Feltan
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Joined: 12/5/2006
From: Kansas
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Hello Gentlemen,
Please find attached the scenario "Havana Daydreamin (2017) v1.5" for testing. Comments and AARs welcome.
Regards,
Feltan
Pertinent Information:
HAVANA DAYDREAMIN (2017)
Scenario Date: September 2017
Scenario Created: August 2014, v1.5; tested on CMANO v1.04
Playable Sides: United States
Scenario Design: Feltan
Russia is on the move. In the waning “lame duck” years of the current U.S. Presidential Administration, the Russian Prime Minister is intent on leveraging the growing desire for isolation among American politicians after a decade of war in the Middle East. To divert American attention from the ongoing and developing issues in Europe –- especially with regard to the Ukraine and Baltic States – Russia develops deep and close ties with several countries in the Western Hemisphere. These relationships culminate in the announcement of a new alliance, the Havana Pact. This provocative move is essentially ignored by the Presidential administration which is preoccupied with internal scandal, domestic issues, an unfriendly legislature and a looming election. A new American President is sworn into office in January 2017, and American foreign policy pivots rapidly. The context for this scenario is as follows:
2014
• Diplomatic and military influence of Russia is on the rise. (http://www.chicagonow.com/windy-city-young-republicans/2014/03/russia-ready-to-stare-down-us-nato-eu-over-ukraine/)
• Cuba and Russia team up to support Venezuelan regime. (http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/opinion/2014/03/21/opinion-russian-missiles-repositioned-in-caracas-are-ominous-sign/)
• Russia announces increased military ties with Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. (http://americasquarterly.org/content/russia-military-power-in-latin-america)
• Coordination and groundwork takes place for Russia to establish air and naval bases in the Western Hemisphere. (http://www.globalresearch.ca/cold-war-proporaganda-russias-secret-military-bases-in-the-western-hemisphere/5377690)
• Russia writes-off $32 Billion of Cuban debt. (http://online.wsj.com/articles/russia-writes-off-cuba-debt-1405083869)
• Russian aid to Nicaragua extraordinary and unconditional. (http://nicaraguadispatch.com/2014/04/nicaragua-looks-to-russia-to-modernize-army/)
• In light of events in Ukraine, an increasingly isolated Russia looks to Latin America. (http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2014/07/10/isolated-over-ukraine-putin-hunts-for-new-allies-in-latin-america-amid-growing/)
• Russian arms sales to Latin America escalate. (http://www.russianhelicopters.aero/en/press/publications/5694.html)
• Russia and Cuba agree to reopen the dormant SIGINT site at Lourdes, southwest of Havana. (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28338996)
• Russia opens an extensive Latin America training center near the Ural Mountains for army officers and foreign pilots.
2015
• Cuba grants extended berthing rights to Russian civilian and military shipping at the port of Mariel on the Northwestern side of the country.
• After repeated and continued disappointing operational results and escalating costs, the US Joint Strike Fighter (JSF, F-35) program is cancelled as a cost savings measure. Plans are initiated to extend the service life of F-15’s, F-16’s and F/A-18’s.
• The Havana Pact is formalized and announced.
o Russia and Cuba form a military alliance.
o Nicaragua and Venezuela have a loosely defined military cooperation agreement with the Havana Pact.
o Nicaragua, Venezuela, Brazil and Argentina join the economic cooperation portion of agreement.
o China, North Korea and Iran establish trade relations with the Havana Pact.
• Russia dispatches economic, military and technical assistance teams to Havana Pact member nations.
• Wall Street shuts down for an unprecedented eight business days due to a breach of computer security and open manipulation of certain stocks values.
• China sells several veteran naval vessels to Cuba.
• Cuba starts a modernization program for its military, and begins by retiring all aging MIG-21 fighters along with other obsolete equipment.
• Customs and Border Patrol report significant increase of drug trafficking into the United States via ship, aircraft and submersible drug subs.
• The Baltic States make an appeal to NATO for protection in response to Russian aggressive action and threats.
• The Cold War airfield at San Antonio de los Banos in Cuba is entirely refurbished and becomes the air hub for Russian air operations and advanced pilot training in the Havana Pact.
• A combined Air Regiment of Havana Pact member nations is formed.
2016
• The Russian Navy establishes a repair facility and increased infrastructure at the Cuban port of Mariel.
• China sells early warning radar, weaponry and communications electronics to Cuba.
