see what they can do if I give them two or three years to build.

If you were to play this game again, what would you say to yourself to do/not to do?

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2408
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/28/2013 6:00:24 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

As a Japanese player planning to drag his war out well beyond the historical timeline, any words of wisdom for the early years? Or some trade secrets for delaying the inevitable Allied victory?

I've already got a few small engineer units digging in at important points in the rear areas (Okinawa, the Marianas, the Kuriles ect). Sure, 12 engineers might not be alot, but I'd love to see what they can do if I give them two or three years to build.

If you were to play this game again, what would you say to yourself to do/not to do?


That would be a massively long answer!

I'll get to it but I'm off to see something right now.

Before getting to it though, what scenario are you playing, is it PBEM, and what is your strategic position and planning for the early war?

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 2409
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/28/2013 7:25:04 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

As a Japanese player planning to drag his war out well beyond the historical timeline, any words of wisdom for the early years? Or some trade secrets for delaying the inevitable Allied victory?

I've already got a few small engineer units digging in at important points in the rear areas (Okinawa, the Marianas, the Kuriles ect). Sure, 12 engineers might not be alot, but I'd love to see what they can do if I give them two or three years to build.

If you were to play this game again, what would you say to yourself to do/not to do?


That would be a massively long answer!

I'll get to it but I'm off to see something right now.

Before getting to it though, what scenario are you playing, is it PBEM, and what is your strategic position and planning for the early war?



Scenario 1 PBEM.

Overall, things are excellent. It's currently mid-January 1942. Yorktown and Enterprise have been sunk with no CV (or significant air losses) to the Japanese. Singapore is invested, as is Manila, and a single IJA division holds a foothold on Java. The Aleutians up to Dutch Harbour are firmly Japanese.

My overall intentions I am reluctant to discuss (as my opponent might run across it), but no massive over-extensions beyond the historical perimiter.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2410
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/28/2013 10:38:09 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

As a Japanese player planning to drag his war out well beyond the historical timeline, any words of wisdom for the early years? Or some trade secrets for delaying the inevitable Allied victory?

I've already got a few small engineer units digging in at important points in the rear areas (Okinawa, the Marianas, the Kuriles ect). Sure, 12 engineers might not be alot, but I'd love to see what they can do if I give them two or three years to build.

If you were to play this game again, what would you say to yourself to do/not to do?


That would be a massively long answer!

I'll get to it but I'm off to see something right now.

Before getting to it though, what scenario are you playing, is it PBEM, and what is your strategic position and planning for the early war?



Scenario 1 PBEM.

Overall, things are excellent. It's currently mid-January 1942. Yorktown and Enterprise have been sunk with no CV (or significant air losses) to the Japanese. Singapore is invested, as is Manila, and a single IJA division holds a foothold on Java. The Aleutians up to Dutch Harbour are firmly Japanese.

My overall intentions I am reluctant to discuss (as my opponent might run across it), but no massive over-extensions beyond the historical perimiter.


Wow. That sounds good so far.

Mainly, advice to all is consider oil/fuel in every decision you make if you wan to get into the late game.

What is the status on Palembang?


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 2411
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/28/2013 11:27:33 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

As a Japanese player planning to drag his war out well beyond the historical timeline, any words of wisdom for the early years? Or some trade secrets for delaying the inevitable Allied victory?

I've already got a few small engineer units digging in at important points in the rear areas (Okinawa, the Marianas, the Kuriles ect). Sure, 12 engineers might not be alot, but I'd love to see what they can do if I give them two or three years to build.

If you were to play this game again, what would you say to yourself to do/not to do?


That would be a massively long answer!

I'll get to it but I'm off to see something right now.

Before getting to it though, what scenario are you playing, is it PBEM, and what is your strategic position and planning for the early war?



Scenario 1 PBEM.

Overall, things are excellent. It's currently mid-January 1942. Yorktown and Enterprise have been sunk with no CV (or significant air losses) to the Japanese. Singapore is invested, as is Manila, and a single IJA division holds a foothold on Java. The Aleutians up to Dutch Harbour are firmly Japanese.

My overall intentions I am reluctant to discuss (as my opponent might run across it), but no massive over-extensions beyond the historical perimiter.


Wow. That sounds good so far.

Mainly, advice to all is consider oil/fuel in every decision you make if you wan to get into the late game.

What is the status on Palembang?



Intact, thankfully. It would have been all in vain if it had been trashed!

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2412
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/28/2013 11:31:33 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		12 -13 January 1945
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SUBS: The big horde is gone over the horizon. I stand down all ASW air in China and prepare for a run into the area by the Allied fleet. All Es back to replenish.

DEI: I have to decide soon how many fighter groups to abandon to the defense of Singers and Palembang. I can't really fly them back after Indochina and Northern Borneo go unless I have enough supply to change them into Oscars and Zeros later.

STRAT BOMBING: There is a high frequency of attacks at Manila lately by the B-29-1 groups based in the PI, but it's only 48 bombers this night. This time our flak get a few, but not enough to deter him. I'll pop some NF in to see what they do.

CHINA/INDOCHINA: The Allied CVs get within range of Saigon and whether it was intentional or not, strike and sink five big fast 18 knot TK unloading their fuel. Most flows into the port in time, and over 100 Allied planes are lost, presumably with their expert pilots. At this point, I'll take that even though i don't like losing the ships. It could have more benefits strategically though, if he does back off, not wanting to lose more planes. Even just searching 10-15 bombers were lost. That isn't sustainable for him I'm sure.

