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RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/8/2014 8:14:53 PM   
gregb41352

 

Posts: 198
Joined: 10/5/2013
Status: offline 		No. The Chinese know that the US will defend Taiwan. No question.

(in reply to jdkbph)
Post #: 181
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/8/2014 8:16:59 PM   
gregb41352

 

Posts: 198
Joined: 10/5/2013
Status: offline 		This one: USS Truxton [DDG 103]


One of these, perhaps?
Destroyer Squadron 22
USS Cole [DDG 67]
USS Mahan [DDG 72]
USS McFaul [DDG 74]
USS Mason [DDG 87]
USS Nitze [DDG 94]
USS Truxton [DDG 103]
USS Elrod [FFG 55]

USS Leyte Gulf [CG 55]
USS Philippine Sea [CG 58]
USS Anzio [CG 68]

(in reply to RoryAndersonCDT)
Post #: 182
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/8/2014 8:39:44 PM   
jdkbph


Posts: 339
Joined: 2/11/2007
From: CT, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: gobadgers

No. The Chinese know that the US will defend Taiwan. No question.



Really? I don't think it's necessarily that straight forward at all. If pro-reunification political elements arose within Taiwan (no matter how suspicious it may appear to outsiders) and, with some semblance of popular backing, were able to seize control, what exactly would we be "defending"? How far would we be willing to go in China's back yard?

Depending on the outcome of this Ukrainian thing, it seems to me something like that may actually be easier (for China) to justify than, say, outright annexation of the Spratleys or taking Senkaku Shoto (Diaoyu Islands).

???

JD

(in reply to gregb41352)
Post #: 183
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/8/2014 9:38:04 PM   
NakedWeasel


Posts: 500
Joined: 1/14/2014
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: jdkbph


quote:

ORIGINAL: gobadgers

No. The Chinese know that the US will defend Taiwan. No question.



Really? I don't think it's necessarily that straight forward at all. If pro-reunification political elements arose within Taiwan (no matter how suspicious it may appear to outsiders) and, with some semblance of popular backing, were able to seize control, what exactly would we be "defending"? How far would we be willing to go in China's back yard?

Depending on the outcome of this Ukrainian thing, it seems to me something like that may actually be easier (for China) to justify than, say, outright annexation of the Spratleys or taking Senkaku Shoto (Diaoyu Islands).

???

JD



Agreed. Actually, I would not be at all surprised to see the Taiwan issue turn out much like present-day Ukraine. There are definitely elements in Taiwan that would welcome reunification with the mainland, and in this climate of capitulation and non-involvement, especially in the face of real danger of extreme losses, I doubt the American people are going to see much need to involve ourselves on China's doorstep.

_____________________________

Though surrounded by a great number of enemies
View them as a single foe
And so fight on!

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Post #: 184
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/8/2014 9:38:07 PM   
mikeCK

 

Posts: 565
Joined: 5/20/2008
Status: offline 		The wild card with Taiwan is whether or not South Korea and Japan help out. Everyone is afraid of China over there.

(in reply to jdkbph)
Post #: 185
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/8/2014 9:42:13 PM   
guanotwozero

 

Posts: 651
Joined: 12/27/2013
Status: offline 		Most political sentiment in Taiwan IS pro-unification - just not while the mainland is a communist one-party state. The KMT, who dominated Taiwanese politics for decades, were originally the government of all China but withdrew to Taiwan during the civil war. Thus both Beijing and Taipei claim to house the official government of all China.

Of course the practicality is that they are two self-governing states, but there is still an expectation that they will reunify one day. Taiwan won't agree to that until the mainland has free politics (and maybe the KMT might win an all-China election), while the mainland continues to reject democracy and still intermittently threatens to force unification by military means.

I DO think the US will defend Taiwan if the mainland ever invaded, though at present Beijing just doesn't have sufficient means to do so. If/when reunification happens by mutual agreement, then everyone will be happy.

This contrasts with the current Ukraine crisis, as Ukraine has no allies who'll defend it militarily. The USA or other nations won't risk war with Russia, but likely will enact punitive sanctions if it goes all the way. What's more, Russia will likely become a pariah nation to many, and Ukraine will get sympathy and diplomatic support. Russia may dominate here militarily, but can't win the soft-power war.

The track record of countries successfully grabbing land since WWII is not good; self-determination often wins out in the end, and it's diplomacy, economics and soft power that are the biggest factors.