• The United States Mint announces another redesign of the $100 bill to thwart increased and sophisticated counterfeit operations.
• The Havana Pact signs an extended and extensive economic cooperation agreement with China, North Korea and Iran.
• Additional direct military aid to Cuba by Russia is announced with the intent of creating three modern ground combat brigade teams along with air and naval capability.
• US intelligence is certain that numerous advanced air defense SAM units are now becoming operational in Cuba.
• The North American Cell phone network becomes non-operational for several days due to a family of mobile phone computer viruses that cause phones to autonomously broadcast continuously creating an environment-wide denial of service.
• Iran sells several small diesel-electric mini submarines to Cuba along with associated logistical, training and technical assistance teams.
• The November elections in the US result in a new Presidential administration with vastly different policies and world outlook than the incumbent administration. This is a foreign relations nightmare as diplomats across the globe anticipate significant departure from the policies during the last decade.
• Russia provides advanced aircraft to the rapidly growing Cuban Air Force.
• By the end of the year, it is becoming increasingly clear that the Havana Pact, in addition to its overt purpose, is becoming a front for narcotics trafficking into the US. Analysis suggests that the hard currency generated by these illegal activities has become a vital component of the economies of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela.
2017
• The new US Presidential administration is sworn into office on 20 January. Along with a now friendly and cooperative legislature, the agenda is aggressive and includes:
o English is declared the national language and all federal business, with the exception of foreign relations, must be conducting in English.
o The much debated Affordable Care Act has 90% of its provisions repealed.
o A barrier along Southern Border of the United States starts construction with high priority.
o Corporate income tax, which is among the highest in the world, is reduced to zero and the economy jump starts in anticipation.
o The administration invokes the Monroe Doctrine and demands a halt to the rapidly increasing military build-up in Cuba.
• The Russian base at Mariel matures into a fully fledged Naval Base replete with refueling, repair, command, communication, medical and replenishment capabilities.
• NATO with strong US backing reinforces Poland and the Baltic States. The previously suspended ABM sites are reinstated.
• There is a major electrical utility failure in Southwest Virginia that blacks-out portions of the East Coast of the US. A covertly staged cascading failure of Dominion Resources’ power plants causes too much redirected power on the main electrical transmission trunk between Virginia and North Carolina causing about 60 miles of high voltage line to essentially turn into a light bulb and melt.
• The unending tide of illegal immigration into the US appears to slow to a trickle after the Southern Wall nears completion and after several hundred illegal immigrants with suspected criminal gang affiliation are placed on military transport by the US Government and unceremoniously deposited in Liberia.
• To allay fears of a modern Cuban missile crisis, the Havana Pact nations state that no nuclear weapons will be stored or deployed in the region.
• American cities become inundated with designer drugs such as Ecstasy, Molly and other EDM club drugs.
• August: A ground border clash in Estonia with Russian forces escalates for several hours into nearly open combat until both sides withdraw. Russian artillery dominates the battle, and Estonian casualties, both military and civilian, are heavy.
• August: Feeling embolden by NATO support, and feeling stung by the lop sided clash earlier in the month, a combined Baltic States’ combat brigade conducts a retaliatory strike across the border and catches a forward deployed Russian regiment in garrison posture. The Russians are routed and suffer a humiliating defeat in a lightening four hour battle. The Russian humiliation is laid bare with hundreds of videos posted on You Tube.
• September: Worldwide tensions increase; rhetoric by both Russian and American politicians reaches new levels – there is precious little call for restraint by either side. Select units are mobilized from the reserves of all affected nations.
• September: Russian forces build up along the border of the Baltic States. NATO reinforces.
• 18 September: The West is shocked by the outcome of an air skirmish in Latvia as four NATO F-16’s flying along the border are shot down in air-to-air combat with Russian fighters without inflicting any loss to the Russian forces.
• 19 September: A United States AWACS plane is shot down – NATO fighter cover is spoofed and vectored to a feint threat as other Russian fighters on afterburner bore straight for the doomed AWACS. This wasn’t an accident; it was clearly a planned and well executed operation. Russia maintains silence as NATO countries protest and seek redress via the UN.