Most troops will safely make it past the fast rushing Allies down the rail one and into China. One of the Bangkok divisions is now about halfway down the coast and might make it. Two more and a few brigade are in Saigon. Saigon is such a good defensive area I can hold here and see if any chances develop to move others out. It's also a good place to hold to try to get more fuel and oil past to the HI. If I lose it that possibility is gone. A bunch of base forces are about to arrive but I'll streamline the fighters to around 400 in the next few days.

The Allies are crossing now near Vinh and will vaporize our blocking forces.

LUZON: Some PTs move into Bataan and come across it's newest defender, the 15th base force and their 8 x 12.7cm and 16 x 8cm guns! Then hit a bunch of mines!

Two AMs are also hit by Oscar kamis and sunk. Now if I can get some mines into Lingayen and Aparri I'll feel the defenses are as good as I can make them. It's my assumption that the Bataan guns will fire at anything passing through, right? If so even bigger ships could be slowed here and maybe thrown out of their path into a mine. That'd be nice.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR January 12, 45
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Night Air attack on Manila , at 79,77

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 77 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 24 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 17

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 2 damaged
B-29-1 Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak

Manpower hits 2
Fires 1120

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x B-29-1 Superfort bombing from 12000 feet
City Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Manila , at 79,77

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 36 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 4
Fires 6219

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B-29-1 Superfort bombing from 12000 feet
City Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Bataan at 78,77

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid spotted at 25 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 4 destroyed

Allied Ships
AM Canso
AM Kiwi

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x Ki-43-IIIa Oscar flying as kamikaze
Kamikaze: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 27th Electric Engineer Regiment, at 64,60 , near Vinh

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-24D1 Liberator x 3
B-25D1 Mitchell x 15
B-25J1 Mitchell x 16
B-25J11 Mitchell x 16
PBJ-1D Mitchell x 15

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
51 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
15 x PBJ-1D Mitchell bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 65th Brigade, at 64,60 , near Vinh

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 61
Liberator GR.VI x 16
B-24D Liberator x 3
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 12

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
142 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x PB4Y-1 Liberator bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 3rd Cavalry Regiment, at 64,70 , near Dalat

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 15 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 8
Ki-49-IIb Helen x 9
Ki-100-I Tony x 5

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x Ki-49-IIb Helen bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Saigon at 60,71

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5c Zero x 14
A7M2 Sam x 9
J2M3 Jack x 6
J2M5 Jack x 33
N1K1-J George x 7
N1K2-J George x 23
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 10
Ki-84a Frank x 50
Ki-84r Frank x 70
Ki-100-I Tony x 89

Allied aircraft
Hellcat I x 24
F6F-3 Hellcat x 293
F6F-5 Hellcat x 172
SB2C-3 Helldiver x 53

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Hellcat I: 3 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 4 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
SB2C-3 Helldiver: 12 destroyed, 6 damaged

Japanese Ships
TK Nissyo Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
TK Goyo Maru
TK Tatekawa Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
E Hirashima, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
TK Gen'yo Maru, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires
E Ishizaki

Aircraft Attacking:
13 x SB2C-3 Helldiver releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Saigon at 60,71

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 12 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5c Zero x 12
A7M2 Sam x 9
J2M3 Jack x 5
J2M5 Jack x 32
N1K1-J George x 6
N1K2-J George x 22
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 10
Ki-84a Frank x 46
Ki-84r Frank x 69
Ki-100-I Tony x 88

Allied aircraft
SB2C-1C Helldiver x 22
SB2C-3 Helldiver x 28

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
SB2C-1C Helldiver: 10 destroyed, 1 damaged
SB2C-3 Helldiver: 7 destroyed

Japanese Ships
TK Itukusima Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
TK Rikko Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x SB2C-1C Helldiver releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 55,59 (near Tavoy)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 64023 troops, 1019 guns, 1771 vehicles, Assault Value = 202

Defending force 47631 troops, 638 guns, 413 vehicles, Assault Value = 1271

Japanese adjusted assault: 3

Allied adjusted defense: 5737

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1912

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
5484 casualties reported
Squads: 276 destroyed, 24 disabled
Non Combat: 14 destroyed, 347 disabled
Engineers: 18 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 50 (27 destroyed, 23 disabled)
Vehicles lost 131 (25 destroyed, 106 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
191 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 21 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 6 (4 destroyed, 2 disabled)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 6376 troops, 609 guns, 420 vehicles, Assault Value = 4797

Defending force 106026 troops, 1305 guns, 1586 vehicles, Assault Value = 2662

Japanese ground losses:
13 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 8 (4 destroyed, 4 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
Guns lost 24 (12 destroyed, 12 disabled)
Vehicles lost 6 (2 destroyed, 4 disabled)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR January 13, 45
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Naval Gun Fire at Bataan - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

17 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
PT-355, Shell hits 1
PT-354, Shell hits 2, Mine hits 2, heavy damage
PT-353, Shell hits 2, Mine hits 1, heavy damage
PT-295, Shell hits 2, Mine hits 1, heavy damage
PT-224
PT-223, Mine hits 1, heavy damage
PT-170
PT-168
PT-166
PT-165

15th Base Force firing at PT-355
PT-355 firing at 15th Base Force

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TF 134 encounters mine field at Bataan (78,77)