(in reply to jdkbph)
Post #: 186
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/8/2014 9:48:24 PM   
NakedWeasel


Posts: 500
Joined: 1/14/2014
Status: offline 		With American backing, and possibly with the involvement of ANZAC, the Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore, and Thailand, the ROKs and Japan would probably be on board. And the Chinese government would certainly have a reason to fear a force like that. A unified PACRIM could completely deny PLAN shipping any access beyond it's home ports. This is a future scenario I'll probably explore. But I really don't want to digress from this discussion...


_____________________________

Though surrounded by a great number of enemies
View them as a single foe
And so fight on!

(in reply to mikeCK)
Post #: 187
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/9/2014 3:45:32 PM   
Figeac

 

Posts: 290
Joined: 7/11/2013
Status: offline 		http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-06/u-s-fighters-circle-baltics-as-putin-fans-fear-of-russia.html

(in reply to NakedWeasel)
Post #: 188
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/9/2014 4:40:04 PM   
NakedWeasel


Posts: 500
Joined: 1/14/2014
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Figeac

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-06/u-s-fighters-circle-baltics-as-putin-fans-fear-of-russia.html



Thanks for the contribution.

Interesting. In the pic on Bloomberg, the F-15C was not carrying any AAW beyond AIM-9s (and probably cannon.) I'm guessing a ferry config? Maybe that jet had just arrived in Lithuania- but wouldn't they have ferried into the AO with at least four AMRAAMs on the conformal hard points?

Anyway. 10 F-15s does not a statement make...

_____________________________

Though surrounded by a great number of enemies
View them as a single foe
And so fight on!

(in reply to Figeac)
Post #: 189
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/9/2014 5:05:17 PM   
AlmightyTallest

 

Posts: 279
Joined: 2/25/2014
Status: offline 		I would not be surprised if there weren't a few Rapid Raptors in the area.

Google "Rapid Raptor Package" in The Aviationist magazine

I can't post links yet

Also getting good info on troop movements, attacks etc. using reddit live, search for "Ukrainian Conflict Live Thread" and you'll get a lot more updates on what's going on, tons of journalists and news pouring into the one site will help with campaign building as well perhaps.

< Message edited by AlmightyTallest -- 3/9/2014 6:06:19 PM >

(in reply to NakedWeasel)
Post #: 190
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/9/2014 5:22:29 PM   
NakedWeasel


Posts: 500
Joined: 1/14/2014
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quote:

ORIGINAL: AlmightyTallest

I would not be surprised if there weren't a few Rapid Raptors in the area.

Google "Rapid Raptor Package" in The Aviationist magazine

I can't post links yet

Also getting good info on troop movements, attacks etc. using reddit live, search for "Ukrainian Conflict Live Thread" and you'll get a lot more updates on what's going on, tons of journalists and news pouring into the one site will help with campaign building as well perhaps.


I hadnt heard of the F-22 package before- though it seems it's just a smaller, more specialized unit, as opposed to the big, multi-role expeditionary packages the USAF can generate to deal with global threats.

I think that if Raptors were there, EVERYONE would know about it. All it would take is one sighting- and there's A LOT of people watching right now.


_____________________________

Though surrounded by a great number of enemies
View them as a single foe
And so fight on!

(in reply to AlmightyTallest)
Post #: 191
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/9/2014 6:34:22 PM   
lowchi


Posts: 421
Joined: 10/14/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: NakedWeasel


I think that if Raptors were there, EVERYONE would know about it. All it would take is one sighting- and there's A LOT of people watching right now.



i think so too. and dont forget the aircraft spotters

http://www.airliners.net/photo/USA---Air/Lockheed-Martin-F-22A/2328379/&sid=d6d9ca98ed9a8a38ed12ca57e3f61390



< Message edited by lowchi -- 3/9/2014 8:00:39 PM >

(in reply to NakedWeasel)
Post #: 192
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/9/2014 6:45:18 PM   
NakedWeasel


Posts: 500
Joined: 1/14/2014
Status: offline 		Heh, who needs the KGB? (FSB)

_____________________________

Though surrounded by a great number of enemies
View them as a single foe
And so fight on!

(in reply to lowchi)
Post #: 193
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 12:22:52 PM   
beserko


Posts: 164
Joined: 2/10/2005
From: The United States Of America
Status: offline 		The fighters are just a "speed bump" like US troops in Korea. If they get hurt we go in (at least that's the theory}

_____________________________

as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns—there are things we do not know we don't know."

