yvesp
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Part I: up to the start of 1942.
The weather is clear. The Poles are annoying. They refuse to cede Dantzig. How dare they ? Time to declare war on them. It is yet unclear that this small move, coming after the peaceful annexations of Austria and Tchecoslovakia, would slowly ignite the world just like a match lights the fire in a chimney, small, then roaring...
Italy stands in the expectation. Mussolini doesn't feel ready for war. Actually,will he ever, with his small army and air force, and a military production that pales even against that of France.
Japan is mired in China. Peace would be a welcome option now that most of the productive parts are under control. But the Chine don't seem to want it. Anyway, there are some who always want a little more in the high command. That's why, even before Hitler declared war, the Japanese high command decided to load an invasion force in the direction of Vladivostok. Yamamoto was included, against his own advice that all this would end up badly, even if the Russian could be beaten to peace. Likely, this was going to open up yet another front, while the army was still stretched thin again the hopeful incompetent Chinese.
The first days of the German war against Poland goes very well, despite some erros by the high command. The southern border was left unprotected, leaving Bratislava and Vienna, as well as most of the oil resources within range of a move from Katovice. Hopefully, the luftwaffe could close the roads, and everything went well. The small Polish fleet was damaged in port, and Lödz and Poznan fell like ripe fruit. The wermacht was unscathed.
Curiously, the British declared war, followed in that by the French. That was a surprise that these cowards finally decided to move! The first sign was a little show by the royal air force, that maimed the brand new amphibious transport in the port of Kiel. Hitler was bound to ask question about why the navy was so exposed with so little defense! But he would be more than furious that Berlin was bombed, which led to some delay in production. Essen and Hamburg were also targeted, but the bombs fell without serious harm. There would be retaliation !
Their next move was to disembark some troops in France. But intelligence had it that the British belly, the Bay of Biscay, was left unprotected. Actually, the allies had left all lanes open. How could they be so sure that Italy wouldn't follow their ally ?
The weather turned unexpectedly sour. Suddenly, all plans were delayed, possibly definitely canceled. The Russian had been leaving their mountains open to concentrate their forces in Vladivostok (who is the traitor ?) With bad weather, a chancy operation would turn out as pure disaster. The Japanese high command canceled the attack at the last minutes, and finally, Yamamoto headed in the direction of Canton, and more generally the soft belly in South China. That pleased him well, as he had been advocating such a move for long, as a way to shorten the front. The German who had been halfheartedly thinking about sending their fleet in the North Sea were relieved to be deprived of that choice. Finishing of Poland would be trouble enough in mud! Except in Poland, this would be a lost week.
And indeed, an heroic defense of Warsaw fully spoiled the first attack, which the German did launch, afraid to lose too much time in Poland and not be ready on the French border in the wake of spring 40.
The allies seemed frozen and unable to decide any significant action while that bad weather lasted. But this was just a temporary setback. The sun came back again, letting the german armies finally conquer Warsaw. On the Chinese front, an attack west of Nanchang to claim the mountain range succeeded, but at a cost that made it look like a Pyrrhus victory.
Finally, October came to its end without any significant military event, excepting the loss of some merchant shipping in the Bay of Biscay. The Brits nonchalance was being paid back... The Russian dance around Vladivostok had also distracted them, and they were not able to fulfill their own part of the bargain they had with the German. Hitler happily swallowed the whole of Poland, knowing well that this would be a severe blow to the Russians later, when he would attack them.
Still, the weather didn't seem to know how to settle itself, and an Indian summer seemed to be settling over most of the northern hemisphere. But the axis powers did not really know what to do with it. On the western front, the werhmacht was slowly shifting to the west. On the Chinese front, no Japanese offensive seemed yet possible ; Yamamoto was barely in position, and weeks before he could be used efficiently, and the front line was stretched to the maximum. However, a surprise Chinese offensive against all odds suddenly forced to abandon all positions and materials, radicaly changing the whole situation, with the whole Japanese army deprived of serious supply. The Japanese reply was radical. First, Terauchi was recalled from Mandchouria,leaving there but a token force, enough to face a possible but unlikely Soviet attack. More importantly, Yamamoto progressed fast in the South, threatening Kweilin and Hengyang after a bloody assault in the mountains that leaved but a small Chinese cavalry force to cover the whole area. Indeed, think looked bleak. Meanwhile, the German advanced into Denmark in order to secure the Baltic sea. Copenhagen was soon under Axis control. The US newspapers were flaming, but did it really matter ?