Allied Ships
PT-353, Mine hits 1, heavy damage

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Saigon at 60,71, Range 2,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
AMc Wa 9, Shell hits 3, and is sunk

Allied Ships
DD Converse
DD Evans
DD Albert Grant
DD Hale
DD Halford
DD Healy
DD Heermann
DD John Henley
DD Hoel
DD Luce
DD Mertz
DD Miller
DD Mullany

Reduced sighting due to 0% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 0% moonlight: 2,000 yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TF 121 encounters mine field at Saigon (60,71)

Allied Ships
DD Mullany, Mine hits 1, on fire
DD Hoel, Mine hits 1
DD Heermann, Mine hits 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Naval Gun Fire at Bataan - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

14 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
PT-355, Shell hits 2, Mine hits 1, heavy damage
PT-224, Shell hits 1, Mine hits 1, heavy damage
PT-222, Shell hits 1, Mine hits 2, heavy damage
PT-221, Shell hits 7, heavy fires, heavy damage
PT-170, Shell hits 2, Mine hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
PT-168, Shell hits 1, heavy damage
PT-166, Shell hits 1, Mine hits 1, heavy damage
PT-165, Shell hits 4, heavy damage

15th Base Force firing at PT-355
PT-355 firing at 15th Base Force

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Bataan at 78,77

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 27 NM, estimated altitude 4,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 8

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 2 destroyed

Allied Ships
AM Canso, Kamikaze hits 1, and is sunk
AM Kiwi, Kamikaze hits 2, and is sunk

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x Ki-43-IIIa Oscar flying as kamikaze
Kamikaze: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 64,60 (near Vinh)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 8220 troops, 47 guns, 919 vehicles, Assault Value = 517

Defending force 12006 troops, 51 guns, 186 vehicles, Assault Value = 418

Allied adjusted assault: 424

Japanese adjusted defense: 425

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
284 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 42 disabled
Engineers: 15 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 4 (2 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Vehicles lost 52 (12 destroyed, 40 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
359 casualties reported
Squads: 24 destroyed, 14 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 33 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 6 disabled
Guns lost 14 (2 destroyed, 12 disabled)
Vehicles lost 53 (6 destroyed, 47 disabled)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Reinforcements:

E No.57 arrives at Tokyo
25th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion arrives at Osaka/Kyoto
26th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion arrives at Osaka/Kyoto
E No.106 arrives at Tokyo

Losses:

Loss of AMc Wa 9 on Jan 13, 1945 is admitted

Ships Sunk:

AM Kiwi is reported to have been sunk near Bataan on Jan 13, 1945
AM Canso is reported to have been sunk near Bataan on Jan 13, 1945
Previous report of sinking of SS Blower incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

That was with around 500 Hellcats on escort!
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 11/19/2013 8:44:59 AM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2413
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/29/2013 8:07:07 AM   
Mike Solli


Posts: 15792
Joined: 10/18/2000
From: the flight deck of the Zuikaku
Status: offline 		Hi obvert. I've been reading this AAR for the past couple weeks. I keep wanting to respond but I'm still far behind where you are. (Only on page 63 so far.) I just read about your nice little ambush with KB at Cotabato. Very nice. Then you discussed the state of the economy and how you'll be able to keep your SLOC open from the SRA for a month or more longer to get oil/fuel back to the Home Islands. I got an idea from that. Your oil level (Aug 44) is around 300k. Instead of refining oil in the SRA, what do you think of shipping oil to Japan instead and refining it there? That way you'd get the supply production longer in Japan where you'll really need it in 45. Just a thought. Back to reading now....

_____________________________


Created by the amazing Dixie

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2414
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/29/2013 8:22:58 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Hi obvert. I've been reading this AAR for the past couple weeks. I keep wanting to respond but I'm still far behind where you are. (Only on page 63 so far.) I just read about your nice little ambush with KB at Cotabato. Very nice. Then you discussed the state of the economy and how you'll be able to keep your SLOC open from the SRA for a month or more longer to get oil/fuel back to the Home Islands. I got an idea from that. Your oil level (Aug 44) is around 300k. Instead of refining oil in the SRA, what do you think of shipping oil to Japan instead and refining it there? That way you'd get the supply production longer in Japan where you'll really need it in 45. Just a thought. Back to reading now....


Hi Mike. Nice to hear you're reading. I learn so much from yours I hope anything from my experiences here can offer you something.

The issue with fuel/oil as I see it is where you will need the supply. Unfortunately I still needed a bunch of supply in the DEI at that point so it made sense to power the LCUs and air strength with the supply from the refineries in the DEI rather than having to ship the oil up and ship more supply back down.

My goal was to get to 45 still shipping oil and fuel to the HI and I did make at least that goal which I'm pretty proud of. That gives me about 3-4 months of production from the DEI oil plus a bit extra perhaps from the local oil. The Allies are now blocking the path up so no more should make it past if they are serious about it. I've sneaked in about 60k more fuel and another 20k more oil through the blockade but lost a bunch of tankers in the process. If other opportunities present themselves even another 50k will help immensely.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Mike Solli)
Post #: 2415
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/29/2013 4:33:45 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		14 - 15 January 1945
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SUBS: I've stopped building anymore midget subs. I thought the new bigger longer range version might prove more effective, but they just get nailed as easily as the previous ones. Lost three this turn.

