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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/6/2014 8:09:30 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

The issue with CD guns during the invasion bonus is that the unload rate is so high that the TF gets everything off in one go and that also limits the disablements of the troops. It's almost like using late war Allied APA/AKA.

GJ landed at Geraldton in the face of 36 x 6" Aussie CD guns and a few other assorted smaller 4" CD guns and still attacked to take the base the following day. He lost a few ships, but not enough to make up for the lost Allied units I had expected to be able to hold out against a weakened landing force.

The loss of four PC is going to hurt. I'm struggling for enough escorts every day.


Aaaaw, and here I was feeling all pleased with myself!


Don't mean to be a downer. Just thinking that before you pile any more on Pago maybe wait until the end of the bonus.

I was as pretty surprised that the guns at Geraldton did virtually nothing to the landing troops, but it was my bad for not thinking of the bonus before defending forward in OZ. As always, mistakes are the best teachers!

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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/6/2014 8:13:06 PM   
JocMeister

 

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Status: offline 		I know I know.. just pulling your leg a bit!

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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/7/2014 8:10:36 AM   
JocMeister

 

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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/10/2014 5:54:01 PM   
JocMeister

 

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Status: offline 		Got a turn back to Tom but I´m to tired (and pissed off) to write the update. Tom fooled me AGAIN. While the price won´t be anything game changing I don´t like when I make stupid mistakes.

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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/10/2014 9:06:42 PM   
BBfanboy


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Status: offline 		Are there any smart mistakes? I need to make some of those myself ...

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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 3:58:56 AM   
Cribtop


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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 6:33:14 AM   
JocMeister

 

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Status: offline 		January 19th to 22nd January
______________________________________________________________________________

AV seems more and more likely for each day. Nothing positive to report

------------------------
DEI
------------------------
Balikpapan, Miri, Brunei and Palembang are now in Japanese hands. None suffered any damage in the capture. Batavia is encircled and Japanese troops are racing down the rest of Java.

------------------------
China
------------------------
The roadblock to Ankang is slowly being whittled down. From 900 AV to 650 in just 2 weeks. 2 DAs, daily bombardment and relentless bombings from the air give me little hope here. There are NO reserves to be had any more. Once Ankang is lost the can threaten Chungking and I will have to abandon Sian and probably southern China as well.

------------------------
SOPAC
------------------------
Stupid, stupid, stupid.

After KB showed up outside Pago Pago I spotted a TF moving NW. I didn´t have a great DL (5 or so) but there was several BBs and CSs spotted in the TF. I was sure this was the KB retiring. It was not.

On the 22nd the KB show up outside Tahiti sinking about 20 xAKs and more critically 10 big TKs. These TKs had almost 100.000 fuel onboard. I´m kicking myself quite badly right now.

------------------------
Overall mood.
------------------------
I´m being absolutely pummeled all over the map. AV is looking very likely and I don´t really know what I can do to avoid it. If I could stalemate China I could possibly stave it off. But Tom will break through before January is up and that will open a floodgate of Japanese troops pouring into the Chungking basin and its 300x multiplier. Add to that the VPs for Chinese troops and I will be in serious problems not even counting the added VPs from other locations.

Any advice or thoughts are welcome at this point! May sound odd but watching Tom play is fascinating. He moves so fast, so focused and don´t make any mistakes. He knows the strengths of the Japanese side and weaknesses of the allies. And he plays them both to the max squeezing every once out of it.




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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 6:46:31 AM   
DOCUP


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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 6:54:18 AM   
JeffroK


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Status: offline 		Isnt it 11 mths before AV is calculated??

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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 7:38:59 AM   
JocMeister

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Isnt it 11 mths before AV is calculated??


Yes it is, but planning to avoid it must begin on the first turn!

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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 7:42:02 AM   
DOCUP


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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 7:56:46 AM   
JocMeister

 

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ORIGINAL: DOCUP

You can do it


Probably not. But I will try!

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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 10:17:01 AM   
Barb


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Status: offline 		Try to play Scen 1 next time ... I doubt he will be anyway near AV without all the extra stuff from Scen 2 ...

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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 10:46:49 AM   
JeffroK


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister


quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Isnt it 11 mths before AV is calculated??


Yes it is, but planning to avoid it must begin on the first turn!