January and February were mostly uneventful, thanks to the awful weather and also that the German units were still repositionning themselves, while most of the Chinese front was exhausted. There was some activity in Southern China, and Kweilin fell under Japanese control after some heavy fighting,which once again cost dearly to the Japanese. There would likely not be much action in China in the coming weeks. What would happen would mostly depend on the speed at which reinforcements would get to the front. At the end of February, despite the raining weather, Hitler decided to attack Belgium. Pleas from the Japanese government,and well understood self interest had convinced him that letting Netherlands alone was a good strategy. However, this would somewhat complicate the overrun of Belgium,and better was to start soon. With luck,the wehrmacht would be on the French border by the end of the month !
This what somewhat optimistic,and the end of the month was awful. On the one hand, the rain was that bad that the armies barely met at Brussels. There was fightingof course, but quite indecisive, at very little loss to both sides. This let the French time enough to secure the Maas,and the British to send reinforcements in Antwerpen. A sortie by the Kriegmarine to punish the British was attempted, and the fleets almost met. But the bad weather decided otherwise. Still, Hitler was confident that his army would soon break this opposition.
The raging storms seemed to have given rise to hordes of partisans. Bombay was said to be under their control, but it was sure that Katowice was too. This prevented some of the coal from the place from reaching the German factories. But the worse had happened in China and Korea, with Canton and Haichow occupied. Ships were forced to leave with precipitation, and worse, a whole squadron of G3M2 was destroyed. Not to mention that Seoul was also the prey of uncontrolled armed groups. The combat losses against the Chinese were child game compared with the havoc this would cause in the imperial army ! Furthermore,things looked bleak in the north,where the barely known warlord Mao was assembling a large force. No shot had been heard yet, but Taiyuan was halfway surrounded,and their was scarce reinforcements to send ! If the city fell,it would be very hard to recapture it,so far inland it was !
To add to these bad news, the US government let it be known wide and far that the international situation warranted more attention, and that in consequence a large part of their fleet would leave Oakland for Honolulu. The Japanese were stricken by the news, which did not seem to bother Hitler any more that that.
Neutral powers were pondering the situation. The Russian felt ambivalent. The size of the German army was impressive, and their capture of Poland masterful. Hopefully, the French were said to have the best army in the world. Was it a good time to strike Japan,which was certainly quite vulnerable, given the latest news ? As for Italy, how useful would it be to declare war on France and the Commonwealth ? The merchant fleets that passed through the Mediterranean were tempting targets. But what after that ? Mussolini was reluctant : his only military asset, the fleet, was dwarved by the combined forces of the French and British fleet in Oran, Gibraltar and Suez.
In march, the weather was not improving. Most planes were ground down. This was not helping neither Germany, which needed clear weather for a serious offensive including the devastating Stukas, nor Japan, whose forces were being severely strained and which,at the very least,absolutely needed to reconquer the coastal cities lost to uncontrolled elements. Japan had called emergency reserves of militia in order to fill up the wide gaps that were now obvious in their lines. Forces in South China were out of supply,as were those in Mandchouria and Northern China. In central China, they were pinned by the bulk of the Chinese army, and the weather prevented any serious move. April did not see any better weather,and overall these were two months lost. Well, not lost for everybody,as Chinese partisans seemed to gather more force ! They now were controlling crucial war resources that would go missing in the factories. As a matter of fact, these last four months had seen a large development of partisan forces,none of which had yet been put under control. Even in Katowice, the weather had stopped the German troops at the doors of the city, but no action had been taken. Surely, this would change with the coming of the sun. For the Japanese,the situation was critical : now, partisan activity accounted for the loss of the equivalent of one mechanized army corp, so said the economists. This was a disaster : the economy could now build no more than two infantry corps using purely Japanese controlled resources !