<US BRIEFING>
HAVANA DAYDREAMIN (2017)
You are the commander of the United States Southern Command (SOUTHCOM). You report directly to the Secretary of Defense (SecDef). Major subordinate commands to SOUTHCOM for this operation include: US 4th Fleet, NSF Mayport, Florida; US 12th Air Force, Davis-Monthan AFB, Arizona; US Army South, Ft. Sam Houston, TX; US Coast Guard, Seventh District, Miami, Florida.
You have relocated your command flag from office space outside of Miami to NSF Mayport to take advantage of C3 infrastructure located there, and to leverage 4th Fleet staff. It is around midnight local time. The 20th of September 2017 is fast approaching, and already you know that you are going to have a bad day.
The bad news keeps rolling in:
Russia, via the Havana Pact, has essentially turned Cuba into an unsinkable aircraft carrier athwart the entrance to the Gulf of Mexico. This situation has deep strategic implications. The port of New Orleans and the Port of Houston are two of the ten busiest ports in the world by cargo volume. Out of the top ten sea ports in the United States seven are located on the Gulf of Mexico. Failing to secure safe sea passage and freedom of the seas to and from the Gulf of Mexico will have a large, immediate and devastating economic impact on the United States. War with the Havana Pact puts all this at risk.
Open hostilities with Russia in the Baltic States area have essentially commenced. There was no bright line crossed, rather one incident drifted and escalated into another. Within the last few hours, a US AWACS was shot down over the Baltic Sea with all aboard lost. This may be a tipping point event, but as of right now there has been no combat in your area of operation.
The USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) was the flagship of Carrier Strike Group 10 transitioning to U.S. 4th Fleet control. However, yesterday, she suffered an extensive non-combat casualty from fire and ordnance explosion in the hanger area after clearing port at Norfolk. She is returning to Norfolk for repairs under her own power, but her embarked air assets cannot be redeployed due to the nature of the ship’s damage. The remaining escorts have been reorganized as Surface Task Force 4.10, and are enroute to your area of operation.
Within the last few hours the electronic spectrum used for radio communication has become nearly unusable. Active jammers in Cuba have come on line. Alternate means of communication to military assets are effective, but contact with merchant shipping and non-military receivers are spotty at best.
Lastly, there is a large and ominous tropical depression located west/southwest of the Leeward Islands. It is projected to become a tropical storm within 48 hours, and progress into a hurricane and track into the Gulf of Mexico within the next four days. Merchant shipping is vacating the area; small ships and pleasure craft are seeking harbor, and gale warning flags are flying. Sea State: 6 (Beaufort scale); warm seasonable temperatures; heavy overcast with rain and thunder storms predominate across the area.
A significant portion of your command consists of Reserve and National Guard assets. These units are fully mobilized and mission capable. Additionally, assigned Coast Guard assets are currently conducting localized patrols; these assets may be diverted to other missions at your discretion.
Logistically, your command is in fairly good shape. With massive reinforcements headed to Europe, the supply chain is having problems keeping up in some areas. The rapid escalation of world events, and subsequent overseas deployment of many assets, have resulted in more than a few SNAFU situations. Several munitions are not in abundant supply; you have a gross excess of aviation fuel, and for some unknown reason your command just received ten pallets loaded with commercial automotive spark plugs.
The tip of your spear is NAS Key West which lies about 90 miles from Cuba. This is an advanced training facility in peace time. Elements that were located there for training have been hurriedly organized, supplied and equipped for combat over the last two weeks. The transition from training to combat-ready is complete.
Commander, your missions in order of priority are:
• Protect the Continental United States (CONUS) from attack.
• Protect United States and neutral shipping transiting to and from the Gulf of Mexico.
• In the case of open hostilities with the Havana Pact, your mission will expand to include:
o Eliminate Havana Pact ability to strike CONUS.
o Degrade or eliminate Havana Pact ability to conduct ASuW against US or neutral merchant shipping.
o Conduct SEAD and AAW operations to gain Air Superiority over Havana Pact countries.
o Conduct operations to render Havana Pact airfields in Cuba mission ineffective.
o Avoid inflicting civilian casualties.
o Be prepared, on order, for other contingency missions.