Only 44 days into the war, well over 300 days before the end of 42.

Plus, IMVHO, why play any game like this for points????

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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 10:59:21 AM   
ny59giants


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quote:

Stupid, stupid, stupid.

After KB showed up outside Pago Pago I spotted a TF moving NW. I didn´t have a great DL (5 or so) but there was several BBs and CSs spotted in the TF. I was sure this was the KB retiring. It was not.

On the 22nd the KB show up outside Tahiti sinking about 20 xAKs and more critically 10 big TKs. These TKs had almost 100.000 fuel onboard. I´m kicking myself quite badly right now.


You have enough PBYs to prevent this from happening and AVD/AVs to disband in a base to allow some naval search. Hope you don't mind me piling on with what happened?? When you do something like this, it will hurt for some time.

Auto Victory - I know player play for this, but I don't. For me, its when one side or the other surrenders. For Allies, can I get Japan to surrender before 1 Sept 45?

< Message edited by ny59giants -- 7/11/2014 11:59:22 AM >

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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 11:08:03 AM   
HansBolter


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Status: offline 		Most people here know that I only play the AI and even I never, never put more than 4 tankers in any given TF.

I realize this is 20/20 hindsight and somewhat salt on the wound, but learn from the error.

Dispersion is the key to avoiding catastrophic losses.

And, yes, scenario 2 is easy mode for the Japanese player....avoid it at all costs.

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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 11:48:09 AM   
jokeon

 

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Status: offline 		I am not familiar with game, but it appears that when playing against the best players it is often advisable to adopt a strategy that encourages losses.

In particular, it looks like going for losses in the air war would do you good. The multiplier means even losing two to one you would come out ahead in AV. So send in the fliers and hope for a return.

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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 12:05:53 PM   
Lowpe


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Status: offline 		Trying to find a positive here...maybe he has to rearm the KB?

You have your carriers, your battleships, Pearl's starting planes, and India. No reason for this to have happened other than too fast play. Oh well, move on and disperse and protect your ships across the map and check all your search...it should be outstanding given the start.

From the map there is no search there? None at all. No sub pickets. No surface pickets. No planes. Just a bunch of juicy targets that had no reason to be there without search and protection.











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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 12:35:47 PM   
JocMeister

 

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Status: offline 		Thanks for the posts guys.

Yeah, it was a stupid mistake and shouldn´t have happened. As Micheal says I should have had air search up at Tahiti. But AS is so critical I didn´t want to waste anything at Tahiti as I don´t plan on using the base at all. As Hans points out I also should have settled for a small TF. But lack of escorts is really problematic right now and I have to resort to big convoys for now. Nonetheless I knew KB was in the area (the Tanker TF was originally slated for Pago Pago) and I should have moved them out until 100% sure KB had left the area.

I´ll take the lesson and move on.

JeffK,
Because I want to make a point. Almost every Japanese player claim that its "impossible" to play Japan with PDU OFF. I want to show that its not. At least not when a outstanding Japanese player faces a mediocre allied one.

Lowpe,
Lost most of my subs at Manila. The few I have are still operating at DEI. The S-boats are moving toward OZ though. He should have run out of sorties soon. At least running low as he diverted some of the SCTF protection to hunt shipping instead.

jokeon,
Welcome You are right. With a PDU OFF game I should have some opportunity to inflict losses in the air in a couple of months. Need to get all those 20+ EXP pilots trained first though.

General note regarding AV/VPs.
When I started playing PBEM I was very skeptical of VPs and AV. In fact I never even looked at the VP score other then trying to confirm losses. As I played the game I realized that much of the game make very little sense if you are playing "for fun". For those of you who followed my game vs Erik know this was something that slowly dawned on both of us as we played deeper and deeper into the game. As you play past 43 the "simulation aspect" of the game really crumbles and it becomes nearly impossible to try and keep things "historically plausible". This is why I think many games never make it past 43. But from a VP perspective (and game perspective) things still make sense even in the late war.

At the very least its a motivator to play on for both sides even when things are already decided. I struggled immensely with motivation in 44 and 45. No doubt Erik must have suffered that 10x worse (playing the losing side at that time). Had we played for VPs there is still something to strive for.