On the political side,the US had decided that it was about time that China were able to receive some help, in the form of resources. Britain had been pressing to send oil from Burma. Furthermore, it was also decided that the US would send in some troops to secure Greenland and Iceland.
Germany reduced the output of the factories in order to store much needed oil, that would be required in the coming summer. Even the fleet had been deprived of fuel after it's last unsuccessful sortie. It was sitting idle and impotent in Kiel. Hopefully,the allies would not notice ! The Japanese were extremely cautious on that part. While they couldn't afford,in the current military situation, not to use the last drop of oil for production, their planes and ships stayed sitting. This bode bad for the future. This was also a reason why Italy didn't want to press on their entry in the war. Their fleet could sortie once, and then what ?
Winter seemed to drag on even in May, with almost unheard of hurricanes about everywhere possible. No plane could take off. Obviously, the start of the month would again see little to no action ! This lasted till the beginning of June. In the meantime,crack units from Britain had been sent in defense of Brussels.
As soon as the sun at last decided to shine, Mao launched his long expected attack on Taiyuan,which was capture at little cost. This laid bare the whole northern area. The japanese were now totally reacting to the flow of events, and nowhere able to plan anything. Events drove them.
Hitler soon followed with a two pronged attack on Brussels and Metz. What Maginot line ? He had the full support of the luftwaffe in both cases, but the allies put off a good air defense. Some bombers were destroyed,but the Belgium air squadron and a French air squadron were also destroyed. The British mechanized and infantry corps did not hold against the might of the German forces, which rolled quite proudly through the streets,ready to engage in a followup attack. In Metz, the assault was somewhat more costly, but even Hitler was satisfied. Overall, it was estimated that the German army had inflicted more than twice their received losses. And if,at last,the weather stood steady, the next weeks could be devastating.
The following weeks saw some combat, and the German troops pushed the French behind the border. Meanwhile, Mao was exploiting his victory and dispersed his troops to capture Paotling and Tsinan. The bad news was that the rail connection between China and Manchuria was cut off. The good news was that the communist forces were now spread between three cities and now mostly harmless. They were also closer to the sea, and it should be possible to drive them back again. Still,what a loss of time ! Especially since, while Canton had at last been recaptured, Shanghai had been lost to wandering partisans... Japanese reserve troops were warily and slowly backing from the Soviet border : reinforcements were badly in need elsewhere. Would the Russians attack ? The Japanese high command did not think so. But clearly, that retreat would clear the pressure of the Russian back, and possibly let them reinforce on the west front.
Needless to say, neither the Chinese (Chiang Kai Chek) , nor the Japanese, felt any use to take risk in the center of China, where both armies were watching each other without moving.
The end of June saw an incredibly bold attack from the Wehrmacht which attempted to pierce the French defenses south east of Lille using, for the first time in history, paratroopers. If the attack has succeeded, six armies (of which two Hqs) would have found themselves isolated. But thanks to Pretelat,the attack was repulsed and the line hold. The German paratroopers paid dearly, by the line was severely weakened and would not hold against a second attack.
The last week of June saw a return of winter, which the allies put to good use to reform their lines, certain that no attack would be forthcoming.
As it had been expected, partisan activity was suppressed almost everywhere, but a remnant fleeing the chase that had settled in Shanghai. The partisan activity in Northern China was not a concern any more : the whole area was anyway under the Communists control !
In the meanwhile, the USA were not very happy. Despite the fact that there had not been any maritime warfare for months now, the government decided that it would be fair to help any merchant ship that would be under attack within range of their coast. The Germans were not fooled ! Despite its seemingly neutral wording, this law really targeted the German interests. This was unfair from a so-called neutral power ! However, they did not react when the Japanese called for the end of the British involvement in the war, by the way of resources and, more importantly, oil. Maybe were they worried by the progress of the communists in the north ?
Anyway, the sudden surrender of the Belgian army and subsequent flight of the king to London left the French feeling quite alone. Thelines were getting stretched thin, and supplies were coming scarce ! Oil, in particular,was missing after the previous month of heavy fight.