United States Order of Battle:
Major Bases:
NAS Key West (KNQX)
Det., VFA-106 (Strike Fighter Squadron, Gladiators) (12 x F/A-18E Super Hornet)
Det., VFA-122 (Strike Fighter Squadron, Flying Eagles) (12 x F/A-18E Super Hornet)
Det., VMFAT-101 (Marine Fighter Tactical Squadron, Sharpshooters) (12 x F/A-18D Hornet)
Det., VAQ-129 (Electronic Attack Squadron, Vikings) (6 x EA-18G Growler)
VFC-111 (Fighter Squadron Composite, Sun Downers) (18 x F-5, Tiger-II)
Barksdale AFB (KBAD)
20th Bomb Squadron (Buccaneers) (8 x B-52H Stratofortress)
Dyess AFB (KDYS)
9th Bomb Squadron (Bats) (8 x B-1B Lancer)
Tyndall AFB (KPAM)
Det., 43rd Fighter Squadron (Hornets) (12 x F-22A Raptor)
Det., 95th Fighter Squadron (Boneheads) (12 x F-22A Raptor)
Naval Station Mayport (KNRB)
NAS Jacksonville (KNIP)
VP-10 (Patrol Squadron, Red Lancers) (8 x P-8 Poseidon)
MacDill AFB (KMCF)
Det., 63rd Air Refueling Squadron (Flying Jennies) (Air Force Reserve) (4 x KC-35 Stratotanker)
Det., 128th Airborne Command and Control Squadron (ACCS) (Alley Cats) (Georgia Air National Guard) (4 x E-8C Joint STARS)
Det., 970th Airborne Air Control Squadron (AACS) (Thumper) (Oklahoma Air National Guard) (4 x E-3 Sentry)
Homestead Air Reserve Base (KHST)
93rd Fighter Squadron (Fighting Makos) (Florida Air National Guard) (24 x F-16C, Falcon)
159th Fighter Squadron (Jaguars) (Florida Air National Guard) (24 x F-15C Eagle)
Coast Guard Air Station Miami (4 x HH-65A Dolphin, 4 x HC-144A Ocean Sentry)
Forces at Sea:
Surface Action Group (SAG), Task Force (TF) 4.10:
USS Gettysburg (CG-64) (Flag)
USS San Jacinto (CG-56)
USS Mason (DDG-87)
USS Bulkeley (DDG-84)
Surface Action Group (SAG), Task Force (TF) 4.20:
USS Farragut (DDG-99) (Flag)
USS Carney (DDG-64)
Surface Action Group (SAG) (ASW), Task Force (TF) 4.30
USS Independence (LCS-2) (Flag)
USS Coronado (LCS-4)
Surface Action Group (SAG) (ASW), Task Force (TF) 4.40
USS Jackson (LCS-6) (Flag)
USS Montgomery (LCS-8)
Submarines:
USS New Mexico (SSN-779)
USS Springfield (SSN-761)
Coast Guard Cutters:
USCGC ALLIGATOR (WPB 87372)
USCGC CHANDELEUR (WPB 1319)
USCGC DOLPHIN (WPB 87354)
USCGC MARLIN (WPB 87304)
USCGC KEY BISCAYNE (WPB 1339)
USCGC SITKINAK (WPB 1329)
USCGC KNIGHT ISLAND (WPB 1348)
USCGC RICHARD ETHERIDGE (WPC 1102)
USCGC SHRIKE (WPB 87342)
USCGC PAUL CLARK (WPC 1106)
****************************************
Designer Notes:
1. The US Base at Guantanamo is not modeled. The CMANO engine does not adequately address the scale of ground combat that would likely take place.
2. The scenario has a variable event driven end times.
3. System performance will obviously vary depending on your computer. In general, this scenario slows down during the peak of activity, but performance increases dramatically after the first hour or two of game time.
4. Additionally, during testing, I noted severe slow-down as large cruise missile launches approached the Havana Pact air-defense radars. The engine cranked through these slow periods, but it was tedious. After the radar net is degraded, this problem did not occur again in any significant manner.
5. Pay close attention to message traffic and follow orders.
6. It is helpful if in Game Options, you have “Special Messages” selected to “Raise Pop-Up.”
7. Good luck and good hunting Commander!
Cultural Interlude:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJtVfBpMyW4
 Attachment (1)
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Havana Daydreamin (2017) v1.5 -- testing now! - 
RE: Havana Daydreamin (2017) v1.5 -- testing now! - 
- should have kept them on the ground for a while, another Hornet while in the landing pattern, F-15’s coming in to give the Hornet’s a hand. The FrogFeet got two more ships. Am going to test East or West Cuba for defences, cannot see the Havana area for the number of red facilities in the area - It'll have to be like pealing an onion to get in. 
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