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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 12:44:44 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JockMeister

General note regarding AV/VPs.
When I started playing PBEM I was very skeptical of VPs and AV. In fact I never even looked at the VP score other then trying to confirm losses. As I played the game I realized that much of the game make very little sense if you are playing "for fun". For those of you who followed my game vs Erik know this was something that slowly dawned on both of us as we played deeper and deeper into the game. As you play past 43 the "simulation aspect" of the game really crumbles and it becomes nearly impossible to try and keep things "historically plausible". This is why I think many games never make it past 43. But from a VP perspective (and game perspective) things still make sense even in the late war.

At the very least its a motivator to play on for both sides even when things are already decided. I struggled immensely with motivation in 44 and 45. No doubt Erik must have suffered that 10x worse (playing the losing side at that time). Had we played for VPs there is still something to strive for.


Agreed. It would have been a very different game played for VPs. It was the first real PBEM for us both though, and for that reason it maybe was better that it wasn't for points. We were able to try some things, not feel the pressure quite as much, and deal with setbacks more easily. That said I enjoy the motivation plaint for points gives now in my other games. As Japan you're looking for every little thing to conserve, get points from the Allies and not get your forces trapped or lost. As Allied your focused on logistics, getting the base built up and seeing the rewards for that pile slowly on the points tally, then hoping an deploying for some early surprises that could get even points or better to improve the ratio before 1/43.

The darkest days are dying the invasion bonus, and after that it should get better. You know what will come later Jocke, so do the little things now and keep conserving your forces unless given a golden opportunity. Players as aggressive as Mr Kane don't like sitting around doing nothing, so maybe you can lead him slightly astray by pulling back even farther.

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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 3:33:44 PM   
offenseman


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Status: offline 		That is a great point about a/c VP and PDU-off. You will not see the flood of Tojos coming to replace the Oscar and thus your bombers will have an easier time. Also, you are using DBB air values. Zeroes flying in the top tier are maneuverability 2. Yes, only 2. In places like Burma where you can use Hurri IIa and AVG if available, sweep in the top tier. That will help. As Japan I see my opponent doing well in the top tier against A6M2 even with P40e and sometimes B (or early AVG equivalent)

And keep your chin up! For examples: One lucky torpedo hit that sinks a CV or BB and AV is setback a lot.

As Erik said, pull back and let his impatience work for you. Get those Buffaloes off your CVs and set up an ambush. If you loss the battle and AV happens, you think that will not be a change and you get the ships back in mid 43. If you win, AV never happens for him at all.

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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 3:47:03 PM   
offenseman


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

At the very least its a motivator to play on for both sides even when things are already decided. I struggled immensely with motivation in 44 and 45. No doubt Erik must have suffered that 10x worse (playing the losing side at that time). Had we played for VPs there is still something to strive for.


My last game with LoBaron and RobBrennanUK went poorly for me. It was a 2v2 that went bad early and I lost my partner in 6/42 after he ran the economy into the ground. Adjusting to that and having to pick up the pieces of trying to figure out what he was doing in his areas of responsibility was troublesome. I made several mistakes during that time that really hurt and effectively put me into a situation where I was at least 6 months behind schedule. In other words, places that should have been mine never were and they became major bases to start reconquering areas far too soon. We were not playing for AV at any time and by late 43 it was apparent that I was getting smoked badly. I no longer recall if they achieved AV in 1/44 or 1/45 but we played until 1/45 despite them probably being bored at times and me being depressed every time I loaded a 001 file to watch. I owed them that much and along the way we all learned more and got to see action all the way through 44 including several major late war fleet actions, and an allied blitz of China.

The result of all of it was we started game two, this time as a 2v1 Scen 1 DBB-C. Again we play without AV.

My long winder point is that it is sometimes not the road you travel but what you see on the journey.

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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 3:55:42 PM   
Cribtop


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Status: offline 		Joc and Obvert, not trying to derail the thread, but I'm curious about the comments about the breakdown of the "simulation aspect" you mentioned in your late war game. What, specifically, do you mean? Did the numbers just get so big that things went haywire a la GreyJoy vs Rader, or was it more than that? Just curious.