At the start of July, the Japanese launched an assault on Paoting using fresh troops. Despite a large superiority and heavy air support, the attack was a total failure. The defending army corp was indeed destroyed, but all three attacking army corps were also destroyed, preventing any use of the « victory ». Indeed,this left the road to Peking wide open. Hopefully, enemy forces were still hundres of kilometers away. The Japanese Imperial Command was at a loss as to how to tackle these pesky Chinese. What had gone wrong ? How was it possible to recover from the current situation ? One year ago, China seemed secure under their heels ; today, it was on the verge of collapsing !
On the west front, Hitler did not meet such troubles. Pretelat was sent back to his studies, and the German forces were lined up against the border, facing poorly trained and equipped troops. The French now had no reserve left after the attacks of the previous months. It seemed almost certain that the front would collapse soon. And indeed, in the following week, the German army attempted both the capture of Lille, and an attack west of Metz, through the Ardennes. The first was mostly a failure, the French holding well ; however, the second attack did cut clear through the lines, enveloping the units in the Maginot line. In France,things looked worse and worse. After destroying an artillery division,the Germans filled up the gap, then attacked west,heading in the direction of Paris. Billotte and an armored corps were destroyed. In northern France,a second attack was launched, this time heading directly in the direction of Paris. It met with full success : a German armored corps was reaching the gates of the now undefended city ; worse : no French army could reach the city in time ! The French front had ceased to exist any more.
Even though his Japanese allies were not doing well,or so said the news, Hitler was happy. He would probably be on time to attack Russia, which was reinforcing their defenses at a slow, too slow pace. Kicking them would be a child's game. From the beginning of July, his troops had destroyed two army groups, five army corps, two support division and a fighter squadron. He had lost two divisions and an obsolete bomber squadron. Their was no way the French economy would recover in time !
On the East front, the Japanese reported some progress near Wuhan. But this did not help in any way the overall strategic situation !
By the end of August, the whole of France laid open to the Wehrmacht. The remnants of the French army were hidden in the Maginot line, or along the Channel. This left Hitler with a choice : did he conquer the whole of France ? Or did he accept the pleas of the French government begging for peace ?
As for the Japanese, despite their small victories in the center of China, the situation was worsening. More of these partisan were appearing every month. Now, only one port stayed open : Shanghai. Northern China could be considered lost. And large retreat from China was now a clear possibility. Even Haïnan was now being threatened. Of course, it would be easy to retake it, but this was not the way this war was supposed to go ! And to add to the misery, the USA were now reducing their input to the economy ! The plans that some had dreamed about of going and attack the USA were simply not going to happen ! All the resources were eaten by the land war, in army corps emergency production.
Hitler settled on a solution that partitioned France. Conquering France would have taken one month more at last, possibly more if the troops in the alps held well enough. And there was also the French fleet to think about. Mussolini was adamant that he wouldn't face both the French and British fleet ! There was little to gain, and much to lose : coming late on the east front could be paid dearly later. Some of his generals had entertained the idea of debarking in England. They were fools : holding an army there would be a gamble he did not feel like taking. The Japanese had too much gambled,and see ! War was not for the imprudent. On the 18 of August, a French unknown military commander, De Gaule, called for pursuing the war from the colonies. He was barely heard, but still, most of west Africa seemed to listen to him, and some vague territories such as new Caledonia. This was annoying since a large part of the French cruisers had fled there. So much for trying to render the French fleet useless... Well, in any case, the French would be out of the picture: they were now irrelevant.
Stalin was left pondering in his office. Things had not gone as planned. There was a good chance that Hitler would turn against him even though hecould not believe it. Still,it was good policy to put troops at the border. He had refrained, against all his urges, to claim so land in Finland and Bessarabia : He felt he needed friends more than ever ! Enemies were everywhere all around. Some years ago,he had to get rid of Toukhatchevski. Everywhere, spies, everywhere enemies. He would strike later, but on his own schedule.