(in reply to NakedWeasel)
Post #: 194
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 12:28:30 PM   
beserko


Posts: 164
Joined: 2/10/2005
From: The United States Of America
Status: offline

_____________________________

as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns—there are things we do not know we don't know."

(in reply to beserko)
Post #: 195
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 12:41:02 PM   
beserko


Posts: 164
Joined: 2/10/2005
From: The United States Of America
Status: offline 		The U.S. Navy’s newest and most powerful aircraft carrier has docked in Antalya, Turkey—meaning she is within striking distance of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula. And it appears Russia is deploying anti-ship missiles in response.

USS George H.W. Bush is hauling more than 60 warplanes including no fewer than 40 Hornet and Super Hornet strike-fighters. Bush’s escorting destroyers and cruisers, together packing hundreds of long-range missiles, are presumably nearby. Nuclear attack submarines usually also accompany American flattops on deployment


_____________________________

as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns—there are things we do not know we don't know."

(in reply to beserko)
Post #: 196
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 1:14:55 PM   
Sardaukar


Posts: 9847
Joined: 11/28/2001
From: Finland/Israel
Status: offline 		I wonder if she still has X-47B that was tested on her....

_____________________________

"To meaningless French Idealism, Liberty, Fraternity and Equality...we answer with German Realism, Infantry, Cavalry and Artillery" -Prince von Bülov, 1870-


(in reply to beserko)
Post #: 197
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 1:58:40 PM   
gregb41352

 

Posts: 198
Joined: 10/5/2013
Status: offline 		Given all the open information available, is anyone working on a scenario for this?
I can only contemplate after the current semester is completed.....May :(

(in reply to Sardaukar)
Post #: 198
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 2:06:08 PM   
Sardaukar


Posts: 9847
Joined: 11/28/2001
From: Finland/Israel
Status: offline 		Baloogan is.

_____________________________

"To meaningless French Idealism, Liberty, Fraternity and Equality...we answer with German Realism, Infantry, Cavalry and Artillery" -Prince von Bülov, 1870-


(in reply to gregb41352)
Post #: 199
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 2:17:01 PM   
Sardaukar


Posts: 9847
Joined: 11/28/2001
From: Finland/Israel
Status: offline 		Some information about north Russia from Finnish sources etc.:



Petsamo: 200th Motorized Infantry Brigade (high readiness) and Marine Brigade. In future, plans to form Arctic warfare Spetnatz Brigade there too.

Alakurtti: just few days ago, Putin announced re-opening the base. At least helicopter regiment is planned there. It already houses Border Guard unit etc.

Petroskoi: 4th Infantry Brigade and MVD (Interior Ministry) Brigade.

Kamenka: 138th Motorized Infantry Brigade.

Luga: SSM Brigade (SS-26 Iskander M, SS-21 Totshka)

Vladimirsky Lager: 4th infantry brigade

Pihkova (Pskov): 76th Airborne Division and Spetznatz Brigade.

All these units are ready to deploy in short time.


_____________________________

"To meaningless French Idealism, Liberty, Fraternity and Equality...we answer with German Realism, Infantry, Cavalry and Artillery" -Prince von Bülov, 1870-


(in reply to Sardaukar)
Post #: 200
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 4:45:45 PM   
NakedWeasel


Posts: 500
Joined: 1/14/2014
Status: offline
quote:

Antalya


Thanks for this. This is exactly the same area where I have the Bush CSG operating for Baloogan's scenario. Well within range of Crimea.

_____________________________

Though surrounded by a great number of enemies
View them as a single foe
And so fight on!

(in reply to beserko)
Post #: 201
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 5:07:17 PM   
NakedWeasel


Posts: 500
Joined: 1/14/2014
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Sardaukar

I wonder if she still has X-47B that was tested on her....


I believe the X-47's are all back home at Patuxent River NAS. They weren't really more than testbeds, anyway. I would like to see the production version in massive amounts. A Nimitz-class carrier could carry more than 100 UCAVs.

_____________________________

Though surrounded by a great number of enemies
View them as a single foe
And so fight on!

(in reply to Sardaukar)
Post #: 202
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 6:39:08 PM   
mx1

 

Posts: 76
Joined: 1/16/2014
Status: offline 		In addition to F-16s already sent to Poland, NATO is deploying AWACS planes to Poland and Romania.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iNr2j585W9wz2kPSrKjhcVmaxpGA?docId=2aaa1774-b81b-4cc2-b23e-b35667ca7360

(in reply to NakedWeasel)
Post #: 203
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 6:48:44 PM   
guanotwozero

 

Posts: 651
Joined: 12/27/2013
Status: offline 		Now AWACS are being deployed to Poland and Romania.