As for the game, focus your efforts on delaying the destruction of China. Tough to do but that to me is the biggest VP danger you face right now. I would avoid panic elsewhere on the map as you have 11 months, but as the game enters Summer I would have a backup Hail Mary plan in place if you feel auto-vic is still in the cards. Something non-cheesy but surprising you could do to re-take a few key bases right at the Death of December. For the most part though, just hold the lines you've established and accept losses to avoid AV. One thing to consider is that you too are PDU OFF. Are there ways to engage with groups using inferior a/c that would help VP ratios? What about a strat bombing campaign at Magwe? I also note that Mr. Kane is studiously avoiding NOPAC. Might be a place where you can stir up some trouble on the cheap.



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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 4:11:14 PM   
offenseman


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Joc and Obvert, not trying to derail the thread, but I'm curious about the comments about the breakdown of the "simulation aspect" you mentioned in your late war game. What, specifically, do you mean? Did the numbers just get so big that things went haywire a la GreyJoy vs Rader, or was it more than that? Just curious.

As for the game, focus your efforts on delaying the destruction of China. Tough to do but that to me is the biggest VP danger you face right now. I would avoid panic elsewhere on the map as you have 11 months, but as the game enters Summer I would have a backup Hail Mary plan in place if you feel auto-vic is still in the cards. Something non-cheesy but surprising you could do to re-take a few key bases right at the Death of December. For the most part though, just hold the lines you've established and accept losses to avoid AV. One thing to consider is that you too are PDU OFF. Are there ways to engage with groups using inferior a/c that would help VP ratios? What about a strat bombing campaign at Magwe? I also note that Mr. Kane is studiously avoiding NOPAC. Might be a place where you can stir up some trouble on the cheap.




+1 on the strat bombing. Up in Burma even Wellingtons can do good work against Oscars.

Another idea is to send the USN CV fleet to the IO. and strat bomb Palembang with it. At the least you get him reacting to you.

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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 5:01:20 PM   
JocMeister

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: offenseman
My long winder point is that it is sometimes not the road you travel but what you see on the journey.


And that is a very good point indeed! I guess it will depend on what kind of personality you are. I´m not one of those who play to the very end. I lose complete motivation the second its apparent I will win. CIV is a good example of this where I almost always end the game before I have actually won. This is where I struggle without playing for VPs. If I know a Japanese draw is still in the mix that would drive me on. When playing "for fun" I had to invent motivators along the road. But its not the same incentive for me at least.

But each to his own. Many people on this board play "historic games" for years and gets loads of fun out of it and that is the main point.


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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 5:21:18 PM   
JocMeister

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Joc and Obvert, not trying to derail the thread, but I'm curious about the comments about the breakdown of the "simulation aspect" you mentioned in your late war game. What, specifically, do you mean? Did the numbers just get so big that things went haywire a la GreyJoy vs Rader, or was it more than that? Just curious.


Basically yes. In the end with had thousands and thousands of planes focused on a very small area of the map things went kind of weird at times. Or really weird to be honest. At least it mostly hit us both equally hard. But it was immensely frustrating at times. Even more so when trying to maintain a semblance of "historical plausibility"

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop
As for the game, focus your efforts on delaying the destruction of China. Tough to do but that to me is the biggest VP danger you face right now. I would avoid panic elsewhere on the map as you have 11 months, but as the game enters Summer I would have a backup Hail Mary plan in place if you feel auto-vic is still in the cards. Something non-cheesy but surprising you could do to re-take a few key bases right at the Death of December. For the most part though, just hold the lines you've established and accept losses to avoid AV. One thing to consider is that you too are PDU OFF. Are there ways to engage with groups using inferior a/c that would help VP ratios? What about a strat bombing campaign at Magwe? I also note that Mr. Kane is studiously avoiding NOPAC. Might be a place where you can stir up some trouble on the cheap.


Thanks for the tips. I agree China will be a very important factor. But Tom knows what he is doing and I expect to lose everything short of the mountains by summer. After his initial rush he has now shifted focus more to the East of Sian while ever so slowly wearing down my roadblocks. The Ankang roadblock has lost 150 RAW AV in just 12 days due to bombarding and air attacks. And with no reinforcements available he will break through any day now.

If he fails a DA his simply put them into rest mode and continue to bomb away for 2 weeks or so. He then tries again. Slowly chipping away at my forces. Pretty much the same thing I did as the allies in 44 and 45.