Winter came soon that year. September was awful. This was not good: troops were slowly getting to the east front, and there was little to do to disrupt the British merchant shipping. Mussolini declined to enter the war after seeing that all British merchant ships had evacuated the Mediterranean before he could make his mind. There was not even a ship to be seen, military or civilian! This would lead the German off his back, and he would now prepare for his own war : the conquest of Yugoslavia. Not now, next summer, if by luck he was ready then...
In China, stalemate was in order. Japan took the opportunity of France fall to claim Indochina : that would be one more resource more or less out of reach of the pesky Chinese ! The US took offense though,and the US senate bruised of angry senators requesting an increase of the military budget. They were heard, and more than a little ! In no time, the budget doubled. It was clear that the USA would not remain weak for long.
Meanwhile, Hitler had taken the opportunity of the conquest of France to re base the whole fleet in Brest. Later,it would go to Bordeaux. Despite the entire British fleet,it succeeded in running around England unscathed. It also failed to engage any merchant ships,the real target ! But that would come later too. He also redeployed his fighters, tired that he was to see the British bombers fly over the German skies unchallenged.
All of a sudden, the situation was becoming more complicated for the British. Fleets would have to sortie more often, and still be unsure that a severe blow could not be dealt.
At the beginning of October, the first Japanese mechanized corps successfully counterattacked the communists near Peking,who had miserably failed to capture the city, regaining some ground and cutting some communication lines. The Japanese lines were still quite weak, but such a victory was to celebrate ! The latest additions to the army were beginning to pay off, and the Japanese saw at last a possibility to recover some ground. But it was good not to claim victory too soon... This was especially true, because the little victories on land more or less offset by the slow economic withdrawal of the USA: the war machine turned at about the same speed than more than a year ago, for lack of resources.
Most of the 1940 winter was uneventful, with the Japanese licking their wounds, the Germans moving their army east, the Russians moving their armies west, and the allies generally shunning combat. Their was some, but so little, submarine action in the Atlantic, but the result was generally considered unsatisfying by Hitler. What seemed sure was that this would not last. Everybody was building up for a great confrontation,and nobody seemed ready. Even Hitler, who had entertained the idea of attacking Russia in spring 1941 now seemed uncertain. Reports were that the Russian army was strong enough to hold off a first attack. And everything depended on being able to crack through the Russian lines within the first week or so of combat. The good news that was while occupied west, the Russian did not seem to be any threat in the east, and that just fit the Japanese: both countries where slowly and reluctantly demilitarizing the common border, for the urgent need of said armies elsewhere.
In March and April,the major military action was a bloody counterattack by the Japanese to recapture Haïnan, with the support of the Kaga and the Kirishima, but which failed despite an overwhelming superiority, and cost to army corps to the imperial army. The defending militia was nevertheless destroyed,and the island would soon be again under Japanese control. Nevertheless, Tojo was not amused. The other noteworthy event was an attack on Brest by hordes of British airplanes,led by two carriers. The two defending fighter squadron managed to destroy an English spitfire squadron, and then repulsed three waves of bombers. They were however powerless in stopping the three naval bombers squadrons from delivering their bombs. The AA repulsed half of them, but could not prevent the rest from bottoming the Bismark. This did not much bother Hitler, who saw the fleet as auxiliary to his strategy. Still, frustrated by his relative weakness on the east front which still prevented him from attacking the USSR, he decided in the beginning of June to launch a vast naval attack on the relatively unprotected British merchant ships. This time he met some some success, but this would have to be repeated to bear some fruits. Meanwhile, Mussolini declared war on Yugoslavia. Around the world, military analysts wondered about how fast he would be kicked back.
In northern China, after a year bringing reinforcements, the Japanese army started its summer offensive, and the first attack led by the mechanized corps met with full success, breaking the Chinese line and isolating some units.