DEI: A big amphib TF escaped from Saigon and made it unseen to the Malayan coastline where they will move to Singers, then to Batavia to bring the majority of units up to Singapore. I'll make a small bastion there since there is supply and a bit of infantry. I'll get as much supply from Palembang and Medan there as I can before the lanes are closed.

STRAT BOMBING: Nothing for a few days.

RECON: Tokyo it the main target lately.

CHINA/INDOCHINA: My TK loaded with oil make it to Saigon from one hex away but in spite of an order to disband and NOT unload, they begin unloading and are crushed by Fletchers. I double checked this before ending the turn. Not sure what happened. It might not have mattered, but I think unloading in a few days time would have been more prudent. I did get about 1/3 of the total load drops off here, but now I don't know if it will move on before the door is closed. I'll suspend any more shipments until I know there is a window to get the ships through.

Hurts to shepherd four of the five Tonan Whalers into 45 and then lose them like this, but that is Japan at this stage.

A whole bunch of Navy Corsairs sweep Cam Ran and get great results, but then our CAP manages to hit strikes knocking down a good number of Hellcats and Helldivers.

The Allied stack came over on the 14th with no shock and then crushed our brigades, opening the door to block the rail tomorrow with the tanks. All major units that were in movement have passed except for one division. It is able to move in strat on the road system (and did this between Saigon and Cam Ran) so I am hoping it skirts the main stack and moves through. Fingers crossed.

I'm thinking now that Nanning should be the next strong point. I want to block the road to the Chinese troops first. Canton/Hong Kong have about 4k AV between them so can hold pretty well.

LUZON: Another division makes it to Manila, and a big brigade of 250AV is a day out. A second division is heading down from Aparri several days away.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR January 14, 45
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ASW attack near Saigon at 61,72

Japanese Ships
SSX Ha-D-127, hits 7, heavy damage

Allied Ships
DD Walke II
DD Ingersoll
DMS Elliot
DMS Wasmuth
DD Barton II

SSX Ha-D-127 is sighted by escort
DD Barton II attacking submerged sub ....
Underwater explosion, debris and oil appear on surface!
Escort abandons search for sub

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Saigon at 60,71, Range 7,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
E W-19, Shell hits 1
E W-27
E W-34
SC Ch 1
SC Ch 3
TK Kyokuyo Maru
TK Tonan Maru #2
TK Tonan Maru #3, Shell hits 12, heavy fires
AV Canberra Maru, Shell hits 1, on fire
TK Matsushima Maru
TK Munakata Maru, Shell hits 11, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
TK Amato Maru, Shell hits 16, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
TK Palembang Maru, Shell hits 11, heavy fires
TK Ryoei Maru, Shell hits 8, heavy fires

Allied Ships
DD Hudson
DD Ingersoll
DD Richard P. Leary, Shell hits 1
DD Leutze
DMS Wasmuth, Shell hits 1
DMS Macomb
DMS Elliot
DD Walke II
DD Laffey II
DD O' Brien II
DD Ingraham II
DD Barton II

Reduced sighting due to 0% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 0% moonlight: 4,000 yards
Range closes to 28,000 yards...
DD Barton II engages TK Amato Maru at 3,000 yards
Japanese Task Force Manages to Escape
Task forces break off...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TF 127 encounters mine field at Saigon (60,71) - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

143 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
DMS Elliot, Shell hits 3, on fire
DMS Macomb, Shell hits 10, heavy fires, heavy damage
DMS Wasmuth, Shell hits 13, heavy fires, heavy damage

Cape St.Jaques Fortress firing at DMS Elliot
DMS Elliot firing at Cape St.Jaques Fortress
Cape St.Jaques Fortress firing at DMS Wasmuth

18 mines cleared

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Saigon at 60,71, Range 7,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
E W-19
E W-27, Shell hits 1
E W-34, Shell hits 6, on fire
SC Ch 1
SC Ch 3, Shell hits 2
TK Kyokuyo Maru, Shell hits 7, heavy fires
TK Tonan Maru #2, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
AV Canberra Maru, Shell hits 5, on fire
TK Matsushima Maru, Shell hits 4, heavy fires

Allied Ships
DD Hudson
DD Ingersoll
DD Richard P. Leary
DD Leutze, Shell hits 1
DMS Elliot, Shell hits 1
DD Walke II
DD Laffey II
DD O' Brien II

Reduced sighting due to 3% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 3% moonlight: 5,000 yards
Range closes to 28,000 yards...
Japanese Task Force Manages to Escape
Task forces break off...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Saigon at 60,71

Japanese Ships
SSX Ha-D-128, hits 10, heavy damage

Allied Ships
DD Ingersoll
DD Hudson
DMS Elliot
DD O' Brien II

SSX Ha-D-128 is sighted by escort
DD O' Brien II attacking submerged sub ....
Debris floats to surface in area of attack!
Escort abandons search for sub

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Saigon at 60,72

Japanese Ships
SSX Ha-D-129, hits 10, heavy damage

Allied Ships
DD Barton II

SSX Ha-D-129 is sighted by escort
DD Barton II attacking submerged sub ....
Sounds of submarine breaking up detected!
Escort abandons search for sub

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Batangas at 79,78

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 39 NM, estimated altitude 5,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 31

Allied aircraft
Spitfire VIII x 36
P-38L Lightning x 24
P-51D Mustang x 160
F4U-1D Corsair x 24