Its a good idea to try a hail Mary in late 42. If I´m going to lose I might as well go out with a bang. Provoking a CV battle somewhere perhaps? Or doing a GJ?

Right now I don´t have any place where I can engage him in the air. In China I lack supply and airbases. Elsewhere I simply don´t have the range. I hope this will change as the front lines creep closer in Burma/India/SOPAC. I can´t even get the AVG in to action right now. He is still sitting outside Rangoon and as I mentioned in China I can´t reach him.

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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 5:28:35 PM   
SqzMyLemon


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

One thing to consider is that you too are PDU OFF. Are there ways to engage with groups using inferior a/c that would help VP ratios? What about a strat bombing campaign at Magwe? I also note that Mr. Kane is studiously avoiding NOPAC. Might be a place where you can stir up some trouble on the cheap.


This is a great comment and those expressed by offenseman. I know your views on PDU-off Jocke and while I don't agree with your reasoning, it is something you should be taking advantage of. You will be facing limited numbers of Tojo's and dealing mostly with Oscar's in 1942 to mid-43. You should be planning accordingly. Get your pilot training up and look to contest the air war in my opinion. This is where you have the best chance to make up ground in VP's until the Allied naval and LCU deficits can be addressed. I also think you are too pessimistic about China. You know yourself from our game how Chinese units in 3x terrain with SL's can halt the Japanese advance. That will buy you the time you need to stave off AV elsewhere. You know the capabilities of the Allies from your game against Erik, use what you learned from that game and take it to Mr. Kane. You'll find he's good, but not Superman, he's playing the Japanese after all.


< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 7/11/2014 7:05:52 PM >

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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 6:30:04 PM   
poodlebrain

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister


Right now I don´t have any place where I can engage him in the air. In China I lack supply and airbases. Elsewhere I simply don´t have the range. I hope this will change as the front lines creep closer in Burma/India/SOPAC. I can´t even get the AVG in to action right now. He is still sitting outside Rangoon and as I mentioned in China I can´t reach him.
Why is he out of range? Because he wants to be. How can you make him pay for this? Ground attacks. Destroying devices earns VPs just as well as destroying airplanes. Force the Japanese to bring fighter cover over areas where they will be in range of your fighters.

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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 8:02:03 PM   
Amoral

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK



Only 44 days into the war, well over 300 days before the end of 42.

Plus, IMVHO, why play any game like this for points????


The idea that wars are fought to the bitterest end is a pretty recent innovation. Japan thought they could come to an agreement with the US after the US became war-weary. Japan's real life plan can be equated to "achieve autovictory on points in 1943". Without that goal Japan's best choice is to surrender on Dec 7 1941.

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RE: Return of the Sheep! - 7/11/2014 10:20:41 PM   
JeffroK


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Amoral


quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK



Only 44 days into the war, well over 300 days before the end of 42.

Plus, IMVHO, why play any game like this for points????


The idea that wars are fought to the bitterest end is a pretty recent innovation. Japan thought they could come to an agreement with the US after the US became war-weary. Japan's real life plan can be equated to "achieve autovictory on points in 1943". Without that goal Japan's best choice is to surrender on Dec 7 1941.


I cant see that the US , Commonwealth & Chinese would ever have found any terms to come to peace with the japanese.
This "war-weary" comment about the USA always surprises me, they had a short WW1 which didnt place a heavy drain on its manpower, only entered WW2 after 27 months of world conflict and in the big picture saw little land conflict until the recovery of the Phillipines (I qualify this as 2 Divs or greater) 80 years earlier it had fought amongst itself for more than 4 years and over 600,000 deaths, I cant see how the loss of a few easily replace Combat ships, some islands that the average American had never heard of or even the collapse of China would have seen the Allies scurrying to the ceasefire tables.

VP & AV are artificial & irrelevant to the campaign, maybe relevant if you only want to play for a year of game time, but as many have recommended, force the player into stupid, short term strategies "just to beat AV" and is wholly to the advantage of the JFB who can, with his 100% knowledge of the Allied capacities, play a strategy to amass points rather than a secure strategic position.

Plus, we have reviewed just about every piece of data in the game, are the VP values correct??? What value has a low lying piece of coral atoll that no-one has heard of??
End of whinge.

< Message edited by JeffK -- 7/11/2014 11:22:12 PM >

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