While the German lines were forming east, the Italians slowly and astutely infiltrated their troops in Yugoslavia, avoiding all combat. West of Gibraltar, the Ark Royal helped by a Sunderland found the German navy. The weather was poor, and the planes were not seen before they were already on their targets. The german did not even have time to fire their anti-anti aircraft weaponry. The Deutschland and the Graf Spee were sunk. The rest of the fleet fled an unequal combat. It was good that the second British fleet in the Bay of Biscay failed to intercept the fleeing vessels: the whole German fleet could then have been destroyed. Nevertheless, the British were happy: the three strongest German ships were out of the way. This mostly left the submarine threat, which was not to be underestimated! On his part, Hitler was most unhappy. The fleet was not going to be used again anytime soon! Only the subs could be of any service.
The Japanese offensive seemed at last to be on the right track when the offensive on Paoting met with total success, grinding the communist lines. The Japanese were now clearly dominant in the area. The communist units suddenly risked being eaten one after the other unless some action was taken. People in Paoting were severely punished for having been too complacent ; the news was reported all over the world. By the end of June, the communists had retreated 200km to seek refuge into the mountains.
Anyway ; the US were obviously more than annoyed by the events.Was it the advance in Yugoslavia ? Was it the behavior of the Japanese troops ? In any case,the congress passed a new law to increase military spendings. The american military production was now believed to exceed that of Germany. Hitler was not fazed. However,he was now pressing Mussolini to enter the war. Planes were needed. He proposed the exchange of some resources, among them oil, for a more significant Italian help against the Commonwealth. Mussolini did not feel necessary to bow to Hitler's wishes! He would not consider entering the war until his own agenda was fulfilled: Yougoslavia, then Greece ; possibly Bulgaria. Were was his interest in placing his soft belly in front of the British guns?
In the beginning of July, the Italian launched a very successful attack to open a path in the direction of Zagreb. Well, Belgrade was still far away! Meanwhile, Hitler being blocked on the East front by the generalized unwillingness of his generals to attack the USSR under the current conditions, decided to use the remnants of his fleet. Once more, the British suffered some casualties, this time along the Canadian coast. But the Ark Royal was certainly the most lucky carrier on earth! Pursuing the German fleet which was seen sailing, it found a part of it in the middle of the Atlantic. It was helped by two Sunderland flying boats. As a result, the Admiral Hipper and the Königsberg were sunk, while the Blücher decided to leave the area as fast as it could. It left for Kiel, the area west of France being now too risky. A week later, the small German force running along the American coast was found by a group of six light cruisers. The resulting combat was generally thought as a Commonwealth victory, the Leipzig and Karlsruhe being damaged, the Köln being forced to flee. However, the British also had a damaged cruiser,and two forced back to Hamilton. The real victory came from the fabled Ark Royal,still celebrating from its victory, and which spotted the retreat of the Köln. It was sunk unceremoniously. Doing so, it let go the two damaged ships that were behind. Unfortunately for them, they were spotted later by a squadron of Beaufort and another of Swordfish while approaching France. They were given no chance and were sunk in view of the coast. A German submarine pack was incidentally caught during the fight ; some were sunk and the other retreated back to La Rochelle. Hitler said that was the best use for the fleet, occupying the British while he reinforced his home air defense.And indeed,no British planes had flown for months above Germany. He did not even blame the Italians for their lack of help: indeed, there was little they could do to help, with their fleet closed in the Mediterranean.
In China, the Japanese were continuing their offensive. The imperial army rolled through Tsinan then Chengchow at heavy Chinese loss; the capture of that city even opened a large avenue behind the communist lines: Tungkwan was within range, undefended, as well as the valley leading to Taiyuan. Unless the communists reacted soon, they risked being totally encircled. Soon, Nanjiang was captured, and Japanese troops were bordering Tungkwan. The communist troops, so proud two months before, were routed. They still held parts of the mountains, but they were now unable to face the Japanese. The bad news came then, when the USA suspended all trade and forced the Netherland to do the same. Obviously, war was forthcoming, but the Japanese did not feel ready. They sorely missed oil, and while the fleet was imposing, it had barely improved in two years.
As summer passed away,the Japanese made again some progress in the South. Nanning risked being surrounded,and there was little help coming. The Japanese asked no more then this : there was nothing to gain further, the city was far enough from other Chinese cities not to be attacked without some serious logistical help. And it was a choke point that,in tandem with Kweilin, closed the access to the Kwantung. Soon, the first infantry corps was advanced enough that it could capture eiter Sian or Ankang. Both were bad news. Worse : Ankang could not be protected if th Japanese chose to capture it. Of course, that advanced unit would soon be isolated, but letting it loose in the rear lines was disturbing, to say the least.