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 10 destroyed
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 1 destroyed by flak

No Allied losses

Allied Ships
DE Lawrence

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x Ki-43-IIIa Oscar flying as kamikaze
Kamikaze: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Batangas at 79,78

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 148 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 40 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-61-Id Tony x 46

Allied aircraft
Spitfire VIII x 35
P-38L Lightning x 22
P-51D Mustang x 159
F4U-1D Corsair x 24

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-61-Id Tony: 16 destroyed

No Allied losses

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Cam Ranh Bay at 62,73

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 32 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Allied aircraft
F6F-5 Hellcat x 30
SB2C-3 Helldiver x 23

No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
AV Canberra Maru, Bomb hits 6, heavy fires, heavy damage
SC Ch 3, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
SC Ch 1

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x SB2C-3 Helldiver releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 55,59 (near Tavoy)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 59335 troops, 928 guns, 1700 vehicles, Assault Value = 158

Defending force 50719 troops, 696 guns, 414 vehicles, Assault Value = 1405

Japanese adjusted assault: 1

Allied adjusted defense: 8167

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 8167

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3520 casualties reported
Squads: 186 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 7 destroyed, 196 disabled
Engineers: 30 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 32 (23 destroyed, 9 disabled)
Vehicles lost 44 (6 destroyed, 38 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
114 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 10 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Akutan Island (171,49)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 1252 troops, 12 guns, 16 vehicles, Assault Value = 79

Defending force 709 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 24

Allied adjusted assault: 17

Japanese adjusted defense: 25

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 0)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), fatigue(-)
Attacker: leaders(-)

Japanese ground losses:
20 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
35 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Assaulting units:
Rocky Mountain Rger Battalion

Defending units:
53rd Nav Gd /2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR January 15, 45
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Morning Air attack on Cam Ranh Bay , at 64,72

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 35 NM, estimated altitude 35,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 18
Ki-84r Frank x 19
Ki-100-I Tony x 16
Ki-102a Randy x 9
Ki-102b Randy x 27

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 111

Japanese aircraft losses
A7M2 Sam: 4 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 1 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 2 destroyed
Ki-102a Randy: 1 destroyed
Ki-102b Randy: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
21 x F4U-1D Corsair sweeping at 32000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Cam Ranh Bay at 64,72

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 58 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 25 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 10
Ki-84r Frank x 12
Ki-100-I Tony x 9
Ki-102a Randy x 6
Ki-102b Randy x 13

Allied aircraft
Seafire L.III x 1
F6F-3 Hellcat x 139
F6F-5 Hellcat x 98
SB2C-3 Helldiver x 23

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-100-I Tony: 1 destroyed
Ki-102b Randy: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
SB2C-3 Helldiver: 5 destroyed, 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
SC Ch 1

Aircraft Attacking:
10 x SB2C-3 Helldiver releasing from 4000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb
1 x SB2C-3 Helldiver releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb
5 x SB2C-3 Helldiver releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 64,60 (near Vinh)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 116528 troops, 2042 guns, 1610 vehicles, Assault Value = 4887

Defending force 11399 troops, 49 guns, 178 vehicles, Assault Value = 405

Allied adjusted assault: 3400

Japanese adjusted defense: 191

Allied assault odds: 17 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3943 casualties reported
Squads: 221 destroyed, 32 disabled
Non Combat: 140 destroyed, 104 disabled
Engineers: 18 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 20 (16 destroyed, 4 disabled)
Vehicles lost 167 (143 destroyed, 24 disabled)
Units retreated 4
Units destroyed 1

Allied ground losses:
592 casualties reported
Squads: 10 destroyed, 151 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 17 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 70 disabled
Vehicles lost 7 (1 destroyed, 6 disabled)

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Reinforcements: A whole bunch of divisions arrive in Manchuria. whoopee. More restricted units.

Kakegawa-tai arrives at Hamamatsu
Shichisho Kojun-tai arrives at Singapore
121st Division arrives at Keijo
127th Division arrives at Kiamusze
128th Division arrives at Mutankiang
123rd Division arrives at Tsitsihar
80th Ind.Mixed Brigade arrives at Changchun
124th Division arrives at Mishan
126th Division arrives at Mutankiang
77th Ind.Mixed Brigade arrives at Mishan
122nd Division arrives at Kiamusze
78th Ind.Mixed Brigade arrives at Harbin
125th Field Artillery Regiment arrives at Mukden
27th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion arrives at Mukden
E Uku arrives at Tokyo
40th Field AA Battalion arrives at Tokyo

Losses:

Loss of SSX Ha-D-127 on Jan 14, 1945 is admitted
Loss of SSX Ha-D-128 on Jan 14, 1945 is admitted
Loss of SSX Ha-D-129 on Jan 14, 1945 is admitted
Loss of SC Ch 3 on Jan 14, 1945 is admitted
Loss of TK Tonan Maru #2 on Jan 14, 1945 is admitted
Loss of AMc Ichiyo Maru on Nov 01, 1944 is admitted

Ships Sunk:

Previous report of sinking of CL Honolulu incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service
Previous report of sinking of DD Hoel incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

A sad day. There will be many more in the next months.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 10/29/2013 11:52:53 PM >

_____________________________

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Post #: 2416
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/30/2013 3:03:31 PM   
Mike Solli


Posts: 15792
Joined: 10/18/2000
From: the flight deck of the Zuikaku
Status: offline 		Hi obvert. I finally caught up. This is a very interesting view into the late war Japanese debacle. A definite change is needed in the Japanese player's outlook. Scary. It is getting me thinking about possible ways to combat this inevitable outcome to delay things. Possibly building LI in Home Island bases with little or no manpower? I never thought I'd say that. How many would be useful? 1000 LI? If a Japanese player plays the early and mid war properly, he can amass 3 million HI in his pool. But, there's the question of supply. 1000 LI costs a million supply and gets you 1000 supply a day. Will that matter late war? I'm not sure. If you built that 1000 LI by Aug 42, you'd be in the green by the end of 1944. But, you'd be down a million supply too. Not sure it's worth it. What do you think an extra 1000 supply a day would get you now? Just a thought....