BBC report

Edit==

LOL! Beaten to it while I prepared post!

< Message edited by guanotwozero -- 3/10/2014 8:40:09 PM >

(in reply to NakedWeasel)
Post #: 204
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 7:44:32 PM   
guanotwozero

 

Posts: 651
Joined: 12/27/2013
Status: offline 		As the Bush is positioned off southern Turkey and so has a major landmass between it and Crimea, is that an effective measure against Bastion/P-800 missiles?

(in reply to guanotwozero)
Post #: 205
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 8:23:00 PM   
SaneStatistician

 

Posts: 11
Joined: 1/24/2014
Status: offline 		Old news now (ht_tp://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/08/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html):
quote:


...
Secretary of State John Kerry phoned Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Saturday and issued a diplomatic ultimatum, according to a senior U.S. administration official.

"He made clear that continued military escalation and provocation in Crimea or elsewhere in Ukraine, along with steps to annex Crimea to Russia would close any available space for diplomacy, and he urged utmost restraint," the official said.

Kerry said the United States is ready to work with allies to facilitate a Ukraine-Russia dialogue, the official said.
...


Meanwhile, preparations for the Crimean referendum are in full swing...

(in reply to guanotwozero)
Post #: 206
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 8:24:52 PM   
NakedWeasel


Posts: 500
Joined: 1/14/2014
Status: offline 		Actually, it's a question of "range" in this case. The P-800s effective range doesn't even allow them to hit the northern coast of Turkey, let alone it's southern coast line. The CSG is far, far beyond P-800 range.
The biggest (most realistic) threat to the Bush CSG that I can see, would have to be Russian subs in the Med- (number and type completely unknown to me at this time.) or, (much less likely) perhaps a Backfire strike coming out of Syria. In order to pull that off, they'd have to launch from Sochi, do an end-run all the way around Georgia's northern border, around Azerbaijan, and overfly Iran, and then Iraq, just to get into Syria. As Iran probably wouldn't allow use of it airspace, and Iraq obviously wouldn't allow it either, Id say it's a sure bet that Russian Backfires would get shot out of the sky long before landing in Syria. I'd probably take that option off the table completely.

It's a lot of trouble just to start a small nuclear holocaust.

< Message edited by NakedWeasel -- 3/10/2014 9:50:40 PM >

_____________________________

Though surrounded by a great number of enemies
View them as a single foe
And so fight on!

(in reply to guanotwozero)
Post #: 207
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 8:59:55 PM   
NakedWeasel


Posts: 500
Joined: 1/14/2014
Status: offline 		It's come to my attention that the Kuznetsov "carrier" group might be in the Eastern Med. Can anyone confirm?

_____________________________

Though surrounded by a great number of enemies
View them as a single foe
And so fight on!

(in reply to NakedWeasel)
Post #: 208
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 9:08:25 PM   
guanotwozero

 

Posts: 651
Joined: 12/27/2013
Status: offline 		I'm presuming the Bush will have a significant escort, including ASW capability. While ASW is never watertight, the shape of Antalya Basin limits the possible approaches. It looks like Antalya is out of range of Syrian-based SSMs too, which would probably have to overfly Cyprus to even get near. So it seems a good location.

I think it's very unlikely there will be any sort of NATO-Russia spark, but even if it did happen I reckon nukes are well out of the equation as the only result is everyone loses badly.

More likely, if Crimean annexation goes the whole way, the embargoes against Russia may include denial of passage through Turkish waters, bottling up the Black Sea. If so, a flat-top would useful to assist that as well as reassure Turkey.

(in reply to NakedWeasel)
Post #: 209
RE: Ukraine 2014 - 3/10/2014 9:11:10 PM   
mx1

 

Posts: 76
Joined: 1/16/2014
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: NakedWeasel

It's come to my attention that the Kuznetsov "carrier" group might be in the Eastern Med. Can anyone confirm?


Docked at Limassol, Cyprus on Feb 28th for resupply.

http://famagusta-gazette.com/russian-aircraft-carrier-docks-in-cyprus-p22487-69.htm

Left port on March 3rd to "continue its mission in Mediterranean"

http://itar-tass.com/spb-news/1017398


(in reply to NakedWeasel)
Post #: 210
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