All the while, Italian units were continuing their infiltration through the Yougoslav lines, shuning all combat. Hitler was still massing an impressive army on the Russian border. He was fuming against his uncompetent generals who all refused to enter war under the present conditions. He could not send them all to camps, could he ? The only good news he heard from them was that the army would likely be ready soon. Soon ? In the midst of winter ? They were crazy.
The Japanese used the long lasting summer to pursue their land offensive in the North. Sian had been protected by an army corps, but this move had weakened the defenses of Tungkwan which was soon under Japanese heels. Mao had been sent back to his military studies. The north front was crumbling to dust ; The undefended Yenan was threatened ; Sian could not hold long. The only significant resistance laid around Taiyuan, a strategically worthless spot from which there was no escape! The central front was being attacked from the north, now wide open. The Chinese loss from the beginning of September amounted to 6 months of production: needless to say that the current campaign surpassed the wildest dreams of the high command. Tojo was confirmed at his post, and Yamashita, who had driven most of the campaign,received the highest praises. The Chinese were laying prayers for the coming of winter to put an end to this slaughter.
In the USA, talk of war were now heard. It was hard to tell when this would happen, and even harder to guess whom it would concern. Italy was targeted because of its war against Yugoslavia and the need to help a small country. Japan was targeted because of its recent military successes, and that the Chinese needed help badly. Germany was targeted because the fall of France was not seen with kindness, even though their was strong confidence that the Commonwealth could deal with Germany if given enough time: it's economy was running stronger than Germany's according to military analysts, and it ran no risk of being conquered given the latest naval victories; even the submarines failed to dent seriously at its economy. Only the Japanese felt really annoyed. It was well known that the USA were laying down a large fleet, and this could only target them. It was also widely believed that the USA land forces were unable to carry on any serious action.
The summer lasted till November, but the Japanese did not progress much. They took time to encircle Sian which had been reinforced by the unit that was training there and which was called to duty. The Italian still crawled in the direction of Belgrade, bypassing a well defended Zagreb. A Hitler was impatiently waiting his generals to make up their mind. He did not understand all this mambo-jumbo about the neutrality pact and that it could not be broken at will. He had a full row of armored corps stacked with army corps and bombers waiting to flow through Russia. True, while he had been reinforcing, so had the Soviets,who were now building up a second line behind the first. This would slow down the panzers! He had tried to negotiate the entry of the Wehrmacht into the Baltic states to widen the war front, but even though friendly, they had declined. In Rumania, the same rebuttal had occurred. On the west front, nothing much happened. The occasional bomber showed over Germany, while the occasional submarine would sink some ships. Just to remind everybody that there still was war between Germany and Great-Britain.
It was snowing all over Europe when the Ribbentrop finally announced that it was now possible to go to war. The generals who were present said that may be the weather... Hitler had a cold stare at his staff and walked out without a word. Everybody left the meeting scared.
On the other side of the planet, the Japanese were now seriously considering to go to war with the Netherlands. They badly needed the oil, and the Commonwealth would be much better without. This would piss off the USA, but even a few month of gurgling oil could change things. But this was not going to be done immediately. In particular, the marines had first to be recalled from their operations in China, were they were not really needed now: there were too few troops for the capture of Nanning, but too many if the posture on that front was defensive. The best was to force the Chinese to reinforce elsewhere.
Al the while, chancelleries all over the world scan every word from the congress. Talks of war are flying around, but it is unclear whether and when this could happen. The target was still not clear, everybody having his own priority. The bets were fifty-fifty between Japan and Germany. But in January, a senator insisted on a vote for a declaration of war against Italy! It was of course repelled, but Mussolini felt the heat. It was time to come to an end with that Yugoslavian war! Hopefully, troops were now close to Belgrade. Anyway, talks were abundant in the chancelleries about that curious move!
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