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Post #: 2417
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/30/2013 3:08:12 PM   
Mike Solli


Posts: 15792
Joined: 10/18/2000
From: the flight deck of the Zuikaku
Status: offline 		I just did some calculations. If you increase 10 LI per day in the Home Islands starting on 7 Dec 41, you'll have all 1000 built by 16 Mar 42. You will have spent 1 million supply by that time, but those LI will have produced 50,500 supply by then. 21 Oct 44 is the break even point. After that, you produce 1000 supply a day. Is it worth it?

Edit: It'll offset only 500 destroyed HI. Just trying to put it into perspective....

< Message edited by Mike Solli -- 10/30/2013 3:10:03 PM >

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Post #: 2418
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/30/2013 5:56:36 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Hi obvert. I finally caught up. This is a very interesting view into the late war Japanese debacle. A definite change is needed in the Japanese player's outlook. Scary. It is getting me thinking about possible ways to combat this inevitable outcome to delay things. Possibly building LI in Home Island bases with little or no manpower? I never thought I'd say that.


I never thought I'd hear you say that either Mike!

I've been a proponent of increasing LI, but I have not fully committed to it in a PBEM yet. It has to be undertaken from day one and in such numbers as to make it viable if you buy into the traditional view that it takes roughly 3 years to recover the 1000 supply cost of expanding LI by one point. I've been thinking about this idea for a long time now and I think a Japanese player should reconsider expanding LI as a viable option.

So few games make it to the late war, but we are starting to see that supply, not HI is becoming the critical factor. The more I play Japan, the more I realize it's a balancing act. You can initiate any economic strategy you want, but ultimately you are dealing with the fact that Japan's production capacity is finite. Regardless of what you choose to build the resources available to do so are finite. There is only so much fuel and it can produce only so much supply and HI. The only way to produce more supply without consuming more fuel is to expand LI. However, right now that practice is frowned upon because of the supply expenditure and length of time to recoup the initial 1000 invested per point.

Japan is all about stealing from Peter to pay Paul. What if you combine LI expansion with more prudent supply use throughout the Empire. Don't invade Australia, how much supply would that save you? Invest less in aircraft R&D and put that supply into LI expansion instead. Build one less level 9 fort, how much supply would that save? If you choose to play an aggressive Japan, burning lots of supply and fuel in combat operations then expanding LI is not the right decision. Play a prudent Japan and the LI expansion could add substantial supply available for the late game, when it now seems it's needed most. Why expend all that supply and fuel taking Australia when you are going to lose it anyway? What if you invested in LI expansion instead.

How many aircraft can fly on a 1000 extra supply a day? What if you can increase that to 1500 or even 2000 by late 44 or early 45? Playing Japan is all about choices, if you choose to adjust your strategy to account for the expense of LI expansion then I think it's an alternative. It can be effective if combined with any number of production decisions. You just may pay for it differently and not have to wait 3 years to recoup your investment.

I pay early and bank for the end game. I honestly believe LI expansion in some form is viable, it just hasn't been attempted yet to prove it or not.

And before Pax slaps me around. I'm well aware I'm becoming Troll-like on LI expansion.

< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 10/30/2013 8:51:27 PM >

_____________________________

Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

(in reply to Mike Solli)
Post #: 2419
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/30/2013 5:57:49 PM   
Spidery

 

Posts: 1821
Joined: 10/6/2012
From: Hampshire, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

I just did some calculations. If you increase 10 LI per day in the Home Islands starting on 7 Dec 41, you'll have all 1000 built by 16 Mar 42. You will have spent 1 million supply by that time, but those LI will have produced 50,500 supply by then. 21 Oct 44 is the break even point. After that, you produce 1000 supply a day. Is it worth it?


Actually, costs 1.1 million supply because of the expansion as well as the repair cost which means you are in profit about the end of January 1945. Between there and the end of 1945 they produce 330,000 supply. Total at peak production of supply is about 25000 per day so if you can delay the time at which the Allies destroy supply production by 14 days that, initially, seems a better use of the supply.

(in reply to Mike Solli)
Post #: 2420
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/30/2013 10:06:10 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Hi obvert. I finally caught up. This is a very interesting view into the late war Japanese debacle. A definite change is needed in the Japanese player's outlook. Scary. It is getting me thinking about possible ways to combat this inevitable outcome to delay things. Possibly building LI in Home Island bases with little or no manpower? I never thought I'd say that. How many would be useful? 1000 LI? If a Japanese player plays the early and mid war properly, he can amass 3 million HI in his pool. But, there's the question of supply. 1000 LI costs a million supply and gets you 1000 supply a day. Will that matter late war? I'm not sure. If you built that 1000 LI by Aug 42, you'd be in the green by the end of 1944. But, you'd be down a million supply too. Not sure it's worth it. What do you think an extra 1000 supply a day would get you now? Just a thought....

I just did some calculations. If you increase 10 LI per day in the Home Islands starting on 7 Dec 41, you'll have all 1000 built by 16 Mar 42. You will have spent 1 million supply by that time, but those LI will have produced 50,500 supply by then. 21 Oct 44 is the break even point. After that, you produce 1000 supply a day. Is it worth it?

Edit: It'll offset only 500 destroyed HI. Just trying to put it into perspective....


Really interesting thoughts Mike. I increased some LI and some HI in the Home Islands, but if I remember rightly it was only about 100 of each.

I think that extra would be felt, but what difference it would make depends on so many factors including how soon bombing of Tokyo/Osaka starts. Right now I can get by just fine on what I have, I simply can't expand any more engine or airframe factories. I have only a few points of R n D left to repair, and none of the recently damaged factories will be repaired at this point.

The crunch may come soon though as Manchuria supply production slows down due to less fuel. With your plan it might be a good idea to include an increase in Manchuria as well, since it's rarely lost before the Russians get going. I'm getting a whole slew of new divisions right now and I have a decent armaments pool but adding the squads will cost supply. A bunch of new troops are due in the Home Islands as well.

China is also a place where this could be considered as well. Shanghai and distant bases in the North away from strat bombing.

In March Jocke gets another 40 B-29s, so things could get nasty then.

This idea is worth a try, and Joseph and I have thrown it around a bit anticipating this late supply situation. I think the extra 1k a day would be a great addition, but also much more precise night fighter planning and a huge emphasis on flak in Tokyo and Osaka. I could have another 100 NF if I'd built the Ki-45d but now have no engines for it, so it might not happen. I can't afford a change now. It would have been great to see the benefit of NF earlier also to defend the DEI oil and HI. I simply didn't get them pushed forward enough in R n D and thus had very small pools when the first dedicated NF groups arrived. Also there are some IJAAF recon groups that upgrade to NF planes, and some FB groups that do as well, so I could have had them much earlier and in numbers.


_____________________________

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Post #: 2421
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/30/2013 10:25:47 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Hi obvert. I finally caught up. This is a very interesting view into the late war Japanese debacle. A definite change is needed in the Japanese player's outlook. Scary. It is getting me thinking about possible ways to combat this inevitable outcome to delay things. Possibly building LI in Home Island bases with little or no manpower? I never thought I'd say that.


I never thought I'd hear you say that either Mike!

I've been a proponent of increasing LI, but I have not fully committed to it in a PBEM yet. It has to be undertaken from day one and in such numbers as to make it viable if you buy into the traditional view that it takes roughly 3 years to recover the 1000 supply cost of expanding LI by one point. I've been thinking about this idea for a long time now and I think a Japanese player should reconsider expanding LI as a viable option.

So few games make it to the late war, but we are starting to see that supply, not HI is becoming the critical factor. The more I play Japan, the more I realize it's a balancing act. You can initiate any economic strategy you want, but ultimately you are dealing with the fact that Japan's production capacity is finite. Regardless of what you choose to build the resources available to do so are finite. There is only so much fuel and it can produce only so much supply and HI. The only way to produce more supply without consuming more fuel is to expand LI. However, right now that practice is frowned upon because of the supply expenditure and length of time to recoup the initial 1000 invested per point.

Japan is all about stealing from Peter to pay Paul. What if you combine LI expansion with more prudent supply use throughout the Empire. Don't invade Australia, how much supply would that save you? Invest less in aircraft R&D and put that supply into LI expansion instead. Build one less level 9 fort, how much supply would that save? If you choose to play an aggressive Japan, burning lots of supply and fuel in combat operations then expanding LI is not the right decision. Play a prudent Japan and the LI expansion could add substantial supply available for the late game, when it now seems it's needed most. Why expend all that supply and fuel taking Australia when you are going to lose it anyway? What if you invested in LI expansion instead.

How many aircraft can fly on a 1000 extra supply a day? What if you can increase that to 1500 or even 2000 by late 44 or early 45? Playing Japan is all about choices, if you choose to adjust your strategy to account for the expense of LI expansion then I think it's an alternative. It can be effective if combined with any number of production decisions. You just may pay for it differently and not have to wait 3 years to recoup your investment.

I pay early and bank for the end game. I honestly believe LI expansion in some form is viable, it just hasn't been attempted yet to prove it or not.

And before Pax slaps me around. I'm well aware I'm becoming Troll-like on LI expansion.


It's a tough balance all around, and some places, like West OZ, can add months or half a year to the Allied timetable. That is worth the cost for me, and should me an aggregate supply gain. If you manage Perth as well, that produces supply and HI, so it could make up losses if held for a while.

The other concern is where your resources come from. Expanding LI will mean a lot more need to be imported, meaning more fuel consumption unless a player is very careful about always hauling both ways, filling up in fuel or resources for every return trip.



< Message edited by obvert -- 10/30/2013 10:31:39 PM >

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Post #: 2422
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/30/2013 10:35:02 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Spidery


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

I just did some calculations. If you increase 10 LI per day in the Home Islands starting on 7 Dec 41, you'll have all 1000 built by 16 Mar 42. You will have spent 1 million supply by that time, but those LI will have produced 50,500 supply by then. 21 Oct 44 is the break even point. After that, you produce 1000 supply a day. Is it worth it?


Actually, costs 1.1 million supply because of the expansion as well as the repair cost which means you are in profit about the end of January 1945. Between there and the end of 1945 they produce 330,000 supply. Total at peak production of supply is about 25000 per day so if you can delay the time at which the Allies destroy supply production by 14 days that, initially, seems a better use of the supply.



Interesting thought! Delay is the key word, but the extra you haven't yet made up completely may not really add to your ability to hold the Allies back. I know that could be extra forts, and they take time, but it again is a crap shoot as to how the Allies will come at you and when they'll get in range of the Home Islands.

_____________________________

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Post #: 2423
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/30/2013 10:46:41 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline 		There are so many ways to justify whether or not to expand LI. Until someone tries it we just don't know the long term net cost/benefit/loss.

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Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2424
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/30/2013 10:50:28 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

There are so many ways to justify whether or not to expand LI. Until someone tries it we just don't know the long term net cost/benefit/loss.


And even then we won't know for years!

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Post #: 2425
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/30/2013 11:07:07 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline 		Another factor would be the intensity and frequency of ground combat. In your game it is going up and that will drain away your surplus quicker than you will like.

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Post #: 2426
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/30/2013 11:16:30 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Spidery

Actually, costs 1.1 million supply because of the expansion as well as the repair cost which means you are in profit about the end of January 1945. Between there and the end of 1945 they produce 330,000 supply. Total at peak production of supply is about 25000 per day so if you can delay the time at which the Allies destroy supply production by 14 days that, initially, seems a better use of the supply.


Interesting thought! Delay is the key word, but the extra you haven't yet made up completely may not really add to your ability to hold the Allies back. I know that could be extra forts, and they take time, but it again is a crap shoot as to how the Allies will come at you and when they'll get in range of the Home Islands.


This is kind of my point. The Allies have to play ball and do what you want them to for your delay to be a factor. What if they simply bypass it and hit you where you don't expect it and you don't delay them at all? Couldn't that be an epic waste of supply? I get the Perth example, but other than the HI which is pooled, the supply is most likely used to supply your Australian troops or build forts, it's not going to be available directly at Japan for the end game unless you ship it there. Sure, it saved you having to ship it out from the Home Islands to maintain your troops in the field, but when you lose Perth you haven't actually increased your supply capacity for the Home Islands at all. Build the equivalent of Perth's supply generating capacity in Manchuria and physically ship it to Japan and then I think you are ahead of the curve and reaping the benefits of more supply exactly where you need it for the late game.

Also, expanding LI doesn't mean you don't receive the benefits from expanding only after 3 years. You recoup 1/3 supply used each year, so that could then be invested back into factory expansion or fort building leading up to when you are now in the green. Would you rather be building forts in late 44 or simply using the supply to fly aircraft and keep your combat troops in fighting form already fighting behind level 6 or higher forts? Do you want to be expanding factories in 44/45 while they're being bombed and needing repair at the same time, or simply repairing your already expanded ones with the extra supply you gained from your 3 year investment?

I choose to pay the high supply cost on expansion early when I don't need the supply, rather than wish I could generate more when it's already too late. Again, I'm a conservative player with Japan and time will tell whether not expanding the perimeter to delay the Allies was a mistake or not. Regardless, if I expand LI and it only generates an extra 1000 supply/day by 45 how is that a bad thing? It's a 1000 times more than I would have had otherwise.

There's two ways to look at this in my view.

Another thought. I could possibly delay the Allies taking a key base for 14 days with KB alone, no forts, no large commitment of troops and zero supply use, yet I might have gained 1000k/day of supply for two weeks in 45 because of it. Like I said, there's more ways to look at using/saving supply then the obvious.

< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 10/30/2013 11:54:03 PM >

_____________________________

Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

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Post #: 2427
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/31/2013 12:09:24 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Another factor would be the intensity and frequency of ground combat. In your game it is going up and that will drain away your surplus quicker than you will like.


This is a great point. Ground combat is of course inevitable and any DA with the kind of forces we're using now will cost 5-10k supply.

All of this is modeled well, as unless the Japanese really take it to the Allies early, get a 'rader feedback loop' going using Indian HI/suppy production, then there will be supply problems. A good Allied player will put pressure on the problem in multiple ways. But without the political component they've got little to lose playing the beta and without stacking limits. It's tough to get the kind of spectacular LBA hits on late war invasions when everything is coming in little pieces and hitting a 600 Corsair CAP.

With the beta I think the possibility of getting into 46 has lessened significantly. With a DBB mod like what GJ-Qball are using, it might be next to impossible.

That said, there is still lime left to affect timelines, so we'll see.

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Post #: 2428
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/31/2013 12:11:16 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon


Another thought. I could possibly delay the Allies taking a key base for 14 days with KB alone, no forts, no large commitment of troops and zero supply use, yet I might have gained 1000k/day of supply for two weeks in 45 because of it. Like I said, there's more ways to look at using/saving supply then the obvious.


This was my strategy early for almost a year. The problem is that it takes fuel!

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Post #: 2429
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 10/31/2013 1:50:15 AM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

This was my strategy early for almost a year. The problem is that it takes fuel!


But you offset that with the supply you generate from your LI expansion which doesn't require fuel.

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Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

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